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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Jul 20 2021, 09:30 AM
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Indices: US advise against travel to UK
Bond yields were broadly lower as investors remained concerned that the rise of the Delta Variant will weigh on growth. Global stock market indices were broadly lower as investors rushed for the exit, which saw the S&P 500 shed -1.5% with all sectors in the red, led by energy and financial sectors. The Dow Jones fell -2% and cut through its 50-day eMA to a 4-week low whilst the Nasdaq 100 held up relatively well at -0.9% after gapping lower.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) is on track to break a 9-month bullish streak, unless it can recoup the -7.8% lost this month with the 8 trading sessions remaining in July. At the current rate of volatility, it is about 1-2 trading days away from testing the January low, but the 200-day eMA is also in the vicinity so there is potential for technical support, even if only briefly so.
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SPX is right on 50 day ma at it's current level, if it go under 4250 next two session, then bulls should give it up .imho

asx200----- the future is under 7225, more likely more selling for our market when our cash market opens, the down side target is 7025ish for near term.
if one try to scalping trade ---the it might bounce at 7100ish!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 19 2021, 10:03 AM
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keep eye on 7225ish for asx200, it is sort of key level for investors and traders for near term . imho!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 15 2021, 08:27 AM
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/delta-lo...20210714-p589m0

Delta lockdown will shrink GDP, cost thousands of jobs
John Kehoe

Sydney’s prolonged lockdown for an anticipated two months will cause the national economy to shrink in the current quarter and cost thousands of jobs according to economists, stalling momentum in Australia’s bounceback from the virus recession.

The $5 billion in government support payments to businesses and households, however, will cushion the blow and help the economy to follow past lockdown and reopening trends by swiftly rebounding once restrictions are eased, market economists said.

The spread of the highly infectious COVID-19 delta variant, Melbourne on edge over the discovery of seven new virus cases and Western Australia restricting the entry of Victorians has exacerbated uncertainty over the outlook for businesses, investors and consumers.

After 97 locally acquired COVID-19 cases took NSW’s total active community cases to 785, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian on Wednesday extended the greater Sydney lockdown for at least two weeks to July 30, taking the total shutdown to five weeks at a minimum.

The intensifying downside risks as a consequence of the virus lockdown could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider delaying a planned tapering of its $200 billion government bond-buying program from September to November, ANZ economists said.
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but from RBNZ to some others central banks start to tapering,
i don't think they are aggressive enough though!! ohmy.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 14 2021, 09:44 AM
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The Russell 2000 (small-cap) value stocks fell -2.03% compared to the Russell 2000’s -1.74% decline. The Nasdaq 100 printed a pinbar reversal after failing to hold onto its intraday record high, effectively closing flat. The Nasdaq banks index fell -2.00%, biotech sector was down -1.09% whilst FAANGS escaped the pressure by closing -0.01% on the day. The S&P 500 printed a bearish outside day and closed at a two-day low, falling -0.35%. 10 of its 11 sectors closed in the red led by real estate (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary (-1.17%). Still, these are not terrifying numbers overall and there is plenty of earnings reports to mull over before we see if equities extend their downside or break to new highs.

The ASX 200 is expected to open 4-poijnts higher (effectively flat). Take note of yesterday’s bearish pinbar which reaffirmed its sideways range around 7216 – 7370, which is basically within the bearish engulfing candle on June 21st. That said, bulls may need to wait for a break above 7403 before popping open the champagne. Until then, range-trading strategies are preferred between 7216 – 7403.


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early birds
post Posted: Jul 12 2021, 09:58 AM
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On a closing basis the ASX 200 has been confined at an 87-point ranger over the past three weeks. Promising breakout patterns have failed to be confirmed and breaks have instead reversed, providing range trading strategies with optimum conditions. So, if prices can hold above the 7216.6 low then perhaps we may see another bounce back inside its range today.
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with sydney virus situation..... i'm more bearish than 7216 low. think asx200 might dip through that level. imho though!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 5 2021, 08:51 AM
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It’s a fairly quiet week for economic data, albeit with a couple of highlights worth watching. For AUD and ASX200 traders, Tuesday’s RBA meeting will be worth watching, though Governor Lowe and company are unlikely to make any immediate changes with Sydney locked down on COVID fears. We’ll also get an more details on what prompted the big hawkish shift from the Fed last month in Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. Finally, the G20 Meeting on Thursday and Friday will garner some headlines, though the immediate market impact may be limited.

