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nipper
Posted on: Today, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

general FOMO , stage 1?

QUOTE
At the start of the crisis, high frequency investment crowd (risk-parity, CTAs, hedge funds etc) got out and many went short.

When the governments and central banks unleashed shock and awe they covered their shorts and the market went up like a rocket.

What happens next will be driven by the more traditional long-only investment community and by the institutional and retail clients that they manage money for.

Will they hold on, buckle down and continue to say that this is a once in a generation opportunity to buy equities?

And if so where will they get the money from?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Today, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789


QUOTE
"..Because of the rain at the start of the year, we've done more spraying with our business in the last two months than in the last four years — it's a big difference." "The biggest issue for ag at the moment is how hard it can be to find weedkiller," Ms Coupe said. "I don't think the suppliers of glyphosate in Australia anticipated that the entire eastern seaboard would have a spray round and use up all the spray in the country." "Now we've got places that need spraying and they can't get chemicals, and supplies are hard to get as well.". .
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...tural...o-life/12106688


Nufarm, anyone?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Today, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

I saw an article for the polloi along the lines this is vindication of Einstein's general theory, in that the c bit of E = mc2 was a constant, or that the speed of light doesn't change. Some of the newer theories were challenging this (whipper-snappers, the lot of them).
I think.
(trying to find the article)

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Catching 'em early is really important in exponential cases. 2 to the power of 3 is 8 but 8 to the power of 3 is 512. 8 infected people is manageable but 512 is starting to become a problem. Even if one asymptomatic carrier infected someone else who also became an asymptomatic carrier we are not talking exponential rates but geometric rates. ....


Aha, yes, the ol' Grains of rice on a Chessboard challenge.....
If someone gave you a chessboard (which has 64 squares on it) and asked you to put one grain of rice on the first square, two grains of rice on the second square, four grains of rice on the third, eight grains on the fourth, and so on, how many grains of rice would end up on the 64th square?

It sounds like an easy question ... it's simply asking you to double the number of rice grains from one square to the next, from 1 grain to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 to 32 to 64, and so on, until the 64th square.

What's the answer? You'd need 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice for the 64th square. That's nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, etc, grains.

And the amount of rice you'd need to cover the entire board, from squares 1 to 64, would be 18.4 quintillion grains.

.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-05/coronavirus-exponential-growth-explained-by-rice-on-a-chessboard/12122214
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Hiding in full sight? a positive article that looks dispassionately at CUV

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/01/the...up-in-the-rout/

The Business Models holding up in the Rout
QUOTE
CLINUVEL
The drug developer has achieved what the world wants a COVID-19 vaccine maker to do: get a treatment to market ahead of the expected timeline.

In Clinuvel’s case it’s a treatment for a rare light intolerance condition called EPP. The drug, Scenesse, was ticked off by the US Food & Drug Administration last October. The company expected to be selling the drug in the US by the end of calendar 2020, but as it happens the first commercial patients .... those with private health insurance ... will be dosed in April.

Clinuvel chief Philippe Wolgen attributes the swift progress to the company’s previous legwork in negotiating with the insurers. Post approval, the insurers’ pharmacy benefit managers had the paperwork in the bottom drawer.

About 80% of the 4000 EPP sufferers in the US are covered by private insurance. The next step is to seek Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement for the remainder. Dr Wolgen won’t be drawn on how many patients are likely to avail of the treatment, given some may be reluctant to go near a hospital while COVID-19 rages.

But the life changing nature of Scenesse means that most will try to access the drug, having endured a life of tissue damage and severe pain when exposed to even weak sunlight.

Dr Wolgen is also coy about the likely price of the drug but it’s not hard to work it out. To avoid accusations of price gouging, the company plans to maintain consistent pricing globally and in Europe the drug costs €55,000-85,000 ($US62, 000-96,000) a year (depending on the number of injections required).

Dr Wolgen said some investors had urged the company to spend more research and development to expedite development, but the board decided to preserve the cash (currently $58m) for a rainy day. The company spent about $185m developing Scenesse, which compares with $400m-plus for a typical drug that gets to market (and the majority of them don’t).

Amazingly for a biotech, Clinuvel is profitable from initial sales in Europe, where Scenesse was approved in 2014. In the 2018-19 the company reported a net profit of $18m on revenue of $18m ...and even dispensed a 2.5c a share dividend.

As always for a drug company, the US is the main prize. Even though EPP is a tiny ‘orphan’ market, the company stands to generate more than $US300m ($500million) if it reaches just half the US patient market.

The company is currently worth around $900m, having retreated from a peak value of $2.2bn after the US approval.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Thanks Roger . Why don't you post that in the 'pollution' thread?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Suddenly it's not a dangerous substance
QUOTE
... Walgett resident Enid Coupe said the rain had saved her family business from the brink of collapse. She and her husband, Hunter, have a spraying business and also run a small farm in Walgett in north-west NSW.

Ms Coupe says the last quarter's rain came just in time, after almost a decade of extremely difficult conditions for the entire region.

"We've struggled from month to month for the last eight years," she said. "It's nice to actually have a bit of solid work to get some money in our back accounts for a little while.

"Because of the rain at the start of the year, we've done more spraying with our business in the last two months than in the last four years — it's a big difference."

Ms Coupe said "inches" of follow up rain were still needed for farmers to re-establish a full soil profile after such a long dry period. Supply shortages, however, could curb efforts to make the most of last quarter's rainfall.

"The biggest issue for ag at the moment is how hard it can be to find weedkiller," Ms Coupe said. "I don't think the suppliers of glyphosate in Australia anticipated that the entire eastern seaboard would have a spray round and use up all the spray in the country.

"Now we've got places that need spraying and they can't get chemicals, and supplies are hard to get as well.". .


https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/n...o-life/12106688
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 01:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Can usually cope with the first wave, it's the second one, when still winded, that can do harm.

https://mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.o...s-idUSL4N2BM042
QUOTE
China's ports and shipping firms are bracing for a second wave of supply chain disruptions that may be deeper and more prolonged than during the country's coronavirus lockdown as the global spread of the virus chokes off international demand....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

From being an optimist 11 days ago,
QUOTE
Given the price drops and selling we've seen so far, I believe this is a good time to invest, although of course it may prove not (to) have been the best time. No one can argue that you should spend all your money today ... but equally, no one can argue that you shouldn't spend any. The more you want to garner potential gains and don't mind mark-to-market losses, the more you should invest here."
Howard Marks has gone bearish again. A summary and link to full paper can be found here.

https://www.firstlinks.com.au

His conclusion:
QUOTE
In the Global Financial Crisis, I worried about a downward cascade of financial news, and about the implications for the economy of serial bankruptcies among financial institutions. But everyday life was unchanged from what it had been, and there was no obvious threat to life and limb.

Today the range of negative outcomes seems much wider, as described above. Social isolation, disease and death, economic contraction, enormous reliance on government action, and uncertainty about the long-term effects are all with us, and the main questions surround how far they will go.

Nevertheless, the market prices of assets have responded to the events and outlook (in a very micro sense, I feel last week’s bounce reflected too much optimism, but that’s me). I would say assets were priced fairly on Friday for the optimistic case but didn’t give enough scope for the possibility of worsening news. Thus my reaction to all the above is to expect asset prices to decline. You may or may not feel there’s still time to increase defensiveness ahead of potentially negative developments. But the most important thing is to be ready to respond to and take advantage of declines."

Howard Marks is Co-founder and Co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, the largest investor in distressed securities worldwide.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 06:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Multi factor, evolving. Not fully understood. The asymptomatic issue is, I tend to agree, a big one.

No-one and no country has a clear way through to the end.

New FT graphs up https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

from April last year
QUOTE
Idronoxil Confirmed as New Immuno-Oncology Drug

  • New class of immuno-oncology drug identified
  • Activator of NK cells and CD4+ immune cells
  • Potential to boost function of current immuno-oncology drugs.

SYDNEY, April 16, 2019: Noxopharm (ASX: NOX) releases data from the first series of pre-clinical studies confirming that idronoxil (IDX), the active ingredient in the Company's anti-cancer drug candidate, Veyonda®, activates the immune system. The studies confirm that IDX activates cells associated with both the innate and adaptive immune systems, increasing functional natural killer (NK) cells and CD4+ (T-helper) cell numbers. The studies involving human cell and animal test systems are part of a coordinated collaboration between the Company and a number of prominent universities and research institutes in Australia and overseas.

and today:
QUOTE
NOX has an announcement that their drug candidate idronoxil, being used in other investigations, has some potential in the Covid-19 pandemic, in that it may block the inflammatory progress of the cytokine storm/ cascade that is causing tissue damage and the need for progressively more intense hospitalisation, to ICUs.

This is a potential third path, they claim; other than
1.development of vaccine (month or years away)
2. block viral reproduction once infection gas occurred (hydroxychloroquine, etc)


Needs to be investigated, of course. NOX has put in provisional patents and looking for funding and clinical trials.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

good refresh, Mick
and Bob Dylan has a brooding powerful 17 minute Murder Most Foul reflection on JFK and many many other things. Can be found on the link

http://www.openculture.com/2020/03/bob-dyl...assination.html
QUOTE
What is he up to in this track? Is "Murder Most Foul" a summation of Dylan's career? Dylanologists will be puzzling it out for years. But the last line of his Twitter announcement sure sounds like a cryptic farewell wrapped in a warning: “Stay safe,” Dylan writes, “stay observant, and may God be with you.”

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Read and heed
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/...ting-angry.html

QUOTE
I regard the current course of English speaking democracies (other than New Zealand) as mass murder by the political elite. I think history will regard it that way too

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

You can now buy a barrel of Western Canadian Select Crude Oil for less than a beer!


Last trade: $3.90 not sure $C or $US. - probably the latter. Does it matter?
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 08:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Because of the speed of the falls (we'll ignore the sharp but unconvincing rallies), the Market has no ability to factor in widespread dividend cuts and deeply discounted capital raisings, though it's highly likely these will come thick and fast in coming months after the unprecedented mass withdrawal of corporate earnings guidance in recent weeks.

With so much uncertainty about the corporate earnings outlook, any faith in current downgrades of the consensus earnings per share estimates (-8%) and consensus dividend per share estimates (-7%) are rearview mirror fantasies.

Even more so, the consensus-based price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times and dividend yield of 5.1 per cent (which are near their long-term averages) are illusory.

Much more whipsawing to come.... try PEs of 8 or 9 as in the GFC
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 07:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

There's a bit of a tug of war going on. I see 10+% changes on stocks on my watchlist (run about 100 at any one time, though it's a watch and learn not watch and act list in the most part).

These extreme ranges are often on no news, and can be for minnows right through to large caps. Another feature has been big jumps or drops at open, and large / huge volumes at close 4:10 matchings:- Some say these are the professionals, I think it's just "those mandated to manage others' money".

Volatility will continue. Interesting times.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

MMT .... Fasten seatbelts, because we're going to find out. What's going to go up faster than everything else that's going down?

But first, gotta throw this little big we seem to have picked up.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
The most puzzling downgrade came on Thursday when Northern Star said the coronavirus had hampered gold production in the three months to March 31 by between 10 per cent and 15 per cent.

Travel restrictions to slow the spread of the virus were not enforced in Northern Star's operating jurisdictions – Alaska and Western Australia – until March 25, but Northern Star said it had started voluntarily changing rosters and reducing the size of its teams to adapt to the virus in mid-February.

Northern Star said those changes, which were not disclosed to the market at the company's half-year results in early February nor during its presentation at the BMO conference in late February, had made it harder to move people to its mines.

Northern Star insisted those measures were entirely responsible for gold production being between 10 per cent and 15 per cent lower than expected in the March quarter.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 06:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

iWesfsrmers s selling a $1.1 billion stake in supermarkets group Coles in a trade being handled by UBS and Goldman Sachs on Monday night, sources told Street Talk.

The brokers bought the stake at $15.39 a share after market on Monday and were seeking institutional buyers to take the stock.

The deal was at an 8.5 per cent discount to the last close and represented 69.4 million shares or 5.2 per cent of Coles' equity on issue.

- now holding under 10% ...., give up the director seat. Keeping 50% of Flybuys
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 05:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Yeah, not having a go, mate.

The country is bringing forward outlays. It will be recouped over time, from the only ultimate source. US

Sometimes a bit of tough love averts greater catastrophes.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
make good profits these days


as long as you pay your taxes. Now and in the future
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Ansell Chief executive Magnus Nicolin said the company was ''experiencing very strong demand'' for its AlphaTec hand and body protection products, which provide protection against infective agents.

The group's single-use examination gloves sold under the Microflex and TouchNTuff brands, used by medical professionals, have also had ''very high demand.

- & maintained guidance
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn has warned of a 10 per cent contraction in the economy in the March quarter, as Australia weathers a “substantial demand shock” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mr Comyn said he had revised down his expectations from a week ago, when he expected a 5 per cent or 6 per cent slump in output, given the notable decline the nation’s largest retail bank was seeing in transaction data.

“There is no question there is going to be a substantial demand shock, and you’ve seen that particularly across a number of different sectors,” he told a live-streamed event on Monday
(today)

- definitely no point in using rearview mirror numbers that may come out this week, though Chinese PMI may be interesting in a curious way.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

One of the better Covid-19 sing-alongs. Done to Bohemian Rhapsody, and with a coherent and sensible message... (Just Stay Inside)

https://youtu.be/lr_tEdQvFcc
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 06:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
The disproportionate impact of the virus on Europe’s south has revived the European Union’s north-south divide rivalry, with Italy and Spain pleading for European Union help.

“It is the most difficult moment for the EU since its foundation, and it has to be ready to rise to the challenge,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said in a televised address Saturday night.

Mr Sanchez warned them that a lack of solidarity to share the enormous financial burden of the health crisis and the imminent economic slowdown will put the future of the bloc in danger.

“Europe must provide a united social and economic response. We must have evidence that Europe listens and that Europe takes action.”

There has been some European solidarity - the EU has pledged billions in aid while Germany has taken some patients from Italy and France.

However, critics say that not nearly enough as China and Russia have made a point of sending medical aid to Italy, making some Italians question where their allegiances should lie. Cuba and Albania have sent medical teams too.


(Well done Boris)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 02:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
....supply disruptions were announced from a slew of mines along with the Perth Mint, Australia’s official bullion-making operation, and South Africa’s Rand Refinery, the world’s largest metals processing outfit.

That appeared to blow out the “delivery risk premium” as the spread between spot gold and the front-month futures contract ballooned in the latter’s favo(u)r

from The Perth Mint:
BULLION - LIMITED STOCK AVAILABLE
Due to overwhelming demand for our products during this time we are out of stock of many items and some will be subject to considerable delays before they become available again.
https://www.perthmint.com/covid19.aspx

- it's time to worry when the gold market seizes up. Equities, pshaw; credit & Bond markets; throw cash at it; but GOLD!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

I thought medication delivery was an 'essential service' and supplies still get through? Maybe she just forgot to take hers ? (again?)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 12:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Under water reforms, the environment and permanent crops, such as almonds, grapes and citrus, get water allocated before annual crops such as rice, cotton and cereals.


