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mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

IGO hit a 52 week high today. Nickel Demand driving it.
Looking for a bit of breather soon.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
.... how rising industrial demand has stoked a potential revival of the price of silver, which is currently reaching its 10-year low


It seems to have been largely forgotten that Silver, although often viewed as purely precious metal, is also an industrial commodity.
Unlike Gold, which is largely a storage of value, silver gets consumed.
Most people will have associated silver with photography, which with the advent of the digital age, has declined rapidly.
However, it is widely used in electronics, being a good conductor of both electricity and heat, cheaper than gold.
It is used in cars to make rear demister heaters, high current switches and in the etching of printed circuit boards.
One of the fastest growing uses is in the production of photovoltaic cells used in electricity generation.
It is of particular use in the medical field. Being acutely resistance to bacteria, its used in coating med equipment, in silver infused wound dressings etc.
Your top of the line industrial dish washer is likely to be silver lined.
So what this means is that over time, silver gets consumed.
Yes some of it is recovered and recycled, but nowhere near as often as it used to in the film industry.
And to top it off, overnight silver powered through the 16 handle on its way to 17.
Ya hoo!!

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 18 2019, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

SVL up 20% today.
Took half off the table.
Too good a profit to pass up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 18 2019, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Gold back on the upward march.
The paper derivative players have been beaten in this round.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 18 2019, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

The gold to Silver ratio is a bit like the oil to gold ratio.
It has wavered between highs and lows over time, but like the oil,gold ratio is an artificial construct that has no intrinsic validity.
The relationship is purely mathematical.
However, it has still been a good period for Silver. Nudging 16 at the moment.
I expect it to go higher, but may have a breather first.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 12 2019, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Pretty ordinary performance.
Cmon the kiwis!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 11 2019, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Someone/something having another go.
Up 20% today.
Already had a please explain from headmaster, likely to get another one.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 11 2019, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Half ofme wishes the poms beat us in the semi and then the kiwis knock em off in the final.
Then both countries would have lots to celebrate.
India replacing the saffers as chokers.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 10 2019, 06:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, while interest rates are at spectacular lows, those self funded retirees are pretty much forced out of cash and into something else, the sharemarket is one such beast.
Property is quite illiquid, shares are (mostly) not.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 8 2019, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Perhaps mrs stark could join as well.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

S32 is one of "four beaten up stocks" that NAB share trade group see as recovery stocks.


QUOTE
Market capitalisation: $15.9 billion
12-month total return: –6.8%
FY20 projected yield: 4.4%, fully franked
Analysts’ consensus price target: $3.84 (Thomson Reuters), $3.75 (FN Arena)
South 32 was spun out of BHP in 2015 as a result of the parent company deciding to focus on its four commodity “pillars” of iron ore, oil, copper, and coal. The commodities outside this core portfolio (mainly aluminium, manganese, nickel, silver and lead) were spun off into South32, which generates about two-thirds of its earnings from aluminium (including alumina) and manganese. South 32 is also involved in coking (steelmaking) coal in Australia (Illawarra) and thermal (electricity) coal in South Africa, but the latter business is up for sale.

Being a diversified miner, it is rare that all commodities in the portfolio are going well, and the March quarterly production report disappointed: S32 cut FY19 production guidance by 4-5% for alumina and 6% for thermal coal. On the plus side, the manganese assets are performing strongly – and the company’s silver exposure is also punching above its weight.

Analysts expect S32 to show earnings per share (EPS) falls in FY19 and FY20 (the company reports in US$), but the fall from above $4.20 in October to current levels around $3.20 has opened up value that retail investors appear to be picking up on, with the added attraction of a prospective dividend yield in the range of 4.4%–4.6%, fully franked.


It is a producer, it sells stuff, and may even make a profit.
It has a yield three times what the bank is offering on deposits.
I am in, based mainly on its silver potential.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

There are plenty of producers of silver, but of them have it as a byproduct from other minerals.
The likes of glencore, BHP and South32 are all producers, but the silver part is dwarfed by Iron ore, and other metals that they mine.
Hence, there is unlikley to much leverage.
South 32 own the cannington mine, which is the biggest silver mine in OZ.
New century mines is reopening theold Century mine, but I suspect mainly for the Zinc.
IGO and SLR (both of which I hold) also produce silver as a byproduct.
Of those not yet producing,
SVL (which I hold), is one that is a pure silver explorer and has one of the larger undeveloped deposits in OZ.
Others such as ARD, IVR , MRP and PNX all have undeveloped mines or mineral assets that they are exploring.
There is also the silver ETF, ETPMAG listed on the ASX.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Not everything about the OZ economy is all bad.

Australia is still producing trade supluses ( orshould that be surpli).

AUSTRALIAN
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), it surged to $4.8 billion after seasonal adjustments, coming in well ahead of the $3.7 billion level expected by economists.

January’s surplus — previously reported at $4.55 billion — was revised down slightly to show a smaller surplus of $4.35 billion.
From early 2014 thru to late 2016 the trade balance was in deficit.
Since then, there has only been two months in which it went negative.


QUOTE
Surging commodity prices and a weaker Australian dollar helped to lift Australia’s trade surplus to a record $5.745 billion in May, bringing closer the country’s first current account surplus since the 1970s.

The May result compared with a surplus of $4.820 billion in April, and was driven by a 13 per cent rise in prices of commodities such as iron ore, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. The value of exports rose by 4 per cent, while imports rose by 1 per cent.

Prices for Australia’s biggest exports have surged over recent months, with iron ore trading at its highest levels in 5 years as a result of global supply disruptions.


The Australian dollar has also declined this year as the Reserve Bank of Australia moved to cut official interest rates for the first time since 2016.


Exports fell, mainly due to the fall in gold exports, but Given that imports fell even more, JP Morgan describes the Australian economy as " Unequivocally weak"
As the exports are smaller, the trade surplus is not likely to increase GP for the June quarter.
Some people are so hard to please.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

We will be the ones in the ranger dragging a Dirty Harry.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

From KITCO

QUOTE
Silver’s demand is picking up with the metal seeing the largest daily ETF inflow over the past year, says BMO Global Commodities Research. “While gold ETF flows have hit the headlines over the past month, over the past week silver has seen a larger net positive change. In particular, yesterday saw the largest single daily inflow over the past year at 5.55m oz,” writes BMO Capital Markets managing director of commodities research Colin Hamilton. This marked fifth consecutive day of gains for silver. “With gold having priced in potential rate cuts extremely quickly, we view silver as the catch-up trade at present, particularly if retail investors help to lift bar and coin demand,” Hamilton says.
Gold and silver prices will remain supported for the rest of the year as risk aversion dominates the markets, according to commodity economists at Capital Economics. Looser monetary policies worldwide and slower economic growth are positive for precious metals prices. “Dovish shifts of stance by major central banks and a more downbeat outlook for global growth prompted inflows into safe-haven assets last month. We think that rising investor risk aversion will buttress gold and silver prices through the remainder of this year,” write economists. Capital Economics sees silver rising to $16 an ounce by the end of this year on stronger demand. “Coin sales have already risen so far in 2019, and should continue to benefit from the rising appetite for safe havens. As such, we expect the gold/silver price ratio to fall this year,” they say.


Silver seems to be the perennial bridesmaid in the PM markets.
Always seems to be just about ready for a breakout.
Maybe this time??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 5 2019, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

So how will I know its you when sitting around the happy drinks at the free camp spot on the Fletcher river???
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 4 2019, 08:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

The small number of breakable parts is interesting. But lloking at the video and seeing the chasis and wheels being an integral part that could easily be removed from the body on top makes for an interesting servicing regime.
You drive in, they disconnect the body from the chassis, replace it with a another chassis thats been seriviced, recharged etc, and away you go.
I always expected that that is how they would do mass recharges of electric veihcles, by changing out the entire battery pack.
That way they could use lots of the spare renewable energy thats produced.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 4 2019, 08:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

i have just put a deposit on an off road van. I swore I would never join the grey nomads, but that went by the wayside,
My Ford ranger will happily tow this van, so there is no urgency to upgrade now.
Having seen lots of Oz from the sky, now its time to get up close and personal.
One of the big talking points within the caravan circles is just how much solar power/battery storage you need to live off grid out in the bush.
Those installing Lithium batteries are surprised at how much lighter they are and how much more power you can really draw from them.
The general consensus is that. 100 amp hour Lithium battery is equivalent to a 200 amp hour AGM battery and about 25% of the weight.
Panels that produce 250 watts are the norm now.
Trouble is, we need panels that produce in the kwatt range to be able effectively recharge an all electric vehicle when you are camped out on the Gibb River Road.
especially if you are towing 2.5 tonnes of caravan/camper trailer.
Maybe the next step will be fuel cells to provide the electricity generation.
But his vehicle is by far the most advanced off roader, and sets the standard.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jul 3 2019, 06:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=QMfxJEfb4lw

May have to put off upgrading my 4WD until this beast gets on the market.
Electric vehicles will one day become the norm.
Vehicles like this are part of the transformation.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 11:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, that was short lived. Looks like someone was trying to push up the price.
Back down below last weeks closing price.
Somebody would have done well.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Up 17% this morning. Most other goldies stagnant.
Somethings up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 07:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
- therein lies the problem. Retracement


I need retracements to buy back in, hopefully after selling at a reasonable profit.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 04:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Silver following gold in the PM reallignment.
The move from low 14's to 16 petered out in Feb this year, and fell back to low 14's.
Up to 15.20 or about 22.00 in Aud terms. Hasnt been there since late 2016.
Next target is 27.11 from July 2016,
Be nice if it could reach the heady days of mid 2011 when it touched over $40.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 04:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
This year gold has past thru 1800 mark which we had only seen twice before in 2011 and 2016.
Gold sitting on 1950, and smoothly approaching the 2000 mark.

Well, it broke into that 2k territory today. 2004 as I type.
The AUD has increased against the greenback, tempering some of the gains. But gold is rising regardless of the currency it is measured in.
Always a nice place to be.

But it won't last long according to the experts.
FROM ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Renewed hope for another Australian gold rush might be good for those who happen to strike it rich — but investors say it is also a sign of global uncertainty.

Key points:
Australia exported the most gold in its history last year
Demand is believed to be driven by global uncertainty
Central banks bought more gold last year than they have since the 1970s
The latest ABS data shows mining companies are spending more than ever looking for the rare commodity across Australia, with almost half a billion dollars spent between October and March.

Last year, Australia also exported the most gold in its history at 317 tonnes, maintaining its status as the second biggest producer of the element.

Western Australia's goldfields are leading the charge, however there has also been increased prospecting in the Northern Territory, where $14m was spent on gold exploration last quarter.

Warren Pearce, the chief executive of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, says exploration in both WA and the NT has "led to the recovery of the industry" back to 2012 levels.

"We have a lot of confidence that the future of the gold industry is very bright," he said.

What's behind this renewed confidence?
Mr Pearce said there is a simple reason — Australian gold prices have been steadily rising.

Today, they reached an all-time high of $2,000 an ounce.

But what is driving that might not be all rosy.

"It's perhaps an unfortunate positive that gold prices tend to rise when things aren't going well in the rest of the economy," Mr Pearce said.

That is because gold is typically seen as a safer option.

Truck emerges from underground gold mine.
PHOTO: Gold exploration is at a high in Western Australia. (ABC Goldfields-Esperance: Jarrod Lucas)
Unlike bonds or stocks, it is seen as a tangible commodity that will not lose its inherent value if markets crash.

Mr Pearce speculated that US-China tensions and even Brexit could be some sources of global uncertainty driving investors towards gold at the moment.

David Baker from Australian firm Baker Steele Capital — which runs a global gold fund — agrees there could be many sources of instability driving a push back to gold.

"I think there's a feeling that there's more risks in the world," Mr Baker says.

"There's more challenges. We're seeing trade wars and currency wars."

Central banks buying up gold
Last year, the world's central banks bought up 650 tonnes of gold, their highest amount since the 1970s.

"Central banks see gold as a hedge against uncertainty in the world," Mr Baker said.

Central Banks buying up in high numbers include Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey, India and Poland.

"These countries are very dependent on the US dollar for trade and settling accounts," Mr Baker says.

"What they're seeing is the US is quick to put sanctions on countries, so the feeling is you have a bit more gold in the bank, so you're more independent from the US."

Yet, like many historical moves back towards gold, Mr Baker said it was not easy to pinpoint the exact logic driving investors.

He warned the industry not to get too excited by the renewed optimism of Australian gold hunters.

"Gold is a very rare commodity and it takes a lot of time and expertise to find it," he said.

"That's why it's a precious metal.

"Australians are doing all they can and being reasonably successful but it's not an easy game."

Industry analyst firm IBISWorld echoed these sentiments, and said a lack of new gold deposit discoveries in the past decade and several mines forecast to close by 2025 presented a challenge for the sector.

The firm forecasts Australia's production of gold will fall to 255 tonnes by 2023, pushing it down to be the world's fourth largest producer.

The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies' Mr Pearce said he expected new gold deposits to be discovered in the next 18 months as exploration progresses.


One assumes that if a number of gold mines do close, then the price goes up as supply decreases.


Obviously, if the price of gold goes up, three things may happen:

1.Gold deposits that were once considered uneconomic can become attractive.
2. Exploration for gold becomes more attractive.
3. Reprocessing leach heaps and old tailings becomes economical.

Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

It can be dissapointing (to put it mildly).
But not today.
EVN up 6%.
Sbm up 8%
RMS up 12%
SLR up 5%.
Even the silver dog SVL up 10%.
PRX only one not performing, only up 1%.
Good day for me.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 01:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, it didn’t take long to recover. Up 12% today.
A cynic might suggest it was just a shake out exercise..
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I reckon JPM only picked those stocks cos they got a whole bunch at cheap prices and want to offload them.
Wouldn't trust the bastards as far as I could kick em.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 10:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

A piece in todays OZ business section has an interview with RMS head man Mark Zeptner.
He said that the failures of Gascoyne Resource and Coolgardie Minerals as well as massive slug on Dacian gold will make it very difficult for snaller end of Australian Gold sector to get funding for mine development.
However, the big end of town with good assets, solid management, aad good mine plans have no problems with getting funding.
He said that their five year mining plan was essentially self funded, and planned to deliver dividends in near term.
When asked if RMS were interested in acian, he talked the takeover idea down.

I guess the increased gold price might cause some of the minnows to be attractive, but it would have to be a pretty good increase.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 08:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr--GVIoluU
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

looks like SLR and RMS are swapping places..
RMS being sold down from its 95 cent high to below 70 today, and SLR smashing through the dollar mark.
Love this rotation, another way to make a buck..
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 03:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807


This year gold has past thru 1800 mark which we had only seen twice before in 2011 and 2016.
Gold sitting on 1950, and smoothly approaching the 2000 mark.
The rallys in previous years lasted multiple years, so this one may have a little while to go.




Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

AAARRGGGHHHHH! Bloody economists strike again!

FROM ABC NEWS

QUOTE
]Economists say the policy of large-scale money printing by the Reserve Bank is now on the table, and it needs to be discussed more openly.

Key points:
Should the Reserve Bank begin large scale money printing, it could lead to billions being pumped into the economy
It would also have the effect of further lowering interest rates
Many view it as a "last resort" policy, but some experts suggest it should be strongly considered
"The Reserve Bank needs to start preparing the public," United States Studies Centre program director Stephen Kirchner said.

The Sydney University-based centre has been studying the use of money printing in the US, and argues Australia could benefit from the lessons it learned.

The Reserve Bank itself has mentioned the possibility of quantitative easing as an option if cutting interest rates no longer has the desired effects of boosting inflation and economic growth.

So, what is "quantitative easing", or money printing as it is colloquially dubbed?

Like any other business, the Reserve Bank has assets it lists on its balance sheet, including cash.

If it were to engage in quantitative easing it would spend that cash by buying bonds from the Government or the corporate sector, effectively flooding the economy with billions of dollars of extra money.

It would also have the effect of further lowering interest rates.

That is because large scale-bond purchases drive up the price of bonds and lower their yield (or interest rate).

Those lower interest rates filter through to other parts of the economy and can drive down the cost of business loans and mortgages.

Dr Kirchner wants to get the word out that quantitative easing is not a "last resort" policy, as many view it, and it could be the shot in the arm the Australian economy needs.

"There's nothing exceptional or unusual about quantitative easing," Dr Kirchner said.

"It's really just a change in the operating instrument for monetary policy from the official cash rate to outright purchases of assets."


Ha, there's noting exceptional or unusual about qualitative easing.
But that hardly makes it a good idea.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

The Life of mine announcement ' seem all that bad, but RMS has dropped to 74..
Kinda hoping it will drop below the 73 cents mark which was where I sold half my stake last time.
Enjoyed the healthy profit, but if I had held on till 90 cents would have been spectatcular profit.
Hindsight, aint it great??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 15 2019, 11:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
The interest rate is 5.25 per cent. There are to be no establishment fees but there may be legal fees. Borrowings will be advanced in the form of fortnightly income payments and the payments will not count as assessable income for determining age pension entitlements. The debt is usually recovered when the property is sold, or from the borrower's estate once the home owner dies.


Interest rates set by the RBA at 1.25%, so the 5.25% set by this govt scheme seems a bit rich.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Dunno EB, not a good enough chartist to make those sort of calls.
But I think you are spot on as to its rise, its the reason I bought in.
Be very interested in e roll out of 5G..
I think 5G will revolutionise the way lots of things are done.
Pity it will only be in the cities though.
I was up in central NSW a while ago, and had to downgrade my phone to 3G in some areas to get reliable reception!

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Today, I have bought into BAF for a long term hold.
Their water rights are the asset I think will do very well.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yo EB, run right thru that 3.80 ish target.
You still holding.?

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 14 2019, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Just to add a few data points.
Firstly, despite continued attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, blamed on Iran, there is still falling demand for crude, with an oversupply.
West Texas oil is sill still falling.

Natural gas is down from a high of4.75 last year to 2.32 last night.

From Bloombergs
QUOTE
Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased, rising to a five-week high and adding to signs of potential cooling in the labor market.

Jobless claims rose to 222,000 in the week ended June 8, according to Labor Department figures released Thursday. The four-week average, a less-volatile measure, edged up to 217,750.

The third-straight increase follows May job growth that missed all estimates. While jobless claims remain near historically low levels, signs of broader economic weakness are starting to appear in indicators from manufacturing to retail sales.
A separate Labor Department report Thursday showed import prices fell 0.3% in May from the prior month, the first monthly decline this year, as export prices dropped 0.2%. Agricultural export prices declined 5.3% from a year earlier, the most since April 2016, led by a 20.6% decrease in soybean prices.
What Our Economists Say
“Jobless claims tend to be volatile, and while the latest jump could be a signal of deteriorating labor market conditions, it is too early to draw that conclusion...The economy is slowing, but it is still growing above potential and expected to generate enough jobs to tighten the labor market further.”
-- Eliza Winger, associate


Other commodities are falling such as copper (down to 2600 from 3400 a year ago), Zinc (down to 1200 from 1640 a year ago) , Cobalt (down from 95,000 ton to 27,500 a ton since March 2018 and nearly 50% this year alone), cotton ( down 32% since highs of July 2018), Soybeans (down 20% since highs of early 2017).
The only bright spots are rice, wheat and wool, although, all have come off their recent highs, as well as Iron Ore which has steadily risen this year, but still some way off 190 mark of the heady days of 2011.
Note the above is all in USD.

We are seeing house prices fall in OZ, stagnation of wages growth, and a reluctance of people to spend.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 10:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I'm not Mark, but going to have my 2 cents worth.
Cash is King??
Well the kingdom is looking mighty shaky.
Cash may get you 1.75%, but with the potential of further rate cuts, it won't last for long.
People are still scared, and will pay down debt before they do anything.
I think we are heading for another period of deflation.
(But remember, my predictions are no better or worse than any others).
Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 01:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Nip, the sharp decline in May Job ads may not be quite as bad as first thought.

From the ANZ commentary on the results:

Down but not Out

QUOTE
“Job ads were down sharply in May, which at face value points to a sharp slowing in employment growth. But we think there is a good reason why this decline is not representative of reality. Job ads plunged in the last week of April, which we think was due to the ‘holiday year’ effect that happens when ANZAC Day and Easter are close together. We think the run up to the federal election contributed further to delaying job postings. Consistent with this explanation, postings in the last week of May (ie after the election) were considerably higher than in the previous four weeks. If the last week of May is indicative, then job ads will rebound strongly in June.”


Next months data will confirm the slowdown or show a blip.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 01:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

The labour force stats out this morning provide a mixed result.

from Bloombergs

QUOTE
Australian employment rose more than expected in May as the participation rate rose to a record, driven predominantly by part-time jobs.

Jobs rose 42,300 from April, compared with economists’ forecast of a 16,000 gain; the unemployment rate held at 5.2% versus an estimated 5.1%
Full-time positions climbed 2,400; part-time roles rose 39,800
Participation rate increased to a record-high 66%; est. 65.8%
Key Insights:
The May jobs report could have been impacted by the general election, which returned the center-right government in a shock result, as temporary staff were hired to help with the ballot
Australia’s central bank last week resumed interest-rate cuts -- after an almost three-year hiatus -- as it bids to drive the jobless rate down toward 4.5%, the new estimate of full employment. At that level, policy makers expect the economy to generate faster inflation.
In lowering the full employment estimate, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe is following in the footsteps of other developed-world counterparts, who’ve had to wait for unemployment to fall to very low levels to spur wage growth.
Pushing Australia’s jobless rate down to 4.5% is likely to prove an uphill battle. The nation’s debt-laden households have hunkered down and cut spending as they grapple with stagnant wages and watch falling house prices erode their wealth
Australia’s labor market has held up well even as the economy slowed sharply. One explanation for the resilience is that much of the hiring is coming from government-related programs that are impervious to prevailing economic conditions

The jobs increase was higher than the "experts" expected (do they ever get it right??), but was tempered by the fact that most of the jobs created were part time.

Interestingly, Bloombergs suggest that some of the part time increase may have been due to the election requiring more bods.
As I went to my local polling place, I reckon I knew at least 75% of the employees. Most were either school teachers, or retirees.
Not sure how that fits in with the bloomberg posit.
The AUD fell 25 points after the announcement, so the market agrees that this is no a positive look.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 11:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Agreed about it being a great read.
Loved this quote

QUOTE
Its yet another example of William Goldman’s truism that “Nobody knows anything.”


Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 11:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

APT drops 10% after it was revealed that AUSTRAC is peering inside to ensure it is complying with the anti money laundering laws.
Wonder if they will find anything??

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

In a trading halt.
Given its recently come off the 95 all time high, I suspect it won't be spectacular moves.
No big vol moves in last few days, and opening match no change also suggests that those in the know didn't see it as exciting.
Mick.
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 11 2019, 06:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

At the risk of getting into a brawl, i had a good larf while watching a local boy, rapper Adam Briggs on Q and A last night.


Q and A

QUOTE
“I don’t think a lot of people are that attached to the actual anthem,” he added. “It’s only 35 years old. I don’t think anyone is really that attached to it because the song’s just not that good.”


Not that goos eh? Well, I guess we are all allowed an opinion on that.
So i had a quick listen to some of Briggsys rap music via youtube..
Hmm, not sure if I would rely on him for music guidance.
To paraphrase, "his music is not that good".
Violence and crudities seems to be his forte.

I guess using the old proverbs about pot, kettles and black is inappropriate on this occasion.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 11 2019, 05:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

As a self funded retireee, I am struggling to workout the right strategies for the short to medium term.
NAB offer a "high Interest account" in their NABTRADE structure.
It is now paying the fantastic sum of 1.75% interest.
And with every man and his dog predicting at least one more cut, it aint gunna get any better in the short term..
I refuse to let the bastards at NAB use my money to make a lot more for themselves.
the big question is, to what exactly do we put our millions into??
Already got enough illiquid property.
It really only leaves the share market left.
I wonder how many other folk in a similar situation will take the same route??
Will we have a share boom as investors have no other paths to follow??

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 9 2019, 11:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Could be EB, who knows what drives the market these days,!
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 7 2019, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
But back to the hard grind of reality I just saw that a very average 4 bed house with no usable garage and only one bathroom in an average Canberra suburb sold at auction the other day for $706k.
That is just silly.

I would have said that just living in Canberra was plain silly ......

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 7 2019, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Hopefully, all those tech and It jobs to be created can be taken up by ex construction workers.

T
QUOTE
he construction sector's downturn accelerated last month, with a leading industry survey pointing to the sharpest decline in activity in six years.

Key points:
Construction activity has been contracting for nine consecutive months
50,000 jobs were lost last year and another 9,000 in the first three months of 2019
Falling forward orders across most sectors, but particularly residential building, points to ongoing weakness
The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (PCI) dropped deeper into contractionary territory in May.

It is the ninth consecutive month of contraction and points to more jobs being lost across the sector.

Last year around 50,000 construction jobs were shed. The figures point to another 9,000 being lost in the first three months of 2019.

"This marked a tenth consecutive month of contraction in employment, consistent with the more subdued readings on activity from mid-2018," the survey found.

"It indicates that construction businesses are responding to the ongoing weakness of overall demand conditions by exerting greater caution in terms of their labour recruitment."

Figures from job ad website Seek show that the number of construction positions available fell 16.6 per cent in the March quarter 2019, compared to a year earlier, albeit that was coming off record high levels.

Construction employs around 1.1 million workers and accounts for 9 per cent of total Australian jobs.


Despite that, BLD is up today.
Sometimes markets are weird.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 6 2019, 06:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

From ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Problem home loans are now at their highest level since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, according to the credit ratings agency Standard and Poor's Global.

Key points:
High levels of household debt and underemployment, as well as low wage growth, are leading to rising levels of mortgage arrears
Standard and Poor's says interest rate and tax cuts, as well as easing credit conditions, are unlikely to help much
Investor arrears are rising faster than owner-occupier arrears
Concerningly, Standard and Poor's said little relief is in sight.

"Tepid wage growth, high household debt and a softening economy are likely to keep arrears elevated for some time," Standard and Poor's analyst Erin Kitson said.

"Tougher refinancing conditions will continue to hold down prepayment rates by restricting borrowers' ability to self-manage their way out of mortgage stress."

Mortgage delinquencies are on the rise, house prices are still tumbling and borrowers are falling into the quicksand of negative equity in their property. It's bad.
Prepayment rates relate to normal repayments on home loans, unscheduled amounts above normal repayments and refinancing loans.

The report found the Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) sector deteriorated in the first quarter of 2019 as debt serviceability pressures mounted.

Unusually, arrears have been rising toward previous highs, despite stable employment conditions and low interest rates.

However, Standard and Poor's said, as long as employment did not deteriorate, the creditworthiness of the RMBS sector was unlikely to be severely affected.



On the surface , this seems like a fairly ominous statistic.
However, when you drill down and look at the accompanying graph, it seems less ominous.

The graph can be seen at the original article, for reasons known only to themselves, Sharescene does not allow posting these types of images.

The total arrears make up about 1.5% of all loans, the 90+ ones are about 0.75%.
In the last 20 years it has varied between 0.75 and the high of 1.6% in 2011 and 2012.

Yes, its a worry for those involved, but unless that percentage goes up significantly, I don't think there is a need to panic just yet.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 5 2019, 11:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

From Kitco

QUOTE
Gold prices are up 1% on the day and near session highs following significantly weaker growth in private sector employment, according to the latest report from private payrolls company ADP.

Wednesday, ADP said that 27,000 jobs were created in May, missing expectations; consensus forecasts were calling for job growth of 185,000.

Gold prices were in positive territory ahead of the report and have jumped higher in initial reaction. August gold futures last traded at $1,342.10 an ounce, up 1.02% on the day.

According to reports, this is the slowest growth rate in the private sector since March 2010. Small businesses and the manufacturing sector were the hardest hit with jobless in all major sectors.

Along with gold prices pushing to session highs, the U.S. dollar is trading at session lows; the U.S. dollar index last traded at 96.99 points.

Although the ADP data is not a consistent predictor ahead of Friday's report, some economists have said that it does provide some downside risk to the official government numbers. The labor market has been a significant bright spot for the U.S. Economy and the latest employment data could add jitters to a marketplace that is already concerned about rising recession risks, said some economists.

"Even when considering the average absolute difference between this series and private non-farm payrolls on first release, this adds to the downside risk to Friday's report," said Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.


Be interesting to see what happens after the "real" jobs report comes out Friday.
Still puzzling as to why AUD still so high, but must be due to falling USD.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 5 2019, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Not this year, going in for a new knee.

Had hoped to put it off for a few years, but time has come says surgeon,

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 5 2019, 01:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

So, the RBA drops rates and signals there will be more.
The GDP figures out today show the economy is at its slowest since the GFC days.
So what happens to the AUD?? It heads past 70 cents again.
Pretty hard to read or understand this market.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 10:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I am fairly heavily invested in RMS, SBM, SLR and more recently a little flutter in PRX.
Pretty happy so far.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 10:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Thanks EB, I have stopped crying now.
The problem is, I just can't see how its going to help.
if they were hoping to drive the AUD down and import inflation, well that failed miserably.
The Housing price falls are only a problem when the equity becomes negative. No amount of interest rate cust are going to help that situation.
The self funded retirees(like me) are curing cos their incomes will drop a bit more.
And if things go really pear shaped and they need to stimulate the economy, they have fewer arrows in the quiver.
If we go to 1% in June, as so many of the experts are saying, they only have four 25 basis point cuts then we are at 0.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 03:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Gold touched AUD1900 this morning, and still hovering very near to this mark.
You would have to think that gold stocks in OZ still have some upward momentum in them.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 02:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807



QUOTE
And I am going to go against the experts and bet there will be no interest rate rise from RBA 2morrow.
Mick


Well, the untrained monkey got that wrong!.
mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Wonder if the fall in retail sales will spur the RBA.
Interesting to note that despite the net balance on goods and services of a positive 13.6 billion , because the net income liability was 16 billion, the current account is still showing a deficit.
When the terms of trade are so much in our favour, and we still have net outflow of currency, we are in sever danger if the drivers of exports fall.
Any sort of drop in price and/or volume of coal or iron ore and we are doomed.

Mick


QUOTE
Australian retailers are continuing to struggle, with sales sliding in April.

Key points:
Retail sales fell in April with household goods and clothing and footwear the hardest hit
Retail sales growth have been poor for more than a year, hit by low wages and worries about falling house prices
The export economy is booming with a record quarter helping to narrow the current account deficit to its lowest level in more than 20 years
Consumers struggling with low wage rises and concerns about job security have kept their wallets shut, with retail turnover falling 0.1 per cent over the month.

The result follows a fairly soft 0.3 per cent rise in March and was far worse than the consensus forecast of another modest rise.

Once again, the household goods sector suffered the brunt of the downturn.

Sales of household goods fell 0.9 per cent, while clothing footwear and accessories sales were down 1.2 per cent on a month ago.

Australians tended to eat at home more, with food sales up marginally, while there was a substantial decline in spending at cafes, restaurants and takeaway food outlets.

Department stores enjoyed a surprising rebound, fired up by a spate of discounting.

The retail retreat was felt acutely in New South Wales, where turnover was down 0.4 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms — its biggest drop in more than seven years.

Sales also slowed rapidly in Victoria, although picked up in Queensland and South Australia.

BIS Oxford economist Sarah Hunter described the retail figures as "dismal".

"Looking through recent volatility in the series, the trend pace of growth has been stuck at 0.2 per cent a month since August, which clearly highlights the fundamental challenges facing the sector from weak income growth and squeezed margins as a result of competition from online sales," Dr Hunter said.

"There are [also] signs that e-retailers are also being hampered by the challenging domestic conditions — the share of online sales in total spending has largely stagnated over the last twelve months, after previously growing rapidly."

While the retail sector continues to be weighed down by a struggling domestic economy, a record quarter by exporters helped to drive Australia's current account deficit to the lowest level since 1996.

The net balance on goods and services was a $13.6 billion surplus, with exports up $4.2 billion and imports down $514 million.

However, the trade surplus was smaller than the $16 billion net income liability, leaving the current account with a quarterly deficit of $2.9 billion.

"We saw strong goods exports this quarter, with prices up sharply for metal ores and minerals and non-monetary gold," ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said.

"Iron ore is a significant part of the story owing to domestic factors and broader global supply interruptions pushing prices up."

Net foreign debt edged up by another $5 billion over the quarter to $1.095 trillion.

GDP growth to slow
The stronger than expected net export result, coupled with surprises in public sector spending and business inventory build-up, have led some economists to nudge up GDP forecasts ahead of tomorrow's first quarter National Accounts release.

Capital Economics has raised its forecast for first quarter GPD growth to 0.5 per cent.

"That would be higher than the 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter gain in Q4, but still consistent with annual GDP growth slowing below 2 per cent [annually]," Capital Economics' Ben Udy said.

"Overall, today's data suggest that economic activity remained subdued in the first half of 2019, placing increasing pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy."

However, ANZ's Felicity Emmett was sticking to a more downbeat forecast of GDP growth at 1.7 per cent — the slowest pace since 2009 in the depths of the GFC.

"The main new pieces of information since our preliminary forecast last week are weaker profits for both large and small businesses, and slightly weaker net exports," Ms Emmett said.

"Strong growth in inventories provided some offset to the weakness elsewhere. Government spending and wages were broadly in line with our forecasts.

"In Wednesday's report, the focus will once again be on the household indicators — consumption and income. Weak retail sales volumes point to relatively modest growth in consumer spending.

"While retail spending accounts for only around 30 per cent of consumption, falling house prices and ongoing soft income growth will have weighed on consumer spending in the quarter."


  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

From The Street


QUOTE
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday led a secret meeting of top U.S. financial regulators on the risks to global markets from the recent surge in corporate borrowing -- a growing concern as fears mount that the economy might be headed for a slowdown or a recession.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council, formed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis to prevent a repeat, met "in executive session," or behind closed doors, according to a statement released by the Treasury Department's public-affairs unit following the meeting.

Members of the group include Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as well as the heads of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

No details were provided on the gist of the discussion, though according to the statement the panel heard an "update" from Craig Phillips, a counselor to Mnuchin, on recent market developments involving "corporate credit and leveraged lending."

Leveraged lending is the financial industry's term for the practice of making loans to companies with poor credit ratings, colloquially known as junk. Historically, the market was dominated by banks, but in recent years investment firms and other non-bank lenders joined in; the outstanding amount of the loans has mushroomed over the past decade to about $1.2 trillion, eclipsing the more-established junk-bond market.

There's also been a surge in borrowing by companies with triple-B ratings, which rank just above junk but could face dire downgrades if an economic slowdown shrinks profits for those borrowers. That category of debt has climbed to an unprecedented level of more than $3 trillion, according to Standard & Poor's, sparking warnings from officials including Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The concern is that if the economy falters, loan losses would climb dramatically and other companies would be more likely to default on their outstanding bonds.

Minutes from the Financial Stability Oversight Council's March 6 meeting, released Thursday, show that Ted Berg, a Treasury Department researcher, warned panel members that even the non-junk debt could see $300 million to $1 trillion of credit-rating downgrades during the next downturn.

Since then, President Donald Trump's trade war with China has intensified, casting a pall over global markets. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates that the president's new tariffs could add about $800 to the average household's annual costs while hurting business sales and potentially pushing the U.S. into its first recession in a decade.

"Credit stresses are multiplying," analysts at Bank of America, the second-biggest U.S. lender, wrote last week in a report. "Reduced risk appetite leads to restricted capital access, which in turn has the potential to set the stage for elevated distress and eventual defaults."

In recent days, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have slipped below those on shorter-term bills and notes -- an unusual phenomenon known as a "yield-curve inversion" since investors usually demand higher returns to compensate for the extra risk that comes with a longer payback period. It's often seen as a classic sign of an impending recession.

The borrowing binge by U.S. companies has garnered so much attention from investors lately that Powell, the Fed chairman, devoted an entire speech to the topic on May 20. He said there's currently a "moderate" risk that business debt triggers a full-blown financial crisis, although "the level of debt certainly could stress borrowers if the economy weakens."

"Once again, we see a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards," Powell said.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a branch of the Treasury Department that supervises national banks, wrote in a May 20 report that "years of growth, incremental easing in underwriting, risk layering and building credit concentrations result in accumulated risk."

The corporate-lending surge has been fueled by firms like Blackstone (BX - Get Report) and Apollo Global Management (APO - Get Report) , which rely on junk-grade loans to finance the acquisitions they make through their private-investment funds.

In recent years, the firms have also waded into the corporate-lending business themselves and they now routinely package junk loans into new bonds known as "collateralized loan obligations," or CLOs -- some with pristine triple-A ratings that can be easily sold on to investors with promises of attractive yields.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat and declared 2020 presidential candidate, has likened the process to Wall Street's assembly-line-style packaging of subprime mortgages into triple-A rated bonds in the years before the 2008 crisis.

Indeed, with U.S. banks facing tighter scrutiny over the past decade, the private-equity industry has had almost free rein to take over a bigger portion of the financial markets. The five biggest private-equity firms, including Powell's former employer, Carlyle Group, now manage some $1.37 trillion of client money overall, based on a tally by TheStreet.

Mnuchin and other Treasury officials have proposed to exempt these "non-bank firms" from getting designated as "systemically important" -- a label that would subject them to much tougher oversight. Instead, regulators would supervise the firms' "activities."

According to Thursday's statement, the oversight council "heard a presentation from Treasury staff" on public comments submitted in response to Mnuchin's proposal.

The presentation wasn't released, but the comments are publicly available on a government website. They include a May 13 letter to Mnuchin from the American Investment Council, the main U.S. trade association for private-equity firms, advocating for the exemption.

Yet there's still powerful opposition -- from the likes of former Treasury secretaries Timothy Geithner and Jacob Lew as well as former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

"Regulation, of course, carries burdens for individual firms, but these consequences have to be measured against the tragic and indiscriminate costs of a crisis," they wrote to Mnuchin and Powell in a joint letter, also dated May 13.


History repeats as they say.
So how long before it all comes crashing down and US fed bails out its mates again??
Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Ya got me there Nip, went searching for a Newspoll of Interest rate movements and found the link below.
For all of 2018, the average of experts tipping the next rate movement was a rise was over %80.
Three months later in March 2019, it was down to 25%.
Despite such swings, there has been no interest rate movements in that time.
Economists are really no better than trained monkeys ( one rung above me).
Mick

Next Interest movement
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 08:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

And I am going to go against the experts and bet there will be no interest rate rise from RBA 2morrow.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 3 2019, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
........ still importing capital, but less so !?!?


And that fits neatly with the ridiculously low deposit rates that the majors often.
NAB has a "high Interest Account" within their NABTRTADE platform.
It currently sits at 2%..
Talk about a misnomer!

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 31 2019, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

OZL has fallen below the 9 level for the first time since December last year.
200 day EMA and MACD both falling.
Been in a steady decline since hitting a high of 10.95 in early April.
Still in a bearish decline, and still falling.
However, I reckon at some stage, it will provide buying opportunities.

Given all the EV's etc that are going to be built, copper will be in great demand.
Will be watching and charting.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 31 2019, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

SBM hit a 52 week low this morning.
The announcement that they failed to reach the 355,000 ounce level did not go down well.
Not looking good for the retail share offer.
My other gold stocks are up, so just seems related to the announcement.
So I bought more.
It still produces gold, and with AUD falling, and an expectation of higher gold prices, its still seems like good value.
Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 31 2019, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Obviously the market thinks that BLD will benefit greatly from the non change in Government.
Upward momentum confirmed.
Not only holding that 5 handle, but gone right thru it.

Next stop looking for that 7 handle from September last year.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 30 2019, 03:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Been a long time, but I am now back in ALK.
The rare earths may get a boost big time from the spats over REM's between China and USA.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 30 2019, 11:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I took the money and ran.
Not a great profit, but still a profit.
Better than money in the bank earning miserly 2% interest.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 29 2019, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

"The Market" (meaning the big banks, hedge funds etc,), certainly already knew that. They were just suckering the bit players to get the bit players to buy the stocks "the market" wanted to dump.
Rule no 1: Always shift the losses to someone else.

Mick in cynic mode again.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 22 2019, 07:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I share your concerns.
I also have an SMSF, but took funds out to keep a reserve just in case.
Given the massive amounts of money going in to Super, it becomes too much of a cash cow to ignore.
The pollies and bureacrats will make all sorts of excuses/reasosn as to why it is a good thing, but it will happen nonetheless.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 22 2019, 04:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Last week, I was talking with a wealth advisor.
He wondered where the ALP gets its financial and actuary info from.
He made the interesting point that the large SMSF funds getting millions of "gifts" from the ATO courtesy of Franking credits, would over time lose the advantage.
For the fund to get this franking credit "gift", one or more members would have to be either retired, or transitioning to retirement.
Once retired, members have to extract a minimum of 5% from age 65 to 74, and it increases by 1 % every 5 years after that.
So these members with many millions of dollars in their funds are going to have to take some out every year.
They either spend it, providing the Govt with GST, or invest in something outside of Super, and thus attracts either company tax, income tax, or capital gains tax.
Over time, the members balance gets smaller, depending on how long the members lives.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2019, 07:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Oh, Oh, looks like Tesla and possibly Elon as well, is in a bit of Bother.
from ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Tesla chief executive Elon Musk told employees that he will increase scrutiny of the company's expenses in his latest initiative to cut costs at the electric carmaker.

Key points:
Tesla raised more than $USD2.7 billion in a stock offering earlier this month
But chief executive Elon Musk warns the company is spending $USD200 million per month
It is not the first time Tesla has made moves to cut costs, having laid off staff in the last 18 months
Tesla earlier this month closed a $US2.7 billion ($3.93 billion) offering of stock and convertible notes, giving it much needed cash as it ramps up production.

Mr Musk in an email to employees, seen by Reuters, said its net proceeds from the offering gave Tesla only 10 months to achieve break-even at the rate it was burning cash in the first quarter.
"It is important to bear in mind that we lost $US700 million in the first quarter this year, which is over $US200 million per month," Mr Musk wrote in the email.

"That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the word, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must (be) reviewed.


Wonder how the folk who just stumped up $2.7billion will feel about such urgency.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2019, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

St Barbara crunched after announcing an institutional placement at 2.89.
Retail mums and dads get a chance to buy as well at the same price.
The market does not seem impressed with this dilution.
Opened below the placement price.
Bought more today at 2.825, a fair bit below the placement price.

Still bullish on gold., love these buying opportunities.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2019, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I could not work out where to put this post,.
Its about Superannuation, but does not mean only SmSF, but what the heck, ya gotta start somewhere.
From Chuck Butlers Daily Pfenning

QUOTE
And that brings me to very dark alley, where things are talked about outside of the media... Here, I get to listen to many theories and rumors... The rumor I'm concentrating on now is the one that floated around about 10 years ago, and I warned then that it would come back at some point in the future, and it has, that's why I'm checking it out today... The rumor I'm talking about is the Gov't requiring U.S. citizens with 401's and IRA's to buy Treasuries, since the foreigners aren't buying them... While I don't care for the idea, think about it for a minute... If all the moms and pops of the U.S. held Treasuries in their retirement account, they wouldn't give two hoots about a stock selloff, now would they? So... checking on it, I find it's way back in the dark alley, so it appears to be a back burner things right now...


This is the second time in recent months I have come across this rumour.
It would be a natural flow here in OZ.
Given what all sides of govt have done with super, they force more and more money into super funds out of the wages of workers (The Super Guarantee contribs % will be 15 % under Labour), and then legislate that all funds must hold a certain percentage of govet bonds in their portfolios.
Money for Jam.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2019, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yep, I still hold my shorts. Probably need a belt.
Agree that 63 is next target.
Will most likely offload if we get to 65, that gives me a nice profit to upgrade my 4WD sometime next year.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 9 2019, 08:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Agh, God moves in mysterious ways.

A case of Divine Intervention???

QUOTE
An 18-year-old student who was banned by his school for refusing to take the chickenpox vaccine has now contracted the disease.

Key points:
Jerome Kunkel refused the chickenpox vaccine due to his religious beliefs
The original chickenpox vaccine was developed in the 1960s using matter from two aborted foetuses
Health officials say Mr Kinkel and his lawyer were "playing down the dangers of chickenpox"
Jerome Kunkel of Kentucky in the US has not been allowed back to his school since March 15, when a chickenpox outbreak prompted officials to order unvaccinated students to keep away.

Due to his conservative religious beliefs, Mr Kunkel refused the vaccination, and has since sued the school for refusing him access.

But, his lawyer confirmed, he has now contracted chickenpox and will be free to return once his symptoms have cleared.

"These are deeply held religious beliefs, they're sincerely held beliefs," attorney Christopher Weist told NBC News.

"From their perspective, they always recognized they were running the risk of getting it, and they were OK with it."

Who's missing out on vaccinations?

Debate around immunisation focuses on 'vaccine refusers' but experts say we cannot ignore the other reasons children miss out on vaccines.
Some religions are against the chickenpox vaccination because the initial vaccine was developed by scientists in the 1960s using matter from two aborted foetuses.



That'll learn him.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 8 2019, 06:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Godly inluence in USA

Move over Mueller, there is a need for a proper investigation into Foreign Entity Influence in US Politics.

Well, I thought it was funny!.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2019, 02:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, the boys at the RBA say its steady as she goes.
No rate cut, as about 40% of the "experts" expected.
Personally, I reckon things will have to get really drastic before they do.
AUD up 80 basis points on the news.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2019, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yea, I got the subtelty in that Triage.
Nice one.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2019, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Looking at the news footage, doesn't show the body guards in a great light.
Kinda shows how easy it would be to actually do some harm to a PM.
Someone with a knife rather than an egg would probably have a more tragic outcome.
Interesting that the protester was thrown out of the building rather than being arrested (at least the news report mentioned nothing about being arrested).
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2019, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

This depressing news from USA DEBT



QUOTE
Millions of Americans are getting buried in debt, literally.

A shocking number are dying with unpaid mortgages, car loans, student loans and credit cards. It’s shocking in the sense that half of those people would be stunned to find out they’re going to leave a stack of unpaid bills when they pass on.

Thirty percent of Americans firmly believe they are doomed to be in debt until the day they die. That’s according to a 2017 survey of 1,114 adults by CreditCards.com.

Even more people are simply pessimistic they’ll ever pay all their bills before their time runs out. The study showed that 65% of millennials are unsure they’ll die debt free, while 83% of retirees over 72 aren’t sure.

The scary part is that as gloomy as a lot of people are, the actual statistics are twice as depressing.

A comprehensive survey found that 73% of Americans are likely to die with debt. That finding comes from the credit reporting agency Experian, which tracks more than 220 million consumers.

Credit.com surveyed the database and found that 73% of people who died between October and December of 2016 had outstanding debt. The average bill they left on the table was $61,554.

Broken down, 68% of the deceased had outstanding credit card debt, 37% had unpaid mortgages, 25% had unpaid car loans, 12% had unpaid personal loans and 6% had unpaid student loans.

There is no reason think the survey’s time frame was an anomaly when it comes to overall death rates. That means that almost three out of every four Americans are not leaving anything behind for their families except maybe a lot of headaches.

The only good news is that their survivors probably won’t get stuck with the unpaid bills. Creditors are paid from the deceased person’s assets – homes, cars, bank accounts, etc.
U.S. household debt climbed to almost $13 trillion in 2017, according to the New York Federal Reserve. Credit card debt hit an all-time high of $1.02 trillion. The average American has a credit card balance of $6,375, according to Experian’s 2017 study of U.S. credit and debt.

Nothing indicates people are living beyond their means more than credit card debt. And 35% of respondents to the CreditCards.com survey believe they will never pay off all their credit cards.

Never, as in they’ll be paying 16% interest until they die. That’s depressing enough to make anyone want to jump off a bridge.


Would be interesting to how much of that 73% of people dying with debt did not have sufficient assets to recover that debt. How much is written off?

The bit about assuming outstanding debt accumulating interest is questionable. Its a bit misleading to assume everyone with credit card bills is living beyond their means. The real statistic I would like to see is how much of the outstanding debt is accumulating interest. At anyone point I cou;d have that much on my credit card, but it gets paid in full each month. There are lots of reasons for using credit cards, getting frequent buying/flying points, having automatic deductions for utility bills without having to monitor debit balances all the time. I am sure there are other reason.

Still some mind boggling ststs.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 7 2019, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

From ABC News

QUOTE
Australian defence officials have been urged to consider round-the-clock dehumidification systems at an Air Force base near Newcastle to curb the corrosion risk for its fleet of Joint Strike Fighter jets.

Key points:
A KPMG report shows corrosion risks from salt to 72 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters at the Williamtown RAAF base
The report warns aluminium parts are susceptible, and recommends full-time dehumidification
The fighters are the largest acquisition in the Air Force's history, costing $17 billion
Auditing and consulting firm KPMG was tasked with doing a report on the "intergranular corrosion mitigation options" for the 72 F-35A fighter jets, bought by the Australian Defence Force for $17 billion.

Concerns over the risk of metal stress and cracking were raised in 2017, the year before the next-generation fighters were due to come to Australia.

The FOI report obtained by the ABC said of the three bases where the jets would be based, only Williamtown, near Newcastle, had been identified as having potential problems.

The risk is posed by salt and other climatic conditions.


I am not convinced that an Auditing and Consulting firm would be the best people to produce a report on mettalurgical properties.
Perhaps an aviation related engineering group? Hawker Pacific springs to mind.
The physics/chemistry dept from a university perhaps?? Riddels uni maybe?

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2019, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, Gold went up a bit, silver , platinum and palladium all went down.
Funnymentals don't matter any more eb.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2019, 07:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Chuck Butler is a little peeved about the quality of the stats quoted by the feds.
From his daily Pfenning email

QUOTE
OK... I can't hold my breath any longer, I've got to let it out... What a bunch of BS! 1st QTR GDP was revised upward, yes, I said upward, to 3.2% from a previous reading of 2.3%... What a bunch of hogwash! Yes, the March numbers are coming in a little better than previously thought, but that’s just one month of the quarter, the first two months were horrendous with data!... And a little better than previously thought March, brings the 2.3% print to 3.2%? I’m not buying it, and you shouldn’t either folks… I’ve come to the realization that whenever we see a negative or weak print one month, that the boys in the back room that count the beans get called on the carpet and told to not let that happen again… And thus, we see immaculate turnarounds in data from month to month… I know there’s nothing I can do about it, so I’m not going to let this get me all ticked off and such… I’ll just say my piece and move along…

Oh, and let us not forget that the U.S. Gov’t was shutdown for a period of time during the 1st QTR… Are the bean counters telling us that it had no effect what-so-ever on economic growth? Or did they forget, that we have long memories and would remember the shutdown? I’m betting that it was the latter of the two! These guys that put together the economic reports have become so brazen, with their reporting, that someone, somewhere with a strong identity, should stand up and be heard that it’s all a bunch of hogwash! Pig slop, road pizza, whatever it’s all getting on my nerves, and it should be getting on yours too!

And don’t just take my word that the GDP print was hogwash… Let’s listen to what one of my fave economists, David Rosenberg, had to say about it… “This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade .” – David Rosenberg from his Twitter feed.

And did you hear this one? Global Growth has dipped negative in the first quarter of the year on a year on year basis, this is the first time that’s happened in over a decade! And we’re supposed to believe that a negative Global Growth in the first quarter, led to an upward revised GDP of 3.2% here in the U.S.? Come on, what do you guys take us for a bunch of dolts?

I guess using the fact that they printed the number and didn't look back, that they do undoubtedly take us for a bunch of dolts! Well, I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any longer! Or something like that...
But as Neil Young sang... Don't let it get you down, it's only castles burning...

I've been so keyed up about writing this morning regarding the upward revised 1st GDP report, that I've spent the whole letter, just about on just that! But you can see from my talking about it so much that it means something to me, that these things happen for a reason, and the reason is... to keep everyone happy, and from grabbing their shovels and pitchforks and rakes and marching on their respective state house... Oh? What's that you say? People don't do that any longer because they've become so about themselves, that they wouldn't report a crime if it happened in their front lawn? Oh, I don't believe that for one minute! But it sure seems that we, as a people, are heading in that direction, to ignore these types of things, instead of proactively writing or calling one's representatives and giving them a piece of their minds... I'm just saying...


The figures surprised more than a few people.
Maybe the Feds have taken a leaf out of the Chinese playbook and work on the theory that economic stats are what you want them to be.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 6 2019, 07:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Chuck Butler, in his inimitable style, has called a bottom in the PM market.
From his daily Pfenning email


QUOTE
The GATA folks sent me a note yesterday explaining why they believe the COT is telling them the bottom is in for Gold & Silver… Let’s listen to a short piece from the GATA folks… “These positions are reported weekly in the CoT (Commitment of Traders) report issued by COMEX. Followers of this report have seen instances of the Managed Money long positions turning to or near short (or at least ‘bottoming’) and the Commercials short positions nearing nil or even long (or at least ‘bottoming’) preceding substantial market rallies.”
You don’t have to be a Technical guru, or someone who is very aware of the COT reports, all you have to do is to stop and listen to people that see these things for what they are, and that is a rally in Gold & Silver is coming… Is the bottom in? That’s difficult to say, but I would think that given this info, that the bottom if not in, is near an end… I’m just saying!


I love Chucks wriiting, but he has been calling for the PM's to rocket forever.
One day he will be right.

Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 5 2019, 01:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

As Insaid, the vast majority of RPT aircraft already have data up links.
The placement of the antenna is citical, it would not likely be where a Vacuum differential will be.

Your URL links are fine, but don’tmake the connection about why the wifi antenna will create a requirement for monitoring.
I am not aan airline pilot, but have a Commercial Multi engine Intrument rated Pilots license, so have a small interest in these things.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 4 2019, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I don't think Wifi needs CVM.
Virtually all RPT aircraft have pre existing datalinks installed for weather, intra company messages , engine monitoring etc.
WIFI for passengers will not change anything structurally.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 4 2019, 06:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Despite all his denials, Musk and the Tesla board have been forced to go to the market again.


QUOTE
Tesla said Thursday it plans to raise up to $2 billion, with $1.35 billion coming from convertible notes and $650 million from new equity, including a big purchase from CEO Elon Musk.

In a filing, Musk signaled his intent to buy about $10 million of the electric auto maker’s stock in the new offering. The total equity offering is for 2.7 million shares of Tesla. Musk’s purchase would be 41,896 shares. Before the offering, Musk owned about 20% of Tesla’s outstanding shares, worth about $12.6 billion, according to FactSet.

The move comes only a week after Musk deferred on questions about the company raising capital any time soon.

“I don’t think raising capital should be a substitute for making the company operate more effectively,” Musk told shareholders on the company’s quarterly conference call. “I do think there is some merit to raising capital, but this is sort of probably about the right timing.”

Musk was pressed on the topic by Wall Street analysts on the call, since Tesla burned through around $2 billion in cash in the first quarter of 2019
Musk’s purchases have been reliable short-term buy signals for the stock, according to InsiderScore.com. Following the last five purchases by Musk, the shares were higher on average by 41% in the next three months, according to InsiderScore.

Tesla shares have been under pressure lately, down nearly 30% this year. The stock’s surge following the filing came from “the fact that they ripped off the Band-Aid and decided to raise the capital,” Dan Ives, managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC.

“There was growing fears that this company was going to need incremental cash going to the second half of the year. For the first time, they listened to investors and the math doesn’t lie in terms of what they needed to do,” Ives said. “Now there’s a relief because the liquidity issue and the finance concern could be put to rest in the near term.”
.



Don't normally rely on CNBC for accurate nes, but here it is anyway.

I find it instructive that share purchases by Musk cause an upward spike in the share price.
On the surface of it, buying $10 mill worth of shares seems like a healthy endorsement.
However, for guys like Musk, $10 mill is equivalent to his lunch money.
10 mill in a 2 bill investment is about 0.05%.

Mick the cynic
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 4 2019, 06:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

And that USA market just keeps on surprising.
From Bloombergs

QUOTE
The rally in U.S. stocks picked up pace after the long-awaited jobs report boosted optimism in the world’s largest economy.

The S&P 500 Index rose the most in a month as data showed the labor market can support growth without sparking inflation -- giving cover to the Federal Reserve’s patient stance. The dollar fell and Treasuries were little changed. The Nasdaq-100 Index climbed to a new record as Tesla Inc. raised $2.35 billion through debt and stock offerings, while Warren Buffett told CNBC that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has been buying Amazon.com Inc. shares.


and a bit more

QUOTE
The U.S. jobs report had something for everyone on Friday, bolstering views that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch but not by enough to revive inflation.

Surprisingly strong payroll gains of 263,000 in April and the lowest unemployment rate since 1969 calmed some fears that a recession could be brewing. Meanwhile, the lack of a surge in wages kept alive speculation on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve will still be forced to cut interest rates.
While some analysts labeled it a “Goldilocks” report for being neither too hot nor too cold, traders maintained bets the Fed will lower rates by mid-2020, and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said he thinks the central bank will eventually make a reduction. For now, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely feel validated in having resisted such pressure.

U.S. stocks advanced, trading near a record, while Treasury yields and the dollar retreated, reflecting the cross-currents facing investors.

“It shows an economy that’s still looking to add labor and continue to expand,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Corp. She said there’s no need for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates, though the lack of price pressure suggests “there is a little more slack in the labor market than perhaps people had been giving credit to.”
The gain in payrolls exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a fresh 49-year low of 3.6 percent while annual average hourly earnings growth was unchanged at 3.2 percent, below projections.

The lower unemployment reading was due in part to a factor economists don’t always see as a healthy sign: The participation rate, or share of working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 62.8 percent from 63 percent.

AS usual, the economists were wrong on the guesses they made.
Do not understand how these people can keep their jobs.

Be interesting to see what happens here in OZ on Monday.
Commodities up, gold and silver up.
Might be a good Monday.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 3 2019, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Touched 5 handle this morning.
Been a gradual rise since March.
Added to my small position to make it a medium position.
Bit of a gamble I know, it may not hold above 5, but willing to take a small risk.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 1 2019, 10:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yikes, down 27% today
No announcement.
Bet they get a note from the headmaster.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

From Blacksheeps quote below

QUOTE
The data were released on Monday during a media briefing held by the National Energy Administration. The installed capacity of hydropower stations, wind power stations, photovoltaic power stations and biomass power stations in 2018 reached 352,000 MW, 184,000 MW, 174,000 MW, and 17,810 MW respectively, growing 2.5 percent, 12.4 percent, 34 percent and 20.7 percent year-on-year.


Interesting that they include biomass. Although it is certainly renewable, converting biomass to Energy typically requires burning and the release of CO2.
I was always under the impression that the shift away from fossil fuels was driven by Climate Change, which in turn is driven by CO2.

From something called Vettenfalls

QUOTE
Biomass is a renewable energy source and can be anything from energy crops to agricultural or forestry residues and biogenic waste. Biomass can be used to produce both heat and electricity. It plays a key role in reducing CO2 emissions from existing coal power plants by co-firing and producing green eat. h


Not sure how it reduces CO2, and even less sure about green heat.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 06:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Spot on EB, For those old enough to remember the heady days of 1980's when Japanese buyers paid ridiculous prices for Gold Coast property, its a sense of deja vu all over again.
And it all ended in tears.
History is truly great teacher. Beware the person who says "this time its different".

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

There are plenty of construction workers employed in areas other than housing.

One of my sons was telling me that he is inundated with engineering work because so many tradies are only taking short term jobs cos they all want to get on the Tunnel Project in Melbourne.
Its a union dominated site where the money is good, the hours are good (especially if the union says down tools because its too hot, too cold or too wet) and its going to last a long time.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Aus is about to enter a gold production recession according to S & P global Market intelligence.
from ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Australia is on the edge of a "production cliff" and could slip from second to fourth on a list of the world's biggest gold producing nations by 2024, mining analysts have warned.


