Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

696 Pages (Click to Jump) V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 20 2019, 07:48 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,411
Thanks: 2080



China's looming great wall of debt may have 'major global implications'
By Tasha Wibawa
Posted earlier today at 5:49am
QUOTE
While many countries struggled following the 2008 global financial crisis, China appeared as though it had largely escaped unscathed.
But observers are becoming increasingly concerned Beijing will struggle to repay an ever-increasing mountain of debt, with potential detrimental consequences for the global market.
Key points:
China's rising levels of debt mostly attributed to a "credit boom" post GFC
Many large infrastructures are struggling to generate positive revenue
Chinese local government debt has been called an "iceberg" with "titanic risks"

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-20/chin...ection=business

China set to post slowest growth in 28 years in 2018, more stimulus seen
QUOTE
China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-ec...n-idUSKCN1PE02Z



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 20 2019, 03:02 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,211
Thanks: 1920


Australian share market is set for a solid gain at the open after reports the US and China are prepared to make concessions in trade talks pushed global markets higher.

The futures market predicts the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 will climb 43 points, or 0.7 per cent, when trade resumes on Monday.

"We'll share in the rally (and) it's all because of the optimism over the US-China trade talk - it looks like progress," CommSec chief economist Craig James told AAP on Sunday.

Oil is up, too, as OPEC trims production



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 19 2019, 01:47 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,411
Thanks: 2080


China Offers a Path to Eliminate U.S. Trade Imbalance, Sources Say
Bloomberg News
January 19, 2019, 2:19 AM GMT+11 Updated on January 19, 2019, 5:47 AM GMT+11
QUOTE
Buying spree offer was made at Beijing talks in early January
U.S. officials said to be skeptical, want gap closed sooner

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...trade-imbalance?



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
plastic
post Posted: Jan 18 2019, 05:12 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 8,676
Thanks: 279


For some reason nobody wants to mention a bank bail in. Time to get your money out of the banks. If I were a squillionaire I'd be buying bank and government bonds.

Like a truck and trailer, house prices and banks' capital needs follow each other. Watch out when the margin called gets called.




https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=12191958

QUOTE
UBS weighs in on Reserve Bank rules, says mortgage rates could soar





https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=12191958

QUOTE
Australian house prices drop expected to be worst in the world







--------------------
What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 17 2019, 08:34 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,211
Thanks: 1920


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 16 2019, 08:45 AM

Brit PM, Theresa May, survived no-confidence motion ... but only just. 325 to 309 .... clearing the way for her to try and cobble together a revamped Brexit deal.

Some of the options outlined here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-15/brex...s-lost/10716002
No longer facing an election:
- Parliament could reconsider the plan
- So what about a people's vote?
- Could Brexit even be delayed or cancelled?
-??

What a mess



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 16 2019, 08:45 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,283
Thanks: 1295


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/theresa-may...ppens-next.html

what a mess!!! dry.gif



 


blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 14 2019, 08:22 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,411
Thanks: 2080


Stocks Fall as China Data Sours, Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap
By Eddie van der Walt
January 14, 2019, 8:43 AM GMT+11 Updated on January 14, 2019, 8:30 PM GMT+11
Dollar edges lower, pound declines before Brexit vote
Oil retreats; emerging market currencies, shares dip
QUOTE
These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 Index declined 0.7 percent as of 9:19 a.m. London time, the first retreat in more than a week.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5 percent, the first retreat in a week and the biggest fall in more than a week.
The MSCI All-Country World Index decreased 0.2 percent, the first retreat in more than a week.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 0.9 percent, the biggest dip in more than a week.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1 percent.
The euro climbed less than 0.05 percent to $1.1473.
The Japanese yen jumped 0.3 percent to 108.14 per dollar, the strongest in more than a week.
The British pound declined 0.1 percent to $1.2831.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.2 percent.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped two basis points to 2.68 percent, the lowest in more than a week.
Germany’s 10-year yield decreased two basis points to 0.22 percent, the lowest in a week.
Britain’s 10-year yield decreased three basis points to 1.263 percent, the biggest tumble in more than a week.
The spread of Italy’s 10-year bonds over Germany’s rose five basis points to 2.6641 percentage points.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed less than 0.05 percent.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9 percent to $51.13 a barrel.
LME copper fell 0.8 percent to $5,892.50 per metric ton, the lowest in more than a week on the biggest fall in more than a week.
Gold increased 0.3 percent to $1,293.77 an ounce, the highest in more than a week.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 11 2019, 09:35 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,283
Thanks: 1295


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 11 2019, 08:50 AM

Christopher Condon
Updated 11 Jan 2019 — 5:55 AM,
first published at 5:52 AM

Save

Share
Washington | Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank can be patient before adjusting interest rates again as it waits to see how global risks impact the domestic economy.

"We're in a place where we can be patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve, and I think for the meantime we're waiting and watching," Powell said in a question-and-answer session Thursday (Friday AEDT) at the Economic Club of Washington, DC. "You should anticipate that we're going to be patient and watching, and waiting and seeing."

US stocks turned lower after Powell said the central bank is sticking with its process of shrinking its balance sheet to a more normal level, which removes stimulus put into place to revive the economy following the financial crisis and recession a decade ago.


The balance sheet "will be substantially smaller than it is now", though bigger than it was before the crisis, Powell said. He said he didn't know the exact level. Bloomberg

The balance sheet "will be substantially smaller than it is now", though bigger than it was before the crisis, Powell said. He said he didn't know the exact level.

US central bankers are refining their message after the hawkish tone of their December 19 statement and forecasts for further rate hikes in 2019 roiled financial markets. The Fed's communications - and a Bloomberg News report that President Donald Trump had discussed firing Powell - helping bring on the worst December for stocks since the Great Depression.

Since the meeting, Fed officials have indicated they're less inclined to keep raising than their statement and projections for two hikes in 2019 had suggested.

Powell said last week that he's "listening sensitively to the message that markets are sending" about downside risks.

Minutes of the December meeting released on Wednesday showed that many officials felt the central bank "could afford to be patient about further policy firming", indicating the Fed could place interest rates on hold through March or longer as it waits for clarity on risks to global growth that could affect the US economy.

The more flexible approach, apparent in the minutes and in recent speeches, has supported stock prices. Bloomberg's financial conditions index has retraced much of its December tightening.

On Thursday, Powell said he hasn't seen anything to indicate that the risk of a recession is elevated. The partial government shutdown is unlikely to leave a mark on the economy in the short term, though the Fed will have a less clear picture of growth without data from the Commerce Department, which releases figures including retail sales and gross domestic product.

At the same time, Powell acknowledged that financial markets are expressing concern about risks. The principal worry is global growth, he said in questioning by David Rubenstein, the co-founder of private-equity firm Carlyle Group, where Powell was previously a partner. Rubenstein also hosts an interview show on Bloomberg Television.

Powell also said he didn't think it would be appropriate to reject an invitation to meet with Trump, but he hasn't yet received such an invitation. Fed chairs have met with presidents in the past, he added.

Fed policy makers projected above-trend economic growth for this year in their December forecasts, and they expect the unemployment rate to fall further. Those forecasts appear supported by a robust December labour-market report, which showed the economy added 312,000 non-farm jobs, the most in 10 months. The unemployment rate stands at 3.9 per cent and central bankers expect it to average 3.5 per cent in the final three months of this year.

Even so, US central bankers face a challenging year that's complicating their communication. Financial markets are incorporating a variety of risks to the outlook, ranging from slowing global growth to the potential for a protracted trade war with China.
==========================

FED seems on their target to shrink their balance sheet............. not what Trump like them to do....... cool.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 11 2019, 08:50 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,211
Thanks: 1920


likely 5th day in a row up

SPI futures up 14 points or 0.2% at about 8.10am AEDT
AUD +0.2% to 71.84 US cents (Overnight peak: 71.98)
On Wall St near 4pm: Dow +0.5% S&P 500 +0.5% Nasdaq +0.4%
In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.2% FTSE +0.5% CAC -0.2% DAX +0.3%
Spot gold -0.4% to $US1288.71 an ounce at 12.44pm New York time
Brent crude -0.1% to $US61.39 a barrel
US oil -0.1% to $US52.30 a barrel
Iron ore -0.7% to $US73.36 a tonne



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 2 2019, 09:01 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,411
Thanks: 2080


Could be another bad day tomorrow on our market
U.S. Stock Futures Plunge as China Data Fuel Growth Concerns
By Matthew Burgess
2 January 2019, 10:09 GMT+11 Updated on 2 January 2019, 19:35 GMT+11
QUOTE
S&P 500 Index futures reverse gain, dropping more than 1%
Caixin China December manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ing-day-of-2019

Hedgeye's - Happy 2019
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Dv0uHQJWoAE2_sl.jpg ( 80.05K ) Number of downloads: 2

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


696 Pages (Click to Jump) V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING