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post Posted: Jun 29 2007, 08:47 PM
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Posts: 25

In reply to: ciabatta on Friday 29/06/07 09:01am

Correct me if i'm wrong...but the 50% upgrade today was from an increased strike length of 10k, rather than the original 6K.

So wasn't the upgrade 'par for the course'?

post Posted: Jun 29 2007, 09:01 AM
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The ore reserves report issued today is encouraging, on two counts. First, the obvious one, that it clearly underpins the project, for the minimum planned life of 20 years.

But there is a second point which is less apparent, but may be equally significant in the long term. Management has taken a major step towards establishing their credibility with shareholders. By now coming out with an ore reserve 50% larger than was initially suggested, they are shown to have been conservative in their forecasts. In addition, they have shown quite a bit of courage in sticking to their commitment to produce the estimate before the end of June, despite the temptation to delay the announcement until Monday, when it would probably have received more attention from Fund Managers.

It all suggests these people are in it for the long haul!

post Posted: Jun 22 2007, 08:52 PM
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Posts: 99

In reply to: Commander C on Wednesday 20/06/07 06:03pm

yeeha 70c plus close tongue.gif i bought into this after slowly moving out of U. stage 2 of this project has me wondering JV share placement etc as it will cost some dough to get going. As for directors/shareholders etc it doesn't change too much for me...simply confirms that they know what they are doing and the industry they are buying into....i can buy with confidence??? wink.gif

post Posted: Jun 22 2007, 11:56 AM
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PROMO: Introducing Macquarie Prime - Shares, gearing, CFDs and cash, integrated in one online account. Pre-pay your interest at 7.75%p.a.* before June 30.


user posted image
Recent Radio Broadcast (21/06/2007 14:30:00):
FWL - ITmk3 Technology Closer to Commercialisation - Mr Brett Manning, MD

N.B. Radio can normally be accessed by the 'RADIO' link, top of every page.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Radio delivers investor presentations from ASX listed companies. Keep up to date with the latest corporate dealings of the shares you follow. Hear news direct from the source. Listen to directors and investor relations mangers discuss their company, give investor updates and brief on current results. Radio keeps you informed about company announcements and events, and provides you daily market wraps and industry discussions.

Commander C
post Posted: Jun 20 2007, 06:03 PM
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In reply to: Young_Trader on Tuesday 19/06/07 10:48pm

Yes YT, what got me interested was its links with Martin Place Securities (going back to IPO?) and hence probably with MMX. I entered via buying $500 worth and then $2.5k of shortfall options @ 4c, having noticed that Black-Scholes option valuation at 75% vol valued options @ about 8c, plus Martin Place Securities link gave me some (deep) value comfort....of course am kicking myself for not appling for (lots) more options!

Am still digesting your 15 June post.....I have list of and am familiar with iron ore stocks, but as mentioned am not at all familiar with pig iron basic revenue and costs.

Let us suppose we nominally get to 100M shares fully diluted (and all cash raised in options and placements are used for scoping studies, exploration, etc).

At 50c, that's $50M market cap.
Capex say $350M now ultra conservative (?)
Enterprise Value = $400M

Did you mean EBITDA or EBIT to be $75M pa?
Is this $75M pa valued at spot prices, or spot prices less xx%?
Will $350M of capex enable all ALL the production reqd to get $75M pa EBIT?
What are the technology risks?

400/75 = 5.3 times, so on EV/EBIT multiple it is still OK value.

post Posted: Jun 19 2007, 10:48 PM
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In reply to: marcusd on Tuesday 19/06/07 10:05pm

your welcome guys,

Guys I'm after some feedback on some info I've come across,

I'm looking for opinions on the significance of this info, what your thoughts are, how it changes the fundamentals for you etc etc

It turns out that FWL have some very close links to MMX (Murchison Metals)

If you have a look Murchison Metals started off as a 20c stock like Ferrowest 2 years ago, today its $5!

To begin with here is a list of the 20 Largest Shareholders - 31 May 2007 see here

Rank Shareholder Name Holding %
1 Comet Resources Limited 8,700,000 16.11
2 Graeme & Margaret Johnston
(The G&M Johnston Superfund) 4,575,000 8.47
3 Philip James Evers 4,335,000 8.03
4 Grenache Pty Ltd 4,325,000 8.01
5 Alcardo Investments Limited (Styled 102501 Account) 2,589,816 4.80
6 Eugenia Manning 2,050,000 3.80
7 WHI Securities Pty Ltd
(Crown Credit Corporation) 1,923,500 3.56
8 Brett Lee Manning 1,887,200 3.49
9 Nikolais Zuks 1,300,000 2.41
10 National Nominees Limited 1,250,000 2.31
11 ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C) 1,100,000 2.04
12 MP Securities Nominees 1,027,000 1.90
13 Irrawaddy Investments Pty Ltd
(Duffin Family A/C) 1,000,000 1.85
14 JM International Investments 997,590 1.85
15 BOSO 1 Pty Ltd 500,000 .93
16 Forty Traders Pty Ltd 500,000 .93
17 Paul & Karen Kopejtka (Kopejtka Share A/C) 475,000 .88
18 Tuxedo Investments Pty Ltd 450,000 .83
19 Panga Pty Ltd 400,000 .74
20 G C & D S Campbell 350,000 .65

Wonder who no 9. Nikolais Zuks is?