A research analyst says Australia's biggest gold mines are getting older and not enough new discoveries are being made to replace them
He predicts global gold production will be in decline from 2022
The CEO of the Perth Mint says a significant fall in Australian gold production is highly unlikely
Behind only China, Australia's gold mines will produce an estimated 10.7 million ounces this year — the equivalent of about $19.2 billion worth of the precious metal.
But analysts predict Canada and Russia will overtake Australia, with production to fall more than 40 per cent to 6.3 million ounces over the next five years.
With the Australian dollar gold price trading near historic highs of about $1,820 an ounce, that could potentially represent about $8 billion in lost production.
Ageing mines 'running out of gold'
Canadian research analyst Chris Galbraith, of S&P Global Market Intelligence, said Australia's biggest gold mines were getting older and not enough new discoveries were being made to replace them.
"Those have been great mines, they've had excellent lives, but nevertheless all good things must eventually come to a close and they are running out of gold," Mr Galbraith said.
Global gold output has increased 40 per cent since 2008, with production hitting 107.3 million ounces last year.
A new record high of 109.6 million ounces is expected to be reached this year, with China contributing just under 12 million ounces.
Research dismissed by Perth Mint
Most of Australia's miners send their gold to Perth Mint for refining — about 350 tonnes of gold every year.
Perth Mint CEO Richard Hayes said a significant fall in Australian gold production was highly unlikely.
"Every year I go to conferences where I see people putting up graphs which show a production cliff, where all of a sudden in the next year or two or three, there's a massive drop off," Mr Hayes said.

In the quarter of a century since I've been here I certainly haven't seen any evidence of any of those predictions ever coming true.
"Australia is the second largest producer of gold and has the world's largest known gold reserves, so I would be very, very surprised if there's this production cliff we're all going to fall off in five years' time."


That's the problem with predictions, some people just won't believe them!.


Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Excellent 3rd quarter results. Big increase in free cash flow, made some profits, hopefully see some big jumps in Share price.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 07:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

According to the Vatican Nerws, the Pope is sending half a mill to the people trying to cross into the US from Mexico.

From Vatican News

QUOTE
Pope Francis has donated 500,000 dollars to assist migrants in Mexico. The funds, from the Peter’s Pence collections, will be distributed among 27 projects promoted by sixteen Mexican dioceses and religious congregations, which requested assistance in continuing to provide food, lodging, and basic necessities to the migrants.

US border closed
According to a statement from Peter’s Pence, “In recent months, thousands of migrants have arrived in Mexico, having travelled more than 4,000 kilometres on foot and with makeshift vehicles from Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. Men and women, often with young children, flee poverty and violence, hoping for a better future in the United States. However, the US border remains closed to them.”

Diminished aid and media coverage
In particular, the aid is intended to assist the more than 75,000 people who arrived in Mexico in 2018, in six migrant caravans. “All these people were stranded, unable to enter the United States, without a home or livelihood”, the statement reads. “The Catholic Church hosts thousands of them in hotels within the dioceses or religious congregations, providing basic necessities, from housing to clothing”.

Although a great deal of attention was focused on the caravans at the time, the Peter’s Pence statement notes that “media coverage of this emergency has been decreasing, and as a result, aid to migrants by the government and private individuals has also decreased”.


Not sure if Trump will appreciate the popes intervention, but hey, it could be entertaining.
Perhaps the pop cold do a Jacinta Ahern and offer to take them all as refugees into the Vatican.
Mick

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 29 2019, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Talk about Bizarre!.
From ABC News

QUOTE
Industry leaders are celebrating the approval of a $250 million gas import terminal in New South Wales which is tipped to meet the majority of the state's gas needs and secure thousands of manufacturing jobs.

Key points:
$250m gas import terminal approved for construction at Port Kembla
Experts say hub will shore up state's gas supply and create thousands of jobs
Deputy Premier says project could affect the need for coal seam gas
The NSW Government announced it had given the green light for the project on Monday, which would involve building a new berth at Port Kembla, south of Sydney, to house a floating liquid natural gas (LNG) handling facility.

A consortium backed by billionaire Andrew Forrest and Japanese energy giants is behind the project, and will be subject to conditions aimed at minimising impacts of dredging in the harbour, as well as regulating air and water discharges during construction.

"We've heard from manufacturers about the cost of energy, especially around gas," NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro said.
While it is widely considered a gamechanger in the way gas is accessed in the NSW market, it remains unclear whether the importation of gas will negate the need for domestic coal seam gas (CSG) production.

Gas company Santos is awaiting approval for its highly controversial Narrabri Gas Project in the state's north west, and Mr Barilaro said a final decision would be made on it later this year.

"Coal seam gas is a form of gas, [that] in its extraction … does make gas a little bit more expensive, so there are other arguments — not only the impacts it will have on aquifers," Mr Barilaro said.

"The reality here today is we want to see gas here in the New South Wales market, be it CSG, be it liquified natural gas that comes through pipelines from the Bass Strait."


If the other states ban CSg, fracking, onshorer/offshore exploration, where in the hell do they think this import terminal will get its gas?? From other countries?

We sit on huge amounts of petroleum products but laud the spending of billions on a import terminal.


Balmy!

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 26 2019, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Aggh, another economic Genius telling us how to fix our ailing economy.

QUOTE
The RBA showering Australian households with money from above may sound like a desperate move, but it is one worthy of consideration according to the economics team at the big investment bank Citi.

Key points:
Citi economists argue "helicopter money" in the form of cash payments to households would stimulate the economy and solve the RBA's inflation problem
The analysts argues this would give the RBA more bang for its buck given interest rates are already low
The money could be raised by the RBA "buying" perpetual bonds from the Federal Government that would not need to be repaid and the proceeds given to households
Rather than slashing interest rates to zero, or below — a ploy adopted by several big central banks — Citi argues the RBA would be better off embracing the unconventional policy of "helicopter money".

"It could take the form of government cash handouts to households for spending, financed by a permanent increase in RBA money supply," Citi's chief Australian economist Paul Brennan said.

"Unlike negative interest rate and quantitative easing policies, helicopter money can be designed to boost economic efficiency [e.g. lower unemployment] whilst limiting negative spill-overs to other areas like financial system stability [e.g. asset bubble risks] and distributional equity [e.g. wealth inequality]," Mr Brennan wrote in research note.

"Helicopter money" was an idea floated by Nobel economics prize laureate and free-market advocate Milton Friedman in the late 1960s.

It was later applied, in a rather disparaging way, to former Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke, who received the sobriquet "Helicopter Ben" from critics of his quantitative easing (QE) and money printing policies to bail the US out of the global financial crisis.

Why no price rises are bad

It may sound good for prices to remain steady, but it can be terrible for the economy and most households, explains Stephen Long.
At its most basic, helicopter money is used by a central bank wanting to drive up inflation and a stagnant economy's output.

The extra money floating around in an economy, in theory, would increase household spending, kick the broader economy up a gear and ultimately drive inflation back up to a central bank's target.


Source ABC NEWS

Its a nice irony that when you take the leading e and mid word n out of Economic you end up with Comic.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 26 2019, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Chuck Butlers writing style can be a bit irritating at times (ok, a LOT irritating at times), but occasionally amongst the dross are a few gems.


QUOTE
Or, here's your snippet: "Since I first wrote about private equity’s looting and ultimate devastation of Mervyn’s (“On Private Equity and Real Estate” September 2012, behind paywall), retailer after retailer has been similarly gutted. Payless Shoes, Toys ‘R’ Us, Gymboree, Sears Holding, Mattress Firm and Radio Shack — all companies at one point owned or controlled by private equity firms — have since filed Chapter 11.

In fact, Debtwire, a financial news service, calculates that about forty percent of all US retail bankruptcies in the last three years were private equity backed.

How do the private equiteers do it? Simple, the leveraged buyout. The LBO is the financial world’s pick and roll, that is, a highly effective play that is difficult to counter, especially if the PE firm takes the prudent first step of bribing its intended victim’s CEO into going along with their acquisition.

In short, the PE firm pays top dollar for a given retailer, often even overpaying, but using as little equity and as much debt as it possibly can. It then improves the company’s profitability by cost-cutting beyond prudence and, as with Debenhams, says, “What a good boy am I,” rewarding itself with a major dividend, often recovering not only its entire initial investment, but a substantial profit to boot."


40% of all us retail bankruptcies were Private equity backed.

That is a damming statistic. It gives some good ammunition to the pushers of the "capitalism needs to be shut down" meme.

the full article can be found HERE

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 26 2019, 07:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

That ole USA market just refuses to die.
The PMI consensus forecast was beaten again.
The actual has now been in positive territory for three years.

New orders were well up , employment in manufacturing was up as well as prices.
The only slow downs were in inventories (good), backlog of orders (good and bad), export orders (bad), and supplier deliveries (bad).

The PMI has come off a bit since the highs of last year, but those figures were the highest in over ten years. Still bubbling along.
10 year graph of the PMI gives a better idea, but sharecafe does not allow insertion of dynamic images.

10 year graph


Source Trading economics

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2019, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

And in another development in the block cain practical usage meme comes this news.

From coingeek

QUOTE
A new app has been launched for recording local weather and climate data on the Bitcoin SV (BSV) blockchain, in the latest example of an app developer using OP_RETURN transactions in a practical use case.

The app, WeatherSV, was put together by the team behind Australian IT services firm FNQComputers, which announced the launch of the app on Twitter. According to the team, the automated weather channels can be activated from 40,000 live stations and the climate data can be stored on the BSV chain forever.
The app provides a web interface for users to begin recording weather data on the blockchain, covering a comprehensive data set including temperature, humidity, wind speed and air pressure.

Notably, the tweet references notable Bitcoin developer Unwriter, nChain Global and Money Button for their contributions to the project. According to the WeatherSV website, the service relies on bitdb, datapay, Money Button, and Open Weather Map, as well as the BSV blockchain.

WeatherSV allows users to record weather data for their local area, written immutably to the BSV blockchain as a permanent data record. The data is indexed for easy retrieval, and can be searched as required.

With some 40,000 live weather stations covered in the network, the app offers potentially wide ranging access to local weather data. New channels can be created for A$5 (about $4), the A$1/month (about $0.71) to maintain the feed, which writes the data immutably to the blockchain as a permanent, searchable record.

So far, the site has already activated channels for Saint Johns, Antigua and Barbuda; Melbourne and Geelong West in Australia; Toronto and Vancouver in Canada; Seoul, South Korea; Panama; Mandalay, Myanmar; Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Oslo, Norway; Hangzhou, China; Rosario, Argentina; Santiago, Chile; Beersheba and Tel Aviv in Israel; and Algonquin, Carol Stream, Miami, Minneapolis, Newport Beach, Rogers, Prairieville, and Keene in the United States.

The app demonstrates the capabilities of developments on Bitcoin SV, which benefits from being the most effective environment for blockchain developers, both technologically and practically.

The WeatherSV site, which went live on Wednesday, is the latest app to be powered by the Bitcoin SV blockchain. It comes at a time of heightened development activity in and around the BSV ecosystem, with developers, merchants and consumers increasingly preferring BSV to alternative platforms.

With minimal processing fees, fast transaction times and superior technology to other blockchains, BSV remains the platform of choice for innovative app developers.


Interesting from two perspectives.
1. its an Australian firm ' from Cairns no less.
2. the data cannot be manipulated .

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2019, 02:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Up another 2% today.
Getting close to that 5..
Have no idea why it is trending up, but heck, I'll take it.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2019, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Hell no, I have no idea If/when.
I am no better than any of the other predictors of stocks.
Statistically, I am bound to get something right sometime/
I will tell you AFTER the event.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 15 2019, 02:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Boral slowly making a bit of a comeback.
A close above the 5 handle would be a nice indicator.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2019, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

That cute little sheep avatar is Shawn the Sheep. Kids animated TV show that grandparents watch with the little tackers.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 14 2019, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Did you take up any of the PE1 offer Nipper??
I took a small punt on it, nothing outrageous.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 12 2019, 02:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

SLR and RMS coming off the boil.
Will be looking to re enter if either can get below 70 cents.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 12 2019, 02:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Been in a steep downward trend since that 30 buck high of early march.
Approaching low of September last year.
keen on this stock, just need to wait till the bottom is confirmed.

mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 12 2019, 01:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Obviously the people "in the know" must have got it wrong.
Down 21% today.
Chart dowes not look pretty.
Been in a generally downward trend since the 15 cents high of May lat year.
Pretty big volume ass well.
Not looking good for my money.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 12 2019, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I am a fairly avid reader of the ABC News site.
Its a just a pity it is so Sydney Centric.
Despite having my location in Victoria, every morning when I check in, one of the most prominent items is “Live: NSW Now”.
I guess they think that NSW is so important , that everyone else outdide that state needs to know whats happening there.
This is a recent phenomenon, and when I sent a feedback to ABC , the response I got was nothing. (at least not in the three days since I put my feedback comment in).

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 11 2019, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, the end result is a bit underwhelming.





Looks like a fuzzy donut.
However, if we are being truly technically truthfull, it may not exist this morning, or could be extremely different from the photograph.
Given that the object is some 55 million light years away, the radiation used to create the image is some 55 million years old.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 4 2019, 07:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yesterday on the country hour on ABC (yes, some old country farts still listen to it), the reporter announced for the first time ever, that block chain had been used as a payment
for a parcel of wool bound for China.
It seems that blockchain, complex as it is, is still easier than organising legitimate letters of credit.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 4 2019, 07:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I wonder if the MSM will see much importance in this announcement.

QUOTE
This could be the biggest announcement ever in the history of astronomy. Announcement and video follows.


Artist conception of what a photograph of the event horizon around a black hole may look like.
Of all the weird stuff that exists in the universe, such as quasars, pulsars, magnetars, neutron stars, red giants and white dwarfs, one of the most bizarre, and the “holy grail” for scientists to image, is the black hole. Black holes were first identified in Einstein’s theory of general relativity. These gravitational monsters create a gravity well so deep and so steep that they consume everything near them. The gravity is so intense that even light can’t escape. While science already knows quite a bit about black holes, and have posited that one exists at the center of our galaxy since the mid 1970s, there have never been any photographs of black holes. After all, how can you photograph something that sucks in all the light around it?

The answer? Look for the event horizon.

That lack of photography may be about to change on April 10th, 2019. From the EHT webpage:

The European Commission, European Research Council, and the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) project will hold a press conference to present a groundbreaking result from the EHT.

EHT Webpage


While idly reading up on Event Horizons and black holes, I found the interesting tidbit that if the earth were to be compressed sufficiently so as to be about 9 centimetres in diameter, it would become a black hole.
Very useful info for our next trivial pursuit night.

Mick


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 2 2019, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yeah, I am a sucker for science.
i also hold.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 2 2019, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

IGO released the reporton trials for nickel sulphate conversion.
Looks a bit more than promising.
Thought the market might have been up a bit more , but perhaps it was already factored into price.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2019, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Up 12% on 2 mill volume today.
Wonder what they know that the general public doesn't know yet??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2019, 08:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

US oil exports may be looking at a slowdown.

QUOTE
The complex web of U.S. pipelines, tanks and export terminals that’s helped make America the world’s top oil producer is causing a headache for some crude buyers.

As various types of crude pass through the supply chain from inland shale fields spanning Texas to North Dakota, they risk picking up impurities before reaching Asia -- the world’s biggest oil-consuming region. Specifically, refiners are worried about the presence of problematic metals as well as a class of chemical compounds known as oxygenates, which can affect the quality and type of fuel they produce.

Two refiners in South Korea -- the top buyer of U.S. seaborne supply -- have rejected cargoes in recent months due to contamination that makes processing difficult. Growing North American output from dozens of fields pushes everything from highly-volatile oil to sticky residue through shared tributaries and trunk pipes. Smaller carriers then take cargoes from shallow-water ports to giant supertankers in the Gulf of Mexico for hauling to far-away buyers.


Full article HERE

It may stabilise the oil price fall for a while, and negate the need for the Saudis to cut oil production.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2019, 08:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

At some point in time, all these experts will finally wake up to the fact that interest rates are not the powerfull lever that some think it is. (Assuming it ever was a powerful lever).
Look at the experience in Japan , USA and Europe with low or below zero interest rates.
How will lowering interest rates (twice) improve things in OZ??
The two things keeping us going are Government spending (at all three levels), and immigration.
Interest rates don't seem to affect government spending much, and immigrants are not borrowing money when they first arrive.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2019, 08:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

NAh, its a COW.
One of the leftovers from the ill fated adventure with the dairy in Goulburn Valley.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 28 2019, 08:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I have sold half of my RMS and SLR shares in the past two days.
Both of them are well over 50% higher than when I bought in, so will not complain if they go higher.
But will certainly be looking for some opportunties if there is a pull back.
Added SBM after its big fall.
Still bullish on gold.
Pity silver is still languishing.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 27 2019, 02:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Perhaps if they offered better rates on long term deposits they might get some more capital.
So called investor rates from NAB at barely 0.5%.
Thievin bastards.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 27 2019, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

LYC Board has rejected proposal out of hand.
Now to sit back and see who wins.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 26 2019, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I bought in last Friday during the crash.
Didn't get the lowest price, but more than happy with the discount..
It produces gold, it ells gold, so its a goer as far as I am concerned.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 18 2019, 03:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Dunno about that.
Trump has shown already that he is willing to talk to anyone who wants to make a deal.
However, he has also shown that he will walk away if the deal is not to his liking.
I am betting Xi won't make it to America at all, cos Trump is going to demand a deal good for America (where America means Trump).
Xi has shown that his ego rivals trumps, and I can't see him agreeing to much.
But I could be wrong.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2019, 12:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

The wonders of Graphene.


QUOTE
But now MIT researchers have observed this seemingly implausible mode of heat transport, known as “second sound,” in a rather commonplace material: graphite — the stuff of pencil lead.

At temperatures of 120 kelvin, or -240 degrees Fahrenheit, they saw clear signs that heat can travel through graphite in a wavelike motion. Points that were originally warm are left instantly cold, as the heat moves across the material at close to the speed of sound. The behavior resembles the wavelike way in which sound travels through air, so scientists have dubbed this exotic mode of heat transport “second sound.”

The new results represent the highest temperature at which scientists have observed second sound. What’s more, graphite is a commercially available material, in contrast to more pure, hard-to-control materials that have exhibited second sound at 20 K, (-420 F) — temperatures that would be far too cold to run any practical applications.

The discovery, published in Science, suggests that graphite, and perhaps its high-performance relative, graphene, may efficiently remove heat in microelectronic devices in a way that was previously unrecognized.

“There’s a huge push to make things smaller and denser for devices like our computers and electronics, and thermal management becomes more difficult at these scales,” says Keith Nelson, the Haslam and Dewey Professor of Chemistry at MIT. “There’s good reason to believe that second sound might be more pronounced in graphene, even at room temperature. If it turns out graphene can efficiently remove heat as waves, that would certainly be wonderful.”Normally, heat travels through crystals in a diffusive manner, carried by “phonons,” or packets of acoustic vibrational energy. The microscopic structure of any crystalline solid is a lattice of atoms that vibrate as heat moves through the material. These lattice vibrations, the phonons, ultimately carry heat away, diffusing it from its source, though that source remains the warmest region, much like a kettle gradually cooling on a stove.

The kettle remains the warmest spot because as heat is carried away by molecules in the air, these molecules are constantly scattered in every direction, including back toward the kettle. This “back-scattering” occurs for phonons as well, keeping the original heated region of a solid the warmest spot even as heat diffuses away.

However, in materials that exhibit second sound, this back-scattering is heavily suppressed. Phonons instead conserve momentum and hurtle away en masse, and the heat stored in the phonons is carried as a wave. Thus, the point that was originally heated is almost instantly cooled, at close to the speed of sound.

Previous theoretical work in Chen’s group had suggested that, within a range of temperatures, phonons in graphene may interact predominately in a momentum-conserving fashion, indicating that graphene may exhibit second sound. Last year, Huberman, a member of Chen’s lab, was curious whether this might be true for more commonplace materials like graphite.

Building upon tools previously developed in Chen’s group for graphene, he developed an intricate model to numerically simulate the transport of phonons in a sample of graphite. For each phonon, he kept track of every possible scattering event that could take place with every other phonon, based upon their direction and energy. He ran the simulations over a range of temperatures, from 50 K to room temperature, and found that heat might flow in a manner similar to second sound at temperatures between 80 and 120 K.

Huberman had been collaborating with Duncan, in Nelson’s group, on another project. When he shared his predictions with Duncan, the experimentalist decided to put Huberman’s calculations to the test.

“This was an amazing collaboration,” Chen says. “Ryan basically dropped everything to do this experiment, in a very short time.”

“We were really in the express lane with this,” Duncan adds.

Upending the norm

Duncan’s experiment centered around a small, 10-square-millimeter sample of commercially available graphite.

Using a technique called transient thermal grating, he crossed two laser beams so that the interference of their light generated a “ripple” pattern on the surface of a small sample of graphite. The regions of the sample underlying the ripple’s crests were heated, while those that corresponded to the ripple’s troughs remained unheated. The distance between crests was about 10 microns.

Duncan then shone onto the sample a third laser beam, whose light was diffracted by the ripple, and its signal was measured by a photodetector. This signal was proportional to the height of the ripple pattern, which depended on how much hotter the crests were than the troughs. In this way, Duncan could track how heat flowed across the sample over time.

If heat were to flow normally in the sample, Duncan would have seen the surface ripples slowly diminish as heat moved from crests to troughs, washing the ripple pattern away. Instead, he observed “a totally different behavior” at 120 K.

Rather than seeing the crests gradually decay to the same level as the troughs as they cooled, the crests actually became cooler than the troughs, so that the ripple pattern was inverted — meaning that for some of the time, heat actually flowed from cooler regions into warmer regions.

“That’s completely contrary to our everyday experience, and to thermal transport in almost every material at any temperature,” Duncan says. “This really looked like second sound. When I saw this I had to sit down for five minutes, and I said to myself, ‘This cannot be real.’ But I ran the experiment overnight to see if it happened again, and it proved to be very reproducible.”

According to Huberman’s predictions, graphite’s two-dimensional relative, graphene, may also exhibit properties of second sound at even higher temperatures approaching or exceeding room temperature. If this is the case, which they plan to test, then graphene may be a practical option for cooling ever-denser microelectronic devices.

“This is one of a small number of career highlights that I would look to, where results really upend the way you normally think about something,” Nelson says. “It’s made more exciting by the fact that, depending on where it goes from here, there could be interesting applications in the future. There’s no question from a fundamental point of view, it’s really unusual and exciting.”

ya gotta love science, as distinct from modelling.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 15 2019, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Kouloulas is not one of my favs when it comes to macro economics.
QUOTE
Get set for lower interest rates.

That will be great news if you have a mortgage, terrific if you have a business overdraft and fantastic if you are a soon-to-be first home buyer looking to take advantage of the current lull in the housing market to step into the market.

It will not be good news if you are relying on interest income to enhance your cash flow with terms deposit rates set to fall even further in response to the lowering in official interest rates.

Such is the recent run of economic news that lower interest rates are almost inevitable over the next few months.

Headlining the bad economic news was the fact that GDP per capita fell by 0.1 per cent in the September quarter last year and fell a further 0.2 per cent in the December quarter. This heralded a per capita GDP recession or two consecutive quarters of decline.

Disconcertingly, the per capita GDP recession may not end here given the way the March quarter has kicked off, with flat retail sales, a slump in new building approvals and weakness in various business surveys.

In simple terms, the economy is in need of resuscitation in the form of some policy stimulus to ensure it gets off the floor and can start to grow at a strong and sustained pace.

It has been evident for three years that the Reserve Bank of Australia has missed its inflation target by a wide margin and that there was scope for it to reduce interest rates if other economic conditions deteriorated.

Lower interest rates will see inflation higher and if there is enough stimulus from lower interest rates, the RBA will get inflation back to target.


Perhaps he missed the experiment in Jpan , Europe and the USA with low interest rates.
Whatever the outcomes of dropping interest rates , inflation was not one of them.
Economics. 101 .
Fail.
Mick


  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 07:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Given that the GDP per capita is falling, one can only assume that most of the "capita" arriving in recent times are non productive, or the population overall has become less productive.
Neither is a great outcome.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

In the last rounds of Shield matches where the red Dukes ball was used, bowlers, particulary fast bowlers, ,have dominated.
In the VIC v NSW, spin bowlers took 8 wickets, fast bowlers 32.
No centuries, highest score of 50.
QLD v SOA, , spin did a little better where they got ten wickets, the rest to fas bowlers.
And the highest score was 42.

In the WA v TAS game, its the batsmen who fared a little better.
4 scores over 50 in the three innings so far.

Hopefully the players in the ODI series get a bit of experience with the dreaded Dukes before hitting England.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807



From Bloombergs


QUOTE
For years, China’s biggest borrowers relied on accounting alchemy to prop up their balance sheets. Those days are over.

Corporate perpetual bonds have almost always been recognized by Chinese auditors as equity, not debt. That enabled state-owned enterprises to borrow billions of dollars without it showing up that way.

As part of its effort to shine a light on hidden debt, the Ministry of Finance earlier this year announced changes to its treatment of such securities. Now more than $360 billion worth of bonds could be reclassified as liabilities.

Of the 1,227 perpetual notes outstanding, almost all are issued by central or regional SOEs. It comes as little surprise that more than 70 percent of these issues get a pristine AAA rating.

Closing the Loophole
New issues of perpetuals fell off a cliff after the Ministry of Finance announced changes to their accounting treatment in late Januar

Perpetuals tend to have a call option, allowing the issuer to repay its debt in three to five years. If the borrower chooses not to do so, it has to reset its coupon rate, often paying 3 percentage points to 5 percentage points more. As a result, most chose to avoid the steeper interest costs: Of the 81 issues that have hit their call dates since issuance took off in 2014, roughly 90 percent decided to retire their debt.

In its announcement on Jan. 28, the Ministry of Finance decided these securities should be rightfully classified as fixed income. Perpetuals that have the same credit ranking as senior debt, or a step-up coupon rate much higher than the industry standard, also will need to be reclassified, the government said.

Over the past three years, loss-making SOEs from power generators to infrastructure builders embraced perpetuals. The latest accounting change could affect 80 percent of issuers’ leverage profiles, according to Guosheng Securities Co. China Communications Construction Co., for instance, which incurred a $7.7 billion free-cash-flow loss in the year ended September, would have seen its net debt-to-equity ratio jump to 121 percent from 92 percent.

Landslide
Some issuers pack their balance sheets with perpetuals. For about 18 percent of them, such bonds comprise at least 5 percent of total assets


Bond traders are now repositioning. They’ve been busily buying distressed dollar issues from China Minmetals Corp. and China Huaneng Group Co. with the expectation the companies will call their bonds, now that they’ve lost this convenient equity treatment.


The Ministry of Finance’s cleanup is also paving the way for China’s banking system to replenish capital. Just look at Bank of China Ltd.’s offering in late January, the first perpetual bonds from a Chinese lender. The People’s Bank of China established a new facility called the central bank bill swap that aims to boost bank liquidity through this channel. Insurance companies can also buy these bonds, China’s banking regulator said.

Now that perpetual bonds have become a new tool of the central bank, the market will no longer have room for the likes of troubled power generators and railway builders — even if they perform a public service at Beijing’s bidding. Meanwhile, the private enterprises farther down the totem pole simply lose an option they never really had.


Will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Mick



  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
We recently learned that Australia might be in a per-capita recession, which is why each Australian household is finding it so tough at the moment. Inflation and wages growth are making things difficult, although the total GDP of Australia is still growing.



Since when has this metric meant anything?
I did a quick google search, and apart from one mention of South Africa, could not find many references to anywhere else but OZ.
The last time OZ had a per capita recession was in 2006 in the height of a mining boom, with budget surpluses, impending tax cuts and nil debt.
Wish we could go back to those halcyon days of percapita recession.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Can't wait to see the Al Jazeera underground report on how the Aussies fixed these matches by playing really well .

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 9 2019, 05:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Good win by Oz last night.
Kawaja played very well.
Finch finally comes good.
Marsh didn’t.
Lucky Maxwell had another quick fire cameo.
Zampa and Lyon bowled better than Indian spinners.
Richardson and Cummins outstanding.
interesting outcome from the review by Finch to his LBW.
Given that the ball tracking was way off beam, having the ball pitch around leg stump when it obviously pitched midlle to off stump, showed there are still glitches.
I would have thought that given the obvious uncertainty, Oz should not hve lost their one review because of it.At best the off field ump could call was on field umpire call.
Might have saved Hanscombe later on.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 09:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I might have agreed with you if they got rid of all the refunds, but it is targeted at selffunded retirees.
The inustry and retail super funds will not lose out.
A purely political ploy.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 05:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
China's export effort appears to have finally cracked under sustained pressure from US tariffs and a slowdown in global trade
QUOTE


Key points:

China's trade surplus with the US halved as tougher tariffs took their toll
Weak imports point to a domestic economy cooling rapidly
China's appetite for iron ore hit a 10 month low
Exports in US dollar terms fell 20.7 per cent in February, far worse than a 5 per cent drop the market had forecast.

Imports fell by 5.2 per cent, which was also far weaker than expected.

The collapse in both domestic and external demand is bad news for Australian exporters relying on China, and the region, as their most lucrative source of income.

China's overall trade surplus for the month came to $US4.1 billion — wafer thin by its usual standards, and far narrower than the almost $US30 billion forecast.

The impact of US tariffs can be seen in the politically sensitive reading of the bilateral trade balance.

China's surplus with the US almost halved from $US27.3 billion in January to $US14.7 billion last month.

It is a sudden turnaround given data released by US customs earlier this week reported the deficit with China blew out by 19 per cent in December.

Overall, the US recorded a $US621 billion trade gap with China in 2018 — the largest since 2008.



Now thats interesting!
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 02:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Its ok EB, it wasn't at the same time.
Up here in the GV, we have lots of snakes
I generally ignore them, but I ignored one too many when I stepped on it.
Gave me a nip through my socks. I saw the puncture marks and lgot my wife to mandage me up and headed for the hospital.
Spent a night in hospital feeling ordinary. But the doctors only give you anti venene if your breathing gets bad or lose consciousness.
They reckon the treatment can sometimes be worse than the bite.
I never got that bad that I needed anti venene, but geez I felt crook for a few days. Took me at least a week to get over it.
The redbacks are everywhere. The first time I got bitten, I dint even know about it till about an hour later.
I was shifting stuff to get an old pump out of the shed and must have left my fingers to close to one.
Fingers swelled up and was pretty sore, but nowhere near as bad as the snake bite.
Got other bites in subsequent years, but apart from swelling and redness, I got over them pretty quickly.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

What the Hell does Maxwell have to do to become a friend of the cricket establishment??

from Criinfo
QUOTE
Australia's coach Justin Langer has brushed off Glenn Maxwell's suggestion he wants to bat higher up the order in the ODI team following his match-winning displays in the Twenty20 series victory over India, pointedly stating that management would "do what's best for the team" in their penultimate assignment before the World Cup in England.

Maxwell was the difference between the two sides in Vizag and Bengaluru, with a pair of destructive innings that demonstrated his potential to be a key player for Australia when granted a specific and consistent role. But his No. 4 spot in the T20 team seems unlikely to be replicated in the 50-over format, after he batted at No. 7 in the recent series against India in Australia.

When asked about whether he wanted a promotion, Maxwell outlined how it was difficult to play hard-hitting knocks from low down the batting order in places like India and the UAE, where pitches are slow and low and spinning. Langer, however, seemed set to deliver more tough love for Maxwell, asking for a consistent run of good scores before he entertains any changes.

"We'll wait and see," Langer told reporters in Bengaluru. "We'll do what's best for the team I reckon. We'll see how we go.
However Langer was adamant that the captain Aaron Finch will be persevered with despite his struggle to switch between formats upon his promotion to, and then dropping from, the Test team in the absence of the banned David Warner.


"He's such a good player, such a good person, captain of the team, we know he'll come good," Langer said. "We've just got to keep giving him plenty of care and support. We know he'll come good. There's no more destructive player in the world - we talk about Maxy, Marcus Stoinis, a number of our players who can be so destructive - but when he's going, he is as destructive as a player as there is in white-ball cricket.

"We know he'll come good and we'll be patient with him. Another important part about leadership is that he's really consistent. We haven't see any real change in his personality or his attitude around the group, so that's a real credit to him. That's why he is the captain of the team.

"My experience of every captain, the most important thing is they're playing really good cricket. He's got to keep his attention on that. He's got lots of support around him. Like I say, he's such a good person, he's got to be Aaron Finch, be himself. He's doing that. He's one of the nicest people you'll ever meet. We'll just keep encouraging him to be himself. His runs will come, keep encouraging him to be himself and I'm sure he'll come good soon."


I guess Finch does have that level of consistency, its just a pity that its consistently poor.
In his last 10 innings in t20, finch has passed 50 once.
In his last 10 innings, also in T20,Maxwell has scored 1 century and passed 50 in three other occasions.
He is now one of only three players in T20I to have scored three centuries.

Obviously, being a nice person is much better than producing centuries, even though last time that's what Langer asked for.

Too much more of getting the cold shoulder and Maxwell will explode, tell Langer and the cricket establisment where to go, and go make his fortune on the t20 circuit.

Mick




  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Having been bitten by both a brown snake and a red back (the latter more than once), I will take my chances with the redback anytime.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2019, 10:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

And Mr Market NOT Happy with RLE today.
Down 18% on news of 5mill capital raising.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 28 2019, 05:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I am a regular reader of the Australian, and am not one of those subscribers the concept that all members of the Murdoch family are offspring of the devil himself.
Notwithstanding that, I am forced to admit that the SKY News website is just about the worst piece of crap I have ever come across.
Far more opinion and analysis than reporting of the news.
An abject failure.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 28 2019, 04:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yo EB, all the fundamentals are a big negative, but still the AUD hangs in there.
When the capitulation comes, it will savage.
Buying AUD defensive stocks like CTX , CSL, and anything producing gold.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 28 2019, 02:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

And yet despite all this tension between two Nuclear ratbags, and Warren Buffet's prediction of the end of the world as we know it, what does gold do?
It falls. Along with silver and other PM's.
Doesn't make a lot of sense.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 08:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Another useless prediction.
Anyone can make that one.
At least badhairday put a date on his predictions.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 05:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Looks Like Musk is in hot water with the SEC again.
[quote]
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) says a federal court should hold Elon Musk in contempt for violating last year's settlement with the federal agency due to new statements made on Twitter, sending shares of the electric carmaker down 5 per cent in extended trade.

Key points:
Mr Musk agreed last August that any material statements on social media had to first be vetted by Tesla
The SEC argues a February 20 tweet broke this agreement
But Mr Musk says the numbers he tweeted were already available in Tesla earnings transcripts
Mr Musk, Tesla, and the SEC last year settled a lawsuit filed by the federal agency over the chief executive's tweets in August that he planned to take the company private.

As part of that settlement, any material statements made by Mr Musk on social media were to be vetted by the company.

The regulator pointed to this February 19 tweet from Mr Musk
It noted that Mr Musk did not seek or receive preapproval before publishing this tweet, which was inaccurate and disseminated to over 24 million people.

"Musk has thus violated the Court's Final Judgment by engaging in the very conduct that the preapproval provision of the Final Judgment was designed to prevent," the SEC wrote in its motion filed on Monday (local time) in federal court in Manhattan.

Mr Musk subsequently clarified his tweet to say that the "annualised production rate" at end-2019 would probably be about 500,000, with deliveries expected to be about 400,000.

He also went on to defend himself — on Twitter — saying the same figures he quoted in his tweet were available in a Tesla earnings transcript from the end of 2018.

:[/quote
From ABC News
All he has to do is run it past the board, but as usual, he thinks that a shjeer genius like himself should not be constrained by the rules for mere mortals.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Was talking to the US supplier of Aircraft Interiors last night.
He is miles behind schedule because of an increase in orders and having two of his best workers poached by a rival firm.
He had already given them pay rises prior to Christmas, but it seems it wasn't enough.
There are some industries in the US doing well.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 05:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, its now official.
China has effectively banned Australian Coal imports.
China plays by its own rules.
We negotiate in a position of wekkness always.
Perhaps the plan is to come in and buy up all the dead coal extraction companies.

QUOTE
Australian coal producers have suffered another savage hit, with Chinese authorities placing an indefinite ban on imports ahead of a strict new regime of quotas.

Key points:
The ban follows a marked slowdown in processing Australian coking coal imports this year
Exporters are now experiencing similar delays for both coking and thermal coal through other big Chinese ports
Coal is now Australia's most valuable export and China is its biggest market
The Reuters news agency reported customs officers based at the key northern port of Dalian stopped Australian coal imports and would move to cap imports for through their harbours at 12 million tonnes a year.

The move appears political, with only Australian coal being targeted.

Reuters said imports from Russia and Indonesia would not be affected.

News of the ban sent the Australian dollar tumbling in late afternoon trade.

At 6:00pm (AEST) the dollar had tumbled below 71 US cents, having moved above 72 US cents after stronger-than-expected jobs data earlier in the day.

The Dalian custom officers oversee imports through five harbours — Dalian, Bayuquan, Panjin, Dandong and Beiliang — into the heavily industrialised steel-making heart of China's north.

At the moment, the ban is centred on coking coal used in steel making, but the fear is it will spread to other ports and thermal coal exports.



Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 02:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

So when do we buy back in??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807


QUOTE
But anyway I reckon there is more to it than just local brands suffering from competition from foreign operators. In the two big shopping centres I frequent in the ACT there are shopfronts boarded up all over the place. I remember in the months leading into the 1990 recession you could see a wave of shops being vacated in regional cities and suburban centres. It was only when the full force of the recession hit that the effects became manifest on the high street. This time around even A grade retail locations are buckling even though talk of a recession is still only on the margins.


And yet surprisingly, January had a strong growth in full time jobs.



QUOTE
Australian employers have started the year on the hunt for workers, with 39,100 new jobs being created in January.

The surge in recruitment targeted full-time work, with an impressive 65,400 positions added, while part-time work fell by 26,300 jobs.

However, it was not enough to move the unemployment dial, which stayed put at 5 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.

The solid number saw a spike in the Australian dollar which jumped back above 72 US cents.

From ABC News

Given the level of immigration, its no great surprise that the unemployment rate stays the same.
However, one suspects that if the level of immigration were cut, the no of jobs required would also fall.
Would be great to have a free reign to acess the Bureau of Stats database.
Would be a data miners dream. Particularly if one could cross reference it with the ATO database.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I remember doing my dough along with BHP about 15 or 20 years ago on Potash.
It was going to be bigger than Ben Hur.
Still waiting.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 20 2019, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Mr market happy with RLE today, up 21% .
Noice.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2019, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Was talking to the principal of a successful large new vehicle distributorship (Mercedes, Suburu, Izuzu amoung others).
He made the point that in a suburu imprezza, there are over 2250 moving parts.
Most of these are in the engine bay.
An electric vehicle would have less 10% of that figure.
Moving parts have friction, wear over time, and are maintenance intensive.
His next move will be into electric vehicles.
The first part, is installing solar panels on the vast rooftop he has in his showrooms and service/spareparts area.
The next is to install large capacity batteries/capacitors to fast charge electric vehicles.
Any unused DC power will go through inverters to be used in his business or sold into the grid.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2019, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

No worries EB, if you go back further to when we were all convicts, all the trade was with Mother England!
We don't seem to learn from past mistakes.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2019, 03:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Once again, the dangers of relying on China for trade has been demonstrated.

QUOTE
Dozens of vessels carrying Australian coal continue to be in limbo off the coast of China as restrictions on imports are introduced at key ports across the country.

Beijing imposed import restrictions in January, primarily in the north-east of the country, to boost domestic coal prices with no indication of when they might be lifted.

Tania Constable, CEO of the Minerals Council of Australia, said companies were "deeply concerned" about the restrictions and the uncertainty of when they would be lifted.

"We believe an unofficial quota system [has been] employed since the restructure of customs and quarantine administrative arrangements in October 2018," she said.

In 2016, the Chinese government restricted coal miners' working days from 330 to 276 days per year.

This was seen as an attempt to cut back on domestic production of low-grade brown coal and improve the environment and air quality.

Subsequently, imports of higher-grade coal increased, as did the price of coal worldwide.

Rural news in your inbox?
Subscribe for the national headlines of the day.

But by year's end, the working day restrictions had eased and Beijing began to re-exert control over its domestic mining sector.

Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank, said it was during this time Beijing began turning the tap on and off to imports of Australian coal.

"[Chinese] policy on coal has very dramatically shifted over the last three to four years, but particularly over the last year [as] import restrictions have been fiddled with," he said.

"Mid-November is where we saw the most aggressive push towards a policy of capping coal import levels and that was probably the most prominent move, similar to this, we've seen."

How long will it last?
Beijing indicated last year its goal to keep 2018 imports at 2017 levels.

This was not achieved, but led to a steep drop in coal imports in December before surging in January to the highest level in five years, according to figures released by China's General Administration of Customs.

The latest round of restrictions was imposed about a week before the Lunar New Year celebrations, a national holiday for China, which added to the uncertainty.

"There's still a lot of confusion," Mr Dhar said.

"Given the holiday period, it's very difficult to know exactly what's causing this issue and finding the right people to contact."

In the meantime, the thermal coal price at Newcastle port, which accounts for 25 per cent of Australia's thermal coal, is down to its lowest point since May 2018.

What is the impact?
China is heavily reliant upon Australian coking coal, which accounts for approximately 75 per cent of the coal used in Chinese steel production.

China relationship isn't broken

Australia's relationship with China is not in crisis, but no-one would blame you for thinking that, writes Stephen Dziedzic.

But concerns over slowing growth saw steel production in the country slow towards the end of 2018 as profitability collapsed.

Ms Constable said talks were ongoing with the Chinese embassy in Canberra and stressed the negative impact restrictions would have on the industry if allowed to continue.

"The longer these sorts of delays go on, of course it does have an effect overall on production and that has a flow-on effect to other parts of business," she said.

"A lot of discussion is occurring with customers in China and with the traders themselves, and plans are being made to try and get to the bottom of it."

Some reports said restrictions would ease in a few weeks, others said a few months.

Ultimately, only time will tell.


Chinese authorities turn the taps on and off as it suits them.
Personally, I would be wary of having the bulk of my income reliant on China.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2019, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
CLSA rates LYC as a Conviction Buy with a $3.50 target - currently SP is $2.15, up 6.44% currently
from their Quarterly


This was only July last year.
Up 13% today.
Something is up.
Still below my low ball bid of 1.88 back then.
Damn lucky i never got taken out, would have been sitting on some losses for a while.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 13 2019, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Pity they didnt give exisring retail shareholders the same deal.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 13 2019, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Again!
But the market did not like it.
I have loaded up some more anyway.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2019, 06:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
Chinese methane emissions are rising at an alarming rate despite recent government regulations aimed at curbing the climate-changing pollutant, a new report has revealed.

A study released in the journal Nature on Tuesday shows a steady growth in China’s methane emissions, primarily from the country’s massive coal mining sector, undermining Beijing’s claims to be leading the world on climate change action.

“Methane emissions in China appear to be increasing, business as usual. We were unable to detect any impact of regulations on the country’s methane emissions,” the report’s lead researcher Scot M. Miller told CNN.

China is among the world’s largest emitters of methane. While methane is less prevalent in the earth’s atmosphere than carbon dioxide, it traps “28 times more heat” according to the Global Carbon Project.

In 2010 the Chinese government enacted a series of new polices requiring methane from coal mining to be captured, or to be converted into carbon dioxide. But scientists found that the policies had failed to curb overall emissions.

China’s annual methane emissions increased by 50% for at least five years after government regulations were passed in 2010. The jump is equivalent to the total emissions of other large nations such as Russia and Brazil.


CNN News

Why do Australia, USA, Europe etc have to not only reduce their emissions, but pay the rest of the world for the privilege courtesy of the Un Climate Fund, when the biggest emitter not only doesn't have to curb theirs, but merrily goes on increasing it?
Because its based on Politics, not science.

Mick




  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2019, 05:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
Make no mistake, Donald Trump kicked off his campaign for 2020 on Tuesday night when he delivered the State of the Union address.

Expect "socialism" to become a very dirty word (if it isn't already).

"Here in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in our country," the President said, adding: "Tonight, we resolve that America will never be a socialist country".



From ABC NEWS



I would have thought that Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, Hugo Chavez and Nicholas Maduro in Argentina, Evo Morales in Bolivia, just to name a few, would have already made Socialism a dirty word in America.

Slightly off topic, Americas latest brightest influencer, the avowedly socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has been rather cruelly nicknamed "Occasional Cortex", in reference to her seemingly talking before thinking.


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 06:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

well, that is it , I'm out.
It may well go up further, but I am not that greedy.
100% gain for six months work.
Wish I could do it more often.

Mck
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 06:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

In the past, I might have accused you guys of looking for conspiracy theories where there are none.
However, given the astounding fact that no criminal charges have been recommended, I can only concur that Hayne was in on the deal.
This is further enforced by his obvious unhappiness at being part of the press conference media bull shit setup.
Even if he didn't think charges would stick, he could have at least sent something to the DPP and let them argue why there should be no prosecutions.
A pox on all their houses.

