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Peak Oil/Peak Exports
annaliese
post Posted: Sep 26 2007, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE (Ice9 @ Wednesday 26/09/07 01:57pm)

The abiotic theory requires more evidence to have credibility. There are many instances of depleted oil fields refilling. There are notable ones in Russia (surprise surprise) but places like the Gulf of Mexico have had occurences. No one seems sure as to why but the most likely theory is that the depleted resevoir has been replenished from a deeper, connected resevoir.

But even if the theory gains crediblity there is no evidence yet to suggest that it has, or will, greatly add to known reserves.

 
rickhb
post Posted: Sep 26 2007, 12:03 PM
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That's a fascinating read and makes a lot more sense than 19 sq km of dead dinosaurs!

 
Ice9
post Posted: Sep 26 2007, 11:57 AM
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In reply to: annaliese on Wednesday 26/09/07 11:30am

Hi Annaliese,

Colin Campbell spends some time refuting this theory in his latest book "oil crisis".

I think I'll stick with the theory that crude oil is a finite resource for now.....I believe the geologist over the economist any day..........in my mind, the most compelling thing that supports the theory of peak oil is the discovery rates vs consumption (over time).

Thanks for the alternate view nevertheless.

Regards,

Ice

 
annaliese
post Posted: Sep 26 2007, 11:30 AM
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For those into abiotic oil the following link provides an alternate view.

Confessions of a "Ex" Peak Oil Believer by F William Engdahl

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/e.../2007/0925.html

 
Monteverdi
post Posted: Sep 26 2007, 08:30 AM
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In reply to: davo22 on Wednesday 26/09/07 06:55am


For as long as consumption exceeds the rate of new discoveries I shall believe in peak oil.

Regards,
Monteverdi.



--------------------
I could be wrong, of course.
 
davo22
post Posted: Sep 26 2007, 06:55 AM
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In reply to: davo22 on Tuesday 25/09/07 06:24am

" the current decline in world net oil exports is probably the start of a long term trend, as a result of declining production and/or increasing consumption in key exporting countries.
EIA data show a small decline in world net oil exports from 2005 to 2006, led by a 3.3% per year decline rate in net exports from the top three net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia, Russia and Norway. Furthermore, recent data suggest that the net export decline is continuing, and probably accelerating." ohmy.gif

 

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davo22
post Posted: Sep 25 2007, 06:24 AM
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In reply to: davo22 on Monday 24/09/07 06:59am

Ronald Oxburgh, former head of Shell UK said oil prices could reach $150 as supplies fail to keep pace with soaring demand.

 
davo22
post Posted: Sep 24 2007, 06:59 AM
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Sorry got distracted
Many think conventional oil peaked in 2005 and that all liquids peaked last year. The EIA who have previously been very bullish on supply going out into the future, recently changed their stance saying that there could be considerable supply problems after 2010. It looks like the SH#T may be about to hit the fan.
Cheers

 
davo22
post Posted: Sep 24 2007, 06:46 AM
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What is the biggest global issue, many claim it is global warming, recently it is debt levels and a falling US dollar. I beleive it is Peak Exports.

Peak Oil, when the amount of oil that can be extracted begins to decline. The biggest easiest targets were developed decades ago. The US peaked in 1970. 4 oilfields produce over 1million barrels a day all appear to be in decline. Mexico's giant Cantarell is crashing and it appears Saudi Arabias massive Ghawar is in decline. Resource nationalism is sweeping the world with countries such as Russia and Venezuala seizing oil fields and putting them under control of inefficient state owned companies. Unconventional oil tends to be very energy intensive as well as extremely environmentally polluting in the form of co2 emmissions, Canadas Tarsands are starting to gain significant attention from environmental groups.

Technology will not gallop in to the rescue and help produce significant increases in oil. From 1970 onwards improvements did not save the US from its terminal decline,

Current production allows for very little spare capacity and is reflected in record oil prices of over $80 a barrel. Opec countrys are suspected of inflating reserves significantly which could be of dire consequences considering that is where growth is expected to come from. Prices are extremely vunerable to any geopolitical or environmental events.

World growth has been fuelled by cheap transportable energy. Without cheap expanding energy supplys we are unlikely to see continued growth. The US currently consumes 25% of the worlds oil and there are over 2billion people in china and india that dream of living the US lifestyle.

When peak oil hits the decline in energy consumption will not be evenly distibuted exporting countries will have significant wealth from growing oil prices which will fuel internal consumption, that combined with conserving oil for future generations is likely to see a significant decrease in exports. I would expect that would smash the US economy (other importing countries) possibly adding to the significant woes it looks like experiencing in the short term.

Almost everything we do these days is directly or indirectly involved in oil consumption. The alternatives such as ethanol lack a reasonable EROEI as well as will lead to millions of people starving. Natural gas looks like it may not be far enough behind oil in its peaking to warrant the investment in infrastructure to act as a bridgeing fuel.

A topic that is well worth a thread on this forum.
Cheers



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