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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:23 AM
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Depending on how today unfolds, the SPX could test – and potentially breach – its recent lows. If that were to happen, it would trigger the double top formation and produce a downside target of 3,650. ..........it made new low, so short term aim for 3650ish??

As discussed last evening, the short-term trend of bad finishes tells us how unwilling buyers have been, That’s a clear attitude shift, which gradually has changed over the last few weeks. We take a closer look below.

----------------- still holds bullish hope?? cool.gif

The Bear Oscillator poked above the Tame Zone last week for the first time since June-July, 2020. The SPX didn’t fall apart after that jarring 5.9% decline on 6/11/20, but its uptrend was shaken and needed to regroup. That same type of scenario could be afoot again now.----still in hopes for bulls

Among many other Tech ETFs and indices, the NDX DID trigger a bearish topping pattern yesterday. Its downside target is: 11,670...... tech stocks is long over due for a sizeable pull back, that's a lot of people's mind.

Only 14.7% of the NDX’s components are trading above their 20 Day MAs after yesterday. Prior sell offs over the last few years have undercut 10% before a trading low was hit. It’s getting closer.....still hopping for bull case. blush.gif

The US Dollar is up today and getting closer to the top of its trading range. Back in September and October, the Dollar tried and failed twice to overtake the 94 zone. Attempt number two of potentially pushing through the 91.6 recent high seems to be at play again now.

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to me , stay aside of SPX . unclear for for both [up or down side] atm

asx200, TA point of view ..... see damage for the bull case, but i still have hopes for long...... 6695 would be my stops for my p/o
for today's scalping trade-----6720 stops for long target aim at 6775ish [ it's friday , and not many willing to hold position through weekend, and market's have a lot of shorts i reckon] imho though.



 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 4 2021, 09:29 AM
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Each SPX pullback since the October low has been bought, with each subsequent rally being strong enough to trigger a return to the top of the index’s trading channel. The SPX got a good start in replicating that behavior on Monday, but it must pick itself back up after downturn and today’s apparent tough start.---------------- it didn't back up instead of keep selling.

As the SPX made new highs in early and mid-February, its 14-Day RSI began to diverge, logging a notable LOWER high. That scenario has continued. The indicator will need to bounce further if Monday’s strong move is going to have some staying power.

The recent stall kept the SPX’s double top potential in play. Zooming in, though, a smaller bullish pattern has been under construction, too. These dueling chart formations show us how directionless the market has become over the last week and change, despite the sizable gyrations.------directionless allright, confused , push and pull, eg..

The US Dollar endured a strong negative reversal keeping it within the same multi-week trading range. It’s up again today, but still below its recent multi-week highs.------directionless as well!! lmaosmiley.gif

Gold is breaking below the 38.2% retracement level of the 2018-2020 advance, The weekly RSI now is at 36, the lowest level since August, 2018 (24).----when it hit lower than than 30% might put hand in for a bounce??
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SPX ----next support zone --------3725---3750, if not hold there, world markets will be in trouble imho!!

asx200, i'm still bullish on the index, but confident is lot less at current stage!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 3 2021, 02:05 PM

6824 as i typing
i'm out asx200 long for the DT!!

WAITING FOR ANOTHER OPPOTUNITY!! tongue.gif

TRY TO LOOK AT DAX. try to get in for the longs tonight!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 02:05 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 3 2021, 10:41 AM

another hour our cash market [asx200] will be finished.
move up the stops again to 6805-- target 6825ish at it's close. i think it might closed higher, give a go for me. tongue.gif

with RBA support , we have tail win for this bull run to keep going for little longer!! imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 10:41 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 3 2021, 08:17 AM

asx200 at 6800 as i'm typing,
lock in profit or move up stops to 6775 for the longs. [ i prefer later ]

i'm still bullish for aussie market, not that i'm biased , just from TA term.




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early birds
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 08:17 AM
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For the fourth time since late June, the SPX blasted higher just as a bearish pattern had been completed. The other instances saw strong and immediate upside follow through moves, which the index must prove it can replicate again now.-----------------no it didn't as it pulled back again last session.

Yesterday’s 92% positive adv-dec ratio puts the S&P 500’s Cumulative Adv-Dec Decline line within striking distance of its high. The A-D line has outperformed the index over the last few weeks despite the recent challenges.;;;;;;;; buy the dips ----still in a lot of people's mind



The VIX dropped over 16% yesterday for just the third time since the March, 2020 SPX lows. The other two occurrences happened near the beginning of multi-week SPX advances (11/04/20 and 1/28/21).


The NDX will be trying to leverage its best day since 11/4. This is important given that its bearish pattern remains visible. The index has begun to leverage its still depressed state vs. the SPX.

The US 10 Year Yield keeping its uptrend intact,

While the biggest Asian indices got hit hard last night (like China), South Korea outperformed. The index continues to build a potential bullish wedge formation.;;;;;;;not so sure, but asx200 might have better day today
[opened lower, then rally back to 6800 or higher] keep eye on 6775 intra--day, if it can over come the level with 5 minutes chart , then longs should target 6800 at least , or even higher [use move stoploss to trade it]




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early birds
post Posted: Mar 2 2021, 08:07 AM
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Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in March 60% of the time, with an average gain of 0.46%.
After strong Februarys, the index has done much better on average in March. Since 1940, the SPX now has logged 20 monthly February gains of least 2%; it was up the next March 75% of the time, with an average gain of 1.9%. The full table is below.

Since 2010, the SPX was up at least 2% in February seven times; it was higher in March four times (57% win rate). The last occurrence was 2019 (Feb: +3%; March +1.8%).
Over the last twenty years, the average track has seen the index struggle in the first half but then log a MULTI-MONTH low. That clearly played out in historic proportions last year. Chart is below

After February’s volatility, the SPX is left with two live bullish patterns. Late month weakness now has created a clear potential topping pattern, as well… This is nothing new. We saw the same scenario happen in June, October and January. And they all marked key trading lows.
The US 10 Year Yield is higher this morning, but other global yields are lower. Given that the 10 Year is coming off its highest 14Day RSI reading in over four years, we’ll need to watch these potential divergences closely.
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so, SPX reversed most of loss from that sell off for two sessions............., from TA point of view, ---SPX gonna keeps up side move, [ not good idea to place shorts today]

asx200, similar to SPX looks gonna go up ........



 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 27 2021, 07:39 PM
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1
While seasonality doesn’t always play out, in February, 2021 it was spot on. The SPX topped on February 16th – smackdab in the middle of the month.



2
Three short term bullish patterns have been wiped out this week, while one bearish pattern achieved its target. That’s a change of character that we shouldn’t ignore. At the very least, it tells us that the market needs to regroup.


3
Larger topping formations now are clear, too, especially within the Technology-laden indices and ETFs. Needless to say, the prior bearish set ups over the last 11 months have NOT played out.


4
The US Dollar’s downside break yesterday has been reversed. It now looks like bear trap. The Dollar now up four straight sessions.



5

Bitcoin’s back and forth action has constructed a potential BEARISH formation.


6

The 10 Year Yield is pausing after an historical run that saw its 14-Day RSI eclipse 80 for the first time since November, 2016.

7

The VIX spiked by 30% yesterday; after gains of at least 10%, the VIX has been LOWER the next day 11/13 prior times.

All eyes are on the 50 Day Moving MA and with good reason. Let’s not forget that the index spent multiple days below the line in both September and October, but it was eventually reclaimed.




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early birds
post Posted: Feb 26 2021, 07:25 AM
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NDX remains the most oversold vs. the SPX since July, 2019, the index itself must now avoid completing a potential multi-week top formation. See chart below..---it cracked last night!!

The RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF made a new all-time high yesterday. Relative to the SPX, it’s the most overbought since early December, 2016, which marked a major top------i start to give it a possible thoughts!!

The 10 Year Yield’s torrid pace continues. It’s stretched, but it has had plenty of company with the Yields in major countries like Germany, the UK and Japan also spiking. They all share two common characteristics: Each now are close to key long-term resistance zones and remain in multi decade downtrends. ----flashing warning sign!!

The German DAX is pausing,

===============
The 7 Year US Treasury Action went horrible today. The bid to cover was 2.045, the lowest on record! In addition, Indirect bids fell to 38.06%.

As a result of the weak auction, bonds prices across the board fell and yields spiked. The closely watched 10-year yield spiked through 1.5 % on the results for the first time since February 21st, 2020 to a current high of 1.544%.

What does this mean for the US economy? It means the Fed is in trouble. The bond market has been telling us this for a while now, though Powell continues to say everything is fine.

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i'm just not sure it is inflation expectation, or hot war warning sign ??? if just inflation expectation, then , things will be fine, but if it's others, then we might see the big crash!!

keep eye on asx200 , level 6725 at closing bell, and today is the last date of the trading for this month[ only has 28 days for this month]

other major market's action last night ....worries me!!! unsure.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 25 2021, 07:59 AM
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SPX had big session last night as Powell [Fed] keeps loosen policy

asx200 seems gonna follow it up from TA base, still think that 7000 plus for asx200 within month or two!! imho




 
 


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