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China the monster.
nipper
post Posted: Sep 9 2019, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE
In the second quarter of this year, official Chinese data showed economic growth of 6.2 per cent, close to Beijing’s target and within a percentage point of what it has reported every quarter for the past four and a half years.

A few months earlier, satellites monitoring Chinese industrial hubs suggested parts of the world’s largest trading economy were contracting. An index of Chinese industrial production created by a multinational manufacturer was pointing to lower growth than official figures. And a web-search index used to gauge how many workers return to their jobs after the Lunar New Year holidays was down sharply from a year earlier.

Beneath China’s stable headline economic numbers, there is a growing belief among economists, companies and investors around the world that the real picture is worse than the official data. That has analysts and researchers crunching an array of alternative data -- from energy consumption to photos taken from space -- for a more accurate reading.

Their conclusion: China’s economy isn’t tanking, but it is almost certainly weaker than advertised. Some economists who have dissected China’s GDP numbers say more accurate figures could be up to 3 percentage points lower, based on their analysis of corporate profits, tax revenue, rail freight, property sales and other measures of activity that they believe are harder for the government to fudge.

China, whose GDP topped $US13 trillion last year, is still growing, and the alternative data points to that. It indicates the deceleration is happening in areas such as manufacturing. In many cases, alternative indicators have previewed the path of official data and show the depth of the challenges Chinese authorities face....
WSJ
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/t...d7a7c76e55bbf63



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 16 2019, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE
"So many manufacturers are moving out of China at breakneck speed. You don't see it in the China-reported GDP growth numbers yet. I suspect that sooner or later it will be visible”

Magnus Nicolin, CEO, Ansell Ltd




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 21 2019, 01:57 PM
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Debt... The bigger monster

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-...enya/ar-AAEA94x



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 29 2019, 09:47 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 29 2019, 08:49 AM

nip - as was pointed out on macrobusiness this would be more of a Bear Stearns moment than a Lehman moment. Just as the US government bailed out Bear Stearns the Chinese have bailed out Baoshang Bank. The Lehman moment broke the dam wall because the authorities refused to bail them out causing a massive systemic shock.

I like how they said that Baoshang Bank had been reporting non-performing loans at only 2% until the muck hit the fan.


Anecdote time: Many years ago I had a meeting with the boss of a second tier Chinese financial entity who insisted that they had absolutely no non-performing loans. Knowing that his firm was based in a part of China that just had a real estate bust I quizzed him on the claim but he refused to budge. Afterwards one of the locals explained to me that if the financial entity did not insist that borrowers pay them back then the loans would not be classed as non-performing even if no repayments had been made. Moreover the rumour was that this financial entity had close working relationships with associates of the PLA and the provincial government so it had virtually an unlimited source of funds (from the provincial government) and had no wish to offend the PLA associates by asking them to repay the loans. No doubt China has tightened up a lot since then but I suspect that a lot of these financial entities would fold the moment various Chinese governments withheld their backing for them.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: Jun 29 2019, 08:49 AM
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A Lehman moment?

QUOTE
Key points:
- China's central bank has pumped $125b into the financial system following the collapse of the Baoshang Bank

- The collapse triggered the first ever intrabank default in China, strangling credit to small banks and driving up borrowing costs

- There are fears the tighter credit conditions will further hit a slowing Chinese economy

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-28/b...ection=business



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 16 2019, 10:23 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 16 2019, 04:30 PM

Good point nip. Back in 1989 it was the visit by Gorbachev of the USSR to Beijing in mid May that caused the Chinese leadership to play nice for a while. They even kept Zhao Ziyang on as General Secretary of the Communist Party for Gorbachev's visit but within days he had been effectively purged and it had been decided to impose martial law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Sino-Soviet_Summit



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 


nipper
post Posted: Jun 16 2019, 04:30 PM
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While Beijing is publicly ­arguing the [extradition law] issue is one for the Hong Kong government, it its making its views of the situation on its southern border crystal clear.
QUOTE
“Any civilised society ruled by law cannot tolerate illegal ­behaviours that devastate peace and tranquillity and defy the law,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said.
(lol) (don't mention Huawei)

- any (temporary) back down by Beijing is merely a cosmetic nod to the upcoming G20 meeting.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
jacsar
post Posted: Jun 3 2019, 12:01 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 2 2019, 04:21 PM

thanks nipper, was on one of the Qantas crews that was part of the evacuation of westerners out of Beijing.. photos always bring back many memories


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nipper
post Posted: Jun 2 2019, 04:21 PM
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The thread title is China the Monster. Thirty years on ....

https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/20...ng-on-for-china



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
PeterH
post Posted: May 5 2019, 10:49 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ May 5 2019, 08:04 AM

Kyle Bass is nearly always the smartest guy in the room. Trouble is that he is an American, worse still, a Texan. And Americans just don't get China. They don't get Asia. They don't get anywhere in the world other than the USA. So while he has an extraordinarily incisive and quick mind, his output must be seen in the framework of his handicap.

Bass can still be seen regularly on Real Vision and I would never fail to watch whenever he shows up, but you have to pay for it. He now also appears on Real Vision sometimes as an interviewer of other gurus and he is possibly at his best in this role.
Another guy I would rate with Bass is Jim Grant who also shows up on Real Vision, although we haven't seen him recently. He has possibly a better world view than Bass.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  mullokintyre  
 
 


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