2011 - Your Predictions?

[Tylergold]

Who is talking about rationality--especially when it comes to the stockmarket, isn't anything worth what the market will pay for it on the day it is bought or sold?

Wow, whats the point of being in the sharemarket if there was no discrepancy between price and value??

[henrietta]

In Reply To: arty's post @ Jan 2 2011, 04:14 PM

Oil slid , feathers were down , beer was flat , but cement firmed , and Boeing took off.



Cheers
J

[flower]

In Reply To: Dan1's post @ Jan 1 2011, 04:18 PM

Hi Dan1: there is no doubt this a multi faceted problem to explain, but many observers are making the point that until China takes the big decision to sever the USD peg totally any ammount of internal interest rate rises won't have the effect desired, but for the rest of the world each rates rise without major Yuan revaluation unsettles world markets who then fear collapse of the Chinese miracle, so maybe for all those other economies dependant on China the sooner they make the currency revluation move the less unsettling it will be for those outside China.

China already has made moves to bolster the domestic economy at the expense of their export economy to bolster wages internally which in turn might quell growing internal unhappiness ending in uprisings.

It must be remembered that the Chinese inflation rate is 6% annually and the Chinese interest rate is 5.81% so the EFFECTIVE Chinese interest rate is still MINUS .19%.

Rates have to be increased seemingly to produce a PLUS 3/4% EFFECTIVE rate---or inflation has to DROP 3/4%.

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http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/uneve...-recovery/22771

But the big catalyst for the U.S. dollar may still be the Chinese yuan. China raised interest rates on Christmas Day. Good. They needed to. China also needs to let the yuan revalue.

And while there is no force that can compel China to revalue the yuan, traders are speculating that another yuan revaluation will be part of China's anti-inflation actions.

There's no doubt that a stronger yuan would mean a weaker dollar. And for once, that dollar weakness would be the result of market forces instead of Fed policy.

*****Let's also not forget that Fed policy is inflationary for China, due to the currency peg. Some have speculated that Fed policy is, in part, designed to pressure China on its currency.

[arty]

In Reply To: kelpie's post @ Jan 2 2011, 01:49 PM

Rubbers remained soft.
Submarines are under water; Transport stocks hardly moved; but few Airlines took off, while most nose-dived.
Solar industries shone. Nudists moved barely; but implants lifted. Hopes rose and are likely to find new targets; daily hours remained at 24, with seconds running to 3600 for the last hour. Happy 2011!

[kelpie]

Today's Sharemarket Report
Helium was up; feathers were down. Knives opened up sharply; paper remained stationary.
Lamps were dimmed in light trading; jello firmed. Elevators rose; while escalators continued their slow decline.

Weights were up and down in heavy trading. Pencils lost a few points.

Toilet paper touched a new bottom; but diapers remained unchanged. The market for raisins dried up.

Cola-cola fizzled; caterpillar inched up. Balloon prices kept inflating; roofing peaked. Rubber balls rebounded; sopranos hit a new high. And Weight Watchers gained.

Some tire makers found traction; others remained flat.

Bread rose.

[flower]

In Reply To: Tylergold's post @ Jan 1 2011, 10:45 PM

Who is talking about rationality--especially when it comes to the stockmarket, isn't anything worth what the market will pay for it on the day it is bought or sold?

Surely if you bothered to work out what you thought--for example oil was worth in AUD you would never buy or sell oil in AUD as you would never have enough time to work through all the permutations, and by the time you had the price had moved from your starting point.

OPEC and many other bodies publish daily demand/ supply stats.

[Tylergold]

In Reply To: flower's post @ Jan 1 2011, 10:30 PM

Lol,

markets are not always rational, price does not always equal value. How was Oil worth 140$ and the next year $30?
So much investor speculation. I guess you could try work out long term demand/supply for industrial use.

[flower]

In Reply To: Tylergold's post @ Jan 1 2011, 11:29 AM

IMO overall i see the market not going much either way, unless the inflation story comes around

Gold up 29%
Silver up 75%
Oil up 13%
Petrol up 15%
Copper up 20%
Wheat up 44%
Maize up 38%
Cotton up 75%
Coffee up 45%
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Hi Tylergold---above is what happened to commodity prices in USD in calendar year 2010. If there is yet no inflation--what caused those price rises?

Why is it hard to value a commodity when we know every second of the day what any commodity sells for in USD?

[Tylergold]

In Reply To: flower's post @ Jan 1 2011, 11:27 AM

Illogical, because its hard to value a commodity, you do not know if the market has factored,underfactored or over factored the knowledge in.

[Dan1]

In Reply To: flower's post @ Dec 15 2010, 08:36 PM

Hello flower, can't agree that China will massively revalue its currency. Doing so may make imports cheaper, however it will make its exports less competative and I think that saw what happened to Japan when they floated.

They won't bow to US on this