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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 20 2020, 07:48 PM
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Aud sitting at .6629
This is a level not seen since early 2009.
Nothing on the horizon to make one think the direction will change any time soon.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 31 2020, 10:11 AM
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Thanks mainly to the coronavirus panic, AUD still heading southward and just keeping its head above the 66 handle.
Have no idea how much lower it can go, but at some point it will become self fulfilling and the AUD drops because people want out regardless of fundamentals.
Should recover a bit once the virus panic dies down, but the trend has been heading down for while now..
Surprised that gold stocks have not gone higher given the lower dollar and higher tension due to the coronavirus.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 27 2020, 08:55 AM
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AUD heading down again, getting close to breaking into the 67 handle.
The other commodity currencies such as Brazillian real and Canadian loonie have also fallen, so presume it is an expectation of slowing trade.
Perhaps bought on by the Chinese Virus, less Tourism in particular.
Mick




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 23 2020, 11:50 AM
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The AUD jumped 0.5% after lower unemployment stats were released.
From ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Australia's unemployment rate edged down for the second consecutive month to end 2019 at 5.1 per cent, its lowest level since March last year.

Key points:
Solid growth in part-time work drove the unemployment rate down to 5.1 per cent in December
The ranks of the unemployed fell by 13,000 to just below 700,000
The result is likely to ease the pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut rates at its February meeting
The improvement was driven by a solid gain of almost 29,000 jobs over December, however this was entirely due to part-time opportunities.

Full time employment fell by 300 jobs over the month.

Australian Bureau of Statistics chief economist Bruce Hockman noted full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) remained below the average annual growth over the past 20 years while part-time employment growth (3.2 per cent) was above the average annual growth

"While there has been stronger growth in part-time employment over the past year, the underemployment rate is still where it was last December, at 8.3 per cent," said Mr Hockman.

A steady participation rate and the new jobs were enough to thin the ranks of the unemployment below 700,000 for the first time in almost a year.


Don't know why anyone takes notice of these stats.
About as reliable as my first car, and old Austin A40.

Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Sep 18 2019, 08:14 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 18 2019, 07:38 AM

And where is this trading occurring?
QUOTE
In April 2019, sales desks in five countries – the United Kingdom, the United States, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore and Japan – facilitated 79 per cent of all foreign exchange trading.

Trading activity in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong SAR grew by more than the global average, the survey found. Mainland China also recorded a significant rise in trading activity, making it the eighth largest FX trading centre, up from 13th in April 2016.

At $US2.0 trillion per day, the volume of spot trades in April 2019 was some 20 per cent greater than in April 2016, but still below the level recorded in the April 2013 Triennial Survey.

- not much faith in Beijing as trusted counterparty.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 18 2019, 07:38 AM
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QUOTE
The Australian dollar was on one side of 6.8 per cent of all foreign exchange trades in April 2019, from 6.9 per cent three years ago, the Bank for International Settlement's triennial central bank survey of global foreign exchange activity found.

The currency's relative strength came even as trading in FX markets surged 29 per cent to $US6.6 trillion ($9.6 trillion) a day in April, from $US5.1 trillion in April 2016. Growth of FX derivatives, especially foreign exchange swaps, outpaced that of spot trading, the survey found.

As expected, the US dollar retained its status as the go-to currency, being on one side of 88 per cent of all trades, up from 87.6 per cent three years ago. In second spot was the euro at 32 per cent, up from 31.4 per cent.

In contrast, Japan's yen slid almost 5 percentage points to 16.8 per cent from 21.6 per cent; it did however hold as the third most traded currency.

The survey put currencies from Emerging Markets as a group in fourth place.

As in previous surveys, the BIS said currencies of emerging market economies (EMEs) again gained market share, reaching 24.5 per cent of overall global turnover, from 21 per cent.

China's currency however expanded only slightly faster than the aggregate market, and the renminbi did not climb further in the global rankings. It remained the eighth most traded currency - with $US284 billion in turnover - with a share of 4.3 per cent, ranking just after the Swiss franc. Three years ago it was at 4.0 per cent. The US dollar was on the other side of 95 per cent of all renminbi transactions.

As for the Australian dollar, it was in fifth place followed by both the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc at 5 per cent each. New Zealand's currency closed out the top 10.

https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/aust...20190917-p52s0l



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 10:35 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 10 2019, 10:23 AM

Hope it does go above 69, will be buying FOREX at above 69.20.
Just on that note, despite the sanctions in Russia, the Rouble has been the big mover this year.
From Chuck Butler

QUOTE
Well, the BIG news from this weekend as far as currencies are concerned came from Russia, where after 5 years of economic sanctions, the Russian economy continues to grow! Industrial output is on the rise, the Russians believe they will have a record harvest this year, their Current Account is in surplus by $500 Billion… and… Inflation, which has always been a bugaboo for the Russians, has been falling for the past couple of years, and while it was expected to fall to 4.3% this year, it appears that it will be more likely around 3%... With deposit rates still above inflation, that means that Russia, as opposed to most countries, the U.S. included, do not have real negative rates…

The currency, the ruble, rallied big time on the news

More from Chucks Newsletter
QUOTE
Coming in second place for the currency news was China's announcement that they would cut their Reserve Ratio percentage by 50 Basis Points (1/2%). A Reserve Ration cut is akin to an interest rate cut, as it frees up more money to use to support the economy... This news was welcomed by the Asian and Pan Asian Currencies and followed by a rally in this region's currencies.

And just when it appeared that the Chinese renminbi would slip off the ledge and fall into a deep dark abyss, this reserve ratio cut allowed the renminbi to rally for what seems like the first time in month of Sundays!

it's not all gloom and doom news coming from the U.K. these days, although I do have to say that this one caught me by surprise... U.K. GDP saw a 0.3% growth print for July, after June's 0.0% print, there were, and I among them, economists that thought the U.K. was already in recession...

This news was welcomed in the European region, and allowed pound sterling to rally, but left the euro stuck in the mud.
.
So Russia, with a load of sanctions, the UK with the problems of Brexit, both have economies that are travelling well ahead of the pack.
There must be a lesson in this, just can't work out what it is.

Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 10:23 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Aug 7 2019, 04:01 PM

got a call for AUD/USD will rally to 0.6943 cps ish. not so sure it can get this high....but they had a call non the less.
just one of the ideas mick.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 7 2019, 04:01 PM
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AUD about to go below 67 handle.
Gold in AUD terms is now over 200.
Wonder how long it will take before we start to see some inflationary effects creeping into prices, especially as transport costs go up.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Jul 2 2019, 03:52 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/forex-marke...n-in-focus.html


now, RBA did cuts , but AUD rallying. lmaosmiley.gif



 
 


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