Micik
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Thanks Gents,
Lucky it's my left shoulder, so the beer/wine/whiskey/G and T drinking arm is still in good order.
Typing with one finger is a pain. Took me half the day to write the cricket post.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2019, 02:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Well, I suppose we should be thankful to win a series against someone, even if it is the Sri Lankan seconds team.
Due to a shoulder reconstruction, I am stuck at home frustrated by the crap on TV. Lucky the cricket was on.
The bowling has been a strongest suite for some time, and with Stark looking like getting back to his lethal best, I have no worries about that aspect of the game.
I am sure that Richardson will be very effective with the Dukes ball in the UK.
Still so many question marks on the batting however.
In both innings of this test against a very raw attack, we started at 3 for less than 40. The first test was marginally better at 3-72 in the only innings.
Travis head has really improved, but still has these spurts of impetuosity.
Kurtis Patterson looked very much at home, though i suspect faster bowlers on quicker wickets are going to target his head.
He takes his eyes of the ball when hooking or evading the short ball.
It is not surprising he has been concussed more than once. South African Bowlers in particular will lick their lips.
Pain has been a steady rock , not getting flustered, and his keeping has been impeccable.
No waiting for a declaration to get a half century for himself, but generous enough to delay the second declaration to allow Kwaja to make a timely century.
Once he got past the scratchy start, Kawaja looked pretty good.
We can only hope this continues in the future.
If he does not have a big series in the UK, AUS will struggle.
Burns got a big score , but like so many of his Sheffield Shield compatriots, he plays too far in front of his body.
Against the swinging Dukes ball, its asking for trouble.
Noty sure about Harris,. has played some gutsy knocks.
Maybe he is like Travis Head, just needs a bit of time to develop.
Marnus whatshisname is having more success with his legspin than his batting.
Liked the way they came out today though, and was reasonably accurate.
And despite all this, Aus needed to bat only once in Brisbane, and declare for not many wickets twice in the capital.
Just shows how poorly the Sri Lankans performed.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2019, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yo EB, what trading currency orgs are you using??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2019, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Market did not like BLD's annual figures.
Think its more to do with the cladding fire than the annual report.
Heading down to areas not seen since 2009.
I have put some speccy lowball bids in just in case.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2019, 04:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I sold out today, had the sell order in for two weeks before the market crept up to it,
Second time I have bought and sold this one for a profit.
Will I get a chance for the trifecta??

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 29 2019, 07:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

When I saw the 7% Jump, I just sold.
Didn't care about the reason, I was already 15% up from July last year, so I figured 22% was a pretty good return.
Will now start moving into some more gold stocks.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 26 2019, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yeah, but he will be lost next week.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 26 2019, 06:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

WI Captain Jason Holder has just completed a double century, his third score over 100 in test cricket.
May be able to put a case for best allrounder going around at the moment.
A fast bowler with 85 wickets at 28 to his name, approaching 2000 test runs at an average of 31.
And he is captain of a recently grossly underperforming team.
Not a bad effort.
And it looks like the WI might go one up against the old enemy.
England need 620 runs in the fourth innings. Bit of an ask, particularly when you have been bowled out for 77 in the first innings.
A good cricket all round.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 23 2019, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Interesting.
I wonder how it will affect EDE??
EDE have promoting Hythane, a mixture of Natural Gas and Hydrogen for some years now.
It was the reason that I originally bought into them some years ago.
Hythane's has lower emissions when buret than standard methane, and the hydrogen component increases the "flamability of the mix".
To top it off, they have developed a Pyrolysis project that produces carbon for their nanotube project ass well as Hydrogen.
Further reading HERE

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Up another 17% today.
That 2mill seller at 0.05 was swallowed up and then some.
Another big seller at 0.063, lets hope that one gets swallowed as well.
Onwards and upwards!
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 19 2019, 06:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Musk a little less bullish??

QUOTE
The Elon Musk who announced Tesla Inc. job cuts sounded a lot less bullish than the Musk investors have read or heard from lately.


Elon MuskPhotographer: Robyn Beck/Pool via Bloomberg
The chief executive officer warned “the road ahead is very difficult” and said in a blog post early Friday that the company had no choice but to reduce headcount by about 7 percent. He prefaced his statement that Tesla may make a “tiny” profit in the first quarter with the word “hopefully” and said it could be achieved “with great difficulty” and “some luck.”
he comments sent Tesla shares plunging as much as 11 percent, the biggest intraday drop since the Securities and Exchange Commission sued him in September over his tweets about taking the company private.

Here are some of the more-positive statements Musk has made since last fall about Tesla’s earnings prospects:

3Q earnings shareholder letter (Oct. 24)
“Our earnings profile has flipped dramatically. Sufficient Model 3 profitability was critical to make our business sustainable -- something many argued would be impossible to achieve.”

3Q earnings call (Oct. 24)
“We expect to again have positive net income and cash flow in Q4. And I believe our aspirations I think will be for all quarters going forward.”

“I think we can actually be positive cash flow for all quarters going forward, leaving aside quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment; for example, in Q1 next year. But I think, even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter.”

2Q earnings call (Aug. 1)
“I really want to emphasize our goal is to be profitable and cash-flow positive for every quarter, going forward.”

“I feel comfortable achieving a GAAP income positive and cash flow positive quarter every quarter from here on out. That’s a -- there may be occasional quarters, where we pay back a big loan or something, where there may be just because we paid back a big loan. But absent that, it would be cash flow positive.”


TESLA WHIPLASH

The less than enthusiastic response he received for his "thought bubble" re spending a billion bucks to bore a 40 km tunnel under the blue mountains is perhaps a further indication that people are starting to look a little more critically at the wunderkid.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 18 2019, 03:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Up a sizeable 24% today.
One must assume its due to the release of a report by Orio Capital
Was commissioned by BKT, so one assumes that they got the answers they wanted.
Took a chunk of profit, left some in ic case it rockets again.
Big seller at 0.05 should keep a lid on it for a while.
Mick
.
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 18 2019, 02:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

5 down for not enough, slow scoring rate, and once gain, Stoinis comes in ahead of Maxwell, fails agfain.
How many more rescue attempts does he have to go through?

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2019, 08:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Probably for the same reason he gets to bat after Stoinis.
Someone does not like maxi. someomne with clout.

Last game, Stoinis batted like a tortoise, and maxi came in after him and shoed how its done.
Same this time, but maxi got a longer hit.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2019, 04:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

S. Marsh a century in ODI.
He now has four of the last 5 Australian ODI centuries.
He gets a century once every ten innings.
Not a shabby record.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 11 2019, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

There must be somthing sevetely wrong with me.
Unlike all the accolytes, I find your postings extremely difficult to follow.
They may well be absolute genius, unfortunately the English , punctuation, grammar and sentence structure is from another planet.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 8 2019, 02:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

I am not sure if the batsperson waiting in the wings are any better.
This Indian side was just superior to OZ in almost every department.
Oz was beaten by a better team.
Thrir depth was also significantly better.
And there are a few other better teams around.
I am not looking forward to the next ashes in UK.
I think we will be thrashed, with or without Smith and Warner.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2019, 06:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Yo Frodo, I got the IM message to display.
I sent you an IM message, and it seemed to go through.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 4 2019, 08:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

So EB, how many of these events do we need till you get that rolls??
Maybe a convertible?
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
My conditional short order (GBP/AUD) was hit and liquidated within 2 minutes on that move. Wiped out 90% of my total account value. If I had enough margin that position would of been back in the money within another 7 minutes. Within 10 minutes the whole +5% move was over - unheard of?

I haven't seen anything like it, right at the edge of the bell curve.


So NPH, do ya reckon you are the victim of some fat fingers, or was it a deliberate play??
May stretch out the edge of that bell curve, highly suspicious IMHO.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Dunno Nip, but I suspect its just thin trading, but as we have seen in the past, these things can snowball.
While everyone stays on the thin trading bandwagon its ok.
If some start to think its more than that, the bandwagon can suddenly lookarather empty.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

BANG!
Shed another 2% since the open, showing 68.5 cents.
How long before inflation startes to creep p??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 05:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Gold is now up over 10% i past 30 days (in AUD terms that is , which is kinda important her in OZ).



Mick

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 05:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Wow, talk about volatility!
AUD vs USD down 1% to sit below the 70 handle.
Been a little while, fist time in three years its been down in that territory.
Interesting times!
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 05:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Nah Triage, I am not that smart to analyse too many things.
I am just loading up on gold stocks.
At l;east ones that actually produce something , rather than hype.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 05:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

While reading something entirely unrelated, I came across this chart.

As can be seen, the Vix has been in a steadily downward path from its highs of 53 in Aug 2015 until it got below 10 in late 2017.
Since then its all uphill.We have had intraday highs of 36 in late december.
Interesting times.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2019, 05:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
According to LME data on December 31, there remains one dominant warrant holding position currently holding 50-79% of total zinc stocks. LME zinc stocks are at their lowest since 2008.

On the face of it, its almost impossible to imagine that this is not a prima facie case of market manipulation.
Despite the lowest level of physical since 2008,futures are trending lower because of trading derivatives.
We have seen it for years in the silver market, where there COT report shows ten years of physical silver production being transferred in derivatives in a single day.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 1 2019, 07:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Lot safer being the only member of the "strata title body corporate".

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 1 2019, 07:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Back into SLR.
Nill debt, cash flow positive.
Highly geared to an increase in gold price, which I reckon has already started.
Riches await me.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 31 2018, 11:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Either there is a currency glitch, or the market is being manipulated(Nah, I hear you all say, that would NEVER happen).
Just checked currencies on Kitco, AUD up 2.8% against USD, the British pound up 15% against USD!.
The new volatillity??
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 31 2018, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Having another rally, even got a speeding ticket last week.
out of the red for now.
Mick.
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 31 2018, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Part of our problems are scheduling.
A really competitive series full of promise, and CA hold another meaningless BBL.
How can you develop a batting technique in T20 cricket??
Why are we not playing red ball cricket during the Test series, ? You then have fringe players at least having some recent experience against the red ball.
How can they replace anyone in the team when all the replacement are doing is going out trying to thrash the cover off every ball?
Its more about making money for CA than providing any support to the test team.
Its an entertainment circus.
Three of the top four scoring batsmen in BBL this year are wicket keeper/openers.
At least if Paine's fingers succumb to another injury, we have T20 replacemnnts all lined up.
I have been impressed with with Ricky Ponting as a commentator.
He said (during the BBL), that test cricket is learning about how to defend first and foremost.
He said "Strike rates, are immaterial in test cricket. Its first and foremost about not losing your wicket.
You can't score runs when your out.
You need to be able to up and down the gears depending on the pitch, the quality of bowlers, the status of the game, the weather, the quality of those coming after you etc etc.
It takes time and experience to devlop these skills.
T20 cricket adds nothing.
You only have to look at Travis Head.
Has played some really promising knocks, but then ruins it by playing stupid low percentage T20 shots.
Aaron Finch another example. Good at white ball cricket, but lacks the skill for the longer game.
As for the selection of Mitch Marsh as a fourth bowling option, why not just bring in a proper bowler?
Marsh has performed worse than Pat Cummins.
So they bring in Marnus again.
Hasn't played FC cricket since the last shield game in early December.
Not considered good enough for the BBl.
Last 5 shield games highest score 78, one other score of 52. The rest ordinary.
If they need a spinner, bring in O'keefe' or Holland, or Zampa, or go completely left field and bring in Liam Pope.

Mick


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 20 2018, 08:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

.
With a worldwide shortage of Pilots, Qantas have announced two new Pilot academies, REX already have one and expanding in Wagga, and Virgin looking to establish their own.
Piper Aircraft corp have had a massive revival selling archers and Warriors, not to American PPL holders, but to the myriad of flight schools set up worldwide.
We see the large number of foreign owned schools in OZ - Mangalore, Merriden (where the Chinese not only own the training college, but own the airport, and restrict locals from using it), Renmark, Chinese own 50% of CAE in Moorrabbin,.
However, thanks to the mindless cretins at CASA, Australian pirivate pilot aviation has declined remarkably.
With the introduction the "new and improved" Part 135 legislation, Charter operations in OZ will be effectiveyl closed down .
Lots of Piston engined twins will become redundant, prices will fall, and lots of aviation businesses will go bust.
Just as the stupidity of CASA's SUDS program immediately wrote off so many older Cessna singles, so will this stupidity write off many twins.
I hope that SMN can maintain a presence overseas.
In fact, if they had any sense, they woul;d shift to the US, where the FAA not only sees General Aviation as an important part of the whole aviation business, they actively promote it.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2018, 06:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Like most of the ABC reporting, this is a misleading heading.

QUOTE
One-third of large Australian companies paid no tax, ATO data show


The table is only related to income tax. It does not include Payroll Tax, GST, FBT tax, Resource Rent tax, etc etc.

Must have been prepared by Alberici.

Secondly, when you look at the table, there are a lot of gaps where either or both of the taxable income and tax paid are missing.
there is no explanation why.

No wonder the average Joe (or Josephine) in the street have little idea about finance and economics.

Miclk
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 13 2018, 03:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

My nephew sent me a link from an overseas newsagency with all the details.
No wonder the media here in OZ are pissed orfr.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 13 2018, 12:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

C'mon you guys, spill the beans, name names, post the overseas links.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2018, 01:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Music to my ears!
GS may finally get whats coming to it.
A greater bunch of thieving shysters never walked the earth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

Heads to roll, APRA, ASIC, and the other alphabets should take heed as to how a regulator works.

Miclk
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 26 2018, 08:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Woa, seems that OZ is not the only Test Playing nation turning collapses into an art form.
The kiwis, after getting to 1 /61 lost their next 9 wickets for 29, with six ducks , finishing on 90 all out in less than 36 overs.
Yasir Shah has the rather jolly figures of 8 for 41.
With a lead of 330 odd, its not surprising that Pakistan have enforced the follow on.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 25 2018, 04:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Congrats Aussie women on their fourth world T20 title. T20 Title
And they did it earning a tiny fraction of what the underperforming male counterparts manage to do.

Perhaps its time we just asked the womens team to play in place of the mens team.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 21 2018, 07:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

Aggh, wouldn't ya know it!
Maxi gets going big time, OZ look like they are capable of posting a pretty big total, and down comes the rain.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2018, 07:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,807

QUOTE
But the Federal Court took a contrary view and declined to ratify the settlement, thus exploding the strategy in ASIC’s face.

This was meant to ASIC’s comeback performance - the test case that would open the floodgates to take on other banks - and one that would herald to the community that banks would be accountable for the irresponsible lending practices that had featured so heavily during the royal commission into financial misconduct. It would have been the largest civil penalty awarded under the National Credit Act.

The ramifications will ripple through the banking community. The Hayne royal commission suggested banks had come up short on responsible lending - or more particularly on the verification of borrowers' expenses. Thus Tuesday’s court decision should result in a collective sigh of relief from the big four banks.


Being a fully paid up member of the legal profession, i suspect Hayne will suggest that if the learned judge could not find any wrong doing under the law, then the law is at fault, and as such, the law needs to be changed.
Its a win win situation. Hayne, the judge are not put in any conflicted position, the legal profession will make more money, APRA will be exonerated, and the government will be left with the blame.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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