QUOTE
"One of the reasons the irrigation community supported the reform process was the concept of property rights, transparency of process and a framework of water entitlements that give the sector confidence to invest to world's best practise," [a spokesman for rice growers] said. "Some of those have been delivered and some have demonstrably not been delivered."

"The government now holds 28 per cent of all the allocations in the Basin, so they are enormous users, and I believe they have the ability to correct the situation. "There are a number of big reports on water reform policy due in the coming months. They include reviews of the water market, water sharing, socio-economic impacts and water for the environment.

New Minister for Water, Keith Pitt, said the reports would provide important insights into water reform and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. "I am committed to ensuring the Government acts on their findings and that the time for reviews is coming to an end," Mr Pitt said. "Irrigated agriculture underpins the Basin economy. The Government will work with the industry through these challenging times and ensure it is well-placed to respond when we are through the current health crisis."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/rice...verina/12094436
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 06:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

J,
The Financial Times has a website where there's free access, no paywall, even download an app. Covers all countries:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest


Seems to be updated quite frequently
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 28 2020, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Three weeks of lockdown in Italy and death toll still rising. Some 900+ in last twenty-four hours. That's getting close to 1 every minute.

And one death every 10 minutes in New York state
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 28 2020, 11:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Some seem to think infrastructure spending will reemerge. It at least has a benefit multiplier.
QUOTE
Governments will then, to kickstart the economy, have no choice but to either a) write cheques for every individual, or b) embark on massive fiscal infrastructure projects.
B) is the only logical choice as it benefits multiple generations into the future. Think schools, bridges and roads to nowhere. Building is the only way Governments can get a direct economic return on their investments that benefits everybody – not just the rich. Clearly resource companies exposed to copper, nickel, iron ore and construction aggregates will stand to benefit most.


https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/03/27/the...after-covid-19/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 08:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

PS global population above 7 billion, but not by that much
....

and ... we anticipate that the true burden in low income settings pursuing mitigation strategies could be substantially higher than reflected in these estimate
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 08:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infec...an-coronavirus/
QUOTE
We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this year. Mitigation strategies focussing on shielding the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) and slowing but not interrupting transmission (40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) could reduce this burden by half, saving 20 million lives, but we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries will be quickly overwhelmed.

This effect is likely to be most severe in lower income settings where capacity is lowest: our mitigated scenarios lead to peak demand for critical care beds in a typical low-income setting outstripping supply by a factor of 25, in contrast to a typical high-income setting where this factor is 7. As a result, we anticipate that the true burden in low income settings pursuing mitigation strategies could be substantially higher than reflected in these estimates.


Our analysis therefore suggests that healthcare demand can only be kept within manageable levels through the rapid adoption of public health measures (including testing and isolation of cases and wider social distancing measures) to suppress transmission, similar to those being adopted in many countries at the current time. If a suppression strategy is implemented early (at 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week) and sustained, then 38.7 million lives could be saved whilst if it is initiated when death numbers are higher (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week) then 30.7 million lives could be saved.

Delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and fewer lives saved.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 07:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

SMH; owned by Nine (former Fairfax), stablemate of The Age


sort of interesting it wasn't published sout o' da borda


but what do you expect from patriots?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 04:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

The uncertain future for China's electric car makers
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51711019

QUOTE
Over the last three years the number of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has tripled, with more than 400 registered nationwide. But that breakneck expansion alarmed the government. Last year it decided to put the brakes on by withdrawing approximately half of its financial incentives for buyers. A slump in sales quickly followed, in the last quarter of 2019 sales for electric vehicles plummeted.

Now the coronavirus has supplied a second punch.

Manufacturers have been forced to halt production lines and close dealerships in a bid to stop the spread of virus. Overall auto sales in plunged 79% in February compared with the same month in 2019, according to figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) fell for the eighth month in a row.


QUOTE
"Chinese auto and battery technology is still not world-class. CATL and BYD are strong battery makers, but they are still somewhat behind technologically from their South Korean and Japanese counterparts. And Chinese automakers are still second-class producers even in their own country and they have barely any sales outside China,"

  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 02:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
"The fact that actually we can even contemplate large sectors of the economy and the population working and studying from home is in of itself a pretty impressive fact, given the technology and the capacity that’s had to be created and invested in to get us to that point.”

“We are seeing an increase in mobile traffic, we’re seeing a shift in the peak time of mobile traffic, which was typically around 5:00 pm, it’s now trending more towards 2:00 pm in the afternoon. We’re seeing, obviously, volumes on the network more generally increase.”
- Andy Penn, CEO, Telstra Corporation Ltd
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Just for the record, I'm deeply pessimistic. We could be in lockdown for six months.
Winter is coming, indeed.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
"We are still relatively early in this crisis, the number of COVID 19 cases and deaths are going to shoot up in the weeks ahead," Justin Breitling says. "Also, we are yet to see the reverberations of this shock play out in the real economy. We have a tsunami of bankruptcies and defaults coming at us.

"To put this in context, the US share market fell for 18 months during the financial crisis losing 60 per cent of its value retracing 100 per cent of the prior cycle gains".

"Today we have lost one third of the prior advance, and this crisis is shaping up to be as big as the financial crisis. "When you look at the economic and financial impact, it is already as big if not bigger."

"..estimates by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley of a 30 per cent decline in second quarter GDP growth suggests the impact of the coronavirus will be larger than the global financial crisis."
Watermark Funds, and ALF
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

one explanation from a global analyser
QUOTE
The surge in equity markets over the past 3 days has been turbo-charged by massive short covering.

Prior to the low on Tuesday the risk-parity and leveraged players had largely deleveraged.

However, most of the long-only benchmark driven investment institutions have done very little.

One of the biggest and most powerful forces driving the market higher is the month end rebalancing factor for large pension funds.

Since equities have so significantly under-performed bonds there is a portfolio rebalancing that needs to take place which involves buying equities and selling bonds, to get the portfolio back to model.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 07:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
infection numbers today....

Two weeks ago, it was higher than 2957*

*which is the reported number today, of identified cases
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 27 2020, 07:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

I wonder what the infection number is today?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 26 2020, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

It's best to ignore her.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Yeah and no, eb
He's not a fundie managing billions but looking after himself and his Vocus payout.
QUOTE
There was no time to waste. I assumed the market would tank, but it made yet another all-time high. I took out $15 million of face valuation puts on the S&P 500, and managed to exit some big lines of stock the next week."

The Valentine's Day trades and others have saved or earned $8 million to $10 million since the history-making crash for his hedge fund, Spenceley Investments, which rose in value over February and March to date


But he does go on to say real stuff.
QUOTE
Vocus founder, hedge fund manager and entrepreneur James Spenceley knew he was taking a risk cancelling Valentine's Day plans with his wife to trade through the night of February 14.

James Spenceley: "So many people missed this and screwed up, but if you did the work it was all there." "It was possibly the second-largest risk I've taken in my life. The largest was when I asked her to sell our house to fund Vocus in 2007."

Spenceley says his wife was "pretty upset", but the exponential growth in China's COVID-19 infections made a market crash inevitable, he recalled thinking back then. The entrepreneur, who runs the portfolio for himself and family and friends from Sydney's Neutral Bay, is fiercely critical of professional fund managers who are set to report 40 to 50 per cent in capital losses to this month.

"They just failed at risk management. So many people missed this and screwed up, but if you did the work it was all there. This was way too obvious with only a little bit of work and incredibly obvious when doing a lot of work. "It’s clear from how many [funds] are down so much that they're incredible at valuing companies, but not even focused on risk management."

An underlying problem, according to Spenceley (who previously run Mhor Funds Management) is that fund managers' performance fee structures discourage managing downside risk to protect investors' capital.

In particular, high-water marks on performance fees (often linked to personal bonuses) mean only capital gains above prior highs are subject to performance fees. Inevitably bonus-boosting performance fees are largely only earned in bull markets when a fund consistently beats its high-water marks.

"They didn’t mis-underestimate the risk, they ignored it in the never-ending search for index outperformance," Spenceley says. 20
The entrepreneur, who runs the portfolio for himself and family and friends from Sydney's Neutral Bay, is fiercely critical of professional fund managers who are set to report 40 to 50 per cent in capital losses to investors this month.

"All the [virus] data was there. If I can work it out, why can't a professional fund manager with 10 years' more experience than me? Every manager doing their job should have taken a lot of risk off mid-Feb on the basis of exponential growth of the virus in China only, at that point.



"They didn’t mis-underestimate the risk, they ignored it in the never-ending search for index outperformance," Spenceley says.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 07:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

GWA, whose brands include bathroom fixture specialist Caroma and kitchen and laundry outfit Clark, had in February anticipated that normalised full-year earnings before interest and tax would hit between $80 million and $85 million. The comparative figure last year was $83 million.

But on Tuesday, the company said trading to date had been “in line with our expectations and better than the trend we experienced” in the first half of the financial year. “We have seen nothing to date in our business that indicates the guidance will not be achieved,” GWA said

Still, GWA, which is exposed to a housing market slowdown, was withdrawing its forecasts because of “increasing levels of economic uncertainty as a result of COVID-19”.

GWA managing director Tim Salt said the company was in a strong financial position, with 75 per cent of its imported purchases hedged at US68¢ for 13 months. GWA also told the Financial Review that suppliers “in China are producing normally” and the company had been receiving goods that shipped from China “since early February and have inbound containers on the water”.

“We have ample inventory and supply of products to meet our customers’ needs for several months,” a spokesman said
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 12:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

I sent that chart of "What happens Next?" to a few friends. The reactions underpin the fact that it takes all types to make a market.

- one optimist .... "March 1933 may be just around the corner ... again!"
- more sanguine ... "So how many more of these are we likely to have?"

Seeing the speed of the drop starting in Feb and sustained over most of March, I'm more in the camp expecting continued volatility. And that implies savage drops as well as bounces.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

social gathering restrictions clearly will affect them!
Just how do you livestream a funeral?
  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Mar 23 2020, 07:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
.....balance sheets of the banks are viewed as better positioned than before the global financial crisis.

"Clearly the banks are not immune to what's going on. They're at the epicentre of the current crisis due to the critical role they play in the economy," said portfolio manager Brett McNeill. "We don't know where earnings will land and by extension dividends, although our base case is that both will be cut but we don't know the extent just yet."

He said more would be known when three of the big four banks – which account for four of Djerriwarrh's six biggest holdings – report in May, though "a lot has to play out between now and then".

The big four banks and Macquarie Group were better able to withstand the current pressures on their balance sheets than past crises.

"Banks are in a much better position in terms of their capital and their liquidity versus heading into the GFC," Mr McNeill said. "We think this will limit to some extent the downturn in the banks, but it remains a very challenging sector."
Brett McNeill of Djerriwarrh
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 23 2020, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
asx200 will be hammed today as as we have shut down for VIC, NSW.
seems to be the case. Down 10% at open, with a slight

QUOTE
how do we trade this situation??
- look for the drop (seems to be most mornings), go in with the tightest of stops. close out before 4pm?


QUOTE
do we trade this situation??
- only what you can afford to lose


- and good luck to everyone.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 03:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

A few examples I've seen, Mick.

NBN has increased bandwidth availability by 40%. For free. Govt leant on them.
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-offer...roviders-539504
Netflix no longer allowing HD versions of anything downloaded. Govt leant on them.
https://www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/...nology-51968302
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 21 2020, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Telstra said on Friday it would hire 1000 temporary contract workers, some of whom would come from Qantas, which stood down two-thirds of its workforce in response to the sudden dire outlook for the aviation industry.

The telecoms giant said it would also put on hold for six months the sweeping job cuts announced in Telstra's T22 plan, will scrap late bill payment fees for small businesses and consumers at least until the end of April, and extend any sponsorship deals that expire this year for a further 12 months. It will also bring forward $500 million of capital expenditure.

QUOTE
“We are looking at every aspect of our business to see what we can do for our employees, customers, suppliers and the economy more broadly, while we maintain a focus on long term value creation,” Telstra chief executive Andy Penn said.

“The most important thing is that as many businesses as possible are still here when we get through this crisis."

Telstra confirmed it would pay its interim dividend in full next week as planned.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Still ahead.

It amazes me that this even came to pass. Must have been a drawn out process.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Still ahead.

It amazes me that this even came to pass. Must have been a drawn out. process
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

TLG off lows (or 20c) today on news that Mitsui maybe coming into the picture

- non-binding MoU
- potential strategic stake in TLG.
- supplying anode materials for Mitsui customer

made it to 29c
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Was reading about meat/ butchers... A couple of factors at play.
- good rains, good season. Everyone wants to restock.
- product 'walking' out the door ...preppers!
- no exports of prime cuts by air to Asia


That mince comment!! Wow
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 20 2020, 07:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Friday, March 20,.

Australia’s banks are set to unveil a package to relieve pressure on customers facing hardship amid the coronavirus crisis.

COVID-19 downturn.
.

But the world’s largest central banks announced their latest efforts to support financial markets and the economy. The European Central Bank launched an expanded program to buy up to 750 billion euros ($US820 billion) in bonds, and the Bank of England cut its key interest rate to a record low of 0.1pc.

The Federal Reserve unveiled measures to support money-market funds and the borrowing of dollars as investors in markets worldwide hurry to build up dollars and cash.

The dash for cash has strained markets, and sellers of even high- quality bonds say they’re having difficulty finding buyers at reasonable prices. Many of the Fed’s moves, which are getting revived after being used in the 2008 financial crisis, are aimed at smoothing out operations in such markets.

Investors also appeared encouraged by reports that China is set to ramp up stimulus spending after the province where the virus first emerged showed no new infections on Wednesday.

The price of US crude oil notched its biggest one-day jump on record Thursday, climbing nearly 24pc. With the gain, oil recouped nearly all its losses from the day before.


Major indexes closed with solid gains on Wall Street after shaking off a rocky start. Trading was still bumpy but nothing like the wild swings seen in recent weeks.

Investors were cautiously optimistic after steps by the Federal Reserve and other central banks as well as governments to support credit markets and the economy.

Even so the devastating impact of the coronavirus outbreak is starting to show up in economic data.

On Thursday: The S&P 500 index rose 11.29 points, or 5%, to 2,409.39.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 188.27 points, or 0.9%, to 20,087.19.
The Nasdaq rose 160.73 points, or 2.3%, to 7,150.58.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller company stocks rose 67.58 points, or 6.8%, to 1,058.75.

For the week: The S&P 500 is down 301.63 points, or 11.1%.

The Dow is down 3098.43 points, or 13.4%.

The Nasdaq is down 724.30 points, or 9.2%.

The Russell 2000 is down 151.42 points, or 12.5%.

For the year: The S&P 500 is down 821.39 points, or 25.4%.

The Dow is down 8,451.25 points, or 29.6%.

The Nasdaq is down 1,822.03 points, or 20.3%.

The Russell 2000 is down 609.75 points, or 36.5%.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 07:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Australian Energy Market Operator has shifted to the highest level of its pandemic plan, meaning that the bulk of the organisation’s 900 staff is now working from home, with the exception of operators in the key control rooms and supporting teams.

“AEMO has now fully activated its pandemic response and business continuity plans, to keep the workforce safe and play our role in containing the global spread of COVID-19, while establishing additional layers of protection for our critical operations across Australia’s energy systems,” said AEMO chief Audrey Zibelman in s statement on Thursday.

The AEMO has four different control rooms – one for the gas market (in Melbourne), one for the WA market (in Perth), and two for the National Electricity Market (in Sydney and Brisbane)....
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 06:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Mick,
just as "Plans are worthless, but planning is everything" (Eisenhower)

there is a role for analysis and projections. It would be an aberration if they got it right.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

interest rate settings from the RBA have been at 'emergency levels' since the GFC.

Maybe they'll be like the firies and introduce a Catastrophic setting?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
....Sydney-based fund manager Michael Frazis says he's a value investor, but not in the conventional sense. The margin of safety, 50¢ in the dollar, Warren Buffett-way of value investing isn't his style.

For the 31-year-old son of Bank of Queensland managing director George Frazis, value often isn't found in a company's financial statements. Frazis names PolyNovo and Avita Medical as two of the best biotech growth stories in Australia. Peter Braig

"We're looking for companies people truly love, with loyal fan bases. If you think about traditional financials, backward looking financial statement analysis, the value of having a locked in customer doesn't appear anywhere. "What I'm trying to do is find those pockets of value you can't see. You're not going to get that from typical financial analysis. You can do the traditional analysis, but it's not really going to drive returns."

The fund he runs at Frazis Capital Partners invests globally with a focus on tech and life sciences.

The fundie earned a chemistry degree at Magdalen College, Oxford, followed by a masters in finance at the London School of Economics.

"At Oxford I did a research masters in enzyme catalysed fuel cells, where you use natural biological enzymes instead of heavy metals to do the catalysis," he says. "When I went, there didn't seem to be any exciting commercialisation. Now there's been an explosion of activity, I think over 60 hard tech startups in the past few years. All in tough scientific areas. They're not making web sites.

"They're developing new alloys, quantum computing, cryptography, drug development, vaccines, drones that move like animals instead of helicopters.

The scientist's training has Frazis owning two of the latest members of Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.......

Another ASX-listed burns treatment business the fund owns is California-based Avita Medical. Its medtech Recell device allows a surgeon to take a tiny sample of healthy skin from a patient and repurpose it into a living layer of skin that can then be sprayed onto the wound.

Avita already has commercial sales, but Frazis is most excited about its potential to treat some of healthcare's last unsolved frontiers.

Vitiligo is the degenerative skin pigmentation condition with no recognised cure that reportedly affects around 1 per cent cent of the global population.

"What Avita can do is take some skin that's got pigment-producing melanocyte cells and spray a living area of skin where the melanocytes have died," says Frazis.

"You can see photos of people before and after, and there's really strong science behind the whole thing.'"

Frazis says Avita's spray-based skin rejuvenation therapy could potentially be used to treat common acne scars. Or even in the cosmetic anti-aging skincare market, where tens of billions is spent on pharmacy creams that don't work, or have little basis in science at all.

"That would lead to a huge change in valuation, you're talking about 10 times the addressable market if not more.

"But anybody that looked at the balance sheet, income statement, wouldn't see anything. By the time they're producing revenue the value uplift will have happened.".

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20200211-p53zkz

(Watch 'em squirm)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 08:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
have look at news of all those shoppers


... the overpurchasing amounts to a lot of unrequested and inappropriate donations to the next bushfire appeal (and probably out of date, as well)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 05:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Six o'clock, T.V. hour, don't get caught in foreign tower
Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself churn
Lock him in uniform, book burning, bloodletting
Every motive escalate, automotive incinerate
Light a candle, light a motive, step down, step down
Watch your heel crush, crush, uh oh
This means no fear, cavalier, renegade and steering clear
A tournament, a tournament, a tournament of lies
Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives and I decline
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA_CndlBu0g.....
..
.

.

.and I feel fine
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 18 2020, 06:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Vale, has raised the possibility of curbing or suspending iron ore shipments because of the growing threat of the COVID-19 virus?

Certainly Vale’s surprise warning could very well boost global iron ore prices starting today. Iron ore was the only major globally traded commodity whose price rose in last week’s share, bond and commodity sell-off.

The price for 62% Fe fines delivered to northern China rose 96 cents on Friday to $US91.91 a tonne, according to the Metal Bulletin. That’s up 1.6% from the previous week’s close of $US90.19 a tonne.

Iron ore prices have been held up by supply constraints from brazil due to heavy rain and transport hitches, and from Rio’s lower than expected output from its Pilbara mines because of the damage caused by Cyclone Damien in February.

News that supplies from Brazil might be further constrained is likely to see Chinese steel mills and traders chase iron ore higher this week.

The three big Australian iron ore companies have not issued a statement about the impact of the COVID-19 virus on their mining operations, especially iron ore.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/03/14/bra...ore-production/

QUOTE
. .Amid all the carnage from China’s production, investment and retail sales figures yesterday (not to mention the car sales and airline passenger figures last week), one figure stood out – China’s steel production, which indicates the continuing resilience of the sector.

Monday’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that while there were sharp falls in output across most industrial sectors in January and February, the production of crude steel actually rose – up by 3.1% year on year.

The NBS said output totalled 154.7 million tonnes in January and February. With the one week shutdown for the Lunar New Year in late January and the impact of the quarantines in February, the figure was a big surprise.

It indicates around 77 million tonnes in each month – but the holidays probably trimmed January’s figure back to closer to 70 million tonnes, meaning there could have been a big rise in February.

Seeing output in December was 84.27 million tonnes without the impact of holidays or the virus, a figure around this level in February could have been possible.

This January and February had one extra day because of the leap year but with crude steel production running around 2.5 million tonnes a day, that doesn’t wipe out the all the rise.

In contrast, the production of cement fell by almost 30% YoY, computers and mobile phones by 31% YoY and 34% YoY respectively and motor vehicles by 46% YoY. ..
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/03/17/ste...-of-china-data/
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 09:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Qantas has cut its international capacity by 90 per cent, up from the 23 per cent reduction announced just last week, until at least the end of May in its latest response to the Covid-19 outbreak.

The airline is also shuttering domestic services by 60 per cent across the same timespan. This means Qantas has grounded 150 aircraft, including most of its wide-body fleet.

Qantas' cut to domestic operations jumped from 5 per cent, which the carrier said: "reflects a rapid decline in forward travel demand due to government containment measures, corporate travel bans and a general pullback from everyday activities across the community".
ouch
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 08:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

This is an opinion piece, dropping it in here . I'm agnostic really about the whole damn process. But we have just had the most remarkable couple of weeks, down 30%, swings of 10+ in a day, violent reactions, relentless searching for new equilibria.
.......
In this bear market, it's the longs who made the shorts' job easy

Vesna Poljak - AFR
QUOTE
It's the rumour that won't go away: was Friday's epic rally a Team Australia moment?

It's not for this column to speculate that the mysterious intraday swing of more than 12 per cent bottom-to-top was just a juicy short squeeze.

But Friday's winners had a lot in common with heavily shorted stocks and very little in common with classic passive buying that could easily be attributed to a rebalance: Perpetual (obviously, because it's a bear market), and WiseTech (activist short dependant upon freight).

It was all the more intriguing because no other market was rallying with the same intensity. But as other managers said, you had 10 per cent up days in the GFC. Bear markets are really weird.

Sudden shocks have become commonplace on the Australian sharemarket in the past fortnight.

On Monday UniSuper decided to declare it would no longer enable short-selling by recalling its securities lent out to hedge funds. For the record, UniSuper issued its recall instructions on Friday, but doubts its actions alone could turn the market around.

Maybe it took longer than expected, but the shorts are finally enduring the nonsense blame-shifting they've come to expect in this market. It may not have been the intention of UniSuper but it has fanned a wildly unfair assumption that hedge funds have caused market instability.

Well, well, well.

Many large (mainly) industry super funds lend out shares - entirely voluntarily - to shorts to earn a small securities lending fee. Presumably that offsets expenses and they can look more competitive on costs. It's hardly going to get anyone to the top of the league tables.

There's no good data on this, but super funds would account for at least a quarter of the borrow pool that hedge funds have access to via their prime brokers. Not the majority.

"It hardly matters, most borrow comes from foreign institutions," Bronte Capital's John Hempton said on Tuesday.

"Fund managers yanking their share lending gives them hope that their mistakes in capital allocation will somehow miraculously be papered over. Pulling back stock is almost certainly stock price manipulation, but it won't save the manager's career.

"It also makes them look baggy, and nothing is as pathetic as a hopeless bagholder managing what used to be $80 billion."

If you're using market drawdowns as the time to moralise or disable short-selling, why bother? This market is totally rational. Take Sydney Airport.

It was the most non-consensus short out there at about 0.55 per cent short interest. In an incredible coincidence, it's biggest long is UniSuper at 17.5 per cent of the register. Those are not hedge funds dumping Sydney Airport stock; those are longs.

Banks are all in deep bear markets. Well a recession will do that, it's just a leveraged play on the economy. Next.

Hedging by necessity

Industry funds are hardly typical market participants. This is an interesting time for them, because the sources of their contributions are highly specific to parts of the economy, and Covid-19 is highly discriminate in its destruction of jobs. It's tricky.

Finally, there's the reliably dumb idea of banning short-selling altogether, which always gets a hearing. Gratefully the Treasurer has already ruled this out.

"It does tend to come up every crisis and the first order thinking is, 'I've got a great idea, if I ban short selling the market doesn't go down as much'," said Montaka's Andrew Macken.

"Most short selling is used to hedge long exposure, most shorts are not people taking speculative positions on certain stocks - it's hedging the other side of the balance sheet."

And when people can't hedge their assets? They sell them.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20200317-p54avh


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 17 2020, 02:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
prudent to look at putting money into multiple accounts to with multiple institutions to spread the risk....


and the opportunity !!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 04:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

stopped paying attention at homo dice pacem
....
..

..

.found above the fireplace btw
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

I was thinking about that... It was a "Hubei thing" for about half the period. Leads and lags probably include more lags...

I'd be happy to think it is 25-30%, and March will be interesting.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 04:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

cattus mortuus ?

(then run over by a Kenworth rig)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

was that the bottom?

Conclusion: NO

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/was-that-the-bottom
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

On a bigger stage, but keeping with the theme
QUOTE
So when exactly does a coronavirus-triggered corporate market meltdown officially turn into a full-blown financial crisis? That’s a question many market participants, and banks in particular, must be asking themselves.

If there has been any silver lining to the current market shock and the recession that is likely to follow, it is that it hasn’t been a 2008-style banking crisis — of the kind that jumps like a virus between highly leveraged global financial institutions and causes them to bleed dry.

The Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations that followed in the wake of the subprime crisis were designed to mitigate that risk. Banks, required to hold larger quantities of high-quality assets, were made to do less trading, and more traditional lending.

That worked, up to a point. The virus-induced brake on consumer activity and labour markets, which has in turn triggered a corporate credit run, is what caused the market panic this time, rather than risky trading on the part of global banks.

Today, it is not Wall Street financial institutions, but companies in a variety of industries that are stressed, as a simultaneous supply and demand shock means they need to tap credit lines to pay their bills...

- different pathway, same destination?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

A blip??
QUOTE
China’s industrial production, retail sales and investment all contracted in the first two months of the year after the coronavirus epidemic wreaked havoc on the economy, official data showed Monday.

Industrial production for January and February shrank 13.5 percent, the first contraction since the early 1990s


you'd think it was more like 95%, the way it was reported
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

For Gold ETFs, there's been a marked divergence between pure metal plays (GOLD, PMGOLD) and the miners (XGD, GDX) since this virus thingies knocked tmost asset classes for six.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 06:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Oh, no, not another Paul Kelly

QUOTE
Australia’s deputy chief medical officer, Dr Paul Kelly
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 15 2020, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

The (or A) sensible strategy for investors could be:
QUOTE
 ● Keep up to date on statistics of the spread (and, when it comes, the containment) of the corona­virus pandemic.

● Expect the accommodative monetary settings and fiscal stimulation to be kept in place for an extended period.

● Watch for further sell-offs in sharemarkets before confidence returns and stays stronger.

● Prepare a list of quality shares (or share funds) suited for the individual investor’s longer-term needs.

● Bear in mind that the best times to buy good assets is when confidence is low and a rout is on.

● When it appears time to re-enter the sharemarket, play it safe for a while by “averaging in” to build a holding of the quality shares (or share funds).

Don Stammer
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 05:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Spot on, eb, well done. I understand margin calls happen at 11am for some; this could help

But, and I look at these things daily, by the minute (miss my live Iress stream now I'm pulling back), each day is different.

Traders' rules while volatility persists.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 02:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
The four big banks have slashed the interest rates they pay to savers, protecting their margins but dealing a triple blow to some, with bank share prices battered and dividend cuts possible as bad debts spike in response to the coronavirus.

Major bank shares came back from the [slum in a late rally on Friday as the market rebounded and the Reserve Bank increased the size of its open market operations to support bank liquidity after credit markets seized up on Thursday night.

But the surge into the Friday close came after a horror three weeks; major bank stocks are down by around 30 per cent since their late February highs as analysts expect the number of impaired loans will rise as the coronavirus slows GDP growth and unemployment goes higher.


One bit of info I'm noticing: quite a few of the 'spurts are talking about the merits of cash. Even held in zero-interest accounts. Useful to have around when equity markets fall 30%, credit markets seize and bonds lose 10%.

Stuff like
QUOTE
"I always like cash, and everyone should have 10–20% cash in their portfolio at all times. The good thing about cash here is that, with interest rates at such low levels—perhaps even negative—the opportunity cost of holding cash is low.

Kinda dumb to hold cash when interest rates are 8%. Makes more sense when rates are at 1%".
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
We're fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, ... the day when the world declared in one voice: We will not go quietly into the night! We will not vanish without a fight!

- maybe this is the President we need?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t1IK_9apWs
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

with China past the peak for Covid-19 cases (as reported) they are getting 'back to work'
QUOTE
Ren Zheping, the chief economist for China Evergrande ... [and] ... a former researcher with the Development Research Centre of the State Council, noted China’s focus ... should be on 5G telecommunications, artificial intelligence, industrial internet, smart cities, education and health care
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/...ucture-spending


and Fortescue FMG reckons there won't be a demand slump
QUOTE
The Chinese government has reaffirmed recently their growth targets and one of the levers at their disposal to achieve those targets is to stimulate the economy through [steel intensive] infrastructure investment...

