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datum
Posted on: Jul 24 2010, 07:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i have posted this comment a few years ago about ADA, but it still rings true,......................

all ADA has to do for their end of financial year market ann. is change the date on the letter head.
for the past 10 years they have said exactly the same thing, delayed contracts, etc.

The thing with ADA is their market is too small, although they are good at what they do,
there are not enough customers in the specialised field in which they operate
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 10 2010, 05:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://www.theage.com.au/business/bill-exp...00309-pvvn.html
Bill Express arrest bid over missing $250m
MARK HAWTHORNE
March 10, 2010 THE liquidator of Bill Express will seek an arrest warrant for former director Julian Little if he refuses to leave Dubai to appear at a public hearing into the $250 million collapse of the listed payments company.

The Supreme Court in Melbourne yesterday heard that Mr Little ''is showing some reluctance to return to Melbourne'' to provide sworn testimony about the demise of the company, which boasted Lindsay Fox and Gerry Harvey, two of Australia's most prominent businessmen, as major investors.

Peter Bick, QC, representing liquidator PPB, told the court that ''it may be that we need to seek an arrest warrant to have [Mr Little] return''.

Bill Express operated a network of electronic terminals that provided bill payment services and sold mobile phone credit. When it collapsed in 2008, it owed Optus an estimated $63 million, ANZ $53 million, Vodafone $31.5 million and Telstra $15.5 million.

A public examination of its directors and staff began in Melbourne yesterday, as the liquidator tried to discover where an estimated $250 million went.

The court heard the company engaged in ''fraudulent'' accounting and an elaborate ''money-go-round'' into which tens of millions of dollars had disappeared.

That ''money-go-round'' included the transfer of funds into Bill Express just before the end of a financial year, followed by the reversal of those transactions two days later, to inflate the company's reported balance sheet and profit and loss statement.

The court was told this occurred twice and each time between $20 million and $30 million was credited to Bill Express before the transactions were reversed.

PPB is also trying to locate $12.5 million transferred out of Bill Express to its sister company, TBS Group, in the six months before it collapsed. While these transactions appear in the books of Bill Express, no corresponding transactions appear in the books or bank accounts of TBS.



The liquidator is also chasing tens of millions of dollars of ''loans'' that were issued to companies in Singapore and Dubai, where Mr Little now has business interests.

TBS Group was controlled by Sandro DiDonato, a business associate of Bill Express founders Ian and Hal Christiansen, who shared office space and accounts staff and even a bank account with the listed company.

The first to be called to provide sworn testimony was former accountant Ajit Nadarajah, who was in charge of bank reconciliations for Bill Express and related parties from 2005 until 2008. He is now a credit controller with Visy Industries.

Mr Nadarajah confirmed that, until July 2007, Bill Express did not operate its own bank account, and the transactions of the listed company went through an account controlled by the TBS Group, also in liquidation.

The court heard that Mr DiDonato had access to that account and to funds owned by Bill Express, and that Bill Express chief executive Ian Christiansen and his wife Tania Bianchin, an accounts executive within the Bill Express empire, were two signatories to that private TBS account.

Asked if the transfer and reversal of up to $30 million into Bill Express before its record date was an example of ''fraudulent accounting'', Mr Nadarajah replied: ''Privileged. In hindsight, I believe so.'' Asked if an accountant of 40 years' experience should have known it was fraudulent, Mr Nadarajah replied: ''Privileged. I believe so.''

Asked if the board and chief financial officer of Bill Express knew about the reversed transactions, he replied: ''Privileged. I believe so. I believe the CFO would have to know.''

The Supreme Court hearing continues this morning.

<H4 style="MARGIN: 5px; FONT-SIZE: 12px">Ads by Google</H4>
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 22 2010, 10:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Saudi Aramco downsizes again.

  • From: The Wall Street Journal
  • In association with Bloomberg
  • April 13, 2025 11:58AM
A spokesperson for the Saudi Oil Ministry announced today the planned decommissioning of another 134 oil producing wells. Saudi Aramco has now only 287 active oil wells. This is down from a peak of 1548 oil wells achieved in 2011. The decline in demand for oil has followed it own "peak oil" bell curve. From 1548 active wells in 2011, to 972 producing wells in 2018, & then a continued rapid decline until the present day.

The replacement of the power source in the mass produced passenger vehicle market was expected, but the pace of that change took everyone by surprise. A Toyota spokesman commented it is rather ironic that this announcement coincided with the 30th anniversary of the first mass produced electrically assisted vehicle, that being the Toyota Prius released in 1995.

Recently retired Toyota head of Engineering, Hiroko Mizuno, commented that, around 20 years ago, in 2005, the future of the automobile was transferred from the mechanical engineering department to the science lab. This resulted in the rapid evolution of the electrically powered automobile. Similar to the evolution of the computer.

The only reason for the existence of the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Hiroko said, is because of the existence of oil. The (ICE) is most inefficient invention mankind has ever produced.

The (ICE) absorbs up to 40% of its own energy it produces just for it to operate. It was invented 150 years ago, & our grand children in the future when visiting a museum will marvel at its stupidity & complexity.

From 2014 onwards, when lithium Ion/ electrically powered vehicles became common place the (ICE) was doomed. The consumer demand was phenomenal. Toyota & other major manufacturers immediately dropped the (ICE) from 80% of its vehicle lineup. A typical compact size electric vehicle costs $18,000. It costs 3 cents a kilometre to run, has only one moving part & therefore no maintenance costs. This saves the typical owner $3000 per year, their-by the purchaser has a "free" car after 6 years ownership.

Oil, once was the most traded commodity in the world. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) where oil was traded by a frenzied mob of speculators quickly collapsed. Oil is now quietly traded on monthly set contracts between the supplier & the end customer. Apart from heavy trucks over 30 tonnes & the airline industry there is very little other uses. From a peak of 87.5 million bbls a day in 2011, current production is now at 17.8 million bbls a day. A production figure similar to 1952.The evolution of mankind will no doubt throw up other surprises. The (ICE), an ugly complex lump of tortured metal has finally been sent to its grave.

Long may it stay there.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Dec 2 2009, 06:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Company Announcements Office
Australian Stock Exchange Ltd
Perth

30th November 2009
Change of Name and Head Office/Registered Address. 1. Change of Name.

At the Annual General Meeting of the Company held in Perth on 26thNovember it was resolved to change the Company name from Chrome Corporation Ltd to Pacific Niugini Ltd.

This name change has now been registered by ASIC and ASX will be making the change
effective on Wednesday 2ndDecember 2009.
The new company ASX code will be PNR. 2. Head Office and Registered Address Change.

With effect from 2ndDecember 2009 the head office and registered address of the company has been changed from:

150 Hay Street Subiaco, WA 6008

To:

14/46 Douglas Street, Milton, Qld 4064.

New phone number, fax number and postal address as set out below.
D J Lovell
Company Secretary
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 26 2009, 07:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

its sad m.j. has passed on, but this statement from this article made me laugh

http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/busin...90626-czfi.html

"The concert promoters can't sue the estate," said Bob Rasmussen, dean of the Gould Law School at the University of Southern California. "Once he dies, he doesn't have any obligation to perform."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: May 1 2009, 07:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

qtrly showing even after full 2nd payment the NTA is 14.7 cents, so thats a bit less than the original 28 cents
there certainly will be no capital return now
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Apr 29 2009, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

yes, he has done a sterling job for himself, stretching payment out over 2 years

its what i would do if i could get away with it, because 2 years free salary doing nothing
is pretty easy living
my $2000 investment @ 13cents is looking pretty bad, i wont be retiring on this one
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 12 2009, 10:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

thanx for the info, arty, kennowaylass ,i wiil look them up
datum
  Forum: Macro Factors

datum
Posted on: Mar 6 2009, 03:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

can anyone recommend a website to get the asx 200 live feed/chart,
i am certain i going to have to pay a subscription to a data provider/website, because the ASX charges
for data, so the cheapest one anybody knows of , thanx
  Forum: Macro Factors

datum
Posted on: Feb 28 2009, 04:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Jan 15 2009, 08:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (db76 @ Wednesday 14/01/09 02:15pm)

db76, i am still in agreement of your conclusions on this thread,
about the banks becoming "service industry" stocks

telstra (TLS) had a float price of $3.30 in nov 1997, 11 years later it
has managed a 31cent gain. today's closing price $3.61
admittedly you have had good dividends over the years, but so have the banks.

i expect over the next 10 years the banks might display similar share price gains
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Nov 15 2008, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the large retailers in the states are making some
very pessimistic statements at the moment, about
trading conditions they have never seen before.

Although this an extremely pessimistic view on my part,
have a walk around a centro or westfield mall & take a guess
of how many shops you could do without.
i estimate at least 1/3rd of the shops , in a serious downturn would
not be there.
high end clothes retailers, fashion shops, toys, beauty, food outlets,
sports stores,etc.

consumers might end up only buying what they need, rather than what they want.

This will effect everything , of course , not just centro.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 9 2008, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Maybe a thought from Cicero in 55 B.C. may help;

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Oct 20 2008, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i sold out of CFU @32 cents a few weeks ago
after an 80cent purchase price.
selling out at a loss is a hard thing to do.
CFU is now a $60 million company.
over the past 20 years i would guess $400 million has
been poured into this company.

i am still expecting CFU to be a success, but it could be two
years away, i was also expecting 2 more large commercial
orders (in addition to the nuon order) , these have yet to eventuate.

From a buyers perspective(the european utilites) they can take all the
time in the world to make their decision.
They know CFU can increase their output quite substainally
at the (soon to be completed)german manufacturing plant ,
so their is no need for them to rush into things.
I will buy back into CFU , hopefully without paying 80cents per share again
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 18 2008, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

my regular email flyers appeared in my inbox.

Fat prophets have a two year offer for the price of one.

"The Intelligent Investor" has there regular free sample newsletters.
They have had a buy on HVN harvey norman @ $3.00 from a mth ago.
HVN now around $2.50.

needless to say you cant eat a new plasma TV or new computer if you get a bit hungry,
i think these newsletters are in serious denial,thinking that things are going to return to
normal next week or next month.
I dont believe this will be the case.

All these tip sheets wiil have disappeared come next year
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Oct 18 2008, 12:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

$13 mill writedown on investments, s.p. down 40% overnite on londons AIM market
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 13 2008, 07:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: boo on Thursday 09/10/08 03:06pm

boo,
that is simply a "good for day" order which is purged
at the end of the day.

there is a "good to cancelled" order which stays in the system
until you cancel it.

most of my orders i do are 'good for day" because i cant monitor the price
all day long.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 3 2008, 07:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i have just signed up for another free intelligent Investor
newsletter, so i dug out there SOT report

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Company: SP Telemedia Limited
ASX Code: SOT
Recommendation: Coverage Ceased
Price at Review: $0.170
Current Price: $0.145
Change since review: -14.71%

Category: SECOND LINE INDUSTRIAL
Issue: 252
Date: 15 Jul 08



We recommended cutting your losses on SP Telemedia on 25 Sep 07 (Sell – $0.45), after it had fallen 31% and 36% respectively from our upgrades on 4 Jul 07 (Long Term Buy – $0.77) and 17 Jan 07 Long Term Buy – $0.82), and we’re glad we did because the stock has since fallen 62%.

The company has tried to merge its way out of trouble by acquiring the unlisted TPG Holdings, one of Australia’s largest internet service providers, and then taking over Chariot, a small internet service provider that was 70%-owned by TPG. Unfortunately these moves have only increased SP Telemedia’s exposure to the highly competitive end of the telecommunications industry.

New management has come with the ownership changes, but it has become an even more difficult business. We haven’t been following the situation very closely since recommending you sell last September, and we’re now officially CEASING COVERAGE.

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Sep 28 2008, 12:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i posted this article here a few years ago,
written by alan greenspan , 41 years ago in 1967

http://www.gold-eagle.com/greenspan041998.html
a few sentences from that article................

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit.

But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets.

Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth.

Gold stands in the way of this insidious process.

It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

  Forum: Macro Factors

datum
Posted on: Sep 24 2008, 08:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i recently enquired about CFD"s thru IG markets,
& just got a sales call from there desk trying to rope me in.

I took the opportunity to ask her if she knew what
happenened to macquarie prime.

To paraphrase.....
she said that they had a complex regulatory structure &
it couldn't cope with the new environment, she now
believes there trading platform/CFD provider status is now dead.


Her views have to been taken with a grain of salt,as they
are a competitor, & so would put the knife in at any chance
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Sep 17 2008, 05:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i really should start my own
investment newsletter with my phenomenal
stock picking abiliities.

NAB purchased at $29.00, it couldnt possibly go lower than $25.00,i thought,
of course not
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Sep 13 2008, 10:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

heres a recent news headline from The New York Times to calm everyone down.......................

Stocks collapse in 16,410,030 share day,
but rally at close cheers brokers,
bankers optimistic, continue aid

(& in the smaller print you can see)..........
Bankers believe liquidation has run its course,
and advise purchases
.
.
.
.
.
.
..

apologies for my terrible sense of humor
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Sep 11 2008, 10:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

The Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund has been described as
one of the premier global money managers.

No matter how big they you are, or how smart you are, everyone seems to
make the same mistakes

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted: September 09, 2008, 8:31 AM by Jonathan Ratner
Financial services
As Freddie Mac shares plunged more than 80% on Monday, Bill Miller’s Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund and its affiliates emerged as one of the most damaged. They owned nearly 80 million, or 12.4%, of Freddie shares as of the end of July after boosting those holdings in August from just 50 million, according to Dennis Gartman.

“Mr. Miller was averaging down, and he was averaging a losing position,” he said in Tuesday’s edition of The Gartman Letter. “This is contrary to our first and primal rule of trading: Never, ever, ever add to a losing trade.”

