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post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 11:36 PM
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In Reply To: garthyd's post @ Oct 15 2019, 08:45 PM

Clinuvel: Skin in the game - Eureka Report

Enjoy the reading smile.gif

What caught my attention:

" the US you’ve got Medicare and you’ve got the private insurers and they will need to pay for this treatment."

"in the case of the United States we knew that a number of patients from the United States were flying to Europe every two months to obtain the treatment, and the treatment was already reimbursed by the insurers so there is precedent that the large reimbursement provided in the US have been paying for this treatment the last four years."

"The preliminary discussions for the last two years before the insurers commit they want to see the actual FDA approval so the final discussions are now going to be taking place in the next few months so there is a two stage, there is a preliminary scoping discussion that you have with insurers to get it on the benefit list. Once you get approval that’s when they start committing to the conditions and price."

"From this moment on we are finalising discussions with the large payers to make sure that the product is on their benefit list and therefore they can cover the patient care."

"As we are still negotiating with various insurers and member states we do not disclose the penetration and number of patients because negotiations are ongoing so we have never publicly stated how many patients and how many centres we are treating but YOY we are increasing them."

"At the moment we’re in the hundreds and not yet in the thousands."

"This is going to be our next target population, patients of skin colour of African American origin that benefit from this product."

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Clinuvel__Skin_in_the_game___Eureka_Report.pdf ( 169.88K ) Number of downloads: 124


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post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 11:09 PM
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In Reply To: LevelHeaded2000's post @ Oct 15 2019, 08:23 PM

Yes I did but also I keep some shares so I want the SP to go up too. In my view, just nothing significant will happen the next 12-20 months that’s why I don’t see why the price should sky rocket the next 1-2 years apart from an take over coming. Further interest in the stock I assume once vitiligo phase3 and other extension labels are published ... and it will all take time, we have the same management the same sequential mindset ...

Just my view.. it can all be different smile.gif

post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 10:10 PM
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In Reply To: macgyver's post @ Oct 15 2019, 06:34 PM

Vitiligo news will pop the stock as well. I think people are overlooking the fact that the stock has had an insane runup the last few years. That blunts some of the fda effect. While the future and present are bright, I would think new investors have to do a air amount of homework to buy in at this point.

I believe the pattern is to drift lower from here until new news comes along.

Avita dropped, drifted lower, the. spiked a few months later. FDA is the start.

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post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 10:03 PM
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post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 08:45 PM
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In Reply To: PortugueseMan's post @ Oct 15 2019, 08:31 PM

Cut and paste ? Requires membership....

post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 08:31 PM
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Clinuvel: Skin in the game

Alan Kohler speaks with Dr Philippe Wolgen, the CEO of Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, whose share price has skyrocketed after receiving FDA approval for a drug helping people allergic to sunlight.

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post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 08:23 PM
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In Reply To: NewToCli's post @ Oct 15 2019, 07:05 PM

I understand you already sold the majority of your shares, so you have a particular perspective others on the board may not based on your personal interests and beliefs. I am not sure why you are painting such a dire situation (5-10 years, seriously?) though I can guess it is due to some fear your decision to sell may not have been correct.

I am not here to persuade with vague statement. I am here to present facts and others can decide whether Clinuvel fits their investment objective:

Financial Facts of Clinuvel
  • 12 months trailing profits June 2018: 12.9M
  • 12 months trailing profits June 2019: 18.1M
  • % increase in profits YoY: 40% increase in profits.
Current market cap is 1.685B. That means Clinuvel has a P/E ratio of approximately 93. This is trailing P/E which includes quarters of less income than we expect just considering the EU market. So, what about forward P/E? Let's only count Europe and assume there is $0 contribution from the US. Let's also assume instead of 40% growth we saw last year we only see 30% the next 12 months. So, I am making this as disfavorable as possible for Clinuvel.

That wuold be 23.5M profits next 12 months. That gives us a P/E ratio of 71.6. So, the forward P/E of Clinuvel today NOT counting US income growth and calculating SLOWER growth than we saw in the past 12 months yields a forward P/E of 71.6.

Biotechs are high growth. Clinuvel at this stage should have a high PE. In fact, it should be higher. Most biotechs at this stage have a infinite p/e (negative earnings).
My personal opinion is you are crazy if you think Clinuvel is risky or not doing well from a financial perspective.

How do investors make money from their investments?

Excluding dividends, etc, investors only make money if they sell their shares to someone else at a higher price. So, we must ask ourselves what are the events and context that cause share prices to rise? There are two primary drivers of this:
  1. Increase of net-profits, such as the 40% we saw last year and the likely (IMO) 40% we will see this year
  2. Expectations of future increases in profits. This is what causes the P/E to rise or fall. That's why Netflix has a P/E of 100 and Apple has one of 20. If tomorrow investors become more optimistic about Apple's future growth, then maybe it will grow to 25. That means a higher share price for the same income.
So, we must look at Clinuvel. What will the future deliver for Clinuvel in the relation of these two times? Here is my view:
  1. Profits will continue to grow. A forward P/E of 71 is amazing and this is excluding the USA. With the USA the P/E will shrink to 25 all things being equal. I expect the upcoming, nearly certain profit growth to continue and make the company look even better.
  2. Speculative profit growth is what investors are attributing to new indications, etc. IMO, Clinuvel is receiving very little speculative profits growth attribution by investors. That is why Clinuvel's PE is so low. Going forward, as more news items about Vitiligo come out, I expect speculative growth attribution to increase. This means that Clinuvel's P/E will expand even if it's profits stays the same.

Further Commentary

People who are saying Clinuvel is "overbought" or in a bad financial shape have either no understanding of biopharma or they have an agenda or they are not really financially literate. Clinuvel's financial position is doing very well. It is not in some crazy "investor bubble" as it is not trading at some crazy sky high valuation based on it's category, growth potential, and current incomes. The future is bright in Clinuvel. AND, the present is bright with Clinuvel. Don't forget that.

post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 07:58 PM
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I think everyone is underestimating the significance of the Phase IV trial data. This a huge step forward. Crappy trial data was a persistent cloud over Scenesse and it's recognition by government agencies. Now that it's been lifted, along with a resounding endorsement of approval from the FDA, things have changed dramatically from only a couple of months ago.

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post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 07:41 PM
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Fantastic result last week , stock price dropped some since last week , from now it,s waiitng on more news and expectations of the future of CUV and ofcourse the outroll of EPP in USA , I read that CUV has 7 years of market exclusivity.

Is there any more news regarding the Patents of Brain diseases , such as MS , DEMENTIA , ALS

post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 07:41 PM
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Fantastic result last week , stock price dropped some since last week , from now it,s waiitng on more news and expectations of the future of CUV and ofcourse the outroll of EPP in USA , I read that CUV has 7 years of market exclusivity.

Is there any more news regarding the Patents of Brain diseases , such as MS , DEMENTIA , ALS


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