Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

858 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Gold, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: May 21 2021, 01:14 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 9,152
Thanks: 2749


In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 20 2021, 06:57 PM

The Case for Gold

I have been making the investment case for gold since 2005. That was the point that the first physical gold ETF was listed, and I bought some. Then I bought some more, then I bought some more, and now I have it coming out of my ears.
You could skip this note and just read Alan Greenspan's 1966 essay Gold and Economic Freedom, but his is a little more dense and ideological. His goes something like this: A Treasury bond is a claim, and as you issue more bonds, eventually you have more claims than assets.


That's when inflation happens. We are there.
How We Got Here

Gold has been going up, in fits and starts, since the year 2000.
Y2K was a special time in monetary history .... interest rates were high and currencies were strong. Financial conditions were tight. And the price of gold dropped below $300 an ounce and stayed there for a while.

I remember listening to the financial market report ... and hearing that gold was two hundred-something an ounce. That sounds cheap, I thought.

Fast-forward two decades, and you'll see that the last six months have been unkind to gold.

What's interesting about it is that we've had a boatload of positive gold catalysts : unlimited deficit spending and unlimited monetary easing, not to mention some civil unrest thrown in—yet gold has been the worst-performing commodity.

  • The reason is that lots of people have been attracted to digital gold—Bitcoin.
This is impossible to measure, but it's my belief that Bitcoin has drawn billions of assets away from gold. And in recent weeks, gold and Bitcoin have been negatively correlated. As Bitcoin has gone down, gold has gone up.
Winners & Losers
Bitcoin has proven that it is no store of value, after being so easily manipulated by a temperamental billionaire, in an elaborate pump-and-dump scheme. Nice asset you got there.
You can't do that to gold ... it's simply too big. Even the Reddit jerks who tried to manipulate silver sustained heavy losses. These markets are large and liquid, and it just cannot be done.

Cryptocurrencies are very young. A good analogy is the internet bubble of the late 1990s when there were thousands of (mostly unprofitable) dot-com companies. Fast-forward 20 years, and all of them are gone except for four.

If you had correctly picked those four companies, you were rewarded with unbelievable returns. But if you invested in Webvan's grocery-delivery business, for example, you got a zero.

It's not easy to pick the winners, and that's what we're being asked to do with crypto.

Bitcoin might not be around in five years. Maybe not Ethereum, either. Maybe the winner will be something else. Maybe it will be central bank digital currencies. I put this one in the too hard pile, but I'm pretty sure of one thing. That is…

  • Gold is going to be with us five years from now, and I think the price is going to be a lot higher.
.... Adding gold to a portfolio improves its risk characteristics and dampens volatility.

And no asset class has a greater propensity to disappoint, to sell off at the most inopportune and inconvenient times, and rally when people least expect it.

...I've been dealing with the arbitrary and capricious nature of gold for 16 years, and I've reached the point where I just have a great deal of patience with it. It will go when it goes.

But gold does have a tinfoil hat element to it, though gold investors seem downright sane next to the Bitcoin investors.


The Bitcoin people took [holding] to an extreme, and they're now sitting on a pile of losses. The older I get, the better I feel about taking profits, especially in the trades I like the most.

  • But in gold, there is no reason to take profits until the day that we start running balanced budgets in the United States.
If we get a fiscally conservative president and a hawkish Fed, the jig will be up, and markets will discount that well into the future. So, I am always on the alert if the political winds start blowing in a different direction.

Until then, I will be rolling around with my 30% precious metals position. It does not have a great deal of volatility (at the moment), so it does not cause me a great deal of stress.

And gold appears to be breaking out to retest the old highs of $2,070 or so.

....

from Jarad Dillion. The 10th Man



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 21 2021, 09:01 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,336
Thanks: 1176


In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 20 2021, 06:57 PM

Nipper said
QUOTE
Is the recent lift in Gold for real or will it fade (again)?


Have no idea. I have been bying the dips selling the pops for the past two years.
Happy to just keep doing it.
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
henrietta
post Posted: May 20 2021, 08:37 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 4,514
Thanks: 740


In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 17 2021, 03:14 PM

If the internet goes down ............. ???? The whole world stops !!! blink.gif

Cheers
J



--------------------
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
nipper
post Posted: May 20 2021, 06:57 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 9,152
Thanks: 2749


Is the recent lift in Gold for real or will it fade (again)?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 17 2021, 03:14 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,336
Thanks: 1176


Gold a smidgin below the 2400 handle.
Should mean that the miners can still get good prices for bullion trades.
Most goldies up big time today, silver not far behind.
Inflation on the march,the universe awash if Central Bank largesse. not surprising there is a retreat to hard assets.
One word on digital currencies.
What happens if the internet goes down?
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 26 2021, 12:24 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,336
Thanks: 1176


All of my goldies opened at low prices almost down to the early March covid dips.
I had a number of lowball bids in, but only one of them, for RMS, was filled.
Since this mornings open, there has been a massive turn around.
Gold and silver prices barely moved in that time, yet there have been intraday swings of 5 and 15 %.
Not sure what is going on apart from the usual manipulation, will have to wait and see what happens in US markets tonite.
Micik





--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 


mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 5 2021, 02:26 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,336
Thanks: 1176


Despite the fall in gold overnight that continued during the Asian trading session, most of goldies are well up today.
This suggests to me that those in the know will see gold go up in US markets tonite heading into the weekend.
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 1 2021, 10:00 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,336
Thanks: 1176


Gold sliding quietly up in AUD.
Now firmly entrenched above the 2400 handle.
I have started rotating out of my silver stocks back into gold.
Most of the gold stocks I am interested in actually produce gold, whereas most of the silver ones were speccies that didn't produce much.
ALK, SBM, RRS are my preferred ones this time around.
Will add a new one when SAR merges with NST.
SAR going to issue a special divvy before the merger, so pretty happy with that.
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 30 2021, 10:01 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 9,152
Thanks: 2749


Gold: Have we seen the magician's trick?
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/01/29/gol...agicians-trick/

By Glenn Dyer

It is clear now that gold staged something of a miracle in 2020,hitting a new alltime high in August of $US2,074.88 on Comex, while demand slid to an 11-year low.

In fact its more a magician's sleight of hand; demand down to its lowest level since 2009, as the pandemic drove consumer demand lower, but prices buoyant and record setting at one stage, although the bloom faded late in the year, according to the World Gold Council 2020 report.

The trick worked because of soaring demand from ETFs offset a slump in demand from consumers and industry and weaker but still positive demand from central banks.

The WGC reported that total gold demand fell by 14% in 2020 to 3,759.6 tonnes — the first annual level below the 4,000-metric-ton mark since 2009.

"While demand improved steadily from the severely depleted Q2 total, consumers across the world remained at that mercy of coronavirus lockdowns, economic weakness and high gold prices," the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends report said.

Thanks to the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns, gold jewellery demand fell 34% in 2020 to 1,411.6 metric tons, a record annual low.

However, investment demand for gold surged 40% to a record annual high of 1,773.2 tonnes, with global gold-backed exchange-traded-fund annual inflows reaching a record 877.1 tonnes in 2020. Global holdings in gold-backed ETFs ended the year at a record of 3,751.5 tonnes, the report said.

Without the buying support of the ETF's the gold market would have been a disaster area, along with listed gold miners and their businesses.

The WGC report said that fourth-quarter demand totalled 783.4 tonnes, a drop of 28% from the fourth quarter of 2019, the weakest quarter since the 2008 financial crisis.

The ETF's though saw an outflow in the final quarter of 130 tonnes as prices dropped sharply in November following positive news of potential vaccines for the COVID-19 virus.

The gold market also saw healthy bar and coin demand. The WGC said that global bullion demand increased by 10% in the fourth quarter and rose 3% for the year to 896.1 tonnes.

A small glimmer of light.

But not from central banks, who have been major gold supporters in the past couple of years, adding to the buying from ETFs.

The WGC said central bank demand dropped sharply in 2020, down 60% to 272.9 tonnes. The decline comes after central bank demand saw two years of record growth.

"Although 2020 marked the 11th consecutive year of net purchasing by central banks, it was the lowest annual total for central bank purchasing since that trend began in 2010," the report said.

Analysts have noted that central banks worldwide are more concerned about supporting their domestic economies than increasing their gold reserves.

That looks like again being the case in 2021.

On the supply side, total supply dropped 4% last year. "The first annual decline since 2017," the report said.

Mine production last year totalled 3,400 tonnes, down 4% from 2019.

"This was the second consecutive annual decline in production – and the first back-to-back annual drop since 1975," the report said.

"COVID-19 pandemic interruptions were the main reason for lower mine production in 2020, and the impact varied both geographically and over time," the report added.

And there was no joy from recyclers – production from that source only rose 1% which went against previous price booms.

But recycling was a victim of the pandemic and the lockdowns as many gold holders could sell their physical gold jewellery in person



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 12 2021, 10:34 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,336
Thanks: 1176


I noted that Germany's largest lender, Duetsch Bank will pay $120 odd million to avoid US prosecution on charges it "engaged in foreign bribery schemes and manipulated precious metals markets".

Every time I hear some US govt rep bleat bout the currency manipulators in other countries, I laughs me head orf.
The US manipulates everything financial, and now they want to manipulate everything digital.
Gold has lost over 200 bucks and silver over 2 bucks since last Friday.
So what financial or economic news might cause such a thing?

Biden has already stated that there will be at leat two more stimulus packages, and given the financial baggage slung on the last one to appease the special interests groups, the printing presses will be going over time.
Initial Jobless claims sill going up, the November Trade deficit at 68 billion was 5 bill higher than October.
The Fed were talking about more QE less than a month ago, yet Fed govenors Clarida and Evans both spoke this week about the timelines for tapering QE. The FED have put out bullshit forecasts about no rate hikes into 2024, but only complete suckers will believe that.
Average hourly earnings rose rose from 03% in November to 0.8% in December. That will only feed into inflation, which is of course what the FED really wants.
So what causes these sudden losses when all the financial data points the other way?
The great manipulators strike again.

Anyone who falls for the leftist crap about the dems caring for the poor should consider this:
With all the demands for lockdowns, stay at homes, no dining out, who suffers the most? It ain't privileged white elites. It is estimated that about 40% of all jobs are in the low paid hospitality/ service industry. Guess who inhabits those jpbs, mostly poorly educated non white citizens, both legal and questionable. And guess who loses out in the loss of jobs?
Big business elites and the well paid public officers who inhabit the federal, state and local governments demand everyone else suffer, but not them. They can work from home, self isolate , lecture everyone else, and not lose a dime in the process. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer, no matter who is in the Whitehouse, Congress, or senate.

Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


858 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING