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Next Australian Recession
When do you believe the next Australian Recession will occur?
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Total Votes: 558
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post Posted: Apr 6 2017, 09:38 AM
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Ah, the wisdom of crowds - in 2007, the largest cohort 45% selected "No recession in next 4 years" in this rather old thread

This Is Why Australia Hasn't Had a Recession in Over 25 Years
by Michael Heath, Bloomberg
Australia is close to seizing the global crown for the longest streak of economic growth thanks to a mixture of policy guile and outrageous fortune. But the nation is creaking under the weight of its own success.

While growth is being underpinned by population gains and resource exports to China, failure to spur productivity has meant stagnant living standards and electoral discontent; a property bubble fueled by record-low interest rates has driven household debt to levels that threaten financial stability; and a timid government facing political gridlock could lose the nation's prized AAA rating as early as May because of spiraling budget deficits.

Australia's last recession -- defined locally as two straight quarters of contraction -- occurred in 1991 and was a devastating conclusion to eight years of reform designed to create an open, flexible and competitive economy. But it also proved cathartic, paving the way for a low-inflation, productivity-driven expansion......

"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
post Posted: Jul 16 2007, 12:28 PM
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Wherever businessmen gather the talk turns to the present prosperity in america, how long it will last and what will follow it. periods of prosperity like the present always have one accompaniment. always it happens that a considerable number of people think this particular prosperity will not end, that there will never be another panic or another depression they are always wrong, they will be wrong this time.

NEW YORK HERALD november 1925

Said 'Thanks' for this post: marwoode  
post Posted: Jul 12 2007, 10:03 PM
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In reply to: jaolsa on Wednesday 27/06/07 10:19am

hi jaolsa... the trick of fobbing off dodgy investments to pension funds is not new in America... one classic example is the 1994 "Tequila Crisis" - there is a good book about that crisis called "FIASCO" (which stands for Fixed Income Annual Sporting Clays Outing) which is worth a read to help get your head around the sort of crazy derivative products that are out there... here is a link to it...

It seems to me that Mums & Dads of the world are the ones who pay the bill at the end of the day... when did Aussie Banks start charging fees with gay abandon? After they had lost money in the late 80's commercial property wipe-out (the one that nearly toppled Westpac).

Recessions & depressions are generally about working through debt hangovers from preceding booms... what scares me is the amount of debt out there now - it is a great party whilst the music is playing, but the next morning (when it comes) will be a nasty hangover~!!

post Posted: Jun 27 2007, 10:19 AM
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In reply to: blowout preventer on Tuesday 26/06/07 05:36pm

just doing some reading on bear stearns this morning and came across this old article about b.s. offloading some of cdo's to pensions funds (pension funds being being one of the major holders (just can't bring myself to say investors) of this product.

imo, that's just one of the ingredients needed for economic and social disaster.

just thinking about it......the united states, like most other countries, has an ageing population where in years to come, they've got about one working age person for every retiree .....and u.s. pension funds are throwing away peoples future means for surviving retirement on absolutely worthless products.

as a mother of three young children, is it too much to hope that the chinese government can hold it together if the united states collapses under the weight of its national debt and economic/political mismanagement? only then can we perhaps escape the worst of a recession - that is, only if the australian government is wise enough to think about our economic prosperity rather than allegiance to old alliances.


June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, is hawking the riskiest portions of collateralized debt obligations to public pension funds.

At a sales presentation of the bank's CDOs to 50 public pension fund managers in a Las Vegas hotel ballroom, Jean Fleischhacker, Bear Stearns senior managing director, tells fund managers they can get a 20 percent annual return from the bottom level of a CDO.

blowout prevente...
post Posted: Jun 26 2007, 05:36 PM
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In reply to: Wysiwyg on Friday 22/06/07 06:33pm

devilsmiley.gif The end will come all of a sudden , least we forget 1987 etc.,.
The cracks are being smoothed over atm , but they are there , and no body wants to see ...

Wise will hold lotsa cash , as things will be cheap , and we will load up for 2nd half to late 2008

2/3 cash atm , going slowly 90%.


post Posted: Jun 22 2007, 06:33 PM
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In the year 2031.


post Posted: Jun 22 2007, 06:19 PM
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In reply to: rotuma on Friday 22/06/07 05:25pm

After the Beijing Olympics which could coincide with peek oil,
plus coinciding with Aus becoming a Republic! and the world realising
that global warming is caused by global swarming, in other words when the penny drops:

On or just before 1st Jan 2009.

Fortunately I am normally wrong in my predictions.

post Posted: Jun 22 2007, 05:25 PM
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In reply to: bunyip2 on Friday 22/06/07 02:54pm

Depends on who wins the next election! puke.gif

"More gold has been mined from the thoughts of men than has ever been taken from the Earth ..." Napoleon Hill
post Posted: Jun 22 2007, 03:37 PM
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Three new polls have been created today:

When do you believe the next Australian Recession will occur?

Does share ownership by management effect your trading ?

Will Large Cap or Small Cap Australian Equities perform better in 2007 ?

The most active poll (the one with the most votes) will be moved to the main page on Monday.

Happy voting

post Posted: Jun 22 2007, 02:54 PM
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"Ah" If we had the right Crystal Ball. No one knows ! b.


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