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US ECONOMY ?
defiantbandit
post Posted: May 28 2015, 11:33 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ May 22 2015, 12:23 AM

Many long term forecasts are saying the economy will expand by 1.8 to 2%. This suggests slow economic growth, because of the obvious reasons like rising interest rates and debts. According to CBO, by the end of 2014, debt stood around 12.8 trillion or 74% of GDP and are expected to rise even more.

 
flower
post Posted: May 22 2015, 12:23 AM
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Everybody keeps saying the US economy is improving, but that is not what the Mr and Mrs US average seem to believe:
(Bloomberg tonight)
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"Americans' expectations for the economy slumped in May by the most since October 2013, casting doubt on consumers' ability to revive growth.A measure tracking the economic outlook fell by 6 points to 44 this month, data from the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed Thursday. Thirty-nine percent said the U.S. economy is getting worse, the largest share since the federal government shutdown 19 months ago.

"The increase in negative expectations occurred among a disparate collection of groups, indicating a generalized retrenchment," Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates LLC in New York, which produces the data for Bloomberg, said in a statement.

The weekly sentiment index dropped to 42.4 in the period ended May 17, the lowest since mid-December, from 43.5 as fewer consumers said now was a good time to spend. Such angst, particularly among lower-income households, probably has its roots in steadily climbing prices at the gas pump and limited wage gains.

"Despite positive employment and housing reports, consumer concerns may reflect still-stagnant wages as well as sharp divisions between higher- and lower-income groups in economic views," Langer said. "The latest stumble makes clear that economic travails continue for many Americans."

The U.S. economy has largely disappointed this year, with weaker-than-expected retail sales data last week capping a recent run of reports showing scant momentum. Consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70 percent of gross domestic product, climbed at a 1.9 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, the slowest in a year and less than half the 4.4 percent advance in the final three months of 2014."""

etc etc etc.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...most-since-2013



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 28 2015, 06:13 AM
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Two interesting articles from Bloombergs.

This one here
QUOTE
Three months ago, bond traders were bracing for deflation in the U.S.
Now, they’re starting to worry about inflation -- and snapping up a record share of Treasuries that offer some protection.
So what’s changed? Part of the answer, of course, has to do with oil, which arrested what seemed like an unrelenting slide that pushed prices from more than $100 a barrel to less than $50 in a span of five months.
But perhaps just as important is the bond market’s changing perception of the Federal Reserve. Instead of worrying about how the Fed’s zeal to roll back its policy of holding interest rates near zero might choke off growth, bond traders are now confident the central bank will let the economy regain the momentum it lost with oil’s plunge before raising borrowing costs.
“We’ve been through the negative impact” of oil, said James Evans, a New York-based money manager at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., which oversees about $15 billion. “And the Fed is still going to be very cautious about raising rates. The foundation is there for higher inflation.”
Evans said he’s been buying Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, due in five to 10 years.
He’s among a growing number who are embracing the inflation story. Trading in the securities as a percentage of total Treasuries volume reached an all-time high of about 2.75 percent this month, Fed data tracked by Barclays Plc shows.

Investors have also purchased 72 percent of the TIPS auctioned by the Treasury Department this year, the greatest proportion since at least 2003.
Increased demand for inflation protection has coincided with an upturn in the bond market’s expectations for how much consumer prices will rise in coming years. Faster inflation erodes the buying power of fixed-rate payments of bonds.


and this one

QUOTE
Exchange-traded funds that hold U.S. Treasuries are seeing more cash inflows this month than any other fixed-income funds for the first time this year.
U.S. government debt ETFs have brought in $1.5 billion since March, according to Bloomberg data. If that trend holds, it will be the first time since October that inflows into the funds will outpace those of other bond ETFs.
The inflows suggest investors are heading for cover as they pull cash from ETFs investing in U.S. stocks, which lost $5.8 billion in the first three weeks of April, even as the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed to a record high.
“There seems to be a broader trend of people lowering their risk,” said Eric Balchunas, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.
Most of the cash went into the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, which trades under the ticker SHY and has $8.7 billion in assets. That indicates investors are more worried about the outlook for risky assets and liquidity in the bond market, and less concerned about the potential for a rate increase from the Federal Reserve at its meeting this week. Most economists expect the Fed to raise rates at their meeting in September, according to a recent poll.
“The worry is that if the Fed does surprise, there may be some liquidity problems in riskier assets,” said Guy Haselmann, an interest-rate strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia in New York, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. Investors “don’t want to be a forced seller if there’s low liquidity.”


The market seems to be agreeing with those who see risk in the DOW getting uncomfortable.
I may have to consider selling some more of my US stocks.
Been a great run though! biggrin.gif

Mick



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flower
post Posted: Apr 27 2015, 01:04 PM
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In Reply To: eBear's post @ Apr 27 2015, 11:18 AM

QUOTE
here's something that goes back to '88 - monthly chart.


e-Bear, thanks, that's exactly what I wanted.

To slot that chart into the context of what we face today--ie the FOMC meeting at which some momentous decisions have to be taken--ie "do we actually increase interest rates"---or put them off for another day or "forget we ever said it".

Going back to your chart the NASDAQ last peaked @ 5046.86 on March 10th 2000, it then collapsed to make a low on October 9th 2002 after losing 78% of its prior value.

No go forward to the enclosed Nasdaq chart of today where it closed trading @ 5092.085, slightly creating another new high.

Consider this: Greenspan was FED chairman from 1987 -2006, during his reign he took US rates from 3.7% in 2001 to 1% in 2004, remember dot com dot bomb ran from 1995 to 2000, Bernanke seemed to endorse Greenspan's overall policy, leaving it for Janet Yellen's problem to solve.

IMO the truly alarming fact is that the FED have in effect appear to have printed around USD4 trillion over 15 years to achieve a new high in the NASDAQ without really solving any of the underlying employment problems in the US.

So the question maybe we should all be asking is "What Now"? Which is why the upcoming FED meeting might be so important to us all.

Please understand these figures/dates are only what I have been able to ascertain myself and may not be completely accurate.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  in_reply.gif ( 16.45K ) Number of downloads: 29

 




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eBear
post Posted: Apr 27 2015, 11:18 AM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 24 2015, 11:03 AM

Flower, here's something that goes back to '88 - monthly chart.
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Attached File  NASDAQ.jpg ( 210.1K ) Number of downloads: 39

 




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"There is no present or future-only the past, happening over and over again-now"

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 24 2015, 11:34 AM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 24 2015, 11:03 AM


QUOTE
Current NASDAQ chart of concern given the decades of effective negative interest rates and QE in the US


Well, based on that logic, the swiss are in deep dodo.
Rather than "effective" negative interest rates, they have actual negative interest rates.
QUOTE
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) said on Wednesday it was considerably reducing the number of institutions exempt from negative rates on their cash deposits held at the central bank.

The SNB charges 0.75 percent on some Swiss franc deposits to try to deter speculative flows into the currency. This measure has also hit Swiss savers and the 673 billion Swiss franc ($700 billion) pension fund industry, which is subject to fees on its franc deposits.


Rueters

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 


flower
post Posted: Apr 24 2015, 11:03 AM
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Current NASDAQ chart of concern given the decades of effective negative interest rates and QE in the US icon14.gif

Has anybody got a 20year NASDAQ chart they can post?
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Attached File  NASDAQ.gif ( 13.43K ) Number of downloads: 30

 




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boy
post Posted: Feb 6 2015, 04:52 AM
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In Reply To: wren's post @ Feb 5 2015, 07:42 AM

I dont think the US is over but its economy is untenable as things stand.

If a stock was once 20 times its current value I would imagine it would be worth looking at to see if the correction wasnt over done.

 
eshmun
post Posted: Feb 5 2015, 10:19 PM
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In Reply To: boy's post @ Feb 5 2015, 06:02 PM

Sorry boy. Your reply was so obscure I thought it was directed at me. By the way I'm not immune to bouts of speculation myself.


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flower
post Posted: Feb 5 2015, 07:24 PM
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In Reply To: boy's post @ Feb 5 2015, 06:06 PM

QUOTE
It would have been in the mid or may be late 70s, In NZ, a few hundred kms south of Auckland on the west coast. It was a Kubota about 35hp.


Thought so---try going side on to the hill with a two wheel drive 1960 Fordson!

However on a D4 or Track Marshall you can do anything, but do remember during the winter in the NH to overnight park said crawler on two stout wooden planks, or in the morning you wont be going anywhere since the beast is frozen solid onto the soil.

btw: Avoid the early D4's that had a donkey engine to turn the main engine over to get compression up. Those 2 cylinder petrol donkey engines were pigs to start via a rope pull start system.



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