Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

10 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

APT, AFTERPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED
Mags
post Posted: Nov 22 2020, 05:32 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 450
Thanks: 237


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 20 2020, 03:53 PM

What a lame excuse that is.It's actually demographics.The kids of today, are kids of the depression: they see their baby boomer parents, asset rich, cash poor, selfish, entitled with life styles they can't afford etc etc.
The kids don't want to be like that: I may be 40, but I employ younger people and I get one well with the younger generations: They're not interested in consumerism. That's what the kerfuffle was when iPhone sales missed their target: Peak consumerism.
Chuck in the 'unseen' economic tantrum that's yet to unfold from Covid, and these kids have no interest in being the typical capitalists dream customer. It's now proven their parents drink twice as much booze as them. Two total different lifestyles.One of my mates kids, has some shitty samsung phone that's always rebooting, crashing/over heating etc etc... but he wont replace it: He's got a years wage in the bank, drives an old car paid cash for, has no intention of upgrading, buying a house etc etc.Just happy to eek along putting money in the bank.Of course the media tell us it's different, that they party, they do drugs, they can't save, they all have $2000 phones, they all have Audi's, they all have big credit card debts etc etc.
That's simply not true. I actually know several kids in their 20's that have their heads screwed on far better than their parents.....


 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 20 2020, 03:53 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,740
Thanks: 2600


Millennials and Gen Z are hard to reach. The traditional modes of advertising do not reach this generation.

Anthony Eisen, Co CEO, Afterpay Ltd



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 16 2020, 11:15 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,947
Thanks: 1079


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 14 2020, 09:41 AM

And the report is out.\
From Todays OZ
QUOTE
An ASIC review of the buy now, pay later industry has found the number of transactions nearly doubled in the 2018-19 financial year, but 21 per cent of users who were surveyed missed a payment over the same period.

Missed payment fee revenue for the six providers totalled $43m, up 38 per cent compared to the previous financial year.

“Our review shows additional costs are borne by some consumers who are incurring missed payment fees and who report financial stress and difficulty meeting other financial commitments,” the ASIC report, released on Monday, says.

“While most buy now, pay later arrangements are marketed as a budgeting tool or a way to make purchases more affordable, some consumers are missing payments and incurring fees as a result.

“From our research we also found that some consumers who use buy now, pay later arrangements are experiencing financial hardship, such as cutting back on or going without essentials (for example meals) or taking out additional loans, in order to make their buy now, pay later payments on time.

“ASIC said regulatory changes that would soon be implemented, as well as an industry code of conduct, provided an opportunity to address consumer harm.

Design and distribution obligations, requiring the industry to design products that meet consumer needs, will come into effect in October 2021.

Companies are also developing a code of conduct to generate good consumer outcomes.

The buy now, pay later providers reviewed by ASIC included industry giant Afterpay, BrightePay, Humm, Openpay, Payright and Zip Pay.

The number of buy now, pay later transactions increased from 16.8m in the 2017-18 financial year to 32m in the financial year 2018-19, up 90 per cent. is also a risk that consumers may be paying inflated prices for some goods and services when using a buy now pay later arrangement.”


So, I wonder who will carry the financial cost of those who just don't pay??

Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: boylep  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 14 2020, 09:41 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,740
Thanks: 2600


In Reply To: henrietta's post @ Aug 27 2020, 03:17 PM

QUOTE
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission is preparing to release a new report card on buy, now pay later operators early next week, after a previous November 2018 study which found one in six users had either become overdrawn, delayed bill payments or borrowed additional funds because of a buy now, pay later arrangement.

The latest report, delayed due to COVID 19, will highlight the extent that young users, many of whom would not qualify for a credit card, are paying for the instalment repayment services, despite them being interest free. Australia is a pioneer in the space globally and the sector is one of the most frothy on the equity market.

The renewed focus from ASIC could pressure Afterpay to continue to reduce the proportion of its income earned from late fees. In the last financial year, it earned $68.8 million in late fees, up 49 per cent in dollar terms as customer numbers grew but lower as a percentage of total income at 16 per cent, compared to 23 per cent a year earlier. The rest of its income is paid by merchants.

Afterpay's late fees come despite a total cap of $68 per order but it earns less from customers than main rival Zip, which charges account fees when balances are rolled over and earns around 60 per cent of its income from customers...




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: myshares  
 
henrietta
post Posted: Aug 27 2020, 03:17 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 4,376
Thanks: 722


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 27 2020, 01:48 PM

More and more outrageous valuations. Time to watch the market very carefully ........ something's got to give.

