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Z1P, ZIP CO LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Jul 25 2020, 10:27 AM
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Posts: 7,260
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Livewire Markets: Okay. Blake, buy now, pay later has been all the rage. Zip. Buy, hold, or sell?
QUOTE
Blake Henricks (FireTrail): Zip is a sell. When you think about these growing markets, it generally is winner takes all. Afterpay is probably going to be the one. And the other thing we have done is we actually took all the analyst expectations for all the buy now, pay laters and what the TAM (total addressable market) is, and I will tell you what, this is going to be a huge market if they're all right. We do not think they are. It is a Sell.


Livewire Markets: Zip Co has been the laggard in the buy now, pay later space. It has only gone up 100 per cent this year. Buy, hold, or sell?
QUOTE
Jun Bei Liu (Tribeca): It is absolutely a buy for me. Well in many parts of the technology space, if the market is small enough, it's winner that takes all, but this is an enormous market. In the US, a couple of BNPL players have now, with all that investment, only penetrated 1 per cent of the US market; 8 per cent in Australia versus 1 per cent in the US. Now Zip Co just bought into that market. And now Zip has exposure to eight different markets. Now, there is Canada, there is UK. There are so many markets that could potentially be coming online. It is enormous now. And this market is real because we have seen Silicon Valley investors putting money in Zip. We' hae seen Tencent putting money with Afterpay. And potentially there will be more further M&A and activity picking up because they are taking notice that this is a real market.

So today Afterpay said they now can be sold through Google Pay, Apple Pay, all of that. QuadPay, which has been acquired by Zip, is already on there. So, the market is enormous and they bought a great platform onto it. And in terms of market cap, Afterpay at $18 billion, Zip, $2.5 billion. And Afterpay has 10 million customers. Zip has now, including the acquisition, over three, close to four million customers. So Zip has a long runway to go. By then probably Afterpay will be in the top five Australian companies, but Zip certainly will catch up quite a lot on that basis.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: rlane  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 23 2020, 06:26 PM
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Despite Afterpay being valued at nearly eight times more than Zip, Zip does not trail eight times behind its larger rival in terms of financial and operational performance. In Zip Q4 update, the company processed $570.7 million of sales with 2.1 million active customers and 24,500 active merchants. For the same time period, Afterpay delivered $3.8 billion in sales with 9.9 million active customers and 55,400 merchants.

Whilst these figures might suggest quite a contrast between the two BNPL rivals, it is worth noting that Zip current reporting only takes into consideration its performance in Australia and New Zealand. Post completion of its acquisition of QuadPay, Zip will emerge as a global BNPL player, operating across five key markets in Australia, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom and South Africa. This will bolster its performance metrics with pro forma annualised transaction volume of $3.2 billion, annualised revenue of $252 million and more than 3.9 million customers.

Transformational acquisition to level playing field

The biggest market for all BNPL players is the giant $5 trillion US retail market. QuadPay represents an invaluable acquisition that provides Zip with much needed exposure to the US market. QuadPay has already demonstrated accelerating growth with more than 1.5 million customers on its platform and 3,500 merchants. This acquisition also brought about a unique, shop anywhere app which enables customers to pay in instalments in store or online at any merchant.

QuadPay continues to deliver significant growth, processing over 1.4 million transactions in Q4, an increase of 982% on the same period in FY19. This delivered a total transaction value of US$163 million for the quarter, up 9% QoQ and up 800% YoY.

Motley Fool



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: rlane  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 29 2019, 06:59 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 29 2019, 06:47 PM

Afterpay users could face surcharge
QUOTE
The $6 billion of buy now, pay later transactions made via Afterpay, Zip Pay and Flexi Group may soon have surcharge fees added on, because of regulator concerns other customers are subsidising users through higher prices.


QUOTE
"Afterpay is most exposed to this risk, in our view, given its economics relies on merchant fees. For Z1P, our preferred pick, this is incrementally negative."

read more - https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20191129-p53ffw



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 29 2019, 06:47 PM
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reposting in correct thread

QUOTE
In a trading Halt - cap raise.
Zip Co Limited (“Zip” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce a proposed $60.0m capital raising

• $50.0m non-underwritten Placement to professional and sophisticated investors Capital Raising
• Zip is also seeking to raise $10.0m in a Share Purchase Plan to all existing eligible shareholders

• The Offer Price of $3.70 per share represents a:
• 5.6% discount to the last close of $3.92 on 28 November 2019
• 4.7% discount to the 10-day VWAP of $3.88

• Funds raised under the Placement and SPP will used to :
• Fund Zip’s global expansion into the UK market
• Expand Zip’s product range, including the launch of Zip Biz
• Increase investment in product and technology
• Strengthen Zip’s balance sheet

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 29 2019, 04:02 PM
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Posts: 7,260
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QUOTE
Zip Co Limited is pleased to announce a proposed $60.0m capital raising

• $50.0m non-underwritten Placement to professional and sophisticated investors Capital Raising
• Zip is also seeking to raise $10.0m in a Share Purchase Plan to all existing eligible shareholders
The Offer Price of $3.70 per share represents a:
• 5.6% discount to the last close of $3.92 on 28 November 2019
• 4.7% discount to the 10-day VWAP of $3.88

Funds raised under the Placement and SPP will used to :
• Fund Zip’s global expansion into the UK market
• Expand Zip’s product range, including the launch of Zip Biz
• Increase investment in product and technology
• Strengthen Zip’s balance sheet




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 8 2019, 11:29 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 7 2019, 07:02 PM

Short sales yesterday -
QUOTE
Thu 7th Nov, 2019 1,391,416 352,933,529 0.39% 7.42%


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p

SP down 2.74% @ $3.91

FWIW - a couple of opinion pieces from Morgans and RFM

Morgans says Zip had to pay up for Amazon deal
extract
QUOTE
"Zip has had to pay up for market access with Amazon receiving around 15 million warrants," said analyst Richard Coles.

"While 75 per cent of the warrants are subject to vesting conditions, the 7-year exercise period is long and could see significant upside pass to Amazon.

Zip’s Amazon deal is also not exclusive, although the strategic alignment between partners hopefully provides Zip some protection."

The broker did suggest the deal was an overall positive for the stock however, saying Amazon was a strong strategic partner for Zip.

"While Amazon has arguably had a slower than expected start in Australia, we understand it did generate around $290 million of sales domestically in 2018," said Mr Coles.

"Given Amazon’s huge scale, its differentiated offering and its success growing outside the US, it’s hard not to see Amazon gaining further traction in Australia over time."

The broker said, while Zip was performing well, its current valuation seemed fair.

"Zip’s management continues to execute well. However, with Zip having re-rated strongly this year we feel its current valuation is fair pending evidence of traction in its offshore growth strategy," said Mr Coles.


extract from Regal Funds Management Phil Kings recent article on Livewire

QUOTE
Why we still like Appen and Zip
"We still own Appen, because we think the valuation's very attractive. We're looking forward a few years, and I think that's fine. If a company has got a very strong market position, I feel comfortable looking forward a few years to see where that stock will be in a couple of years. There are other similar growth stocks out there as well. I think one reason that we've been very successful this year is that we've focused very heavily on small growth stocks.

We're very much in a low interest rate, low growth environment. If we can identify earnings growth, organic earnings growth before the market discovers it, then not only will we benefit from that EPS growth, but we'll get a strong rerating in that stock as well.

We've had a number of stocks double or triple this year as the market discovers the EPS growth and rerates them. I think a lot of stocks, as I said earlier, will go up heavily as they enter the index as well. That's something we're very focused on, stocks before they get too big or big enough to enter the index.

Well, investment is all about making forecasts. Making forecasts always involves a little bit of uncertainty, but I feel a lot more confident forecasting Appen's future cash flows than many cyclical stocks in Australia. I think stocks that rely on the economy for earnings growth can disappoint, and I think there have probably been more value traps in Australia over the last six months than I've seen in a long time.

Whereas something like Appen, if we do the research, explore the competitive landscape, if we talk to suppliers, if we talk to customers, we talk to management, we get very, very comfortable. They're in a very strong spot, and their growth is almost accelerating at the moment. They've established themselves as the go-to for their customers, and the main criticism they used to get was that they were too reliant on one or two customers. They've very much diversified their customer base.

A few years ago, they took out one of their large competitors, and I think they've very much established themselves as the go-to for their machine learning speciality, as well as speech recognition.
When we bought Zip it was on a valuation that was about 10% the size of Afterpay. As I've said, the first step in our process is valuation. We just thought all the hype was on Afterpay, and we thought people hadn't really discovered Zip.

We made a large investment in Zip and that's been very, very successful for us. That stock I think is up two or three times since we invested. We think in the buy now pay later space there'll probably be two or three winners. I think the merchants have an incentive to have more than just Afterpay on offer.

Just like most merchants accept two or three different credit cards, I think most merchants will accept two or three different buy now pay later providers. We think Afterpay and Zip will be certainly the two winners. We just prefer Zip on the valuation".
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/phil-...were-in-the-gfc




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 07:02 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 7 2019, 04:28 PM

QUOTE
Seeing it was nearly $6 a month ago, the news "SP up 16.28% @ $4.00" is less impressive.


I think if you take into consideration my whole quote - " SP up 16.28% @ $4.00 currently. Volume = 14.6 mil. Total short positions as at 31/10/19 = 2.22%. Shorts covering?" - and the two previous posts highlighting the increased short positions, the UBS sell recommendation,(not just Z1P but also APT and others in the sector) - the reference to "shorts covering" might explain the SP rising 16.28%. Shorts were scrambling to cover on todays news (IMHO) and that's why the surge. I wasn't trying to infer the rise was impressive - I understood reasons the behind the rise.

