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Peak Oil/Peak Exports
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post Posted: Jul 4 2013, 02:48 PM
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One of the better things I have come across on the net, the oil drum website, is closing down at the end of the month.

QUOTE
Dear Readers of The Oil Drum,A few weeks ago the ISEOF board (The Institute for Energy and Our Future that facilitates The Oil Drum), Euan, Super G, JoulesBurn, and Myself, met to discuss the future of The Oil Drum. A discussion we have had several times in the last year, due to scarcity of new content caused by a dwindling number of contributors. Despite our best efforts to fill this gap we have not been able to significantly improve the flow of high quality articles.

Because of this and the high expense of running the site, the board has unanimously decided that the best course of action is to convert the site to a static archive of previously published material as of 31st July 2013. We will continue to post articles up to this date. Afterwards any articles will be held as a public archive into the foreseeable future, so that others can continue to learn from the breadth and depth of knowledge published by our many authors, over the 8+ history of this remarkable volunteer effort.

We sincerely thank everyone who has been part of the TOD community - authors, staff and especially commenter's and readers - for contributing to the success of the site. It is unusual for a site which is based primarily on volunteer effort to continue this long.


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10059#comments_top

There is another website for "peak oilers", called "peak oil", which appears to have been set up by an ex-oil drummer. I've only checked it out a couple of times and am not hooked yet. Not only was The Oil Drum a very good aggregator of energy news and analysis but I found it had an interesting mix of perfect world dreamers, deluded ferals, and hard-nosed realists (whereas my impression of the local version of peak oilers is that they are a monoculture of ex-flower power children of the 60's who are still living in hope that the revolution is just around the corner). I really enjoyed the variety of views and opinions available from The Oildrum but change is good as well.

http://peakoil.com/






--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
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post Posted: Apr 5 2013, 07:26 AM
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Here is a piece by James Hamilton, an econometrician apparently, which is interesting to me for two reasons.

First he gives us a then, as in 2005, and now comparison. And secondly, he has a graph showing the drastic depletion rates associated with tight oil and gas (a lot of the talk of US energy independence assume those depletion rates will be similar to that of conventional extraction).

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2013/0...eath_of_pe.html



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
mcart117
post Posted: Mar 5 2013, 12:36 PM
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I guess I have to believe in peak oil, or I wouldn't be sniffing around small cap coal and oil stocks, but the article below puts an interesting spin on it. I can't tie it in with the numbers given in other articles linked to this thread because I can't convert boe into tons of carbon, but I find the thesis discomforting. Essentially they are saying stop all exploration activity because reserves of fossil fuels already too high, and we only want you to dig up a fifth of what you have found.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-econ...0214-2efob.html

They may be a bunch of crackpots, and a few universities divesting oil stocks won't do much to the price. But what if more governments around the world follow the Gillard example and make it uneconomic for companies to use fossil fuels. What will that do to the oil price, and how soon?


Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
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post Posted: Feb 26 2013, 12:27 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 24 2013, 10:24 PM

Another article that drills into the hype around the US shale miracle, and this one appears to be from an out-and-out peak oiler rather than an idealogical warrior who is using the peak oil issue as a stand-in for the ongoing battle about climate change.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energ...th-a-fatal-flaw

But it is interesting that BHP (in appointing an oil man as its next CEO, presumably to preside over the massive shale assets it bought in the US) and Chevron (with its purchases in recent years of shale blocks in various countries, including Oz this week) clearly see shale as a major route to ongoing prosperity, or at least as an easy way to bulk up their resource reserves and balance sheets.

http://www.chevron.com/deliveringenergy/na...whereweoperate/



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
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post Posted: Feb 24 2013, 10:24 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 23 2013, 01:23 PM

Here's a couple of articles that pretty much directly counter what the article in the Amercian Enterprise Institute online magazine argues but both appear to be agenda driven. By the looks of it the peak oil debate is actually being used as a proxy for the idealogical battle about climate change. Not sure, but can't be bothered going down the climate change hole again.

So for what it is worth here are those articles I found.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/02/23/David-Hu...racking-Report/

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/rea...f-energy-part-i



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
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post Posted: Feb 24 2013, 09:07 AM
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In Reply To: jacsar's post @ Feb 24 2013, 12:27 AM

jascar

I've only been aware of the peak oil worldview for a handful of years but in that time I've seen attempts by some proponents of it to adjust the mantra from we are running out of oil fullstop to we are running out of readily accessible oil (as in all the big reserves left are controlledl by the crazies) to more recently we are running out of cheap oil (which takes into account the reality that there are huge resevoirs of tight oil underneath the US and Canada but it costs a bundle to extract much of it).

A quote quite often used to bolster the strength of the "we're running out of readily accessible oil" argument was one made by a Saudi oil minister that "the stone age did not end because we ran out of stones". In other words the argument was that the world did not have to start running out of oil for there to be a move towards alternative energy sources, and that if it came too much for the US to keep suppressing the crazies enough to keep the oil flowing from their parts of the world then we would all start migrating to other energy sources that are more within our control.

However the Canadian oil sands, to a lesser extent, and the US shale, to a huge extent, seems to have totally changed what the discussion is about. Using straight line extrapolations and ignoring exceptionally high depletion rates and the temporary effect of bygone rule numerous commentators are certain that the US and eventually other current oil-importers like China and the EU will stop being reliant on oil that is supplied by the crazies. The peak oilers / malthuesians seem unable to beat back the strength of conviction that the US will be freed of its duty to keep fighting wars for its oil (which has been a millstone around the neck of the US for the last couple of decades). Instead their best argument to counter the cornucopians seems to be well yes the US does have huge amounts of oil in its shale but the cost of extracting it will fundamentally change the economy.

Given that I fell for the original now seen as simplistic view that the world was running out of oil and also accepted that there was a lack of accessible oil it should come as no surprise that I now am swayed by the lack of cheap oil argument. Quite possibly I am having trouble accepting that I've been wrong all along and continue to be wrong. But it seems to me that how can we say that we are not in a deteriorating place with regards oil when even though most major economies are spluttering along at best and even though we apparently have access to oodles of readily accessible oil how can the oil price be stuck up around US$100 a barrell (Brent has been easily above that figure for some time now)?

Here is a quote that I saw this morning which I think is applicable here: "People don’t go hungry because there isn’t enough food; they go hungry because they can’t afford to eat.” which is by Amartya Sen who's apparently an economist of some repute.

(It is from an article about the food crisis and how the financial players have artifically inflated food prices.

http://mondediplo.com/blogs/the-futures-of-farming )

Even if there were lots of oil available in politically safe regions if people cannot afford to use that oil then all the ramifications of peak oil remain germane.

This opens up for me a whole new can of worms - for instance in recent years we've seen the price of gold double but the cost of extracting gold increase even more so that investing in gold stocks on the premise of a rising gold price was not a good idea, so too may it be that very few oil companies and fewer investors will be able to benefit from a rising oil price.

I have no answers here, and worse I am becoming more unsure as to what the questions are that I should be asking. Quite a challenging time for me...



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 

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jacsar
post Posted: Feb 24 2013, 12:27 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 23 2013, 01:23 PM

Thanks for the post, however USA may become self suffient very quickly and I think we will see a self provisiong of strategics assets come to the fore. At same time many may think oil is plenty but dont factor in production costs let alone enviromental costs for domestic potable water and for farming. I think the prices for oil/gas are irevocably about to rise ...cheers

 
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post Posted: Feb 23 2013, 01:23 PM
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Here's a recent article that argues strongly that peak oil is a non-starter. It is published on the online magazine of the American Enterprise Institute and the author is Vaclav Smil. Now I know that the AEI is a right of centre think tank in the US and I suspect that it was a home-base for the neo-cons but I am not sure how well regarded the author is or whether there is a neo-con agenda to this dissing of peak oil.

http://www.american.com/archive/2013/febru...ies-of-peak-oil

I'll do some hunting around over the weekend to find if there are any rebuttals of or support for what this chap argues (the oildrum will no doubt have some comments about it).



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
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post Posted: Aug 28 2012, 08:20 AM
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a good interpretation of where we are in terms of the demand supply oil tussle. From the bottom of my well at least, he appears to bring the various conflicting threads of current information into some semblance of coherency.

The key point for me is that the world's economy is not travelling so well and still at least a third of it - being the European economies - are having to endure record high oil prices. Surely something has to give: either the high oil price forces economic submission or demand backs off enough to allow prices to correct substantially downward (?).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...tible-fact.html



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
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post Posted: Jul 26 2012, 09:49 AM
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There has been some momentum of late in the mainstream media to the notion that peak oil is really much to do about nothing. The main thrust for this rejection of peak oil is tied up with the transformatory effects of unconventional gas and oil developments in the States. Whilst it may well be that the emergence of unconventional fossil fuels in major energy consuming economies as a viable alternative to OPEC oil and gas turns out to be the most significant geopolitical development of our generation - far less pressure on the West to give a hoot as to what goes on in North Africa and the Middle East - in my opinion such a turn of events will still likely be set against a background of overall supply pressures.

I freely admit that I do not have the technical knowledge nor cognitive grunt to be able to work through the various arguments for and against peak oil for myself. As such I rely heavily on the analysis and argument of others, and in doing so most likely show confirmation bias towards those who argue in favour of my already-reached conclusion: that peak oil is real and is already happening.

That being said, I found the following article to be a persuasive rebuttal of another analyst's rejection of peak oil.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/24...-peak-oil-dead/



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
 


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