Cheers
J



--------------------
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 27 2020, 01:48 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,740
Thanks: 2600


Is it a crazy world? How does a loss making new kid on the block get valued? Now bigger than ANZ Bank; & well into the Top 20 on ASX
QUOTE
With brokers reluctant to put a forward price earnings multiple on the company, one of the few measures for comparing Afterpay with other global tech companies is revenue to enterprise value. Afterpay lost $22 million in the year to June taking accumulated losses to $142 million. Some will argue this exercise is ridiculous given that Afterpay is a tiny niche player in the global payments system and it cannot be compared with companies involved in social media, search-based advertising, video streaming, online retail or software collaborative tools.

Afterpay comes out on top in a comparison of enterprise values as a multiple of forward revenue based on consensus broker data collected by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
QUOTE
Afterpay has a multiple of 28 compared to multiples for the following companies: Netflix 9.33, Facebook 9.2, Apple seven, Google five, Amazon four. For the record Atlassian comes in at 23 times and Tesla comes in at 11 times. The only company that comes close to matching the revenue multiple of Afterpay is Zip Co (Z1P) .

There are a couple of caveats to the Afterpay revenue multiple. First, brokers may, based on the latest financial results, upgrade their revenue numbers for 2021. Second, the share price spiked another 5 per cent on Thursday morning which would mean the multiple should be higher.

Revenue multiples became de rigueur as the measure of success in the last tech bubble in 1999/ 2000. ... But in March 2000 following the publication of comprehensive cash burn rates in Barrons weekly newspaper share prices began to plunge.

There does not appear to be any danger of Afterpay running out of capital to cover its losses given its recent successful capital raising, strong balance sheet and extensive funding lines. But a switch in market sentiment in relation to the amount investors were willing to pay for growth could be devastating for the valuation of highly rated stocks.

The Afterpay results published on Thursday had mostly been prereleased. Two of the numbers investors were hanging out for were the receivables impairment expense which rose from $58.7 million to $94.5 million and late fees as a percentage of income which fell from 18.7 per cent to 13.7 per cent. The Afterpay gross loss rate is the receivables impairment expense expressed as a percentage of underlying sales. This improved by 24 per cent from 1.1 per cent to 0.9 per cent. The company said payment defaults were at record lows in April and May and this trend was sustained in June and July.

Shareholders in Afterpay will be pleased to see the company has revamped its remuneration framework to put greater emphasis on equity rewards and encourage key management personnel (KMP) to focus on getting the share price up.

The long term incentive for Afterpay executives has two equally weighted hurdles: growth in gross merchandise value, which is underlying sales, and increase in net transaction margin assessed over three years. Delivery of the LTI in options also encourages a focus on the Group's share price performance as the LTI will only deliver value to executive KMP if both the share price increases above the exercise price and the performance measures are met, the company remuneration report said.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/afterpay-sm...20200827-p55pry



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Aug 15 2020, 01:51 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,740
Thanks: 2600


Afterpay is hiring an Influencer Marketing Associate, based in New York City, according to a filing on LinkedIn.

QUOTE
Afterpay is looking for a freelance contractor to help us maintain and grow our influencer network. We're looking for someone who has at least 3-6 years of experience working on influencer campaigns, and can dedicate at least 25 hours per week to this program. This role will be a 6 month contract, the company says.

Key responsibilities include selecting monthly influencers via the company's partner influencer platform; assisting with managing the brand ambassador program; and ensuring activations happen in timely fashion.
QUOTE
If you are brave, if you are committed to doing the right thing, if you always keep it real, and your background matches the description above then please apply today!, the company says.

Afterpay is continuing to hire for all open roles with all interviewing and on-boarding done virtually due to COVID-19. All new team members, in addition to current staff, will temporarily work from home until it is safe to return to our offices.


.... (sounds more like keeping it unreal, to me)




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 2 2020, 02:14 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,740
Thanks: 2600


Most of the popular focus on Afterpay, which reports its full year results on August 27, and the other buy now, pay later stocks is on top line growth numbers. Revenue is a function of the size of the customer base and merchant network, driven by overall transactions made on the system and the average value of those transactions per user.

But more attention is focusing on the bottom line. Investors hone in on the net transaction margin. Essentially, this examines how much the company is making after bad debts, processing costs and funding costs are subtracted from the merchant and late fees revenue. It reflects that, like banks, buy now, pay later profits need to be offset by the customers who don't pay.
For now, generous government stimulus packages have been back-stopping bad debts and encouraging spending... so bad debt levels at Afterpay, Zip and the other players have remained low. Short repayment cycles and capped spending amounts for new customers help (users can get access to more credit over time after proving themselves).

