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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Oct 5 2020, 09:23 AM
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Week Ahead: October will be Anything but Normal

As if things couldn’t get more bizarre in 2020, US President Trump and his wife have tested positive for the coronavirus, only weeks ahead of the November 3rd US election. Traders will be monitoring the situation to see how it will affect the campaigning. This comes ahead of the Vice-Presidential debate on Tuesday, which now may be the most anticipated Vice-Presidential debate EVER! After a relatively quiet week of negotiations regarding Brexit, UK’s Johnson and EU’s von der Leyen will hold high level talks this weekend, with hopes of breaking through stalemates. The coronavirus is continuing to pick up steam and it seems to be stalling the economic rebound in many countries. In addition, US House leader Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin continue talks to try and push through another fiscal stimulus package before the election.

brings forward the anticipation of the Vice-Presidential debate to be held on Tuesday. As neither of the Presidential candidates are getting any younger, with Trump at age 74 and Biden at age 78, one of these two Vice-Presidential candidates may have to step into role of President over the next 4 years if the sitting President cannot perform his duties as Commander-in-Chief. Trump’s coronavirus reminds us the even the most protected people in the world are susceptible to illness. Usually the Vice-Presidential debate is a non-event. However, the world will be watching Tuesday night with more interest than usual.


Last week’s economic data showed that the rebound in economic activity is slowing. US Non-Farm Payrolls showed that only 663,000 jobs were created in September, down from 1,489,000 in August. In addition, countries around the world are showing upticks in coronavirus cases and slowing in manufacturing, consumer activity, and jobs. For example, Australia’s retail sales print was -4% for August, showing that the local lockdowns have hurt. The RBA meets this week to discuss interest rates and stimulus. The central bank said at their last meeting that Australia is in recovery mode, however the road will be bumpy. Watch the statement this week for the RBA to set the table for more QE and stimulus at the November meeting. Other central banks also noted last week the potential for more stimulus, such as the BOJ, ECB, and the BOE.

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get our head around it people!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Oct 2 2020, 08:40 AM
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https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/news/house-...ree/ar-BB19CsAe


House Democrats discuss tougher antitrust law, some Republicans agree


The antitrust subcommittee, chaired by Representative David Cicilline, is expected to release a much-anticipated report into the four big tech companies -- Amazon.com Inc , Facebook Inc , Apple and Alphabet's Google -- as soon as Monday.
In the hearing, Cicilline said the tech companies used strategies such as self-preferencing and predatory pricing to grow. "These once-scrappy, underdog startups have grown into the kinds of monopolies we last saw more than a century ago," he said.

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not good to Ndaq100, ----then it might drag down the market as whole??? unsure.gif

i remember they use to kept stick on Bill Gates MSFT for a long while before!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 28 2020, 10:34 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/28/tiktok-ban-...pp-stores-.html

Judge blocks Trump administration’s ban on new TikTok downloads from US app stores

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the news might have some short term boost for market, not sure how long it will last??? unsure.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 25 2020, 04:19 PM
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On Tuesday this week, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Guy Debelle, gave a speech which probably opens the door to a rate cut on 6 October.

There is talk of a series of measures which will show the RBA resolve to stimulate the economy.

https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2020/sp-dg-2020-09-22.html

Then came Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg.

https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/s...kstart-economy/

As the Treasurer says, the flow of credit is the lifeblood of the Australian economy and the government has announced it will simplify lending rules to free up credit.

The prospect of a very significant increase in corporate insolvencies next year, particularly amongst small businesses must be scaring the pants off policy makers. They have decided it is time to do everything they can to protect the economy and jobs.






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 25 2020, 09:35 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 25 2020, 06:41 AM

i had similar thoughts with you of last night's market action.
sellers will be back next week.
will look at those technical levels though. like SPX for 3280ish
asx200 for 5925ish

if above level been hit through than bulls will have go again, other wise , down she goes !!!



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 25 2020, 06:41 AM
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So the correction was short lived.
Silver up, gold up, AUD own, DOW slightly up.
Don't think this is the end of it, expect further selling next week.
But then I could be completely wrong - again.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 09:23 AM
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wanted to point out our US Strategist, Ed Clissolds note from last night (Rotation? Correction? Neither? Both?). We draw 3 conclusions from the current market action:

The market is approaching short-term oversold levels, but sentiment and seasonals suggest it could remain defensive over the short term.
Cycles and longer-term breadth indicators suggest September weakness is more likely a bull correction than a cyclical bear.
Rotation has been underway selectively, but mega-cap Growth and Financials have been masking it


A couple of points expanding on what we see short term:

The pullback has been orderly, which is not how declines typically end. The percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving averages has fallen to 19.1%. Historically, oversold readings have come when the percentage falls below 7.7% and then reverses above it (see S242 shown below)
Looking at our daily trading sentiment composite, since 2018, declines have driven the sentiment composite into the low-to-mid 20s, except for bigger drops in December 2018 and March 2020. Additional pessimism may be needed to wash out the bulls after a powerful five-month rally (the low we saw recently was 34)
On September 9, we showed that the equity put/call ratio fell to a 20-year low (S583). The smoothed equity P/C ratio has climbed from 43.8 to 53.8. It remains 10 points below its long-term average; however, suggesting that the extreme option optimism has not been reversed.

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had some stats with the analysis , that is one of the thoughts, seems rotation become popular words these days.

 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 08:34 AM
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Silver crunched again, now down 26% from its recent highs.
Gold is proving more resilient, still holding above the 2600 handle in AUD.
Would like to see it revisit that 2200 mark before I started loading up again.
DOW down 500 + points, cash has gone past the regal status to Emperor.
Can't be good for the ASX today.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 23 2020, 10:04 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 23 2020, 09:51 AM

If at the same time, all these experts published stats on what they got wight, what they got wrong, and what was neutral, I might give them some weight.
Their research teams may do lots of research and analysis, but its what they read from the research and analysis, then what they recommend , is what really counts.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 23 2020, 09:51 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 23 2020, 09:39 AM

they doing it for living.

i'm little disappointed , because they didn't recommend TLS as value stock,

they do have their research term and mathds , but still just a opinion .



 
 


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