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MTR, MANTRA GROUP
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 12 2017, 12:19 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 10 2017, 11:39 AM

Board recommends AccorHotels deal.

Short positions have increase in the last 3 days - https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=MTR
Wed 11th Oct, 2017 2,011,398 297,428,917 0.67% 8,735,044 23.03%
Tue 10th Oct, 2017 2,204,553 297,428,917 0.74% 11,777,000 18.72%
Mon 9th Oct, 2017 2,834,178 297,428,917 0.95% 9,565,594 29.63%

QUOTE
MANTRA GROUP’S BOARD UNANIMOUSLY RECOMMENDS SCHEME OF
ARRANGEMENT WITH ACCORHOTELS
The Board of Directors of Mantra Group Limited (Mantra or the Company) (ASX:MTR) is
pleased to announce that it has entered into a binding agreement with Accor S.A.
(AccorHotels) whereby AccorHotels will acquire all of the shares of Mantra at a price of
A$3.961 cash per share (on a fully diluted basis), including a potential special dividend, by way
of a scheme of arrangement (Scheme). A Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA) has been
signed to give effect to this Transaction.

Under the terms of the Scheme, Mantra shareholders will be entitled to receive A$3.96 cash
per share (Cash Consideration) subject to all applicable conditions being satisfied or waived
and the Scheme being implemented. The Cash Consideration represents an implied market
capitalisation of A$1,182.2 million and an implied enterprise value of A$1,254.6 million for the
year ended 30 June 2017, on a fully diluted basis.

In addition, Mantra will have the discretion to pay shareholders a special dividend of up to a
maximum of 23.5 cents per share (Special Dividend) which will be deducted from the A$3.96
headline value. The size of any potential special dividend (if declared) will be determined by
the Mantra Board having regard to a range of factors, including the availability of franking
credits.

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 10 2017, 11:39 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 9 2017, 06:51 PM

QUOTE
Analysts at Citi Research and Deutsche Bank have downplayed the likelihood of a rival bid for Mantra Group because of its less attractive and "lower quality" operating model.

Mantra shares soared 16 per cent yesterday after the company said it had granted French hotel giant Accor due diligence on the back of a $3.96-a-share offer to acquire the country's second biggest hotel and resort operator.

In a note, Macquarie Research suggested that global rivals including Marriott, IHG, Choice and TFE Hotels could be interested in acquiring the country's second biggest hotel and resort operator given the attractiveness of the Australian market.

But Citi Research Equities analyst Sam Teeger said he did not see a high probability of a competing bid:

"While we have previously written about the potential for increased demand from Asian hotel owners and operators for Australian hotel assets, we believe Mantra's management letting rights (MLR) operating structure reduces the attractiveness for competing bidders," Mr Teeger said.

A note from Deutsche Bank's Stuart McLachlan also poured cold water on the likelihood of better offers, noting that while the bid from Accor implied an enterprise value to earnings (EBITDA) multiple of 11.2, a 20 per cent discount to Mantra's listed peers, this "discount is appropriate in our view given Mantra's lower quality business model".

"This reflects its heavy weighting to MLR which possess greater economic sensitivity in challenging times," Mr McLachlan said.

While he did not rule out a competing bid, Mr McLachlan said Accor was "uniquely positioned amongst the hotel majors to manage Mantra's properties given its experience with MLRs, particularly post its acquisition of Mirvac Hotels in 2011".

Mantra shares were up another 1.5 per cent on Tuesday.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets-...009-gyxjk1.html
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 9 2017, 06:51 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2017, 01:34 PM

- another vote from the big hitters that disruption - in this case, Airbnb - isn't all what it's cracked up to be?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2017, 01:34 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 7 2017, 12:50 AM

Has confirmed receipt of offer - SP up 17.34% on the news @ $3.79

QUOTE
Response to press speculation
We refer to recent press speculation regarding Mantra Group Limited (ASX:MTR) ("Mantra").
Mantra confirms it has received an indicative and non-binding proposal from Accor S.A. ("Accor") in
relation to a potential control transaction (“Proposal”), to be implemented by way of a Mantra scheme
of arrangement, at $3.96 cash per share (on a fully diluted basis), being $4.02 per share less the final
FY17 dividend that has already been paid, and including a potential special dividend. Mantra has
granted Accor access to due diligence to determine if a transaction can be agreed and recommended
unanimously by the Mantra Board.

The discussions are incomplete and any entry by the parties into binding transaction documents
remains subject to a number of conditions, including (without limitation) the approval of both the Mantra
and Accor Boards and agreement on documentation. If any Proposal is agreed, the Proposal will be
subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions to be determined. There is no certainty that an
agreement will be reached or that the Proposal will be implemented.

Mantra will keep investors informed in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations.
At this stage shareholders do not need to take any action in relation to the Proposal.

Mantra has retained Highbury Partnership as financial adviser and Baker McKenzie as legal adviser to
assist it in responding to the Proposal

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 7 2017, 12:50 AM
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Investors could not get enough of the accommodation group when it listed on the ASX in June 2014 through a $239-million initial public offering. Its $1.80 issued shares rallied to $5 in early 2016 before slumping to a low of $2.58 this year.
QUOTE
Opinions are divided on Mantra's fall. Some analysts say the stock ran too far after its float and was overvalued. Others say the threat of accommodation disrupter Airbnb is weighing on Mantra as more travellers rent rooms in private houses rather than stay in hotels.

Fat Prophets CEO Angus Geddes believes Airbnb's threat to Mantra is exaggerated. "I can't see business travellers, tourist groups or young families, in large numbers, bypassing serviced apartments to stay in a stranger's spare bedroom or vacant apartment. Airbnb's effect on Mantra will not be nearly as large as the market expects," he says.

"Strong growth in international tourism in Australia, a tailwind for Mantra, shows no signs of abating. It will more than make up for any loss of market share to Airbnb.

certain popular destinations seem to have a Mantra on every block



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 17 2017, 04:59 PM
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according to Baillieu Holst analyst Nick Caley, the hotel industry offers the "purest leverage to the boom in domestic tourism" putting Mantra at the top of the pile.
QUOTE
Caley rates Mantra Group as a 'buy' with a price target of $4.05. Shares hit a calendar year peak of $3.14 earlier in July, but have traded as low as $2.59. The stock closed Friday at $3.02, up 4¢.

"We continue to view Mantra as a strong play on the current tourism boom in Australia with a low capital intensive model. Whilst some parts of the business market remain subdued, the language now appears to be turning to the next up-cycle with Mantra scheduled to add capacity in Brisbane and Perth," Caley says ... "Our view is that whilst flat spots remain in the same cities as 1H17 [Brisbane and Perth] Mantra should attain FY17 guidance," "However, given reports of softness in 2H17 on the Gold Coast [post the Dreamworld accident and rainfall] we now expect FY17 earnings to be at the lower end of guidance."

More positively, Caley notes that Mantra presentations suggest at least 21 new properties are in the pipeline, which will add about 4000 rooms to its portfolio over the next three years.


QUOTE
Citi analyst Sam Teeger also rates Mantra a 'buy' (though with a lower price target of $3.27) and believes the stock has been as oversold, given it continous to trade at a discount to its international hotel peers, while having double the EPS growth.

"In our view, the current share price more than reflects our medium-term concerns around its acquisition strategy, supply risk and the sharing economy,"

Previously, Citi warned Airbnb could reduce Mantra's pricing power, "especially during periods of peak demand", and there was the potential for the loss of management letting rights if leisure property owners decided to list properties on Airbnb instead of letting out to Mantra. Mr Teeger expanded the threat posed by Airbnb to its corporate business, which he said would "intensify over the medium term" as Airbnb expands into the corporate accommodation sector.

Operating under three brands - Mantra, Peppers and Breakfree – the group manages a national east coast-centric portfolio of nearly 130 hotels and resorts with 21,500 rooms as well as properties in New Zealand, Bali and Hawaii.

As with many hotel groups, Mantra operates an asset-light model preferring management agreements, leases and management letting rights to ownership of assets.

Mantra has a lack of marketing clout relative to the likes of global giants Marriott, Accor, Choice, Wyndham and IHG, which can leverage their enormous loyalty programs to channel more direct bookings.

CEO Bob East told an investor conference in May that it had signed up 100,000 of the 1 million guests on its database to its Mantra+ loyalty program. The company also recently launched its dedicated booking website Mantrahotels.com to take on the powerful OTAs and win more direct bookings.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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nipper
post Posted: Jul 17 2017, 08:32 AM
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QUOTE
The release of the latest international visitor data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics last week highlighted again the strength of our Asian-led tourism boom. Overseas visitor numbers rose 9.8 per cent in the year to May (seasonally adjusted) to reach a record 8.5 million visitors and Chinese arrivals were up 8.2 per cent to now be almost level-pegging with New Zealand as our biggest inbound market.

Visitor numbers also rose strongly from India, Malaysia, Hong Kong and the USA, as the lower Australian dollar and our global reputation as a safe and interesting place to visit pulled in the crowds.

As a result, Sydney and Melbourne hotel occupancies are at record highs, many resorts are filling up, dozens of new hotels are in the pipeline or under construction and much of the tired old hotel stock is being refurbished
.







QUOTE
Tourism, in the words of AccorHotels Pacific boss Simon McGrath, who runs the nation's biggest hotel portfolio, has become a "tier one" sector of the economy as mining and manufacturing have retreated. Evidence of this is clear: investors are pouring billions of dollars into new Australian hotels with hotel research firm STR counting over 28,000 hotel rooms currently in the development pipeline including new Shangri-La, Mandarin Oriental and Ritz-Carlton hotels.

Austrade forecasts overnight tourism spend to reach $127 billion by 2019-20 up from $97 billion in 2015-16 with Chinese visitors set to contribute 60 per cent of tourism expenditure growth over the next decade and hotel analysts Dransfield forecast hotel returns (revenue per available room or revPAR) to accelerate from 2.6 per cent in FY17 to 4.4 per cent between FY17 and FY25.

"Obviously you don't want supply to grow too quickly because that can depress room rates and occupancy," Olivier Coloun, investment analyst, at fund manager BT. told Reuters recently. "All the same, most in the industry say the China-led boom has a long way to run."



and I'd add Sealink SLK



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
arty
post Posted: Jan 25 2017, 10:28 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 25 2017, 10:15 AM

Looks like my "translation" of the broker's assessment (see "English as she is spoke") isn't far off the mark tongue.gif

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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 25 2017, 10:15 AM
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Mantra back on the boards in June 2014. After more than doubling to $5.00 by 2015, it has retraced to well under $3, and heading down.

With Peppers, Mantra and Breakfree brands, and while they state •Mantra Group relies predominantly on market sources that are not as relevant to the Airbnb platform i.e. business travel, groups, international, airline crews, government, conference, incentive and corporate, it would hard to believe the discretionary premium dollar has not walked away.

They claim a strong balance sheet, I suspect somewhat less than so. Constant draw on capital.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mrmiyagi
post Posted: Mar 9 2006, 10:23 AM
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In reply to: silex on Thursday 09/03/06 10:14am

Based on current ACL price that values the MTR share at 13.6 cts.

And ACL seems to have moved up as well. Perhaps ACL investors have not clicked yet as was MTR investors for about 30mins after the announcement was made on ASX. Perhaps ACL Sp will go up even more and therefore move the MTR price along as well.


 
 


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