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RHC, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Oct 10 2019, 08:54 AM
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QUOTE
Ramsay Health Care Limited (ASX: RHC)

The private hospital operator has gone on a bit of a rollercoaster over the past couple of years. Private health insurance affordability is troubling for younger policyholders, but there is growing healthcare demand for non-urgent operations because of the ageing population in the western world.

The European Capio acquisition is useful for earnings diversification, but I liked reading recently that Ramsay is looking for bolt-on acquisitions to expand its out-of-hospital care.

If Ramsay steadily becomes just a generalised healthcare business rather than just private hospitals then I think that would future-proof the business further and could make it one for hold for a long time to come.
MF



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 16 2019, 07:00 PM
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QUOTE
The Paul Ramsay Foundation is offloading part of its stake in the country’s largest private hospital operator, Ramsay Healthcare, in a deal worth more than $1.36 billion. The block trade is understood to be the largest in more than two years, with JPMorgan and UBS working on the deal.

Shares were being sold through a book build unfolding after the market closed Monday. The trade has been underwritten at a $61.80 floor price and bids called for in 20c increments, with a ceiling price of $63.80. The deal involves 22 million Ramsay Healthcare shares, representing 10.9 per cent of the company.

Since the start of the year, speculation had been mounting that the Paul Ramsay Foundation would sell down part of what in March was a $4bn interest in the company. The stake has increased in value with Ramsay’s share price this year being on an upward climb. A year ago the shares were trading around $55.

The Paul Ramsay Foundation inherited a major interest in Ramsay Health Care following the death of its founder, Paul Ramsay in 2014. At that time, the foundation, which supports charitable causes in Australia aiming to identify the root causes of disadvantage, held about 36 per cent of the company.

It had already sold down some of its interest in 2014, divesting about 2.2 per cent of its shares in a deal worth $224.4m. At that time, the trade was handled through Deutsche Bank, with the company said to be close to Hong Kong-based banker James McMurdo, who previously worked at Goldman Sachs.

One school of thought had been that the company could divest half of its interest, which would release about $2bn worth of cash to diversify into other investments. When the foundation secured the stake it was thought to be worth about $3.3bn.

Shares in Ramsay closed at $65.20

meantime, in the Little League
QUOTE
Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC)
Ramsay is another stock that has been delivering growth and income to investors for years, through its portfolio of private hospitals that are amongst the best in the country. This company is one of only a handful that can boast an increased dividend every year since the turn of the century. In addition to this stellar income performance, RHC shares have grown from $1 a share in January 2000 to today’s price of $65.16 – a return of 6,400% over nearly 20 years.

The same tailwinds that explained my bullishness on Medibank also apply to Ramsay – our ageing population should increase reliance on the private health system over the coming decades as Medicare comes under increasing pressure. These tailwinds, together with Ramsay’s superlative record on dividend payments, make this stock another fantastic company to hold for the future.

Foolish takeaway
In my opinion, both of these companies are among the best stocks the ASX has to offer. A history of rising income matched by capital growth is an important indicator of the quality of the underlying company, so in my view, both Medibank and Ramsay have demonstrated their worth in spades
- Motley Fool



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 6 2018, 01:20 PM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Mar 6 2018, 11:43 AM

Expensive places to run, hospitals.

On the purely anecdotal, or observational, level, a few trends I've noticed:
- modern thought about recovery is to get patient up and moving asap. No unnecessary wallowing. Early discharge. Registrars love this (always someone else waiting for the bed)
- Day surgery centres becoming more popular.. with the private sector developing these.
- public system seems to be close to crisis point most of the time. Elective surgery, by its very nature, is pushed down the line...until the state Health Depts, & usually sometime close to an election, find a large sum to reduce waiting lists. Capacity constraints means these jobs go to private sector.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
alonso
post Posted: Mar 6 2018, 11:43 AM
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Not having held this for a good while, I'm not up with its performance.
But they keep telling us people are dropping insurance like hot cakes.
However I wonder if the people who are dropping out are the same cohort that use private hospitals the most.
I guess movements in bed occupancy rates would tell us that.
Anybody know?



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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 28 2018, 03:22 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 28 2018, 01:10 PM

1. suspicions always on those 'laggards' reporting on last day of the season

2. International expansion. Hmmm. Interim net profit slips 3.7 per cent to $246.5m, weighed down by a $23.9m provision against its French hospital venture as it moves finance, administration and other functions to a shared service centre on the outskirts of Paris.

QUOTE
Ramsay Health Care results were “slightly weaker than expected” according to Macquarie. While guidance for FY18 Core EPS growth of 8-10 per cent was reiterated, the 1H18 result was about 4.5 per cent below Macquarie’s forecasts at the EBITDA and core NPAT level

“On balance, this was a slightly weaker-than-expected result relative both to our forecasts and consensus expectations,” the broker says.






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 28 2018, 01:10 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 27 2017, 12:22 PM

results is out, a market darling become a "too good to be true" and dumped .

see if it goes under 60 mark tomorrow or this week. if it dose then it means market give up on them.



 


nipper
post Posted: Mar 27 2017, 12:22 PM
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Ramsay Health Care has had a remarkable smack in the face recently, something that this stock is not used to. With this backdrop, I look at recent signals and Director selling for Ramsay in this note - The Coppo Report
QUOTE
Ramsay reported on the 23rd February and on the day fell -3.3% (and was down as much as -8.8% intraday). Never a good sign.

But since then the stock has gone into "free fall" and has fallen 13 days out of 15 – from $71.74 to now $62.68 a drop of -$9.16 or -12.7% to now its lowest level in 11 months.

When they reported they came out with an "in line" result but some reasons it has come back could be:
(1) Over the 3 weeks the stock before reporting RHC had rallied +10% into its result,
(2) The stock trades on a forward PE of 26 times, so needs huge EPS growth to continue
(3) The Healthscope result the day saw HSO's EBITDA was +6%- above market & on the day saw HSO up +5.8%. After a period in the sin bin, their prospects may be improving– which could mean we have been seeing some switching out of Ramsay that trades on 26x into the re-emerging HSO that trades on 21x (at the same time that RHC has fallen -12% Healthscope has no moved)
(4) CEO Chris Rex – who's been at coy for 22 odd years announced at the result that he intended to retire this year BUT market didn't like the fact that they have no replacement in mind yet..
(5) We have seen not 1 - but 2 - Directors selling & this is a 'warning sign'..
-- Christopher Paul Rex– CEO last week sold 400,000 shares at $68.10 – worth $27.2m (still holds 806,213). These were sold On-market trade for the purposes of Mr. Rex: a) undertaking the orderly diversification of his personal investment portfolio following the announcement of his intention to retire in 2017; and satisfying his tax liability arising from shares received as part of his remuneration
-- Bruce Roger Soden CFO, Group Finance Director–sold 110,000 shares at $68.18 – worth $7.5m(still holds) 290,791 These were sold On-market trade to satisfy tax liability arising from shares received as part of his remuneration. Ok, Chris Rex is retiring so that's a good reason to sell and he did say in January "I've got millions of things I would like to do before I die and I want to get cracking on them".

On top of this we are also going to see soon the estate of the late founder Paul Ramsay sell around $500m in Ramsay stock– which is 32% of their $4.5 billion, to partly to fund a support the establishment of "the Ramsay Centre"

History & Quant Studies have told me what to look out for when Directors Buy & Sell; over the years I have looked at director (or what we also call "Insiders" ) selling and director buying. Plus - there have been "Quant" studies done on this at the brokers I have worked at. The results are that....

Director buying is a small positive.

Director selling (if reasons are ok ie due to building a house or funding a tax liability) a small negative - but given most need to sell stock to fund their lifestyles it isn't a major worry most times... BUT ... When - over the years - we have seen 2 or more Directors in the same company sell within a close time period – it's a "red flag event" - it has been a huge negative for the share price as its a sign to many that if they are selling they may think the stock is at an "expensive level" or worse that maybe things are not going so well at that company…

Most times this has seen the stock under-performs for some time after.

Even if the reasons are legitimate– the market is always cautious when more than 1 director sells stock. In this case of Ramsay Healthcare - we are seeing the CEO leaving the company and he wants cash - fair enough - so maybe the market will look through that?

Still, for now, I can't see Ramsay outperforming in the next few months at least.

The last time we saw 2 Directors selling (and this time we really should have taken notice) was...
...Bellamy's

-
of course it has since rebounded to around $68




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 14 2017, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 24 2017, 10:07 AM

from TA point of view ---60bucks or lower within 2 months . imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 24 2017, 10:07 AM
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Ramsay Health Care shares fell more than 9% yesterday in early trading after the company surprised the market with the news that CEO, Chris Rex plans to retire this year after nine years in the top job.

The news overshadowed another record quarterly profit from Ramsay, up 13.8% to $255.9 million. Revenue for the December half rose 3.4% to $4.3 billion and core earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 7% to $648.9 million.

Ramsay will pay an interim dividend of 53 cents a share, up 12.8%.
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under 70 bucks now on the back of this "fantastic" result. as i said before -------market expectation is too high.
still think it will hit low 60's or even go below 60's
good company but market just paid too much for it IMHO.



 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 5 2016, 10:44 AM
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Two two healthcare stocks, Ramsay Health Care and CSL, have become substantially cheaper and therefore more attractive in recent months. CSL is not far from levels where conservative investors could consider a buy.

We like Ramsay below $70 and CSL below $95 because at these prices they are at reasonable discounts to our respective $76 and $105 valuations. At $70 and $95, the closure of the share prices to our valuations, plus the dividend yields, should yield CPI plus 6 per cent over the year ahead — a reasonable return benchmark for the ASX’s largest companies.

Ramsay Health Care

Not helped by a recent slide in the broader market, Ramsay shares are trading about 10 per cent lower than before competitor Healthscope’s profit warning at its AGM on October 20.

Healthscope warned that weak patient volumes and a less profitable case mix in September would, if sustained, mean flat hospital earnings next year. The problems include deferral of ortho­pedic surgery, private health insurance ­policyholders downgrading cover and public hospitals competing for volumes.

The market was relieved when Ramsay reiterated its existing earnings guidance, for 10-12 per cent earnings growth next year, just six days after the Healthscope statement. This indicates the greater quality and diversification of Ramsay’s hospital portfolio and a commitment to conservative guidance. The challenge for Ramsay is clear: Can it deliver sustainable earnings growth from its French expansion when the Australian portfolio is approaching maturity? Ramsay has possibly found France harder going, due to a volatile economy and some uncertainty about public funding of private hospitals, than when it made its first buys there in 2010.

Most likely the French portfolio will not deliver its best growth until 2018 but the discount to our valuation is becoming interesting so it could pay to watch the stock. Its plans to enter pharmacy would be fruit for the sideboard if delivered. Investors should think carefully about their desired weightings to private hospital stocks given the annual political risk to the rate of increase in health insurance premiums ­allowed by government.

David Walker is senior analyst atStocksInValue.com.au





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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