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to me----- RBA will keep jaw boning "loose monetary policy" . thus , asx200 might pop up little towards to 7400ish!! imho though!!

 


early birds
post Posted: Jul 2 2021, 09:45 AM
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Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in July 55/93 years (59% of the time), with an average move of +1.6%.
Over the last 20 years, the biggest July advance occurred in 2009 (+7.41%); the worst in the last 20 years took place in 2002 (-7.90%).
The SPX has advanced in July 13/20 years, with an average move of +1.2%. And it’s been a lot better lately, with the index having been higher in July six straight years starting in 2015. It’s been higher 7/9 since 2012, as well. The average move over that time frame has been +2.5%.
The 20 Year track shows a pretty consistent upward path for the month, which then typically has led to a sub-par August.
With the SPX’s 2.2% gain in June, the index logged its fifth consecutive monthly advance. This marks the SEVENTH run of at least 5 straight positive months over the last decade.
Three of the prior six stopped at five. The longest monthly winning streak since 2010 was 10 from April’17 through January’18. In the 1950s, there were THREE 11-month win streaks.

The SPX concluded the quarter with its fifth straight DAILY gain, as well. This is the THIRD streak of at least five in 2021.

Since 2017, there now have been 23 winning streaks of at least five. Of the past 22, the SPX was higher 10 trading days later 73% of the time, with an average move of 0.70%.

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they gave the stats , bullish as it is.

we might see some up side for asx200 today or tomorrow. imho.

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 1 2021, 09:59 AM
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Since central banks began providing stimulus after the early days of the pandemic, stock indices have been on fire! Equity Indices have continued posting gains throughout Q2, 2021, with most reaching all-time new highs. Q2 gains in our most widely traded stock indices are as follows:

Wall Street: +3.97%
US Tech 100: +11.20%
Germany 30: +3.56%
UK 100: +4.77%
US SP 500: +7.81%
But with many central banks beginning to taper bond purchases (reducing stimulus) or discussing when they should begin tapering, stock indices may be nearing a top. During Q3, July is typically a slow month as many traders take advantage of the warmer months to travel and go on holiday. August could be “hit or miss”. At times, August may have some volatility, especially near the Jackson Hole Symposium. However, during other years, it could be dull, especially the week before the Labor Day holiday in the US. Volatility usually picks up in September, with traders returning to their desks and trying to get ahead of what they hope will be a big Q4 run. There is also an important FOMC meeting this September traders will be waiting for. Markets will be watching intently to see how committee members will adjust their outlook on growth, inflation, and interest rates. Below are levels to watch for in our most widely traded indices:

Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had been moving higher since the early days of monetary stimulus in March 2020. The widely followed US stock index briefly traded above the top rising trendline of an ascending wedge and reached an all-time high of 35,091 on May 10th. Price has pulled back into the ascending wedge, in what currently appears to be a corrective. There is still room to put in new highs without going above the upper trendline of the rising wedge. However, the DJI will first have to break above the corrective channel trendline at 34,500. Above, resistance is at the top trendline of the wedge and the May 10th highs near 35,091. Above there, resistance is at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the June 7th highs to the June 18th lows near 35,301. Support is at the June 18th lows near 33.271, then the bottom downward sloping trendline of the corrective channel near 32,890. Below, horizontal support crosses near 32,009.

US Tech 100

The Nasdaq 100 has also been moving higher since the pandemic lows in the spring of 2020. The tech heavy index put in a high on February 16th near 13900.5, before correcting in an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. After testing the neckline of the pattern several times over the next few months, the index finally reached the Inverse Head and Shoulders target during the last week of June near 14,400. The index also put in all time new highs on the last day of Q2 at 14,598.50. Resistance is at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the April 29th highs to the May 14th lows near 14,775 and then the upward sloping trendline of the September 3rd highs near 15,139. Notice how the RSI is in overbought territory and tuning lower, an indication that price may be ready to pull back. First support is at the previous highs near 14,075, then horizontal support from previous resistance near 13,773 and 13,416.