While Mr. Gartman said this “carcinogen” often takes people out of the game forever, he does not think contrarian investor Mr. Miller’s fund will be taken out. Nonetheless, it has been damaged along with his reputation.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Sep 4 2008, 09:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

this is one sad state of affairs.

let me begin............................

i signed up for a one hour CFD introduction today & attended
their office in melbourne at 530 collins st.

It was two weeks ago that i registered online for this event.

During that two week period i had 5 phone calls & 2 sms messages from CMC.
I did not answer any of the 5 calls because i had their phone number
listed in my mobile so i could avoid talking to them.

CMC seem to be getting really desperate to attract new sheep to the slaughter.
The presentation was what i already know , but just wanted to see if they had anything
interesting to say. Which they didn't.

Their was about 15 of us sad sheep in attendance.

question time at the end of the session................

i know nothing about the stockmarket, do you tell us what stocks to buy............

I still dont get this long or short thing................................

They put up a slide comparing cfds to buying stocks in the normal manner.

If i want to buy $10,000 worth of BHP shares thru my broker,
how much do i need to put up??? , the presenter asked the assembled sheep............

Is it $5000...........???? suggested one of the sheep.

i was expecting John Cleese to burst thru the door at any minute,
it would have made an excellent Fawlty Towers sketch.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Sep 1 2008, 11:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: frmthefuture on Sunday 31/08/08 07:04pm


I agree with posters that all views are welcome.

frm,
your possible 30% fall has no real basis except for your charting.
Over the past 3 weeks you did about 5 posts on the NAB thread
stating that its heading straight to $30.
I have never been a chartist , for obvious reasons.

but if the financials do fall another 30% , it would mean something catastrophic
has happened in the markets, & as such, it wont matter what stocks you are in
because the asx200 will be 3000 points
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Aug 26 2008, 10:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

this isnt an really a stockmarket quote, but its wonderfully entertaining,
its from newspaper article from todays Australian
about the AUD currency decline......................


Commonwealth Bank currency strategist Joseph Capurso said a stronger US dollar was the major factor behind today's fall.


This guy is an absolute genius, he did an MBA degree to come up with that conclusion
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Aug 26 2008, 09:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

well, the $20 mill npat for 07/08 is out the window.
that forecast was from the 8th feb 2008 merger presentation .

They have not deliberately tryed to mis-lead shareholders, they
were just far too optimistic.

The full year results looks like they will be using every accounting phrase thats
ever been invented.
........... one offs, intangibles, depreciation, amortisation, merger &
acquisition costs, etc.

On a brighter note their ebitda for the qtr ended 31 july 2008 is $22 million.
So, in the 4 mths since the merger they seem to be maintaining
ebitda of around $7/8 million per month. Which implys they should come
close to their forecast $100 million ebitda.

hopefully, after these writeoffs are taken care of, you should see a brand new
company emerge from the other side .
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 22 2008, 09:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: Buoya on Wednesday 23/07/08 03:32pm

Buoya, just re-reading the SOT thread & saw your comment.

i must point out that asking for my opinion is like putting your
head between the jaws of a great white shark & hoping things go Ok for you.

This is a post i put on a general thread a few weeks ago..........

my regular free email flyer from The Intelligent Investor
has appeared & there opening paragraph doesn't look to pretty.............
(2 years of bad stock picks)
From a research perspective, the past 12 months have been the most difficult in The Intelligent Investor’s 10-year history. The Growth Portfolio fell 37% in the year to 30 June, the Income Portfolio fell 26%, and the last Buy recommendation to show a positive return was ARB Corporation in August 2006. There have been 15 since, of which three – Timbercorp, RHG and Platinum Asset Management – have more than halved.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

as you can see, this is a bad market. In regards to SOT, the numbers look very
attractive, earnings wise.
What you cant measure is market sentiment, & this is what has driven SOT down to 16cents.
The late Rene Rivkin used to have a set or rules,
His main rule was that he examined the downside risk first.
Then he asks himself "how low can it go if im wrong".
The answer for SOT is probably 10cents. So you have to make a personal decision on the risk/reward ratio.

I have not bought SOT, & will probably not buy it for at least another 6 mths.
I dont think the full year results are going to move this stock.
Next years projections of $40+ mill npat will make an impact, but thats 12 mths away
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 21 2008, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i recently re-bought NAB several months ago for $29.05

I had a look at my old records when i previously owned NAB.

The dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) for my holding
on the 9th September 1997, was allocated at $19.26 per share

For the (DRP) on the 30th sep 1998, it was $23.90 per share.

Hope this cheers everyone up.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 19 2008, 10:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (frmthefuture @ Tuesday 19/08/08 04:29pm)

i dont have your confidence frmthefuture,
But whether your optimistic & i am pessimistic wont
change the outcome. We could try a bit of ramping , but
i dont think its going to move a $40 billion lump such as NAB

All the banks down around 3% or more today , this relentless selling
is looking like a long term thing.

Also, thanks to all posters with your contributions on options .
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 18 2008, 04:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

just a general comment about qantas, rather than a financial comment.

first of all, i dont believe QAN maintenance staff would deliberately shortcut
or do a substandard job on purpose.
As we know QAN over the last 3 , 4 or 5 years have been finding any way
they can to slash costs.
All these plane faults ocurring now is probably the result of these 5 years of
cost cutting.
It is now manifesting itself in the form of very bad service & neglected
aeroplanes. Their planes are regularly late, & last nite at melb airport my plane was
an hour late, after landing it took 20 minutes to taxi to the terminal & 25 minutes
to get my bags.

QAN will need to fix this debacle, but since the seeds were sown 3+ years ago,
it might take 3+ years to reverse it.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 18 2008, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: Petert20 on Sunday 17/08/08 11:27am

QUOTE
right $26.50 august calls for 37cents


peter, i dont know if I'm misunderstanding this,

your $26.50 call options expiring 28/08/08
with your 37 cent premium, means you need a
price of $26.87 on expiry to breakeven & anything above that is profit.
i am correct about this?? , unless you bought put options
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 14 2008, 11:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

CEU traffic report

i did a trip on eastlink on wednesday.
I got on at the dandenong bypass (near the southern end) at 5.05pm.
(i was heading north)

basically traffic was light , both directions, i was heading north bound &
travelled all the way thru to the tunnel to join the eastern freeway.

traffic was partically light south bound, heading towards frankston,
when i was in the southern part of the tollway.

Once i was past the monash freeway interchange south bound traffic increased to
light/moderate.
there seemed to be sporadic waves of traffic. Which is caused by motorists
using only two or three sections of the tollway & then getting off.

CEU reported the average trip length is 12km. The tollway is 39 km long.

The tunnel had moderate traffic in both directions.

Being my journey was at peak hour , i was expecting heavier traffic.
I think they will need to discount the toll charges at the southern end of
the tollway to encourage motorists to use the full tollway to frankston.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 14 2008, 03:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: WestWolf on Thursday 14/08/08 01:22am

westwolf,codfish,
in most cases (such as CFE) they do keep all the money & waste it on other things.

CCI, turning there $8 mill mine into $40 mill is pure good luck, rather than management ability.

Because they have already stated they are considering "an up to 15 cent capital return"
i would expect something decent coming back to shareholders.
Its the only reason i bought CCI , as a punt.

If CCI management were serious about mining they would have got the
chrome mine into production, but they have not, because they dont
have the ability or expertise, & they know it as well.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 13 2008, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760


my regular free email flyer from The Intelligent Investor
has appeared & there opening paragraph doesn't look to pretty.............
(2 years of bad stock picks)


From a research perspective, the past 12 months have been the most difficult in The Intelligent Investor’s 10-year history. The Growth Portfolio fell 37% in the year to 30 June, the Income Portfolio fell 26%, and the last Buy recommendation to show a positive return was ARB Corporation in August 2006. There have been 15 since, of which three – Timbercorp, RHG and Platinum Asset Management – have more than halved.




  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Aug 12 2008, 11:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

vida,
shareholders will get zero.
BXP has debts of between $250 mill to $300 mill.

The only thing 7/11 must be interested in is the dialtime/billpay software
& the server farms that go with it.
That way 7/11 would own their own software IP, so they would not have to
pay franchise fees to use someone"s system, such as epay or ezipass.

i have no idea what it is worth, but whether its $1 mill or $30 million
for the system it will still be well short of the $300 million outstanding debt
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 12 2008, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

after my previous posts on this board about
how much of a dog stock CCI is, i have taken a very small
holding in CCI @ 13 cents.

As previously mentioned , a lot of stocks trade below their nta or cash backing.
CFE is a very recent example of this, having sold their iron ore tenements
for $400 million. The CFE share price has not moved because management are going to seek other opportunities with the money



the promise of an "up to 15 cent capital return" is highly possible,
but i expect it to be a little bit less than that

"up to" could mean a one cent capital return, but i
would expect a return of around the 8 to 10 cent mark.

CCI will keep the rest of the money , to keep themselves in a job for the next 2 or 3 years, & the lease payments on BMW convertibles dont come cheap either.

So after they recieve the money we might see a bit of bounce, or
we might have to wait until the captial return is finalised, which hopefully
give the s.p. a bit of a lift
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 7 2008, 06:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (Omnibust @ Thursday 07/08/08 05:12pm)

your report of springvale rd might be bad news for CEU.
it would seem with eastlink taking those 130,000 cars off the
other major roads is more than enough to make a big impact on the old routes.
therefore, their is no need for other road users to migrate to eastlink
if they are getting a great run on other roads.

Channel 9 news (Melbourne) had CEU as its lead story about traffic numbers
being down 50% & also highlighting the s.p. drop
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 7 2008, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

market reaction to the first week of tolling was a bit savage.
Although it recovered quite well considering it was down to 76cents or
almost a 25% drop initially
Might be a typical knee jerk reaction of the state of the market ,
I.E. sell now & ask questions later.

I might have a look back in the archives of CEU to see what their
expected projections were.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 1 2008, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

alonso,
looks like your holding this thread all by yourself.
$27 mill mkt cap with almost $10 mill cash in the bank
gives it a very low enterprise value , & $4mill npat is
not a bad effort
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Aug 1 2008, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

qtrly is out.

If i was deaf, blind & stupid ,i would probably enjoy owning ONC scrip.
Its blatantly obvious that minor shareholders are just a
annoyance to ONC management.

They give out the absolute bare minimum in information.
The card numbers on issue are skyrocketing, 17 million now on issue.

If you have a look at their feb 2007 investor presentation, you
will see that they had 5 million cards issued & were forecasting 10 million cards by 2010.
They have exceeded that number quite comfortably.

Oh, well, back to being a mushroom , i guess.
At least in the annual report they HAVE to give us some information.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 31 2008, 12:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i am not a subscriber to The Intelligent Investor newsletter,
but do receive their free email flyer/advertisement.

RHG is one stock they have continually recommended from 70cents & downwards.
This is from their latest edition..............

Cash rolls in at RHG
We’ve made some mistakes with this stock in the past 12 months,
but recommending it at 30 cents wasn’t one of them.




The above is just the headline introduction to the article, i dont
have access to the rest because i am not a subscriber,
but it implies they believe RHG is worth at least 30cents
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 30 2008, 09:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: db76 on Wednesday 30/07/08 06:52pm

db76,
you have done some similar good posts on this thread over the
last 6 mths.
After reading your posts I decided to behave like an ostrich
& stick my head in the sand & ignore your posts.

But, it has now sunk into my thick head you are 100% right.

The banks are going to become Telstra type stocks.
(TLS) IPO price was $3.35, 10 years ago & now its all of $4.50.

the banks will always be around, but will now become
service industry type companies, as you stated.
Anyone under the age of 40 will probably expect the stellar
run over the past 15 years to continue for the next 15 years.
Unfortunately i now dont expect this to happen.

The proof is in the price, NAB s.p. down to 8 year lows.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jul 30 2008, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: andy20020 on Tuesday 29/07/08 11:10pm

i already have Pan pacific (PPP) shares.
I bought them on the 19th june 2007 @ 26.5cents

the only way i think we will profit from PPP is a large capitial
return , such as 15 cents or more.

PPP is almost like RHG limited (the former rams home loans)

In the fact that RHG are running off their loan book, PPP are running
down their oil reserves.
i think PPP should pay large dividends then liquidate the
company when the oil runs out
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jul 29 2008, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

this is a telling indication of our market,
their has been no posts on this once very popular
thread for over a year.

one year & 4 days to be exact
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jul 28 2008, 10:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: jadedjoy on Friday 25/07/08 06:23pm

jaded, all those questions you asked wont be answered until CFU succeeds or fails.
.........simple as that.

To clarify one thing the 1kw unit in the test station is an improved fuel
stack that is more efficient than the current design. CFU have had units in the field
for around 3 years or more.

As i said in an earlier post , CFU is still a punt. I am employed in the mech. engineering field, but this also doesnt mean much.
If you asked a Nasa scientist or professor Stephen Hawking if they thought CFU was
going to be a success , they wouldn't no the answer either.

This CFU product has been over 20 years in the making.
Thats how long its taken to get this thing to market, & you could be waiting
another 5 years to find out how the story ends
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 28 2008, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

burning thru $1 million per qtr,
with $1.18 million left in their account as of june 30th,
so 8 to 10 weeks worth of money left.
need a cap raising quite urgently, unless they are selling a
lot of product all of a sudden.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 25 2008, 05:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

CFU has dropped back to 37cents after its
one day 30% spike a few days ago.
As yet, there are no forthcoming statements of anyone selling out
at the intra day high of 47cents by investors who
picks exact bottoms/tops.

On to more realistic things, that EU subsidy will result
in CFU practically giving away their units.
Interesting to see what orders they will generate in th next 12 months
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 22 2008, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: arty on Tuesday 22/07/08 11:57am

arty,
you might be suffering from a nasty condition i describe as "hotcopperitis"
this causes all punters to claim they buy at record lows & sell at
record highs.

i bought CFU @ 80cents
this is your first post on CFU, so i get amused after the fact its gone up 30%
Had you have stated yesterday u bought at 36cents then it might be a bit more plausable
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 21 2008, 02:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

at the end of the day ,CFU still needs to be regarded as a punt.
The CEO of Metal Storm (MST) recently posed a very interesting
question to his shareholders. He said "are we going to be a slow failure.???"

This question equally applys to CFU. The cfcl product is
a revolutionary change in the marketplace. The $$10SSS of millions CFU is spending
on plant & production is the only thing they can do.

100 years ago Henry Ford built the worlds first mass produced automobile
without knowing if he had a market or customer to sell it to.


no matter how much research or knowledge you have of CFU, its
success or failure cannot be determined.

In 2 , 3 or 5 years time we will know the answer to that question.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 18 2008, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

does anyone have a intelligentinvestor.com.au subscription,
they have covered it in their recent newsletter,
this is the headline, as below, but you needw to be a member
to get the full details

Category: SECOND LINE INDUSTRIAL
Issue: 252
Date: 15 Jul 08

We recommended cutting your losses on SP Telemedia on 25 Sep 07 (Sell – $0.45), after it had fallen 31% and 36% respectively from our upgrades on 4 Jul 07 (Long Term Buy – $0.77) and 17 Jan 07 Long Term Buy – $0.82), and we’re............. ..........
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 16 2008, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

in my post on this thread 15 months ago, on...Thursday 08/03/07 10:21pm ,
i heaped scorn & sarcasm on KSX.

After that post KSX promptly rose from 2cents to 22cents.
Now its looking like returning to its status as a flea bitten micro cap.

At least a few punters would have made a killing on this horse, as long as you cash in
after the race is over.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 15 2008, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

considering how the markets going,
the best thing CCI can do is , after they get paid,
is to wind up/delist the company & return the cash to shareholders.

All 22cents worth.

Unfortunately, like most management teams of small spec stocks,
this is unlikely to happen.

The peanuts who have been running this debacle will try & keep themselves in a
job for as long as possible. I.E. until the money runs out.
And maybe pay themselves a few cash bonuses for the outstanding
job they have done
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 11 2008, 10:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

SOT is been sitting on my "tech" category watchlist for 15 mths.
I thought it was bargain 12 months ago when the s.p. was 60cents.

Bear markets take no prisoners , i guess.
Looking at some quick back of the envelope figures.

$125 mill mkt cap. With recent ASX ann. of april & may ebitda
of $7 mill & $8 mill respectively.

This puts it on track for $100 million ebitda for the next fin year.
they are forcasting $20 mill NPAT 2007/08 full yr & forcasting $48 mill 08/09 full yr.

$48 mill npat seems a bit high to me. On $100 mill ebitda, i generally use a
rough rule that 1/3rd becomes NPAT. Which implies $33 mill npat.

$40 mill npat 08/09 npat would be a good figure to work on.
SOT has $27 mill cash & borrowed $150 million to buy TPG.
EV value then is $125 mill - $27 mill cash + $150 mill = $248 mill EV.

The $150 million debt could be paid down quite quickly, in 3 years or less
with retained earnings. And maybe SOT is already doing this.

SOT looks like a no brainer at this price , but could easily drift down to 10cents in this market.
I might buy a few before the full yr results come out , because SOT is certainly not going backwards; earnings wise.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 10 2008, 12:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

this is a very interesting post i copied from somewhere else.
the poster did not reference any article or website it was from,
so it my be his/her own musings.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I have been following this saga for three years. I had anticipated big problems a couple of years ago, but they didn't manifest as optimism does tend to defy logic for some time.

When I first realized the size of the Derivatives market, I thought, wow, that is multiples of the worlds GDP - if this whole mess falls over, we are screwed. Now how can I make money shorting the market....

The problem with this strategy is that Central Banks can play a lot of tricks to keep the game going on...

The thing I have come to realize is that the Collapse of the Derivatives market is unlikely to ever happen. My rationale and potential outcome for this is as follows.

The FED and the central banks will not allow a collapse of the derivatives market. If derivatives were to seize up, no bank or entity would have any confidence to put their money anywhere. No body would know who was going to pay up on the large, calculated bets various entities were taking and hence the financial system of the world would literally seize up.

The Central banks can't allow for this to happen, hence they are more likely to bail out more Bear Sterns and Northern Rock catastrophes when they happen in my opinion.

Currently, the Fed is getting dangerously low on tangible cash and Treasuries on their own balance sheet. If there is another blow up, I am of the opinion that they will be forced to print money. I think a few people are already sensing this. (Note, unlike you might hear, the Fed is not printing money yet. They are loaning money out - vast quantities of it and for shady collateral - but all monies loaned are expected to be paid back).

So what does this mean? Well, if they print in earnest, then you would tend towards expecting massive hyperinflation in the US. Normally countries that attempt to get out of their current debt and poor financial situation that go to the printing press end up with hyperinflation. Germany, Zimbabwe - all the result of the printing press.

However, I don't think this is going to result in hyperinflation like everyone will expect. It is a bold claim, but my rationale is as follows.

Firstly, they will not be printing to hand money out to everyone. It will merely be to make sure that markets function and no huge entities collapse completely. But no-one will know this for sure, hence the act of starting the press for a few bucks will be the same as printing Billion dollar notes straight off the bat as the market is concerned.

As they start to do this (and I am hypothesizing that it is only a matter of time), oil and energy costs around the world are going to shoot to the moon. Speculators will move everything into energy because it is the only thing that will hold its value once the trust of a fiat system is broken. (A lot of people think Gold will be where the money goes - I think gold would do alright - but the supply of energy is the last truly universally exchangeable currency). I think we are already seeing this speculation occur. If it does happen, $150 oil will be considered cheap. Bonds will not get touched (why would you buy a Treasury that is going to yield 4% when you know full well more fiat currency is going to be printed at no cost in the future - you might as well burn your money now). This will spike interest rates. Equities and houses (which are overvalued by the huge credit being thrown around) will be sold by people loosing confidence and the smart money will all go into energy - the last safe haven of a truly shaky house of financial cards.

Thus, my thesis is that the US will be forced to start the printing press, but this will ultimately crush them due to a huge oil shock and spiking bond yields with a country that is far too indebted. This printing will mean that the derivatives market stays in tact (all bets on the market will get resolved), however, the act of starting the printing press will ultimately not result in hyperinflation, but will rather result in a huge wave of deflation as the money printed will not be able to work its way into the general economy before market forces have dealt with the problem.

It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out. I don't know much about economics or finance, this is just my opinion at a high level and I would be interested in others opinion on the topic. Interesting times ahead..
  Forum: Macro Factors

datum
Posted on: Jul 9 2008, 06:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: carneius on Wednesday 09/07/08 10:22am

i am usually quite circumspect when a CEO states we
welcome competition. The more , the merrier , so to speak.

In the case of CFU though, i actually believe him, when he states
its good for us.

CFU don't expect to be the "Microsoft" of the fuel cell industry(I.E. a monopoly)
Their will be a number of manufacturers with their own specific product.

Our CEO is correct, in that the more commercial products in the
market will help the CHP providers gain wide acceptance in the mainstream
market place.

It still could be a long slow process though, played out over the next
5 to 10 years. Unless CFU get some very large orders in the next 2 years,
the s.p. could languish
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 8 2008, 07:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (dee27 @ Tuesday 08/07/08 01:46pm)

just read the ann,
administrator appointed.
I thought an extremely talented businessman might have had
a crack at saving BXP & winning back the favour of newsagents.

Obviously the task looked too daunting.

ONQ must now be worth negative $60 million,
so they will shut up shop as well i imagine
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 3 2008, 10:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

just a little titbit here,

Paul Jury, the former CEO of RSP has popped his head up
as managing Director of Comdek (CDS)

CDS is a tech company that went into receivership 2 years ago
& has decided to became a coal company.
During the tech boom 8 years ago, mining companies were
turning themselves into tech stocks.

Paul Jury made a lot of money out of the RSP takeover, so my instinct tells me
he is purely in it for the money at CDS.
I might run the ruler over CDS to see if its worthwhile though.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 2 2008, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

CCI is yet another penny dreadful whose sole
purpose as a listed company is to torture punters to death.

I have never owned CCI , but kept an eye on it to see if anything happens.

If you browse this CCI thread going back 2 years, you would
have seen some excited posters thinking CCI was about to start printing money
with their chrome mine.

Although the downside risk in CCI should be zero (in the short term), the upside is
extremely limited.

The july 1st 2008 ASX release states that after taxes/fees,etc they expect
21 to 22 cents per share in cash.

On my limited experience , this means nothing.
I bought a Kerry Packer run cash box about 5 or 6 years ago
that had 60 cents per in cash. I bought at 55 cents & it then promptly
dropped to 45cents.

A lot companies trade below their NTA or cash backing

In the case of CCI , the last qrtly report shows an annualized loss of $4 million.

And as dr_dazmo states if they start drilling holes in the ground somewhere else they
will burn thru millionsss in a short space of time.

Having said all that, in this depressed market, CCI in the short term might have a bit
of a bounce to the 20cent mark, so you wouldn't complain about a 20% return.

Also, CCI is trading a record lows, so 95% of punters are under water.
In the old terms CCI is trading at 0.8cents or 8/10 tenths of one cent,
after allowing for the 20 to 1 capital reduction.

the above are the musings of a mug punter d.y.o.r
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 2 2008, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (carneius @ Tuesday 01/07/08 07:18pm)

carneius,
i have changed my mind.
ive been doing a bit of re-reading of CFU info.
Our CEO made a very obvious statement. He said we cant wait another
5 years before we go to market.

This is correct , & if they did CFU would go broke or be overtaken by competitors.

The CFU product is identical to the computer industry.
If IBM & Microsoft waited until they had the perfect product , we
would still be using typewriters & paper & pencil to communicate.

hopefully CFU gets those other large orders they mentioned at the start of
the year, then CFU"s future is assured
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 1 2008, 08:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the punchline at the bottom of my posts is a sarcastic
statement about the stockmarket in general.
Stocks suuch as ERG , chemeq CMQ, Bear Stearns, etc.
are stocks you take to the grave with you.

hopefully CFU is not going to be added to the list.
i hold CFU @ 80cents
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jul 1 2008, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

CFU amuses the hell out of me.
today's announcement about dramatically improved efficiency
& extend lifetime of the cells is a great step forward.

I have an engineering background & to illustrate why this is
funny to me i will give you this scenario.

Holden announce they are going to manufacture a new Holden Commodore
fore release in 2009 (CFU is planning production for 2009, only 6 mths away)

But Holden says we haven't finishing designing the car yet.
It might have 4 cylinders or 6 cylinders, it will have doors &
a roof but we keep making different types, so we dont know if
the doors will be finished before we start selling the car.

CFU better not stuff this up going to mass production too early.
CFU, to me, is well & truly still in R & D stages.
I would prefer they delay production for 2 years, rather than end up making
a Ford Edsel.
(You have to be quite old to remember what a Ford Edsel is)
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 30 2008, 09:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

f.c,
i beg to differ. i also own SMN so i want it to be a success

the orders they have received from the 3 major airlines
(Airbus/boeing/embraer) are purely one off purchases for
testing/R & D.

Boeing approved CVM 15 months ago. But SMN have yet to have any
commercial airline operator knock on their door & order 50 or 100 fitouts
for their fleet of aircraft.

Thats what a real customer is.

To supply/fitout/maintain/upgrade a CVM
installation for years to come.
This has not happened.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 30 2008, 05:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

SMN is no longer a small cap stock.
It has well & truly achieved micro-cap status.
The current s.p of SMN is correct.
The price is where it should be.

After 4 years as a listed company, & many more years before that
developing cvm technology ,SMN does not have one paying customer.
The testing & R & D orders i dont consider to be commercial mainstream orders.

Whether i have bought an "ERG" stock is now a cause for concern.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 26 2008, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://business.theage.com.au/eaglemont-ey...wwz.html?page=1

June 26, 2008
Page 1 of 2
EVEN as executives of embattled Bill Express stay out of sight in their Eaglemont headquarters, it seems regulators and the Australian Federal Police have begun preliminary investigations into the electronic bill payment company and its network of private subsidiaries.

According to staff who work at the Eaglemont headquarters of Bill Express and its holding company On Q, AFP officers have interviewed two senior executives regarding the transfer of funds into bank accounts not controlled by the public entity...................

.....................................................(article continues on webpage)
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 25 2008, 08:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

although i am not a holder of BXP, i am still watching to see
how the soap opera ends.

I also know now why Warren Buffet puts such huge importance
on management when he buys a company.
BXP had a bullet proof franchise & market share,
yet these thieving low-lifes have managed to destroy it.
Its pretty obvious they have used there own privately listed companies to bleed
BXP dry, in addition of course to there dumb numbnut investments in bopo, etc.

No doubt the money is hidden away in there wife"s name or some
off shore bank account. They have simply used BXP as a listed vehicle
to enrich themselves, nothing more, nothing less.

Also, their ASX disclosure was a trading halt up until mon. 23rd june,
& they have not updated the market at all, which would breach listing
rules i would imagine
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 25 2008, 07:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: deadone on Wednesday 25/06/08 04:25pm

rather amusing, deadone

if 15.2% of the company is worth $1.00,
then the entire company must be worth $6.58cents.
Which is probably still overpriced
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 20 2008, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: kura on Friday 20/06/08 12:29pm

kura, this is a re-print of my post from almost 2 years ago, & nothing has changed
with FCL.
The s.p. drop is purely from a lack of interest from investors,
as a result , more sellers than buyers.
Fcl has hovered around the $2.00 mark (+/- 50 cents) for the past 10 years.
and, i would expect its going to stay that way for the next 10 years.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday 25/10/06 03:01pm

Fcl lessons i have learnt,

lesson #1 -- I bought FCL 5 years ago when it dropped from $2.60 to $1.80.(buy price)
I thought i was a genius.
the stock then promptly dropped to a $1.00

lesson #2 -- A good dividend will not support the share price.
The theory being a strong 6%+ divvy will provide a floor under the
share price.
This is not the case. FCL has very unreliable earnings.
Better off sticking to the companies that sell the end product.
I.E. WOW , CML , etc. (although these stocks are at record highs.
So DYOR


  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jun 20 2008, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Extraordinary times we live in
is a very appropriate comment

In the last 3 trading days (excluding today) over $1 billion worth of
NAB shares have been sold.
With a mkt cap of $ 42 billion, it means in 120 trading days (or 4 mths of trading)
the entire 100% of the company could be sold at that rate.

30 years ago the average 100% stock turnover for the typically listed company
was 8 years.

now , in these frenzied times, one of australia"s largest companies could
be bought & sold in 4 months.

Extraordinary indeed
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jun 18 2008, 06:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the market supposedly prices in what it expects to happen
in 12 mths time.
if the market expects a serious drop off in profits (I.E. -30%)
then NAB is theoretically priced on a P.E. of 12

i hold NAB @ $29.05c , & i am patiently waiting for
mr market to do the right thing by me
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jun 3 2008, 06:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i never been much of a conspiracy theorist.

at the moment the USA is screaming manipulation & blaming
traders.

But back around the years 1999/2000/2001 oil hit a low
of $15 bbl & in the decade 1991/2001 it hovered around the $20 to $25 mark.

the thing was, back then , nobody was complaining that oil was too cheap; or market
manipulators should be making consumers pay more for oil

when"s its the other way round the media are all over it
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jun 3 2008, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

human nature is a terrible thing.
As long as my NAB shares stay above my buy price ,
i think i am a genius. As soon as they look like dropping below it ,
i am in full panic mode.

NAB has lost 15% in the last 2 weeks(along with other banks)
Its time the market did the right thing by me & bid up my
NAB shares to $40. I am getting very impatient
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: May 29 2008, 07:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (datum @ Tuesday 23/10/07 11:58am)

always a good learning experience watching pathetic company's like AZD
crash & burn. AZD is now well under its float price of 8.33 cents.
It did manage to reach almost a $400 million mkt cap.
& in an earlier post i said it might reach $1 billion mkt cap if the mug punters went berzerk.

AZD has lasted 2 years as a listed company, the next thing it will achieve
is to call in the receivers
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 29 2008, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

ratfink,
considering the calibre of management & the heavy hitters of the
share register , you would expect a lot more professionalism.

zero information in the qrtly has got me perplexed.
I am not actually worried about the oncard business itself though.

I have never been a conspiracy theorist. For example, any hotcopper
thread you read has posters complaining about market manipulation &
capping of stocks. I have always been of the opinion that it is rubbish.

But small caps such as ONC always quickly drift downwards when no news is available or no concrete information is forthcoming.
In the case of ONC, what we do know is, the business isnt going backwards , its
going forwards.
As with the hotcopper posters, maybe their issome truth to capping stocks so insiders can accumulate as much as they can.

anxiously awaiting the end of fin. year with an annual report to have a look at.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 24 2008, 07:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

4.6 billion bbls would be enough to keep australia going
for 13 years. I believe we consume about 1 million bbls a day.

I remember reading a post by Sharescene"s resident oil expert,
Ian Witchchurch some time ago(on another thread)
He said ultimately you dont no if their is any oil in place until
you drill the hole, regardless of other process"s. I.E. 3d, seismic , etc.

i dont have any facts or figures, but how many end up dusters.
& if their was a good chance of preliminary testing being accurate
then CTP would probably be $200 a share by now.

CTP is worth a punt , even if it has taken them 2 1/2 years since listing to
drill their first hole
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 23 2008, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i live in melbourne. i am about 4 km from the start of the tollroad
at frankston.

for those SS members who live in other states, the tollroad will be popular,
unlike the sydney disasters.

The south east corridor of melbourne is one the fastest growing in australia.
Comprising the suburbs of cranbourne, berwick, narrewarren,etc.
Also a lot large industries in dandenong that have a lot of heavy truck cartage.

So, CEU should generate good revenues.

disclosure: i dont own CEU, & dont intend to buy into it.
doesnt really float my boat , these sort of companies.
I think coal & csm companies are the latest stock market fad at the moment
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 23 2008, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

just trawling the ss boards for anything with
the word coal in the company name.

TCM is a tiny microcap. tradingroom.com.au showing 15 million shares
listed. although their could be a lot of unlisted shares floating about.

i might have a look into TCM , to see if its worth a small punt.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 23 2008, 11:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

SMN is looking very ordinary.
a cap raising is now required yet again. I really
thought by this stage they would have commerical orders
to pay the bills.

CVM as we know, is a finished approved retail product , that can be sold
to customers. SMN is going to need an avalanche of orders in the next
12 months to have any hope of a share price recovery.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 5 2008, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (geenmeister @ Monday 14/04/08 07:21pm)

BXP suspended for the next 2 weeks

i think the fat lady has cleared her throat & is making
her way on stage at the moment,
the curtain is up & the audience is waiting with baited breath

BXP is a case study in how to destroy a wonderful business,
& any business/commerce student should study the sad history of BXP
to show what you should not do.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 4 2008, 03:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

ASX release on 2/5/08 from SMN directing you
to their website in relation to a new broker report.

But its not a broker report, just a paid advertisement.
If you read the fine print on the last page(which is difficult to read)
it states they were commissioned & paid for the report.
SMN needs orders; not fake broker advertising
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 2 2008, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

they only listed in march 2006, so give the boys a chance.
you dont want to see them overworked do you.
They have 4 qtrly reports to write each year &
those stressful board meetings they have as well.

They also have to upgrade their Lexus sports coupes each year,
& choosing the right colour & matching leather trim can take quite sometime.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: May 2 2008, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

sook,
BXP seems to getting hammered from all sides.
The newsagents are screaming blue murder & now optus
claims they have not been paid, time will tell if BXP survives.

If BXP do fail , the real reason behind it will be bopo.
I have speculated in the past bopo might have cost $30 million.
But it is more than likely it cost $50 million with ongoing annual opex costs as well.

Had this money been put into the billpay/dialtime business(& maintained subsides
for the newsagents), BXP would be a completely different company.

everybody makes mistakes in business, its just that BXP"s mistake is a huge one.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Apr 30 2008, 10:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

qtrly report is out & its complete rubbish.
no information whatsoever.

You would think the high profile people running the show
could put in a bit of an effort.
card numbers up to 14 million.
We had 10 mill at the end of the first qtr,
............13 mill at the of the 2nd qtr,
& now 14 million in the 3rd qtr.

At a glance card numbers seem to be slowing, but i think the issue
of the cards is cyclical, favouring the 2nd half of the calender year.

The cards are issued by employers as a bonus/tax free payment,
so numbers would increase to match chinese new year/holidays.

ONC is profitable, how successful it will be is impossible to determine.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Apr 29 2008, 12:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: mme on Tuesday 29/04/08 11:09am

its got me stumped why optus want to withdraw their product
from the newsagents/BXP.

It does not matter who sells the product for you, as long as it gets sold,
& BXp/dialtime has 50% market share for pre-paid vouchers.
Why would you remove your product from such a high profile convenient retailer??????
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Apr 14 2008, 06:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://www.newsagencyblog.com.au/2008/04/1....html#more-3764


Newsagents walking from Bill Express
mark on April 11, 2008 3:51 PM · 4 Comments
The Australian Newsagents’ Federation has announced today that it will not renew its relationship with Bill Express. While they announced this some weeks ago, Bill Express had another crack at a relationship. This was rejected. Newsagents will applaud them for this.

Here’s part of what the ANF said to member newsagents today:

Bill Express has recently approached the ANF with fresh proposals for our two organisations to continue working together past the termination date of the present channel agreement which ends on 31 May 2008. Over the last several weeks the ANF has been in discussions with Bill Express and has been evaluating those proposals. The ANF has concluded that those proposals do not merit a continuing relationship beyond the present arrangements.
Hundreds of newsagents are trying to quit their contracts with Bill Express - all because Bill Express removed a long standing financial subsidy paid to newsagents which, for most, was the difference between loss and break even.

Bill Express is so swamped by newsagents wanting to quit that they are not responding to newsagent request to terminate their agreements.

Today’s announcement by the ANF is a material change to Bill Express’ circumstances and I’d expect an ASX announcement to follow.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Apr 12 2008, 07:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

welcome to SS ferrit, good first post you have produced.
yes, on face value at a $30 mill mkt cap it might look like a good buy.
But , i wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot barge pole.
I was also seduced by the high ebitda figures.
But management has found very impressive ways to get rid of this money.
Without going over old ground, xip media & bopo will fail, so will be
written off. They are throwing millions at bopo in opex, etc.

BXP is not worth the effort.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 28 2008, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

very hard to know the true value of bill pay in regards to its flow on effects of increased business. I think the theory of getting extra sales is flawed, I.E. a customer paying a bill
might buy a magazine,etc.
I believe it might be the other way around. In the fact that a customer buys that magazine
anyway(so is an existing customer) & brings his/her bill in to pay as well.

The newsagents get about 80cents or $1.00 (from memory) for each bill processed.
It is time consuming , & would be a nuisance during busy times, but welcomed during quiet times.
I think newsagents would want to keep dialtime(pre-paid phone vouchers)
but would like to get rid of billpay. I dont think BXP would separate the franchise
arrangements though. You would have to keep the whole system.

The 'Ezipass" system launched 6 mths ago by a newsagent owner might entice
them to change over to just a pure mobile phone voucher supplier.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 26 2008, 05:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

just had a browse of that newsagent blog
which i have linked to before.

a subsidy of $250 per month for 4000 newsagents
works out to $12 million a year, this is obviously part of
the reason for BXP"s poor profit performance,
combined with the bopo/xip media disasters.
$12 million back into the BXP coffers should improve things dramatically i would think.


http://www.newsagencyblog.com.au/2008/03/1....html#more-3601
Not much good news for Bill Express today. Their share price has fallen to 10.5 cents, from 12.5 cents yesterday. There is a growing volume of dissent among newsagents about the unilateral removal by a $250 per store per month marketing subsidy by Bill Express last month.

While I am no lawyer, the documents I have seen now from several newsagents suggest that Bill Express has breached the agreement it had with these newsagent. In one case, Bill Express wrote:

In a nutshell, this guarantees that, combined with the other rebates we pay now, you won;t be out of pocket.

Thanks to the Bill Express action last month, this newsagent is out of pocket.

In another Bill Express document provided to a newsagent as part of their representations, Bill Express said:

Express Shop has formed a Marketing Support/Incentive program to offset costs to your business. This incentive is equivalent to making up the shortfall of up to 200 bill payment transactions and in recognition of your efforts in meeting the criteria outlined below and will effectively ensure that you are at a break even or better position.

Thanks to the Bill Express action last month, this newsagent is no longer at a break even or better position - even though they have done everything required of them by Bill Express.

It appears that Bill Express is prepared to breach its agreements and commitments with newsagents, both written and oral, in order to preserve cash. given the action individual newsagents are talking of, this may well prove to be false economy by the company.

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 26 2008, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (fatty @ Monday 03/03/08 09:26am)

well put there, fatty.
To completely destroy a sound profitable business with
perpetual reliable earnings is quite an achievement.

BXP has its own personal sub-prime mortgage crisis,
in the fact it will take a few years to work off all the debt & bad business
decisions they have made. It will be time to re-visit BXP circa 2012
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 17 2008, 11:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760


just off the newswire J.P. buying bear stearns.
Only a slight discount to its yearly s.p. high of $160


J.P. Morgan Chase to buy Bear Stearns for 2 dollars/share
Monday March 17, 2008, 12:02 pm

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080317/33/1no10.html
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Mar 15 2008, 07:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the collapse of Bear stearns on the US bourse
overnite is not going to help our bank stocks on monday morning.

Bear Stearns , even at its peak s.p. was a small company by USA standards.

A peak s.p. of $160 a year ago would have given it a mkt cap of $18 billion.
Now its about $3.6 billion.

Although its borrowings & leverage would probably be in the
many $100sss billions of dollars, & this is where the damage is done.

We might see the ASX200 below 5000 in the coming week.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Mar 11 2008, 03:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i am glad i dont take any notice of my own posts.
I thought BFG was a reasonable buy at $1.75.
now its a $1.10.

from a high of a $627 mill mkt cap to a $250 mill mkt cap,
way below the IPO price.
Everything related to the financial sector is getting slaughtered.
If it hits 30cents i might consider it a punt.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 10 2008, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

my $29.05 NAB purchase is looking worse by the day,
i was only joking in an earlier post when i said NAB is heading
towards 10 year lows, but it looks like it might be the case.

10 year price chart
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Mar 10 2008, 12:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760


Its now been one year since SMN got approval for
their products to be installed on boeing aircraft.......

08/03/2007 Boeing agreement to include CVM technology in manual

To date, as a result of this approval; they have recieved zero orders.
i know SMN are making statements about orders they expect; &
probably will receive; but its been a torturous wait.

I dont expect maintenance orders from existing airlines will re-rate SMN's
shareprice too much. It might creep back up to 20cents if we are lucky.

The holy grail would be airbus including CVM on their new & forthcoming aircraft
as a standard item.

Whether this eventuates has yet to be seen.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Mar 6 2008, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

this post is from optionsman fron the sek thread; because it
might be of interest to a wider audience of SS members i thought i would
post it here


Yes Daggie, it has been painful. The most frustrating thing for me has been in the same time period I've actually done ok with my other stocks that I am holding, like MIS, BHP and PGM. All of the profits I have made on those have been wiped out by Invest 4 Profit!

So I pay this guy $1100 per year to lose me money while my own research yielded results that made money!!! And this is in teh same time period!!!!! Perhaps I should start up an advice service too!

I just think Paul Nojin, aka Invest 4 Profit, like the rest of them, at the end of the day only make money for themselves. Not only that, but his strategy has been all over the place - he says he is in it for the long term - two weeks later he sells!!!! What the??? And have you noticed how nearly all of his 'predictions' about the market direction are wrong?? I reckon he has got it right about 20% of the time!!!! You are probably better off doing the exact opposite of what he says.

I would strongly advise everyone on SS to avoid these guys.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Mar 3 2008, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

catching falling knives.

A practise i thought i gave up years ago.
my NAB purchase @ $29.05c is starting to look bad already.
NAB seems to be heading towards 10 year lows.

oh well, at least i didn't buy at $45.
Safe "bank stocks" losing half their value is a frightening sight
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Mar 2 2008, 09:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i went to a trading seminar about 3 years ago &
the presenter told the audience that if you had of
picked the bottom & tops of TLS over the past
12 months you would have made 400%.

What a complete idiot.

any liquid stock is a good trading stock if you can pick the tops & bottoms
As one wise trader once said , there is someone that buys at the bottom &
someone that sells at the top, but its never the same person.

If you want some volatile trading you could just
trade the ASX200. Thats going up & down like a yo-yo,
with 2%+ swings from day to day.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Mar 1 2008, 07:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (Ratman @ Saturday 01/03/08 09:18am)

ratman,
i think the phrase i have at the bottom of my posts apply to BXP.

normally their would be 30 posts worth of discussion about BXP"s results.
but its not even worth the effort.
Just to cover a few key points:
Even if you ignore the non-recurring loss, the ebitda figure is going backwards.
The core dialtime/billpay business is not expanding with only a 5% increase , which is basically inline with cpi.
No bopo card numbers, so it is still a low figure i presume, maybe 20,000 cards issued.

The numbnuts have also decided BXP is a satellite broadband company,nothing can be said about that without a lot of swearing.

BXP can now be removed from watchlist altogether.

R.I.P. .....BXP

Just to add another thing, BXP's results came out at 6.45pm, after the market
had closed, so monday will see how the market rates it.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 27 2008, 10:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

news item from reuters
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKWLB776320080227

LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Ceramic Fuel Cells (CFU.L: Quote, Profile, Research) expects up to two more substantial orders from power utilities, similar to a deal worth up to 100 million pounds ($197 million) announced on Wednesday, in the next 12 months, according to a source close to the situation.

"Ceramic Fuel Cells expects other (utility partners) to follow Nuon," said the source.

"We expect at least one and hopefully two more of these deals in the next 12 months," said the source.

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 27 2008, 07:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

if you have a look at glenview265 post on Saturday 23/02/08 05:13pm ,
the ninemsn article had this,

The units will be priced between 2,000 euros ($2,963) and 2,500 euros each, Dow said.

10,000 units x $3000 = $30 million annual sales.
This order is really symbolic from an earnings/shareholder perspective,
in that ninemsn article a broker said they expect CFU to be profitable in 2010/2011.

they have the ability to expand to 160,000 units, & if they achieve sales like that CFU
will be an impressive company.
CFU is still a small cap risky stock & still needs to be viewed as such.
Since CFU themselves dont no how successful or unsuccessful they are going to be,
its also impossible for shareholders to know whats going to happen either.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 27 2008, 05:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

something out of the ordinary is happening with CFU.
it might actually be a success.
ASX release just out, first commercial order for 10,000 units
per year for 5 years.

An australian high tech company becoming a success is a rare event indeed.
I hold CFU @ 80 cents per share.

Also , an increase in output to a 2kw design.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 26 2008, 09:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

like most horror penny dreadfuls OCO/FCP for any long term holders
is an unpleasant sight.
You need to remember that the minimum ASX IPO price is 20 cents.

Therefore, any company stock that is trading under that price has not been a success.
FCP has just used OCO as a shell to start their new business in, with 2 billion
new shares to add to the mix.

FCP came to my attention because i own ONC, & they have a large stake in that company.
its going to be a long wait for FCP to build up its business in china.
They have $30 million to spend, but they a small fish in a big pond.
(a $3 trillion GDP Chinese pond)
ONC already has a small foothold , so FCP"s share price might benefit if ONC succeeds.

For FCP, though i have no idea what they are planning to do, &
FCP management probably arent too sure either.

The $1million in interest earned doesnt mean much if its a $100 million company
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 24 2008, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i took the plunge in NAB on friday @ $29.05 per share.
Had a look in my archives , & the last time i owned NAB is when i
sold them on 20 jan 2005 for $28.65 per share.
The NAB share price is at 7 year lows at the moment,
which doesn't mean it cant go lower of course.

but if NAB ends up at $16.00 or CBA falls to $30, it would
mean a complete failure in the financial system.
If that was to occur it would not matter what stocks u are in, because
the ASX 200 would probably be at 4000 points.
A handful of financial stocks make up 40% of the value of the
australian stock market.
So it wont be pretty if they collapse.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Feb 20 2008, 10:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

might as well keep talking to myself on this thread,
Xstrata have 67% as of today, & have extended
their deadline to the 3rd of march to mop up remaining
shareholders.

time for me to start sniffing around for another coal company to buy.

the only stocks going up these days are coal & iron ore companies.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 18 2008, 03:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i dont hold BXP, but still look for announcements regularly.

The last half yearly was released on the 21st feb 2007,
so this years half shouldn't be to far away
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 18 2008, 02:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Xstrata have 43% as of friday , with at least another
10% today, which gives them 53%.

RSP will now recommend the full t/o for all
shareholders now that they are above 50%
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 15 2008, 01:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: wizzkid on Tuesday 05/02/08 09:59am

Xstrata are very good at this t/o game, a lot smarter than
our management.
RSP have accepted the $3.20 offer, with 25% of the company
changing hands today. Majority of those are very large trades
@ $3.20 from Xstrata buying on market. i would probably
guess that have 35% to 40% of RSP scrip at the moment.
Over the next 2 years it will show Xstrata got a bargain with RSP.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 11 2008, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

been in a trading halt since jan 18 shows
they are terrified about how the market is going to treat them
when trading resumes.
i know they going thru price sensitive discussions & restructuring,
but its not too good for the lame duck shareholders who cant sell (or buy) MFS scrip
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Feb 3 2008, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (datum @ Tuesday 03/04/07 07:16pm)

Just replying to my own post from april 2007.
i said that i expected SMN to not move from 20cents for the next 12 months.
I was wrong, because it did move, all the way down to 10 cents.

SMN desperately needs some paying customers, & its taking a long time.
I am getting a bit uneasy about Airbus.
They have been evaluating & testing the CVM product for the last 6 years.
Using it on their fatigue test rigs.
Their is a possibility that Airbus will go no furhter with the use of the CVM product.
Installing & integrating CVM on their new & existing fleets would
be a company maker for SMN. but i dont think its going to happen,

SMN will have to rely on existing fleets to sell their products.
Another long term wait for investors, probably another 12 months.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (datum @ Monday 22/10/07 10:41pm)

the way they are going it will be 2 years (since listing) before
anything happens. (listed mar 2006)


i was wrong about my above guess. Its going to be
april 2008 before the first drill.
i am patiently waiting to throw a bit of money at CTP
before it starts.

although april 2008 to CTP management probably means Oct 2008
to regular people.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 05:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

RSP is battering shareholders with info.
Constantly talking up their prospects. Xstrata
must be somewhat bemused by all this,
because i certainly am.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the qtrly report is out, & its rubbish.
no concrete figures to work on.
just basically an advertising brochure
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 30 2008, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

looks like CCY is on its way to reflecting its true value,
which is zero.
CCY will join the ranks of the tiny micro caps on the ASX bourse
that have no place being there.
The endless cycle of cap raising's & share dilutions will begin, & probably to
last for many years to come.

They have to pay CEO & directors fees after all.
The lease payments on their lexus sports coupes probably don't
come cheap either.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 25 2008, 05:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: datum on Thursday 06/09/07 12:39am

just replying to my own post on Thursday 06/09/07 12:39am

just had a look at NFL again to refresh my memory,
s.p. now 10cents.

I should be a multi-millionaire within the next few years
a quote from my old post is a great lesson to us all.

never never never average down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jan 24 2008, 07:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

king,
in my limited experience PFL"s share price is dropping purely
from lack of interest in this stock.

As an example about 6 years ago Futuris corp (FCL) dropped
from $2.70 to $1.80 when they had a bad half report.
I bought in at $1.80 thinking i was a genius.
The stock then promptly slid to $1.00.

there is nothing fundamentally wrong with PFL,
its just no-one"s interested.

I dont not hold PFL.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 22 2008, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

ann. out, FDA has rejected SBN's oraline.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 21 2008, 10:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

anyone with a dodgy heart or pacemaker fitted,
should not read this post. European bourse"s getting
slaughtered at the moment. Still with 3 or 4 hours trading left.
Have to wait to i get up in the morning to see the final result.



http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/m2

CAC 40 (France) 4,738.94 ......................-353.46 (-6.94%)

DAX (Germany) 6,828.88 11:55am ........ -485.29 (-6.63%)

FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) 5,576.90 ....... -324.80 (-5.50%)

  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Jan 21 2008, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

db76
i have had DLS sulking at the back of my watchlist
for 18 mths. i only have a very vague grasp of DLS,
because i have never got round to buying it.

They are doubling the amount of shares on issue,
so i dont no if it will trading below fair value after those shares are issued
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 21 2008, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

qtrly report out. They have finally got longwall
mining restarted, 3 mths late.

I still believe RSP's management are keen to sell,
this from the bottom of page 2...........
Resource pacific is open to discussions with Xstrata on
the value of these synergies.


I think RSP will probably give approval for a lower
price than $3.50. Maybe around the $3.20 to $3.30 mark
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 20 2008, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

everbody invests the way they see fit,
But i have a slightly different view on charting.To put it
politey, i think charting is absolute rubbish. I used to have some
respect for charting in relation to large caps , such as the ASX top 50 stocks.
But i now believe charting is useless for anything.

it is especially useless for micro/small caps like INL.
INL is only a $40 million company. The ASX listed bourse overall
market capitalisation is about $1.2 trillion. Work out what percentage INL makes
up of this , & it will be very small.

If a company (any company, not just INL)is going to be profitable
the s.p will go up, if not the s.p will go down, until proven otherwise.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 18 2008, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: datum on Wednesday 12/12/07 12:47pm

mkt cap has dropped to $440 mill from $627 mill,
in this current share mkt rout.
$32.5 mill npat for the full yr gives a p.e of around 13.
if the mkt stays at it is BFG probably wont recover to
previous highs. with M & A activity slowing & general
bullish mkt conditions disappearing BFG wont be able
to maintain 40% growth rates. At $1.75 BFG is probably worth
a punt. But their might not be much happening in the next 12 months
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 16 2008, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

lead prices on kitco is showing a drop from
1.60 to 1.20. Dont no if its a computer glitch
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 11 2008, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i disagree. I think it was a very sad pathetic ann.
they have marked it "market sensitive", which is an
act of desperation in my opinion.

a photo of a truck & bulldozer might excite a 3 year old,
but it does nothing for me.

I hold INL @ 16.5cents
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 8 2008, 11:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

thanks, floyd, for that update

bit of news from the london/uk listed bourse,
they seem to get updates a day before we do.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?cod...play=news&it=le

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - European Nickel PLC said it has expanded its joint venture agreement with Rusina Mining NL for the Acoje nickel deposit on Luzon Island in the Philippines.

The company said the joint venture has been expanded to include the recently purchased nickel laterite deposit on the nearby area covered by the Zambales Chromite (ZC) licence, adding that it reported a significant increase in its Philippine mineral resources.

European Nickel said the parties have also completed the acquisition of the mineral production sharing agreement for the ZC deposit for a total of 2.05 mln usd.

tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com ssr/jrr

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 8 2008, 05:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

mr sharescene, code change required , from...............

OCO, ORIEL COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED

to.........................
FCPB Investments Limited (FCP)

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 6 2008, 07:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Agree with u willial(esp symonds)
terrible result for cricket itself.
I am australian & want us to do well,but this was rubbish
Andrew Symonds should have be out for 40 odd in the 1st innings
& went on to make 162.
India should have won this match, they have been ripped off big time.
i dont think India will even try in the third test, why bother.
We need a competitive test series.
The 5-0 ashes win was a terrible result for cricket as well.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Jan 4 2008, 04:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Rsp's valuation is out.
$3.56 to $4.09 with a recommended value of $3.82.

whats interesting is that on the 2nd page (in large lettering)
they have said..... Xstrata should pay more

This implies that they are more than willing to sell RSP.
Normally you would expect management to try & hold on to their
jobs & convince shareholders what a great company RSP will be in
2 to 5 years time.
RSP will be sold. Probably for around $3.50
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Jan 2 2008, 01:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

that announcement is the best piece of
corporate double speak i have ever seen.

pretending to say something when actually saying nothing
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 31 2007, 12:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

arttse
Why did the Geostar deal collapse.??????
They announced this alliance in a mkt sensitive document on 4/7/2006.

but i cant find any reference to the withdrawal of the deal.
It might be buried at the back of an annual report somewhere.

for ESI as a company, its still a red or black stock to me.
(as on the roulette wheel)
you will win big or lose big. it is basically impossible to research this company
or its competitors in any meaningful way. There are probably dozens of
companies around the world researching/developing new clean coal methods.
Regardless of how hard you look, you will never know the true answer.

The ASX bourse is littered with the dead , dying & rotting corpses of good ideas.
ERG , Chemeq (CMQ), Metal Storm(MST) are a few recent examples of this.

I dont no if ESI will succeed.
Its has now been almost 2 years since ESI relisted & acquired this new technology,
10/02/2006 Enters Agreement to Acquire Asia Pacific Coal and Steel P/L
If this technology is a world beater you would think they would MOU"s with
half the world"s coal fired power station owners by now.
I would not expect contracts , of course; but MOU"s for customers to say we are
interested in your product.

Having said all that, ESI is probably worth a punt, i dont expect them to have a monopoly
with Coldry , but they should get customers. But i think they will be just a small player in
this industry competing with a lot of other players.

On the current low mkt cap , the downside risk should be limited.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 28 2007, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

FCPB Investments Limited (FCP)
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 22 2007, 04:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

geenmeister,
i was a long term holder of BXP, for well over two years.
& have been a contributor to this thread for a similar
amount of time.
I no longer hold BXP , but monitoring developments.

but, dont take any notice of what i post, anything i have to say
is absolute rubbish.
I have been wrong about everything in the past two years,
so i will probably continue to be wrong in regards to the
fortunes or misfortunes of BXP
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 21 2007, 05:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

just read thru the last 4 months of
posts on OCO, not a lot of happy punters who are long term
holders of OCO.
FCP is basically using OCO as a shell company to house their assets & ambitions.
Initially i found it strange they did not find just an 'empty" shell company
that had no assets & no future & just take it over.

The original merger offer released on the 21/06/07
states that FCP will provide additional funding for BilltoBill, so FCP must
see value in OCO"s current activites & probably can expand on OCO"s customer base
quite rapidly, espically with the large plans they have.

i would stick with OCO/FCP if you still hold shares, even if you have been screwed over.
Their high ambitions in China might result in a great future.

Whats happen to minor shareholders in OCO is just showing us the stock-market
wasnt created for the benefit of punters like you or I, its sole purpose is to
further enrich the already enriched.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 18 2007, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Fat Prophets newsletter has been tipping this stock for
the best part of 12 months.
Very favorable broker reports (by them)listed on the Rusina website.

the Herald Sun newspaper(sundays edition) has a "battle of the tipsters" in
the finance section.
one of the these tipsters is Gavin Wendt, resources analyst of Fat prophets.
He sold out of his Rusina shares in that competition. I dont no if this is a trading decision
or a decision from Fat Prophets itself. The competition is only paper trading with
a $2000 bet on each of 5 stocks.

I dont subscribe to Fat Prophets, but would be interested to know if
they have bailed out of RML.

I hold a small position in RML
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 17 2007, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: albion on Monday 17/12/07 02:34pm

the tasteofmoney post is 2 years old...........on Friday 16/12/05
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 17 2007, 01:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

very ugly. this companies yearly s.p. high
reflected a market cap of $8.5 billion.
now its a $1.5 billion company. So much for safe property trusts.

I wouldn't like to have any CFD long positions, you would have been wiped out.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 12 2007, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

its now been two weeks since the AGM.

i have been monitoring www.billexpressltd.com & www.brr.com (boardroomradio)
& they have not posted an AGM webcast of the event as they have done in previous years.
They did release a presentation on the 3/12/2007, but their was no new info in that.

so, it looks like we wont be getting a webcast this year. Which means the
50 shareholders who attended the AGM are fully informed, but the other 10,000
shareholders who did not attend are left in the dark.

billpay has signed up a few more customers recently. Billpay might sort of sneak up
up on us unexpectedly. By that i mean the $2 bill worth of annual bills being
processed could easily jump up to $4 bill to $5 bill annually once a large portion of
the general public are aware of it.

I might time my re-entry back into BXP , maybe mid next year. I was going
to wait 2 years, but things might kick on next year.

Bopo is still my main concern though.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 12 2007, 12:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

vendors selling at the top of the cycle is always a good thing.
Good for the vendors , that is.

251 million shares, fully diluted gives a mkt cap of $627 million(@ $2.50 share price)
forecasting pro forma NPAT of $32.5 mill for the year ending dec 31st 2007.
So , a P.E. of 19.
They have had a 40% compound growth rate over the last 3 years, thanks to the bull market.
At a P.E. of 19 , i think the short term downside risk(I.E. the next 12 months)
is very small if you buy this stock.
The bull mkt (especially in resources) looks set to continue.

So BFG should continue to grow their NPAT, whether they maintain 40% a year
compound growth for an extended period of time is highly doubtful.

But this is certainly worth a bit of money, this stock.
Companies like Seek (SEK) & Wotif (WTF) or Csl (CSL) get ascribed
high p.e. multiples for the growth factor applyed to their business(s).

BFG might be treated with similar multiples.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 5 2007, 01:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i agree that RSP deserves a premium for 2010 production.(expecting 8 mill/tpa)
my earlier posts on this shows i value RSP at $5.00 per share in two years time.

the problem is intso"s (and shareholders alike) have a take the money & run attitude.
A large number of shareholders might be happy with a 100% short term gain.
We also have execution & production issues involved with underground longwall mining
that might put off any one planning a long term hold of RSP scrip.

I will have to disagree with your scrip based bid comments.

if NHC raise their scrip bid price, & the market doesnt like it,
The NHC share price will be slaughtered , thus wiping out any theoretical
offer price. Thats the risk NHC take.

100% cash has no restrictions or risks.
Everybody know's what cash is.

excellent comments, from you though, street talk.

good arguments is what SS is all about
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 5 2007, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Xstrata Coal"s $2.85 cash bid.
NHC has no chance of matching that bid, being scrip based.

the market is expecting a higher bid having pushed it up
to $3.05 as i type. i would not expect a higher bid or counter bid
at this stage. Where RSP is placed at the moment, RSP is fully priced.
In 2 years time , though it would be a different story.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 4 2007, 07:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

a bit of a jump today.
$2.90 is exactly the target price
some brokers have for RSP. ABN Amro brokers have just taken a 5% stake.
always entertaining these t/o plays, might be another bidder
in the wings ready to have a crack.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Dec 4 2007, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the market is quite a harsh taskmaster.
It's a bit like mother nature, now & again it
needs to show u who is boss.

Very difficult to forecast what will be the end result. That oilers for you.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 29 2007, 08:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i wasnt meaning to compare that article to bopo.
In BXp"s annual reports they have a vision of a cashless
society that they want to be a part of.
the costs & competition involved might be against them.
Thats why i have been critical of this over the last 18 months.
BXP"s only hope would be an alliance with a smaller bank to enter
into that new area of the market.

Now that i have sold out of BXP, the s.p. is sure to rocket upwards.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 29 2007, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

continual delays with longwall change over,
& acts of god with a bit of flooding.
bookbuild price of $2.30 shows the new issue
was keenly sought after.
3 million tonne allocation for CY2008 is quite good.
I was expecting a lot less from newcastle port.

Still have a 2 year hold/outlook on this stock.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 29 2007, 01:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

yes youre right,
i have got it the wrong way round.
It is one or two large sellers , resulting in a lot of small
buyers absorbing that order.
So, one large seller dumped $100,000 worth of stock.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 28 2007, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the 665000 shares traded at 12.32pm was made up of 29 parcels.

so it is the retail/mug punters selling out & one large buyer scooping up the lot.
The average price seems to be about 16 cents for the shares ,
which is $106400. This is a large buy for a basket case like NFL.

QUOTE
There may well have been 100+ people buying shares today, but not too many selling them.


I think you mean 100+ sellers , but a small amount of buyers snapping them up.

I dont own NFL, i dont see any upside , the market has no guidance for the
refined Gylcerine profits. But that large buyer might be a sign towards a better future for NFL.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 28 2007, 06:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

geen,
i am no longer in BXP, i sold out after 2 1/2 painful years.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
just lifted this article off the NAB site.
BXP"s vision of a cashless society is 100% correct.
The only problem is, i dont expect BXP to be a part of it.



Telstra, NAB and VISA to develop an Australian First

Telstra, NAB and Visa intend to develop Australia's first trial allowing customers to pay for goods and services with a wave of their mobile phone.

The trial will see a select number of Telstra and NAB customers supplied with a smart mobile phone specifically enabled to allow them to pay for goods or services with Visa.

The phone will be embedded with contactless near field communications (NFC) technology, with the SIM card loaded with a NAB Visa card application. NAB customers would then be able to make a payment simply by waving their Telstra mobile phone over a merchant's contactless reader.

Making a Visa payWave contactless payment with a Telstra mobile phone is the first of many potential applications of the new NFC technology.

Telstra Group Managing Director Enterprise and Government, David Thodey, said Telstra contactless enabled mobile phones may, in the future, also be used to hold loyalty, membership cards, marketing offers, public transport tickets and building access security cards.

"Instead of having a wallet or purse full of plastic cards, you could soon have them all supported on a single Telstra mobile phone, providing enhanced security and convenience," Mr. Thodey said.

NAB Executive General Manager Retail Banking, Andrew Thorburn, said the trial was an exciting step for banking in Australia and that NAB was pleased to be working with Telstra and Visa.

"In the not too distant future we envisage NAB customers being able to walk into a shop, give their mobile a quick wave over a reader and simply walk out with their purchases," Mr. Thorburn said.

"This is cutting edge technology that is being tested by leading banks and telcos around the world. Our trial will include mobile phones as well as contactless Visa cards, and will keep our customers at the forefront of easy and secure banking technology."

"As one of Australia's largest suppliers of EFTPOS terminals for merchants we are also excited about the benefits of Visa payWave contactless transactions for our business customers. This could not only mean less cash handling, but also faster service times and less queuing at the check-out."

Visa International Executive Vice President, Australia, New Zealand and South Pacific, Bruce Mansfield, said Visa is committed to offering new and innovative ways for consumers to pay and for merchants to be paid.

"The Telstra NAB Visa initiative will show how convergence of mobile technology and payment services can bring benefits to Australian consumers," Mr Mansfield said.

"Visa's mobile payment services are being trialled by financial institutions and telecommunications companies in the United States and Asia. Visa expects the experience from those initiatives will be of great benefit to this partnership with NAB and Telstra, and will help ensure a smooth introduction in Australia."

The trial begins in Melbourne in early 2008 and includes joint Telstra and NAB Visa customers as well as selected merchants.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 28 2007, 05:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

$392,302 worth of stock sold , with 126 trades today.
This is an average trade value of $3113 per trade.

So i think this is what traders/chartist call the final capitulation.
Where the punters have given up all hope.

Admittedly it could have been one seller selling in lots of parcels,
but i doubt it. I think any institutional holders have already exited NFL.
Hawley,
At the AGM did they give you any figures for refined Gylcerine
profits/sales , etc.????
they will have to provide the market with something to stand
any chance of a stockmarket re-rating
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 23 2007, 09:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

"Enough research will tend to support your theory."
Murphy's Law
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Nov 23 2007, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: sharp737 on Friday 23/11/07 09:06am

Production costs at Tui are about NZ$15 a barrel, so the actual return to NZOG and partners from each barrel could be close to NZ$120.

a lot of debate about about production costs on this thread,
the article sharp737 posted is quoting around US$11 bbl.
Which is extremely low if correct, a lot of times journalists
make stuff ups when reporting figures.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 20 2007, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the vendors who got paid with 140 million shares
at an implied price of 20cents must be suitably impressed
with their investment.
They probably had plans to offload their holding over a period of time.

at this stage the mountain of EPY scrip they are holding would only
be of use to go and hang in the dunny.
Nonetheless i will keep an eye on EPY , the business might turn around in
the next couple of years, so i might take a small punt on it
sometime in the future.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 19 2007, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (sook @ Thursday 15/11/07 06:07pm)

vcard is a different type of product to bopo.
but still a competitor for that type of market bopo is in.
vcard truly is a disposable prepaid voucher( like a mobile top-up)
whereas bopo is reloadable & you have a psychical card for
normal face to face shopping.
As per my previous posts on bopo, i think the retail market end of
these product offerings are very competitive.
The strategy the bopo management team of chasing after the
corporate/commercial end of the market is a good one.
such as Europcar & the alliance with quickbooks accounting.
This area of the market will dictate whether
bopo succeeds or fails
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 17 2007, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

another good article to sink you teeth into

Goldman warns of a substantial US recession
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 11:23pm GMT 16/11/2007


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../bcngold116.xml

If leveraged investors see $200bn of the $400bn aggregate credit loss, they might need to scale back their lending by $2 trillion. This is a large shock," he said.

On Thursday the US Federal Reserve pumped $47bn into the banking system, the biggest one-day infusion of liquidity since the 9/11 Twin Towers attack in 2001.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Nov 17 2007, 06:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

shan,
i took a small position in CHP a few months back. CHP is like
backing a 100:1 runner in the melbourne cup.

Both CHP & Bell Ixl would make a good fit together. The reason being; both
companies are absolute rubbish. CHP is a tiny micro cap listed on the ASX.
Bell is a tiny micro cap listed on the NSX.

http://www.nsxa.com.au/company_details.asp?nsxcode=BXL

http://www.bellixl.com/index.htm

Both companies are claiming an NTA backing of around $3 million.
Bell Ixl have been trying to find a way to join the big boys club
(a listing on the ASX) for quite some time. They have failed dismally in all their attempts.
Its quite common for small micro caps such as CHP to be taken over and used as a
"shell company". This avoids an IPO & all the heavy ASX & broker fees that goes with it.

Bell Ixl , i believe do not have the money , expertise or ability to take over CHP.
They might try and attempt a merger of some sort.
Also, the NTA backing both companies are claiming is to be viewed with great suspicion.
CHP , for example have been trying to sell some property in Fiji valued at $1.5 million.
They have not been able to sell it for 3 years. if it was "marked to market" the value would be a lot lower.
I dont no what Bell Ixl are claiming as assets, but i bet they would be rubbish as well.

All in all, both companies are lowest form of listed vehicles you could find anywhere on the planet. Run by a useless bunch of turkeys.

The reason i bought CHP is their might in fact be a bit of corporate action & the s.p. might
creep back up to 5 or 6 cents.

d.y.or.......datum
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 16 2007, 06:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

St Barbara Limited SBM
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 15 2007, 02:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

thought this might interest SS members,
just lifted it off the tradingroom.com website



--------------------------------------------------------------------------
IIN - IINET LTD - up 2.5 cents to $1.805

Broadband is about to get "naked" in a move that may further reduce dependence on the traditional telephone.

iiNet today announced it will be the first internet service provider in Australia to offer broadband ADSL2+ (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) without a telephone service, also known as Naked DSL.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Nov 15 2007, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i think the punters gave up on this horror penny
dreadful years ago. Its only very moderate volume at the moment,
$90,000 worth of stock sold.

It does not mean much.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 13 2007, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

looks like some bad news coming,
20% drop today indicates someone knows
something the market isnt aware of yet
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 12 2007, 04:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (sirob @ Monday 12/11/07 03:32pm)

your PDN experience is the same as my CVN experience.

i bought CVN at 7 cents in oct 2002 & sold at 5 cents in feb 2006.
4 years of painful incompetent management, which is very common in
penny dreadful stocks. The management are just their for the wages & the perks.

Its pretty obvious market timing when buying stocks is critically important
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 12 2007, 04:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: usal on Monday 12/11/07 03:09pm

its usually a sign their is more sellers than buyers.
& if the price goes up its vice versa.

MGX is still at near record highs. 3 years ago it was 20 cents.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 12 2007, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: apache123 on Friday 09/11/07 08:26am

an 8 billion barrel find sounds a lot, but
we are using around 32 billion bbls a year,
so in reality its only 3 mths world supply in simplistic terms
  Forum: Macro Factors

datum
Posted on: Nov 8 2007, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i need help ( no, not the psychiatric kind)

i do not own HGR. but was going to take a position after an expected
cap raising.
Last qtr they spent $1mill with $1.2 mill in cash left.

The ASX have queried this on the 7/11/2007.
The HGR response indicates that it was an unusually high qtr in expenses.

Although they do not specifically say it, it seems they might be close to break even.
The question i have for those that have a in depth knowledge of HGR,
Are they close to break even.???? I am aware of HGR"s business & pending FDA approval.
But actual volume sales could be some way off.

A cap raising is always a handy entry point which can depress the share price.
It seems they might not need one though????????
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 8 2007, 08:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760



How to build your own BHP Billiton

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...2-15023,00.html

thought i would post this, an interesting article
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Nov 8 2007, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

ONQ has relisted with their annual report lodged.

...........datum

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 7 2007, 02:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/071107/19/1h3b8.html

New Hope revises Resource Pacific bid to A$754 mln

Wednesday November 7, 2007, 1:58 pm


Under the new proposal, New Hope said it would offer 0.94 of its own shares for every Resource Pacific share, in a deal it said valued Resource Pacific at A$2.25 a share -- 12 percent lower than its previous offer which valued the firm's shares at A$2.55 a piece.

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 6 2007, 03:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

The world's first $US1 trillion ($A1.08 trillion) company

the link is a couple of posts back by ,apache123
(same article)
  Forum: Macro Factors

datum
Posted on: Nov 2 2007, 05:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i assume you mean , kahuna1
not aware his nickname is KB

correct me if i am wrong, & also help to
inform newer SS members who you are talking about.

Just did a search & i was wrong , you mean King Baz
both of them deserve an appreciation board though
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Nov 2 2007, 05:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

F.C,
i wish i could pick the exact bottom & top of my stocks.
i would turn myself into a millionaire overnite.
My march 2007 post on this thread said we are 12 to 18 mths away
from some excitement.
I still think this is the case, that it wont be until mid next year to
we see some solid orders come thru.

The airline industry seems to be an incredibly slow moving beast.
other possible customers such as bridge structures , etc,(as mentioned
in the SMN newsletters) is also a long way off as it goes thru
the same process of testing & evaluating the CVM product.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Nov 1 2007, 10:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

the NHC bid will now be void.
NHC have not made an official ASX release as yet, but they might
wait until the rights issue has been executed & then make a statement.
there is good chance they will maintain there offer, because
they have nothing to lose in trying.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 31 2007, 08:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i tend to agree with some posts from a few weeks back,
that PPP is probably correctly priced at this stage.

Being optimistic we are assuming PPP will receive $100 million
from its 1 million bbls in this financial year.
If the AUD/USD becomes equal in value(as predicted by some commentator's)
combined with the possible oil price dropping to $80bbl.
Then we would be looking at $80 million revenues 2007/2008.

i think the only impetus for s.p. movement is a possible upgrade to
field recovery volume & flows. which will be out at the end of December.(as per qtrly)

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 31 2007, 12:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

as per usual , i was completely wrong.
the 2+2 trading halt was to cover the standard T+3 trading regime.
so current holders as of Monday are entitled to the share issue.

Interesting to see if RSP takes a hit , with the offering set at $1.60.
Offer is fully underwritten , so the insto"s must be keen on the price.

i don't no if this makes the NHC t/o offer null & void because of this.
i would imagine so, because the company (from a financial perspective)
will change significantly
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 30 2007, 05:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: hawleybeach on Tuesday 30/10/07 10:54am

Hhad a quick read of the report & the Jatropha Oil contract
is only for a initial 2.5% of required feedstock volume for Singapore.
Rising to 25% in 2013 as the plants mature. so any benefit to
the bottom line is some way off.
I remember reading in one of their earlier announcements ,
that it could rise to 50% once their plantations mature.
but that could be 10 years away.
in the meantime they are at the mercy of market prices ,when
purchasing their current feedstock.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 29 2007, 06:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

RSP in a trading halt until monday.
the cap raising has been well documented to the mkt, so i
doubt the trading halt is related to that.

Hopefully a higher offer or counter bid for RSP,
preferably around the $5.00 mark
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 26 2007, 05:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760


RHG - RAMS HOME LOANS GROUP LTD - up one cent to 32.5 cents

An independent expert has concluded that RAMS Home Loans Group Ltd's sale of its franchise network to Westpac Banking Corporation Ltd for $140 million is in shareholders' best interests.

A report by Deloitte Corporate Finance said Westpac's purchase price was towards the higher end of its hypothetical fair-market value of the assets of between $35.6 million and $167.5 million.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 25 2007, 02:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

not holding or trading RHG, just following to
see how the story ends. Its good to watch the situation unfold in
these sort of companies. its a great learning experience i can apply
in the future.

The Intelligent investor( like the rest of us) gets its wrong on their picks as well.
They were bullish on Flight Centre(FLT) a couple of years
ago, with a buy at around the $18.00 mark. The stock then promptly dropped to
$9.00, although it since recovered quite well.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 25 2007, 01:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

their is nothing insidious or bad happening in SOT.
i.e. no insider trading , etc.
It is just a case of more sellers than buyers. So the s.p. goes down.

i had a similar situation in Lighting Corporation(LCL) a couple of years ago
i bought at 80cents on a 6% yield & it promptly dropped to 40 cents, giving
a 12% yield.
it has since recovered with a t/o on the table.

When SOT has a yield of 12%, that might be the time to buy.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 24 2007, 10:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

The "Intelligent Investor " is still heavily promoting rams,
below is an email flyer i received today

Once you’ve made your way through that, sign up to our $99 RAMS offer and we’ll show you an opportunity with less risk and a lot more potential reward. The share price has been hammered, and rightfully so, but at these prices the market is gifting us an opportunity. For just $99 you get all our RAMS research and a 3-month subscription.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 24 2007, 06:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: mikess on Wednesday 24/10/07 03:59pm

mikess,
being the tactful & extremely caring person that i am i will put this as
nicely as possible,......... its the dumbest idea you could possibly try.

As jfgao mentioned you have CGT which knocks your profits in half.
If you trade every day , which might be 300 times a year, your accountant
doing your tax return is going to charge you a fortune to sort
thru that mess.

picking the bottoms & tops is impossible. Assume a 50% hit rate will
basically cancel out your win/loss ratio. So at the end of the year
you will end up with zero.

I traded CFD's a couple of years ago & ended up with the scenario
as described above.

godspeed with your trading , young skywalker, may the force be with you.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Oct 23 2007, 11:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

agree with u their, although the ezipass software is free,
he sells other software/services to the newsagents industry.

Always like to post good news & the bad news about stocks.

for the record, i have sold out of BXP, but will be keeping tabs
on it if it looks like its worth re-entering.
waiting for the bopo debacle in particular to work its way
thru the system
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 23 2007, 04:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://www.towersystems.com.au/fhn_blog/ar...ass_easier.html
October 19, 2007
eziPass easier than Dialtime

The most common feedback we are hearing from newsagents who start using eziPass to sell phone recharge product is that it is easier to use than Dialtime. That and the additional commission they are making on key product.

The eziPass roll out to newsagents is going well. How could it not - it's free, easy to use, reduces paperwork and comes with an excellent reconciliation statement. Oh, and you;re likely to make more money.

The real benefit is the bringing of the sale of phone vouchers to the point of sale software - this considerably cuts mistakes and helps with in-store traffic management.

we launch the stand alone version next week - it is in QA right now. This is for newsagents not using Tower Systems software.

Posted by mark at October 19, 2007 07:05 PM

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 23 2007, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

AZD seems to be heading towards its true value,
which is zero.
although it is still above its IPO price of 8.33cents.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 23 2007, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i owned FCL a few years ago(as outlined in an earlier post)
FCL might have a reasonable divvy, but the s.p. basically hasn't
moved away from $2.00 for the past 10 years.
It has spiked up & down on occasion , but that's about it.
I think bank stocks are a better bet.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 22 2007, 10:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: jefftel on Monday 22/10/07 02:48pm

the way they are going it will be 2 years (since listing) before
anything happens. (listed mar 2006)
i think they have been addressing more important subjects.
I believe the CEO wanted lamination's for morning tea,
& the directors wanted jam biscuits.

So it took them about 12 months to sort out that problem.

on a more serious tact, you will regularly see management like CTP in
other companies. Why make an effort when you are getting paid
huge amounts for doing nothing. just stretch it out as long as possible,
these blokes dont give a stuff about shareholders.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 21 2007, 11:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Catching falling knives is quite a perlious affair.

Stocks such as SOT , CDR & RHG at the moment are
screaming at punters.......try & pick the bottom!!!!!!!!!

I gave up trying to catch falling knives years ago.
Its financial suicide, an extremely painful slow death.
i considered SOT a buy at 70cents, (especially with broker
valuations at $1.00+) but decided to hold fire.

Sometimes its the stocks you don't buy that make you the most money.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 20 2007, 09:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (29101971 @ Monday 15/10/07 09:37pm)

The simple answer to your question is, if you have somewhere
better to put your money, then do it. If not , i would stay put.
As for another bid , i would certainly would be expecting another
low ball bid slightly better than NHC.
Probably a scrip bid or combined scrip/cash bid.

The NHC bid is basically an insult. Being 100% scrip offer is a means
of buying a company for nothing. Admitly you get the dilutionary impact
on NHC scrip. But it costs the company no money

Xstrata offered to buy Gloucester Coal(GCL) for $375 million.
That failed T/O degenerated into the usual infantile slanging match.

Expect RSP to be the same. Also ,with the GCL-Xstrata bid
it shows they are very interested in small cap coal stocks.

I expect RSP to be $5.00 in two years time , when they ramp up to
8 million tonnes a year. So i dont want a T/O.

Another impediment to a full T/O is their major shareholders
such as Posco & others. These holders are not in RSP to make a quick dollar,
they are in RSP to try & control their own destiny , so to speak.
With some control over supplies & reserves.

If the bid flounders like (GCL) i still expect RSP to trade around the $2.30 mark.
But it will be a while before the mkt attributes future earnings to RSP until
they prove themselves
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 18 2007, 12:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: wintermute on Wednesday 17/10/07 09:34pm

i always have a quick browse of this thread,
this thread should be re-named "The Darth Vader thread"
because it is well & truly crossing over into the dark side.
enough horror penny dreadful stock picks to even make
hotcopper look lame by comparison.

CMO is a bit of clanger as well. Share price of 2 cents,means it
has to rise 1500% to get to 30cents. i cant see it myself.
the only way to achieve that rise is a 15:1 share consolidation.

CMO sells wholesale/retail airtime from Vodaphone.
tradingroom.com showing a $50 mill mkt cap
(might be more shares hidden away, but have not looked)
ebitda guidance of $6 mill for 2007/2008.
So nothing to excite the punters in my opinion.
maybe looking a $3mill to $3.5 mill NPAT. for 07/08
On a $50 mill mkt cap, this is pretty average.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

datum
Posted on: Oct 17 2007, 07:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: Mork on Tuesday 09/10/07 03:33pm

One day, in the long distant future BXP will probably be a good company.
As an example, Rebel Sport(REB) share price basically stayed at
60 cents for years on end.
Gerry Harvey then took over management control (50.1% stake)
for 80 cents per share in around 2001 from memory.
He sold out in the past year to a buyout/equity consortium for
$4.60 per share.

The same painful torturous path is what BXP is experiencing.
The s.p. will languish until current management is replaced with
competent management. Gerry Harvey should be tearing strips off
the current knuckleheads running the show.
If you want to learn how to turn a good business into a bad one,
just follow BXP.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 15 2007, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: peterstevens on Thursday 11/10/07 01:59pm

pete,
i always try & put d.y.o.r.(do your own research) at the
end of my posts. so i hope i didn't influence you to much.
As i said in an earlier post, other punters believe this is
the best stock since sliced bread.

I have also said on other threads, that its the bad stocks that go up the most,
so if your a gambler you could take a punt on CCY
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 12 2007, 10:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

Another telling indictment of what RHG is worth,
is the fact John Kinghorn jumped ship to the tune of $600 mill.
& his overall net worth probably puts him in the $1 billion club.

As a result he could buy back rams quite comfortably, well in excess
of the $140 mill being offered.
Since he wont touch RHG with a 10 foot barge pole shows what he
really thinks of the business.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 12 2007, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

i generally keep my mouth shut with these flea bitten
penny dreadfuls i own. Although i will admit it is backed
by some heavy hitters on the share register.

Along comes an announcement that makes my jaw hit the floor.
A $30 mill cap raising for a $ 60 mill company.

More front than Myers as my old granddad used to say.
They better come out with some very impressive announcements
after this massive handout they are getting.

I am thinking they might need the money to upgrade the
the company cars from Ferrari"s to a fleet of Bugatti Veyron"s.
Cant have our management team driving anything less.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 11 2007, 06:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

its always good to get differing views on a stock.
If other punters are bullish on CCY , that fine.
Just a bit of history on how i came across MSC.
About 6 years ago Fat Prophets Newsletter had a strong buy
around the 26 cents mark. (the old posts on MSC will show the sad history)

But for me, CCY is not worth the effort of even researching or considering,
because management have spent 10 years in a perpetually failing business.
so i just rule it out straight away.

Another thing is management expertise in a certain area.

They have been miners for the past 10 years (trying to export kaolin)
& now all of sudden they are experts in the Chinese corporate
& investment market. I doubt whether Vic Alexander can tie his own shoe laces properly,
& now all of sudden he"s starting up an mini-me version of Macquarie Bank.
I don't think he will be successful.

d.y.o.r.....datum
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 9 2007, 10:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: anne on Thursday 31/05/07 10:50pm

QUOTE
Faulty thinking 4. Thinking that others have to validate your great stock picks. It freaks me out when I find a great story and no-one on any of 5 forums has mentioned my stock recently.


greetings, Anne,
i have been mirroring your above thoughts for quite some time, but in a slightly different way. I have almost even considered starting a new thread topic on SS called...............

............................"Why Sharescene is irrelevant".............
But i dont think the moderators would like that too much, & its not just
SS thats irrelevant its the rest of them as well. I.E. hot copper , top stocks , etc.

For example,(from the FMG thread)
Posted Friday 16/03/07 10:54am
QUOTE
One of the best stories I have for the share market - Met an unassuming very nice gent at a TNG investor presentation in Brisbane recently who is top 20 for FMG (he was there with his broker). He bought FMG when it was a penny dreadful, and has no thoughts of selling his holding in the near future. He loves how FMG has delivered what they said they would, so far on time (although production target looks to be out now).
At today's price (around $20), his holding is worth $12m. Original investment $36k.
The holy grail of the share investor!

And, interestingly....he had never heard of hc or ss or any of the share chat sites.



Their are some supremely intelligent posters on SS. & to put it bluntly,
i have been mesmerised & seduced by their fabulous posts.
& i hold a few that have not done to well. This is just a observation ,
I hold myself fully responsible for my investing decisions.

FMG has been one the quietest threads on SS. its only gone from 10 cents to $50.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

datum
Posted on: Oct 9 2007, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://www.thesheet.com/nav?id=2663&no=5815992
here"s another view on the loan book.

zzedzz, i did not look at RHG"s accounts. But if youre right,
I.E. $140 mill in debt & taxes to pay, then RHG is worth less than zero

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rams’ tempting loan book
09 October 2007 6:46amThe trashing of the share price of Rams Home Loans Group last week was an understandable reaction to news on Tuesday, October 2, of the separation of the company – with the franchise and brand sold to Westpac and the residual listed entity left to earn whatever profits it can from a $14 billion loan book.

The announcement of the sale to Westpac, followed by market briefings by Westpac and Rams that day, still left most outsiders in the dark over the earnings prospects for the non-bank lender's stock.

From now Rams’ profits derive solely from management of this residual portfolio, equal to about 1.6 per cent of the Australian mortgage market.

To put that in context, that’s a home loan book equal to that of all building societies combined, and larger than the loan portfolios of Citibank, Bendigo Bank and Bank of Queensland.

The profit of any mortgage loan – once on the books – is a function of the life of the loan, the spread and fees.

Let’s start with the fees. The key fee to think about is the break fee (known inside banking circles as the “deferred establishment fee”). This is really part of the up-front origination cost incurred but not recovered and deferred until later in the life of the loan.

The reason these fees exist is mainly so banks can fib about the notional interest rate, more commonly known as the “comparison rate” – the calculation of which is dictated by law. Lenders keep this advertised rate low by having a hefty fee when someone refinances within five years (by which stage the profit from the interest spread should be worth the trouble the lender has taken).

In the case of Rams, these fees are in the order of two per cent. These fees are at the high end of the range, according to data compiled by InfoChoice.

The spread Rams might earn from managing its loan book is hard to estimate in the current market. Few investors are willing to buy asset-backed securities of any description in any corner of the global capital market just now, and the size, structure and pricing of Rams’ $300 million bond sold to eight investors a few days ago wasn’t too encouraging.

And while Rams is facing some problems refinancing the $6 billion worth of commercial paper with a February deadline, and several billion more now funded through bank warehouses, it's hard to conclude they are terminally unprofitable.

Credit markets will reopen, although slowly, and a market price will emerge for all lenders hoping to make use of the machinery of securitisation.

With a portfolio in “run off”, the Rams loans will, by definition, become highly seasoned and are likely to improve in quality.

The upshot is that, despite the pessimism, Rams management will refinance the loan and while investors today can only guess at the terms, the better hunch is that those terms will leave some profit on the table.

Then there’s the question of the life of the loans. There are some tricky issues here.

Rams has had to increase interest rates on low-doc loans and prime loans, with the rate rise in prime loans in line with actions of other lenders dependent on wholesale markets but out of line with major bank pricing for now.

There’s also a question mark over the extent to which brokers and, to a lesser extent Rams franchisees, will encourage borrowers to refinance (whether with Westpac or elsewhere).

Rams, as manager of the portfolio, will have every incentive to hinder attempts by customers to refinance and enforce contractual terms in whatever fashion maximises returns. If this proves to be the case, some customers may find Rams’ conduct annoying, but investors can expect the managers of this portfolio to take a hard-headed approach.

And if Rams doesn’t take a tough stance in managing the residuals, some other more natural owner of mortgage portfolios will step forward to do so. A financial institution or financial investor will, more than likely, emerge once the credit markets clear and take over the Rams portfolio.

That’s probably unlikely before the first quarter of 2008. It seems less likely that owners of the Rams residual assets would have to wait until 2009 for such an offer.

Rams is now trading about 50¢, which is only 11¢ more than the value, per share, of the cash that Rams will receive from Westpac. Estimates are floating around from investment banks of the pre-crisis value of the Rams residual of 50-something cents per share, stretching anywhere up to a dollar.

There are plenty of unknowns to keep the cautious out of Rams at these discounted prices.

For anyone who thinks Rams is more likely to hit a buck rather than have the company’s value expire altogether, now may be the time to buy.

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 8 2007, 11:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

QUOTE (thejadsta @ Monday 08/10/07 01:16pm)

thejadsta,
I doubt this will get a no vote. John Kinghorn saying they had no
choice but to except the offer, or go into receivership.
The minor retail shareholders will not have a say in it.
It will be the large shareholders & institutions that will decide.

RHG has a mkt cap of $148 mill at the moment.
You will get a $140 mill payment shortly ,
so the $15 bill loan book is valued at $8 million.

since i am not a banker , i basically have no idea what RHG will do with
the loan book. there is not point (RHG)hanging around waiting for your loan book to expire , then delisting the company. they might as well get it over with all together.

But flogging the low-doc loans to someone else might be a problem.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 8 2007, 06:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

In reply to: Mork on Monday 17/09/07 10:42am

QUOTE
Also BXP tell us that they made $3m from BOPO - assume that there were an average of 10,000 cards for the whole FY and that would be $300 profit per card. No way there making this per card so i think there fudging the figures somehow.


Mork, just had a good read of the annual report over the weekend.
Page 2 , goes to great lengths to highlight achievements thru the year.
Which includes a $3.078 mill profit for Bopo.
i agree with you, in the fact 10,000 cards cannot produce this profit.
I cant find anything in the report that explains this. The explanation might
very well be buried in the 65 pages of accounts. More than likely they
are hiding something from shareholders.
(which is very unusual for BXP management to do this lmaosmiley.gif )

Also the conv. note must have been well & truly issued.
Page 41 stating that it was issued on the 16 july 2007.
The ASX release to inform shareholders was on the 24 july 2007.

All in all, a stirling effort by management to hide things from shareholders,
the appendix 3b release (which no-one usually reads) in an attempt to hide an
$11.8 mill share issue. Hiding bopo card numbers from us ,
(because they are so pathetically low)
is another fabulous effort in corporate governance.

bravo ,chaps.

  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 5 2007, 10:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

On face value FDY looks like a tasty morsel.
But looks can be deceiving.
First of all as a general rule , most small caps trade below a 10 p/e. usually around 8 p/e.
With FDY, its not actually a small cap, but is in fact a tiny micro cap.
If you spent a bit of time looking at listed micro caps you would probably
find a lot trading around the 4/5/6 p/e ratio mark.

Now lets look at some of the results.............

Share Trading ....................817,235
Interest & Other Income..... 315,168
Total Income .................14,398,715
Total Expenses.................. (9,729,813)
Profit Before Income Tax....... 4,668,902
Income Tax Expense........... (1,422,972)
Net Profit after Tax.............. 3,245,930


Now, sharetrading , interest & other income amounted to $1,132,403
This , to me , is sheer profit (before tax) especially the share trading.
So if they have a bad share trading year this income will completely disappear.
As we all know , we are up to our armpits in a roaring bull market.
As a result broking houses are booming. any downturn will savage FDY"s income.

Citigroup (in the USA) recent qtrly report shows income dropped 60%.
From the result of sub-prime & a reduction of equity deals/corporate
buyouts being executed.

FDY will not be immune from a general downturn or reduction in ASX turnover.

Having said all that, i wish to point out i am a dumb mug punter &
FDY could turn into a 10 bagger overnight in this crazy market....d.y.o.r.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 4 2007, 11:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://www.towersystems.com.au/fhn_blog/ar...hone_recha.html

This is without doubt going to be a financial hammer blow to BXP.

Ezipass (as above link shows) is being run by a newsagent owner.
Its pretty obvious newsagent owners have had a gutful of BXP , to
go to the extent of setting up their own system.
The above link is a newsagent blogspot that i have linked to before when
newsagent owners were screaming blue murder about BXP ripping them
off with bopo training & charges.

Ezipass has Telstra & Virigin, but does not have optus & vodaphone. They are
confident of signing these providers.

Ezipass is a far superior system than BXP. No fees or contracts(i think BXP charges
very hefty franchise fees). also commission paid immediately rather than at the end of mth.

All in all , BXP are basically stuffed.
The only advantage BXP has is billpay. Now Billpay is processing maybe $2 billion per yr,
this would need to process $10 billion/yr to entice newsagents to stay.
Also newsagents only get 55cents per transaction for processing a bill.

I dont expect BXP to collapse in a heap, but over the next 2 years i would expect
Ezipass to capture ,maybe 25% of the newsagent mkt.

So BXP revenues would drop accordingly.

look out below
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 4 2007, 08:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

SOL moved from 44% to 46%
their is an ASX 'creep" provision that allows
a company to increase its holding by 3% over a given period of time
(after being above the standard 19.9% T/O threshold)
It is either every 6mths or every 12mth period(cant remember which one)

SOL are obviously using this ploy while the s.p. is at record lows
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 4 2007, 07:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

at casual glance this looks like some serious,serious, serious problems
for BXP. This is a direct attack on their core business.

i am going too have a read up on this & report my thoughts.
To me, its the equivalent of Holden dealers being fed up with GMH &
then start selling Fords from their showroom.
Bill Express Ltd. is in a hell of a lot of trouble.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 4 2007, 06:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

http://www.thesheet.com/nav?id=2653&no=5794152
I have always liked these journalists at the above website,
they sprinkle their articles with a good dose of sarcasm

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rams closes the discount era
04 October 2007
Local news was dominated by Tuesday's announcement that Westpac had signed an agreement with Rams Home Loans allowing Westpac to rip out the tastiest bits of the Rams carcass even before Rams had taken its final breath. Under the deal Rams management, franchisees and employees get to keep their jobs. Under the deal Rams shareholders are hung out to dry.

Assuming those shareholders ultimately approve, Westpac will take the Rams brand name and distribution network for $140 million, leaving the shell of the listed company holding its existing loans and liabilities. Westpac has merely suggested it would offer a helping hand on loan financing and the upcoming rollover of $1.4 billion of commercial paper. Rams will lose any prospect of future mortgage business.

Company founder John Kinghorn told the Australian Financial Review on Wednesday: “I wouldn’t even suggest it’s an excellent outcome for our shareholders, but it’s the absolute best we can do in the circumstances.”

Westpac CEO David Morgan suggested it was a win-win for both Rams and Westpac at a conference call, but no one could tell just what contorted facial expression he may have been wearing at the time. While $140m for 92 branches and a brand name is not absolute bargain basement, securities analysts agree it’s a sensational move for Westpac, allowing an overnight 10 per cent increase of its struggling retail distribution. Westpac will now sell a wider range of loans under the RAMS label, if the deal comes off.

And judging by the RAMS share price, the deal will come off. Last week Rams put on 20 per cent as credit conditions began to ease and the company announced the tender of $250 million in bonds. In the last two days the share price has fallen 50 per cent. That's a $2.50 IPO to 48c in two months. While in theory there could yet be another bidder emerging for the whole company, Rams shareholders are clearly not taking that chance.

The demise of Rams has positive overtones for the pillars, as Deutsche Bank noted. Not only does it remove a once pesky heel-snapper, it ensures the likely death of the discount lender in Australia.

Elsewhere in the financial sector, Macquarie Bank acquired Canada's Orion Financial while Babcock & Brown successfully put away its aircraft acquisition and leasing IPO, proving those two pariahs have no trouble at all finding finance.
  Forum: By Share Code

datum
Posted on: Oct 4 2007, 01:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 760

just ignore that rubbish. Thats online trading for you.
In the old days if you rang up your broker with an order,
lets say CBA was trading at $6.00 (15 years ago) & you asked your
broker to put in a buy order at 20 cents he would refuse the order.

But these days i could put in a buy order for BHP at 1 cent if i
liked.
Do not hold CCY & have no intention of buying. CCy has something
to do with MSC.
MSC has been the dog stock of the decade run by a
bunch of turkeys. they have been trying to export a paper industry
product called kaolin for the best part of 10 years.
  Forum: By Share Code

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