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China the monster.
nipper
post Posted: Mar 3 2021, 04:47 PM
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Andy Xie on China demographic trends
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The total number of births in China for 2020 is likely to be significantly below 14 million, compared to the annual average of 16.3 million over the past two decades. At the rate China is going, average annual births for the current decade may fall below 12 million, which would be roughly half the number for the 1980s and the 1990s.....

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.... It might take five or even 10 years for the Chinese government to wake up to the seriousness of the demographic crisis. After all, there are always more immediate and urgent concerns at hand. By the time the government wants to do something about the crisis, it could be too late. No country in East Asia has been able to reverse the trend. Could the Chinese government beat the odds?

https://amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s...we-know-it-when






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
plastic
post Posted: Feb 24 2021, 07:00 PM
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There was a very large mystery payment to Myanamar in the last bill passed by Trump. Can't recall the name of the bill but that payment stuck out like dogs balls. Now there is a coup followed by mystery flights from an opposing regime.

Looks like America is up to old tricks. Back in the day it was Poland. More recently Eukraine for Russian policy. For China it looks like Myanamar and Phillipines and North Korea. They already have Japan and South Korea in the bag.




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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 24 2021, 05:48 PM
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What's on the clandestine nightly flights between Myanmar and China?

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/whats-on-...nmar-and-china/
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Each night for more than a week, unregistered flights between Yangon and Kunming have been transporting unknown goods and personnel from China to Myanmar. The military regime that's now in charge of Myanmar is trying very hard to hide the flights. The Chinese government and Myanmar Airways have claimed the planes were carrying seafood exports. However, the details of the flights in question make that highly unlikely.

the author does herself a disservice with the concluding paragraph; otherwise, this is what happens at the pointy end of power projection.

And historical footnote; Kunming was the city, much more isolated and backward in those days, that the Khmer Rouge leadership sat out and plotted the 60's and early 70's before they took power with their genocidal regime in Kampuchea (Cambodia)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 12 2021, 11:33 AM
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A couple of interesting issues on China popping up.
1. According to the South China Morning Post
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Concerns over the outlook for China’s population have grown after the number of newborns recorded in the country’s household registration system declined 15 per cent during a coronavirus-hit 2020.
Last year, a total 10.035 million of newborns were recorded in the household registration system, known as hukou in China, down from 11.79 million in 2019, according to figures released by the Ministry of Public Security on Monday.
The figure is not China’s official birth rate for 2020 as the hukou system does not include the entire population, but adds to data released by some Chinese provinces for last year, which showed in some regions that birth rates declined more than 30 per cent in 2020 from a year earlier.
The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline after Chinese mothers gave birth to 14.65 million babies in 2019, which was the lowest level since 1961 and down from 15.23 million in 2018.

China already has a skewed demographic where it has more males than females, largely thanks to the one child policy introduced in 1979, and the two child policy in place for the decade prior to that. It already has 12.6% of its population over the age of 65, and with n expected lifespan of 77 years, that percentage will only get higher.
2. The Chinese economy has shown a distinct slowdown ahead of the Lunar New year. Some of this may have been expected due to factory closures, restrictions on travel in some areas due to Covid etc. But as Zero Hedge has pointed out (there are a lot of graphs associated with the article that I cannot post here due to sharescene restrictions )

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Naturally, it was Beijing's prerogative to halt any local outbreak ahead of the Lunar New Year week which begins this Friday, and which would have made any containment during the peak travel period impossible.On the other hand, tightened travel controls will adversely affect nationwide economic activities around the LNY time.

And so, whether it is due to partial covid-linked lockdowns, due to China's ongoing attempts to contain and deleverage the country's massive debt load, or simply as a byproduct of China's credit impulse which as we discussed last December, is now rapidly shrinking, but most real-time indicators of China are showing a sharp slowdown across the economy which appears to be rolling over in everything from traffic and mass transit, to manufacturing even as prices of many goods (especially food) rose sharply, in what some may call a pre-stagflationary outcome
First, a look at traffic volumes, subway and migration which have clearly slowed down.
Perhaps the most interesting chart is one tracking the recent liquidity squeeze which sent overnight and 7-day repo rates soaring in late January, only to ease substantially after the PBOC resumed net OMO injections, which have been in line with recent years. Meanwhile, both government and corporate bond issuance have picked up in the days ahead of the LNY.
Putting the above data together, Nomura's China economist Ting Lu writes that "the latest Covid-19 wave should be brought under control in coming months, but at the cost of a slower services sector recovery and a pause in policy normalization." The bank lowered its 2021 real GDP growth forecast to 8.8% (from 9%), trimming Q1, but raising Q2 on the resurgence of Covid-19 and government countermeasures, while also trimming forecasts for activity, inflation and credit indicators. This is why:

Activity: To fight the worst wave of Covid-19 since the initial outbreak, central and local governments have tightened social distancing measures, reimposed some lockdown measures and travel bans, and encouraged migrant workers to stay in their workplace cities for the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. We believe these measures will impair the recovery in the services sector, but may provide a small boost to industrial production and construction in South China, as workers would remain at their workplaces. To reflect this, we recently cut our Q1 real GDP growth forecast to 18.0% y-o-y from 19.0%, but raised our Q2 forecast to 8.1% from 7.9%, as we expect some pent-up demand to be released once these restrictions are eased. Our Q3 and Q4 growth forecasts remain nchanged. As a result, we lowered our 2021 annual growth forecast to 8.8% from 9.0% earlier.
Policy: Due to the resurgence of Covid-19 and the related growth slowdown, we believe Beijing will maintain its pledge to avoid any sharp shift in policies and its pace of normalisation will thus be highly contingent on the Covid-19 situation. We expect the PBoC to maintain its “wait-and-see” approach in the near term before resuming its gradual policy normalisation. We believe the recent surge in interbank rates was partly due to some special factors linked to RMB appreciation and cross-border RMB settlement, and expect the PBoC to ramp up short-term liquidity injections to keep interbank rates largely stable around the LNY holidays, though it may not inject as much liquidity as in previous years as the new Covid-19 wave also reduces liquidity demand.

3. China's bans on Australian Coal may end up being an own goal.
From The Australian

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China’s ban on Australian coal imports is intensifying a crisis in its coal market, which is battling surging prices, supply shortages, conflicting policy goals and a cold winter.

Locked in a diplomatic brawl over Canberra’s call for an independent global inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, Beijing imposed an informal ban around September that forced boatloads of Australian coal to languish at sea. China’s central government made the embargo official at a mid-December meeting with major Chinese electricity producers, who are big buyers of thermal coal.

The ban complicated a supply crunch that the meeting was convened to solve, government and state media reports show. China was short of thermal coal and officials urged the companies to import more--from anywhere except Australia, China’s biggest supplier. To comply, buyers in China have had to pay steep premiums for imports from farther afield, on top of prices that have risen 84 per cent since mid-year.

“Coal buyers are on tenterhooks watching the import market,” the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, which represents importers, said in a statement. “It’s been hard to replenish low coal inventory and shortages, while demand is unabated."

Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 25 2021, 01:22 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Jan 25 2021, 10:41 AM

If China were to stop manufacturing the stuff they do, it would be a severe inconvenience to the first world inhabitants, but thats about it.
They don’t export much of the things that are really life dependant - food, energy , international security.
They are net consumers of the above.
Mick



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Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  nipper  
 
Mags
post Posted: Jan 25 2021, 10:41 AM
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In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Jan 22 2021, 10:16 AM

All those things are important for the economy as a system, but ultimately, it's the 'finance system' and 'capitalism' itself that determines the result.
China can never rival USA, the capital markets are just way too different. USA, open, transparent, favourable taxation systems etc etc. (corrupt and protected by the government)
China??? She's a black box, mostly communist, with a tease of capitalism, and that's only to allow the citizens to borrow for their first investment: over priced property. Corrupt as it gets.

As automation becomes the employee of choice, you'll see manufacturing continue in USA, profits protected in the USA etc etc. It costs apple ~$300 for hardware and software on an iPhone... and they charge $2,000.... there's plenty of margin to build them in USA. It's just cheaper to farm it out to China, and let them deal with the capital cost of building factories.
People have way too much faith in the china story. Communism rarely ends well (neither does capitalism, but it's collapse isn't as deep as communism), people believe all this tariff and import bans in China is a show of strength...... no, it's a broke bully having a tantrum.



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Pendragon
post Posted: Jan 22 2021, 10:16 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 21 2021, 12:10 PM

Agree with you about the chips.
But it is not only the chips, but the quality of graduates produced by the Universities.
Sadly over the years I have witnessed a dumbing down of our graduates.

Our education system is flawed and needs to be fixed.
The quality of students coming out of our high schools is laughable.

Bunch of first years starting uni in the next few weeks. Will be interesting to see how this bunch of Covid graduates stacks up with last years mob.

 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 21 2021, 12:10 PM
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paraphrasing von Clausewitz : Technology is the continuation of politics by other means.

The Pivotal Fight between China and the US is Over the Microchip


https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/01/15/the...-the-microchip/
QUOTE
China makes less advanced microchips and relies on more advanced US supplies. China is aware its inferior chipmakers make the country vulnerable amid the 'decoupling' between China and the US that is centred on technology. Beijing thus intends to become the best and selfsufficient in the pivotal microchip industry.

Microchips form the key battleground in the rivalry between Beijing and Washington because the integrated circuit, a piece of silicon that contains nanoscopic electronic circuits, ranks with the internal combustion engine and electricity as an invention of consequence for everyday life.

As Beijing and Washington see it, the country with the best 'brains of computers' will dominate biotech, business, cyberwarfare, economic, military and other fields. Both will mobilise vast financial and political resources to ensure their microelectronics industry is the world's best .... and China is behind in production facilities and technical knowhow in this US private sector dominated industry..........




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  Pendragon  
 
Mags
post Posted: Dec 31 2020, 12:07 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Dec 30 2020, 11:02 AM

You make valid points: I was just responding to why it hasn't tanked. Because it's more than just our trade with China, and all your points back this up.
Australia couldn't go broke if it tried: Look at the idiots in Canberra, for over a decade we've had no end of idiot leaders and policy changes, none of which has really impacted the country on a 'foreign' economic stand point. Our resources allow us to vote for idiots that promise us the best personal 'payout'.
Shorten losing the last election on the back of serious taxation reforms, just proves that: Too many people worried about paying tax, let someone else pay it.



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 30 2020, 11:02 AM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Dec 30 2020, 09:20 AM

All currencies are fiat currencies, so the AUD is not alone there.
The AUD is the fifth most traded currency in the world.
The level of trading far exceeds the level of trading of goods in Oz.
For many external investors, the AUD is a proxy for commodities.
It matters little what the reality is, its all about the market.
As someone once said,bthe market can remain irrational fR longer than an individual can remain solvent.
Mick



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