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PROPERTY
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 19 2018, 03:18 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 19 2018, 02:09 PM

Saxo Bank's Quarterly Outlook for Q1 2018
Saxo Bank's strategy team is out with their take on world markets for the first quarter of 2018.
QUOTE
CONTENTS:
HOW TO SPOT A BUBBLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE 3
BUBBLES: A TECHNICAL APPROACH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE 6
HOUSING BUBBLES ARE POPPING UP EVERYWHERE
… SO WHAT NOW? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE 8
EQUITIES: THE MOST IMPORTANT YEAR SINCE 2008 .. . . . . PAGE 12
FOREX: CURRENCIES EYE A BUBBLY 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE 17
COMMODITIES: INFLATION IN FOCUS
AS GOLD BULLS GATHER STRENGTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE 20
BONDS: DEEPWATER HORIZON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE 22
WILL THE CRYPTOCURRENCY
MANIA CONTINUE? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE 26

https://www.home.saxo/-/media/documents/qua...ook-q1_2018.pdf



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 19 2018, 02:09 PM
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The Dangerous Reality of Australia's Housing Market
https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/64914-stei...-m?type=bearish
Attached File(s)
Attached File  UfVZ5_ys.jpg ( 30.36K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
Mags
post Posted: Jan 15 2018, 09:34 AM
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I didn't see the piece, but have no doubt he's selling snake oil.

Let's see.... Who has a bank loan where it's no direct debit.........

Really? You get an invoice in 'the mail', and pay by a due date???? Lies, I suspect.

And at $55million, and 200 properties, that works out at 'equity' of $275k per property....... Sounds a lot, like a lot. I love these people and their 'net' positions. They never calculate a true 'net' position. How much CGT will be be up for??? How many early termination fees??? How much REA fees??? 200 X $20K = $4 million..... Ha, he will blow 10% of his 'net' position JUST on agent fees when he liquidates....

No doubt he's depreciated the living daylights out of his properties, which makes the CGT implications HUGE....

These days I don't know how I feel about it all.... I tried to save the world from stupid -ve gearing mistakes (it is a genuine strategy, but the money is made on the initial purchase, you can't buy in a bubble and expect to make money)... But no one want's to listen.

I always come back to asking how would packer (or other rich bloke) behave.... Imagine this conversation with the accountant:
Acct: Good and bad new sir
Packer: Bad first
Acct: We lost money on that new casino for the year
Packer: f'ing what...
Acct: now the good sir, you get a nice tax credit (fake smile)
Packer: someone's getting boned for this f up.......


Chasing a tax credit via loosing money, in the hope that a commodity will rise in value.... bloody dangerous.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  nipper  
 
triage
post Posted: Jan 14 2018, 07:18 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 14 2018, 05:30 PM

Skase, Tinkler, if not Birch then someone using a similar rationale about debt ... for each bubble there is a shooting star ...

This is a useful update of things to do with the property market in Oz (not the slickest presentation but who cares).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyZzbRzxVBE

(hat tip: desmodromic at macrobusiness)



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  Mags  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 14 2018, 05:30 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 8 2018, 01:17 PM

On some (dubious) TV program tonight, (Sunday Night), some clown espousing the miracle of compounding, as applied to property. ....until the tide goes out. The 'identity' claims 200 properties and net worth of $55mill; I suspect less. Recently defaulting, he came up with this: ...
"Birch said the AFR story was “currently with the lawyers for misrepresentation”. “To confirm, I never got sued, the property never got repossessed, and the situation was that I had an overdue amount which equalled to one month’s interest which was paid immediately as soon as it came to my attention,” he said. “Having 200-odd properties, the admin side of things can become a bit too much and not seeing the mail on time meant I had no idea of this.”

pretty sure how this will end up



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  Mags  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 8 2018, 02:20 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jan 8 2018, 02:04 PM

Yeah, CnP from the Fin Review. Doing on my phone, I missed the window to drop in the source (usually there, but not this time). Poor little possums.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.afr.com...20180105-h0e7w1



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  Mags  
 


triage
post Posted: Jan 8 2018, 02:04 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 8 2018, 01:17 PM

nip - just out of interest (so to speak) did you copy and paste that quote or did you have to type it in yourself?

In an article that appears to be describing a group that may have urged thousands of people to leap into the financial unknown I would have thought there would be no room for the word "principle". If they are talking about paying back a loan then I think the word they should have used was "principal". wink.gif (but yeah always lots of typos from me when I cannot copy and paste).

If there are indeed 20k "investors" impacted from the one scheme it is big enough to warrant the government arranging a bail-out (because you know they were only being prudent in leveraging their life savings into a financial bubble...).



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 8 2018, 01:17 PM
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QUOTE
founder of one of the country's biggest property investment clubs says its 20,000 investors can't afford their mortgage repayments after the banks shifted them from interest-only loans to principle-and-interest mortgages earlier than they expected.

"How would you manage if your bank told you you had to pay 45 per cent more per month on your mortgage?" Kevin Young, founder of Queensland's Property Club (previously called The Investors Club) told The Australian Financial Review.
... five letters, starting with P. ... a scheme, a delusion



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 30 2017, 03:26 PM
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Well, that's a bit of a giggle ------ the banner ad above is for
QUOTE
WATERFRONT (big font) Footscray (small font) - .... Absolute waterfront location 4km from Melbourne's CBD
- HALF THE PRICE of Sydney

yeah, right. Maribyrnong River VS Sydney Harbour !!



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Mags
post Posted: Nov 9 2017, 08:38 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Nov 9 2017, 08:20 AM

Correct re: China capital flow and property prices.

One only has to look at local credit growth figures. All are in the toilet, except mortgage debt, and that is growing way, way, way slower than the 10/15/20% pa. price growth rates in Syd/Melb.

Don't believe the hype that things are all ok in Australia, things are dire, but it's a market, and the prices are set by the fringes ie. a few transactions are used as a 'reading' of the health of the system.... Dig below that...ouch.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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