In future results, investors should watch Afterpay's consumer adoption, gross merchant volume and revenue margins and form a view around where these metrics can grow to over the long term We favour Afterpay's simple and free instalment solution, which has a proven track record of rapid consumer adoption upon launch in new geographies, said an analyst

This land grab for global scale is forcing the main players into losses, which for now investors are willing to tolerate. They understand there are likely to be only be a few winners globally, and getting to scale requires serious investment in marketing, R&D and staff.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 17 2020, 02:25 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,740
Thanks: 2600


QUOTE
Livewire Markets: Jun Bei, your first one, first cab off the rank, the hottest stock on the market at the moment, Afterpay defying gravity; buy, hold, or sell?

Jun Bei Liu (Tribeca): It is a hold for me. Look, it was a buy, but certainly its share price has gone through the roof. We think the opportunity set is enormous for this company and they are only just touching the surface of what they could achieve .... 1 per cent penetration in the US and other markets. Now they are moving into raise huge amounts of money and they got the war chest to go and go after those market share, so it is a hold for me.



QUOTE
Livewire Markets: Okay. Well, big market cap. They have executed flawlessly, huge capital raising, buy, hold, or sell?

Eleanor Swanson (Firetrail): It is also a hold for me. Afterpay has absolutely dominated the retail market in Australia and it looks like they are going to do the same thing in the US. However, we feel that is largely priced into the current share price. To get upside from here, I need to see Afterpay starting to roll out into new markets. I tend to try and value it market by market, and each new market adds about $6 to the current share price.

In addition, we think there is an opportunity for Afterpay to really go after marketing for these retailers and build out a marketing platform. To put that opportunity into context, they generated 10 million leads for US retailers in the month of April alone. They are not monetising that at the moment and we think that is a huge opportunity for the company. It is a comfortable hold.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 8 2020, 11:39 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,740
Thanks: 2600


https://www.afr.com/


Analyst views on the raising and update flooded in on Wednesday morning, as Afterpay shares hovered around $66.30 in early trade. The likes of UBS said the fresh equity wouldn't be enough to fund its growth and Macquarie concluded COVID-19 had accelerated the flywheel driving its growth.
Here's the rundown.

UBS
The Swiss bank analysts said the capital raising was supportive of the broker view on its capital intensive business model. They estimated Afterpay loan book was about $850 million at June 30 and if it were to growth to $52 billion by fiscal 2025, as in the UBS base case, then the size of its net receivables might increase to $3.8 billion.

In our view, APTs raising therefore is insufficient to fund the growth on its own, with further equity, warehouse or other debt funding required. Based on sell-side consensus forecasts, we continue to strongly believe the market is under-appreciating the APT's capital intensity.

UBS had a price target of $27.

Macquarie
The silver donut said the company's fourth quarter update showed that COVID-19 has accelerated APT's business in the short term, which ultimately benefits it for the long-term.

Afterpay booked $3.8 billion in underlying sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, a 127 per cent increase on the previous corresponding period and a 52 per cent uptick on the previous quarter. This reflects continued scaling of the business in all three markets, as well as a boost from the shift to a greater penetration of online sales during and as a result of COVID lockdowns. Afterpay's execution is strong across all three key markets, Macquarie said. The acceleration in growth during the current half bodes well for momentum in the years ahead, and for entry into new markets.

Macquarie has a price target of $70.

Morgan Stanley
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said Afterpays June quarter was rather impressive and its sales numbers were well ahead of the broker's and consensus forecasts. While we expect upgrades to consensus estimates, some of the good news is already in the share price with the stock re-rating to 25xFY21E revenues from 12x in February.

Morgan Stanley price target was $36.

Bell Potter
Bell Potter said Afterpay increasing its capital firepower was to turbocharge its pursuit of the market opportunity before it and to de-risk the business". "This raising makes sense, Bell Potter analysts said in a note to clients. In the last year APT has more than doubled its GMV to $11.1 billion and customer numbers to 9.9m, where the runway for further growth appears bright.

The broker said it saw further growth in the business being driven by higher customer numbers, increased frequency and further global expansion. It said it saw Europe as the next obvious expansion point or somewhere closer to home in South East Asia.

Bell Potter has a $81.25 price target.

Morgans
Analysts at Morgans said it was hard to find any real faults in APT's 4Q20 numbers. Sales had grown, alongside group customers and merchant numbers, while group revenue margin, net transaction margin and net loss ratio were all broadly stable on recent periods. It said the company capital raising was opportunistic after a strong share price run. Afterpay shares are trading up more than 115 per cent year-to-date.

While a concurrent founder sell-down ($250m) comes with the usual negative connotations (and only a ~5 month commitment to not sell further stock), the parcel sold is only 10% of their respective holdings with both founders maintaining sizeable stock positions (18.4m shares each). APT's momentum continues to be highly impressive, but trading on 37x FY20 revenue we see its valuation as fair and maintain our HOLD call.

Morgans has a $68.58 target price.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


10 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING