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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Nov 16 2020, 08:22 AM
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major market performed well last week. Mr. market seems start to think of " trump concedes soon"... not sure about that!! unsure.gif

asx200
keep eye on the opening above 6460 it will target 6485ish go over that level then it will be really bullish [ i doubt it]

keep eye on hi yielding stocks!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 13 2020, 08:33 AM
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The amount of SPX names above their 20, 50 and 200 Day MAs is nearing extremes. Long-term, this is a bullish sign. But it may cause some additional backing and filling over the short-term. The NDX components are not as stretched in aggregate. See the Market Statistics section below.


The IWM R2k ETF remains stretched, especially vs. the SPX. That may need to be normalized before the market can run all cylinders again.

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so they expecting a short term pull back from other major market, and long term bullish!!

asx200
would see more of pull back today , as TA point out. keep eye on 6375---6385ish. can't hold there , then looking for 6225ish.



 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 12 2020, 01:39 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 12 2020, 08:21 AM

for asx200
still think the index gonna test 6400---6425ish before this weekend. imho


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not even 3 a clock yet, asx200 index is at 6400ish. seems have to adjust it little lower to 6385ish. for the short term.




 
Mork
post Posted: Nov 12 2020, 08:47 AM
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In Reply To: Mork's post @ Aug 24 2020, 04:29 PM

QUOTE
I'm seeing the market in rally mode until sometime between late september & late october. I've had a target of 6,900+/- so we could see one final rally like back in May. When this complete's, i've got a min target of 5,100 to the downside, but i really think we'll test the March low sometime in the first half of 2021.

I still see no evidence of this uptrend being completed. Obviously wrong that this would be completed by the end of October.
Absolute max time for the uptrend to complete is Jan 2021, then the downtrend needs to complete by the first half of 2021. Looks like were in for surprise in Dec / Jan.

6,900 +/- starting to look like a possibility.

Big picture still the same. The lows get retested in the first half of 2021, then markets go to the moon in 2022/23/24?. However, when completed where going to give up nearly all of the gains from the 2009 lows. US market will correct nearly as much as back in the great depression. Buckle up for a wild ride, all should play out this decade.

Cheers
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“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

― Mark Twain

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early birds
post Posted: Nov 12 2020, 08:21 AM
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When Value has dominated trading sessions this year, Small Caps have outperformed, sometimes wildly so... This has been especially true over the last two days: The IWM R2k ETF has outpaced the SPX by over 4% and has bettered the NDX 100 by over 8%.

This has gotten a LOT of attention.

The IWM, of course, had not notched a new all time high until this week, which made it very late to the game. The NDX made a new high in June, the SPX, in August. From this perspective, it would appear that the Small Caps have lagged.

That certainly has NOT the case. The Small, Micro and Mid Caps all are up more than the SPX and NDX since the March lows.

Just how strong has this relative pop been? It's now triggered the first relative Demark Sell Signal vs. the SPX since February, 2019.

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so they think russell 2000 is way over bought !!

for asx200
still think the index gonna test 6400---6425ish before this weekend. imho

nothing is safe these days!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 11 2020, 07:13 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 10 2020, 09:36 AM

(Nomura's Quant Equity Strategist), notes, "We saw factors experience record moves never seen in their entire history (inception 2010) – even surpassing the June 2020 insanity earlier this year."

In particular, Momentum crashed 24% and Value spiked 15%. Those numbers are much more in line with some of the individual stock moves on Monday.

we've seen Momentum struggle for longer

=================

they talk about US market!!

asx200 will have some continues consolidation before it makes move up.



 

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nipper
post Posted: Nov 10 2020, 09:36 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 10 2020, 08:25 AM

QUOTE
the news sent shorts flying to cover at any cost!!


How true.... at the open. Such dispersion. Gold down, oil up; retail down, financials up, momentum down, value up



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Nov 10 2020, 08:25 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vacci...-infection.html

the news sent shorts flying to cover at anycost!! i did short into a lot of index after EU market opens that include asx200 [short it over 6500]

covered some but still held some, will cover all of them today or tommow.

SPX is project tp hit 3710ish at least in near future

asx200 is on it's way to 6675ish

my short term trading is to asx200 6400ish or little lower within session or two.


today ..long with energy stocks / short on csl jhx eg... my bet !!


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early birds
post Posted: Nov 9 2020, 08:09 AM
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sound like " it's over"
market seems get what it wants. or is it??? unsure.gif
we might see a typical -------" sell on news" reaction to the US election results as market already priced in most of the gain.
so a pumping up for a day or two then sell into it---esp us market.

asx200
rate near zero, and stimulus keeps flow, looks all good!! as would leader congrats Biden, i saw two has been quiet -----PUtin Xi
as world relieve on "bit of sanity return " i thought risk of mainland china attack Taiwan will be reduced before the US election
now, after Xi 's reaction, i reckon the risk still there, as Trump still in charge for at least two months----a window for hot war !!!
if everything is OK , then CSL JHX AUSSIE SUPPER eg.... will face higher tax from USA and local high yield will be the way to go....i guess
i held a lot TLS ---for defensive reason. but market seems not with me........ blush.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 6 2020, 09:15 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 6 2020, 08:21 AM

looks like it is RISK ON
QUOTE
the latest US election vote count means it looks like the Democrats will fail to win control of the US Senate, which in turn equalled the probable continuance of gridlock style filibuster tactics capable of blocking legislation too far from a moderate consensus in Congress.





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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