Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

A reminder to all members that you agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


259 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

TLS, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
smithy
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 02:48 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 4
Thanks: 1


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 14 2020, 11:00 AM

Since we are all after some sort of income DVI or whatever, surely AMP would be a better choice. Bigger special dividend and half the price of Telstra. I do understand that AMP is a bigger dog than Telstra and always one step away from disaster. Keeping AMP for 48 days to get the franking benefit is a bit dodgy, thank you for any opinions.
Smithy


Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 02:40 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,828
Thanks: 3261


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 14 2020, 02:08 PM

Yep franking credit ...

Lucked some at the low today,
One never knows where you end up in the order list.

I am adjusting for franking credits with my assumptions .... 5% with franking and 6.5% without. That is my moat of safety and unless the market gives it to me, I dont give the money away. Conversely when it goes to silly side stuff .... say 4% without franking credits ... or 3% with, by then I go well you can have it back. About 50% gains between the two and holding ... with dividends as well.

Gives some margin or moat of safety if there is such a thing nowadays.

With banks, being harsh on them and demanding even higher from what I suspect will be half dividends for a while. Sure longer term ... it will be fine or the world ends, but prior to that there is some pain to endure ... our govt will not be bailing out every corporate willy nilly like the USA and abandoning covid testing and contract tracing.

Only time will tell on this but have been playing the TLS game for 20 years or more. I tend to sell too early and often buy too early leaving lots for the rest either side which they are welcome to.



--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 02:08 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,883
Thanks: 1477


In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Aug 14 2020, 11:34 AM

really appreciated your analysis K. i really do!

here is my thoughts

------------------
As such, if I demand a 5% yield on say 13 cents that's $2.60 I would be happy to get set at.Sure I will buy higher ... $2.95 without the Dividend ... and slowly as it goes down.
----------------------------------------------

the SP went down that low more than a year ago, so it is possible go down there again on TA terms .
how ever your 5% yield didn't include 30% franking credit on top of that, it is something a lot yield chaser really focus on it!

here is what other important reason that i think the SP unlikely to go that low.
most major CFD providers charges yearly interest around 2.6% currently, so if say one has $200k cash then who borrow 1mil to buy tls and yield of it not only can cover the interest and can gives some more income
of course , the risk is the SP keeps going down as some unforseen event happens otherwise , i expecting 3.20---3.25 before 25/aug [x--divy]
after x-divy it can go as low as 2.88,[lowest it can go] depending on market conditions.

reason i focus on this old dog is that i think it can gives relative safe sense than other stocks.

hope you guys gives more of info and thoughts to discussing!! tongue.gif




Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 11:34 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,828
Thanks: 3261


Howdy,

well half the brokers like it .... some love it and some hate it.

UBS has a buy and value of $3.70 on it still after the results.
I do agree we are in a low interest rate environment for many years. YES any return looks good and when banks are likely to pay half or 40% of old dividends as CBA did and most will not be as good as that as the dust settles post COVID19 ... that's 3% ish for many ...
TLS whilst longer term not worried, being the type who adjusts holdings to price, .... I loved it below $3- not so much at $3.40 and again, with the dividend still there till 25th Aug ... same stuff.

Our market to me is following the USA which has cut taxes again .... and again .... and again ... making their already non paying corporate side more a joke.That payroll tax and Medicare just saved employers 7% .... off their tax bill has NOTHING to do with Australia. However we followed equity wise.
Trump 2020 or Biden is ... not much different. Both corporate neo liberal types and unlikely any of the massive holes Trump has made fiscally slashing company tax then audits, then supervision, then rules and depreciation cuts and so on and now this .... whilst not immediate, USA has halved its tax collecting .... HALVED.

None of it will create a job ... or trickle down.
At some stage the rest of the world, who has let companies on the main deal with COVID19 and its implications and taken care of the people will come to roost. USA will have a deficit of over 150% of GDP and collect 10% in tax federally whilst trying to spend 15% ... a year.

EU will have say 140% of Tax to GDP at worst, collect 40% of GDP in tax and well ... the better long term risk is obvious.

