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HZN, HORIZON OIL LIMITED
lgrif
post Posted: Mar 7 2018, 11:34 AM
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After 3+ years of going down, HZN sp improving. Debt reduction probably one reason, but perhaps it's PNG gas project is looking more realistic. 20c minor resistance, and 30c a possibility (I hope) dyor.

 
Brierley
post Posted: Dec 29 2016, 11:28 AM
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In Reply To: abner29's post @ Dec 29 2016, 05:49 AM

Its a fair distance away
I think the main relevance to HZN re the Murak result, is the more dusters the PNGLNG jv drill, the better chance they will want HZN's stranded gas for any additional trains.
So far Murak looks ok, but waiting on final results.


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abner29
post Posted: Dec 29 2016, 05:49 AM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Dec 22 2016, 01:45 PM

Anyone have an idea as to the relative location of Horizon Oil properties to the new Muruk discovery by Oil Search/ExxonMobil?

 
Brierley
post Posted: Dec 22 2016, 01:45 PM
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In Reply To: abner29's post @ Dec 3 2016, 02:18 AM

HZN sp finally looking a bit healthier.
Some positive comments coming out of the PNG Mining and Petroleum Conference earlier this month.
Sounds like the PNG gov could be the catalyst for a deal to tap the stranded gas resources.
Not holding my breath for when though.


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abner29
post Posted: Dec 3 2016, 02:18 AM
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Re prospective interest in SE Asia cheap energy assets. Looks like opportunistic funds available. See article:

Private Equity Funds, Former Oil Execs Eye Southeast Asia Energy Assets

by Reuters|Jessica Jaganathan|Friday, December 02, 2016



Private Equity Funds, Former Oil Execs Eye Southeast Asia Energy Assets
Flush with cash, private equity-backed firms and former oil industry executives are eyeing energy assets in Southeast Asia.
Reuters

SINGAPORE, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Flush with cash, private equity-backed firms and former oilindustry executives are eyeing energy assets in Southeast Asia as prolonged lower crude prices drive oil majors hungry for cash to divest or seek additional funds.

The firms are banking on a rapid rise in economic growth in Southeast Asia - a region ripe with cheaper and smaller oil and gas fields which are nearing production - to boost oil demand and in turn enable them to resell the assets within a few years at a profit.

Global investment firms such as KKR and Co and The Carlyle Group are backing Southeast Asia-focused oil and gas companies while at least half a dozen senior oil and gas professionals have left illustrious careers with oil majors to join funds or set up their own companies, industry sources told Reuters.

"There is definitely a trend of more private equity firms coming in and looking for good valuations and good opportunities," said Michael Arruda, a partner in Baker Botts law firm in Hong Kong.

"(They) are coming in particular as some of the oil majors are going through downsizing and selloffs and they (private equity firms) are looking for the right sized pieces to pick up."

Investors are zeroing in on upstream assets in Southeast Asia where economies are flexible and smaller, "digestible" assets are becoming available, said Arruda.

While private equity firms have tried Southeast Asian energy previously, at least one of them had to exit after being hit by the plummet in oil prices last year.

But lower valuations of oil and gas assets are prompting renewed interest in the sector, said Philip Jeyaretnam, chief executive of law firm Dentons Rodyk.

In an Ernst and Young survey earlier this year of 100 managing directors and partners from private equity firms, all of them expected to see more involvement in the Asia-Pacific oil and gas sector, up from 79 percent in a 2013 survey.

While long-term fundamentals for oil demand remain robust, low oil prices are putting pressure on the sector, resulting in operational challenges and increasing debt, said Sanjeev Gupta, head of Ernst and Young's Asia-Pacific Oil and Gas division.

Industry tracker Preqin says about 17 percent of private equity firms are investing in oil and gas globally and about two-thirds of them have a preference for Asia.

WHO'S GETTING INVOLVED

While actual oil and gas investments by private equity in Southeast Asia have yet to materialise in significant numbers, more firms are indicating their increased interest and attending deal-making meetings, oil and gas lawyers told Reuters.

So far, Mandala Energy, a southeast Asia focused oil and gas company backed by KKR is one of few to have invested.


It will invest almost $180 million for a 35 percent stake in the Lemang production-sharing contract from Ramba Energy's subsidiary PT Hexindo Gemilang Jaya in Indonesia last year, according to Mandala's website.

KKR declined to comment on its oil and gas investments, while Carlyle Group did not respond to Reuters' request for comment.

Private equity-backed firms typically budget about $100 to $200 million for each investment and are looking for assets either in production or close to production they can exit in 5-10 years, the oiland gas lawyers told Reuters.

Bill Lafferrandre, who recently retired from ConocoPhillips after 31 years to co-found exploration and production firm Sea Dragon Resources, said it was a "great time" to acquire assets.

"The quality of assets that are in the market are improving...and buyer and seller expectations are coming more into balance now as prices have stayed lower for quite a bit longer," he said.

Lafferrandre is currently looking to acquire upstream oil and gas assets in countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, using funds from private equity and other investors.

He estimates there are more than 50 attractive oil and gas assets in the appraisal to development stages, and sellers' expectations of asset prices have come down by 25 to 30 percent in the past year.

Global private equity firm Warburg Pincus opened an office in Singapore this year to explore opportunities across Southeast Asia, while Warburg Pincus backed-AAG Energy, private equity funds Global Natural Resource Investments, Blue Water Energy and Kerogen Capital are looking to invest in the region, industry sources said.

AAG said it submitted a bid to acquire certain oil and gas assets but did not specify if these assets were in Southeast Asia. Warburg Pincus declined to comment while the other companies did not respond to Reuters' request for comment.

At least half a dozen senior management staff at oil and gas companies, including Lafferrandre, Paul Blakeley who spent more than 20 years at Repsol-owned Talisman Energy Inc and Geoff Freer, who was with Mubadala Petroleum, are also looking to raise funds to invest in the energy space in the region, according to their LinkedIn profiles.

(Additional reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 2 2016, 10:49 AM
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In Reply To: abner29's post @ Dec 2 2016, 10:36 AM

abner, basically I agree (with usual caveats).

Usual caveats include what you said "LNG plentiful and cheap", but new projects expensive and complex to bring to fruition, and whether someone will bankroll development, with all the 'noise' affecting the decision-making process.

On a sheer shareprice issue, there's lots of stale money sitting in O&G that wants to get out because of these peripheral, ancillary inputs, and this will dampen capitalisations for a while yet. (and this caveat; mere 'Back of the Envelope' thinking on exhibition here)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


abner29
post Posted: Dec 2 2016, 10:36 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 2 2016, 09:08 AM

Nipper,
It's doubtful that O&G will be replaced by the green alternatives in the next couple decades although who knows? Even coal usage won't be completely ended. Natural gas appears to be plentiful and cheap. PNG has attraction as an LNG supplier for its geographical access to Asian markets. Players like Total and Exxon see the attraction, making sense to them so why not us? The valuation metrics re HZN assets in PNG suggest that it should have attraction as a takeover candidate given its current SP and otherwise a long term play on its maturing PNG assets.

 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 2 2016, 09:08 AM
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In Reply To: abner29's post @ Dec 2 2016, 08:17 AM

QUOTE
As a shareholder of long standing (admit being major underwater)
but it's been hard to keep the faith for O&G. Got to admit there are headwinds - shale as swing producers, OPEC sticking to quota, declining usage/ 'green' subsidies for alternatives. And the big one:- is it still cyclical, or will the boom/ bust pattern be broken?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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abner29
post Posted: Dec 2 2016, 08:17 AM
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Quite a comprehensive and illuminating exposition of the Horizon Oil status and outlook. Obvious management and board feel the share price has been severely depressed by instos and public shareholders lack of understanding how current and projected production income from the Beibu and Maari sources will adequately amortize HZN debt. Independent valuation of HZN assets suggest a valuation multiple of the current SP. Further, prospects for the PNG holdings provide dramatic opportunity for corporate success. An outside source would seem to confirm this as evident to ones viewing the detailed presentation of Oil Search November Investor Visit as issued earlier today. It can be accessed at: http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?...SX&N=985598, or off the Oil Search website file. The combined efforts of super majors ExxonMobil and Total, with partners, to further expand and grow oil & gas production in PNG detail the inclusion of HZN already defined and prospective holdings in these expansion efforts. Of course, this massive LNG expansion will take time to come on stream, but the future for HZN cannot be underestimated. Current and prospective shareholders with patience should be amply rewarded.

As a shareholder of long standing (admit being major underwater) I'm encouraged by current prospects.

 
Brierley
post Posted: Jul 26 2016, 02:26 PM
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In Reply To: abner29's post @ Jul 24 2016, 08:29 AM

I think it hinges on the proposed pipeline, P'nyang to PNG LNG project.

Until the pipeline construction gets the greenlight, HZN's 1tcf gas resource at PRL21 is a stranded asset at current oil prices.

In some ways, that's the punt on HZN, will the pipepine go ahead or not, and if so, when ?


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