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CPL, COALSPUR MINES LIMITED
Hotfire
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 12:57 PM
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In Reply To: mcart117's post @ Apr 18 2013, 12:31 PM

mcart...maybe you weren't...lol

CPL management did a piss poor announcement in trying to disguise that they haven't achieved the Finance Solution.

The only thing that came out today was EIG bumped up $350mil (from $300mil) but where were all the other interested parties for the balance????

It is a tyre kicking environment, CPL will need to raise cash for the balance, shorters that have plagued this stock (correctly it seems) will drive it lower.

These guys needed to provide a definitive solution on resumption> They have had enough chances, sadly for me I cannot give them another chance.

Will look again when they offer the market clarity and deliver on their words. grrr.gif

 
mcart117
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 12:31 PM
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In Reply To: disco stu's post @ Apr 18 2013, 12:07 PM

Interesting stuff on the solar panels. I've long thought Australian roofs should be a sea of solar panels, and we certainly see a few puddles nowadays. And Hotfire I'm glad I was wrong about the debt:

QUOTE
 Senior debt facility from EIG Global Energy Partners to provide up to US$350 million, increased from previously announced US$300 million
 Access to funding under this Facility maintains forecast construction schedule and first production in 2015
 Existing Borrowdale Park facility to be restructured into subordinated note
 Coalspur retains all off-take and marketing rights, allowing it to preserve strategic flexibility and to maximise value for Coalspur shareholders in the future
 100% ownership of Vista asset retained


 
disco stu
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 12:07 PM
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In Reply To: disco stu's post @ Apr 18 2013, 11:27 AM

An interesting blog on the topic:

http://refreshingnews99.blogspot.in/2013/0...-utilities.html

 
disco stu
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 11:27 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 18 2013, 10:40 AM

Will have to have a read Nipper, but a lot has happened in the Solar industry since 2011 and 2013, the two to three years since the book was researched and published. Solar was still much less economic even 2 years ago than compared to today - just look towards the destruction in the price of these solar co's as the price of the silicon wafers has collapsed in the interval.

Don't doubt that gas is playing an important part, but the twin assault against coal by renewables and gas is very real. There will still be a need for base load capacity, but if the solar takes off and I mean really takes off in a commercial sense as opposed to just the retail space were it is currently already making a significant impact, it is entirely possible that baseload capacity will shift mainly to gas, with coal mainly as an afterthought used predominantely in those countries who are either economically backward and can't afford to upgrade to cleaner plants, or are still growing so quickly that they can't afford to decommission their old plants.

Regardless of who comes out on top, be it renewables or gas, the impact on the demand for coal cannot be understated. Check out what the Eddison Institute have to say on it in the link below.


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Hotfire
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 10:57 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 18 2013, 10:40 AM

US power stations switched to gas when it was $2.00 /MMBtu that was 12 months ago, now gas is a touch over $4.00 /MMBtu

Estimated gas price at which switch back to coal occurs;

$3.25 Powder River Basin (supplies 37% of US)
$3.75 Illinois Basin (11% of US)
$4.50 Appalachian (38% of US)

Information as per SMR presentation dated 4th April 2013 slide 25.


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nipper
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 10:40 AM
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In Reply To: disco stu's post @ Apr 18 2013, 10:06 AM

QUOTE
Believe it or not, the biggest threat isn't gas, it is actually renewable energy, although combined together they pose an extreme threat to our second largest export industry

Not so fast there, young Stu

and alternatively reasoned article suggests it may be increased gas production - esp in the US
QUOTE
...carbon dioxide emissions cannot be reduced without cutting coal use, and shale gas is already displacing coal in the US. This is not speculation; it is happening. Even if some cleaner source becomes viable later, we would still need natural gas as a bridge to get us from here to there. If the world continues to build coal-fired power plants at the present rate, those plants will still be around in 2050, regardless of what other technologies become viable in the meantime. Solar power cannot stop those coal-fired plants from being built. Natural gas can. ...

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/fracking-it...l#ixzz2QlpInBLx

I have just finished reading The Quest: Energy, Security and the remaking of the Modern World by Daniel Yergin. 2011

Highly recommended for a superb overview of the COMPLETE range of energy options, in historical context, now and in the future



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"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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disco stu
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 10:06 AM
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In Reply To: Hotfire's post @ Apr 18 2013, 04:17 AM

Guy's,

while I have been a long time fan of coal and CPL in particular, what is happening with CPL is re-occuring right across the industry.

Believe it or not, the biggest threat isn't gas, it is actually renewable energy, although combined together they pose an extreme threat to our second largest export industry.

Basically the gist is this, with the crash in solar prices it is now economical for people to buy solar panels and install them on their roofs. This is having the flow on effect of reducing peak electricity demand, which also happens to coincide with when the Utilities make the most of their profit. Nowday's peak energy demand is occuring on the hottest days and is being driven by airconditioner demand. The impact of this is that in order to maintain profits, and making it harder for them to maintain all their infrastructure for their baseload capacity. Utilities are then being forced to increase their prices outside of those peaks, which in turn is encouraging more users to install solar pannels, micro turbines and the like, which further reduces utilties profits - basically the industry is now caught in a negative feedback loop that they cannot escape. Effectively this has broken a business model that has been in place for over 100years.

So far the main uptakers of solar has been at a retail level, now while this may seem insignificant with one imagining only a few pannels dotted across the occassional roof, the truth is it is been incrementally enormous. The things is, so far this trend has been confined to the retail level - there has been no significant uptake at the commercial level. Just think of the number of factory roofs that could be covered with these pannels. This posses a huge threat not only to companies like CPL, but also to countries like Australia. Taken together with the increased availability of cleaner energy in the form of gas from fracking, we are really fracked.

This is not the thoughts of some dolphin kissing green group or professor crackpot from up in the hills, this is the assessment coming through from the industry itself:

http://www.eei.org/ourissues/finance/Docum...echallenges.pdf

The utilities are aware of it, the CEO of Duke energy came out and basically said "Renewable energys has f*cked our industry" at a recent US energy conference, and consequently they've just formed the Duke energy renewable division. The large resource Co's are aware of it (heard the one about RIO looking at selling down its interest in Allied Coal?)

CPL while having a great resource and huge potential under the old paradigm, is going to come out a loser as is Australia. Food for thought.


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Hotfire
post Posted: Apr 18 2013, 04:17 AM
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In Reply To: mcart117's post @ Apr 17 2013, 11:54 AM

As per the suspension notice, i can't see the negativity that supports cap raising may have failed call. Though in this market anything is possible.

"pending completion of negotiations" imo sounds like a deal has been reached (on what terms is yet to be seen)

"finance solution" imo does not sound negative.

Also the SP on TSX atm is showing CAD$0.61 or AUD$0.575. Not on huge volume though, but at least they haven't been selling it off during the past two days, Especially with DJIA down 140pts as I type.

CPL last close $0.465. happy to see a 10 cent gain on resumption. biggrin.gif

 
mcart117
post Posted: Apr 17 2013, 11:54 AM
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In Reply To: Duster's post @ Feb 27 2013, 08:18 PM

My guess is that in the current market their attempts at a capital raising have failed, and it's bye bye whatever I put in. angry.gif

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130417/pdf/42f9dm6xx7r6qf.pdf

 
mistagear
post Posted: Mar 18 2013, 03:48 PM
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In Reply To: Duster's post @ Mar 18 2013, 01:57 PM

Hi Duster,

CPL, like a lot of others, is continuing down and who can guess where it stops. The bounce last week was probably due to price falling away too quickly. It creates a wide spread where the sellers go into shock and think, I'm losing so much I cant sell now. Then that wide gap in the spread can attract a few buyers to step up...price bounces but there is only the few buyers and if no new demand arrives, price starts to slide again.
Some existing holders that were in shock, suddenly think, I'm not going to miss selling this time, so they add their holdings to the recent buyers of the bounce who are now being stopped..and down again.
Thats what the chart looks like to me, I have not been following the actual price action.
I can only say, there is no way I will be standing an order in the bid, any time soon.

As for YAL, looks like a wide spread and nobody has a clue where it wants to go. Needs an "Operator" to come in and take charge of the chart, no evidence of one there so far.

I bought WHC on Fri and stopped today... It at least has some rising volume and very little decline..that usually precedes a bounce. I took a 1c trim and will wait now to see where the market goes overseas before I commit to holding any stocks.




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