Bottom line the year goes on and USA under billionaires ... both sides does not give a stuff about COVID19 or deaths and well at 1,100 a day and 140 days till the end of the year is 350,000- a decent call ?
As such, at some stage, eventually the fiscal taps are turned off. USA has done this for the non billionaires whilst handing a 500 billion gift to Walmart and large employers. In the meantime slashed Unemployment support to $300- HALF what it was and well ... it will eventually hit.
EU and other nations can no longer ignore Apple and Google and FB tax theft.
Eventually ... USA will correct, or its currency implode ...

Basically happy to wait.

We will follow ... and whilst we are at 6,100 miles away from recent highs, USA is close to its highs.
Nothing like a tax holiday for the needy and COVID19 for the poor.

As such .... I wait and will add ... if able to on the way down.DO expect TLS dividend to be cut ... minimum to 14 cents and possibly to 12 cents in coming years.

As such, if I demand a 5% yield on say 13 cents that's $2.60 I would be happy to get set at.Sure I will buy higher ... $2.95 without the Dividend ... and slowly as it goes down.
Trying to average that number around $2.60 for better or worse.


That's the plan at least.



--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: User  early birds  tombeet  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 11:26 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 7,317
Thanks: 2514


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 14 2020, 11:00 AM

TLS is sort of tempting, at $3. but the tech spend and unknowns associated with 5G and NBN loom.

I looked at the Buy and Sell sides... seems like a lot of orders going through -> retail?




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 11:00 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,883
Thanks: 1477


since i'm the one whom ramping this old dog.. feel that i have some sorts responsibility to dig more info out as possible

========================
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/08/14/tel...he-share-price/

The company will pay its final unchanged dividend of 8 cents a share to shareholders. That makes a steady 16 cents a share payout for 2019-20.

That didnít impress investors who instead focused on forecasts for sharp falls in revenue and earnings for 2020-21.

==================================

to me ----it's bit hush to trade TLS this way at current uncertainty . but as old says ----market always right. or is it for this case?? unsure.gif

hope you guys come out gives more info and analysis please!!



 

Featured Stock Stories





early birds
post Posted: Aug 13 2020, 03:30 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,883
Thanks: 1477


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 13 2020, 02:28 PM

Telstra is still a yield play
Tony Boyd

Telstra looks like holding on to its position as a reliable dividend yield play despite a decidedly negative market response to its 2020 profit numbers.

Chief executive Andy Penn was not rewarded for issuing relatively positive 2021 profit guidance and nor was the market cheering the decision to slash the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) target from 10 per cent to "greater than 7 per cent".

But the dividend hunters who rely on public companies to fund their living expenses will be less concerned about the 6 per cent slump in the Telstra share price on Thursday.


Telstra's Andy Penn is one of the few CEOs giving profit guidance. David Rowe

Dividend hunters have had a horrible year, especially those who invested in managed funds which promised "reliable income" from backing higher-yielding companies with attractive levels of franking credits.

Most of these funds suffered capital losses and dividend cuts because they were loaded up on bank stocks, utilities and infrastructure companies. Some of the funds suffered negative returns in excess of 20 per cent in the year to June.

 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 13 2020, 02:28 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,883
Thanks: 1477


In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Aug 13 2020, 11:54 AM

if it's 12 ff cps next year, it still a good yield at 3.15ish with current interest rate will stay low for long time [over 2 years]

it is still a buy for me for investment . what else can we see value ??

dyor as always !!






Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 13 2020, 11:54 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,828
Thanks: 3261


Howdy,
TLS results spell to me ... a cut dividend in 2021 and beyond around the 12 cent mark.
The 2021 ... forward call they said was not good. In fact very poor. This is outside COVID19 factors and NBN stuff is rolling off.

Suspect its value somewhere, but a long way away from here.




--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 13 2020, 10:58 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,648
Thanks: 945


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 13 2020, 10:23 AM

Yeah, I agree Eb, bought a few this morning .
Down over 20% since its recent high.
Can't see TLS going broke any time soon.
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


259 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING