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TLS, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
early birds
post Posted: Feb 23 2021, 07:40 AM
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23third today, it's last day to hold TLS for the 8cps ff divy , as it will x-divy tomorrow. just in case one of you guys didn't notice !! tongue.gif

might see some action on this old boring dog today?? unsure.gif



 
kahuna1
post Posted: Feb 12 2021, 07:27 PM
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Ho hum ...
Best case results confirmed and 16 cents dividend for 2021.Outlook far better than I hoped. Actually confirming the second half dividend for 2021 ... what they expect highly unusual ... of course ignored on the main by idiots buying banks who reported, well ... CBA was not inspiring nor many other old high yeilding stocks now in tatters. AGL actually looks lke a train wreck on forward stuff yet market did not hammer it too much..

As to selling towers, its likely to occur and will only add to the picture.

No reason for me to sell at this stage despite a bit higher. Market seems to love banks for some mythical longer term dividends. Reality is that they are unlikely to go above 70% of pre Covid and cap raisings diluting the shares. Bottom line, say for CBA its unlikely to even get to $4- in total a share by 2022 let alone 2021. Its just paid $1.50 .... for the half and whilst the final likely better ... suspect its at say $3.70 for 2021 so well under 5% and in fact 4.25%.

TLS well its a frog, I know its a frog ... but its price and outlook next 2 years compelling. Yield at 5% .... compared to CBA at 4.25%.
Banks paid out far too much in dividends and did not retain enough capital ... so looking forward the payout ratio will be LOWER and they must maintain higher capital adequacy rates than previously.

Market of course, as always disagrees with this for now. They love the banks, ignore the reality that ... the cost of lending and maintaining adequate reserves massively changed in the last 2 years. I have no idea the impacts of Job-keeper and seeker being reduced but unlikely to be good for banks or TLS .... the risk being more bank wise verses TLS.

As vaccines roll out, disturbing to say the least some reactions occurring Moderna and Pfizer and yep being reported ... but swept under carpet by USA based vaccines whilst attacking all others .... Well J+J vaccine single shot seems fine with far less reactions. Oxford .. whilst not perfect, it does seem to prevent 100% of very serious cases less so for moderate ones with new variants of Covid 19 emerging ... only time will tell. Same for the other one approved as well, less hassle and reactions than RNA based ones.

I suspect we have an Endemic ... not a pandemic and will be dealing with covid 19 for years. More papers coming out with strong evidence of lack of immunity to covid 19 and reinfections in the thousands ... clearly documented. Much like a bloody cold ....

Again .. unknown but ... for banks which market seems to love, massive fiscal support is going away. Not sure any form of meaningful overseas travel or migration occurs for some time.

Bottom line, I suspect the market has it all arse about face as per normal and whilst its having a hate affair with many high dividend payers such as TLS and say utilities and many other REITS which are less at risk even with ongoing covid flareups paying say 6% or so .... keeping pace with inflation if that occurs and preferring to back the banks in dreams of some magic recovery when fiscal support is already drying up.

Lastly RBA has made it as clear as one can be. We are at 0.1% for a very very very long time. 2024 and honestly likely beyond that.They are not happy about the currency. Not worried about bubbles .... inflation or anything else. As Lowe pointed out the ASX is below where it was, house prices are merely back to 2 year ago levels.

Wages growth ... virtually impossible right now to see with a lot dislocated and more happening as Job keeper evaporates .... job seeker already cut and likely even more in coming months not say to the $40- a day level but say $50-.
For me, yield and safety .... boring but ... as in say 2011 same thing, different times but being paid massively above the cash rate to hold an asset over time is the only course. Sure USA so full of hot air may pop ... or flop a bit. Some techs at insane levels If I close my eyes and take the 16 cents plus franking credits .... so 20 cents effective verses 0.1% ...

Time will tell.

Enjoy. Will think about TLS if and when its say 15% higher and by then possibly Optus has stopped discounting its third rate mobile service outside the CBD and TLS did actually sneakily raise its plans by $5 a month of late not yet reflected in the numbers. Sounds small buts its one hell of a whack given the low inflation environment outside the idiots buying bitcoin or Game stop.