He was only one of the founding shareholders and backers of Murchison Metals

Wonder who no 17. Paul Kopejtka is?
He also was another founder of Murchison Metals and is also the current Executive Chairman see this

Here is Murchisons last Top 20 see here

Note the familiar names, Nikolais aka Ruslan Zuks and Paul Kopejtka's

Also note Paul Kopejtka's interest in shares is Interest in Shares and Options 14,600,000 Shares, 4,000,000 Options At current Murchison prices thats a net worth of $100m +

3. Twenty largest holders of quoted equity securities
Fully paid Ordinary Shareholders Number Percentage
ANZ Nominees Limited 37,494,163 11.58
POSCO Australia Pty Ltd 30,000,000 9.26
J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 22,316,697 6.89
National Nominees Limited 20,752,767 6.41
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited-GSCO ECSA 17,507,955 5.41
Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited 16,664,395 5.15
Resource Capital Fund 111 L P 10,000,000 3.09
Taswa Pty Ltd 8,360,000 2.58 (Pauls holdings)
Hebei Qianjin Steel Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 7,142,857 2.21
Eriditus Pty Ltd 6,830,000 2.11
Mr Paul John Kopejtka & Mrs Karen Louise Kopejtka 6,240,000 1.93
Resource Capital Fund III L P 6,000,000 1.85
IOS Management Ltd 4,600,000 1.42
Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 3,461,811 1.07
Yilgarn Infrastructure Limited 3,300,000 1.02
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited-GSI ECSA 3,296,232 1.02
Mr Cecil Hoffman & Mrs Norma Hoffman 3,100,000 0.96
Dr Charles Frater 3,000,000 0.93
Russlan Zuks 2,910,855 0.90
Bscale Pty Ltd 2,847,200 0.88
215,824,932 66.65


post Posted: Jun 19 2007, 10:05 PM
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In reply to: Commander C on Friday 15/06/07 07:47am

great post young trader. Today was special 30% plus move.helped by a trickle of sell orders.If you want this stock you will have to dig deep into the pockets biggrin.gif

Commander C
post Posted: Jun 15 2007, 07:47 AM
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In reply to: Young_Trader on Friday 15/06/07 01:16am

Thanks Young_Trader for your input --- much appreciated!

post Posted: Jun 15 2007, 01:16 AM
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Posts: 6

In reply to: Fool32 on Thursday 14/06/07 12:26am

Thought I might do a comparison of FWL against 3 others, AXO, IDO and GRR

Share Structure 55m shares + 30m 25c 1/6/2010 Options
Mkt Cap @35c = $19.25m undiluted or $29.75m fully diluted

NPV = $1 Billion based on EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30yrs

CAP EX = $330m including a 20% blow out

Infrastructure = Excellent on the main highway to the main Gerladton Port, major gas pipeline runs through the deposit, town of Yalgoo only 14kms down the major highway

Ore = Good although low grade, its coarse and testing has shown "This sample produced a very good iron recovery coupled with a low silica return at a coarse (and therefore cost effective) grind size"

Share Structure 72m shares + 11m 20c 20/10/2007 + 16m in the money unlisted opies

Mkt Cap @90c = $65m undiluted or $90m fully diluted

NPV = $500m Ferro Vanadium production

CAP EX = $500m

Infrastructure = Avg requires alot of Infra

Ore = Good for Vanadium production, but unsure how easy it will be to produce Ferro Vandium


Share Structure 80m shares

Mkt Cap @$1.25c = $100m fully diluted

Project 70% Only!!
NPV = $800m
Pig Iron like FWL!

CAP EX = $750m

Infrastructure = Poor Its in Indonesia, and given huge Cap Ex I'd say Poor!

Ore = Poor Its an Iron SANDS deposit grading 10% Fe so will be difficult IMO to beneficate etc


Share Structure 110m shares

Mkt Cap @$2.10 = $240m fully diluted

Project70% Only!!
NPV = Could be huge $2Billion
? Iron Pelletss

CAP EX = $1.5Billion

Infrastructure = Poor needs to build power plant, then build power lines, needs to build a slurry pipe line that goes 100kms, needs to dredge the port to make it deep water etc, clearly alot of work here, but rewards could be exceptional

Ore = Excellent for Iron Pellet production, the high grade ore keeps operating costs down

So the point I'm trying to make, is aguably GRR is the most advanced and most likely to get into production the soonest, IDO seems risky and requires a large CAP EX, AXO seems cheap when compared to PMA and GRR but I don't know what the operationl risk is with beneficating Ferro Vanadium

Bottom line at $20m FWL is wayyy to cheap! even $30m fully diluted is too cheap, this peer comparison would suggest $50m to begin with and then eventually up to $100m as the project risk reduced

post Posted: Jun 14 2007, 12:26 AM
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In reply to: marcusd on Tuesday 12/06/07 09:20pm

FWL doing very nicely today on record volume


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