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CKL, COLORPAK LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Sep 6 2012, 09:25 AM
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Has this defensive, but underachieving, stock turned the corner. BA-ML thinks so:
QUOTE
FY12 result comes above our estimates, Buy retained
CKL reported a normalised FY12 NPAT of A$7.7m, up 8.6% on pcp and A$0.6m higher than our estimates. Growth was driven mainly by contributions from recent acquisitions as the underlying legacy business declined. Macro concerns and shrinking manufacturing customer base led to lower volumes in the legacy business. We downgrade FY13E NPAT by $0.5m and FY14E by $0.4m. The FY12 reported NPAT was -$3.2m due to the one-off costs of $10.9m. Retain Buy.

Macro conditions to subdue earnings growth in FY13
We expect FY13 normalised EBIT to increase by only 2.6%, driven mainly by the increased sales from new products, synergies from recent restructurings and moderate growth in legacy businesses. We believe the strong Australian dollar, shrinking manufacturing base, competition from larger players and weak consumer spending is likely to keep CKL's sales growth (<2%) subdued in FY13.

Restructurings become more frequent and crucial
CKL recently announced further rationalisations in order to reduce its fixed costs. CKL plans to close its Villawood (NSW) folding carton plant and relocate the plant to its Regents park facility at a total cost of $7m. We believe this will help reduce CKL's fixed costs and help support earnings growth from FY14 onwards. In the face of slowing macro conditions we believe such synergy programs are crucial to maintain the profitability and potential earnings growth.

Buy retained – Stable operation with attractive yields
Backed by a strong management team, with a good track record of sales growth, operational excellence and value accretive acquisitions, we expect CKL to generate good cost savings which could help counter the adverse macro headwinds. Trading below its fundamental value (DCF of $0.82ps), we think CKL remains a good defensive, yield play with good cash flows post restructurings.

Market cap $42mill
Free float 68%
PE 5.5
Dividend yield 6.25%
ROE 9%
Debt to Equity 58%
but it wouldn't take too many headwinds to see them continue to struggle



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
theking
post Posted: Feb 22 2010, 03:25 PM
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In Reply To: Lizard's post @ Feb 22 2010, 02:25 PM

YES I have it noted in annual about 17/11/2009 it was but as they have several accounts it may be one of its trading accounts
the one thing for sure is they have been selling at a LOSS probably some super fund they don't care but they are not a massive
SELLER.. king.gif

 
Lizard
post Posted: Feb 22 2010, 02:25 PM
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In Reply To: theking's post @ Feb 22 2010, 01:54 PM

Their last SSH notice was in November when they had sold down to 10.65%. They only have to file for every 1% reduction, so they get to sell another 800k before they need to file another. There's been about 840k through since the last notice, but it's likely not all of them would come from the one seller.

 
theking
post Posted: Feb 22 2010, 01:54 PM
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In Reply To: Lizard's post @ Feb 22 2010, 12:28 PM

DOUBT HHL is a seller because of there size of holding stories would be circulating and nothing has been SAID.. king.gif

 
Lizard
post Posted: Feb 22 2010, 12:28 PM
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In Reply To: theking's post @ Feb 22 2010, 11:59 AM

I get the impression HHL are still selling this stock. If they want to clear the decks, it might be a long wait for this trade to progress.

 
theking
post Posted: Feb 22 2010, 11:59 AM
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WITH the announcement that Coca-Cola is selling in ever a great amounts only prompts to BUY more CKL they make the Fridge Mate boxes and Coca-Cola is one of there biggest customers so the next report will be GOOD they go ex div 3-3-10 @ 1.5cents.. king.gif

 


theking
post Posted: Dec 19 2009, 06:11 AM
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WELL, CKL has been a good little earner and they have now reported bank debit down with profit up so keep up the good work, BOYS.. king.gif

 
theking
post Posted: Oct 5 2009, 07:53 AM
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WELL the Annual report turn up with a pencil attached for use with notes and things very novel so the price is creeping up slowly
but sure and KING has been building up his holding current 43 cents but could go to 55 cents as it was pointed out below
a well run org., not many available at this price RANGE.. king.gif

 
theking
post Posted: Aug 26 2009, 08:37 AM
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THE results are out and a cum 1.75 cent div due they are now in a good position to build better results 2009/10 by directors
FORCAST..

 
theking
post Posted: Jul 13 2009, 04:32 PM
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Returned with a holding with a Yield of 7.6% not bad when you look at the banks offers,, will not set the world on fire but they
have a lovely $1 million press and cutter up and running you just cant run out and buy one off the shelf and there in food package
manufacture that's why they are in WORK.. king.gif

 
 


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