Elizabeth Gaines, CEO, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 14 2020, 11:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Someone's optimistic
QUOTE
“The Chinese government has reaffirmed recently their growth targets and one of the levers at their disposal to achieve those targets is to stimulate the economy through infrastructure investment. And that infrastructure investment tends to be steel-intensive... which means strong demand for steel and strong demand for iron ore”

Elizabeth Gaines, CEO, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

China also going in big on 5G.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 04:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Nine months time, a baby boom? .....China, now Italy. And spreading worldwide
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 01:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

the old fear and old panic, as espoused by Andrew Mellon to Pres Hoover in 1931
QUOTE
..."liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate... it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."...
... is less applicable. Or is it?


World is more complex, interdependent. But what will allow a return to normal?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Meantime, a gunman killed 10 at Porgera, PNG
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/t...834?pfmredir=sm

Googled a few goldies with operations there or nearby ( whether current or not, not going that deep). Page 1 came up with GMN, IDC, RHS, EMP now Intrepid
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 11:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

dropped a clanger there?? Or 2

The old 'dead cat' bouncing along the bottom, today. In this fast moving situation, would anyone hold over the weekend?
(But by Monday, will it be too late?)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 13 2020, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

CommSec has a notice about contacting the call centre being delayed and some issues with notifications (with a pathway to see balance for confirmation big activity); otherwise ticking along

CMC is fine, (a bit clumsier as I no longer have access to live trades, but bouncing between screens and sites can get a fair idea of depth and activity)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 06:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle says an unconventional bond buying stimulus known as quantitative easing is "absolutely" under consideration as the central bank seeks to counter the economic hit caused by the coronavirus.

The global economy would be "materially weaker" beyond the March quarter and there was a "significant hit to economic activity" from the coronavirus in China - hurting local tourism operators, universities and importers dependent on China-linked supply chains, he said.

Dr Debelle had intended to discuss business investment but used The Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney to outline the central bank's perspective on the impact of the coronavirus on the economy and financial markets.

Financial markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut by April, which would reduce the cash rate to 0.25 per cent and leave the RBA out of traditional rate-cutting ammunition.

The so-called "lower bound" is the level the RBA has said it would consider buying government bonds to drive down long term benchmark borrowing costs across the economy and keep downward pressure on the Australian dollar.


Monetary response... Out of juice
Fiscal response .... Stimulus announced today (part 1)

So, QE arriving soon.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 06:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Yeah that lasted all of 20 minutes.

It wasn't me speaking 😨
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 06:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Why isn't gold at $2,000?

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco...ow%3DKitco-NEWS
  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 05:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
sound like to buy them now nipper??


Nope, naw, nyet, non and ochi. But will watch the major miners; China talking of a stimulus package in the trillions

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/...ucture-spending
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 03:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

still headwinds, but ANZ and WBC Book Value numbers are back to GFC levels.

Different regime though, with interest rate settings (@ emergency level, y'know)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 12 2020, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

eb
QUOTE
One more quick thing, many of you have been asking, “when is it time to buy?” I must admit I much prefer that question to, “Is it too late to sell?”.....

....... As I said a few days ago I am less bearish than I was 3 weeks ago, as the markets are down 20% plus, hence I have to be...don’t I?
My fear is that a lot of major global investment institutions haven’t, as yet, done much selling.

I sense that they have been truly shocked by the severity and the speed of the decline.

It worries me that the majority of them bought into the “this is just a hiccup” story and the SARS 2003 precedent/playbook.

- its all happened rather faster than any previous panics
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

.Australian Taxation Office to target cryptocurrency investors with audit warnings
QUOTE
The ATO is in the process of contacting up to 350,000 individuals either by letter or email to “remind them” of their taxation obligations when they trade in cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin.

Cryptocurrencies are considered to be a form of property and therefore an asset for capital gains tax purposes.

.
https://amp-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/...da9d555226e9f11

Night follows day
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 04:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Supermarkets forced to rapid scale networks.
QUOTE
Customers fretting over setting foot in high-traffic retail outlets like supermarkets are creating online and logistical headaches for Coles and Woolworths, with the nation’s biggest merchants buffeted by online buying surges that have stretched delivery networks.

Woolworths on Tuesday confirmed it was gradually restoring its “Delivery Now” service for online purchases in Sydney after it unexpectedly pulled the short time fulfilment service late last week.

The suspension came amid frenzied consumer purchasing behaviour across products ranging from toilet paper to tinned tuna and microwave rice fuelled by uncertainty around the extent of Covid19 infections in Australia’s cities.

“Delivery Now was temporarily suspended in Sydney from Wednesday to Sunday,” a Woolworths spokesperson told iTnews.

“We opened up Delivery Now orders from eight Sydney stores on Monday. We plan to have all 32 stores up and running again by the end of the week.”

Coles is understood to have been hit with a similar surge, with reports saying it has been directing online customers to click-and-collect facilities rather than home deliveries for online purchases.

And while the sudden surge in online orders might look like a big bonus for the retailers, the reality is that both the major supermarket brands have only just made online sales profit margin accretive, with click-and-collect the gamechanger.

What’s less clear is whether the limitations around online delivery have propelled consumer anxieties over the availability of some goods as retailers impose purchasing limits on items like toilet paper to rein-in the run on stock.

Woolies says it is doing its best.

“Like our supermarkets, our online teams have been working hard to manage higher than usual demand for deliveries over the past week,” a Woolworths spokesperson said. “Delivery windows have been filling up faster than usual and we apologise to customers for the inconvenience this has caused. “We’ve been ramping up our delivery capacity with the support of our transport partners and doing all we can to fulfil orders for our customers as quickly as possible.”
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 03:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

BHP has lost its High Court appeal in a tax case over its controversial Singapore marketing hub, leaving it with a $125 million tax bill.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 02:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

and calling in the National Guard to surround a hotspot.
QUOTE
Schools, houses of worship and large gathering places will be shuttered for two weeks in a "containment area" in the city of New Rochelle, in New York's Westchester County. Governor Mario Cuomo said the National Guard troops would help clean surfaces and deliver food in the area, which has a 1.6-kilometre radius around a point near a synagogue
State, not Federal. (Trump hasn't got the intelligence to comprehend, let alone act)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

3M's plus a Big M (momentum)

QUOTE
Joe Biden has won Michigan, the biggest prize of the night in the Democratic primaries, after earlier taking Missouri and Mississippi


Healthy for the future. Sanders was/is a scary scenario.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
"We think (container) trade is down 30 to 40 per cent, particularly on imports. The logistics industry, particularly with the international trade, is a really good indicator of economic activity and this will have an impact, no doubt, on the Australian economy. That's just evident from the lack of flow-of-trade from China,"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/coro...ection=business

QUOTE
.....some TWU members are reporting as much as an 80 per cent drop in containers arriving from China in some ports, with industries linked to the volume of trade feeling the impact.
"Transport operators have little choice but to cut workers' hours or ask them to use up their annual leave," the union's national secretary, Michael Kaine, said in a statement. "Workers are understandably concerned for their job security, with many casual workers left struggling to pay the bills. "Companies are operating on such tight margins that when work becomes unavailable through no fault of the operator or workforce, their ability to pay workers becomes reliant on government bail-outs."
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Thought I saw it somewhere. ....from the AFR

QUOTE
flash crash in the Australian dollar pushed it to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2009 on Monday, as currency markets panicked over rising economic uncertainy from the coronavirus outbreak.

The heavy fall appeared to be sparked by movement in the Japanese yen, which rose quickly against the US dollar, igniting rapid movements across global foreign exchange markets.

The Japanese yen had been weakening slightly against the US dollar through the morning before reversing that decline just before midday.

That trade quickly gained momentum with the Australian dollar diving just before 12:30pm. The Aussie tumbled as much as 4.6 per cent to a low of US63.12¢ in just over 20 minutes, its lowest level since March 4, 2009.

At the same time, the Japanese yen soared against the greenback...
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Panoramic Resources could be back in play, as Andrew Forrest’s Squadron Resources builds a stake in the WA nickel miner.

It is understood Squadron has been buying for the past few weeks, following the failure of Independence Group to get its $312m takeover offer over the line early this year, and is sitting just under the 5 per cent substantial shareholder notice.

Panoramic is believed to have had informal discussions with fellow nickel producer Western Areas since the IGO offer lapsed and its data room closed, but nothing firm has resulted.

The iron ore billionaire’s move into Panoramic may be part of a broader play in the nickel sector, given Squadron and Forrest Family Investments also dropped about $8.7m on extending their position in Mincor Resources between December and February, increasing Mr Forrest’s stake in Mincor to 8.5 per cent, from 6.2 per cent previously.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

wasn't there a flash crash -type event just yesterday?
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 06:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Australian shares are set to open higher, as Wall Street staged a late session rally. The Dow swung sharply higher in the final hour.

"A simple explanation for todays volatility in the #Dow and yields: Erosion of the central bank anchor amidst competing influences from
- Economics: stimulus policy hopes vs virus damage
- Health: China (containment) vs Italy (rapid spread)
- Technical: bargain hunters vs trapped longs,"
Mohamed El-Erian said in a tweet.

ASX futures were up 62 points or 1% to 6027 near 7am AEDT. At 5.45am AEDT, they were down 108 points.

The Australian dollar dropped 1.5% to US64.86¢; it fell as low as US64.63¢ overnight.

Shares on Wall St swung wildly through the day with Dow rising and falling dramatically every few hours. At the close, the index was up 1167 points or 4.9%.

US Treasury yields surged too; the yield on the US 10-year note was 22 basis points higher to 0.76% as of 3.35pm in New York.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

could've elaborated ... sent an IM to Livas. with the link as mentioned by you. And he replied with a Thanx smile.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

And...
QUOTE
This bust will show folly of last US oil reboot

Wall Street must finally, after this latest bust cycle, come to grips with the US energy sector’s fundamental inability to carry mountains of loans and bonds.

The Lex Column - 10 March, 2020

QUOTE
The largest industry sub-sector among US junk-rated companies is energy. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia pledged to ramp up oil output to punish Russia for not agreeing to supply cuts.

The US WTI benchmark dropped almost a third to $US30 per barrel on Monday morning, before staging a smaller rebound. It is down by almost a half so far this year. A wave of brutal distress is once again gripping weak credits.

This latest body blow will lead to more sector bankruptcies in the US, where the numbers had already ticked up in 2019. Fresh capital, and debt in particular, kept flocking to cash-guzzling companies, many of them shale oil producers, after the price implosion of 2015 and 2016.

Wall Street must finally, after this latest bust cycle, come to grips with the US energy sector’s fundamental inability to carry mountains of loans and bonds.

There will be no shortage of capital standing ready to recapitalise the energy sector. Preqin estimates that there is more than $US800 billion ($1.2 trillion) of assets in so-called private credit alone. Alternative managers such as Blackstone can quickly make direct loans into companies outside the traditional leveraged finance markets.

The timing of rescue financings is crucial. Moody’s estimated that recoveries among energy defaults in 2016 averaged a near 50 cents on the dollar compared with the sparse 21 cents for 2015 defaults.

As commodity prices rose between 2016 and 2018, capital gushed back into the sector, which drove up production and asset prices — but not so much profits. The default surge in 2019 included three so-called “Chapter 22s” — companies going through Chapter 11 reorganisations for the second time.

Plenty of blood has already been spilled in 2020. CreditSights counts six companies, including Chesapeake Energy and Whiting Petroleum, whose debt had fallen more than 20 per cent this year through last week.

The temptation to bolster these companies with fresh borrowings is understandable in a world of zero interest rates.

Equity is a more expensive funding choice for businesses that pass basic viability tests. But, given energy’s sharp vulnerabilities to geopolitics and other exogenous shocks, it is a wiser one. Five years on from the first reckoning of the shale era, it is time to learn its lessons.

Financial Times
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 01:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Guess what, folks ... it's back.
QUOTE
from the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Report published in February 2020.

“... business debt levels continue to be elevated compared with either business assets or gross domestic product, with the riskiest firms accounting for most of the increase in debt in recent years.

In addition, about half of investment-grade debt outstanding is currently rated in the lowest category of the investment-grade range (triple-B), a share that is near an all-time high.

The concentration of investment-grade debt at the lower end of the investment-grade spectrum creates the risk that adverse developments, such as a deterioration in economic activity, could lead to a sizable volume of bond downgrades to speculative-grade ratings.

Such conditions could trigger investors to sell the downgraded bonds rapidly, increasing market illiquidity and causing outsized downward price pressures.



QUOTE
The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index above comprises 75 equally weighted credit default swaps on the most liquid junk-rated European companies.

A credit default swap pays out if the underlying company defaults, therefore think of it as an insurance policy.

As the creditworthiness of a company declines the cost of insurance rises.

We have seen an absolutely stunning surge from 202 basis points on 10 January to an intra-day high of 389 basis points overnight. (Friday)

The equivalent measure/index in the U.S high yield corporate bond market saw a similar surge.
QUOTE
Any sign of severe stress, or dislocation, in the corporate credit markets and you will see a swift response from the Fed, and we did, they implemented an emergency cut of 50 basis points. They will cut again by 50 basis points on the 18th March, if not before.

The Fed is in full panic mode.

They need, in market parlance, to get ahead of the curve, but that horse has already bolted and out of sight.

....and with the oil price shock (in reverse) I was reading something about the debt piled into USA shale producers. Another soon-to-be disaster. I'll trt to find it again
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 10 2020, 06:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
According to an industry benchmarking report to be released next week by leading aged care consultancy StewartBrown, a staggering 56 per cent of the 1100 individual homes surveyed are already losing money at an operational level.

Experts suggest that if the coronavirus hits Australia as hard as some models predict, and occupancy falls further, then some community aged care and smaller for-profit operators will be pushed to the brink – at a time when everything needs to go right in Australia’s health system.


QUOTE
"Inside one of Australia’s big listed aged care firms, the attitude is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 08:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Sent an IM (thrice)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 04:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
... entering iSignthis' sixth month of suspension from the ASX boards, the shadowy fintech's only institutional shareholder has framed the latest instalment in its excruciating sorta mea culpa.

LHC Capital wrote to its own investors on Thursday revealing a write-down in the holding value of its 89.45 million iSignthis shares to just 7.7¢ each (they last traded at $1.07).
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

French Govt approval through for the eZ-nergy acquisition


- was never going to be an issue. With dramatic falls on the market today, EOL being hit along with everything else, but still above SP when the deal was announced. One thing holding it back may be the possibility of a capital raise as hinted in recent Investor Presentations; still figuring out what the mix of debt to equity will be.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

it was the phony sell-off before. There was little panic. Now we have it.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Margin calls

(shake that tree)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 8 2020, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

"Why We Cling to Plastic"

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/w...711740ccbd8a93f
QUOTE
More than a quarter of all plastic produced finds its way into the environment. It’s a problem that will only grow if left unchecked ....plastics production is set to double by 2037 and nearly quadruple by 2050, according to Bank of America. Confronting politicians, companies and consumers in their ­effort to reduce this waste is the paradox of plastics:

(just because you're not paranoid, doesn't mean they're not coming to get you)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 8 2020, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

✌️.... " Five beers, please", said the Roman.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 8 2020, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Recession almost inevitable (says Alan Kohler)
QUOTE
The Australian economy was ... fragile, as shown by the December quarter national accounts, and not in a strong position to handle the crisis as the government claims it is.

Consumer spending growth of 0.4 per cent in the quarter underpinned the insipid GDP growth of 0.5 per cent. Net exports contributed 0.1 per cent.

Population growth last year was 1.6 per cent — 0.4 per cent per quarter, the same as the increase in consumer spending. No one spent any more — there were just more people spending.

The increase in population in 2019 was 381,600. Included in that were 268,000 temporary visas for Chinese people, of which 134,000 are students. And then there is tourism. Short-term visitors from China have been running at about 1.4 million a year.

In other words, most of Australia’s economic growth has been the result of extra people, not an increase in the productivity or wealth of the people already here. Most of the extra people aren’t coming now....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 8 2020, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

With numbers like that, I just can't see how there's going to be a V or even U-shaped recovery. There are still a lot of "buy the dips" people, thinking that because the drops have been dramatic then its even better to get back on board.


For me, and it's hard, keeping the powder dry, and expecting a W but not symmetrical and likely to take a long time to get back to earlier highs. I mean, how can the next Quarter and Half Yearly numbers not be impacted
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 6 2020, 11:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

He posts elsewhere. Six weeks ago:
QUOTE
kahuna1 said: ↑
Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ?

Fear fear and more fear.

Relevance of this flu ? Or likely ? NOT much.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 6 2020, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Coronavirus

“We’re seeing that many of the cities around China, people are actually going back to work. We’re seeing some of the shops in Beijing are opening up. When you’re going on the freeway now, you’re actually seeing traffic jams versus, say, two, three weeks ago, where the roads were pretty empty...we started seeing activity pick up a little bit two weeks ago. And then also, this week, we’re also seeing continued pickup”
Herman Yu, CFO, Baidu Inc [Chinese technology multinational]

“It feels to me that China is getting the coronavirus under control. You look at the numbers, they’re coming down day by day by day”
Tim Cook, CEO, Apple Inc

“In terms of what we are seeing currently all our factories by tomorrow will be back up and running, 85 per cent last week were back up and running, and 80 per cent of fabric mills we understand are up and running”
John King, CEO, Myer Holdings Ltd

Aviation

“Chinese airline customers, it’s about 10% of our backlog today. Flights touching China is about 20% of our engine flying hours. How much of that should we take into account? I can’t tell you, but what I can tell you is that year-to-date, flights touching China are down by approximately between 15%ish in January and 50% in February”
Warren East, CEO, Rolls Royce Holdings plc
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 6 2020, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Fractional banking.

9 for me and 1 for you.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 6 2020, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

This thread is Banks Behaving Badly and I can't see this ending well. An ADI guarantee for $250,000. !! I mean, really.

Talk about Socialising Losses

QUOTE
Xinja Bank, which received a banking licence just six months ago, said it has to stop taking new deposits just a day after kicking off a new funding round and crowing that funds flowing into its high-interest savings account had surged above $300 million.

The fintech neobank said it wanted to shield customers from ultra low interest rates as major banks sliced deposit rates in response to the Reserve Bank's emergency rate cut on Tuesday. It refused to cut the 2.25 per cent deposit rate it has used to lure customers into its accounts.

The government has encouraged the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to allow neobanks - which have smartphone-based digital offerings and no branches - to enter the market to pressure the major banks. It is a core plank of the government's banking competition strategy after the Hayne royal commission.

But because Xinja has not started to lend yet - it plans to begin making personal loans in June - it cannot earn a "net interest margin". The net interest margin or NIM is the core driver of revenue for major banks and represents the difference between rates charged to borrowers and money paid to depositors.

"We have to limit deposits. We don't have a lending program yet. Obviously, as a new bank, we have to manage costs," said CEO Eric Wilson. "People are joining us so fast we have to control those costs."
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 6 2020, 07:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

But wait, there's more
QUOTE
ASX futures were down 136 points or 2.1% to 6271 near 8.20am AEDT, slightly paring earlier losses. The currency slid below US66¢.

Near the closing bell in New York, the Dow was 969 points or 3.6% lower, slightly off it session low.

However, the focus was on the bond market where the yield on the US 10-year government note fell to yet another record low at 0.8976%. At 4.04pm New York time, it was 14 basis points lower at 0.91%.

A second 50 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, later this month, is now fully priced...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 5 2020, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Same old twaddle
QUOTE
Treasury Wine Estates is worth about $20 per share should the company be broken up, with the value of the flagship Penfolds business alone substantially exceeding the current share price, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Treasury Wine is part-way through a strategic review of its operations and with the share price having been flattened because of two profit downgrades and fears that the profit powerhouse of China will be severely hit by the coronavirus outbreak, the prospect of a buyout offer is rising

For a short-term one off scalp of excessive and hard to justify "fees" by the intermediaries, and a dubious lift to short term returns by the institutional holders, the future potential income flow is shifted to some OS tax avoiding transfer pricing vultures.

Once upon a time, a prescient observer commented "For every two dollars brought in for such buyouts, the new equity will take out one dollar each year (and adjusted for inflation) for the life of the asset held"

Short-termism is a disease. The only beneficial outcome is to define outcomes along these lines "..Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." -
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 5 2020, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Micro-X Limited (MX1) is an Australian public limited company focused on the design, development and manufacturing of ultra-lightweight CNT based X-ray products for the global healthcare and counter IED imaging security markets. MX1 currently has three products in its development pipeline that leverage the XinRay CNT technology.

Since listing in late 2015, it hasn't really gone anywhere except down, spending precious capital on R&D, trying to make inroads

Then, some action if not traction
QUOTE
Following the Market Update provided on 13 February 2020, Micro-X has now received additional purchase orders for Nano units totalling approximately A$1.0 million, bringing the total sales orders to $1.8million for the current Quarter. The majority of these sales orders will be recognised as revenue this Quarter and the balance in the June 2020 Quarter. These $1.8million of orders demonstrate strong growth and uptake as compared to $0.2M sales for the December 2019 Quarter and $1.9M sales for the whole of FY2019. These additional purchase orders are for delivery to Asia and Europe.

As with the previous purchase orders there is a requirement for urgent delivery within a 4 week time frame. The orders do not specify the end customer use although it is understood that due to the size and urgency of the orders, some of these Nano units are to be deployed in connection with the ongoing COVID-19 (formerly 2019-nCoVor Coronavirus) epidemic.

Micro-X continues to work with its supply chain partners to maximise its ability to respond to any future such requirements to deliver Nano units in a very short time frame.While the standard lead time for the delivery of a Nano is between 8-12 weeks from order date, Micro-X has been able to deliver its recent February orders within a time frame of approximately 4 weeks from order date.

QUOTE
As previously announced, early-stage diagnosis of Coronavirus is by a blood test to confirm the infectious agent, and a chest x-ray is used as an essential part of diagnosis of the development and progression of the severity of the illness. Like with pneumonia, a chest x-ray is used to detect fluid in the lungs, particularly with patients presenting with severe acute respiratory distress. The World Health Organisation has defined a criterion for diagnostic progression of the Coronavirus infection from ‘Confirmed Case’ to ‘Severe Illness’ as a chest x-ray with multi-lobar infiltrates or pulmonary infiltration which has progressed more than 50% within 24-48 hours.

  Forum: By Share Code

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Mar 4 2020, 07:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

RBA down to 0.5% for overnight cash.

... coronavirus tossed into the mix, and what do we get
QUOTE
...major banks bore the brunt of the relentless market sell-off on Wednesday, as investors feared they would be powerless to recoup the cost of the Reserve Bank's coronavirus rate cuts, squeezing their profits and forcing them to cut dividends.

Shares in Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, Westpac and ANZ fell by between 2.5 and 3.3 per cent on Wednesday leading the ASX lower despite the central bank’s attempt at stimulus.

The banks have fallen by 11.4 per cent since February 21 as markets grew increasingly fearful about the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak.

In an act of unison not seen since the before the global financial crisis, the big four moved swiftly to pass on the 0.25 per cent reduction in official interest rates in full to mortgage borrowers on Tuesday. Challenger banks ING and HSBC followed on Wednesday, with 25 basis point cuts.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 4 2020, 05:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
guru marketers
... that's about all they are. I've been 'interfacing' with some fund managers recently, and the firm faith in a V-shaped recovery is alarming. Denial ... current stretched valuations and now co-vi on the loose ...all will be solved by the Fed. Ain't the case.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 4 2020, 01:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

The medicinal cannabis industry has suffered a significant setback, with stock values plummeting as the product takes longer than expected to get to market.
QUOTE
Key points:
  • The industry is experiencing a correction, with people who sought a quick profit from the pot boom now feeling the pinch
  • Some companies have lost 50 to 80 per cent of their stockmarket value in the past year
  • Insiders say the industry's major bottleneck is being able to turn an illegal recreational substance into a pharmaceutical-grade drug


.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-03/medicinal-cannabis-shares-takes-hit-as-market-reality-sets-in/12012010?section=business
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 05:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
International airlines are reporting “no shows” by 50 per cent of passengers as the coronavirus crisis deepens.

The International Air Transport Association has revealed the extent of the impact on member airlines, with one reporting a 108 per cent fall in bookings to Italy, as demand collapses to zero and refunds grow.

Another carrier had experienced a 26 per cent reduction across their entire operation compared to last year, people cancel bookings as far in advance as October.

In response to the crisis, IATA has called for aviation regulators to suspend rules governing airport slots immediately, until the end of the 2020 season.
good luck with that
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
he rebound finally arrived .............. what's next?? another sell off at end of week ?? that would play right into my play book.

hope it does !!

nice rebound, still think there's a second wave
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 08:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Of course that's the RBA.

A rates drop is kind of pointless. Will just get the property market excited. And banks are wedged, can't drop the full amount but the commentariat will have a field day.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 08:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

With eBay meeting today and co-vi running amok, it's important to distinguish monetary policy, which targets the demand side of the economy, from coronavirus, which has largely supply-side effects.

On the demand side, the effects are imited to certain sectors, but where the effect is very significant,; however there is not yet a widespread slowdown in consumption.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Lot of speccies and minnows in a similar boat, Mick.

Who needs cash? And at what price?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 29 2020, 06:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Why on earth would someone need to use a Contact Centre? Don't they know what they're doing?

(good. Send 'em down. Line 'em up.)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 05:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Wilson Asset Management secures Blue Sky Alternatives management rights

Blue Sky Alternatives Access Fund Limited (ASX: BAF) has today announced the key commercial terms to effect the transition of its management to Wilson Asset Management, terminating the existing management services agreement between BAF and Blue Sky Alternative Access Fund Management Pty Ltd.

The BAF Board said it "believes new management under Wilson Asset Management will provide BAF shareholders with the opportunity to gain access to a portfolio of alternative assets within an attractive structure managed by an experienced and specialised investment manager." We are excited to engage with BAF shareholders and look forward to providing retail investors with exposure to exciting alternative asset opportunities.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Should have paid more attention to my own posts.

ASX announcement to the effect that the sanitiser works against covid-19 and it's off to the races.

EHH as a distributor in China also respectfully rising
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

A few takeouts here, Mick

- don't use Twitter
- don't eat weetbix
- as for the Workers Paradise, just thank yr lucky stars.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

At last, some panic. The last few weeks have been like the phony war.

Still looking at -20. Ten for the virus and ten for the overvaluation.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Monitoring the Big Data shipping index will provide a strong signal as to how the coronavirus disruption is being managed.

The index is arguably more reliable than the leading shipping index – the Baltic Dry Index – because the latter is only an index of container shipping costs. That means events unrelated to global demand can cause large changes in shipping prices.

As JP Morgan's Anthony Wong notes, a good example of this is how the temporary supply shock caused by Iran's seizure of a British oil tanker corresponded with a jump in the Baltic Dry Index over July-August 2019, despite trade volumes staying quite flat.

"The main benefit of our Big Data Shipping Index is that we are able to obtain data much earlier than figures from official sources, with initial data coming in with only a one-day lag, compared to at least a week for only a handful of countries that report high-frequency data," Mr Wong said.

QUOTE
The analysts are using the Big Data Shipping Index, created by JPMorgan analyst Anthony Wong, which tracks the worldwide movements of over 50,000 commercial ships, emitting 19,000 radio signals per second.

Mr Wong's data reveals a sharp slowdown in global shipping volumes in February. While global shipping volumes have fallen since the end of 2017, when the US-China trade war escalated, Chinese volumes are still 30 per cent lower than their historical average.

"In cumulative terms, inbound and outbound activity are both running around 30 per cent lower since Lunar New Year, February 7, relative to the historical average," Mr Wong said. "We will look for an upturn in the index as an early signal that the growth shock from the coronavirus has faded."
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Monitoring the Big Data shipping index will provide a strong signal as to how the coronavirus disruption is being managed.

The index is arguably more reliable than the leading shipping index – the Baltic Dry Index – because the latter is only an index of container shipping costs. That means events unrelated to global demand can cause large changes in shipping prices.

As JP Morgan's Anthony Wong notes, a good example of this is how the temporary supply shock caused by Iran's seizure of a British oil tanker corresponded with a jump in the Baltic Dry Index over July-August 2019, despite trade volumes staying quite flat.

"The main benefit of our Big Data Shipping Index is that we are able to obtain data much earlier than figures from official sources, with initial data coming in with only a one-day lag, compared to at least a week for only a handful of countries that report high-frequency data," Mr Wong said.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 27 2020, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

SeaLink warned that sales for its Captain Cook tourist cruises on Sydney Harbour had been hit hard by the ban on Chinese tourists. This follows a weak finish to 2019 for the ferry operator as the fires and smoke around Sydney hurt total visitor numbers.

And the new Bruni Island ferry is too big for Kettering wharf. Specs 101 and they got it wrong.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 08:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

And dropping this in here. Don't really care if appropriate; just that I can find it later.
QUOTE
...the combination of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere and unprecedented containment measures could mean that the infection rate peaks at some point in the next few months. But the economic response will undoubtedly lag the virus infection curve, as a premature relaxation of quarantines and travel restrictions could spur a new and more widespread wave of COVID-19.

That implies, at a minimum, a two-quarter growth shortfall for China, double the duration of the shortfall during SARS, suggesting that China could miss its 6 per cent annual growth target for 2020 by as much as one percentage point. China’s recent stimulus measures, aimed largely at the post-quarantine rebound, will not offset the draconian restrictions currently in place.

This matters little to the optimistic consensus of investors. After all, by definition shocks are merely temporary disruptions of an underlying trend. While it is tempting to dismiss this shock for that very reason, the key is to heed the implications of the underlying trend. The world economy was weak, and getting weaker, when COVID-19 struck.

The V-shaped recovery trajectory of a SARS-like episode will thus be much tougher to replicate – especially with monetary and fiscal authorities in the US, Japan, and Europe having such little ammunition at their disposal. That, of course, was the big risk all along. In these days of dip-buying froth, China’s sneeze may prove to be especially vexing for long-complacent financial markets.
Stephen Roach

- all this talk of V shaped recovery, or more realistically W, maybe U shaped.... But what if it's L-shaped (as in, going to L?)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 04:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

And no real argument with this view, hence my caution.
QUOTE
In the Dot Com bubble it was the misallocation of capital into tech, media and telco stocks.

Prior to the GFC, too much money went into the US housing market and fixed-interest products leveraged to that.

This time, Rod Almeida of MFS argues, too much capital has been allocated to companies that have used debt and financial engineering (including the controversial practice of reverse factoring) to pump up their profits, and have then handed too much of those profits back to investors, instead of re-investing them.

He says the coronavirus is forcing investors to reassess the durability of the returns they’ve been getting – and investors don’t like what the see.

“Coronavirus might be the spark that lights the fire, but from my vantage point what you have is an overvalued financial market landscape, with deteriorating cashflow that you’re getting in return for this,” Almeida said in Melbourne on Wednesday, after another ugly sell-off on Wall Street spilled into Australia’s markets. “Valuations were excessive. Whether it was the coronavirus of something else, I think markets are mean reverting to where they should.”

Mean reversion. I mean reversion.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 03:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Shares are down 6pc for the week as all sectors trade in the red,

Not stocking up on food just yet, but happy to sit on sidelines. Be happy to see the same again, though that may only be after a false rebound. And watch exactly what gets pummeled. .....with the view of buying the strong ones that didn't sink sink too far.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
bought asx200 at open when it dip below 6700,

... hope yr stops were tight.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Whoops . Wrong thread.
No it's the correct one to reply to you, Mr Z.
QUOTE
Whenever I see that argument put, I chuckle.

Flu is a managed risk, but these virus outbreaks are risks that are not managed. Not a Black Swan event, because it can be anticipated; however that doesn't mean it can be predicted.

That said, thanks for the liquidity. Please don't sneeze if you're in the same location that I am.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Correct. I'll dip my toe in the water when it's 15% below highs, and buy with confidence, though selectively, when it's minus 20 outside.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 26 2020, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Volatility = fun??

Hey, eb, good to see you having the right approach for your style and risk management.

I sold a bunch about three weeks ago, and let go of some more shares on Monday open. Now I'm holding enough cash to sit out a year. Trying not to sell good assets at bad times.... But then I was never a trader. Good luck
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 08:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Bots? Or CUV

((as busy as the main street in Wuhan - can I use that?))
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 07:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Accounting technology giant Xero will head the Australian Securities Exchange's new technology index unveiled today, giving investors the chance to invest in the fastest-growing segment of the market in one trade.

The ASX will launch the S&P/ASX All Technology Index or the S&P/ASX All Tech for short, at a ceremony at the exchange in Sydney, with technology minister Karen Andrews and executives from each of the WAAAX stocks (Wisetech, Afterpay, Altium, Appen and Xero) there for the ribbon cutting.

The index will go live from Monday morning and will be a smaller, localised version of the US's Nasdaq composite index.

The executive general manager of listings and issuer services at the ASX, Max Cunningham, said returns from investing in tech have exceeded the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index in recent years, and this new index would be seen as highly investable.

"There are 20 tech companies with market caps over $1 billion, and the index is a barometer of the general health and performance of that part of the market," he said.
Add Nearmap, and do we have WAAANX?

QUOTE
The number of tech stocks listed on the ASX has doubled from 100 to over 200 in the last five years and the All Tech will have 46 stocks included from Monday morning.

The index does not have a set number of stocks and will be rebalanced quarterly. To qualify, a company must have a market capitalisation of at least $120 million, have a minimum of $120,000 worth of value traded every day, a minimal investable weight factor of 0.3 and a minimum relative liquidity ratio of 30 per cent.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 06:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Maca delivered a half year net profit of $12.0 million for the first half of FY20, which was up by 48% on the prior corresponding period (pcp). Revenue came in at $364 million, which was up by 12% on pcp.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the company saw a dramatic increase of 97% to reach $54.4 million. This EBITDA result was consistent with its previously advised FY20 EBITDA guidance of between $104 and $110 million.

Operational update
The company noted that contract mining operations during the half continued for a range of projects, including its contract for Regis Resources at the Duketon South and Duketon North operations, and for Ramelius Resources at the Mt Magnet operations.

Internationally, Maca noted that it has ceased operations for Avanco Resource, which is now fully owned by Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL), at the Antas project in Brazil. The company continues to develop its Okvau mine for Emerald Resources in Cambodia, with Maca preparing to gear up for a commencement nearing the end of calendar year 2020.

Future developments and prospects
Maca commented that its activity pipeline within the mining sector remains strong and feels that it remains well placed to benefit from the consolidation that is currently underway within the contracting space.

The company anticipates that its civil and infrastructure divisions will deliver significant revenue growth during the second half of FY20.

The company reaffirmed its previous revenue guidance of $770 million and EBITDA guidance of between $104 million and $110 million for the full year. This guidance is supported by its recent mining services wins, further civil construction awards in Victoria, and by its work in hand, which is now sitting at $2.4 billion.

The company declared an interim dividend of 2.5 cents per share, payable on 19 March 2020.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 05:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
I guess the Indians can have an off day, but four in a row??
Dubai bookmakers?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 04:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

my friendly chartist/ tea leaves exhumer, Jonathan Pain, has been banging on about gold for a while. So far he's close to the mark.
Latest Weekly says:
QUOTE
When I look at [the] chart I see a long period of consolidation, or basing, between early 2013 and mid to late 2019.

I can’t remember when I first said that I thought gold could reach $1,800 in 2020, but that is where I think it is heading.

Gold has been the classic safe haven asset that it is meant to be, since the outbreak of the coronavirus.

Particularly noteworthy is that gold has risen sharply despite the strength in the US$

As you know there is, traditionally, an inverse relationship between gold and the U.S dollar.

Not this time.

Similarly, as myself and others have pointed out, gold looks increasingly attractive in a world of low nominal and real yields as it is a zero yielding asset.

The undeniable safe haven and diversification qualities exhibited by gold over the past few months will no doubt have caught the attention of asset allocators all across the world.

All of this tells me that gold is going to get a lot of attention in the weeks and months ahead.

In fact I predict that gold will be a topic of BBQ conversation in the very near future.

I felt a bit vulnerable when I said I thought we could see $1,800 this year and now sense the 2011 highs will be seen by the time this is all over.

I have been suggesting that you stay long gold for some time and I do hope that many of you have
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

and expecting a continued rally today
(so glad I held on, recently)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 06:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Molten chloride.

What could possibly go wrong.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 03:52 PM


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Posts: 6,789

Just picked up a 2003 edition of Peter Thornhill's Motivated Money (in a street library)

A quick skirmish..... It reads well, one for the ages. Not out of date in the least. And this gem needs reinforcing:
QUOTE
An asset is defined as something that pays you, something that brings a return. A liability is defined as something you have to pay for.

- classic example: a car. We think it has value because we paid for it and put it on our 'domestic balance sheet', but to run and maintain takes money and its tradable price usually declines with time.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 03:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
...Most of the big Wall Street banks have been culling their customer ranks by kicking smaller accounts out of their investment advisors’ hands and moving them to a manned phone bank. That’s the kind of disdain that Wall Street firms have for those with less than a high net worth....

Similar story in this country. Robo-advice, coded by some 19 year old. I don't think so
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 23 2020, 11:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Expecting gold stocks to rally tomorrow...
And they did 👍

QUOTE
In a note on its commodities outlook, Goldman argues that the outlook for lower US yields and weaker equities "creates further upside risks to our gold forecasts with gold pushing towards $1,750 should the coronavirus be contained during Q1".

However, if the virus disruption stretches into Q2, "we see substantially more upside from here - towards $1,850, depending on the magnitude of global monetary policy response".

Adding that "we see such a rally being driven by the continued search for yield, increased demand for portfolio diversification and higher political uncertainty" with gold being "a strategic allocation to protect a portfolio from geopolitical risks such as the current outbreak, de-dollarization and negative real yields".

A lot of fancy words on offer by Goldman Sachs but the bottom line is that as long as yields still depressed and easing policy looks set to continue, gold will definitely find support one way or another. The coronavirus outbreak only serves to offer additional fuel to that....

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysi...-sachs-20200221
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 21 2020, 06:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

And closed below. 0.6598 I saw.

Poor employment numbers (the canary!) and a quasi-shutdown looming with this virus. So, what do we have? Gold up, flight to safety, all that.

Still playing out.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 21 2020, 07:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Analysis by ch-aviation showed that as of last week, 1215 aircraft operated by airlines from China, Hong Kong and Macau were grounded, or 29 per cent of the total fleet. This included a third of China Eastern’s fleet, or 196 aircraft; the 173 aeroplanes operated by China Southern; the 119 aircraft belonging to Air China and the 100 jets at Hainan Airlines, which represents 44 per cent of its fleet.

More than 100 aeroplanes were parked at Beijing Capital Airport, 79 at Guangzhou Baiyun International and 60 at Hangzhou International.

With airports generally charging significant fees for aircraft parking, it is expected airlines will seek other arrangements if flights are unable to resume in the short term. Already, the two largest carriers, China Southern and China Eastern, have extended flight cancellations on Australian routes until mid-June and smaller operators are not expected to resume services for even longer....

- soon to be 75 planes parked at Alice Springs airport in the desert air!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 20 2020, 10:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Battery Configs:
Tesla’s China surprise big blow for cobalt, nickel price bulls
https://www.mining.com/teslas-china-surpris...el-price-bulls/

QUOTE
...the world’s largest electric carmaker is shifting some production of its most popular model away from batteries that contain nickel and cobalt.

In a surprise move, China’s top battery manufacturer CATL will supply Tesla with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for its Model 3 production at its newly built $2 billion factory outside Shanghai.

The Model 3 is Tesla’s most popular, and the US-made version uses the company’s nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) cathode chemistry. Most other automakers favour nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) cathode chemistries.

LFP batteries are cheaper than batteries using NCA and NCM chemistries but lack the energy density, reducing driving range. LFP batteries power almost the entire electric bus fleet in China and are popular for smaller city runabout vehicles where range is not an issue,...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 20 2020, 10:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
sitting at .6629
..for BHP and CSL dividends 👍
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 02:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

haha, J

personally, I think too many folk are drinking from the Kool-Aid. And quite a lot of people that think they are part of the solution are probably more part of the problem.

But, that said, may as well hitch my wagon in the direction the pioneers are going.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 01:53 PM


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Posts: 6,789

Last chance for the climate transition
We must massively accelerate technological progress away from burning fossil fuels. We must move beyond them almost completely.

Martin Wolf. Columnist.
QUOTE
At the World Economic Forum in Davos this year, two people stood out: Greta Thunberg, the 17-year-old Swedish climate activist, and Donald Trump, the US president.

In their messages on climate change, these two could not have been more opposed: panic, confronted with indifference. But one thing they share is that they are not hypocrites: Ms Thunberg does not pretend we are doing anything relevant; Mr Trump does not pretend he cares.

Most participants in the climate debate, however, pretend to care, pretend to act, or both. If anything is to be done, this must change.

Ours remains what it has been since the early 19th century: a fossil-fuel civilisation. There have been two energy revolutions in human history: the agricultural revolution, which exploited far more incident sunlight; and the industrial revolution, which exploited fossilised sunlight.

Now we must return to incident sunlight — solar energy and wind — along with nuclear power, while maintaining our high standards of living.

The point of this latest energy revolution, however, is not to raise our standard of living directly, but to preserve the only home we know in the state to which life is now adapted. It is to avoid an irreversible experiment with the climate of our planet. So far, however, despite decades of talk, trends in emissions remain in the wrong direction.

What is to be done? Discussions last week at the Oslo Energy Forum clarified things for me. My principal conclusion was that a transformation from our current energy system to a different one is the only option. Some suggest we should halt growth as well. But this would not only be impossible, it would also not be nearly enough.

Over the past three decades CO2 emissions per unit of global output have been falling at a little below 2 per cent a year. If this were to continue and world output were to stagnate, global emissions would fall by 40 per cent by 2050 — far too little.

Relying on actual reductions in output, in order to cut emissions by, say, 95 per cent, by 2050, would require a fall in world output of roughly 90 per cent, bringing global output per head back to 1870 levels.

The conclusions are simple. We will not stop relying on fossil fuels by choosing universal impoverishment. But we also cannot stop using them soon enough, at our present glacial rate of reduction in emissions per unit of output. So we must massively accelerate technological progress away from burning fossil fuels. We must move beyond them almost completely.

If we do achieve that, the size of our economy ceases to be the issue: however big it becomes, it ceases to emit greenhouse gases. But note: to achieve this by 2050, the rate of reduction of emissions per unit of output needs to jump massively.

Is this achievable? From a technological point of view, it appears so. So, at least, argues the Energy Transitions Commission in a number of important reports. The essential ideas are simple. The core of the new energy system is electricity generated by renewable means (solar and wind) and nuclear power. This needs to be backed up by a variety of storage systems (batteries, hydroelectricity, hydrogen and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage).

Reductions in costs have already been large enough and technological progress rapid enough to make this transition feasible, at manageable cost.

This would, however, be a revolution. A zero-carbon economy would require about four to five times as much electricity as our present one, all from non-carbon-emitting sources. In running such an economy, hydrogen (much of it produced by electrolysis) would play an essential role. Hydrogen consumption might jump 11-fold by 2050.

In many sectors, the costs of decarbonisation are (or soon will be) competitive. Yet in some, they will not be. There will need to be incentives and regulations to force the shift. In order to avoid merely moving production, in its most emissions-intensive forms, elsewhere, it will be essential to impose offsetting taxes on imports from jurisdictions that refuse to support the needed changes.

Suppose that a transition towards a global zero-emissions economy by 2050 is indeed technically feasible. That does not mean it is likely to happen as a result of purely economic forces.

This is so for two main reasons. The first is that the cost advantages of the decarbonised alternatives are, in many areas, at best modest. These are not (at least not yet) close to being dominant technologies in all relevant areas. The second is that there is always huge inertia in making shifts to new technologies, especially in areas where familiar methods and systems are to be replaced by entirely new ones.

We know very well how to run a fossil-fuel economy reliably and at vast scale. A reliable, entirely renewable energy-economy is an unfamiliar beast.

A global systems transition of this scale will not happen by itself. It will require large-scale policy interventions, via a mixture of regulation, incentives and government-supported research and development.

It will require global co-operation and clear recognition of the very different positions — in terms of past behaviour, present responsibility and future needs — of the countries of the world. It will take changes in finance and accounting. It will, in short, take a historic global effort of a kind we have never seen before to avoid a danger that still seems remote to the vast bulk of human beings.

This does need to be done. But will it be? Ms Thunberg fears our inaction. Mr Trump is one of the reasons why she is right to do so. We have so much to do and so little time. If we are to succeed in halting climate change, we have to change course now.

martin.wolf@ft.com

Financial Times


(... What is to be done? ) unconsciously ironic?
What Is to Be Done? Burning Questions of Our Movement .. is a political pamphlet written by the Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin in 1901 and published in 1902. Lenin said that the article represented "a skeleton plan to be developed in greater detail in a pamphlet now in preparation for print"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

WiseTech Global said it expects full-year revenue of between $420 and $450 million, an increase of 21 to 29 per cent on 2019.