Cheers
PS ... I note many analysts were calling a 13 cent dividend ... TLS came out and actually said 8 cents now and they believe 16 cents for 2021, market of course ... did not a lot considering this. Made the valuations in the $3.70 range more likely.



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  indeficit  
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 12 2021, 02:10 PM
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X2



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 12 2021, 02:09 PM
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With other sources of income hard to come by, I think there's a bit of dividend scraping going on.

The 45 day rule has trimmed the manipulation, but only to a small amount.

(Though ultimately as an exercise it is window dressing, done by some fund managers to gild the headline returns.)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 12 2021, 01:47 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 12 2021, 10:24 AM

MICK
it says 8 cps ff divy [not 5 cps].
3.29ish should be first res, then 3.38, then 3.47 on TA base

i did start to sell when it hit 3.18, and sold some today, but still hold large chunk as i think it might going little higher before x--divy day.
after x-divy TLS usually drops a lot . but i'm not so sure this time as yielding boring stock seems tick some fundies box...so i might keep few in the end [ run up the stops for the holding]
imho though.




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 12 2021, 10:24 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Dec 2 2020, 11:34 AM

Hey EB, where do you think Telstra is headed short term??
I have a heap at a price of 2.96 and a bit.
Usually if I make above 10% on something in a relatively short time, I offload half and take the profits.
But the 5 cps div is coming up, which with franking makes it attractive to retired old coots like me.
But the big question is, how far will it fall after the it goes ex div?
Its up 1% today.
If it adds another 3% before the 24th , I may have to take the chance that many buyers are in for the divvy, and it will fall at least 5% after it goes ex div.
So many difficult choices.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Feb 11 2021, 10:14 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 11 2021, 07:31 AM

a bit more flesh:

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/02/11/tel...ne-in-earnings/
Telstra said its revenue fell 10.4% to $12 billion in the December half, while net profit dipped by 2.2% to $1.1 billion.

The company took a hit of around $170 million from COVID in the half and is looking for that cost to fall as vaccinations are rolled out.

But despite that bad news, shareholders will receive an interim of 8 cents a share and CEO Andy Penn assured shareholders they would receive the same amount for the second half.

He said the company was looking for a rise in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the June half year and the company expects full-year underlying earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation in the range of $6.6 billion to $6.9 billion.

Mr Penn also indicated that company's core but wounded mobile division would return to growth by the end of the financial year.

QUOTE
After a decade of disruption following the creation of the nbn, and with its rollout now declared complete, we can clearly see the path to underlying growth ahead of us, Mr Penn said.

The company said underlying earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation fell 14.2% to $3.3 billion over the half, due to the large payments to NBN Co and the extra costs from the coronavirus pandemic, which among other issues caused declines in international roaming revenues and additional expenses for customer support.

The pandemic also saw Telstra add $100 million in costs for pausing its job cuts of 1,400 positions. Those cuts were restarted last week and another 800 positions will go as well by the end of this year.

Mr Penn said the company was looking for external investors for its recently separated tower company (which will generate more cash and allow the prospect down the track of a spin off or IPO).. Mr Penn said a search for external investors for the tower division would take place in early financial year 2022. No doubt ...led by a flock of super funds.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 11 2021, 07:31 AM
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Telstra has maintained its full interim dividend at 8˘ per share even as profits fell 2.2 per cent to $1.13 billion in the half year



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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User
post Posted: Feb 3 2021, 09:59 AM
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Since mid January the chart and trading patterns for TLS have looked promising for a run higher.

Maybe buyers wanting a franked dividend. Or expectation that Penn's separation into 3 structures may pay off this year.


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early birds
post Posted: Dec 21 2020, 09:22 AM
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/telstra-ven...20201218-p56osh

That puts the value of Telstra Ventures' stake at at least $US222 million and suggests it has reaped a tenfold return on its investment.



There are some negatives for Telstra Ventures, including the fact the escrow period under which Telstra must hold on to its stake is longer than the traditional six months under an IPO; Dolphin won’t say exactly how long the Skillz escrow period is, citing confidentiality.


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good value stock at it's current level imho



 
 


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