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AZA, ANZON AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Guest_robbyoz_*
post Posted: Sep 17 2008, 11:33 AM
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AEL shareholders have now had to convert their shares to ROC ( now 90c) , which currently puts a value of 0.53 GBP on a pre take over AEL share, a massive haircut from the original bid price. AEL have handed control of AZA to ROC and effectively removed any chance of alternative bidders emerging.

40% of BMG now being valued at about 160mAUD, whereas recently 10% was worth 123mAUD.

AZA shareholders now stuck between a ROC and a hard place.

RO

 
Guest_robbyoz_*
post Posted: Aug 29 2008, 01:43 PM
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In reply to: SilentPartnr on Friday 29/08/08 12:17pm

Interesting read SP.

Valuation is 2.10 to 2.60 AUD yet the current offer is about 1.55 AUD

So AEL shareholders are being asked to accept 30% to 40% less than the independent valuation.

I guess I am confused on what fair and reasonable means.

RO

 
SilentPartnr
post Posted: Aug 29 2008, 12:17 PM
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Anzon Energy's Independent Expert Report dated 29m July 2008:

http://www.anzonenergy.com/Merger%20Inform...Final%20IER.pdf


Page 61 of the report gives a valuation for AZA of between A$499M and A$591M or A$1.35 to A$1.60 per AZA share.

Regards

SP

 
Guest_robbyoz_*
post Posted: Aug 28 2008, 12:52 AM
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In reply to: tricha on Wednesday 27/08/08 08:46pm

According to my calculations Deloitte confirmation is saying it is fair and reasonable that AEL shareholders accept 140mAUD for their 53% share in AZA. This implies that AZA has an EV of < 160mAUD and the AZA 2P reserves ( essentially 40% of BMG) are worth about 4.20 USD pboe. Certainly a tad lower than the previous independent expert conclusion ?

RO



Anzon Energy says independent expert confirms Roc Oil offer fair and reasonable
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Anzon Energy Ltd (LSE: AEL.L - news) . said an independent expert report from Deloitte Corporate Finance Pty. Ltd. has reconfirmed that the proposed merger with Roc Oil Co. Ltd. remains fair and reasonable, despite the fall in Roc's share price since the deal was agreed in June.

On June 16, Roc Oil's recommended scrip offer valued each Anzon Energy share at A$2.69 (1.30 pounds) and the concurrent scrip and cash offer for Anzon Energy's unit Anzon Australia Ltd. was worth A$1.65.

Since then, the ROC share price has continued to decline alongside other intermediate/junior oil and gas companies listed on the ASX.

As at Aug. 22, the ROC share price had fallen to A$1.11, which puts the current value of the scheme at A$1.48 per AEL share.

The AEL directors said they remain fully supportive of the merger.

The AEL board also said that, due to its illiquidity, the AEL share price does not reflect a share price that could be realised by a majority of AEL shareholders should they wish to realise their investment in the normal course of trading.

 
tricha
post Posted: Aug 27 2008, 08:46 PM
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In reply to: Twobees on Thursday 21/08/08 06:06pm

Yep the million man has exited and now we are tracking ROC's price.

Why on earth anyone would sell to a company with debt coming out of its ears and making a loss mad.gif a loss when oils at this great price, shame on AZA management for being so weak in dealing with this situation, take a cue from Origin's management, stand up and be counted. lmaosmiley.gif





 
Commander C
post Posted: Aug 27 2008, 08:25 PM
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In reply to: Twobees on Thursday 21/08/08 06:06pm

I've always thought that AWE would make a go, esp. as enough time as ARQ merger just completed....was almost going to send letter to AWE Board to that effect, but been busy last few weekends.

That would give AWE the onshore/offshore Perth Basin and offshore Otway, Gippsland [AZA], Bass, and Taranaki basins - i.e. a great business. And then wait for BG to snaffle Origin (eventually), and the onsell to AWE the rest of onshore Perth, offshore Otway and Bass.

I guess we will know before Wed 3 September one way or the other.

[Don't hold any AWE or AZA, just interested intellectually as to the Aus smoiler end-game.]

 


Twobees
post Posted: Aug 21 2008, 06:06 PM
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In reply to: tricha on Thursday 21/08/08 04:52pm

I did see the million man appear. Maybe a computer has decided and its like insurance. I have no idea. But this stock has been sold consistently for months now. Usually into strength so as to maintain the price. Its is not listed as an available short but that is not going to stop the borrowed ones. I am inclined to think that a/some large holders who had got in early were/are now taking profits. It looks cheap now but what doesn't.
You would have to be crazy to vote for it. I just have this feeling it will go ahead. AZA/ need more exploration potential than ROC can offer. Roc is on the last well of the Angola campaign with nothing to show for it so far, and the heavy oil looking a long shot. And similarly ROC need more upside than AZA can offer.
If only a suitor with means and connections would appear and rescue our attractive young company.

 
willial
post Posted: Aug 21 2008, 05:51 PM
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roc will buy if they can as they need the cash cow of bmg. I hope the share holders reject but feel management is backing ROC. Cettainly cheap at 80 cents today as even rocs paltry offer worth 92 and and on PE of about three

 
tricha
post Posted: Aug 21 2008, 04:52 PM
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In reply to: Twobees on Thursday 21/08/08 02:23am

Averaged down, bought more today and ROC are not going to buy them.

Strange trading in this one of late, anyone noticed.????

Very strange, a dumpeter is going hard out to unload. Just about at any price, 1,000,000 shares will appear for sale from one seller and then get pulled, re-entered, price lowered.

Hmm, I wish I had a spare million and taken the lot at todays low prices. Crazy, crazy market. lmaosmiley.gif

 
Twobees
post Posted: Aug 21 2008, 02:23 AM
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QUOTE (robbyoz @ Thursday 21/08/08 01:13am)

I cant see any advantage for AZA/AEL in the take over. If it were to be announced that the bid would not go ahead I think AZA would be very attractive again and I would be looking for a reentry. As the AZA have made it known that the company is for sale for the right price, another offer is quite likely - only next time I wont be greedy and hang on for too long. (I think the POO is likely to fluctuate wildly in the next year or two as supply/demand issues do battle and a good strategy will be to buy the low points and sell highs).As you say the reserves issue is now out of the way and is looking good anyway.
What do others think? Will the bid get scuttled? 2bs

 
 


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