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DCN, DACIAN GOLD LIMITED
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 31 2020, 09:19 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jul 26 2020, 02:29 PM

Can't argue with your financial logic.
But after taking such a bath on this one, I am not yet mentally ready to embrace it again.
perhaps if RMS did pick it up, the decision would be taken out of my hands.
Mick



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triage
post Posted: Jul 26 2020, 02:29 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jul 13 2020, 07:52 PM

Dacian's market cap is now under $190m and their cash and gold effectively cover their debt so it also has an enterprise value of about $190m. They do have a hedge at about A$1,775 per ounce on about 85k ounces up to the end of June 2021.

For that money they have a new near fully commissioned processing plant with a capacity of 2.5mtpa, a production schedule of just over 110k ounces pa for the next three fiscal years from mostly open pit operations around Jupiter, a soon-to-be mothballed underground mine at Westralia with a reserve of 195k ounces (not included in the current mine plan) and five completed declines, a complete working village and 608 sqk's of greenstone in the Yilgarn Crator (in the same vicinity as Granny Smith and Sunrise Dam).

I reckon the replacement value of the physical infrastructure would be close to $190m. So at this price you are getting 3 years production at 110k oz effectively for free (that's a dumb way of phrasing it but hopefully it makes my point). Who knows if and for how long the gold price holds up but currently it is over A$2,600 per ounce. Dacian has been indicating its AISC is upwards of A$1,600 per ounce. So 330k ounces x ($2,600 - $1,600) = $330,000,000.


My back-of-the-beer coaster analysis suggests Dacian is currently good value. I also think that it would be a good pick up for Ramelius at a 50% premium to current market price.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 
triage
post Posted: Jul 13 2020, 07:52 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jul 13 2020, 10:13 AM

I dunno Mick - just over $220m market cap for a $100kozpa processing centre looks almost enticing to me. Their debt is now pretty much manageable. There are a number of WA gold explorers with higher market caps than Dacian (and I've come to hate development risk - the number of firms that I've followed that have failed to successfully transition from developer to producer has put me off companies that are attempting it - everything takes too long and so much can and does go wrong).

Mark Z of Ramelius said at a presentation recently that they were looking for a third processing centre that was a step up in quality in terms of quality of operation, life of mine and market perception. Dacian does not tick any of those boxes but I reckon their Mt Magnet mine manager and her team could work wonders with Dacian's mines. The way that Mark Z and the on-ground team has steadily unpicked the riches at Mt Magnet has been a company maker.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 13 2020, 10:13 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 16 2020, 03:50 PM

DCN hit a low today after another downgrade.
Lots of people were hoping the new Boss Leigh Junk (what a moniker!) could turn things around. But they go from bad to worse.
This is now in Dog status.
Coslty investment for me and glad I took my losses and ran away.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 16 2020, 03:50 PM
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DCN approaching the SPP of 0.30,
The ultimate irony will be for the price to drop below it making life difficult for the stag profiteers.
Mick




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 14 2020, 07:26 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Apr 14 2020, 05:10 PM

Thanks triage, my other goldies went up enough today to nuetralise the DCN loss.
Gradually selling out when I make a profit.
Want to get back to 80%+ cash, then sit back and wait for the phase two.
Mick



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triage
post Posted: Apr 14 2020, 05:10 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 14 2020, 12:55 PM

You're a good man, Mick. Pretty much no-one on these forums admits to a loss and then take it on the chin. They either always get in at the bottom and get out at the top or they squeal like stuck pigs about how unfair the world is.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 14 2020, 12:55 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 9 2020, 09:22 AM

Sold out of DCN at relisting for a substantial loss.
Moved on, it is dead and buried, not to be resurrected.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 9 2020, 09:22 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Apr 8 2020, 01:00 PM

Don't bother Triage, I vented my spleen to some poor bugger at Dacian headquarters over the phone yesterday.
I have lost about 60k, so decided to move on and make it up somewhere else.
I know somewhere I have an old unsigned contract with the devil for 1 soul.
Will see if I can dig it out.
Mick



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triage
post Posted: Apr 8 2020, 01:00 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 8 2020, 12:55 PM

Commiserations Mick. It will be my assignment over the break but it sounds at first like the lenders have called the loans in (?). If all the raised funds go straight back out to the banks then it means the bankers have got their money whilst leaving the carcass for the shareholders.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
 


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