If you look at the previous post - short positions as at 11/10/19 = 0.90%
short positions as at 31/10/19 = 2.22%
short positions as at 01/11/19 = 2.29%

The ASIC data is delayed by 4 days so short positions as of today could have been even higher. No doubt a number of those positions were closed today on the positive news, pushing the SP much higher than would have been the case under normal circumstances.

Cheers



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 04:28 PM
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Posts: 7,260
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 7 2019, 11:57 AM

Seeing it was nearly $6 a month ago, the news
QUOTE
SP up 16.28% @ $4.00
is less impressive.

Thx for the charts; easy reminder of preceding performance (or lack thereof)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 11:57 AM
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Posts: 6,791
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 17 2019, 12:53 PM

SP up 16.28% @ $4.00 currently. Volume = 14.6 mil. Total short positions as at 31/10/19 = 2.22%. Shorts covering? https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p

Zip strikes strategic agreement with Amazon Australia

QUOTE
Zip Co Limited (‘Zip’) is pleased to announce today that it has entered into a strategic
agreement with Amazon Commercial Services Pty Limited (“Amazon”).
The agreement:

 Sees Zip available as a payment option for customers shopping on Amazon.com.au
 Sees Zip as Amazon’s first Australian instalment payment option
Zip CEO and Managing Director, Larry Diamond said:
“We are thrilled to have secured this strategic agreement with Amazon Australia,
providing customers with a more flexible way to pay. This agreement puts Zip
firmly on the main stage by allowing customers shopping on Amazon.com.au to
use Zip to pay at their pace. The agreement delivers a fantastic experience for
customers who are looking to own the way they pay.”

The relationship with Amazon Australia continues to deliver on Zip’s strategic vision of
providing customers with convenience and choice in how they choose to pay for
everyday products, whilst also expanding the network of acceptance for Zip’s 1.5 million
digital customers.

In connection with the strategic agreement, Zip will issue to an affiliate of Amazon
warrants to acquire up to 14,615,000 ordinary shares (“Warrants”). The exercise price for
each Warrant is equal to the volume weighted average closing price of Zip’s shares on the
ASX for the 20 trading days prior to October 31, 2019 ($4.70).

A portion of the Warrants (25%, or 3,653,750 ordinary shares) will vest concurrently with
Zip’s entry into the strategic agreement, and the remainder of the Warrants will be subject
to vesting milestones based on processed volumes. The Warrants may be exercised any
time until 7 years after the issue date (subject to the applicable vesting criteria being
met), except that the unvested Warrants are subject to early expiration in certain
circumstances, including in the event that the applicable vesting milestones are not met
by specified dates.

It is anticipated that Zip will be live on Amazon.com.au on 7 November 2019.

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 17 2019, 12:53 PM
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Posts: 6,791
Thanks: 2307


In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 16 2019, 11:42 AM

Updated chart. Sell down following UBS sell recommendation yesterday continues. SP currently $4.68 - below UBS target of $4.80

Gross short sales up yesterday - >> https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p Total short positions as at 11/10/19 = 0.90%
Wed 16th Oct, 2019 915,674 352,933,529 0.25% 6,681,965 13.70%
Tue 15th Oct, 2019 318,199 352,933,529 0.09% 6,283,068 5.06%
Mon 14th Oct, 2019 478,120 352,933,529 0.13% 6,850,751 6.98%
Fri 11th Oct, 2019 369,857 352,933,529 0.10% 8,044,858 4.60%
Thu 10th Oct, 2019 265,934 352,933,529 0.07% 4,173,697 6.37%
Wed 9th Oct, 2019 678,434 352,933,529 0.19% 6,551,650 10.36%
Tue 8th Oct, 2019 424,827 352,933,529 0.12% 4,392,486 9.67%
Mon 7th Oct, 2019 153,002 352,933,529 0.04% 2,536,266 6.03%
Fri 4th Oct, 2019 399,058 352,933,529 0.11% 3,348,995 11.92%
Thu 3rd Oct, 2019 303,939 352,933,529 0.08% 3,468,729 8.76%
Wed 2nd Oct, 2019 273,299 352,137,991 0.07% 3,535,327 7.73%
Tue 1st Oct, 2019 432,015 352,137,991 0.12% 5,408,357 7.99%
Mon 30th Sep, 2019 385,230 352,137,991 0.10% 7,609,417 5.06%
Fri 27th Sep, 2019 241,324 352,137,991 0.06% 4,938,520 4.89%
Thu 26th Sep, 2019 416,867 352,137,991 0.11% 4,749,914 8.78%
Wed 25th Sep, 2019 607,704 352,137,991 0.17% 3,045,960 19.95%
Tue 24th Sep, 2019 137,412 352,137,991 0.03% 2,141,604 6.42%
Mon 23rd Sep, 2019 185,926 352,137,991 0.05% 1,801,786 10.32%
Fri 20th Sep, 2019 2,300,196 352,137,991 0.65% 12,644,021 18.19%
Thu 19th Sep, 2019 196,266 352,137,991 0.05% 1,853,757 10.59%[/quote]
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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