It expects full year earnings (EBITDA) of between $114 million to $132m, an increase of between 5 and 22 per cent on last year.

Previously, the firm guided to revenue of $440 million to $460 million and EBITDA in a range of $145 million to $153 million for the year.
QUOTE
“In considering adjustment to our guidance for FY20 we have prudently taken into account the potential impact of COVID-19 on manufacturing and export trade, along with the continued growth of the group during 1H20, the power of the CargoWise platform, drivers of organic growth, annual customer attrition rate of less than 1 per cent and continued relentless investment in innovation and expansion across our global business," said founder and chief executive Richard White in a statement.

The company reported first-half revenue of $205.9 million, up 31.4 per cent on the same period last year, with operating profit rising 17 per cent to $42 million.
QUOTE
"Organic revenues from our existing and new CargoWise customers delivered $24.3m of growth on 1H19," the company said. "Growth in organic revenue from existing and new CargoWise customers was 24 per cent compared with 1H19."


And down 20%, now around $23.20
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Change, or climate will do it for you
By LESLIE NORTON

·[/color]
QUOTE
Barron’s: You’ve spent the past 10 years trying to raise consciousness about climate change. Now that it’s all anybody at the World Economic Forum can talk about … you must feel gratified.

Jeremy Grantham of GMO: The last two years have been very encouraging. The previous eight were a nightmare. I used to talk about climate change, and my clients would roll their eyes and ask why I was wasting their time.
But now everyone is at least talking about it. The problem is, it’s all talk. Last year more carbon-dioxide molecules went into the air than any single year in history. We must try harder.

You are also worried about chemical toxicity and just published a paper about this. Why? People are totally unaware of toxicity. It’s growing much faster than climate change. The sperm count is easy to measure and rather personal for a man. In 1945, the sperm concentration was roughly 120 units. Today it’s 40. The quote I used at the beginning of my piece is Paul McCartney’s Suddenly, I’m not half the man I used to be. Actually, it’s about a third of the man. It’s dropping at about 1.9 per cent a year. This is an incredible crisis and bears heavily on the attractiveness of chemical companies. Ten years ago I said watch your tails in oil. Everyone rolled their eyes. Well, in that time period, that one industry is up just over 5 per cent, and the S&P 500 has tripled. This is a huge loss of value.


How do you model for climate change when forecasting future returns? Which asset classes will perform worst? We have a climate change guy (at GMO) whose ambition in life is purely to make money by understanding these permanent changes quicker than anyone else. ESG (environmental, social and governance investing) is great, by the way. Nothing wrong with S and G, as I like to say. But E is about survival. S and G are about good behaviour. One should really focus on E, rather than ESG in my opinion. Obviously, chemicals, oils, fossil fuels in general are looking pointless on a long horizon.
Decarbonising the system is a massive move that permeates every industry in the end. And we will do it, by the way.Technology will make it relatively easy. We will have plenty of cheap green energy in 50 years. We will have nothing but wonderful electric cars that don’t break down, unbelievably efficient. The problem is, when? If we proceed at the current pace, we will be OK in terms of technology, but enormous, irretrievable damage will happen to biodiversity.


GMO manages billions of dollars. Have you considered taking a page from (BlackRock CEO) Larry Fink’s book and starting to divest from hydrocarbons? Let me just say about Larry Fink ... that’s a big dog, and it has a very loud bark. And now let’s see if it can sharpen its teeth. Because its green voting on the big index funds is pretty much dead last. They could do better.


Will we see mean reversion in oil stocks? There is of course a chance of a very spectacular advance. Having said that, if you look out 10 years, this is a dreadful industry. The oil industry is constantly putting out estimates that understate the greening of the economy, and taking a very, very bullish view of what will happen to oil. Every year we produce about 1 per cent more than the oil that we have in the ground through increased technology. We don’t need to discover another barrel, and we can’t afford to burn what we have. An enormous amount of stranded assets will be revealed. So be very careful. That’s not to say they won’t go up 50 per cent or even 100 per cent. But it will be only temporary. You have to be quick on your feet. You have to be a trader. It’s not what we do.


What are some promising ­climate-change solutions you’ve invested in? There’s no quicker way to lose money than betting blindly on a rapidly growing industry. But we do a lot of so-called mission-driven investing, and far from thinking that we are compromising with return, in this case, green investing is the best return from a subset of the entire world of the investment business.


Any other advice for investors? People listen but don’t really take it in. If that continues, climate change is going to trample through your portfolio and kick its ass. And you have to care about it, because it’s not just an issue for your miserable portfolio. It’s an issue for your grandchildren. Capitalism has a way of taking perfectly reasonable human beings who play at the weekend with their grandchildren, who are occasionally altruistic, and turning them during the work week into Milton Friedman zombies working to maximise short-term profit. If you said, “my only objective as a human being is to maximise my own advantages”, that’s a workable definition of sociopath. And yet that is what the corporations do. And we treat them as damned human beings. It’s remarkable. So wake up.
Barron’s[color=#212121]
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

On February 18th, 2020, Royalco Resources Limited (RCO) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.4, following despatch of the compulsory acquisition notices by Fitzroy River Corporation Limited.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 18 2020, 05:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Wesfarmers is taking advantage of record highs in the Coles share price and generally buoyant conditions in equity markets to sell off $1.1bn of its stake in Coles, representing one third of its total holding, marking the next step in its demerger and eventual sell down of its holding in the supermarket group.

After the market closed on Tuesday, and following the release of Coles’ first half results, Wesfarmers announced it had entered into an underwriting agreement with two lead managers to sell 4.9 per cent of the issued capital of Coles. It is using the services of UBS and Macquarie Bank for the sale.

Wesfarmers, whose directors are currently in a board meeting before the release of its half-year results on Wednesday, is looking for prices between $16.08 and $16.45 as it aims to sell 65.4m shares in Coles to investors.

Following the sale process, Wesfarmers will retain a minority interest of 10.1 per cent in Coles and its right to nominate a director on the Coles board, maintaining the ongoing relationship between the two companies since the demerger of Coles from Wesfarmers in November 2018.

The sell down comes as Wesfarmers managing director Rob Scott is continuing to reshape Wesfarmers, which has seen him in the past few years generate billions of dollars in revenue from the sale of its Bengalla coal mine, the sale of Kmary Tyre and Auto as well as the sale of Quadrant Energy.

Wesfarmers demerged Coles supermarkets in 2018 and the selldown has been widely expected in recent days.

Under the relationship deed agreed with Coles at the time of the demerger, Wesfarmers has the right to nominate a director to the Coles board while it retains an interest in Coles of at least 10 per cent.

It comes as Coles shares trade near all-time highs and have risen almost 50 per cent in the last year.

Mr Scott said the partial sale of the Coles shareholding would crystallise a strong return for shareholders while enabling continued strategic alignment and collaboration between the two companies in relation to mutually beneficial growth initiatives.

“We believe this level of divestment is in the best interests of our shareholders and consistent with our objectives at the time of the demerger, which included demonstrating continued confidence in Coles’ future as a stand-alone listed company,” Mr Scott said. “We have been pleased with the performance of Coles as an independently listed entity and believe it is an appropriate time to realise value for our shareholders while retaining a meaningful interest and ongoing connection with Coles, including representation on its board and through our flybuys joint venture.”

Bids are to close at 7pm on Tuesday.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
The negotiations with Wilson Asset Management, KordaMentha, Oaktree and other stakeholders, continue as we work with our legal advisers to settle the final terms of the manager transition. The other stakeholders referred to include the management teams created out of the former Blue Sky Group that are now partly owned by Oaktree; namely Argyle Group, January Capital and Fortitude Investment Partners.

We hope to be in a position to advise of meaningful new developments shortly.
lawyers field day
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
(Last) Wednesday, Justice David Hammerschlag in the NSW Supreme Court gave (Texas short selling outfit) Bonitas a beating around the ears that was something to behold. Hammerschlag said the Bonitas report on Rural Funds was “materially misleading” and then he hit them between the eyes with this: “They (Bonitas) never took the trouble to check with or inquire as to any material which they broadcast … I have no difficulty in concluding that they did not care whether what they were saying was false.”

Meanwhile, Rural Funds’ share price, at $2.05, has recovered to a point close to where it was the day Bonitas launched its attack. Hammerschlag will announce his decision on damages in the case on March 6. That decision won’t just be news in our market, it will be read by ever short-selling outfit around the world.

If the Rural Funds exercise ends up costing Bonitas big money in damages, it will change the numbers for anyone considering a short attack on Australian companies. Or, to be precise it will change how shorters behave in our market..
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/w...d5957c52fed5bdc
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
as the Chinese boycott goes on
.... and this is where it gets blurred. It's all very well
- for ambassadors to express displeasure at extended restrictions for OS visitors from certain places/ regions (in keeping with WHO procedures) (and I guess that's the Ambassador's job, in public at least), and
- for random call-outs https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/coro...alians/11918962 which are not helpful, or
- for trying to shame those trying to help because a cockroach was found in a quarantine facility.

But really, folks. The Chinese authorities, having been on the back foot, have responded as best they know how, I guess. And the Chinese people are participants in the social engineering exercise (a mix of 'tremble and obey' and do something for yourself because you'll be lucky to receive appropriate and timely intervention if things go wrong).

My wife (now passed) was from HK and so I can claim some knowledge if not insight. Communities everywhere can be deeply suspicious and have folk remedies; the Chinese with their herbs and natural remedies are no different. The courtesy of wearing a mask is ingrained and, whether effective or not, was a way of signalling poor health in the way of a cold or flu; a good bit of social conditioning. When we visited HK, and I got run down, the hospital's response as a horse needle full of some concoction in the bum (it worked).

The economic fall-out from the COVID-19 virus is showing up in many ways. Globalisation may well take a hit. Supply chain integration and just-in-time production dependencies may well be rejigged. Travel may not be a boom industry (cruise ships; wow!). Poor economic performance will bring on stimulus that will favour some sectors but not all.

Interesting times.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 17 2020, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
For the half-year to 31 December 2019, the portfolio delivered a total return of +6.5%, more than double the +3.1% delivered by the Australian equity market.

Argo Infrastructure’s share price has also performed very strongly, returning +32.5% over the 2019 calendar year, which significantly improved the share price discount to NTA from -15.7% to -7.8%. The discount has narrowed further since then and the share price recently achieved a record high of $2.68.

And an increased dividend, to 3c FF a share.

Also announced a 1:6 entitlement issue at $2.25, for those being on the books 20 Feb.
QUOTE
OUTLOOK POSITIVE

We expect modest economic growth to continue in 2020, supported by accommodative monetary policy around the world.

Argo Infrastructure has made a bright start to the new calendar year, with the portfolio rising strongly along with broader global equity markets for most of January. Pleasingly, when most markets dropped suddenly at the end of the month due to growing coronavirus concerns, infrastructure again held up well, finishing the month up +7.3% and outperforming global equities which rose 4.4% in A$ terms.

This resilience may be an important attribute in the shorter term, with many global indices trading around record highs despite the potential for volatility due to coronavirus developments, Brexit implementation and US-China trade deals.

Looking further into the future, it is interesting to note the increasing exposure to renewable energy assets in the portfolio. Often this occurs through holdings in integrated energy companies such as NextEra Energy, which is currently the Company’s biggest holding. NextEra uses strong and reliable cashflows from its high-quality utility operations (Florida Power & Light) to help fund its investment in renewables, and is now the largest operator of solar and wind power generation assets in the US.

- am enjoying the ride. Infrastructure = getting rich slowly
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 15 2020, 06:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Generally unreadable puff piece about a company , Carbon Revolution (not sure if Greta would reflexly support or oppose) that tells very little about one undeniably successful Aust manufacturing story.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/w...7c7fee6bd63e9e8

Luckily it's behind a paywall so nobody will know, anyway.

.

But, if interested, world leading and about to scale up and 'industrialise' the production line.
QUOTE
Carbon Revolution is now lifting production output of its one-piece carbon fibre wheels sub­stantially to fit the new vehicles being produced by global carmakers Ferrari, Ford and Renault.

The wheels are about 40 per cent lighter than conventional wheels and cut fuel consumption, reduce running costs and vehicle emissions.

In October last year, the company also secured a contract to supply wheels specifically designed for an SUV of a global automotive company, reportedly Jaguar Land Rover.
obviously not all car owners pay for the upgrade
QUOTE
Earlier last year the firm received a $2.4m federal grant to ­design the world’s first carbon-fibre aircraft wheels.

And something relevant to this high cost economy
QUOTE
“The industrialisation enables us to get to larger markets,” he says. “Which means we will continue to grow from a workforce point of view. But the input hours per wheel continues to go down pretty dramatically. It is about making smarter and smarter jobs and more and more skilled manufacturing. The global market for this technology is huge. It is price elastic but at this point in time there is a lot of demand that is beyond our capacity to provide.”
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 04:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Ex bureaucrats behaving thus (from a minnow Telco called 5GN that IPO'ed a year ago and now moving elsewhere (data centres)
QUOTE
As previously highlighted, a key feature of today’s Australian ICT industry is the ongoing penetration of new access technology from NBNCo™ which in FY19 has connected to over 6* million premises. This represents a growth of 50% from 2018 and this development is now bringing significant disruption to the business landscape, with NBN services now actively promoted across both residential and business customers.

This outcome is notably disappointing given most corporate premises already enjoy competitive offers through many service providers who have historically invested in providing high value fibre network services
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 04:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Telstra chief executive Andy Penn ... took the opportunity to explain ...the thinking behind the creation of an $11.7 billion separate unit that may be spun off in the future.

Penn talked in some detail about InfraCo, a collection of infrastructure businesses with annual revenue of about $4.4 billion. It is responsible for key network assets including data centres and exchanges, most of Telstra's fibre network, the copper and hybrid fibre coaxial networks, international sub-sea cables, poles, ducts and pipes.

Experts in the booming infrastructure space say InfraCo is the jewel in Telstra's crown. They believe it is inevitable the collection of businesses under the InfraCo umbrella will be sold by Telstra either in one bundle or as separate entities.

Given declarations by the government and competition regulators that Telstra cannot own NBN Co if it is involved in the telco infrastructure business, it is logical to think it would be in the interests of Telstra shareholders for InfraCo to be fully separated from Telstra.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/the-12b-hid...20200214-p540tu

so then, theoretically, in 2023 it could bid for NBN?

Watching but not waiting. Ex bureaucrats, the lot of them.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 04:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Telstra chief executive Andy Penn had previously said the NBN Co would reduce Telstra's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation by $3 billion by 2022. But on Thursday he said the cost so far had been $2 billion and the impact was 60 per cent of the way through.

This tells you the impact will be about $3.5 billion, which is the total earnings lost from giving up control of its broadband network to the government-owned wholesale operator..

Which, some say, may be masking a rebound, minor but nevertheless there
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

.
QUOTE
It’s one of the most well-known and high profile advertising slogans from one of Australia’s most loved retailers – but not for much longer.
Bunnings is quietly pulling the pin on its famous tagline.

“Lowest prices are just the beginning …” is, well, ending. At least for now

.
https://amp-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/...9f51ca966088efa
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

G'day, g'day. Interesting, thanks for the info.

Just luvin' my CSL n CBA shares. But the risk bucket, the 10% thrill and chase money, it's hard to find a home. Getting more cautious.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 14 2020, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Ticking. Firing on multiple cylinders. Now solidly above $90
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 09:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Several major rivers feeding the Murray-Darling Basin have started to flow, including the Condamine and Balonne in Queensland and the Namoi and Barwon in NSW. Much of that water ultimately enters the Darling, which has not flowed solidly for years.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority says, among other revivals, the Moonie River in Queensland is flowing for the first time since April 2018. Parts of the Weir, Macintyre and Dumaresq rivers of the Queensland-NSW Border Rivers region also are flowing, while in NSW water is passing through large sections of the Gwydir, Castlereagh and Macquarie catchments.
https://www.mdba.gov.au/media/mr/recent-rai...mmunities-alike

enough for a flood? Probably not.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
On 05 March, some 3,000 delegates from all corners of the country are supposed to assemble at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to kick off 10 days of meetings. It's the sort of mass gathering that, if it were anything else, would have been already cancelled due to coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Since late January, sports and cultural events across China have been scuttled. Cinemas are closed, schools are shut, and the gates of theme parks are locked, such is the aversion to allowing group gatherings while COVID-19 continues to spread. Most restaurants and bars in major cities haven't reopened.

But plans for the National People's Congress, a huge meeting often dubbed abroad as China's rubber-stamp parliament, remain underway.

"Cancelling it hasn't happened since the Cultural Revolution," Chinese University of Hong Kong's political analyst Willy Lam said. "I think at this stage, the possibility of cancellation is big, because there's not only the risk of spreading the infection, but also if the deputies [delegates] were together in Beijing, they may post hostile and embarrassing questions to the top officials about the outbreak."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-13/with...ilemma/11960724

This could be a blow to prestige, to the "authority" and the Junta's claims to legitimacy
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

back up.

TPG and Vodafone allowed to merge; Federal Court saying the "combined entity will create a stronger competitive force against Telstra and Optus."
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 13 2020, 08:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

13/2/20 ...Federal government backs Lithium Australia’s $3.6 million R&D programme for lithium recovery from fine and contaminated waste materials
QUOTE
 Lithium Australia has been awarded a grant by the Australian federal government’s Co-operative Research Centre Projects initiative, to support the next stage of its $3.6 million LieNA® research and development programme for the recovery of lithium from fine spodumene.

 As part of CRC-P Round 8, which targets critical minerals, Lithium Australia will receive a grant totalling $1.3 million.

 Lithium Australia’s LieNA® R&D programme will provide a pathway to commercialisation of this revolutionary processing technology.

 Leading researchers and companies participating in the LieNA® R&D programme include the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Murdoch University, Curtin University, Pioneer Resources Ltd, ALS Metallurgy Pty Ltd, Carnac Project Delivery Services Pty Ltd and Lithium Australia subsidiary VSPC Ltd.


12/2/20 ...Lithium Australia subsidiary VSPC awarded federal government grant in $5 million battery development programme
QUOTE
HIGHLIGHTS

 VSPC Ltd is to be part of a $5 million programme to develop fastcharge batteries for trams, under the auspices of the federal government’s Co-operative Research Centres Projects.

 Working with Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, The University of Queensland and Soluna Australia, VSPC will develop advanced cathode materials.

 As part of CRC-P Round 8, VSPC will receive a grant totalling $1.6 million for its participation (CSIRO, UQ and Soluna contributions will be in-kind).

- different grants and collaborations?

- but really, how much money will be effectively spent. Stretching the concept of "man-hours" they'd be lucky to get 2-3 "boffin-years" out of a mill or 2?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Pretty hard maintaining tight hole conditions and hiding a drilling result. Too many eyes and ears involved in the process.!
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

TH pending the release of "significant exploration results from drilling at the Boda Prospect."

Now a buck, should make yr $1.20?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 07:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

CSL achieved 11 per cent net profit growth of $US1.248 billion and earnings of $US2.75 a share.

The company declared an interim dividend of US95¢ and forecast 2019-20 net profit of $US2.11 billion to $US2.17 billion, up 10 to 13 per cent year-on-year
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 06:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
► Statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $6,161m, up 34% including $1,688m from the gain on sale of CFSGAM
► Cash NPAT of $4,477m, down 4.3%
► Cash return on equity (ROE) of 12.7%
► Operating income of $12,416m, flat on 1H19, up 3.5% sequentially
► Group net interest margin (NIM) of 2.11%, up 1 basis point (bpt) on 2H19
► Operating expenses of $5,429m, up 2.6%
► Loan impairment expense of 17 bpts of average GLAA (14 bpts ex. drought/bushfire provision), up 2 bpts
► Deposit funding of 71%, up 2%
► Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 11.7% (APRA), 17.5% (internationally comparable)
► Interim dividend per share of $2.00

OK OK. Ticking over in a challenging environment
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 06:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Wed....TPG and Vodafone braced to learn their fate:

TPG Telecom and Vodafone Hutchison Australia are hours away from learning whether their $15 billion merger can go ahead
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 11:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Structure

• Entitlement Offer - open to existing PE1 Unitholders, who will have the right to subscribe for 2 new Units for every 1 Unit held on the record date (which is expected to be in mid-February 2020).

• Shortfall Offer - any new Units not applied for under the Entitlement Offer will form part of the Shortfall Offer. The Shortfall Offer is open to Existing Unitholders who have subscribed for their full entitlement under the Entitlement Offer.

• Discretionary Offer – open to other select investors. All new Units that are not applied for under the Shortfall Offer will form part of the Discretionary Offer.

Ambitious.

Jan NAV was $1.37

..... and then there's the sweetener
QUOTE
Benefits to existing investors

• Ability to increase their investment in PE1, without having to buy on-market;
• Increased size of PE1 which could result in increased liquidity for their holdings;
• Increased breadth of the investor base which could result in increased demand for Units; and
• A Loyalty Benefit Program entirely paid for by Pengana.

Proposed Loyalty Benefit Program
• A unique innovation prioritising existing investors who retain their PE1 investment for four months after the closing date of the offer
• An additional allocation of 1% Loyalty Units in the Trust for every $100 million raised under the Secondary Offer
• Eligible Investors will benefit proportionate to their current holding
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Biotron (BIT) 9c

Shares in the antiviral play Biotron, which rose tenfold in value in 2018 after unexpectedly efficacious HIV trial results with its drug candidate BIT 225.

The share rally subsequently fizzled, but on January 22 the stock spiked from 6c to 8.4c as the coronavirus outbreak intensified. It’s been trending up ever since.

Queried by the ASX, the company merely noted that two directors had been recent keen buyers and referenced patent applications and upcoming medical conferences.

While there was no specific mention of the ‘c’ word, punters have latched on to Biotron’s clinical program for ‘pan respiratory’ viruses including coronaviruses.

In June 2019 a Biotron prezzo mentioned “corona” as part of an early-stage screening program – and it wasn’t referring to a 1970s Toyota.

Named after its crown-like shape, the common coronavirus is responsible for past pestilences including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

Biotron CEO Michelle Miller says while the company’s work on pan respiratory viruses continues, there’s not much to add at this stage.

“We have some good advanced compounds we can progress towards a treatment,” she says. “They might not work on this current virus but if it hangs around … we would like to be in a position to have something ready to go.”

She says while a vaccine can be developed reasonably quickly, a drug cannot: “even if we have a compound which is absolutely fabulous we would have years of lead time before anything gets to market.”

By that time, the virus will have taken on another malevolent form.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/02/05/sto...ster-zeitgeist/
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
“ business debt levels continue to be elevated compared with either business assets or gross domestic product, with the riskiest firms accounting for most of the increase in debt in recent years.

Although the net issuance of riskier forms of business debt - high-yield bonds and institutional leveraged loans - has slowed since July 2019, it is still solid by historical standards

In addition, about half of investment-grade debt outstanding is currently rated in the lowest category of the investment-grade range (triple-B), a share that is near an all-time high.

The concentration of investment-grade debt at the lower end of the investment-grade spectrum creates the risk that adverse developments, such as a deterioration in economic activity, could lead to a sizable volume of bond downgrades to speculative-grade ratings.

Such conditions could trigger investors to sell the downgraded bonds rapidly, increasing market illiquidity and causing outsized downward price pressures.

The recent emergence of the coronavirus, however, could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.”


https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...mpr-summary.htm
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 08:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Spot Price... I know it affects valuations, but to get many projects up, and to secure supplies, contracted gas prices are in place.

Beach BPT results are just out, and they talk about how low LNG spot is affecting the East Coast spot price. However, the longer term dynamics are:
• Non-CSG East Coast gas supply is expected to decline in the medium-term in the absence of material new developments
• There are physical (pipeline) constraints on how much QLD gas can flow to southern demand centres, no matter how much is made available long-term
• New sources of southern supply will still be ultimately required
• LNG imports to the East Coast would require domestic prices of >$9/GJ if long-term LNG prices were as low as US$6 / MMBtu

- Guess that's how markets operate
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 10 2020, 05:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Shares in buy now, pay later consumer credit provider Afterpay are up more than 1200 per cent since June 2017. But its meteoric rise is certain to continue to split the investment community.

On the way up, the fintech has ridden roughshod over regulators, posted a ballooning $42 million loss and raised about $660 million in new capital from retail, institutional, and private US technology investors. The two founders sold down about $100 million worth of shares in the 2019 financial 2019 after dumping about $35 million in shares between them in 2018.

Nice work if you can get it, but the investor enthusiasm for the business is not for nothing. Afterpay has been wildly successful in Australia, the US and UK in disrupting traditional credit providers with its interest-free credit offering.

The stats are impressive. At October 31, 2019, it had 6.6 million active customers worldwide across 32,500 retailers offering the service. It added an average of 22,000 new customers a day last November, compared to 12,500 a day in July 2019. Its US business signed up more than 3 million shoppers in its first 19 months and is already similarly sized to its Australian business. In the UK, its Clearpay business has signed up 500,000 shoppers in just seven months.

Moreover, it boasts signs of powerful compound growth potential as the longer shoppers use it, the more they spend.

Australian and NZ shoppers signed up between the 2015 and 2017 financial years now buy on average 22 times more a year. Those signing up in the 2018 and 2019 financial years now spend 14 times and seven times more on average.

But, converting that to earnings? If growth is profitless, what's the point?

QUOTE
Critics argue the business model's big weakness is that the 3.8 per cent fee it charges merchants will have to come down as the number of competitors offering cheaper fees grows.

In other words, Afterpay's business model has a narrow moat, because there's no complex technology, intellectual property or monopolistic market position to stop retailers or shoppers using alternatives.

The competitor roll call is growing all the time, with Zip Pay, Humm, Sezzle, Splitit, Openpay, Brighte and CreditLine all offering similar services – often at the same online checkout points of retailers.

Perhaps a more serious competitive threat is the launch last month of Europe's largest payments and buy now, pay later player, Klarna, in Afterpay's home market of Australia.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 9 2020, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
correlation does not prove causation
, indeed yes, and some of our friends seem to conflate Virtue Signalling with Catastrophism. So confused they are.

(How dare they!?)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Feb 7 2020, 04:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

and DEG put on another 42% today

DGO kept the relativity going, with 16% rise.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 09:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

DGO Gold Ltd (DGO) up on the same announcement

DGO holds 12.1% (up from 10.7%) 0f DEG
So DGO only put on 24%
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

you're right. It's on my watchlist (and b. useless just being there, too. Notional or hypothetical gain, urrgh)


although the Announcement header; 'Hemi confirms potential for major discovery" rings bells. Potential; meet notional. Notional; meet potential.

Shallow - good
wide and high grades - good
Aircore sampling - more work needed, folks
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

if it goes from 10c to 10.5c you can make 5%. It's an interesting place to fish in; best spread in the business
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 02:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Shares in Sydney biotech company working on a cure for AIDS have surged 15 per cent after it said it was also evaluating its compounds for use against coronaviruses, including the new Wuhan strain that has killed hundreds.
QUOTE
Biotron said it has 30 compounds with good activity against a range of coronaviruses, “including human coronaviruses that cause mild cold-like symptoms as well as the SARS coronavirus that was responsible for the outbreak of that virus in 2003”.

“Those compounds can reduce the levels of coranvirus by 90 per cent to 100 per cent in infected cell cultures. "Importantly, several compounds have broad-spectrum activity against multiple strains of coronaviruses.”

Biotron said it was testing a few select compounds against the Wuhan coranvirus, known as 20190-nCoV. The work would be done under contract in specialist laboratories that have access to the new virus, which the company said has only recently been isolated and made available for study.

“Biotron’s priority will be testing its compounds that have shown broad-spectrum activity against different coronaviruses,” Biotron said in a statement to the ASX.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

Yes, agree. My son's now in my house (long story), he's asked if panels can go on the roof specifically for charging his bike batteries.

Sure, I said, just get the ACT govt to let you cut down the neighbour's gum tree that overshadows us.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
Federal Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said as part of a $3.5 billion climate solutions package, the government was developing a National Electric Vehicle Strategy, to be finalised by the middle of the year.

He said the strategy would ensure a "planned and managed transition" to the new vehicle technology so that Australians who "choose to adopt new technologies are supported in doing so".


https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sha...202-p53wx3.html
big numbers locally (lol)
QUOTE
Electric Vehicle Council show 6718 electric cars, including hybrid plug-ins, were sold nationwide last year, up from 2216 in 2018.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

that's a job for the UN, mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

and through $320.

(being in the flu vaccine biz, with a coronavirus around, wouldn't be hurting)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Feb 6 2020, 08:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has thrown down the gauntlet on climate change to countries including Australia, urging them to come to a major UN climate conference in Scotland this November with a plan to get their economies carbon-neutral by 2050.

"The UK is calling for us to get to net zero as soon as possible, for every county to announce credible targets to get there, that's what we want from Glasgow," he said in a speech on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT).

Mr Johnson has significantly upped the ante for the UN conference known as COP 26 – successor to the meetings that crafted the Kyoto and Paris agreements – which Britain and Italy will co-host in Glasgow in November.

"Of course it’s expensive, of course it’s difficult, it will require thought and change and action. People will say it’s impossible and it can’t be done; my message to you all this morning is that they are wrong."

Mr Johnson vowed to bring forward by five years a domestic pledge to phase out the sale of new diesel and petrol cars from Britain, including hybrids. He said it could be done by 2035 "or earlier if a faster transition is feasible, subject to consultation".
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Feb 5 2020, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,789

QUOTE
speaker of the house tore up [^] the presidents speech in front of the congress
her copy of
  Forum: Macro Factors

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