Germany 30

The German DAX has also been on the rise since the pandemic low, however, the market had a quick correction in October 2020 on its way to recent highs as price sold off from 13,184 to 11,645. After recovering in early November 2020, the DAX continued higher in an orderly channel trend. Price briefly traded above the channel in early April only to move back into the channel after a few weeks. Since then, the German index has been forming an ascending wedge within the channel. The DAX put in all time highs on June 15th at 15,803, however has struggled since then to make new highs. Resistance is at those recent all-time highs of 15,803, which confluences with the top, upward sloping trendline of the wedge. Next resistance is at the top, upward sloping trendline of the channel near 16,075. Support is at the bottom wedge trendline near 15,475, then the bottom channel trendline near 15,150. The next support level is at the May 13th spike lows of 14797.

UK 100

Moving over to the UK, the FTSE 100 has led a similar path to its current level as the DAX. After having a similar correction to the DAX in late October 2020, the FTSE 100 bounced and formed new highs on January 7th. After pulling back, the index continued to trade higher to current levels in a ascending wedge formation. All-time highs were formed on June 16th at 7,215.7. Price is approaching the apex of the wedge. The target for the breakdown of an ascending wedge is a 100% retracement, or near 6,315. Resistance is at the recent highs and the upper trendline of the wedge. The next resistance level is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 7th highs to the February 1st lows near 7,418.2 There is a band of support below at the Fibonacci retracement levels from February 1st to June 16th, between 6,645 and 6,859. Below, support is at the February 1st lows near 6.298.

US SP 500

As with the previously mentioned indices, the S&P 500 has been moving higher off the pandemic lows since March 2020. From September 2020 to November 2020, the large cap US index has been moving higher in a wedge formation. As with the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 made new highs at 4,305.5 on the last day of the month, quarter, and ½ year end! The first resistance level above the June 30th highs is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the May 7th highs to the May 13th lows, near 4329.6. Above there, resistance is at the upper trendline of the wedge and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 4,409.5. First support is at the May 7th highs of 4,266.7, which confluences with the bottom trendline of the wedge. Below there, horizontal support crosses at 4138 and 4035.6.

One item not mentioned that may come into play is a resurgence of the coronavirus, this time the Delta variant. It’s too early to tell how this may affect the markets, however localized lockdowns and restrictions seem feasible if the virus spreads. This may affect monetary policy and in turn, affect global equity indices. Be alert to virus and vaccine headlines throughout the summer.

During the beginning of Q3, equity indices should pick up where they ended Q2, which is moving higher. However, as central banks continue to taper or talk about tapering, markets may begin to roll over. For most central banks, this seems likely toward the end of August or sometime in September (except for the BOE who have already begun tapering). Central banks are keen on jobs and inflation data and will focus on these in determining monetary policy.

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it just one of many "educated guess". DYOR as always!!



Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 1 2021, 01:39 AM
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The SPX starts the last day of the month, quarter and first half with its fourth winning streak of at least four in 2021. The total +1.18% four-day move isn’t anywhere close to the best four day moves we’ve seen this year though.



2

The question, of course, is how much more immediate upside can the SPX manage after ripping through multiple milestones lately, including yesterday’s kiss of 4,300?



3

For one, simply getting TO a round number hasn’t influenced a rush of demand over the last few months. As noted in “Ten Tidbits SPX 4,300,” last night: Of all the round number new highs that the SPX has achieved since first hitting 3,400 back in August'20, the only level that was NOT tested on a subsequent pullback was 4,000.



4

But what the SPX HAS done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along. Recently, it’s adhered to the middle of the long-term trading channel.



5

11 ETFs we track finished with winning streaks of at least six on Tuesday. While all are stretched, 5/11 of them (ARKK, TAN, XLY, MTUM, FFTY) still are battling key supply zones, which makes their short-term risk-reward scenarios challenging.



6

As of last night, about 19% off the index NDX are trading above their respective Upper Bollinger Bands (UBB). While that’s the highest level since early March, we’ve seen this number get a LOT higher during spikes since last September.

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early birds
post Posted: Jun 28 2021, 09:17 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20210628-p584sc

“2021 [is] tracking to be a +20 per cent year,” Mr Lee said. The S&P 500 was up about 14 per cent in the year so far as of Friday afternoon.

While it “certainly seems to be a tall order for the S&P 500 to rally to 4400 before month-end … I think it could happen,” Mr Lee concluded.

“OK. Maybe by mid-July,” he hedged.

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the guy is a permabull. so as bull market keeps going ,so he is "right" all the way so far....

i'm not sure about asx200 today, as virus fear vs end of financial year window dressing.......... really not sure unsure.gif



 
 


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