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APT, AFTERPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 16 2019, 09:35 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 16 2019, 07:09 PM

Investors wise up to the tech pretenders
Elizabeth Knight
QUOTE
Is the love affair between investors and technology companies over?

The failure of consumer credit provider Latitude to reach listing altitude, the very large valuation question marks now placed on Afterpay by a prominent investment bank and the latest debt financing dilemma faced by WeWork raises this question.

These companies have two things in common - they are masquerading as technology companies and they all carry risk

Investors are wising up to what counts as a true innovation stock with real prospects..


read more - https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/i...016-p531ak.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 16 2019, 07:09 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 16 2019, 11:39 AM

QUOTE
Anthony Eisen responds to UBS Afterpay report
Afterpay chief executive Anthony Eisen disagrees the company faces significant risks of future regulation, arguing consumers know exactly what they're doing when they sign up to the service.

"I think they’ve made a choice around trust, simplicity...We never change the rules, we treat people fairly, we treat them consistently. I don't think we're changing people's [purchasing] desires," Mr Eisen told an audience at the Intersekt fintech festival in Melbourne on Wednesday.

Mr Eisen refused to be drawn on the analysis, saying he did not know the UBS research team and told the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, "we leave it to the market to determine where we're at".

The UBS Evidence Lab note surveyed more than 1,000 customers of buy now, pay later services and suggested there were significant gaps in knowledge among consumers. It found customers who used those services were significantly more likely to have debts than those who didn't, while significant segment of customers do use these services as credit — UBS found 26 per cent of those surveyed used services like Afterpay because they couldn't afford an item otherwise. Eleven per cent had already reached their credit limits.

Full story available soon.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ing...016-p5313w.html




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 16 2019, 11:39 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2019, 01:22 PM

UBS initiates Afterpay Touch with 'sell'
By Lucy Battersby
QUOTE
UBS analysts have started covering the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) sector with a price target of just $17.25 for Afterpay Touch, which is half today's price of $34.59. They also have a 'sell' recommendation on Zip with a $4.80 price target, it is trading 4.2 per cent lower at $5.20.

"To justify Afterpay's share price, we estimate gross merchandise value needs to grow to about $175 billion by 2029-30,'' the analysts note.

"This could require about 47 million customers, or a combined 18 per cent/12.5 per cent/12.5 per cent of the Australia/US/UK adult populations collectively spending about $3,800 per year (more than double ANZ per customer spend in 2018-19). Less growth is priced in for Zip than for Afterpay, which we believe is fair given Zip's smaller customer base and underlying sales today.''

The UBS team, led by Tom Beadle and Jonathan Mott, argue the BNPL sector is at risk of further regulation with 64 per cent of users agreeing it is a credit service. This means the sector is at risk of further regulation, which is not being priced into share prices.

UBS analysis found BNPL drives sales, but users tend to be younger, wealthier and employed, but more indebted.

"In our view, this could suggest either 1) that BNPL services are filtering out potential customers who are on lower incomes or not in full time employment of 2) if existing consumers are early adopters, credit quality could fall if BNPL becomes more mass-market,'' the analysts write.


Total short positions as at 9/10/19 = 2.13%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=apt
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2019, 01:22 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 8 2019, 11:19 AM

David Hancock leaves Afterpay
By Lucy Battersby
QUOTE
Yesterday evening Afterpay Touch announced David Hancock is resigning as a director, effective from yesterday. He has been an independent non-executive director since 30 March, 2017, when Afterpay and Touchcorp merged. He will remain as a consultant.

As he is no longer a director, Mr Hancock will no longer have to update the market when he sells his shares. However a final notice reveals his has options that allow him to buy $99 million worth of Afterpay shares (at today's price) for just $7.5 million. He owns a further ordinary 950,000 shares, which are worth $32.5 million at today's price.

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 8 2019, 11:19 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 8 2019, 10:53 AM

Interesting video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2CdnZTlXME...eature=youtu.be - Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna need true moats against competitors

extract of AFR article - WeWork's IPO-killer gives his Afterpay verdict
Stocks 'will likely be halved in the next 12 months'
QUOTE
Galloway argues that Visa’s announcement in July that it would enter the buy now, pay later space later this year was very bad news for Afterpay, Affirm and Klarna.

He says card companies have strong instalment products in other markets – Brazil is a good example, where instalment-type products account for 50 per cent of the consumer credit market – and is it likely that Mastercard quickly follows Visa’s lead.

“Brand identity goes a long way, and these companies have been explicit in targeting young professionals without credit cards. But they are likely over-valued,” Galloway says, arguing that while Mastercard and Visa are valued at 18 times and 19 times revenue respectively, Afterpay is trading on 37 times.

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/wework-s-ip...20191008-p52yjy



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 8 2019, 10:53 AM
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Posts: 6,401
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 30 2019, 04:27 PM

Afterpay down in anticipation
By Lucy Battersby
QUOTE
Shares in Afterpay Touch are down 3.3 per cent today to $33.76 without any news coming out from the company and industry news focused on the Latitude public offering.

However, traders may be anticipating a large sale after the Australian Financial Review last week pointed out executive director David Hancock's $136 million worth of shares are released from voluntary escrow today, according to an item in last week's Rear Window column. However, he is unlikely to be able to sell right now given Afterpay has just handed AUSTRAC its audit report, but the contents of the report are not widely known beyond the Afterpay boardroom.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=apt
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 04:27 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 30 2019, 04:10 PM

Latitude Financial Services allude to this in the PDS
- Challenge of declining credit card usage;
- installment loans, personal and car loans seen as a bit old-fashioned
- Needing to reinvent into the *buy now, pay later* market.

QUOTE
From the prospectus: "There has been an increased preference of customers for debit over credit products and a decline in demand for unsecured personal lending."




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 04:10 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 30 2019, 03:31 PM

Interesting chart tweeted by David Scutt - https://twitter.com/Scutty/status/1178531693944139777

QUOTE
Australian credit card debt continuing to fall, according to new data from APRA. Increased risk aversion and sluggish household spending are two factors, but one suspects that $APT etc are also behind this unwind. Chart from @CommSec

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 03:31 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 25 2019, 10:00 PM

Extract

QUOTE
Material Catalysts Ahead For Afterpay Touch
Australia | 12:46 PM

Afterpay Touch is on the threshold of a substantial market opportunity and brokers eagerly await several potential positive catalysts.

-Frequency of use reflecting customer loyalty and credit quality
-Afterpay continues to broaden its service offering
-Full valuation and competition concerns limit some broker views

By Eva Brocklehurst

More and more, brokers are contemplating the exceedingly strong growth path ahead for payments company Afterpay Touch ((APT)). Several catalysts are expected before the end of the year including further news on new markets and verticals, an update on trends and number of merchant clients, as well as further details on the collaboration with Visa International.

Goldman Sachs calculates a $1.0trn market opportunity for Afterpay Touch and suggests frequency of use should drive strong operating leverage in the medium term despite the expenditure being undertaken to support growth


read more - https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2019/09/3...afterpay-touch/

Total short position as at 24th September, 2019 - 2.21%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=apt
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 25 2019, 10:00 PM
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Posts: 6,199
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AfterPay shares climbed by more than 13 per cent after Goldman Sachs lifted its price target on the buy-now pay-later juggernaut's stock to $42.90.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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