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GNC, GRAINCORP LIMITED
mullokintyre
post Posted: Today, 02:37 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 14 2020, 04:22 PM

Took my profits on GNC.
Reckon it has got its boost from the expected plantings.
There is probably more upside, but it won't be until a few months when better ideas of actual harvest yields start coming in.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 14 2020, 04:22 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 14 2020, 01:16 PM

The Chinese can mess with any market, but people still have to eat.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: May 14 2020, 01:16 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 14 2020, 12:06 PM

Can the Chinese mess with this market?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 14 2020, 12:06 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 14 2020, 10:12 AM

And obviously Mr Market liked the results as much as I did.
Up 17% so far this morning, with plenty of buyers lined up.
Noice.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 14 2020, 10:12 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 28 2020, 09:54 AM

Good half yearly results from GNC.
Much to my surprise, profit is up on the previous year, despite the severe drought in OZ.
With the great start to the Autumn so far, grain in particular is looking good so far.
Very low debt ratio, but like everyone else, is not paying a divvy this year.
People still need to eat, and there is very little more staple or basic than grains.
If this keeps up should be a bumper year for GNC.
Mick




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 28 2020, 09:54 AM
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With some really good follow up rain for the wheat belts of Vic, SA, and NSW, being forecast over the next few days, the seasons grain harvest has had an excellent start in those states.
Its got to be better than the last two years of drought, so still hopeful that GNC will do well.
The lock downs in various countries has caused lots of home cooking to be undertaken, and hence demand for flour during the lockdowns has skyrocketed.
Australia's biggest flour producer, Manildra, said sales are up by 60% on last year.
Mick




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 6 2020, 12:13 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 6 2020, 11:54 AM

Yeah, I thought about NUF, but part of the issue is the potential for banning or severely limiting the use of glyphosate because of real or perceived health related side effects.
When the last lot of publicity about links to glyphosate and hodgkins disease, there was a surge in buying by farmers (and people like me who use it as the primary gardening tool).
With a forward P/E of 191, and not having fallen quite so much from recent highs, I wasn't convinced that the upside potential gains were worth the risk.
Still, it has the advantage of still having sales before the crop is finished its more dependant upon the expectaion of good yields, whereas GNC is reliant on the crop yield being up.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Apr 6 2020, 11:54 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 6 2020, 11:51 AM


QUOTE
"..Because of the rain at the start of the year, we've done more spraying with our business in the last two months than in the last four years — it's a big difference." "The biggest issue for ag at the moment is how hard it can be to find weedkiller," Ms Coupe said. "I don't think the suppliers of glyphosate in Australia anticipated that the entire eastern seaboard would have a spray round and use up all the spray in the country." "Now we've got places that need spraying and they can't get chemicals, and supplies are hard to get as well.". .
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...tural...o-life/12106688


Nufarm, anyone?




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 6 2020, 11:51 AM
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I bought into GNC this morning.
Talking to some fiends in Western Vic on the weekend, they all are all extremely positive about the coming season.
A couple of guys in the area planted after the rain three weeks ago and already have a good strike that is a few inches high,
The rain over the past few days will give it an even bigger kick.
Their only problem is a few paddocks of heavier type soil is too wet to get the seeders on.
Western NSW and Southern WA are in a similar boat.
Broad acre farming is one area that will be minimally affected by the Virus and shutdowns in the short term.
Its capital intensive rather than labour intensive.
As Col said, there is no better way to self isolate than sitting in the cab of his tractor for hours on end.
People will still need to be fed.
The total crop doesn't have to be anything above ordinary to make it massive compared to the last two or three seasons.

Similarly I have invested in IPL.
Fertiliser use will go up significantly as the farmers work to maximise yield and make up for the past few years.
IPL will benefit from this plus the fall in price of its feedstock.
It will still have a downside because of the closure of some its factories in Turkey, Malasia , China and other countries, but still worth a punt INMHO.

Mick




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blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 14 2019, 11:58 AM
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Another ASX listed company impacted by the drought - no doubt anticipated and factored into SP, which is up 4.85% currently @ $7.79

GrainCorp reports loss, axes dividend
By Darren Gray
QUOTE
The ASX-listed agribusiness GrainCorp has plunged to a $113 million statutory net loss as grain growers in the eastern states were hit by one of the "worst droughts on record".

In its full year results released before the market opened, GrainCorp revealed that it had axed its final dividend; last year it paid a final dividend of 16 cents a share.

The company recorded underlying EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $69 million), well below last year's total of $269 million.

Illustrating the severity of the drought in eastern Australia GrainCorp chief executive Mark Palmquist said the company had shipped more than two million tonnes of grain from other grain growing states including Western Australia, to meet the demand for grain on the east coast. NSW and Queensland had large grain deficits.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=gnc
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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