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chris
Posted on: Apr 10 2009, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I get the feeling I am in the minority when I say management has made the right decision, that they have not sold good assets at the bottom of a market.

In my mind, and a simplistic one it is, the valuation of 31c has dropped, if at all, to around 27c. They now have cash flow of around USD$4.5mill per month and a stronger balance sheet whilst oil prices are rising.

Oil should continue to rise now Lehmans paper has dissipated, demand destruction is running at 4% a year against around 9% for depletion, Mexico will be down 18% this year, and the report out over night that car sales in China hit new records in March HERE.

So don't be too short sighted, I am expecting 20c by June as the Dragon stirs before finally sleeping.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 8 2009, 03:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Would they not sell at Tapis prices??
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 4 2008, 05:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

A quick look at some bits:

Cashflow increases over the last twelve months:

Dec '06 - $6,989,000
March '07 - $8,378,000
June '07 - $17,396,000 - Synergy taken into fold.
Sept. '07 - $16,227,000
Dec. '07 - $17,835,000
March '08 - $21,945,000

Given that the past quarter was cashflow positive to the tune of $3,319,000 and the current rate of growth in revenue between Dec.'07 and March'08 was roughly 23%, I am hoping for at least a $1,500,000 increase in revenue and the same increase in operating cashflow.

As for EBITDA, given the bulk of the redundancey packages should have been paid out in the first quarter I figure the low end of the scale would be to hope for a $1,500,000 or at best around $2,300,000.

If all goes well and they consolidate and do not buy anything (hopefully), FY08/09 would bring a EBITDA profit of around $9,200,000 on total cashflow of $92,000,000.

These figures do not include the announced cost savings of $8,000,000 ($2,000,000 announced in Feb.2008 and another $6,000,000 announced in March'08 quarterly).


Synergy has been the obvious driving force behind the large revenue growth through 2007 so it's good to see that Hyro is now being ran by Synergys' management team.

With 531,078,797 shares on issue the current value of the company is $24,429,624, it would be fair to say it is currently half price. IF all goes well and EBITDA is around $2,000,000 at the end of the current quarter, (I think) that would increase the value of the company to around 12c plus a cent or to for the value of the new managment.

Fingers crossed all goes well.

Regards.




  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jan 7 2008, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

There has been a sharp reduction in the queensland bottle neck over the laswt twelve months, as reported in the weekend AFR. Ships waiting have been reduced from and average list of seventy down to thiry.



<b>QR delivers on coal investment projects

QR has delivered a range of significant coal infrastructure projects as highlighted in a progress report released today for the 2006 COALRAIL Infrastructure Master Plan. The Plan outlines a range of projects, approved by industry, that make up the $850 million capital investment QR is managing to meet the required future capacity and performance of the Queensland coal rail network.

(Media-Newswire.com) - QR has delivered a range of significant coal infrastructure projects as highlighted in a progress report released today for the 2006 COALRAIL Infrastructure Master Plan.

The Plan outlines a range of projects, approved by industry, that make up the $850 million capital investment QR is managing to meet the required future capacity and performance of the Queensland coal rail network.

Minister for Transport John Mickel said QR had achieved some major outcomes since the plan was launched in September 2006, including the completion of 102 kilometres of new track capacity.

“QR released the original Master Plan last year to improve the consultation process across the supply chain and re-shape the business to capitalise on surging infrastructure investment and the resources and export boom,” Mr Mickel said.

“One of the most significant projects we have delivered is the completion and commissioning of the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal third rail loop on 8 November 2007.

“We have also made significant investments in the Goonyella, Blackwater and Moura systems that are adding to capacity on those networks.

“By the end of November 2007, we had commissioned five major track duplications on the Blackwater System which will help achieve a 30% increase in haulage by mid-2008.

“QR has also successfully delivered all infrastructure works in the Moura System before schedule and within budget.

“Overall, delivery of the COALRAIL Program is within budget and on time across all systems,” he said.

QR’s Executive General Manager Network Access Mike Carter said the 2006 COALRAIL Infrastructure Master Plan was an innovative agreement with industry to deliver a focused and phased pathway to expand rail infrastructure within the Central Queensland Coal Network.

“In delivering these projects, we have worked with our supply chain partners and other QR divisions to face the challenge of keeping pace with export demand and expansion in other parts of the coal supply chain,” Mr Carter said.

“The successful delivery of these projects in 2006/07 is a credit to all involved and a great result for the coal industry and the Queensland economy as we continue to work together to increase coal transport capacity.

“We are now looking to the future with the second edition of the Coal Rail Infrastructure Master Plan. A draft version of this document is being distributed today, with the progress report, to industry for comment, with consultation meetings to be conducted through February 2008.”

Mr Carter said QR had carried 165 million tonnes of coal in Central Queensland in 2006/07, a record level for the supply chains.

“The second edition of the Master Plan builds on that success and includes a number of improvements based on industry feedback,” Mr Carter said.

“The new plan has a longer-term focus, identifying preferred expansion options to 2027 that have the potential to increase export coal capacity up to 450 mtpa, which is three times the 2006/07 export levels.

“Feedback and comments are being sought from members of the Central Queensland coal supply chains, and a final plan is expected to be released in April 2008.

“Key projects proposed in the draft second edition include new links, passing loops and duplications for the Goonyella and Newlands systems, early works and duplications for the Southern Bowen Basin and a coal loss management project for the entire coal supply chain.

“Communicating and building relationships with stakeholders will remain a key priority to ensure the timely delivery of these new projects.

“We are extremely excited about the new plan and the opportunities it will provide for further expansion of both the coal industry and Queensland communities.

“QR Network Access looks forward to working with all parties to deliver rail infrastructure that will provide and ensure a strong future for Queensland’s economy.” </b>




Also;




<b> Asciano to Spend A$529 Million on Queensland Coal (Update2)

By Robert Fenner
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Asciano Ltd., Australia's largest port and rail operator, will spend A$529 million ($468 million) expanding into coal transport in Queensland state as Asia's demand for the fuel surges.

Talks are being held with ``multiple'' coal miners in Queensland, where annual production is forecast to rise more than 10 percent during the next five years, the Melbourne-based company said in statement today.

Asciano is seeking a share of the 165 million metric tons currently moved by government-owned Queensland Rail, the only transporter of the fuel in a state that produces more than half of Australia's coal. Bottlenecks in the rail system and at the Dalrymple Bay port are being blamed for delays in exports to steel companies and power utilities in Asia.

``Asciano has seen an opportunity,'' said Peter Rudd, a Melbourne-based analyst at Carroll, Pike & Piercy Pty, which manages the equivalent of $755 million. ``There are problems with delivering the coal to the ports, there is the demand but there isn't the infrastructure.''

Shares of Asciano rose 25 cents, or 3.3 percent, to A$7.93 at the 4:10 p.m. close of trading in Sydney. The stock has fallen 26 percent since the company was spun off from Toll Holdings Ltd. on June. 7.

Monopoly Market

Asciano owns Pacific National, Australia's second-biggest coal haulage company, which transports about 92 million metric tons of the fuel a year and dominates coal rail transportation in New South Wales, the nation's most-populous state.

``As we push into those monopoly markets held by QR, they've got significant growth potential for the company,'' Chief Executive Officer Mark Rowsthorn said on a conference call with analysts.

Asciano plans to begin hauling coal in Queensland within two years, with volumes to rise to 30 million tons by 2011.

Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-biggest mining company, said Nov. 26 it may not be able to meet contracts to export coal from two mines in Queensland because of congestion in the rail and port system.

The construction of new sections of railroad in Queensland will open up export opportunities for inland mines and may help Asciano win contracts, said Clyde Henderson, a Sydney-based coal analyst at Barlow Jonker Pty, a unit of Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd.

``Anybody that brings capital to the equation and some degree of management expertise should be welcome,'' he said. ``The whole system is being stretched.'' </b>





The negetive news you have been floundering for is this:

<b>High seas put Queensland coal terminal out of action
Radio New Zealand, New Zealand - Dec 28, 2007
Strong winds and high seas have forced operators of Queensland's largest coal terminal at Dalrymple Bay, south of Mackay, to suspend operations</b>


The impact of the SPP on EPS is minimal as funds were used to pay down debt, a move praised by analyst as very astute.

Regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jan 7 2008, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

7th January 2008: Scigen Limited (ASX:SIE) announces that it has entered into a Commercialization Agreement with Julphar for the distribution and marketing of Sci-B-Vac, its third generation hepatitis B vaccine in the Middle East, parts of Africa and Asia. The countries include all the Arab speaking countries in addition to Malaysia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In the Middle East where the prevalence of hepatitis B is over 8%, such as in Saudi Arabia, and significantly more in Tropical Africa, the market potential offers great opportunities for Sci-B-Vac. Julphar is committed to aggressively pursue these markets.

Sci-B-Vac was presented to all of Julphar�s delegates and marketing personnel at their annual meeting that took place November 2007 in Dubai and was enthusiastically received.

First commercialization is expected in the first quarter of 2009. This partnership will greatly enhance SciGen�s global marketing penetration of Sci-B-Vac and pave the way for stronger partnership together with Julphar in the Biotechnology sector.

About SciGen:
SciGen Ltd is a biopharmaceutical company involved in commercializing later stage research. It co-develops and markets biopharmaceutical products for human healthcare. SciGen focuses in the areas of gastroenterology, endocrinology and immunology. Its product portfolio includes vaccines and therapeutics.

SciGen acquires rights to manufacture, distribute and market biopharmaceutical products under exclusive licensing arrangements. SciGen�s portfolio currently includes proprietary biotechnology-derived products, and Biosimilar products, which allow for faster entry into the market, as Biosimilar products have undergone much of the clinical development and trials required to bring drugs to market. This minimizes the risks associated with early stage product development. SciGen currently undertakes R&D activities in collaboration with strategic partners and institutions.

SciGen�s competitive advantage is in identifying research with commercial potential at an early stage to which it adds its expertise in clinical development, gaining regulatory approval and bringing products to market.

SciGen is a Singaporean biotechnology company, established in 1988 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX code SIE). SciGen is headquartered in Singapore, with subsidiary companies in the USA, Australia, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam, Israel and India, a Joint Venture in China, commercial partners in Europe and collaborative partners in the USA and the Netherlands.
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chris
Posted on: Dec 3 2007, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: chris on Saturday 27/10/07 08:17pm

RE: CARBON ENERGY – LETTER OF INTENT WITH THOMAS AND COFFEY
Metex Resources Limited (ASX: Code MEE) is pleased to advise that a Letter of Intent for works to
commence on the Carbon Energy Pty Ltd (Carbon Energy) Underground Coal Gasification (UCG)
demonstration at Bloodwood Creek, 55km west of Dalby in southeast Queensland, has been executed
with leading engineering and project management company, Thomas and Coffey of Brisbane, whereby
they are to be appointed construction and project managers for the Bloodwood Creek development.
This will enable Thomas & Coffey to commence preliminary works pending receipt of all necessary
permits and approvals.
The development is budgeted to cost approximately $20 million and entails the construction of a 1PJ
(petajoule) per annum syngas module. Further details of the objectives sought and the significant
commercial outcomes that may be achieved from the demonstration are included in the Company’s
recent September 2007 Quarterly Report to the ASX.
The Bloodwood Creek trial site is within a defined coal resource of over 100 million tones of high quality
coal, which is estimated to contain approximately 2,000 petajoules of energy, with approximately 1,000
petajoules being potentially recoverable utilizing Carbon Energy’s UCG process.
Carbon Energy is in the process of becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Metex, with Metex evolving
into a significant energy company specializing in the development of UCG as a source of economic
quantities of syngas suitable for power generation and coal for liquids opportunities following the
successful completion of the UCG Demonstration at Bloodwood Creek development.
A related Media Release is attached hereto.
For and on behalf of the Board

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 27 2007, 07:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

This is a very strong and robust diversified engineering services company for the Oil, Gas, Mining, building and Construction industries.




• Third consecutive year of earnings growth
• Revenue increased 25% to $219 million
• Profit after tax increased 51% to $5 million
• Earnings per share grew 50% to 6.6cps
• Fully franked dividend increased 40% to 3.5cps
• Net assets increased 28% to $18.2 million
• Cash at bank increased 56% to $12.2 million
• Stronger position to consider further bolt-on acquisitions

http://www.thomascoffey.com.au/web/wwd_index.html
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 22 2007, 08:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Wingellina Drilling Results:

156m @ 1.14% Ni, 0.08% Co from 2m
80m @ 1.33% Ni, 0.15% Co from Surface
96m @ 1.15% Ni, 0.09% Co from Surface
66m @ 1.45% Ni, 0.08% Co from Surface
102m @ 1.16% Ni, 0.05% Co from Surface
82m @ 1.39% Ni, 0.11% Co from Surface
106m @ 1.29% Ni, 0.08% Co from 4m
100m @ 1.22% Ni, 0.11% Co from Surface
102m @ 1.28% Ni, 0.12% Co from Surface

Ni cut off .7% 154,748,137 tonnes @ 1.04%Ni, .07% Co, 47.37% Fe2O3

A look at Tin and other bits:

Collingwood Mine production increased over 260% on previous quarter with December ore production of 39,879 tonnes at 1.30% Sn against a target of 31,734 tonnes at 1.21% Sn.

Collingwood tin metal produced rose 300% over the previous quarter to 606.2 tonnes.

Royalty receipts for the quarter are estimated to be $2.85m taking the rolling 12 month average to $8.2 million.

A significant discovery of calcrete rocks (containing calcium carbonate) capable of fulfilling acid neutralisation functions for HPAL nickel limonite processing has been made within 3km of the deposit.

The Wingellina Scoping Study suggests that the most optimal process route would be a 4 million tonne per annum HPAL plant producing 40,000t of Ni metal
per annum as a nickel hydroxide product.

Studies to recommence tin production from the Tasmanian Tin Projects advance, including Mt Bischoff entering the final mining approval phase.

At the Wingellina Prospect, Nickel Limonite mineralisation is substantial in scale, occurring over widths of up to 600m, along a strike length of some 9 kilometres and to depths of up to 200 (typically 80 – 100m). The mineralised system remains open along strike and there is significant potential for depth extensions in many areas of the deposit that were only previously tested by shallow drilling. In the main, high grade nickel values are associated with yellow-brown to red-brown ochre-stained limonitic Fe-rich clays that are developed over the ultramafic (primarily dunite) units in the layered sequence. Depth and intensity of weathering appears to be associated with both rock-type and the presence of shears on the contacts with adjacent foliated mafic rocks. High grade cobalt values are associated with discrete horizontal bands of manganese oxides within the Ni oxide profiles.

The Renison Project is built around the Renison Bell underground mine and the Renison Tin Concentrator. These were both extensively refurbished during 2005 and operated until October 2005 before being placed on care & maintenance due to low tin prices. They remain on an advanced state of care & maintenance in preparation for a re-start.

Project New Blue, being the strategic plan to recommence mining and ore processing from the Renison Project and integrate the planned Mt Bischoff Tin Project progressed during the quarter.

The Rentails Project is a project aimed at the re-processing and recovery of tin from an estimated 18.17 million tonnes of tailings at an average grade of 0.42% Sn (containing over 76,000 tonnes of tin metal) that remain at the site from the historic processing of tin ores from the Renison Bell mine.

Mt Bischoff is a site of significant historic tin production and the Metals X plan is to develop a conventional open pit mine to extract approximately 750,000 tonnes of ore
at approximately 1.2% Sn over a three year period. This ore will be transported to Renison by road and form part of a blended feedstock for the Renison Tin Concentrator.


All this plus $6.5 mill in cash......
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 10 2006, 06:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Volumes a little too light at the moment. I'd say it's their Zinc interests not the lead interests that people are like the look of.



  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 18 2006, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

At 1400x say on average $70 thats $98,000, a month or $294,000 per quarter, add a couple of bucks for growth taking it to $250,000.

At a cash burn of $600,000 a quarter minus $294,000, they are down $306,000 a quarter, with $2millish in the bank. Adding 200 patients a month is $14,000.

The above monthly income falls off sharply as patients go from $70 to $45.

They need to get a hell of a lot of patients on board to make alot of money, two years minumum before any real cashflow.

Money best invested else where at the moment.





  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 16 2006, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

FINANCIAL POSITION

ACE’s operating financial position improved substantially this year. Sales revenue was 46% higher
than in 2005 even though commercial sales to China only commenced in the last quarter of the 2006
financial year.

Sales margins are being maintained at an acceptable level and will improve as the proportion of NGVS
components sourced from China increases.

For the fourth year in a row ACE has reported a reduced loss having improved from a loss of $6.4
million in 2002 to a loss of $1.3 million in 2006. The reduced loss is after incurring additional costs in
the establishment of staff and infrastructure in China, an increased number of engine development
programmes and approximately $120,000 additional costs in AIFRS accounting for amortisation of
convertible note equity and expensing employee share options.

Net assets of the group decreased from $203,000 at 30 June 2005 to $48,000 at 30 June 2006. The
major reason for the decrease was the requirement to amend the accounting treatment of Convertible
Notes in accordance with AASB 132. The new accounting standard requires $1,165,000 of the
Convertible Note value to be transferred from equity to non- current liabilities. Without this change of
accounting standards the net assets would have increased from $203,000 at 30 June 2005 to
$1,213,000 at 30 June 2006.

During the 2006 Financial Year the Company issued 17,934,922 ordinary shares to raise $1.5 million
cash, to convert $750,000 debt to equity and to satisfy $150,000 of the $300,000 acquisition cost of
Gas Torque Engines Pty Ltd.

The Group’s working capital improved from $377,000 at 30 June 2005 to $982,000 at 30 June 2006.
Orders from our major customers in China and our continuing supply of spare parts and services to
France and Australia are expected to provide revenue which will see AEC be cash flow positive and
post a maiden profit in 2007.

SUMMARY
The key drivers for the demand for natural gas vehicles, in particular:
• the price of oil;
• environmental concerns, especially in big cities; and
• security of energy supplies, are increasingly becoming more important.

Oil prices continue to hit record highs and urban pollutionand energy supply concerns continue to be major issues, particularly in the Asian region. The Asian
region also has abundant natural gas resources. Thus the natural gas vehicle market in China and the
Asian region is enormous and expanding as national and provincial governments focus on cleaning up
the pollution caused by buses and trucks by using secure local supplies of natural gas. AEC has firmly
established itself as an international frontrunner in the race to supply this booming market.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 30 2006, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Drill and blast specialist, Brandrill Limited, announced today their $8.0 million net profit result for 2005-06 and released their audited annual accounts.

The $8.0 million net profit result is after a positive tax adjustment of $1.9 million. Pre-tax profit for FY2006 is $6.2 million, some 280% above the comparable FY2005 trading result of $1.6 million.

Sales revenues for FY2006 were $103 million, an increase of 43% over last year’s $71 million. Revenue growth has been through increasing the number of rigs employed, expanding the contractual base of the company and increasing numbers of staff.

Profit margins and revenues grew significantly from the first to the second half of the year driven by a number of factors:
􀂃 Ongoing incremental improvements in operational productivity, efficiency and improved
purchasing terms following the completion of our restructuring;
􀂃 Increases in rig reliability and mechanical availability stemming from upgraded
maintenance performance;
? The commencement of the major overhaul and maintenance workshop at Henderson
allowing rigs to be returned more quickly and cost effectively to work;
􀂃 Some increases in rates reflecting a tightening of demand for our services; and
􀂃 The benefit through economies of scale from growth in revenues against our largely fixed
overhead structure.

The balance sheet has positioned the company for further growth. As at 30 June 2006, the net debt to equity ratio was 32%, working capital stands at $10 million and the interest cover ratio is five times.

Managing Director, Ken Perry, commented “This is a very pleasing result. With $100 million work already locked in for this year, and four big rigs to be delivered in the next six months, the foundation has been laid for further strong growth in 2007 in both revenue and profit.

The industry outlook for both iron ore and coal is very healthy for the foreseeable future”.

The strategy remains to focus on growing the drill and blast business in Australia. The major objectives are to obtain more trained staff, acquire additional cost effective drill rigs and secure long production related contracts with reputable clients.

For further information: Mr Philip Werrett, Company Secretaryi
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 19 2006, 07:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Cardno is a heavily diversified Social Infrastructure company with strong earnings growth and high dividend.

I think it has been abit lost until now as it's only now starting to show up as the water situation starts to bite world wide.

Here are some of their water services:
Waste Management
Flood and Waterway Studies
Environmental Impact Assessment
Rehabilitation
Water Quality
Water Sensitive Urban Design
Catchment Management
Water and Wastewater Treatment
Dams and Reservoirs
Water and Sewer Distribution
Catchment Management
Strategic Planning
Capital Works Scheduling
Water Cycle Management
Demand Management

Here are some of their local and overseas water management projects:
Noosa Heads wastewater treatment plant, Sunshine Coast, QLD
Lae City Water Supply Project, Papua New Guinea
Olympic Park storm water solutions, Sydney, NSW
Warragamaba Dam floodplain modelling, NSW
Bojonegara Water Supply, Indonesia
Herehere Irrigation Scheme, Gulf Province, Papua New Guinea
Rural Water Supply Project, Sarawak, Malaysia.
Hinze Dam Stage 2, QLD

http://www.cardno.com.au/capability_environment.htm
http://www.cardno.com.au/capability_water.htm

"Cardno Limited is a dynamic infrastructure services group with an operating track record
extending over 60 years. Through organic growth and selected mergers and acquisitions, the firm now
employs around 1400 people in Australia, the Asia-Pacific region, UK, Africa, Middle East and the USA. The
company’s vision is to be a world leader in the provision of professional services for the improvement of
physical and social infrastructure. We are an international company, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange"

Credit Suisse Jul 06:
The analysts have initiated coverage on the stock with an Outperform rating and a target of $6.20.

Credit Suisse is of the view that the company will generate EPS growth of around 20% per year for the next two years, for FY06 EPS growth is expected to be 55%.

UBS Jul 06:
It rates Cardno (CDD) as Buy 2 with a price target of $5.20, noting the outlook for its primary business of engineering construction looks strong for at least the next two years.

Over the last few years it notes management has demonstrated an ability to integrate new acquisitions into its existing operations, which is important not only because it has made a number of such acquisitions recently but because it looks set to continue expanding given the highly fragmented industry in which it operates.

Factoring in additional expansion, the broker expects earnings per share of 33c this year, but sees this increasing to 38c in FY07 and 42c in FY08, which equates to a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.6x earnings this year and 10.7x in FY08. This puts the broker ahead of median forecasts according to Thomson One Analytics, who sees earnings coming in at 30c this year, 35c in FY07 and 33c in FY08.

The average price target is $5.48, while the median target according to Thomson One is $5.27. This compares to the broker's valuation range of $5.00-$5.50 and a last closing price of $4.50.


I would expect Cardno to reach a target of around $5.50 by Jan-Feb07, which is slower than hoped with it's current strong earnings growth and dividend, but the market climate at the moment seems to be slowing things alittle.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 5 2006, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

The current management is doing an excellect job of turning around this company, they have positioned it well in one of the largest growing sectors, new media and online advertising.


SMH: August 3, 2006

"ONLINE advertising will continue its romp until at least 2010. By then it is expected to be the third biggest generator of advertising revenue in the Australian media sector - behind TV and newspapers - with $1.78 billion.

The bullish internet growth, forecast by PricewaterhouseCoopers this week, will come at the expense of free-to-air TV, radio and newspapers. Collectively they will have 8.8 percentage points shaved from their market shares over the next five years in what will be a $13.5 billion media advertising sector returning an overall annual growth rate of 6 per cent, according to PWC."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/technology/onli...4198205233.html

With Hyro's recent aquisition of Fluoro the can now offer not only an extended creative approach for their clients through everything from E-Commerce, online gaming (In ten years time this will be a major player in entertainment knocking on the door of Cinema), database development, viral marketing and email campaigns, but they can also include Stratergy (very important in advertising), web services, wireless (mobile phone) and broadcast (interactive Tv).

http://www.fluoro.com.au/

Looking at the numbers side, they have had an excellent year, revenue is projected to have doubled from last year to $22,300,000 with projected revenue growth for 2007 and 2008 to be around 50% (but with the sector hotting up I would have thought it to be closer to 60% for both years), they also recorded an operating profit for the second quater ahead of shedule. Top five clients demand has been increasing at a rate of 10%-12% quarter on quarter. Thailand has had an increase in billings of 124% this year and has remained profitable since the start of the year, they currently represent 10% of Hyros revenue.

Looking forward they are looking to grow Thailand with a possible local float and the possible soft, low overhead, entrance into the North American market by bid support for Hyro Government IP.

Looking at its major peers that we all know, PGA is probably where HYO want to be, and I expect will buy by the end of 2007. EMI is probably the closets comparision for HYO, EMI would be around nine months ahead of HYO on a growth basis. With EMI valued at $161Mill with 180Mill on issue, HYO valued at $30Mill with 280Mill on issue, I would say HYO was heavily undervalued and would expect to see the share price around 40c in twelve months, easy.

With HYO starting moving into a strong growth phase, in a sector that has strong growth, that should last for the next ten years, HYO would be an ideal T/O target for any advertising agency that needs to grow out of the current traditional advetising mediums (most agencies, even the big ones, have been slow to captialise on the current growth in new media).

One, more thing, HYO used to be owned by Fairfax when it went by the name Brainwave.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jun 29 2006, 08:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

If they find anything they are still 10yrs from production.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jun 1 2006, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Another focus was the attention to working capital and debt reduction. Cash flows for the
Group have been good and this has allowed us to continue to reduce debt this year.
Also the strengthening Australian dollar has allowed the Group to cover forward
purchases at relatively attractive levels in recent months.

Each of our Divisions anticipates and has budgeted for improved earnings in 2006
compared to 2005. At this stage the Directors anticipate that budgets will be met
although there has been a noticeable reduction in consumer sentiment and spending in
April and May.

Objectives for 2006
Our objectives for the Group in 2006 are as follows:

1. Continued profitable growth of our Entertainment Division through the focused
acquisition of movie and music titles to add to our well established back
catalogue. Despite heavy discounting in the DVD market we have identified
specific categories such as children titles and music DVD where growth in unit
purchases outweighs unit price declines. We are also reviewing alternative
marketing channels for our products.

2. Adoption by Central Station of an on-line digital download business which allows
this company to achieve earnings growth with no significant increase in working
capital. Central Station also celebrates its 30th birthday in 2006 and compilation
albums marking the occasion have achieved excellent sales.

3. Continued profitable growth of our Giftware Division with a focus on extending
the offering of our successful “Beanie Kid” range as well as rolling out our “Bratz”
hair products range for girls into major retail chains.

4. An overall group focus on lowering the cost of doing business with specific
attention to reducing working capital employed wherever possible.

5. Release of innovative new Housewares products and the relaunch and
repackaging of our successful O’Cedar product range which with other initiatives
will allow this Division to attain a more acceptable return on sales.

6. Reduction of Group overheads so that operating trading gains are held.

7. To increase profits on last years reported results.

On the basis of our unaudited accounts the results for the four months to the end of April
are ahead of the results for the corresponding period last year. Despite the consumer
slowdown noted earlier, the Board anticipates that reported EBIT and pre tax results will
be materially better than last year in the six months to June 30.

We are pleased to report that our Entertainment Division and Central Station in
particular have commenced 2006 at levels of profit well above the corresponding period
in 2005. A feature has been the emergence of on line digital sales as a growing means of
delivering Central Station product to the “Dance music” market.

The Giftware Division is trading at levels corresponding to last year.

The Housewares Division is trading profitably and well ahead of last years loss in the
corresponding period.

HomeLeisure has developed three clearly differentiated consumer trading Divisions. To
some extent each is reliant on consumer buying patterns and confidence as well as the
maintenance of new and attractive products at good trading margins. We believe our
products are and will continue to be attractive to consumers.

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jun 1 2006, 08:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Anything sub 14c is an absolute bargain.



Extracts from Chairmans address:

I am pleased to be able to stand here before you today and advise that this work has been done. Hyro today is a very different company than it was just a year ago. While our focus and capability has remained firmly within the Digital Services space, our capability has improved markedly. We have better business systems, better technical systems, better risk management systems and a larger, dedicated and highly capable team of professionals and management. We have restructured our balance sheet and eliminated all debt and have established sufficient capacity in working capital and borrowing capacity to support our organic growth objectives.

In short, Hyro is now the company we needed to create to take advantage of a very significant opportunity in our market. Demand for our services continues to increase, driven by those same
trends which are driving growth in online advertising, growth in eCommerce and growth in mobile services. Hyro is in the best position for many years to act on this opportunity. This is both in terms of actual capabilities and also corporate and financial structure.

For the last year, I have acted as non-executive Chairman and have worked closely with our new Board and new management team to facilitate the transition and to provide continuity on a wide range of strategic, operational and investor related issues. I believe that
your company has achieved a lot in this period of time, and I am delighted with the management team’s efforts and cohesion over this time.

The structure of our Board has been a topic of discussion for the last few months, and I wish to advise that in the ensuing months, these discussions will turn into actions. Over coming months, we will appoint a new chairman and will be looking to add to the structure of our board with persons able to add strategic, industry and professional contributions for
the benefit of our business.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 10 2006, 09:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

This one should get a boost from any additional govt. infrastucture spending post budget, coupled with the current mining boom and thee deal with Remtech, earnings should be growing nicely.

"The strong demand for the services provided by our McFee subsidiary has enabled us to reach the targets we announced prior to our last capital raising in November 2005 a little earlier than predicted.

I am pleased to say that McFee’s growth has been ahead of plan and we now have achieved monthly revenue of $4,000,000 per month from a zero base back in June 2005.

The contracts we have been awarded to date have minimum risk and are with blue chip clients such as Bendigo Mining, Alcan, Barclay Mowlem, Rio Tinto, MAN and ERA. The projects are being performed Australia-wide. Our Sydney office has been very busy and our customer base, market share and overall foot print in the industry we operate in has expanded."
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 26 2006, 10:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

OutStanding Results:

Hightlights:

Production of 923 tonnes for quarter.

Sales revenue of $5.8m.ill

Unaudited group profit of $320,000

More supply contracts.

Production targets of 1,000 tonnes for June quarter.

All this for .049c, go figure.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 14 2006, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Copper Surges to Record for 7th Day as Demand to Exceed Output

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices surged to a record for the seventh straight session in London on signs that demand for the metal used in wiring and plumbing will outpace production.

World copper use will rise 5.4 percent this year to 17.9 million metric tons, exceeding output by 10,000 tons, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report yesterday. Demand rose 1.7 percent last year, the bank said. The metal will average $5,587 a metric ton in 2006, up 16 percent from a previous forecast, Goldman said. Prices have gained 37 percent this year after climbing 40 percent in 2005.

``We have enormous demand from customers this year, which is much higher than expected,'' said Peter Schubert, marketing manager of Germany's MKM GmbH, Europe's fifth-largest copper fabricator. ``Our stocks are very low.''

Copper for delivery in three months climbed $7 to $6,110 a metric ton at 2:24 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange after reaching $6,135, the highest ever. Prices have climbed 6.7 percent this week, the biggest such gain since late January.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 28 2006, 06:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: jbmurc on Tuesday 28/03/06 05:03pm

I'm still trying to work out what I've missed.....???
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 19 2006, 08:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

The acquisition of the ISMC Group on 1 June 2005 brought to Hyro’s operation the required management rigour, process and delivery capabilities the Company needed at this juncture. The result of the aggregated business is an end to end Online Services Company, where Hyro:

· Defines the online strategy;
· Uses online services to reach and automate customer servicing;
· Defines channel strategies and leverages all digital channels;
· Implements, operates and supports technology, campaigns, and supporting processes; and
· Implements Government Online frameworks and digital infrastructure using proprietary products.

Prior to the acquisition, components of these services had previously been provided by the different segments of the since consolidated business.

The acquisition of HotMagna in September 2005 brought to Hyro’s operation the required High End technical skills that are in great demand by our clients. This acquisition was accretive to Hyro’s results and value. HotMagna brought with it clients that could be serviced by the broader aggregated service offering, and provides a deeper level of technical skills to fulfil the market demands and growth targets. The founding members of the HotMagna business augment and compliment the Hyro executive team.

With both of these acquisitions the Company has created the required scale and delivery capabilities to commence and deliver on its commercial objectives and achieve the growth that it has predicted for the next three years.

The International operations of the Company have been rationalised with the closure of the Singapore, Hong Kong and China offices. Hyro Thailand operation was a cash drain for most of the year, however a restructure of the services offering and refocus of the business from a resources provider to a full system integrator, as well as the abandonment of the proposed Ring Zero Merger
has turned this business around.

The Hyro Thailand business is projecting to increase revenues by 60% and deliver the earnings and cash generation expected and projected for the Company during the coming year, 2006.

I commend our entire team on their hard work and commitment to driving the required change and
investing their energy and efforts in creating the platform for growth from 2006.


Indications and projections for 2006 will see the Company record over a 100% revenue growth, with positive earnings and cash generation from operations.


Online Services have now emerged as a core part of business of all companies and governments. Success in Online Services implementation requires the bringing together of skills in marketing, technology and services delivery. Hyro is the only listed Online Services Company in Australia with a pure focus and extensive experience with end-to-end delivery, able to connect strategies for the growing online advertising and communications market with the technology required to support it.

Our domain knowledge in the Government services and solutions area, and the best of breed “CITR Access Point product-stack” which has been developed, implemented and maintained within our joint venture with the University of Queensland, has created a solid foundation for our Government services vertical. This has facilitated Hyro becoming a strategic partner with Federal and State Governments, jointly architecting and developing solutions to provide and support the channels that Government uses to transact, communicate and disseminate information and knowledge in these new emerging digital economies.

Continued demand for these services, both locally and
internationally, are expected to provide the projected growth in this part of the business.

The demand being experienced in the online services space reaffirms Hyro’s strategy to position itself as a “one-stop-shop” for Online Services. The company anticipates that this market trend will translate into the increased revenue expectations in line with revenues and earnings projections previously announced to the market. The company has been actively working on supporting these growth projections through increased hiring, specifically in project delivery and account management. A capital raising program was successfully concluded in March 2006 to provide the capital required for these opportunities, as well as to strengthen the Hyro Balance Sheet.

The Hyro Team has commenced the year with a number of pleasing results, including the addition of a number of new clients and commencement of several significant projects. The company is launching the real-time 3G delivery of 8 channels of mobile video content for the Commonwealth Games for Telstra in March, on top of the mobile applications already delivered. The team has
delivered a number of online campaigns for major brands such as Lion Nathan, Medibank and Canon this past year and is facing increased demand for these services.

The spread of Government engagements at all levels of government and the contracted services by our major corporate clients for our end-to-end, online services sees Hyro with a backlog of contracted engagements entering the new year, representing a significant component of our revenue targets for 2006. Finally, the previously announced contracted engagements in the Hyro Thailand subsidiary have provided the commercial turn-around of this business and the platform to capture the growth potential in Asia.

I, and my fellow directors remain confident that the company is now in an appropriate, strong position
to further build on the success and realise the market opportunity before it.

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 13 2006, 08:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

So, you could say Strikes shares are the underlying in a basic derivative??

Regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 13 2006, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

What does it actually mean?? The only benefit I can see is public awarness.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 10 2006, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Either there is something we've missed, or these's something we don't know...

Going off last quarters sales of 631 tonnes for $3.4mill, this next quarters sales of around 940 tonnes will bring in $5.07 mill, production expenditure will most likely be reduced to around $3mill which will put them at about breakeven for the quarter, after that they should start producing around 1000 tonnes+ a quarter.

Plus they have Uranium tennaments.

Sounds alright to me, but what have I missed??
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 4 2006, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: pythagoras7 on Thursday 19/01/06 10:51pm

Excellent result, considering the 'incident' that slowed production at the start of the month.

If March has no 'Incedents' I would expect around 320+ tonnes giving the quater a total of 950+.

Looks to me that price is being kept down (1mill at 6c, interested to see if they are still there on Monday now the special crossing has gone through.), this stock should take off over then next few weeks.

Regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 28 2006, 02:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167



Compelling value proposition: Lack of market awareness of the company owing to (1) its restructuring and (2) the general lack of coverage of the stock on ASX prior to its AIM listing, has left GVM’s shares trading at a subdued level, given the potential of its coal assets and the earnings quality of its metals processing activity. A higher profile due to the recent AIM listing and impending newsflow on the coal properties has the potential to lead to a correction in the GVM share price


􀂃 Coal is key: Through the strategic acquisition of NiMag, GVM has established a healthy interest in metals processing. Yet, as evidenced by the Holfontein project, coal is the key component of overall corporate strategy. Thus going forward we expect growth to arrive from two areas, Metals Processing and Coal, with the steady income stream of the former underpinning acquisitions and development for the latter

Potential to become a leading South African coking coal producer: GVM began its coal interest with the purchase of 49% in the Holfontein project. The recent scoping study has confirmed that the property holds an indicated coal resource of over 56m tonnes with around 22m saleable tonnes - higher than Bisichi Mining (with 14m tonnes), although GVM trades at a substantial discount on resources based measures. GVM is also advancing opportunities to acquire further South African coal assets, with the goal of establishing a position as one of the region’s leading coal producers

Positive results: The annual accounts show that NiMag has experienced healthy trading conditions and markedly improved profitability. Again, while NiMag’s importance to GVM’s longer term strategy should not be overstated, the steady revenue stream (currency fluctuations notwithstanding) should provide a basis to finance further bolt-on acquisitions as well as facilitate the purchase of larger assets in the Coal Division

The AIM listing is important to improving the profile of the company in order to emphasise the positive moves made by management and establish a fair valuation for the stock. Improved access to the capital markets is likely to expedite growth

Finances and valuation: Given the progress made so far, GVM’s stated objective of significantly increased earnings appears readily achievable as Holfontein comes on stream. In light of the firm base established (NiMag) and the considerable inherent growth potential (Holfontein and additional coal prospects), we believe that the current valuation seems unreasonably low. The current price leaves the shares trading at 7x clean historic earnings and gives little value for the coal assets

We believe that the development of Holfontein could act as a powerful catalyst for GVM’s share price if the company successfully achieves its operational milestones. A bankable feasibility study this year will precede full scale mine development and we expect to see known resources converted into a producing mine by mid 2007

Valuation
The current valuation does not appear to reflect the intrinsic value of GVM’s underlying assets or prospects for future growth. Possible explanations for the present valuation in our view are a lack of market awareness of the company following its restructuring and the general lack of coverage of the stock on ASX before its recent AIM listing. As such we may see the listing acting as a catalyst for re-rating, and we have already seen some upward momentum. Earnings based, NPV and sum of the parts valuation techniques all support the case for re-rating.
There are several short term drivers that we believe may impact the share price:
1) The AIM listing is bringing increased investor awareness to the stock and should aid the move towards fair value.
2) The scoping study helps to confirm the value of the Holfontein property, which should also ensure positive impetus for the shares. The feasibility study and corresponding upgrade to ‘measured’ category should ensure continued momentum.
3) We anticipate the acquisition of further, potentially much larger coal assets, and these should provide a substantial catalyst for valuation as GVM achieves critical mass.

While GVM is not risk free, it trades at a substantial discount to its coal sector peers. The present low valuation leaves the shares trading at 7x clean historic earnings. In our view a valuation of not less than 10x clean EPS for metals processing alone would be fair as the Holfontein project comes on stream. Applying a forward P/E of 10x to NiMag earnings would value the shares at 26p, 108% upside from the present share price (but would still attribute no value to the known coal resources). So far we have only considered an appropriate valuation for the metals processing division. There appears to be a compelling valuation case on the working assets alone and significant upside potential when the value of Holfontein and future coal deals is factored in.

Adding a Value For Holfontein: Given the extent of information available on the property (which includes a competent persons report and independent scoping study), the Holfontein project has been somewhat de-risked and can be introduced into the sum-of-the-parts valuation. GVM’s valuation currently encompasses little value for the property. One might argue that the project could be afforded a circa Ј6m valuation to reflect the project NPV (at 12%) as determined by the scoping study. It is too early to include the ‘blue sky element’ of the coal mining opportunities into the share price. That said, investors should be minded that the potential enlargement of GVM’s coal mining business is a key attraction going forward and, in our view, could produce a multiple of the current valuation.

In order to arrive at an appropriate valuation for in situ coal resources we have looked at the relative valuation of some AIM listed coal stocks. Bisichi Mining, in particular, holds mining assets principally in South Africa and is an ideal comparator given the similarities in both location and scale of assets. While GVM is not presently comparable in terms of profit generation in coal, the scale of the asset is more closely analogous. Bisichi operates a total in situ reserve of 14m tonnes and profits for last year were Ј2.4m. Using a reserves based methodology, the asset base of Bisichi is valued at Ј1.54 per coal tonne. Clearly if we use this as the basis for assessing GVM it suggests a potential valuation upward of Ј16m for the Holfontein property. We recognise that the project is at an earlier stage of asset development and believe that the successful upgrade of resources to the “measured” category will be an important value driver in the shorter term.

An implied potential future value of 42p suggests that GVM has scope to be materially undervalued taking into account the profitable NiMag division and existing coal resource at Holfontein.

The scoping study validates GVM’s existing data and provides a more accurate approximation of project economics. The outcome of the study was positive and indicates that mining at Holfontein is a commercial proposition. The total indicated coal resource amounts 56 million tonnes in situ including a saleable tonnage of 22mt. This comprises 8 million saleable tonnes of coking coal from seam No 5, and 14 million saleable tonnes of steaming coal from seam No 4. The scoping study further suggests that GVM can mine 140,000 tonnes per month equally divided between seams No 4 and 5. On this basis the project NPV at 10% is Ј16.6m with Ј8.1m attributable to GVM. The second round feasibility study will be undertaken in June 2006, with production likely to commence by mid 2007.

South Africa contains 5% (88 billion tonnes) of the world's bituminous coal resources and annually produces approximately 250 million tonnes which makes it the world’s fifth largest producer of hard coal. The Holfontein project is located within the Highveld coal field which currently accounts for a significant proportion of total South African production. The world market for coking coal is robust, underscored by large scale infrastructure development in China and leading to strong pricing for the commodity as charted below. Whilst South Africa’s role as a major coking coal producer is well established, it is perhaps less well known that the country is a sizeable market in itself and has in fact recently been importing the commodity for internal consumption.

Currently the South African electricity utility Eskom has a shortage and is buying in as much low-grade thermal coal as can be produced in the Highveld coal field. The competent persons report also found that low phosphorus metallurgical coal is in short supply in South Africa in general and that coal production is being augmented with imported coking coal. Given these strong demand characteristics, it is envisaged that coal mined from Holfontein will serve predominantly local demand, which has positive implications for project NPV. Prices in the region may not meet the peaks found in some other areas but the emergence of strong South African demand dramatically improves GVM’s access to market and lowers the burden of costly export infrastructure and reliance on secondary distributors. Accordingly the opportunity to sell predominantly into the South African market should be regarded as an encouraging development.

Acquired at a very low multiple (4.5x EBIT in March 2003 for R50m), NiMag was the first vital step in what would become a major repositioning of the GVM model. Indeed NiMag plays a key role in delivering GVM’s ongoing strategic objectives. With its steady revenue stream (currency fluctuations notwithstanding) NiMag should provide the platform from which to finance further bolt-on acquisitions as well as facilitate the purchase of larger coal assets. The business is based near Johannesburg but has a global presence selling its products into international markets such as the aerospace industry. NiMag’s strategy has been to target specific niche markets in which it can attain significant share, and this approach has enabled it to build a strong market position - in many instances to market leading levels - in its key product lines. NiMag manufactures nickel magnesium alloys, ferro nickel magnesium alloys, mater alloys, ferro silicon magnesium alloys and metal fibres which are used predominantly in the aeronautical industry and in specialist stainless steel applications. These markets are relatively small, but enable NiMag to target specific niche areas and avoid commodity pricing pressures.

GVM seeks to generate growth in Metals Processing on two levels. Firstly it has sought to expand the international distribution network, identifying new outlets for the product with China being a particular area of focus. Secondly, GVM is targeting a number of bolt-on acquisitions for NiMag which are likely to be small but immediately earnings enhancing and creating synergies in terms of economies of scale and new sales channels.

Conclusions
The strategic expansion into South African coal is based on solid demographics and we expect scope for additional exciting opportunities in that territory. Generally, mining companies at this stage are cash consuming with far off expectations of profit generation and while to an extent the same might be said of GVM’s coal assets, the NiMag division is profitable while Holfontein is due to be in production by mid 2007.
Increased awareness due to the AIM listing, new opportunities in coal and the potential for an uplift in valuation for the Holfontein project as it nears production should bode well for GVM.







http://www.gvm.com.au/images/gvm-22--vaifa.pdf
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 6 2006, 07:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

It would not surprise me if there is a placement this quarter just cover the cash levels until the real cash flows.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jan 5 2006, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: JMH03 on Thursday 05/01/06 02:28pm

Should hit Target next week, gas would start to show on weekend, hopefully.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 6 2005, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Don't forget they usually shut down Jan/Feb for the wet season.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 29 2005, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

TasGold has drilled several successful diamond core holes at the Narrawa Prospect, Gowrie Park EL located in moderately accessible north central Tasmania, including: 9m of 135g/t silver, 1.4g/t gold, 9.74% lead and 5.90% zinc from 53m downhole, 1.5m of 25.5g/t gold from surface and 4m of 10.9g/t gold from 42m.

Targets are large tonnage (~50Mt), low to medium grade (~2-4g/t) intrusive related stockwork Au gold and base metal deposits in high grade veins and skarns within part of the Dolcoath Granite aureole and surrounding rocks. Drilling problems forced the temporary cessation of hole NC 027 in December 2004, just prior to personnel and equipment being shifted to the summer drilling program at the SMRV project in the SW of Tasmania. Assay returns later showed hole NC 027 was terminated in a weighted interval of 4m of 10.9 g/t gold, with the last interval from 42-45.8m
containing 2.2g/t gold (this was incorrectly released as being 4m of 10.4 g/t Au from 39m depth). Significant base metals were also intersected over a 1m interval from 37-38m (2.33% zinc, 1.83% lead, 0.12g/t gold and 20g/t silver).

This hole was successfully deepened / completed to 83.8m on 21/8/2005 and it is important as the mineralisation is currently still open to the SE and is outside the present resource boundary of the Higgs Deposit.

Encouraging sulphide mineralisation was encountered from the previous end of hole of 42.0 to 55.3m, giving a total of >13m semi-massive pyrite mineralisation (including the previously reported 4m interval), with several minor zones of near massive sulphide over 20cm intervals. Galena and sphalerite locally reach 5% over 30cm, within a zone of 4 metres
wide at ~1 to 2% combined.

Drilling is continuing (now on hole NC 29) and excavator trenching to test near surface mineralisation in the vicinity of NC 25 is planned for early October.

The Narrawa Prospect, has an Inferred Resource of ~25,000 ounces of gold in 215,000 tonnes at 3.5 g/t Au, 1.5% Pb, 1.3% Zn and 23 g/t Ag and the Stormont Prospect has an Inferred Resource of ~15,000 ounces of 135,000 tonnes of 3.44 g/t Au and 0.21% Bi. Results in drill holes such as: near true width of 25.4m of 4.33 g/t Au (including 1.3m of 23.1g/t Au, plus 1m of 14.21g/t Au plus 1.15m of 12.13 g/t Au), 42m of 9.56 g/t Au in trench and 36.5 g/t Au at the end of development work in a short adit show significantly more drilling is warranted.

Management anticipate that additional drilling should lead to an increase in the Narrawa Creek (Higgs Deposit) Inferred
Resource.

REMEMBER: Always seek advice from a professional if you can find one, do your own research and trust nobody, trust nothing.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 13 2005, 06:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Copper Prices Climb Most in 3 Months Amid Drop in Inventories

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices surged the most in more than three months in New York as inventories declined, signaling increasing demand for the metal used in wiring and construction.

Global stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 675 metric tons, or 0.9 percent, to 70,850 tons, the biggest drop since Sept. 2. Copper prices fell 4.2 percent last week as supplies climbed 9.2 percent.

``The reason the market was under so much pressure was the gains we saw last week'' in stockpiles, said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. Some buyers see the drop in inventories as suggesting ``demand is getting back up to full speed,'' he said.

Copper futures for December delivery rose 4 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $1.644 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest increase for a most-active contract since June 3 and the first gain in five sessions.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price by a specific date.

Stockpiles have almost tripled since dropping to a 31-year low of 25,525 tons on July 22. Global demand for copper fell 2.1 percent in the first half to 8.27 million metric tons from 8.45 million tons a year earlier, the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group said last week.

A rebound from last week's low spurred buying by traders who follow historical price patterns known as technical indicators, Vaught said. Prices touched $1.585 on Sept. 9, the lowest in three weeks.

``There is some technical buying in the market,'' with support at $1.58 to $1.60 a pound, Vaught said. ``To have the market close above that was probably interpreted as supportive'' on Sept. 9, he said.

In London, prices rose $60, or 1.7 percent to $3,605 a ton ($1.6352 a pound), after climbing as high as $3.639.

``Some late-day consumer buyers'' helped push prices in London back through the $3,600 a ton level, Michael Guido, director of hedge-fund marketing and commodity strategy in New York for Paris-based Societe Generale SA, said in an e-mail message. ``Many were looking to buy closer to $3,500'' a ton, triggering more buying as prices surged, he said.

In Shanghai, copper for delivery in November, the most actively traded contract, rose 90 yuan, or 0.3 percent, to settle at 34,610 yuan a metric ton ($4,275) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange when trading closed.

China's copper consumption increased 13 percent in the first half of the year, the International Copper Study Group said last week. China is the biggest user of copper.

Assessing Katrina Damage

Copper prices may trade in a tight range in the coming months as the damage left by Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast region is assessed, some traders said. The hurricane devastated coastal areas in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and left 80 percent of New Orleans submerged.

``As we get closer to the mid- to late-fourth quarter and even the first quarter, we'll start to see how much rebuilding we need,'' said Scott Meyers, an analyst at Pioneer Futures Inc. in New York. ``The next big move is going to be up, and it is going to be related to the hurricane.''

Copper may trade in a range of $1.59 a pound to $1.65 a pound over the next two weeks, Meyers said.

Construction is the biggest use for copper. The average house contains about 400 pounds of the metal, according to industry estimates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...mmodity_futures
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 13 2005, 06:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

12 September 2005
Copper prices may decline; hurricane to limit demand

Source: Bloomberg

Copper prices may fall in London and New York this week as investment funds sell the metal on speculation U.S. demand may slow following Hurricane Katrina.

Seventeen of 22 traders, analysts, investors and copper users surveyed by Bloomberg on Sept. 8 and Sept. 9 predicted a decline. Four forecast a gain and one little change. The U.S. is the second-largest copper user. China is the biggest.

"Prices should fall a little as the funds are uncertain," John Meyer, an analyst in London for Numis Securities, said in an e-mail last week. "Mounting losses from Hurricane Katrina are a concern." Meyer forecasts copper will decline this week.

Copper for delivery in three months on the LME dropped 3.8 percent to $3,545 a metric ton last week. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for December delivery fell 4.2 percent to $1.604 a pound, the lowest closing price for a most-active contract since Aug. 18.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper for November delivery closed down 0.9 percent to 34,520 yuan ($4,264) a ton last week. Chinese prices include 17 percent tax and 2 percent import duty. The contract rose as much as 170 yuan, or 0.5 percent, to 34,690 yuan today.

U.S. President George W. Bush has approved $62.3 billion of federal relief spending after Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans and devastated the Gulf coast. It may take as long as 80 days to pump the water out of New Orleans, Col. Duane Gapinski of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Sept. 8.
Growth, jobs

The Congressional Budget Office said last week U.S. economic growth may be cut by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, while the nation may lose 400,000 jobs as a consequence of the disaster. The U.S. economy will grow at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, down from the 4.1 percent gain predicted a month ago, according to the median estimate of 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The disaster has become the costliest in U.S. history, surpassing the $20.5 billion of damage to south Florida wrought by Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

"The collateral damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is seen extending into various areas of the U.S. economy," said Angus MacMillan, an analyst in London for Bache Financial, in a Sept. 8 e-mailed report.

The U.S. may need to spend $600 billion to rebuild infrastructure, deal with diseases, deaths and damage to the environment, Germany's Die Welt newspaper reported Sept. 9, citing Claudia Kemfert, the Berlin-based DIW economic institute's energy expert.
Already slowed

Copper use in the U.S. had slowed before Katrina. In the first six months of 2005, consumption dropped 9.7 percent from a year earlier, according to data released on Sept. 9 by the International Copper Study Group, a Lisbon-based organization funded by copper producers.

"Copper demand appears to have fallen in the wake of Hurricane Katrina," said Thomas Au, an analyst at R.W. Wentworth in New York.

Copper consumption may rise as the U.S. economy recovers from the hurricane and begins reconstruction work, said Barclays Capital base metals analyst Ingrid Sternby in London. The U.S. economy may go "down then up," Sternby said in a Sept. 7 e- mailed report, citing Barclays's chief economist Larry Kantor.

Traders and copper users are also watching inventory levels, which have climbed in the past month as mining companies increase output to meet a forecast production shortfall. Stockpiles tracked by commodity exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai have surged 68 percent in the past month to 122,862 tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Copper production of 16 million tons last year fell short of demand by 709,000 tons, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report last month. There will be a surplus of 60,000 tons in 2005 and 310,000 tons in 2006, the bank said.


Still, copper output has been curbed by a strike at mines and plants operated by Asarco LLC, the second-biggest U.S. producer. The strike began July 2 after workers rejected a labor contract offered by management.

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=2246
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 11 2005, 08:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Base metals tumbled to lower closes across the board on the London Metal Exchange as a speculative sell-off hit sentiment across the complex, traders said.

Copper prices fell to around $US3,565 a tonne at one stage before partially bouncing and ending the kerb at $US3,590, a $US42 loss from Wednesday's close.

Traders said the negative technical close suggested that further losses were likely, with downside chart targets around recent lows in the $US3,540/3,550 area.

Sentiment was undermined by the perception LME stocks in Asia were likely to rise in the next few weeks as metal was shipped from China to take advantage of strong prices.

But European traders expected inventories, which have risen nearly three-fold from a 31-year low of 25,525 tonnes in late July, to start to fall again as consumers pick up material they put into warehouse to take advantage of high cash prices during August.

Elsewhere, losses were not as large – aluminium lost $US15 to end at $US1,838.

Zinc dropped $US3 to $US1,371, amid receding concerns about stocks in New Orleans, as there is availability elsewhere.

LME chief executive officer (CEO) Simon Heale said it will maintain its suspension of New Orleans warehouses for delivery of warranted metal until its employees can inspect for damage caused by Hurricane Katrina.

Nickel fell $US75 to $US14,425/14,450, lead eased $US7 to $US863, while tin was $US140 lower at $US6,800.

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=2220
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 9 2005, 07:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Some nickel projects may struggle as prices fall

Source: Dow Jones


See also:
Nickel Board

Nickel Catalog

Global zinc prices, which peaked in May this year, appear to be entering a long bear phase that could last well into 2008, Citigroup analyst Thomas Price said Thursday.

This could threaten the financial viability of some of the higher cost projects slated to come on line over the next few years, Price said.

But major producers said they would go ahead with most of the proposed projects that are based on lower, more realistic prices than currently available to producers.

At a nickel conference in Sydney Thursday, Price outlined Citigroup's bearish outlook for the metal, with prices set to continue easing from May's peak of US$8 a pound to an average US$6.63/lb this year.

The long-term outlook is even bleaker, Price said, with prices likely to average US$5/lb next year, US$4/lb in 2007 and between US$3.50/lb and US$4/lb in 2008.

The view is based on continued cutbacks in global stainless steel production, in which nickel is mostly used, and increasing scrap consumption.

The anticipated decline will bring nickel back to long-term trends after prices doubled over the last three years on surging China-led demand.

"Current producers are still going to make money from those prices but projects that still have to come on line would have to question their viability at those lower levels," he told Dow Jones Newswires on the sidelines of the conference.

Larger projects such as Inco Ltd.'s (N) Goro and Falconbridge Ltd.'s (FAL) Koniambo, both in New Caledonia, are still expected to perform at US$4/lb or US$3.50/lb but others, such as BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (BHP) Ravensthorpe may struggle, Price said.

Ravensthorpe, in Western Australia, appears to have passed the point of no return given BHP Billiton's commitment, but the company is likely seek synergies with the former assets of WMC Resources and expansions at the Yabulu refinery in Queensland to bring costs down.

"I still think Ravensthorpe's going to be a very tight operation from the analysis we've done," Price said.

Other projects are also likely to face delays and overhauls as prices ease.
Canico's Onca Puma likely facing delays

Price expects Canada's Canico Resource Corp. (CNI.T) to keep pushing out the start date and revising the development plan of its Onca Puma project in Brazil, for example, to seek greater efficiencies.

At the other end of the scale, small former WMC projects in Western Australia's Kambalda region such as Radio Hill are also prone to the risks of lower prices, he said.

The critical elements in determining a project's feasibility are ore grades, processing complexities and proximity to infrastructure and markets, rather than simply scale, he said.

Financing capacity is another determinant. Heron Resources Ltd.'s project in Kalgoorlie, for example, is likely to have struggled as a stand-alone project, but the input and expertise of shareholders Inco and BHP Billiton mean it is an almost certain starter, he said.

Heron managing director Ian Buchhorn, who was attending the conference, said the project is modelled on nickel prices of US$3.50/lb and operating costs of US$1.74/lb.

"It wouldn't concern us if prices come down because we never envisaged we'd be (producing) in the current price cycle," Buchhorn said. "It's a 25 year project at least."

"With a project of this size, you have to make your decision and go for it and you have to do it on the basis of on average long-term price, which is US$3.50/lb," he said.

Another Australian nickel project due to start producing in the coming years is Metallica Minerals Ltd.'s Nornico.

Managing Director Andrew Gillies said the project assumes operating costs of US$2/lb and long term nickel prices of US$9,000 a ton or about US$4/lb, which means the project still stacks up under Price's assumptions.

However, Gillies questions Citigroup's bearish assumptions.

"If there's a 5%-10% variation in their forecasting, it could have a dramatic effect in terms of China's demand," he said. "It also assumes all projects coming into production come in on time."
Output growth slowing despite China

Despite China's booming industry, global stainless steel growth is slowing, with first-half output this year up 5.7% compared with 7.8% in 2004 and further cutbacks likely to mean negative growth in the second half, according to Citigroup.

Falling stainless steel prices and higher alloy surcharges are behind the cutbacks, Price said.

Increasing scrap metal competitiveness and availability are also likely to eat into global demand for primary nickel, according to Citigroup.

On the supply side, growth in mine production has been less than expected, offsetting demand weakness.

However, Citigroup still expects an increase in mine supply of almost 100,000 metric tons next year, half from Inco's Voisey's Bay operation in Canada and half from expansions at small operations mostly in Western Australia and Europe.

Key areas of short-term supply uncertainty include a protracted strike at Inco's Manitoba operations, and labour disruptions at Voisey's Bay, he said.

New projects and capacity expansions in China are almost entirely supporting forecast growth in global stainless steel production, Price said.

Global primary nickel demand for 2004-2008 is forecast to increase at 3.5% thanks to China's 26% growth, as demand in Europe and Taiwan stays flat. Japanese demand is expected to fall 6.5%, South Korean demand fall 4% and U.S. demand fall 1.4%.
◄ Back

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=2218
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 8 2005, 07:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Metals craze boosts prices far into future - BarCap
The feeding frenzy for metals has driven speculators to snap up contracts more than five years ahead, boosting prices far into the future, Barclays Capital said yesterday.

With three-month futures for many London Metal Exchange (LME) products at or near multi-year highs, flagship copper is at record peaks, fuelled by strong demand from growing economies like China and fund buying.

"With prices so high, market participants are reluctant to buy three-months contracts so consumers and funds are looking to buy further out along the forward curve," Ingrid Sternby, base metals analyst at the investment bank, told Reuters in an interview.

Investors are buying forward contracts as far ahead as 63 months in the future - the maximum term traded on the LME - in search of bargains.

"This means that consumers will have to live with a much higher price environment than in the past," Sternby said.

63-month copper futures contracts have risen from $1 833 a ton in June 2004 to $2 438 this week, up 33%.

In the same period three-months prices have risen 45% to a record $3 725, but Sternby said volatility in far forward dates was usually far below nearby dates.

"This takes some of the heat out of the nearby part of the forward curve and we are seeing far forward prices well supported or moving higher.

Sternby said metals markets, along with energy, had a similar fundamental structure - under-investment in new supply and higher trend rates in demand growth.

Sternby said there had been a huge investor interest in commodities and she saw no signs of a slow down.

"Many of these investors are looking at commodities to diversify portfolios. A lot of that money is in for the long term and is unlikely to be removed due to short term fluctuations."

She said investors were becoming more sophisticated, looking at markets where nearby prices are higher than further forward known as backwardation.

That means investments are self financing - lending prompt metal to the market at a premium, which can be set against storage and insurance costs.

"Investors are looking more and more at markets that are in backwardation. Until recently the main investor focus has been in broad commodity indices such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, heavily geared towards energy."

"But now we are seeing more interest in structured notes, more geared toward the base metals," she said.

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=73587
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 8 2005, 08:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Important Sections of Report:

We expect to conclude negotiations on the arsenic and the battery projects in the September quarter of 2005.

During the period from May to June 2005 the market for selenium altered with demand and price indicators falling. The market prior to the adjustment remained strong through the year with pricing moving from US$18 per lb in July 2004 to US$48 per lb in June 2005. We anticipate a downward price adjustment to be reflected in the September quarter of 2005, however expect overall selenium sales results to remain positive.

In order to take advantage in the selenium chemical market, we have recently moved to produce value added selenium chemicals such as sodium selenate used as an ingredient in animal feed supplements particularly in Australia and New Zealand. We are exploring the possibility for additional selenium feed sources from major international smelting operations whose residues are mainly complex type low grade selenium tellurium bearing streams. In treating these types of materials, Hydromet expects to enjoy favourable technical and processing advantages compared to competitors treating these residues in the world today.

During the period from May to October we will be addressing a number of issues to optimise the production of zinc sulphate required to maintain a profitable outcome for Hydromet and at the same time recognising the needs of our clients.

We are negotiating long term contracts with two major gold producers in Western Australia to immobilise arsenic bearing flue dust from their mine sites at our Unanderra facility. After completion of successful plant trials for both clients, we initially explored the possibility of setting up two processing plants on each of their sites. Recent discussions however have highlighted a feasible option to treat both clients waste at Hydromet’s Unanderra plant. We foresee some legitimate advantages such as minimising operating and capital cost, established infrastructure, regulatory approvals and existing efficient management controls at Unanderra which would be more favourable than remote project management. We are in the process of obtaining necessary regulatory approvals from NSW Department of Environment and Conservation for both specific wastes to be treated at Unanderra. These projects have the potential to generate additional revenue streams in the vicinity of $2.5 – 3 million per year for the Unanderra operation. I would hope this would add between $0 and $1mill to Net Profit.

The proposed mercury stabilisation project at Zinifex site in Hobart has made some progress with local council granting clearance to construct a special landfill disposal cell to accept the immobilised mercury waste. We are hoping to commence processing by January 2006. The contractual tonnage to be treated by Hydromet is now estimated to be approximately 3,500Mt as a one off stockpile and lower annual arising on a long term basis.

At 30 June 2005 the consolidated entity held a cash reserve of $3.4 million. The balance is after early repayment of $700,000 debentures. In addition, we held finished saleable products, consisting predominantly selenium stock, with a market value of approximately $2 million. Borrowings were $1.1 million which comprised the outstanding balance of debentures. There has been a significant net cash improvement over the financial year compared to that of 2004.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 8 2005, 06:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

DJ Comex Copper Review:Retreats Modestly On Long Liquidation

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


Liquidation pushed high-grade copper futures modestly lower in New York
Wednesday, with traders and analysts characterizing the market as range-bound
at the moment.

The most-active December copper contract settled down 140 points at $1.6470
per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The futures came into the session with a softer tone. Traders reported
liquidation in both Comex and London Metal Exchange dealings.

A Comex trader commented that the market's inability to build on last week's
$1.6910 contract high in the December futures may have encouraged some longs to
exit and book profits.

"One thing I've noticed is the market is not as frenetic as it had been and
the volume has slowed down a little bit," said Bill O'Neill, one of the
principals with LOGIC Advisors.

"There are some conflicting things. LME stocks are up, but there is some talk
on the Comex that we could see some stock reductions there. So they are kind of
offsetting each other."

London Metal Exchange warehouse stockpiles climbed another 1,700 metric tons
to a 10-month high of 71,150, according to data released overnight. The most
recent Comex stocks data, released late Tuesday afternoon, were up 20 short
tons to 9,626.

"The market is in kind of a state of neutrality at the moment," said O'Neill.
"I think it's expensive. But I have to say it's holding in very well in this
little mini correction it's having. It certainly doesn't look like it's about
to collapse."

A trader commented that there is a general reluctance to try to push the
market much lower, since exchange inventories remain historically low despite
recent builds. In fact, he said, some speculators might even be using dips as a
buying opportunity.

Not many participants "are giving in just yet," he said.

"We're range-bound right back where we were a week ago," said another.

O'Neill noted that the funds have continued to prop up prices lately.

"Interestingly enough, yesterday there was fund buying over at the LME," he
said. "You see some liquidation and some hedge selling. But the funds still
seem to have an interest in this market and are keeping prices in a reasonably
firm trading pattern."

For now, said O'Neill, December copper appears to be range-bound between
$1.62 and $1.66.

"I think we could go back and forth between that area for a while here," he
said. "No one is really sure of the impact of (Hurricane) Katrina."

Some analysts have suggested the devastation and higher energy prices that
resulted from the storm could slow U.S. economic growth and thus copper demand.
Others, however, look for increased copper demand down the road due to a
massive reconstruction effort.


Settlements (ranges include overnight and day sessions):
Sept (HGU05) $1.7210; down 1.50c; Range $1.7175-$1.7400
Dec (HGZ05) $1.6470; down 1.40c; Range $1.6405-$1.6650


-By Allen Sykora, Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
allen.sykora@dowjones.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-07-05 1344ET

Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ info: 82100
N/DJCS,N/DJME,N/OSCM,N/OSME,N/OSOV,N/OSTR,N/CMD,N/CMM,N/CPE,N/DJWI,N/DRV,N/FCTV
N/MET,N/MKC

FSN2100 CMOT COMMENTS METALS
2005-09-07 17:44:02 UTC
^^^^^^

http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp...090194683297856
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 8 2005, 06:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167



CAPE TOWN (Business Day) -- The global iron-ore market should be able to find room for a significant new entrant by 2010 despite the significant increase in capacity from the major producers, according to the latest iron-ore report from Canaccord Capital Corporation.

In the past 14 years China has been the main source of growth in demand for iron ore. Chinese demand grew about 21% a year in that period compared with a 1% increase in demand from the rest of the world.

Canaccord expects China will be the main contributor to growth in iron-ore demand in future, but this will be at the expense of demand elsewhere.

China is expanding its domestic supply of iron ore, but even if it expands to 131-million tonnes of iron ore by next year there will be room for a producer of about 30-million tonnes a year.

If China does not expand production above last year’s levels, there could be room in the market for an additional 50-million tonnes a year of new production by 2010. Niche offerings from new entrants should easily find buyers, the report says.

Canaccord expects crude steel production to reach 1,321-million tonnes a year by 2010, 3.8% higher than last year, and that by 2010 China will account for 38% of global steel production.

By 2010 demand for imported iron ore will be 903-million tonnes, representing growth of 5.5% a year.

While iron-ore prices have more than doubled in the past two years, Canaccord expects them to decline in the next four years. This still means prices will be 12% to 42% higher than they were in 1992.

Assuming the major iron-ore producers deliver their expansion projects on time, the iron-ore market should remain tight until 2008. But there are considerable risks that these projects will not come on stream as scheduled, and that China will not expand production of iron ore at the maximum level.

There are major expansion projects under way at BHP Billiton [NYSE:BHP], Samarco, Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) [NYSE:RIO], Casa de Pedra (CSN), Rio Tinto [NYSE:RTP] and Kumba.

BHP Billiton expects to expand total capacity at its Western Australian operations by more than 40-million tonnes a year by 2008. Samarco, owned 50-50 by BHP Billiton and CVRD, is considering a 7-million-tonnes-a-year expansion at Ponto Ubu in Brazil to bring capacity up to 21-million tonnes a year by 2008.

CVRD has capacity to increase its production of iron ore to 287-million tonnes a year from 211-million last year, Canaccord says.

These are aggressive targets, requiring rapid infrastructure and mine planning.

Also in Brazil, CSN plans to increase production to 40-million tonnes a year by 2007 from 16-million last year.

Rio Tinto plans to increase total production from its Western Australian operations to 176-million tonnes a year in 2007 from 100-million in 2001. The expansion projects are already under way.

Kumba plans to increase production from Sishen to 50-million tonnes a year from 34-million now through using current waste material and some new material.

Other expansion, such as developing Sishen South, will depend on the export channel capacity available in SA.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=12695
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 7 2005, 10:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

What an Excellent result from Hydromet today.

Lets have a close look:

P/S = 1.08 - Less than one means it's under valued
P/BV = 1.63
EV/S = 1.3 - means good longterm value.
P/E = 8.87 - Means under valued, should sit some where between 10 - 15. a P/E of 12 would give a share price of around 8.6c.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 7 2005, 08:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: michaelk on Wednesday 07/09/05 08:20am

I must admit I am very disapointed in the what has unfolded for this company, as it could have been very strong in this high commodity priced enviroment.

What I think they should do is employ a business manager/marketer and just get on with the job of production, as they are not good managers and let someone who understands that proccess to get on with pushing the company.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 6 2005, 07:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Copper Set to Drop??

Copper Drops in London on Speculation Smelter Supply Will Grow

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell in London on speculation supplies of the metal will grow as companies such as Vedanta Resources Plc and Jiangxi Copper Co. expand production capacity.

Copper producers have increased output to meet demand for the metal used in plumbing and wiring. Jiangxi, China's biggest copper producer, said last month it boosted first-half output 17 percent. London-based Vedanta, the largest copper producer in India, started its Tuticorin smelter in April.

``We are bearish on copper because we expect the smelter bottleneck to ease and demand growth to remain weak,'' Heath Jansen, Craig Sainsbury and Thomas Wrigglesworth, London-based analysts at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a Sept. 3 e-mailed report. Bloomberg
  Forum: Macro Factors

chris
Posted on: Sep 6 2005, 07:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

One more thing, copper prices should plunge over the coming months.

http://360.yahoo.com/blaak_chris

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 6 2005, 05:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Your right, it does not.

AUM's Copper Sulphate is worth substantially less than the price of copper, unlike what they told the market in the lead-up to production.

This company is far from any you should place your money in until they clean up their act.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 31 2005, 10:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: Pedro on Wednesday 31/08/05 08:49pm

Pedro, I think your looking at from the wrong angle.

The Turkish assets are worth X and sold to Zorlu for X less $10mill + $30Mill, so AZZ has actually retained $10mill of the value of the Turkish assets, along with a $30mill payment.

Regardless of whether the $10mill comes from AYO or Zorlu they ended up with $40mill, not $30mill. If the $10mill remained with AYO Zorlu would still have paid $40mill as AYO's value would have increased $10mill.

Its just a dodgey accounting way so the $10mill never comes from Zorlu's pocket, meanwhile AZZ strips AYO of it's cash.

Make sense??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 27 2005, 05:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

My point is that people would be reluctant to buy into the company on this basis.

It won't change the companies value on an asset basis, but on a cashflow basis. As the court case is to recoupe costs and tax credits.

As the 17m shares form part of an issue of 25m at around 10c earlier this year (or was it late last year, you can look that one up) and they sold 7m of those at or around 10c, also SMO has taken out a court order stopping the sale of those shares. So with this information at hand one would conclude that the moment the order was lifted the holder would sell.

It will change the TRUE value of the company, however, it will slow the share prices rise.

regards.


PS. also, with the amount of copper coming into the LME the copper price is starting to look over valued.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 27 2005, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Pending court case and if they lose there could be around 17mill shares dumped on the market.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 22 2005, 09:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: theking on Monday 22/08/05 09:26pm

What?
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 15 2005, 08:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

can someone explain to me how the price of oil is effected by the ouput of a refinery??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: Aug 13 2005, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Totally agree about buy-backs, they are for companies whos managment who do not know how to grow, so at the end of the year they can say 'Hey look at what a good job we have done as the share price has risen steadily, where's my bonus!!." what a load of hog wash they are indeed.

I would like to see TOX aquire or build a new facility in the eastern states.

regards.

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 11 2005, 04:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

It must be some strange trading tactic, it appears they are doing the same thing with Alphawest wich is currently being takenover by optus.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 10 2005, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: michaelk on Wednesday 10/08/05 12:51pm

There has been no sales agreement, they just had a visit.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 4 2005, 06:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: arthur on Wednesday 03/08/05 07:24pm

Thats the problem, one real buyer, the rest of the trades was serious selling.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 29 2005, 03:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

May Just Make it.....


· Nimag’s earnings before tax increased by 222% from the third quarter to R3,703,000
(A$729 000). Unaudited profit before earnings and tax for the year is R11,884,000
(A$2,339,700).

· The Group generated A$1,300,000 cash from operations during the year.

· The insitu indicated coal resource of 18,482,274 tonnes has been determined for 5
seam at the Holfontein Coal Project. The project is predicted to yield 8 million tonnes
of saleable coal.


Discussion of Results

Nimag Group of Companies (GVM-74% with option to acquire balance by share issue)
As predicted, Nimag showed an excellent recovery from its weak third quarter. This was
fuelled by a combination of a weakening in the Rand against the US$, consumer acceptance
of higher nickel prices, improved domestic demand and the increasingly strong performance
of Nimag’s ancillary products and trading activities.

Though the third quarter of the calendar year is traditionally a slower period for Nimag due to
summer holidays in Europe, its performance should remain positive due to the improved
domestic demand and weaker Rand. The Rand is expected to remain at its current levels,
which significantly improves Nimag’s domestic competitiveness and its overall profitability.
Nimag also succeeded in lowering its stock holding during the quarter and the difficulties
reported during the third quarter have all been resolved.

In summary, despite a weak third quarter, Nimag has shown a significant recovery and has
succeeded in delivering a profit before interest and tax which is in line with management’s
expectations and predictions. Market conditions have also changed favourably and the
outlook for 2006 is very positive.


The company continues to seek growth opportunities both within the Nimag Group as well a
through acquisition and the success of its newly established trading arm and ancillary
products are evident of Nimag’s strive towards adding value through related business
opportunities.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 29 2005, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

They may well need that $320,000 now another share issue is above the share price.

they are hard workers, but not shrude business men.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 28 2005, 10:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

28 July 2005
SMC Gold Limited
ACN 071 349 249
Level 3
457 Upper Edward Street
Brisbane
Queensland, Australia
PO Box 313
Spring Hill Qld 4004
Telephone +61 7 3839 4166
Facsimile +61 7 3839 7644
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT


SMC FORECASTS US$5.1M (A$6.7M) NET
CASHFLOW IN CALENDAR 2005


· US$22M in calendar 2007 forecast

SMC Gold Limited is a Brisbane-based mining company with coppergold
operations in Chile where it plans a three-fold expansion by 2007.
SMC Gold Limited (SMC) forecasts net cashflow of US$5.1 million (A$6.7 million) for
the 2005 calendar year following the current expansion of operations in Chile,
Managing Director Rob Kidd announced today.

Net cashflow is forecast to rise to US$22.0 million (A$28.9 million) in calendar 2007
as a result of the second stage of expansion, he said.

The forecasts are based on a copper price of US$1.50 a pound (price currently
US$1.68). See table below.
Mr Kidd is holding briefings on the company in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne over
the next few days.

He will move from Brisbane to Chile next month “to provide executive management
leadership for our excellent workforce headed by two highly experienced people, one
of whom has recently transferred there from Australia.
“We are rapidly building a mid-sized copper and gold company in Chile, the world’s
largest copper producing nation, based on our established operations, good mineral
resources and our experienced senior management team,” he said.
“We plan to treble our metal production over two years, and substantially increase
our net cashflows. Beyond 2007, we have opportunities to grow further, based on
further resource definition, exploration potential and good value acquisitions.
“SMC is in a strong financial position, with cashflow funding expansion without
planned recourse to the shareholders or the market.”

Mr Kidd said that the current expansion was expected to be completed next month
and comprised:
· Cinabrio copper mine output increasing from 1100 to 1400 tonnes of ore per
day
· Tensionales gold mine increasing from 40 to 100 tonnes of ore per day
· Dalmacia copper mine commencing production from September at 200
tonnes of ore per day
· Punitaqui processing plant throughput increasing from 900 to 1500 tonnes of
ore per day, with plant improvements to increase recovery rates from 62% to
80% and copper concentrate grade from 24% to 30%.
The second stage expansion will comprise:
· Further doubling of Punitaqui processing plant throughput to 3000 tonnes of
ore per day by 2007
· Increasing mine production at Cinabrio and Tensionales and new mines at
Dalmacia, Diatrema and Farellon to lift both copper and gold output
Copper production is planned to increase from an estimated 4,000 tonnes in calendar
2005, to 6,600 tonnes in 2006 to 13,000 tonnes in 2007.

Gold production is planned to increase from an estimated 2,000 oz in 2005, to 3,400
oz in 2006 to 6,600 oz in 2007. However, the company is confident that it can exceed
these estimates for gold production.

A further expansion will follow if the company is able to prove up sufficient ore to
justify an SX/EW plant to treat copper oxide ores.

Current mineral resources are estimated to total the equivalent of 2 million oz of gold
or 317,000 tonnes of copper. Exploration potential is estimated at a further 2 to 3
million oz of gold equivalent.


Mr Kidd said that a current dispute with the previous owner was over delivery of
various assets which SMC claimed ought to have been acquired in Chile as part of its
purchase contract and would have no impact on SMC’s ownership of the tenements.
An Australian court has issued an injunction preventing the previous owner from
selling 17 million shares and SMC has withheld a scheduled payment of US$1.75
million to the previous owner. Negotiations with the previous owner are proceeding.

Increasing Cashflow (before tax) – calendar years
 2005 – US$5.1m (Cu price @ 150USc/lb for H2 2005)
 2006 – US$9.9m (Cu price @ 150USc/lb)
- US$6.4m (Cu price @ 125USc/lb)
- US$3.6m (Cu price @ 105Usc/lb)
· 2007 – US$22.0m (Cu price @ 150USc/lb)
- US$15.0m (Cu price @ 125Usc/lb)
- US$ 9.4m (Cu price @ 105USc/lb)

For further information contact Rob Kidd on 07 38394166 or 0409 872544
Rob Kidd
Managing Director
In accordance with the Australian Stock Exchange Limited Listing Rules 5.10, 5.12 and 5.13, technical
information contained in this report has been compiled by a competent person who is a member of the
Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and who has consented in writing to the inclusion of
such technical information in the form in which it appears in this report. The competent person is
Robert G Kidd who is the Managing Director of SMC Gold Limited.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 18 2005, 12:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Actually, just looking at the production figures for the quarter, I find them a little disapointing, I had hoped they would produce twice the amount that they actually did.

Here's my guestimation from an earlier post:

So at a gestimation, lets hope Revenue will be the following for the quarter:

April: 5.5x30 = 165
May: 8x31 = 248
June: 8x30 = 240

Total production = 653 tonnes
Revenue for Quarter = $653,000
Less Interest Payment = $378,000 (not taking into account current Notes Issue).


As they only produced 320t, they should make an approx. $200,000 loss for the quarter.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 13 2005, 08:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Just thought I'd post this as GVM seems abit unloved here at the moment.

Just thinking about it.

They have a 51% share in the coal tenaments with 8mill tonnes recoverable for sale.

At around USD$50pt thats $400,000,000/2 for them minus costs, although transport may be low as the railway runs through the property.

Hmmm, may be worth a serious look early next year.(?)
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 11 2005, 10:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Just the consolidation to worry about now.

With the shares going to 20c after the restructure they may wonder down to around 10c->15c, and then comes the issue of new shares, why else would you restructure??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 5 2005, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Should have around $3.8m in cash now.

At a conservative estimate of two million barrels of oil at USD$37 ((Two Mill. x USD$37 = USD$74,000,000)/A$.65 = A$113,846,153.85 - A$25mill. for costs = A$138,846,153.85 in after some costs asset value, above ground), A$138,846,153.85/250,451,954 = $0.5543823940379399 a share. In ground value is around half this number.

Seems a little undervalued at this level, drilling second half.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jun 24 2005, 06:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: thorny on Thursday 23/06/05 10:46pm

Thats due to the latest issue, not on market buying.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jun 23 2005, 07:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

That said, MBL now own INL as INL have watered down shareholders stakes considerably and they are along, long way off from production. Where TOX on the other hand have a growing income.

Tox this year INL next.

regards.


Ps. I would not be surprised if there is a few mor MBL type watering down of shareholders funds in INL before any real cashflow.

Sorry for talking INL in the TOX forum fans.

Currently holding TOX + TOXO.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jun 14 2005, 08:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Any comments regarding todays AGM, good, bad or indeferent. Anyone dare to put a value on it??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 31 2005, 07:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GE26Dj02.html

May 26, 2005

The real problems with $50 oil
By Henry C K Liu

After oil prices peaked above US$58 a barrel in early April, and stayed around their current $50 range, the White House announced that it wanted oil to go back down to $25 a barrel. There is a common misconception in life that if only things could go back to the ways they were in the good old days, life would be good again like in the good old days. Unfortunately, good old days never return as good old days because what makes the old days good is often just bad memory. The problem with market capitalism is that while markets can go up and markets can go down, they never end up in the same spot. The term "business cycle" is a misnomer because the end of the cycle is a very different place from the beginning of a cycle. A more accurate term would be "business spiral", either up or down or simply sideways.

Oil is a good example whereby this market truism can be observed. When oil rises above $50 a barrel and stays there for an extended period, the resultant changes in the economy become normalized facts. These changes go way beyond fluctuations in the price of oil to produce a very different economy. Below are 10 new economic facts created by $50 oil.

Fact 1: Oil-related transactions involving the same material quantity involve greater cash flow, with each barrel of oil generating $50 instead of $25. The United States now consumes about 20 million barrels of oil each day, about 25% of world consumption of 84 million barrels. At $50 a barrel, the aggregate oil bill for the US comes to $1 billion a day, $365 billion a year, about 3% of 2004 US gross domestic product (GDP). About 60% of US consumption is imported at a cost of $600 million a day, or $219 billion a year. Oil and gas import is the single largest component in the US trade deficit, not imports from Japan or China.

As oil prices rise, consumers pay more for heating oil and gasoline, airlines pay more for jet fuel, utility companies pay more for oil, petrochemical companies pay more for raw material, and the whole economy pays more for electricity. Now those extra payments do not disappear into a black hole in the universe. They go into someone's pocket as revenue and translate into profits for some businesses and losses for others. In other words, higher energy prices do not take money out of the economy, they merely shift profit allocation from one business sector to another. More than $200 billion a year goes to foreign oil producers who then must recycle their oil dollars back into US Treasury bonds or other dollar assets, as part of the rules of the game of dollar hegemony. The simple fact is that a rise in monetary value of assets adds to the monetary wealth of the economy.

Fact 2: Since energy is a basic commodity and oil is the predominant energy source, high energy cost translates into a high cost of living, which can also result in a higher standard of living if income can keep up. High energy cost translates into reduced consumption in other sectors unless higher income can be generated from the increased cash flow. Unfortunately, in the modern market economy, higher income for the general public often means working longer hours, since pay raises typically have a long time lag behind price increases. Working longer hours does not translate into productivity increases, but it does increase income. Those who cannot find overtime work will look for a second or third job, or put a hitherto non-working spouse back in the labor market. This generally lowers the standard of living, with less time for rest and leisure and for family and social life.

With higher prices, companies will hire more workers, since with wages remaining stagnant and the cost of worker benefits declining while company cash flow increases, adding employees will not hurt profitability and will enhance prospects for growth. Those who get paid by fixed commission on transaction volume are the winners. They see their income rise as the monetary value of the transaction rises. This ranges from sales agents and gas-station operators to real-estate brokers, investment bankers, mortgage brokers, credit-card issuers, etc. This translates into higher aggregate revenue for the economy and explains why corporate profit is up even when consumer discretionary spending slows. It also explains why employment can be up while the unemployment rate remains constant, because the new work goes mostly to those already employed or those newly entering the job market, but not to the chronically unemployed, who remain unemployed. A steady unemployment rate in an expanding labor pool means that unemployment is growing at the same rate as new employment. An unemployment rate of 5.2% - the US rate in April - is within the structural range (4-6%) of what neo-classical economists call a non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), thus presenting no inflation threat.

Fact 3: As cash flow increases for the same amount of material activities, the GDP rises while the economy stagnates. Companies are buying and selling the same amount or maybe even less, but at a higher price and profit margin and with slightly more employees at lower pay per unit of revenue. US prices for existing homes have been rising more than 30% annually for almost a decade, adding significantly to GDP growth. As the oil price rose within a decade from about $10 a barrel to $50, a fivefold increase, those who owned oil reserves saw their asset value increase also fivefold. Those who did not own oil reserves protected themselves with hedges in the rapidly expanding structured finance world. Since GDP is a generally accepted measure of economic health, the US economy then is judged to be growing at a very acceptable rate while running in place. People eat less beef and put the meat money into the gas tanks of their cars to pollute the air, shifting cancer risks from their colons to their lungs.

Fact 4: With asset value ballooning from the impact of a sharp rise in energy prices, which in turn leads the entire commodity price chain in an upward spiral, the economy can carry more debt without increasing its debt-to-equity ratio, giving much-needed substance to the debt bubble that had been in danger of bursting before oil prices began to rise. Since the monetary value of assets tends to rise in tandem over time, the net effect is a de facto depreciation of money, misidentified as growth.

Fact 5: High oil prices threaten the economic viability of some commercial sectors, such as airlines and motor vehicles. US airlines United and Delta recently won court approval to dump their pension obligations in a bankruptcy proceeding. A need to bolster pension costs, underfunded by $5.3 billion, over the next three years would worsen Delta's cash flow problems. Delta faces $3.1 billion in pension costs between 2006 and 2008. A bill under consideration by the US Senate would stretch out employee pension payments over 25 years, and could ease the airline's liabilities.

United Airlines sought and received approval of its plan to have the government's pension insurer take over its defined-benefit plans, resulting in the largest-ever US pension default. United workers will lose about a quarter of their total pensions if their accounts are shifted to the government-run Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp (PBGC). United's effort to dump its pensions is being watched closely by the rest of the airline industry, where record high fuel costs, the lowest fares since the early 1990s and stiff deregulated competition have caused network carriers to lose billions of dollars. Delta lost over $1 billion in the first quarter of 2005. A successful move by United to get out from under its pension obligations, following a similar step taken successfully by US Airways Group Inc in February, cleared the way for similar actions elsewhere in the industry and the economy. American Airlines, the largest US carrier and a unit of AMR Corp, has said it will keep its pension plans but is concerned about No 2 United gaining a financial advantage with the elimination of its pension obligations. Pension arbitrage is producing the same destructive effect on labor as cross-border wage arbitrage.

Detroit, namely Ford and General Motors, with their most profitable models being the gas-guzzling trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) that can take more than $100 to fill their tanks, are going down the same route with their pension obligations. General Motors Acceptance Corp (GMAC), a huge $300 billion credit-finance company, is facing financial problems created by the falling dollar, rising interest rates, and falling auto sales. GMAC debt, at about $260 billion, has fallen to junk status. GM's pension fund is underfunded by $17 billion, at only 80% of its obligations. The prospect of a private pension collapse is more pressing than the accounting crisis in Social Security. As Ford and GM fall into financial stress, their extended network of parts and material suppliers is also falling into insolvency.

The result is that the PBGC will fail financially as more companies default on their pension obligations, the same away the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) did during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. On September 2, Labor Day 1974, the landmark Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) became law in the US, with the government insuring pensions for millions of workers. Since then, PBGC has paid more than $8 billion in benefits to retirees under private-sector-defined benefit pension plans in the agency's care.

PBGC already administers the retirement benefits of almost 500,000 workers and retirees who were covered by about 2,700 terminated pension plans. Nearly half of them worked in five major industries: primary metals; airlines; industrial machinery; motor vehicles and parts; and rubber and plastics. PBGC insures more than 44,000 private-sector pension plans covering some 42 million workers, about one in every three US workers. Before PBGC was created, many workers labored without assurance of receiving the pensions they earned. In those not-so-good old days, there were instances where thousands of people lost all retirement benefits when their companies failed and could not keep pension commitments. Because of PBGC, this can no longer happen. When business failures occur and companies can no longer support their defined benefit pensions, PBGC will pay worker benefits as ERISA provides. But with entire industries going down the drain, PBGC, an insurance enterprise operating on the actuary principle of occasional unit default within healthy industries, cannot shoulder the cost of industrywide defaults without a federal bailout. Fifty-dollar oil will accelerate this crisis in government pension insurance.

Fact 6: Industrial plastics, the materials most in demand in modern manufacturing, more than steel or cement, are all derived from oil. Higher prices of industrial plastics will mean lower wages for workers who assemble them into products. But even steel and cement require energy to produce and their prices will also go up along with oil prices. While low Asian wages are keeping global inflation in check through cross-border wage arbitrage, rising energy prices are the unrelenting factor behind global inflation that no interest-rate policy from any central bank can contain. Ironically, from a central bank's perspective, a commodity-price-pushed asset appreciation, which central banks do not define as inflation, is the best cure for a debt bubble that the central banks themselves created.

Fact 7: War-making is a gluttonous oil consumer. With high oil prices, America's wars will carry a higher price, which will either lead to a higher federal budget deficit, or lower social spending, or both. This translates into rising dollar interest rates, which is structurally recessionary for the globalized economy. But while war is relentlessly inflationary, war spending is an economic stimulant, at least as long as collateral damage from war occurs only on foreign soil. War profits are always good for business, and the need for soldiers reduces unemployment. Fighting for oil faces little popular opposition at home, even though for the United States the need for oil is not a credible justification for war. The fact of the matter is that the US already controls most of the world's oil without war, by virtue of oil being denominated in dollars that the US can print at will with little penalty.

Fact 8: There is a supply/demand myth that if oil prices rise, they will attract more exploration for new oil, which will bring prices back down in time. This was true in the good old days when oil in the ground stayed a dormant financial asset. But now, as explained by Facts 3 and 4 above, in a debt bubble, oil in the ground can be more valuable than oil above ground because it can serve as a monetizable asset through asset-backed securities (ABS) in the wild, wild world of structured finance (derivatives). So while there is incentive to find more oil to enlarge the asset base, there is little incentive to pump it out of the ground merely to keep prices low.

Gasoline prices also will not come down, not because there is a shortage of crude oil, but because there is a shortage of refinery capacity. The refinery deficiency is created by the appearance of gas-guzzlers that Detroit pushed on the consuming public when gasoline was cheaper than bottled water, at less than a $1 a US gallon (26.5 cents a liter). Refineries are among the most capital-intensive investments, with nightmarish regulatory hurdles. Refineries need to be located where the demand for gasoline is, but families that own three cars do not want to live near a refinery. Thus there is no incentive to expand refinery capacity to bring gasoline prices down because the return on new investment will need high gasoline prices to pay for it. After all, the market is not a charity organization for the promotion of human welfare. It is a place where investors try to get the highest price for products to repay their investment with highest profit. It is not the nature of the market to reduce the price of output from investment so that consumers can drive gas-guzzling SUVs that burn most of their fuel sitting in traffic jams on freeways.

Fact 9: According to the US Geological Survey, the Middle East has only half to one-third of known world oil reserves. There is a large supply of oil elsewhere in the world that would be available at higher but still economically viable prices. The idea that only the Middle East has the key to the world's energy future is flawed and is geopolitically hazardous.

The United States has large proven oil reserves that get larger with rising oil prices. Proven reserves of oil are generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and geological conditions. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US had 21.8 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 1, 2001, twelfth-highest in the world. These reserves are concentrated overwhelmingly (more than 80%) in four states - Texas (25%, including the state's reserves in the Gulf of Mexico), Alaska (24%), California (21%), and Louisiana (14%, including the state's reserves in the Gulf of Mexico).

US proven oil reserves had declined by about 20% since 1990, with the largest single-year decline (1.6 billion barrels) occurring in 1991. But this was due mostly to the falling price of oil, which shrank proven reserves by definition. At $50 a barrel, the reserve numbers can expand greatly. The reason the US imports oil is that importing is cheaper and cleaner than extracting domestic oil. At a certain price level, the US may find it more economic to develop domestic oil instead of importing. The idea of achieving oil independence as a strategy for cheap oil is unworthy of serious discussion.

And then there are "unconventional" petroleum reserves that include heavy oils, which can be pumped and refined just like conventional petroleum except that they are thicker and have more sulfur and heavy-metal contamination, necessitating more extensive and costly refining. Venezuela's Orinoco heavy-oil belt is the best-known example of this kind of unconventional reserves, currently estimated to be 1.2 trillion barrels. Tar sands can be recovered via surface mining or in-situ collection techniques. This is more expensive than lifting conventional petroleum but not prohibitively so. Canada's Athabasca Tar Sands are the best-known example of this kind of unconventional reserves, currently estimated to be 1.8 trillion barrels. Oil shale requires extensive processing and consumes large amounts of water. Still, unconventional reserves far exceed the current supply of conventional oil.

The economics of petroleum are as important as geology in coming up with reserve estimates since a proven reserve is one that can be developed economically. If the Mideast and the Persian Gulf implode geopolitically and oil from this region stops flowing, the US will be the main beneficiary of $50 oil, or even $100 oil, as would Britain with its North Sea oil and countries such as Norway and Indonesia. But the big winner will be Russia. For China, it would be a wash, because China imports energy not for domestic consumption, but to fuel its growing export machine, and can pass on the added cost to foreign buyers. In fact, the likelihood of the US bartering below-market Texas crude for low-cost Chinese manufactured goods is very real possibility in the future. Similar bilateral arrangements between China-Russia, China-Venezuela and China-Indonesia are also good prospects.

Fact 10: Fifty-dollar oil will buy the US debt bubble a little more time, albeit bubbles never last forever. But in a democracy, the White House is under pressure from a misinformed public to bring the oil price back down to $25, not realizing that the price for cheap oil can be the bursting of the debt bubble. Despite all the grandstand warnings about the need to reduce the US trade deficit, a case can be made that the United States cannot drastically reduce its trade deficit without paying the price of a sharp recession that could trigger a global depression.

The economics of oil
Since the discovery of petroleum, its economics has never been about cutting a square deal for the consumer, corporate or individual, let alone the little guys or the working poor. It has to do with squeezing the most financial value out of this black gold.

John D Rockefeller consolidated the US oil industry into a monopoly by eliminating chaotic competition to keep the price high, not to push prices down. Neo-classical economics views higher prices of consumables as inflation, but asset appreciation is viewed as growth, not inflation. Since oil is both an asset and a consumable commodity, neo-classical economics presents a dilemma for oil economics. The size of oil reserves is exponentially greater than the annual flow of oil to the market. What is even more fundamental is that as the flow of oil to the market is reduced, the price of oil goes up, enlarging proven reserves by definition. Thus while a rise in the market price of oil adds to inflation, the corresponding rise of the asset value and size of oil reserves create a wealth effect that more than neutralizes the inflationary impact of market oil prices. The world should not care about an added percentage point in inflation if the world's assets would appreciate 17% as a result, except that when oil is not owned equally among the world's population, a conflict emerges between consumers and producers.

In fact, on an aggregate basis, cheap oil can have a deflationary impact on the economy by reducing the wealth effect. For the US economy, since the United States is a major possessor of oil assets, both on- and offshore, high oil prices are in the national interest. What we have is not an inflation problem in rising oil prices, but a pricing problem that distributes unevenly the benefits and pains of price adjustment among oil owners and oil consumers, both domestically and internationally.

On March 12, 1999, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank president William Poole said in a speech that the growth of the US money supply, which was then at more than 8% when inflation was below 2% annually, was "a source of concern" because it outpaced the rate of inflation. The M2 money supply had been growing at an 8.6% annual rate for the previous 52 weeks to keep the economy from stalling before the 2000 election. The US Federal Reserve was also watching the rate of inflation, held down mostly by low oil prices.

The rises and falls of OPEC
Failure by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production at its meeting in November 1998 prompted prices to collapse to a 12-year low of $10.35 a barrel in New York the following month. A combination of excess production, rising inventories and poor demand for winter heating fuels pushed prices down. In March 1999, oil prices climbed 17%, going higher as oil-producing countries, unified by low prices, succeed in cutting output. Oil prices began making a sharp recovery in the late winter of 1999, rising from the low teens at the beginning of the year to more than $22 a barrel by the early autumn, and crossed $30 a barrel in mid-February 2000. A major cause was production cuts settled upon in March 1999 by OPEC and other major oil-exporting nations. Poole warned that "we cannot continue to rely on the decline of oil prices at the pace of the last couple of years". He said investors who had pushed bond yields to their highest level in six months were correct in assuming the Fed's next move would be to increase interest rates. The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC), when it met on February 2, 1999, had left the Fed Funds rate (FFR) target at 4.75%. Poole voted in 1998 for the FOMC to cut the FFR target three times between September and November to 4.75% when oil was at $12.

Today, with oil at around $48, the FFR target is 3% effective since May 3. Annualized growth rate for M2 in April 2005 (relative to April 2004) was 4.139%, a fall by more than half of the 1999 growth rate of 8.6%. If the Fed is really concerned with fighting inflation, $48 oil and a 3% FFR target simply do not mix, even with a lowered money-supply growth rate. There is strong evidence that instead of worrying about inflation, the Fed is really more worried about the debt bubble, which stealth inflation through asset appreciation can help to deflate with less or no pain.

In July 1993, when the US economy had been growing for more than two years from M2 growth of over 6%, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan remarked in congressional testimony that "if the historical relationships between M2 and nominal income had remained intact, the behavior of M2 in recent years would have been consistent with an economy in severe contraction". With the M2 growth rate down to 1.44% in July 1993, Greenspan said, "The historical relationships between money and income, and between money and the price level, have largely broken down, depriving the aggregates of much of their usefulness as guides to policy. At least for the time being, M2 has been downgraded as a reliable indicator of financial conditions in the economy, and no single variable has yet been identified to take its place."

M2, adjusted for changes in the price level, remains a component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which some market analysts use to forecast economic recessions and recoveries. A positive correlation between money-supply growth and economic growth exists only on inflation-adjusted M2 growth, and only if the new money goes into new investment rather than as debt to support speculation on rising asset prices. Sustainable economic expansions are based on real production, not on speculative debt.
In 2004, longer-term interest rates actually declined from their June high of 4.82% to 4.20% at year-end even as short-term rates rose and the money supply grew at a 5.67% annual rate. This reflected a credit market unconcerned with long-term inflation despite a sinking US dollar and oil prices rising above $50 a barrel. The reason is that $50 oil raised asset value at a faster pace than price inflation of commodities.

In March 2000, OPEC punctured the Greenspan easy-money bubble by reversing the fall of oil prices. The FOMC was forced to respond to the change in the rate of inflation, no longer being held down by declines in oil prices. Because the easy money stimulated only speculation that did not produce any real growth, the easy-money bubble of 2000 evolved into the current debt-driven asset bubble. The smart money realized in 2000 that the market's march toward $50 oil was on. And in 2005, $50 oil appears to be giving Greenspan's debt-driven asset bubble a second life, most of which ended in the real-estate sector. If oil should fall back to $25 a barrel, the debt-driven asset bubble will pop with a bang.

Oil is not included in the World Trade Organization (WTO) regime because it is not a commodity that can be produced at will by any nation, regardless of efficiency. Oil producers are members of a natural monopoly devoid of open competition. Yet OPEC is a cartel. As such, it will eventually conflict with the competition policy thrust of the WTO. Under WTO rules, oil-producing nations cannot be charged with price-fixing if they intervene to affect market prices. OPEC, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the WTO are among the most visible international economic organizations. The WTO regime imposes draconian free-market rules on trade except for oil and currencies, while OPEC blatantly practices intergovernmental manipulation of oil prices and the IMF acts as the world's policeman in defense of dollar hegemony. Neo-liberal economists do not see OPEC and the IMF as trade-restricting monopolies, arguing that their separate domains of oil and currencies are not part of the concern of the WTO regime. Concerted government intervention against market forces in the price of oil and currencies are tolerated in the name of needing to correct market failures. The fact of the matter is that the term "market" is a misnomer for oil and currency transactions. These commodities change hands not in a market, but in an allotment schema arranged from a central control point in a neo-feudal regime.

A major key to understanding the operation of OPEC is the internal battle for market share within OPEC by its members, causing aggregate OPEC production to be higher than what serves even the cartel's overall interest. Discontinuities in the production of Iraq and Iran were caused by the Iraq-Iran conflicts between 1980 and 1988. A second discontinuity in 1990 was caused by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War. A third discontinuity occurred when the US invaded Iraq in 2003. A fourth discontinuity is pending over Iran's march toward nuclear-power status. As a major oil producer, Iran needs nuclear power for civilian use as much as coal-producing Newcastle needs oil. Obviously, other agendas are at work. OPEC was formed in 1960 with five founding members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. By the end of 1971, six other nations had joined the group: Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Nigeria. Of these, only Venezuela is non-Islamic. OPEC emerged as an effective cartel only after the Arab oil embargo that started on October 19, 1973, and ended on March 18, 1974. During that period, the price for benchmark Saudi Light increased from $2.59 in September 1973 to $11.65 six months later in March 1974. Since then, OPEC has been setting bottom benchmark prices for its various kinds of crude oil in the world market.

The oil price dipped below $10 after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. By 1984, the effects of seven years of high prices had taken its toll on demand in the form of more energy-efficient homes and industrial processes, and in substantial increases in automobile fuel efficiency, not to mention new competitive use of coal. At the same time, crude-oil production was increasing throughout the world, stimulated by higher prices. During this period, OPEC total production stayed relatively constant, around 30 million barrels per day. However, OPEC's market share was decreased from more than 50% in 1974 to 47% in 1979. The loss of market share was caused by non-OPEC production increases in the rest of the world. Higher crude prices caused by OPEC production sacrifices had made exploration more profitable for everyone, not just OPEC, and many non-OPEC producers around the world rushed to take advantage of it.

The rapid oil-price increases since 1980 served to accelerate consumer moves toward energy efficiency. In the US, conservation was also helped by tax incentives and new regulations. Sharp increases in non-OPEC production fueled by high oil prices were compounded by the deregulation of domestic crude-oil prices in the US.

Global demand for oil had peaked by 1979 and it became clear that the only way for OPEC to maintain prices was to reduce production further. OPEC reduced its total production by a third during the first half of the 1980s. As a result, the cartel's share in world oil production dropped below 30%. Non-OPEC producers got a big lift from higher prices, larger market shares, and an expanded definition of proven reserves.

Looking at OPEC members' production share within the organization and not their share of total world production, one could clearly see Saudi Arabia acting as swing producer for OPEC during the first half of the 1980s in the cartel's attempt to shore up declining prices. By 1986, the Saudis got tired of playing this role as other OPEC member countries were cheating on their quotas at Saudi expense. In response, Saudi Arabia rapidly increased production, causing a major price collapse. It created an oil boom in oil-consuming economies and a recession in oil-producing economies. But since the oil-producing economies were the consumers of the manufactured products made by the oil-consuming economies, recession in oil-producing economies caused a worldwide recession, as reflected in the 1987 crash in the US stock markets.

It took almost three years for oil prices to recover. The lower prices did have a long-term beneficial effect for OPEC. They encouraged increased consumption and halted production increases in much of the rest of the world, causing among other things the oil depression in Texas. By the end of the decade of the 1980s, prices finally stabilized. Throughout the late '80s, however, when oil prices plummeted, bankrupt oil drillers dragged Texas banks under, causing the entire oil-dominated Texas economy to go into convulsion. Today, in a globalized debt market, if a major borrower goes bust in Texas, it would only affect dispersed small units of commercial asset-backed security bonds of unbundled risks held in countless money managers' portfolios all over the world. The effect would be so diffused that no one would even notice. Securitization of debt now stands at more than $4 trillion globally, up from $375 billion in 1985.

OPEC, or any other cartel, faces a problem of optimization in its attempts to control prices. The problem is to determine the level of production that meets its collective goals of highest prices with the biggest volume over the longest sustainable period. For OPEC, this means maintaining production levels that ensure the highest oil prices possible without encouraging competitive production outside OPEC or significant conservation measures on the part of consumers everywhere.

The Saddam Hussein factor
In January 1990, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had 24% and 9% of OPEC's total production. Iraq and Iran had 13% and 12% respectively. Iraq was involved at this time in a territorial dispute with Kuwait. Negotiations between the two Arab countries failed to produce any solution. In a meeting on July 25, 1990, between Iraqi president Saddam Hussein and US ambassador April Glaspie, Saddam was assured that the US would not become involved in the Arab-to-Arab political dispute. It was a major factor in Iraq's decision to reincorporate Kuwait by force. A week later, on August 2, 1990, Iraq invaded and occupied Kuwait, giving it control of 22% of OPEC production.

The United States, belatedly realizing that political consolidation of Arab oil was against its long-standing policy of divide and rule, reversed itself on the basis of defending the principle of state sovereignty, and became the major force in restoring Kuwait's questionable sovereignty and de facto oil ownership early in 1991. At this point, the US-engineered embargo prevented the export of Iraqi oil, and Kuwait's oilfields had been destroyed by war. Iraq and Kuwait had virtually no production and the slack was taken up by other OPEC members, primarily Saudi Arabia. In February 1991, Saudi Arabia's production accounted for more than 35% of OPEC output. The Saudis had increased production sufficiently to compensate for the loss of Kuwait's production as well as some of that of Iraq. The Saudis were forced by US pressure to pay for the cost of the Gulf War and by Arab pressure to provide financial aid to defeated Iraq under the table, all from the windfall revenue. Not much was changed in the oil economics of the region except in the political accounting.

By December 1998, Saudi Arabia's global market share was 29.7%, Kuwait's 7.4%, Iran's 13.0%, Iraq's 8.4% and Venezuela's 11.0%. Saudi Arabia had the greatest increase in market share compared with the pre-Gulf War period, although it had fallen back from its 35% postwar peak, as Kuwait and Iraq recovered. Venezuela was third, after Iran. In addition, the Saudis have always had the largest volume of production. At most times, the Saudis produce at least twice as much as the second-largest OPEC producer. Those who follow OPEC will recall that, especially in the 1980s, many of the negotiations over production quotas included discussions of what was equitable for the member countries. Among the factors considered were population, per capita income and the economic dependence upon crude-oil exports and, last but not least, economic threats to political stability.

By the end of the 1980s, most of the issues about the sharing of the total OPEC production pie had been resolved. But all of the explicit and implicit agreements in place at that time were disrupted by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War. After the war, OPEC tried to move back toward the pre-Gulf War agreements on splitting up the production pie and return to the old method of doing business. Some consideration was given to the economic needs of OPEC members as well as non-OPEC members with emerging economies, such as Mexico.

The Hugo Chavez factor
Venezuela was a case in point. The country was on its economic knees or worse, victimized by neo-liberal policies of accepting foreign debt secured by oil exports and driven to the ground by IMF conditionality rescues. Despite the fact that Venezuela had increased its share of OPEC production significantly over the previous decade, OPEC declined to demand that Venezuela give up its gains. OPEC agreed on another cutback in production to boost prices in 1997 without requiring Venezuela to share proportionately in that cut. Yet Venezuela continued to view oil prices as too low to meet its needs in servicing foreign debt. OPEC was bending backward in vain to avoid pushing Venezuela into a left-leaning revolution. There was a lot of pressure from the US on Saudi Arabia to shoulder a disproportionate share of the cuts after 1997.

Under US pressure, OPEC tolerance changed after Hugo Chavez was elected president of Venezuela in 1998 with 56% of the vote, and re-elected in 2000 under the new constitution with 59% of the vote. In November 2000, the National Assembly granted Chavez the right to rule by decree for one year, and in November 2001, he made a set of 49 decrees, including fundamental reforms in oil and agrarian policy. In December 2001, the nation's largest business organizations and the right-dominated Petroleum Workers Union organized a general strike. In 2002, the US-backed opposition forces staged an unsuccessful coup that was foiled by a massive popular uprising, with support from the rank-and-file members of the military. Chavez was restored to the presidency after 48 hours. A recall referendum, certified by the Organization of American States and the Carter Center, failed by giving Chavez a 58% majority.

Chavez' popularity in Venezuela and throughout Latin America, where two-thirds of the South American continent have elected leftist presidencies, has grown. As oil prices soared in the wake of the second Iraq war and from booming Chinese demand, oil-rich Venezuela gained financial power to refuse predatory loans and aid from the United States, in its struggle to distance itself from US domination. Washington's influence in Caracas evaporated, as Chavez accused the administration of US President George W Bush of having staged the failed 2002 coup. A 35-year military agreement between the US and Venezuela was unilaterally annulled by Venezuela on April 24 this year.

Supply and demand
Current oil-price levels are a reflection of a fleeting inventory problem rather than a long-term pricing issue. There is of course no, and has never has been, a problem with the natural supply of oil. The world will still be awash with oil even after petroleum is rendered obsolete by new energy technology. When US president Bill Clinton threatened to release US strategic reserves in the 1990s, OPEC signaled its decision to increase production immediately more than once, not because of market fundamentals, but as political gestures. Many economists think that $35 oil in the long run is good for the global economy. At any rate, oil is no longer a critical factor for the US economy, which is increasingly less dependent on oil for growth. GE announced in February 2000 a new turbine that would be 60% more efficient than current models in generating electricity for the same energy input. The news did not help GE stock prices.

There was solid evidence that the 1970s recycling of petrodollars, which mostly ended up in the dollar assets in the United States anyway, contributed to US inflation as much as the higher retail price of gasoline. It in essence siphoned off additional global funds to purchase higher-priced oil for investment in US real estate, which was the only sector the then unsophisticated Arab money managers thought they knew enough about to handle. By the 1990s, they were more sophisticated. Some had expected that a new injection of petrodollars would sustain the collapsing "new economy" equity market of the '90s. It did not work because, even at $35, oil was still behind its pre-1973 price relative to the peak Nasdaq in June 1999, the equivalent of which would bring $120 oil.

The drop in oil prices after 1997 was mostly a cyclical effect of the drastic reduction of demand from the Asian financial crisis, which impacted the whole world. There was zero pressure even in the US to raise oil prices at that time, because of the effect they had on keeping easy-money inflation low. Even oil companies were not really upset by this temporary condition because, until oil prices dropped below $7 per barrel, it was not a big deal since that was the offshore production cost in the North Sea. The wellhead cost on land was less than $4 per barrel, plus market-induced leasehold costs. North Sea oil was higher because of fixed offshore drilling investments. In 1998, oil could stay at anywhere above $7 for quite a few years without doing any lasting harm to the US or Europe. It was widely expected to go back up to $35 by the end of 2000, and a lot of people would get rich in the process. OPEC was touting the line of argument that high prices would stimulate new exploration to get the non-OPEC consumers to accept costlier oil. In the long run, less new exploration would be good for OPEC. Before 1973, the whole world was happy with $3 oil. As for the US, cheap oil kept inflation (as measured by the Fed) low, the dollar high and dollar interest rates low. These benefits outweighed the oil-sector problems created by a collapse in oil prices. In oil, no one has told the truth for more than 80 years, or since its discovery.

There were all kinds of reasons that US president George H W Bush pushed Iraq out of Kuwait, Clinton bombed Iraq, and Bush Jr invaded and occupied it, but oil prices were very low on the list and terrorism was not even on the list. If Iraqi oil re-enters the world market, other OPEC members will reduce the production quota, so the real impact on prices will be minimum. Most market analysts have estimated the price movement at less that $1 under such development. So at the post-1997 price of $10-plus per barrel, only the profit margin was reduced and some idiotic oil brokers in Chicago holding high futures contracts, and some high-rolling investors in oil rigs in Texas, got wiped out, including a future occupant of the White House. But the good news for the oil industry was that it gave a big boost to oil-company mergers to consolidate the sector and reserves and downsize employment, which in better times the US government would have never approved for antitrust reasons.

As Asia recovered from the 1997 financial crisis, lifted mostly by China, the oil industry found itself in the position to command $50 oil in the next cycle, and enjoyed the inflated value of its global reserves, which it had bought up at low cost a decade ago. The low prices of the past decade had also put OPEC countries, predominantly Islamic, in their places, including the bonus of Indonesia and Russia, which had to live exclusively on oil exports (not really living, because all of the reduced revenue went to service foreign debts assumed in better times). With globalization, the US, the center, has been enjoying the rotting of the outer limbs of the global economy since the end of the Cold War, but it has yet to realize gangrene kills the whole organism.

Iraq was not an oil problem as far as Washington was concerned. In fact, low oil prices worked against Saddam in the black market. Saddam has been portrayed by the US as one of its worst enemies. But he has not always worn and will not always wear that honor, given the unpredictability of Iran. The terrorist attacks on the US on September 11, 2001, put a new dimension on the problem of Iraq. The reason the US failed to kill Saddam was not incompetence or Christian mercy, but the fact that Saddam might not have been the worst alternative. He was just a bad boy who misbehaved. What Washington wanted was for Saddam to be its bad boy. Saddam is far from totally finished politically. The world has seen stranger things than the political rehabilitation of Saddam Hussein. He has a major advantage over Bush Jr, as he did over Clinton and Bush Sr. Saddam has a focused purpose whereas Clinton, the Bushes, and US policy are all driven by complex incentives that are at times contradictory. The political economy of oil is no intellectual tea party. There is no price economics in oil. It's all politics of the dirtiest kind.

The problem with cheap oil
It is often overlooked that the United States is a major oil producer. In fact, before the discovery of oil in the Middle East in the 1930s, the US was the world's biggest exporter of oil. "Oil for the lamps of China" was a slogan of the Standard Oil monopoly. It is not clear that cheap oil is in the United States' national interest. Cheap oil distorts the US economy in unconstructive ways. In recent years of cheap oil, advances in conservation have all been abandoned. Until this year, US consumers were buying eight-cylinder SUVs that deliver only eight miles per gallon (29 liters per 100 kilometers), as well as air-conditioned convertibles. Even with $2 (53 cents per liter) gasoline, commuters face only a $500 annual increase in their gas bills. Vehicle prices have risen faster than gasoline prices in recent decades. Of course, the rest of the world outside the US has been operating on $4 (more than $1 per liter) gasoline for a long time.

It is an economic axiom that excessively low commodity pricing breeds abuse of that commodity. This truth can be observed in water, air, petrochemicals and energy. It holds true even for labor and capital. Higher labor cost drives productivity growth. Greenspan's favorite homely is: "Bad loans are made in good times."

OPEC had been permitted to assume an effective cartel role only at the pleasure of the United States. The existence of OPEC serves several convenient US geopolitical purposes. It deflects political opposition to the international oil regime from the US toward a mostly Arab/Islamic organization, yet the health of OPEC is inseparably tied to the health of the energy corporations of the West that control all the downstream operations. OPEC is an example of how economic nationalism can be co-opted into Western-dominated neo-imperialist globalization.

Excessively high oil prices are of course as detrimental to an economy as excessively low oil prices. The last downturn in crude-oil prices had immediate impacts on the exploration segment of the industry. Coincident with that was a decline in sales and manufacture of oil and gas equipment. Another segment of the industry that felt the pressure of the price decline was oil and gas services.

According to James Williams of WTRG Economics, oil prices behave much as any other commodity, with wide price swings in times of shortage or oversupply. US domestic oil prices were heavily regulated through production or price control throughout much of the 20th century. In the post-World War II era, oil prices averaged $19.27 per barrel in 1996 dollars. Through the same period, the median price for crude oil was $15.27 in 1996 prices. That meant that only half of the time from 1947 to 1997 did oil prices exceed $15.26 per barrel. Prices only exceeded $22 per barrel in response to war or conflict in the Middle East. In 1972, $3.50 oil translated to $11.50 in 1996 dollars and $16.29 in 2005 dollars.

The long-term view is much the same. Since 1869, US crude-oil prices adjusted for inflation have averaged $18.63 per barrel in 1996 dollars. Fifty percent of the time, prices were below $14.91. Using long-term history as a guide, those in the upstream segment of the crude-oil industry structured their business to be able to operate profitably below $15 per barrel half the time.

Pre-embargo crude-oil prices ranged between $2.50 and $3 from 1948 through the end of the 1960s. The price of oil rose from $2.50 in 1948 to about $3 in 1957. When viewed in 1996 dollars, an entirely different story emerges. In 1996 dollars, crude-oil prices fluctuated between $14 and $16 during the same period. The apparent price increases were just keeping up with inflation. From 1958 to 1970, prices were stable at about $3 per barrel, but in real terms the price of crude oil declined from above $15 to below $12 per barrel in 1996 dollars. The decline in the price of crude when adjusted for inflation was exacerbated in 1971 and 1972 by the weakness of the US dollar.

Member nations had experienced a decline in the real value of their oil since the foundation of OPEC. Throughout the post-World War II period, exporting countries found increasing demand for their crude oil was rewarded by a 40% decline in the purchasing power in the price of a barrel of crude until March 1971, when the balance of power shifted. That month, the Texas Railroad Commission set pro ration at 100% for the first time. This meant that Texas producers were no longer limited in the amount of oil that they could produce. More important, it meant that the power to control crude-oil prices shifted from the US cartel (Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana) to OPEC.

In 1972, the price of crude oil was about $3 and by the end of 1974 had quadrupled to $12. The Yom Kippur War started on October 5, 1973. The US and many other Western countries gave strong support to Israel. To punish such support, Arab oil-exporting nations imposed an embargo on the nations supporting Israel. Arab nations curtailed production by 5 million barrels per day. About 1mbpd was made up by increased production of non-Arab/Islamic producer countries. The net loss of 4mbpd extended through March 1974 and represented 7% of Western world production. Any doubt that the ability to control crude-oil prices had passed from the US to OPEC was removed during the 1973 Arab oil embargo. The extreme sensitivity of prices to supply shortages became all too apparent, though obviously unsustainable over the long term. Prices increased 400% in six short months. The abrupt jump, not the high price itself, caused destabilizing damage to the US and other Western economies.

From 1974 to 1978, crude-oil prices increased at a moderate pace from $12 per barrel to $14, mostly due to adjustments in demand moderated by increases in alternative sources of supply. When adjusted for inflation, prices were constant over this period of time. War between Iran and Iraq led to another round of increases in 1980. The Iranian revolution resulted in the loss of 2-2.5mbpd between November 1978 and June 1979. Starting in 1980, Iraq's crude-oil production fell 2.7mbpd and Iran's by 600,000 barrels per day during the Iran-Iraq War. The combination of these two events resulted in crude-oil prices more than doubling from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981.

The rapid increase in crude prices in this period would have been much less were it not for US energy policy. The US imposed price controls on domestically produced oil in an attempt to lessen the impact of the 1973-74 price increase. The obvious result of the price controls was that US consumers of crude oil paid 48% more for imports than domestic production, while US producers received less. In the short term, the recession induced by the 1973-74 price rise was made less painful by oil price control. However, in the absence of price controls, US exploration and production would certainly have been significantly greater, counterbalancing the economic decline. The higher prices faced by consumers would have resulted in still lower rates of consumption: automobiles would have had higher fuel efficiency sooner, homes and commercial buildings would have been better insulated and improvements in industrial energy efficiency would have been greater than they were during this period, thus cushioning the recession. As a consequence, the US would have been less dependent on imports in 1979-80 and the price increase in response to Iranian and Iraqi supply interruptions would have been significantly less.

OPEC has seldom been effective as a cartel. During the 1979-80 period of rapidly increasing prices, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ahmed Yamani, repeatedly warned other members of OPEC that high prices would lead to a reduction in demand. For example, Armand Hammer's Occidental Oil joint venture with the Chinese Ministry of Coal to export coal-derivative fuel based on $50 oil was bound to head toward financial disaster. The coal project in China failed by 1986 as oil prices fell.

The rapid price increases caused several reactions among consumers: better insulation in new homes, increased insulation in many older homes, more energy efficiency in industrial processes, and automobiles with lower fuel consumption, all with various forms of government subsidies or tax relief. These factors along with a global recession caused a reduction in demand that led to further falling crude prices. Unfortunately for OPEC, while the global recession was temporary, nobody rushed to remove insulation from their homes or to replace energy-efficient plants and equipment when the economy recovered. Much of the consumer reaction to the oil-price increase of the end of the decade was permanent and would not respond to lower prices with increased demand for oil.

From 1982 to 1985, OPEC attempted to set production quotas low enough to stabilize prices. These attempts met with repeated failure as various members of OPEC continued to produce beyond their quotas. During most of this period, Saudi Arabia acted as the swing producer cutting its production to stem the free-falling prices, as it intends to do now to halt the rise in price. In August 1985, the Saudis, tired of this role, linked their oil prices to the spot market for crude and by early 1986, increased production from 2mbpd to 5mbpd. Crude-oil prices plummeted below $10 per barrel by mid-year. China had a new minister of coal that same year.

A December 1986 OPEC price accord set to target $18 per barrel was already breaking down by the following month. Prices remained weak. The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainty associated with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War. Within hours of the first air strike against Iraq in January 1991, the White House announced that president Bush Sr was authorizing a drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) activated the plan on January 17. After the oil crisis of 1973-74, the IEA was created as a cooperative grouping of most of the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, committed to responding swiftly and effectively in future oil emergencies and to reducing their dependence on oil.

Crude prices plummeted by nearly $10 a barrel in the next-day trading, falling below $20 for the first time since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The price drop was attributed to optimistic reports about the allied forces' crippling of Iraqi air power and the diminished likelihood, despite the outbreak of war, of further jeopardy to world oil supply; the IEA plan and the SPR drawdown did not appear to be needed to help settle markets, and there was some criticism of it. Nonetheless, more than 30 million barrels of SPR oil was put out to bid, and 17.3 million barrels were sold and delivered in early 1991. But after the war, crude oil prices entered a steady decline until 1994, when inflation-adjusted prices attained their lowest level since 1973. The price cycle then turned up. With a strong economy in the US and a booming economy in Asia, increased demand led a steady price recovery well into 1997. This came to a rapid end as the impact of the 1997 financial crisis in Asia was underestimated by OPEC, being advised by the IMF. That December, OPEC increased its quotas by 10% to 27.5mbpd, but the rapid growth in Asian economies had come to a halt and reversed direction by half.

The rotary rig count is the average number of drilling rigs actively exploring for oil and gas. Drilling an oil or gas well is a high-risk, capital-intensive investment bet in the expectation of returns from the production of crude oil or natural gas in an uncertain market. Rig count is one of the primary measures of the health of the exploration segment of the oil and gas industry. In a very real sense, it is a measure of the oil and gas industry's confidence in its own future. At the end of the Arab oil embargo in 1974, rig count was below 1500. It rose steadily with regulated rise of crude-oil prices to more than 2000 in 1979. From 1978 to the beginning of 1981 domestic US crude-oil prices exploded from a combination of the rapid growth in world energy prices and deregulation of domestic prices. Forecasts of crude prices in excess of $100 per barrel fueled a drilling frenzy. By 1982, the number of rotary rigs running had more than doubled.

The peak in drilling occurred more than a year after oil prices had entered a steep decline that continued until the 1986 price collapse. The one-year lag between crude prices and rig count disappeared in the price collapse. For the next few years, towns in the oil patch were characterized by bankruptcies, bank failures and high unemployment. Investors as far-flung as Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore and London went under with it. Several trends were established in the wake of the collapse in crude prices. The lag of more than a year for drilling to respond to crude prices is now reduced to a matter of months. Like any other industry that goes through hard times, the oil business emerged smarter and much leaner. Industry participants, bankers and investors were far more aware of the risk of price movements. Companies long familiar with accessing geologic risk added price risk to their decision criteria. Financial hedging came into play in the construction of risk-management models.

Increased use of three-dimensional seismic data reduced drilling risk. Directional and horizontal drilling led to improved production in many reservoirs. Financial instruments were used to limit exposure to price movements. Increased use of floods to improve production in existing wells became common. Rig count is certainly a good measure of activity, but it is not a measure of success. After a well is drilled, it is classified either as an oil well, a natural gas well or a dry hole. The percentage of wells completed as oil or gas wells is frequently used as a measure of success, often referred to as the success rate.

Immediately after World War II, 35% of the wells drilled were dry wells. This percentage increased to about 43% by the end of the 1960s. It declined steadily during the 1970s to reach 30% at the end of the decade. This was followed by a plateau or modest increase through most of the 1980s. Beginning in 1990 shortly after the harsh lessons of the price collapse, non-completion rates decreased dramatically to 23%. These rates are closely watched by investors. Since the percentage completion rates are much lower for the more risky exploratory wells, a shift in emphasis away from development would be expected to result in lower overall completion rates. This, however, was not the case. An examination of completion rates for development and exploratory wells shows the same general pattern. The decline in dry holes was price-related. The higher the price, the fewer dry holes.

Some would argue that the periods of decline in successful drillings were a result of the fact that every year there is less oil to find. If the industry does not develop better technology and expertise every year, oil and gas completion rates should naturally decline. However, this does not explain the periods of increase. The increase of the 1970s was more related to price than technology. When a well is drilled, the fact that oil or gas is found does not mean that the well will be completed as a producing well. The determining factor is price economics (even though oil prices are fundamentally set politically). If the well can produce enough oil or gas at anticipated prices to cover the cost of completion and the ongoing production costs, it will be put into production. Otherwise, it is an economic dry hole even if crude oil or natural gas is found. The conclusion is that if real prices are increasing, we can expect a higher percentage of successful wells. Conversely if prices are declining, the opposite is true. Thus higher prices increase supply, regardless of natural conditions and technology.

The success-rate increases of the 1990s, however, could not be explained by higher prices alone. These increases were clearly also the result of improved technology. The increased use of and improvements in 3-D seismic data analysis combined with horizontal and directional drilling. Most dramatic was the improvement in the percentage of exploratory wells completed. In the 1990s completion rates have soared from 25% to 45%.

Worked-over rig count is a measure of the industry's investment in the maintenance of oil and gas wells. The Baker-Hughes worked-over rig count includes rigs involved in pulling production tubing from a well that is 1,500 feet (457 meters) or more in depth. Worked-over rig count is another measure of the health of the oil and gas industry. Most work-overs are associated with oil wells. Worked-over rigs are used to pull tubing for repair or replacement of rods, pumps and tubular goods that are subject to wear and corrosion. A low level of worked-over activity is particularly worrisome because it is indicative of deferred maintenance. When operators are in a weak cash position, work-overs are delayed as long as possible. Worked-over activity impacts manufacturers of tubing, rods and pumps. Service companies coating pipe and other tubular goods are heavily affected. This of course leads to lower supply down the road and higher prices. Higher prices reverse the process, which ends up with lower prices later. Fifty-dollar oil will keep the oil sector expanding for some time.

OPEC and the independents
A critical November 1998 OPEC meeting failed to reverse the decline in oil prices. OPEC in 1997 had an earlier failure when it approved a 10% quota increase at a time when the Asian economies were entering a prolonged slump after the financial crisis. As a result, OPEC, until the recent hike in oil prices that began around 2000, experienced the lowest prices for crude oil after adjusting for inflation since the pre-embargo days of 1972.

Market share and price are recurring themes at OPEC meetings. The problem is that you cannot have both for long. To increase market share, OPEC must increase production sufficiently to drive prices down to the point that it is not economical for non-OPEC producers to maintain current production rates. Unfortunately for OPEC, the full realization of the impact of lower prices on non-OPEC producers can be effectuated only over a period of several years. The effect of lower prices is greatest in countries and areas with the highest exploration and production costs. Onshore production in areas with high lifting cost is usually the first to show reduction in activity. Because of long-term decisions involved, offshore producers often take longer to react to lower prices.

The term "independent" in the oil business generally applies to a producer of oil or gas that does not also own downstream facilities such as refineries, gasoline or diesel distribution, or retail gas stations. A 1998 survey of 24 of the larger US oil companies indicated that on the average it cost $4.48 to "find" a barrel of oil and $4.12 to produce it. That means there will be no profit for this group below $8.60 per barrel for new oil and no positive cash flow from operations below $4.12 per barrel.

Of course industrial averages are quite different from specific reality for any one company. Average production costs are just that - averages. Many oilfields have much higher costs - in some cases, as much as four times the average. Many small independent producers were going under financially prior to the rise in oil prices. Independents had reduced their workforce by 20% and shut down 50% of their production. Any further reduction in production would cause significant damage to the reservoirs. One company reported that it reduced lifting cost to $8 per barrel, but is only receiving an average of $6.80 per barrel.

Traders watch crude prices through the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) or IPE (International Petroleum Exchange) windows, but neither the NYMEX price nor the IPE price is the price that producers receive. The NYMEX is not only the largest physical-commodity exchange in the world but one of the most innovative and dynamic. The exchange's energy and metals markets provide a wide spectrum of risk-management and trading tools, with more than 130,000 total energy options contracts traded daily.

London-based IPE is Europe'
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: May 29 2005, 09:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

May 27, 2005

Price dollars in oil, not oil in dollars
By Chris Cook

A very strong case has been made by William Engdahl (the author of A Century of War - Anglo-American Politics and the New World Order) that the three principal goals of US foreign policy in the last 100 years have been energy security, energy security and energy security.

But it is becoming clear that the Iraq war - while aimed at reducing US reliance upon Saudi oil - may have unintended consequences in terms of changing the dynamics of the oil market generally and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in particular. When it is considered that the US, with 5% of the global population consumes 25% of global energy supplies, we see the sheer impossibility for China or India to begin to approach US levels of consumption within the existing global political and financial market settlement that has been maintained since Bretton Woods in 1944. But what is the alternative?

The pricing of oil
There has been a growing realization on the part of major oil producers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia that oil is not priced in dollars but rather dollars are priced in oil. The reality underpinning this epiphany is the fact that oil has "value", or "money's worth" - in exchange for commodities, goods and services - whereas the financial object we are accustomed to think of as the "dollar" is merely a "claim over value", or IOU issued by the US Federal Reserve Bank.

If we look at the current structure of the global energy market, we are conditioned to think that the "big bad wolf" is a "cartel" of OPEC members. However, the fact of the matter is that while there has indeed been a cartel extracting extraordinary profits from energy markets in recent years, this has consisted of intermediary investment banks and energy traders, who control the global market platform on which oil is traded and benchmark prices are set. In other words, the derivative tail has been wagging the oil market dog.

This is set to get worse, to the extent that a major trading disaster is only a matter of time - possibly as soon as this winter, if Goldman Sachs' prognosis of a "super-spikes" to $100/barrel oil is realized. The reason for this is the fact that investment banks and oil companies have themselves now lost control of the price-setting process to a wall of hedge fund money under the control of star traders attracted by rewards beyond the dreams of avarice - as opposed to the pittance they were receiving with their former employers.

Hedge funds - as the Long Term Capital Management meltdown showed us in 1998 - are almost entirely unregulated, since there is no regulatory body with access to data in relation to their transactions (particularly "off-exchange") or with the capability to take enforcement action over the offshore entities typically used by hedge funds.

Due to the lack of transparency in "off-exchange" trading, oil producers and consumers do not even know that they are losing - a phenomenon which J K Galbraith memorably described as the "bezzle". However, while oil producers and consumers have now woken up to the bezzle, the problem they have is what to do about it. It has long been clear that a Middle Eastern benchmark oil price is a key part of the solution, and the creation and domination of such a benchmark has been the Holy Grail for the International Petroleum Exchange and New York Mercantile Exchange for some 15 years.

Whatever the benchmark and market mechanism, there are two functions which are generic to all markets: money, capital, commodities, energy, whatever. First, there is a requirement for a legally binding contract - "transaction registration"; second, there is the function of transfer of title against payment. Together these are thought of as "clearing and settlement". These two functions constitute a natural monopoly and should therefore only take place in the context of an "enterprise model" (legal and financial structure) which is neutral both in terms of participation and absence of outside investors.

The requirement is therefore for an "Energy Clearing Union" comprising all market participant constituencies - whether producers, consumers or intermediaries - constituted as an "International Energy Trade Association" ("IETA") and served by a consortium of providers of services such as communications, technology, risk management and so on. Such an IETA would not only have access to trading data both on and off-exchange but would also be in a position to impose standards of probity and market behavior with the threat of sanctions such as suspension - temporary or permanent - of the right to register transactions.

Bilateral transactions between IETA members would be subject to mutual guarantee, backed by suitable deposit or margin arrangements and/or a default fund. A risk management partner - rather than a central counterparty "Clearing House" - would manage the system and the risk. The outcome is a "Clearing Union" or "Guarantee Society", as recently adopted by the Scottish Liberal Democrats as part of their policy to stimulate small and medium-size enterprises. Such a Clearing Union would be operated by a neutral consortium of service providers within a true partnership arrangement, with funding provided by the stakeholders themselves without recourse to outside investors. The Clearing Union concept is not a new idea within the oil market - at least one OPEC member has been advocating an OPEC Clearing Bank and associated investment institution for almost 20 years.

A rational energy policy
It was instructive to hear the response at an industry event last June of both a panel of senior energy traders and their audience when asked for an assessment of the likely success of emissions trading. "Slim to zero" was the consensus of both, and even more telling was the analogy from the floor: "If you want to keep a donkey healthy you don't take care of what comes out of it, you take care of what goes in."

We do not have to look beyond the structure of the limited liability company to realize what the problem is with emissions trading. It is not necessary to make any ethical or moral judgment with respect to "the Corporation", merely to observe that the managers of GasCo Inc or Oilco Plc are likely to be held to account by their shareholders if they fail to minimize costs and maximize shareholder value.

A levy on non-renewable energy would affect the costs of global intermediaries in a way that they would find more difficult to pass on and is therefore not in the interest of investors. This "externalization" of costs is the reason why the more canny oil companies and conglomerates have been assiduously promoting and lobbying for the emissions trading concept. The embarrassing fact is that if emissions trading could actually work, energy intermediaries would not support it.

An "Energy Clearing Union", on the other hand, while not necessarily in the interests of investors is certainly in the interests of the planet. In particular, it could form the cornerstone of a rational global energy policy as an alternative to fundamentally unworkable emissions trading schemes. Since all energy transactions would be registered, it would be easy to apply a suitable levy that could then form the basis of an "Energy Investment Fund" that would fund investment in:
# Existing and future non-renewable infrastructure, to ensure the most efficient possible utilization of these finite resources
# Renewable energy
# Energy-efficient and eco-friendly housing and infrastructure

IETA would increase the oil price with a levy of (say) $20/barrel above the market clearing level, and with the excess, acquire and develop the capital assets of all existing oil intermediaries while utilizing their expertise as development partners with incentives made up of a share in any gains in energy efficiency for which they are responsible.

A money based upon value
While an "Energy Clearing Union" provides the means for a rational energy policy, it still treats the symptom rather than the disease. In order to address the real problem, we need to re-examine the monetary unit itself. It is possible to conceive of a global "petro-dollar" - based upon a set amount of energy - which would be capable of fulfilling a role as a genuine alternative to the dollar as a global means of exchange.

J M Keynes put forward at Bretton Woods 60 years ago an "International Clearing Union" coupled with a new monetary unit he called the "Bancor". Unfortunately, what we got is a "central bank-centric" monetary system configured around the World Bank/IMF and the Bank of International Settlements where the monetary units we use are essentially debts created by central banks and issued into circulation by banks as loans.

We take for granted that we need banks to create credit but perhaps do not realize that this bank-created credit constitutes the bulk of our money supply. The effect of a monetary unit created as a debt is that - to take the UK as an example - more than 97% of all money in circulation has come into existence through the creation of loans (two-thirds of them in respect of mortgage loans secured against property) by "credit institutions" such as banks and building societies.

However, when credit institutions create money through a loan, they do not create the money necessary to repay the interest on that loan. So the simple and inexorable mathematics of compound interest on the loans backing our money drives the unsustainable imperative for economic growth at the heart of our malaise. We also take for granted that banks are entitled to charge interest on the credit they create.

A new website, www.zopa.com, which links would-be borrowers together with would-be lenders essentially on a peer-to-peer basis, does for banks what Napster did for the music industry - it dis-intermediates them. But the Guarantee Society or Clearing Union goes further than this: credit is granted bilaterally and interest-free, and the only costs to the system user are the administration/accounting costs and a share of any defaults. Furthermore, there is no reason why transactions in a "Clearing Union" need be settled in central bank-issued money, since users may quite simply agree that they will accept "money's worth" in (say) energy or commodities instead by reference to a value unit.

While banks, credit unions or ratings agencies may be the managers of the system and credit creation in this model, banks would no longer be able to charge us for their use of our credit. Some commentators, notably Susan George and George Monbiot, are advocates of an "International Clearing Union" as a solution. However, while an "International Clearing Union" is undoubtedly capable of being part of the solution, it is also necessary to address the nature of the monetary unit itself so that we may achieve a global monetary unit based upon "value" - such as an absolute amount of energy - rather than its antithesis - the Fed-issued Dollar.

An International Energy Clearing Union could provide a platform both for a new and rational energy policy and - in conjunction with new energy investment institutions - for a global monetary system based upon value rather than the US dollar. This would literally "reverse the polarity" of money to base it upon value, rather than upon a claim over value created by a bank out of thin air.

The existing system is approaching a crisis point, and a new alternative is emerging. A revolution is approaching - albeit a silent one - and when it is over we will wonder how it could ever have been otherwise.

A former director of the International Petroleum Exchange, Chris Cook is now a strategic market consultant, entrepreneur and commentator. Reprinted with permission from www.energybulletin.net.

(Copyright Chris Cook 2005)

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: May 26 2005, 06:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Let the blood run free......

Caspian oil pipeline opens

The United States has hailed the opening of a new $5.24 billion pipeline that will take Caspian region oil to western markets as a "historic project" that will also strengthen the independence of Azerbaijan and Georgia.

The presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan were joined by other top officials including the head of British energy giant BP, John Browne, for the formal launch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

The British oil giant BP holds a leading 30 per cent stake in the consortium running the pipeline. Other consortium members include Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR, Amerada Hess, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Inpex, Itochu, Statoil, Total, TPAO and Unocal.

The pipeline is to ship one million barrels of Caspian oil, roughly 1 per cent of global oil production, to Turkey's Mediterranean coast daily once it is fully up and running by the end of the year.

The pipeline is expected to become a major competitor to traditional export routes for Caspian oil that pass through Russia.

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said: "The United States has long supported this historic project as a centrepiece of the East-West Energy Corridor".

"The $4 billion ($A5.24 billion), 1,000 mile-long BTC pipeline will bring crude oil - initially one million barrels a day - from Azerbaijan's southern Caspian offshore fields through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan for shipment to world markets," he said.

"The BTC pipeline will reinforce the sovereignty and prosperity of Azerbaijan and Georgia. BTC will further integrate Azerbaijan and Georgia into the international free market economy and promote their development, while advancing our shared goal of developing multiple oil and gas export routes."

"The BTC pipeline will also enhance Turkey's emerging role as an energy transportation hub and help reduce oil tanker traffic congestion in the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits.

"The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is a major success for the US goal of enhancing and diversifying global energy supplies," he said.

US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman read a letter from US President George W Bush at the opening ceremony in which the American leader hailed the project as a "monumental achievement".

-AFP/Reuters


http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200505/s1377178.htm
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: May 25 2005, 10:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

destra announces $1 million capital raising to help fund acquisitions

MELBOURNE – May 25, 2005 –destra Corporation Limited (ASX:DES) has announced
today that the company has raised $1 million via an equity placement at 12 cents to help
fund a number of acquisitions it is currently finalising.
The private equity investment comes from Danny Wallis (via Snooze City Pty Ltd).

Danny founded and heads up DWS Advanced Business Solutions, a wholly Australian
owned IT service provider servicing the market since 1991. DWS clients include Telstra,
Fosters and ANZ bank.
DWS’ success has catapulted Danny to the forefront of Australia’s most successful
business entrepreneurs [BRW Rich 200 List, 19 May 2005 issue – page 24].
“I see strong synergies between what destra and DWS take to market and am confident
of destra’s solid financial position, integrity and growth potential,” said Danny Wallis.

Domenic Carosa, destra CEO, commented that the capital raising will allow the company
to complete a number of acquisitions on which it is working. “destra is on track to deliver
a profit this financial year and we expect this trend to continue into the 2006 financial
year,” concluded Carosa.
“We are delighted to have Danny increase his stake in the business. This is a clear
expression of the continued confidence and belief he has in destra today and into the
future,” added destra Chairman, Carl Olsen.
- ENDS -


About destra Corporation Limited
destra (ASX:DES) is a leading internet and e-commerce company delivering internet
business and consumer entertainment solutions through its two arms – destra Business and
destra Media. destra’s strategy is focused on high growth internet hosting and digital media
markets and the development of proprietary intellectual property.
Business communications offerings are delivered through the following divisions –
ozHosting.com Priority One, Yahoo Web Hosting (by ozHosting.com), destra Business and
TPP Internet.
destra Media divisions include destra Music, Musicpoint and MP3.com.au. Visit www.destra.com.


About DWS & Danny Wallis
DWS Advanced Business Solutions is an ISO9001 Quality Certified and Federal Government
Endorsed IT Services company, established in 1991. The company offers a broad range of
management and technical services enabling the provision of fully integrated end-to-end
business solutions. DWS has a reputation in the industry for providing quality staff, working in
partnership with clients and delivering excellent value for money. DWS currently employs 250
staff and is headed by Danny Wallis in his capacity as Managing Director.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 19 2005, 10:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

The trade that was made at 10.5c was placed at 14:22, not after 16:00.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 5 2005, 10:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

ALL SHAREHOLDERS AND CREDITORS SHOULD CONTACT "CLASS ACTION SPECIALIST" BERNARD MURPHY IN MELBOURNE 03-96052735 URGENTLY PRIOR TO FRIDAYS CREDITORS MEETING. bmurphy@mbc.aus.net

"Our preliminary view is that, at least in relation to the most recent rights issue, and possibly in relation to earlier conduct, there may be grounds for action pursuant to sections 710, 728, 674 and 1041H and /or 1041I of the Corporations Act 2001. These sections relate to misleading and deceptive conduct and the continuous disclosure obligations of the ASX."

In simple words if you bought shares recently you can be classed as a creditor in Australia as RMG is subject to Australian Law "Claim for your Losses"
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 5 2005, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: michaelk on Thursday 05/05/05 04:48am

Yes, read the annual report and you to will understand.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 4 2005, 08:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

The other thing to look at is the amount that management are paying themselves, I think the highest salary of the board is around $35,000.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 3 2005, 09:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Last time I try Color!!

Here's a cleaned version.

Not quite right suti, but lets have a closer look at TOX:

Revenue Oper. Cash Flow Cash At Bank

July '04 - $363,000 $21,000 -$300,000
Aug '04 - $305,000 -$113,000 -$413,000
Sep '04 - $335,000 $30,000 -$383,000
Oct '04 - $474,000 -$95,000 -$266,000
Nov '04 - $514,000 -$20,000 $411,000
Dec '04 - $361,000 -$607,000 $740,000
Jan '05 - $576,000 $105,000 $845,000
Feb '05 - $438,000 -$171,000 $674,000
Mar '05 - $565,000 $156,000 $830,000
Apr '05 - $840,000 $141,000 $921,000

Notes: Oct '04 $212,000 raised and overdraft expensed, Nov '04 raised, Dec '04 $1.41 mill raised and loan partly expensed.

Nice growth in revenue for so far, at the current rate they may get to around -$100,000 in Net Oper. Cash Flow for the full year. At current rates the expected Net Profit of $700,000 will be exceeded.

One thing that I have noticed that has not come about is tha sale of the Automated Tank Cleaning operation that they said would be sold of before the end of 2004, they may have it working profitably now.

Company seems well on the road to recovery, managemant has done a great job of reigning in costs and increasing margins. Now all that is needed is the go ahead for the upgrading of the facility at Port Headland wich would result in a major increase in revenue.

So I guess you need to ask yourself, why has the stock price been falling?? is it inseders selling??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 3 2005, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Actually that was another thing thats put me offside for the moment was the whole AIM listing. The way I saw it they were out to raise quite alot of money and only raised a little, found it a bit missleading.

Reagrds.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 2 2005, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Thought I'd move the disscusion over here so as not to bore those on the AVV board.

No, to answer your question, I'm not convinced yet that either the Russians will part with their money, or, that SKG can make the delivery. My concern is not so much that SKG can't make the four mouth delivery date but more what happens if they don't.... does that make sense??

It's good to see they are expanding and sticking to aquirering sinergistic companies, but like all, time will tell.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 30 2005, 04:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Lets look at SMO:

Total Resource:

Dalmacia - 2,500,000@1.3%cu = 32,500t

Cinabrio (Block 1) - 1,345,000@1.86%cu = 25,017t, 24gtAg.
Cinabrio mine life currently around 44 months, although a significant upgrade to it's resources is expected to be announced over the next week, possible total resource of all blocks is expected to be between 5 - 10 million tonnes at 1.5%cu = 75,000t of Cu at the lower end.

Expected Revenue:

Q4 04-05FY - $3,000,000
Q1 05-06FY - $4,000,000 (Increase due to output increase from 1,000tpd to 1,500tpd)

Target production is 3,000tpd, roughly $3,000,000 a month with a mine life of roughly 33 months for Dalmacia and 71 months for Cinabrio with a total resource of 5 million tonnes.

This puts a current valuation of the above ground copper resource of SMC at around USD$143,792,500 (consevatively valued at $2500 a tonne of copper concentrate, figure does not include resource upgrade), big number but cost will knock around USD$40,000,000 off.

In ground resource would be valued at around USD$50,000,000.

This given I would value the company at around A$50,000,000, lowered due to uncertainty as the ore is not out of the ground yet, or 14.86c per share, not including the Chilpe gold project.

But I'm only guessing so you should do your own research and talk to a professional.

regards.


If this makes no sense please let my know why.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 30 2005, 08:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I have to agree with Rubba81 on this, UBS always has an agenda. For example they gave LHG a valuation of $1.70 a few weeks ago when the stock was $1.14, reading the whole report they state that LHG has a valuation of $1.11 but because it's peers are trading at an x multiple of P/E so should LHG. The mums and dads would have seen that and started buying while UBS's major clients, read that as Bellpotter, were selling. What a great way of valuing stock 'That stocks trading at X, so this one should be too', they either have a hidden agenda, or they're blindingly stupid analysts and treat there smaller clients with contempt.

As for AVV, UBS stated if you bought shares in the company then you were buying shares in Staging and Connections as they assign no value to Regency or Digital Pictures. Staging and connections has no real growth path or stratedgy, Regency has no future as the Telstra has started rolling out ADSL 2+ with speeds of 25mps (current ADSL speeds are 1.5mps), why rent a DVD when I can suck the movie over the net in no time straight into my PDR?? As for digital Pictures, looking into post production of movies and commercials reveals the following, post production for movies is a bit like resource mining, when you get a big job your rolling in money for about 6-8 months, but the money drys up really fast and you have to start drilling for a new contract, which may take a while. This can be seen in the last earnings down grade as it was Digital Pictures and to a smaller degree Regency, that caused it.

So to summerise, Staging and Connections has no growth path, Regency has a limited life span of somewhere between 5-10yrs, and Digital Pictures is high risk and has uncertain earnings. So until they sell Digital Pictures and start aquiring businesses with real longterm growth, AVV I would have thought without running the numbers, would be valued sub 90c.

I'd have to look back but I'm pretty shaw UBS valued AVV at $1.70 a few months ago, that valuation included Regency and Digital Pictures, where as now they value the company at $1.70 and that valuation does not include Regency or Digital Pictures, and you say they don't have a hidden agenda.

So with all that information taken into account, including the UBS valuation discrepencies, why would you buy this stock at these levels?? Most of all, why would you buy a falling stock??

Regards.

Disclaimer: I've never owned shares in AVV, damn it should have bought at 60c and sold at $2.50. Also, I bought LHG when UBS bought out their valuation knowing full well what the response would be and sold at $1.17 for a few hundred dollars profit in a couple of days, now LHG is around $1.03. Of course I'm probably wrong about the well respected UBS, and consult a stockbroker before making any decision, if you dare, or buy a few books and do your own valuations like I do.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 21 2005, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

So, finally a production update:

Production Update The Directors of Australian Mining Investments Ltd are pleased to announce the copper sulphate production facility at Mt Norma has run continuously for the past 22 days with a total of 121,000 kg (121 tonnes) of high purity product being produced. This is a 300% increase in production from the previous quarter where production was 127 tonnes for the whole quarter. The plant has operated at a production rate of up to 10,000kg (10 tonne) per day but not on a consistent basis due to the plant not being able to sustain its cooling required for crystallization for the throughput rate. The Company is to add a second heat exchanger that will operate on our current refrigeration unit that has spare capacity. This upgrade is expected to be installed and commissioned by mid May which will allow even higher production. In the meantime the plant is operating on a permanent 24 hour 7 day a week operation producing high purity product.

Now given the data, the average production rate is 5.5 tonnes a day, so I would say they have just ramped it upto the current level of 8 tonnes a day (with the occasional 10 tonnes to help cash flow).

So at a gestimation, lets hope Revenue will be the following for the quarter:

April: 5.5x30 = 165
May: 8x31 = 248
June: 8x30 = 240

Total production = 653 tonnes
Revenue for Quarter = $653,000
Less Interest Payment = $378,000 (not taking into account current Notes Issue).

They're still a little short of cash to commence drilling hence the Notes issue, I would not have thought that unless they get an OS sales contract they would not have a profitable quarter until next year, this is not a bad thing while they wind up.

As for the comment about the umatilla technology by Wallaby, I much prefer cash flow so the can play with that in 12 months time, it's already proven so they really have no stress there.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 16 2005, 07:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Given thye have a $12mill of cash and around another $18mill in project financing, I'd be very disapointed.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 14 2005, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

2 Mill in total. You forgot to mention one thing, Note 6 to the quarterly report states:

Item 1.2© production costs include payments of $363,000 (March quarter) and
$814,966 (year to date) for ore purchase and ore loading and transportation costs. This
cost ($814,966) forms part of the carried forward value of the Company’s inventory at
31 March 2005. Inventory at 31 March 2005 consisted of approximately 40 tonnes of
bagged final product, 50,000 tonnes of copper oxide ore in the vats (equivalent to
approximately 5,600 tonnes of final product) and 25,000 tonnes of copper oxide ore
stockpiled.

At 31 March 2005, a large majority of the cumulative production payments [Item
1.2©] are represented by carried forward inventory at that date.


Regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 13 2005, 08:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

One more thing, no I don't think it was one person selling, probably wrong there thow. What I do know is someone bought over 2mill shares in three tranches, one at end of Dec, Jan and begining of Feb.

And I figure that 400,000 shares sitting at .034 is the same 400,000 that were bought at 3.1 a few days ago. Looking for a quick 10% on a good announcement.......

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 13 2005, 04:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I think AUM really don't care about the share price as much as just getting on with the job from what I can see and have heard.

I agree about the water supply, you can run a narrow flexible perspex pipe for a few kms above ground without any probs.

I think they wanted the cash just to make shaw everything was OK, and to start some exploration.

Lets hope the last half will be OK, I think this halves revenue will be around $700,000 given the price recieved, lets hope for those OS sales.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 12 2005, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

ZINC / LEAD / SILVER MASSIVE SULPHIDES DRILLED AT WART
HILL TO +270 METRES KNOWN EXTENT DOWN PLUNGE



SUMMARY

TasGold’s summer drilling program at the Wart Hill Prospect, SMRV Project, SW Tasmania, Australia, has now completed a total of 13 holes for 1,883.8m.

Managing Director Peter McNeil noted: “TasGold is very pleased to report that it’s 2005 drilling program has defined an extensive base/precious metal mineralised horizon with sporadic high-grades, that shows the prospect has excellent potential for a major deposit to be discovered. The continuity of base/precious metal mineralisation has now been
documented by drilling over a +270m distance down the plunge of the host horizon, effectively from surface”.

“High-grade massive sulphides have been intersected in 6 of the 13 holes drilled this year, normally in relatively narrow intervals. In addition, moderate and lower grade semi-massive and disseminated sulphides have been noted in a total of 10 of the 13 holes, with intersection widths up to 13.4m. The best assays (excluding WD001 (3.9m @123g/t Ag, 12.6% Zn, 7.2% Pb & 0.6g/t Au from 55m) and WD002 (2.8m @122g/t Ag, 10.5% Zn, 5.1% Pb & 0.3g/t Au from 65.7m), which was reported in a release to the ASX on 3/2/2005) include composited 1m interval results to 108 g/t silver, 4.6% zinc, 3.3% lead and 0.3g/t gold.” Results are still awaited for the last 4 of significant sulphide intervals and these will be reported in the future as they are received.

The geology of the prospect area is more structurally complex than originally envisaged and noted in previous releases, with folding and post-mineralisation faulting creating interpretation and sometimes drilling challenges. TasGold believe that these are the
dominant reasons for the relative lack of exploration success in the area by previous explorers. The company’s geologists have carefully evaluated these issues and undertaken detailed surface geological/structural mapping and re-interpretation of all available information, substantially increasing our understanding of the mineralised system at Wart Hill,
refining the mineralisation model and improving our drill hole targeting ability. This improved
geological understanding could translate to an improved drilling success rate.

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 10 2005, 08:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

A word of caution:


Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: Apr 9 2005, 02:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

If you don't use a stop loss, are u a trader or investor??
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 8 2005, 08:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: Herebus on Thursday 07/04/05 08:27pm

I don't think it's that bad stranger1, they're making around $240,000 a month (8tpd*1000), enough to cover interest payments and have around $400,000 for the plant.

Sales were diappointing granted, and a fair bit of plain bad luck on three fronts, solution, water + the ore they shipped in.

I would not blame management as these were mostly out of their hands, lets just hope there is no more problems.

If they raise around $500,000 from the issue they should move ahead at the normal pace, which is not too fast but it will be faster than the pace will be if they don't.

All in all they are moving ahead, all be it slowly, and money is coming in.

It seems management fully understands the situation and is dealing with it correctly by concentrating on production and it's own reliable copper deposits.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 3 2005, 11:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I don't it matters if the issue is undersubscribed as it was a last minute addition to the last convertible notes issue.

I just wish, like everyone, that they would release a progress report. They've always been a bit slack.

I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks how things are really going when the QReport comes out.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 15 2005, 07:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

TODAY 18.30

Review of Operations 06/04 - 01/05.

A total of 130,000 kg of copper sulphate pentahydrate was produced during the period and has subsequently been sold and delivered.

To ensure continuity of supply of copper oxide ore to the Mt Norma treatment plant leach vats and the ability to increase the vats’ leach capacity, the Company entered into an agreement, which gives it the right to purchase approximately 300,000 tonnes of high leach copper oxide ore.

The purchase of ore from external sources was opportunistic as it allowed the Company to increase the ore base at the Mt Norma mine by carrying out further exploration and development work. The cost of the purchase, transport and crushing of the external ore is comparable with the mining costs associated at the Mt Norma open cut mining operations. The 300,000 tonnes of ore was purchased to allow the loading of the 2 remaining vats with copper oxide ore whilst awaiting ore from the Mt Norma western strip back of the open cut.

The agreement for supply combined with the current tonnes of blocked out high grade ore of 280,000 tonnes @ +6% being mined at Mt Norma (total of 580,000 tonnes) allows the Company the option of installing a super vat to increase production of copper sulphate and other copper chemicals. The combined tonnage of the purchased ore and the Mt Norma ore blocked out and being mined has a contained 92,800 tonnes of copper sulphate.

During the first quarter (June Q 04), production of copper sulphate continued with the plant operating at less than 10% capacity whilst leaching the 2 vats. By the end of the half-year the Mt Norma Copper Sulphate operation had all 4 of the copper leach vats fully loaded with copper oxide ore. Vat No 4 was loaded with copper oxide ore 3.5 metres above the 5 metre vat water line to leach as a combined heap/vat operation. Vat No. 4 will give the technical staff on site the opportunity of assessing the degree of leaching as a heap leach method and will allow greater utilization of the vats with an increase in tonnage of ore in each vat.


Production will be set at 3,650 tonnes per annum of Copper Sulphate Pentahydrate.

Production ceased towards the end of the period due to the massive deluge of rain at the commencement of the wet season with over 500mm of rain falling within a 48 hour period. Due to the dilution of the sulphuric acid in the vats caused by the heavy rain, leaching of the oxide ore slowed and had to be blended with increased sulphuric acid to bring the solution back up to grade.

Surveying and plotting of the 5th leach vat has been completed with construction due to commence at the end of the current wet season. Initially the vat will commence leaching 25,000 tonnes of copper oxide ore, instead of the 50,000 tonnes initially intended. This vat was reduced as the oxide ore in the 4 vats is leaching well, stacked 3 metres above the solution level. Transportation and mining during late December was hampered by the commencement of the wet season and the re-opening of the Malbon-Selwyn section of the route is an ongoing task. However, a total of 20,000 tonnes of copper oxide ore was stockpiled and crushed during the quarter.

Mining of ore at Mt Norma is not expected to recommence until a technical study is completed at the end of the wet season, which is standard practice to assess stability. This is also a direction by the Department of Natural Resources and Mines.

The current stockpile of copper oxide ore, combined with the weekly delivery of 1,400 - 2,000 tonnes of copper oxide ore from external sources whilst the roads are open, is more than adequate to sustain production and form stockpiles, despite the wet season.

Drilling at Mt Norma With an unusually high activity of exploration by mining companies in the immediate and surrounding area for copper and the search for sulphide copper ore, the Company plans to drill some exploration holes during the second half of the financial year under the holes drilled by Mt Isa Mines in 1972 where high grade and wide intersections of copper mineralisation was intersected. Both MIM holes intersected mineralisation but of particular interest was Hole DDH-2, 20 metres below hole DDH-01 which intersected copper mineralisation over 30 metres with low grade Cu over 16 metres from 48.7m to 64.8m then high grade 6.8% Cu from 64.8m to 67.6m followed by another reportedly 10 metres of massive sulphides 3-5% Cu over the next 9.5 metres.

In 1972 when drilled by Mt Isa Mines Ltd, grades of 3% Cu were not considered economical for new mines. With the increase in the copper price 3% Cu is equivalent to approximately 7 grams/tonne gold.


regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 15 2005, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Shot off an email today to try and push for an update, lets see how long it'll take....
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 10 2005, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

See a couple of serious buyers moved in, some 450,000+ purchases, towards mthe end of the day.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 7 2005, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Silver, gold, zinc, lead and soon tin.


A drilling history.

http://home.iprimus.com.au/b_chris/mining%20-%20TGD.html
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 3 2005, 05:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I think the other thing we need to remeber is that they are in North QLD, due to the rain and heat nearly everyone takes the month of Feb of/ Also, when we were holidaying in the Daintree last year I was talking to an Ex-Victorian business woman who setup up there. She said one of her biggest frustrations was getting stuff done, eg. odrering stuff from Cairns took a couple of weeks where in Vic to would take a few days.

Theres Time and theres Nth Qld Time.........

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 2 2005, 08:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

On the production side I guesstimate that, given they get payment every thirty days;

$250,000 Recieved in Jan for Dec.
$150,000 Recieved in Feb for Jan, down due to rain.
$0 Recieved in Mar for Feb, down due to rain, worst case.

So revenue for March quarter should be around $450,000 -> $550,000.

Cheque for March should be huge, which unfortunatley comes in April, as they are still producing , it's just that they cannot truck the produce out due to flooding.

As for the so called New Issue you mention, it's not new, it's been around since Sept., and it's a convertible notes issue which is debt note equity.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 1 2005, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Bellpotter are desperate to move the price:

Profit ahead of consensus. Provides strong
production guidance

􀂄 Event: 2004 NPAT of US$329.2m. Benefits from IFRS
Lihir reported what looked to be a surprising profit of US$329.2m. However, if we
back out one-offs including tax credit, reversal of historical impairment charges
(LHG raised LT gold price assumption to US$380/oz), and accounting changes
under IFRS, we arrive at a profit of US$18.6m, cf UBS est of US$1m and IBES
consensus of US$14.2m. Thus the result was slightly better than consensus.

􀂄 Impact: IFRS accounting results in major adjustments
Our earnings estimates have been materially affected by the change of accounting
practices to follow IFRS. The realisation of deferred hedging costs (non-cash), and
realisation of hedging contracts (cash), has seen earnings adjusted by +9.4% for
FY 05e and -57.8% in FY 06e. Hedging adjustments also contributed to the large
decline in 06e earnings.

􀂄 Action: +ve production guidance issued. Supportive for price
Lihir also provided a production profile out to 2018e, suggesting average
production levels of c. 700koz pa till 2018. We believe the guidance issued is
above market estimates and should therefore be supportive for the share price as
the market adjusts valuations.

􀂄 Valuation: A$1.12 (DCF, 10% d.r)
Our valuation is $1.12. With our more positive view of gold as an investment
class, we believe Lihir offers very good turnaround potential. Our PT is based on
re-rating to peer multiples.

Forecast returns
Forecast price appreciation +53.2%
Forecast dividend yield 0.0%
Forecast stock return +53.2%
Market return assumption 10.5%
Forecast excess return +42.7%
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 28 2005, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

destra reports strong first half results
and launches destra Business

• Revenue for the half of $6.985 million (up 76% )
• Net Profit for the half of $0.423 million (up 333 %)
• EBITDA profit for the half of $0.727 million (up 586%)
• EPS of 0.54 cents per share
• Cash At Bank of over $1 million
• Launches destra Business unit
• Launches new Search Engine online marketing service
• Wins PowerTel Partner of the Year Award

destra Corporation Limited (ASX: DES) announced today a strong operating result for the Half Year ending 31 December 2004. “These financial results are encouraging and we expect this positive trend to continue into the foreseeable future,” said Domenic Carosa, destra CEO.
In January 2005, destra launched destra Business, a company providing end-to-end managed services and business communications solutions. destra Business is the result of the merger of two destra Corporation divisions - Techex Communications and OzHosting.com Advanced.

In early February 2005, destra Business’s communications arm (formerly known as Techex
Communications) was awarded the prestigious PowerTel Partner of the Year Award for a second year running.

destra Corporation, via its wholly owned subsidiary Yahoo! Webhosting by Ozhosting.com, also launched Australia’s most affordable Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) service for the SME market. “Because most websites are found via a search engine these days, businesses are starting to understand the value of being positioned high up in the search engine rankings. Our SEO web-based service helps them achieve this,” said Carosa.

The company’s Digital Media Services division (incorporating destraMusic.com) continues to perform within expectations. “We are continuing to focus on building relationships with content suppliers and distribution partners,” Carosa added. “We are taking a long term view with our digital music business and are just seeing the tip of the iceberg.”
- ENDS -
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 18 2005, 07:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Looks more like selling than buying to me.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 10 2005, 03:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

What date is the 'TIPS' drilling going to happen??
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jan 30 2005, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

This must be the single dodgiest takeover ever in the history of this state run plutocratic state of America, and mind you soon to be a dictatorship on 01.07.2005.

Transport magnate and close associate of John Howard CFR, Geoff DICKson and Richard Branson, after authorising the release of two downrades (being a board member he would have privy to any information), he launches a takeover bid for Virgin, which mind you is doing quite well.

For someone who owns the transport empire that he does, he must know that Virgin is a profitable company, therefore why would anyone want to sell their shares to him when there is more money to be made in the longterm??

If the takeover is succesful you can kiss the 'cheap' airfares we have been enjoying goodbye as Corrigan stives to increase the profitability of the company, another reason not to sell. Actually while we're on the topic of profits, with Corrigan wanting to change the reporting date of Virgin from the very close 31.03.2005 to 30.09.2005 I smell a rat as to the actuall profit the company would announce at the end of March. He's obviously desperate to stop the market finding out that the Net Profit may be around $175mill (yes I'm saying the downgrades seem bogus to me, I was very surprised when they were announced), by changing the report date to september he will be able to say 'Hey look how profitable I have made the company'.

So all you Qantas shareholders should be happy as fares will be going up, along with dividends, and all you VirginBlue shareholders are mad to sell while your on a good thing, made obvious by the takeover.

Oh and Mr Godfery does not care which way it goes as he walks away with tens of millions anyway.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jan 19 2005, 03:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Interesting times alright.

What a dismal failure that little exercise has become, they headed out saying they would raise $25mill and could only raise $2.5mill, pulled up $22.5mill short.

Oops.....
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Dec 29 2004, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

A falling share price, no update and this extract from a previous announcement:

"SkyNetGlobal expects to
complete the dual-listing in December 2004, when shares of SkyNetGlobal would begin trading
on AIM"


I'd say they're having trouble raising the money.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Dec 21 2004, 09:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

United Group’s property services business secures projects
worth $50 million


Integrates facilities management operations into United KFPW to form
Australia’s leading end-to-end property services operation
Leading services company United Group has strengthened its presence in the property
management sector by securing more than $50 million of capital works and facilities
management (FM) projects through the Group’s property management and FM business,
United KFPW.

The contracts secured are in response to United KFPW broadening its range of services to
include project management of major capital works programmes. This means United KFPW
can manage capital works programmes for its major customers such as ATO, NAB and
Telstra on top of its property management services.
United KFPW have also been appointed by the Commonwealth of Australia to assist in the
recently announced stage one security improvements in diplomatic missions overseas. This
appointment will be formalised by an extension to the existing contract between United
KFPW and the Commonwealth of Australia represented by the Department of Foreign Affairs
and Trade for the ongoing property and facilities management of the overseas estate.
United Group’s FM operations, previously part of the United KG business, have also been
integrated into United KFPW. This business can now offer customers the most
comprehensive range of property services, from site management, capital works programmes
and all associated facilities services.

Recent FM contract renewals and expansions include
• increased scope of works at Kingsford Smith Airport, Sydney over two years
• a new five year FM and maintenance services contract with the NSW Department of
Corrective Services including:
o Silverwater Correctional Centre Complex
o Parramatta Transitional Centre
o Norma Parker Periodic Detention Centre
o Corrective Services Academy at Eastwood
United Group’s Managing Director and CEO, Mr Richard Leupen says “Our move into
capital works management is leading the market, and has been driven primarily by the fact
that large users and owners of properties are seeking a coordinated and seamless approach to
all aspects of property management. We are the only company in the market presently
offering such an integrated range of services.
“Already we have secured projects to manage over $200 million of capital works
programmes, a clear indication that this is a new and emerging market in which we already
hold a strong position. Our strategy will be to demonstrate to our customers the inherent cost
savings by integrating any planned capital works programmes into our existing property
services contracts.


Page 2 of 2
‘By integrating our FM operations into United KFPW, we can now offer customers a very
wide range of services right across the value chain. The combined group will actively pursue
opportunities in Defence, hospitals and offer other service lines such as security,” Mr. Leupen
said.

The integrated United KFPW will have turnover of over $130m pa, an order book over
$375m and over 1,100 full time staff.

- ENDS -

For further information, please contact:
Richard Leupen – CEO
United Group Limited – Tel: 02 9492 8803
Teresa Aruego Easter – Group Manager Corporate Affairs
United Group Limited - Tel: 0401 147 822
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Dec 16 2004, 05:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

United Group (UGL) BUY 2
A transformed business—Buy 2 re-instated, current price $6.20[B]

[B]We have re-instated our Buy 2 recommendation on UGL
. With the
emergence of a number of tenders and statements of spending intentions in UGL’s
focus areas, we have become more comfortable that the likelihood of a
significant slowdown over the next few years is low and new contract flow will
continue to be strong. Upside also lies in contracts to be awarded next year to
upgrade the Sydney passenger car fleet from FY08 and increase maintenance
outsourcing which we believe could be worth at least $0.70 per share for UGL.
Our short term forecasts remain unchanged, however we have increased our
FY06 profit forecasts by 13%. UGL will once again have a heavy bias to the 2H in
its FY05 results and this may limit short term performance, however the bias has
once again been well flagged to the market.

We have a 12 month price target for UGL of $7.55 (ex 30cps in forecast
dividends) giving a 26.5% forecast total return.

No major slowdown seen on the horizon: Over the past few years, UGL
has been successful in focussing on areas of significant structural long term growth,
which have proven to be some of the industries most advantaged by outsourcing
trends. It has established leading positions in utilities infrastructure development
(water, power), rail rollingstock and property management outsourcing. We see
no slowdown in demand in these industries over at least the next 3-4 years. At the
same time, UGL has significantly reduced the proportion of its revenue coming from
the more cyclical resource related work.

Bellpotter 02.12.2004
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 25 2004, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I think todays trades tells an interesting story...... Someone is buying up.

regards.
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 17 2004, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Thought it might have been a bit harder to break 5c with all the issues at 4c.


Regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 17 2004, 05:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Given the companies technology and they currently have cash flow, once the FTA comes into effect does anyone see this company as a possible T/O target?? Opinions??

regards.

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 15 2004, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I'm set but I totally agree, probably bounce around 4-5c for a while, won't move until the numbers are in black and white.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 15 2004, 05:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Brokers report:

Brokers Report
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 13 2004, 12:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I see Hackett has stepped down.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 12 2004, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Sorry quite right, I stand corrected.

Sorry all.



  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 12 2004, 07:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Interesting how hard it is to miss things at the moment.

Yesterday a pre-consolidation equivalent of 28,372,145.45 shares changed hands. (37,154x42)

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 8 2004, 06:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

So, given that the stockbrokers still say that u have a shareholding in SKG and not SKGDA until the 15th, if I wanted to sell, for arguments sake 1,000,000 shares the formula would be thus:

1,000,000 / 42 = 23809.52, not divising equally you round up to the whole number of 23810, so this is the amount I can sell, yes??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 8 2004, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Can you sell you shareholding under SKGDA.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 3 2004, 11:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Australian Mining Investments reaches another milestone

Sale of Copper Sulphate Pentahydrate
The first shipment of copper sulphate pentahydrate from the Company’s Mt Norma operation was delivered to Orica Australia today. The shipment is part of a sales/purchase agreement between Australian Mining Investments Ltd and Orica under which Orica will purchase up to 10,000 tonnes of the product per annum.

Increase in Production
Cell Leach Vat No 3 is today 80% loaded with high leach copper ore and is expected in the next few days to commence supply of high grade solution to the treatment plant. This will enable production to be increased to 10,000 kilos per day of high grade copper sulphate pentahydrate.

Based on current levels of cash operating costs, the Directors believe the cost per tonne of product to be $263 per tonne operating at 10 tonne per day making the Company’s product unit cost one of the lowest in the world. Crushing of copper oxide ore for Cell Leach Vat No 4 has commenced. Australian Mining Investments is achieving the equivalent of A$4,800 per tonne per copper metal content or approx 33% above the LME copper metal price.

Yours faithfully
Wayne McCrae Director

1 2 9 F e r r y R o a d , S o u th p o r t , Q u e e n s la n d 4 2 1 5
T e lep h o n e : + 6 1 7 5 5 0 3 1 9 5 5 F a c s imi le: + 6 1 7 5 5 0 3 0 2 8 8
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Nov 1 2004, 11:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Funny thing is there not discoveries.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 29 2004, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

You could educate me here Bomber, but an additional $25mill would add 3-4c to the share price given shares on issue, yes??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 29 2004, 05:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Where's the report.....??
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 29 2004, 07:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Hello,

I am doing the 14 day trial at the moment, however when I try to chart ANY
stock or sector the chart shows me the whole month made up of 15min bars
(or whatever you choose), so it looks like a line chart, rather than the last 24hrs or so of trade, zooming
in does not work at all. Funny thing is Index/Fx/Metals charts are all fine.

Any ideas??

regards.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: Oct 27 2004, 07:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Third quarter oil and gas sales amount to $634,469.
Gas discovery in Hollywood Sands at Lake Long, Louisiana.
Eagle Prospect, California, waiting on farmin partners.
Bay Courant (Louisiana)Project agreement finalised; rig expected early November 2004.
South Grosse Tete (Louisiana) Project announced, rig tenders called for Dec drilling.
Langford 25 re-entry (Texas) planned for early November 2004


CHINA
Pre-development studies planned for Beibu Block 22/12 Offshore China.
Cluster of exploration targets in the vicinity of the 6-12-1 oil discovery estimated to have
potential in order of 50 million barrels recoverable.
Block renewed on back of new exploration potential in Wei 6-12 area and 50% upward
revision of reserves at Wei 12-8 Field.


AUSTRALIA
T18P Bass Basin (Offshore Tasmania) Trefoil 1 to spud Oct 2004.
Improved data likely to have positive impact on prospectivity of WA-254-P
Stokes Bay #1 Point Torment well delayed until 2005.

Cash at end of quarter 2,978,000
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 25 2004, 03:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

• Sickle gold oxide resource of 133,000 ozs (>0.8g/t cut off), a
73% increase on previous estimate (77,000 ozs).

• 1,002,000 ozs new resource estimate at Laverton.

• 20.7mt at 1.5 g/t Au total resource.

• RC drilling underway, designed extend and infill Sickle.

Crescent Gold Limited is pleased to report an upgrade of the gold mineral
resource for the Sickle deposit, located 5 km’s south east of the
Company’s Laverton Gold Plant north of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.
The resource estimate has been completed by independent resource
consultants, RSG Global (“RSG”) which has given its consent to the
announcement of the resource estimate.

The total Indicated and Inferred Resource at the Sickle Deposit:
6.05 mt at 1.8 g/t Au for 346,000 ounces of gold

A significant increase in contained gold has been achieved when compared
to the previous resource estimate of 6.0 million tonnes at 1.25 g/t containing
245,000 ounces of gold (18th June 2003 ASX Announcement).
This increase arises from a better definition of the mineralized boundary
from closer spaced drilling, higher intersected grades and an increase in
the dry bulk density for the Sickle Lode.
This resource is considered adequate for pit design and reserve estimation
for the feasibility study. The infill drilling is designed to improve confidence
for a Measured Resource estimate, and is expected to further enhance the
economics of the project. In the meantime, the company intends to complete
the Bankable Feasibility Study as outlined.

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 16 2004, 08:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: paulhart on Saturday 16/10/04 08:08am

Thanx Paul.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 16 2004, 06:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

For those that didn't sell in the mid-high thirties there are lessons to be learnt here, this one will settle down here for a while as it's just above fair-value.

The problem for gas companies in Australia now is the PNG pipeline that OSH and Co. are going to build to feed the east coast, increasing supply to industry and pushing down the market price for gas in Australia.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 14 2004, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Not much. They need to drill ahead to see if there's more.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 9 2004, 04:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I guess there's your answer, now if the sale goes through and they farm into Cue's share of Oyong, who knows how high.... Maybe 7-8c???

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 6 2004, 06:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

At least we know what they do when they run out of assets to sell to beef up their 'Revenue', issue stock in another country.

Market seems muted on this announcement, I guess it's a 'Show me the money' type of senario. As we saw this year it's not that easy to raise funds in the UK as you might expect (see Merlin Petroleum).

I'll be happy when I see revenue without all the one offs, $25mills going to be a big one off, no doubt that quarterly announcement will read 'SKG's revenue raises 1232131231%'. If they do get the cash it would be good to see them buy something that had recuring revenue, not just buy a companies to sell, to risky, share price will never move up.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 5 2004, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Exploration & Development Update Summary Drill Results from Budgery and Larsens Projects:

• Drilling from within the Larsens pit returns highly encouraging results including: o 4 m @ 5.0 % Cu from 28 m in LETP 007, ending in mineralisation o 9 m @ 7.2 % Cu from 34 m in LETP 008, including 6 m @ 8.6 % Cu from 39 m

• Drilling from surface at Larsens intersected an 8 m wide massive sulphide zone at the projected down dip extension of the in pit mineralisation in LRDT 06 A

• Follow up drilling around historical workings at Budgery, 14 km to the south west of Tritton, returned significant broad zones of copper - gold mineralisation including:

o 5 m @ 4.29 % Cu and 0.78 g/t Au from 128 m in BUDRC 018
o 36 m @ 1.05 % Cu and 0.13 g/t Au from 101 m in BUDRC 019, including 20 m @ 1.38% Cu from 108 m
o 17 m @ 1.38 % Cu from 99 m and 9 m @ 1.24 % Cu from 121 m and 21 m @ 0.84 % Cu from 141 m in BUDRC 020
o 44 m @ 1.14 % Cu from 61 m in BUDRC 021 including 19 m @ 1.57 % Cu from 80 m
o 7 m @ 3.38 % Cu from 36 m in BUDRC 026

Status of Project Development:
• Construction of plant proceeding on schedule for a December commissioning.
• Mining contractor mobilized to Murrawombie open pit.
• Freight arrangements to be finalized this month.
• Recruitment proceeding satisfactorily.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 5 2004, 08:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I hold LIO but I feel there are better less risky plays out there.

LIO's problem is the amount of shares on issue.

regards
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 4 2004, 09:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Speculators, day traders and they might actually make a profit this financial year.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 2 2004, 08:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

What a dodgy announcement.."Byte Power Group Limited’s Hong Kong subsidiary has today signed a Memorandum
of Understanding (“MOU”) to set up a joint venture (“JV”) with a Chinese company."

Note the lakc of the chinese companies name, and again.. "The next stage in moving towards a signed heads of agreement with this Chinese
joint venture partner involves Byte Power (Hong Kong) Ltd completing due diligence
by the end of October."


Warning!!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 2 2004, 05:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Sale completed. Buyback time, or buy up time??
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 2 2004, 05:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

He's talking about gas running out in America NOT Australia, we have enough gas to probably supply the nation, at current growth levels, for between 50 and 100yrs.

What he states is the cost of infrastucture to support LNG export is to high, for example, if ESG (or AOE,SHG,MOS.....) decided to export their gas for the 10yr life of the well, the return would be negative or next to nothing, as the LNG terminal would be paying very little for the gas so as to increase margin to recoupe the cost of the terminal/ships.

Also, as Kazakhstan is sitting on possibly the largest natual gas deposit in the world which will soon flood the markets on that continent, this will reduce the need for LNG imports.

So Australia's small time CSM companies have really only two markets to make serious money, electricity, like ESG and soonish QGC, and long term contracts to industry where costs of gas supply are not controlled by the influence of government like retail supply would be.

Only longterm gas field may be able to afford to export gas, for example the East Timor fields, as the life of the field will make them commercially viable.

regasrds.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 1 2004, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I think NZ gets most of their gas from Aust., could be wrong though.

Yes, we will probably export all our gas (not shaw if CSM has the same makeup as natural gas, so I don't no if you can use the same liquifying process) for a few numbers on a peice of paper and then in twenty years bitch and moan because we've ran out, bit like Spain exporting all the gold they took from South America for useless items.

Have a listen to this from Jim last week, LNG interview:

http://naiad.affordablehost.com/~master28/...2004-0925-2.mp3

regards.

  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 1 2004, 07:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Energy may well be the sector to be in at the moment (lets hope it continues for a while), but when it comes to gas Australia has toooooo much. As companies start producing more and more gas it will slowly push the price down. Texeco had a massive natural gas find off the coast of WA a few weeks ago.

Gas in Australia is worth between $2.50 and $3.50tcf and slowly falling, with more and more compaines like ESG (AOE,MOS,QGC,SHG......) all flouding the market with gas I would not be surprised to see the price drop to around $2.00 - $2.50 or less in 12 months.

If you want to invest in gas AMU, THK and PSA all have their hand in the American gas market, over there gas is running out and at USD$6.80tcf its a much better investment.

For now though the speculators will rule ESG, however with a parabolic rise up comes a parabolic fall, just don't be the one to get caught with your pants down.

I sold ESG at 36c and I am extremely pleased with my profits.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Oct 1 2004, 07:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Finally REVENUE......


Highlights
• Mt Norma Copper Sulphate production commenced.
• Plant commenced production and operating efficiently with a combination of conventional and AUM
Solvent Extraction technology.
• Completion of construction of two +25,000 tonne acid leach vats.
• Mining of Mt Norma high grade copper oxide orebody.
• Post end financial year – purchase of additional 280,000 tonnes of oxide copper ore to increase production
of copper sulphate and bring forward loading of vats while awaiting next cut to provide 280,000 tonnes of
+5% Cu ore from Mt Norma.
Mt Norma Copper Sulphate Project
The Company’s primary focus for the year has been to build the foundations for a long-term life for the Mt Norma
Copper Sulphate Treatment Plant. The Directors have taken the view to increase the strip back on the Mt Norma
Mine open cut which will allow a greater tonnage of ore to be mined in the final cut to access 280,000 tonnes of
high grade ore. The other option was to complete a smaller strip back to access less ore and have to go back and
re-strip. The decision was made due to the western face of the open cut having to be rock bolted every 2 metres for
rock stabilization. The smaller strip back would have given us ore quicker but would have meant removing the
rock bolts whilst re-stripping a second cut from the western face and having to repeat the exercise to go deeper.
The decision has been frustrating and it has restricted our production due to the length of time for the big strip
resulting in 2 of the 4 vats having remained empty. However, Directors made the hard decision, which we believe
in the long term to be of greater financial benefit to Australian Mining Investments Ltd and its shareholders.
The result in the short term has been limited production from only 14,000 tonnes leaching copper ore for the
treatment plant, which obviously restricted flow of copper solution to the production plant.
Over the year the improvements to the existing plant with the addition of a second crystallizer, thickener and
associated plant allowed the plant to increase the capacity to produce up to 20,000 kg (20 tonnes) of product per
day. However, the initial goal is to produce 10,000 kg (10 tonnes) per day. This goal will be achieved once the
two new vats are loaded with the copper oxide ore.


Production of Copper Sulphate
The plant is expected and budgeted to produce 3,650 tonnes of product from November 2004 to November 2005.
The total copper sulphate solution content in the vats over the next 12 months will contain a total of 8,000 tonnes of
copper sulphate product including solution. Budgeted revenue from the loaded vats over the next 12 months to
November 2005 is approximately $6.4m with a further $8m of product in solution remaining in the 4 vats to be
recovered the following year.


New Acid Storage
The Company has increased the sulphuric acid storage facility to 180 tonnes allowing the company to continue
production during the wet season. A new 24km road has been constructed to allow road train access for acid and
ore deliveries.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 28 2004, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

No, there's no oil.

The reason why I say it's profit time is:

Undiluted market cap of $88.5mill, this would be well above fair value as the power station will take three years to pay it's self off, so at the moment all revenue goes to paying down debt. Given that 11Pj is worth around $27mill, and they are already pulling that out for the power station, another find of the same size would increase the companies gas value by $27mill (Total now $54mill), given that they don't disclose there P1, P2 or P3 reserves except whats feeding the power station, it's hard to put a figure on what they have. Oh and also, if they find some more it's in the ground so it's worth less than half of it's out of ground value, so lets say $12mill valuing the company at $38mill + $8mill for power station and we'll throw in a couple of mill for fun, so it's now $50mill. They could enlarge the power station, that would drive up debt or down cash, they could sell as much gas as they can, but with everyone else doing the same thing so if you have not got a contract yet you could be in trouble.

I could go on but that enough for now.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 28 2004, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

profit taking time...
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 23 2004, 09:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: tezjm on Thursday 23/09/04 11:35am

Shares on issue.

At these prices ESG is still worth abouy $15mill more than SHG.

I don't think ESG is worth more than 40c until the next drill in a few weeks is succesful.

A good frac like the last might add a couple of cents but won't push it over 40c.

Hey, does anyone know if CSM can be turned into LNG and is there a trminal thats close by??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 16 2004, 07:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

thanks
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 16 2004, 06:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Do we know if they are shut-in?? and what is the potential damage to the platforms??

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 16 2004, 06:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Production is supposed to start soon, next month or two, does anyone know the exact approximate date is??

regards
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 14 2004, 09:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

14th September, 2004
The Company Announcements Office
The Australian Stock Exchange Limited
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
2004 SEISMIC SURVEYS COMPLETED

http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ohmy.gif LARGE NEW GAS PROSPECTS IDENTIFIED IN PEL238
Eastern Star Gas Limited (“ESG”) is pleased to announce that its 2004 seismic acquisition program has been
successfully completed, with a total of 506 kilometres of new data being acquired in the 100% owned New
South Wales licence areas PEL 238 (286 kms) and PELs 433/434 (110 kms) in the Gunnedah Basin, and PELs
8/422/424 (110 kms) in the Darling Basin.
ESG’s strategy is to explore in areas that have been under-explored with modern exploration techniques, but
have known prospectivity. The exploration activities are aimed at discovering new petroleum provinces (for
example, the Bohena sub-basin of the Gunnedah Basin) as opposed to reworking sedimentary basins in Eastern
Australia that have been explored for nearly 40 years, and where the discoveries at the larger end of the field
size distribution have in all likelihood already been made.

PEL 238 (Gunnedah Basin)
The 286 km seismic data acquisition program targeted both existing anticlinal leads and new prospects. The
previously identified Lynwood Prospect, located approximately 5 kms southwest of the producing Coonarah
Gas Field, has been successfully delineated. The location has been selected for an exploration wildcat well
targeting conventional reservoirs, Lynwood-1, and the well is to be drilled as soon as the drilling of Bohena
South-1 (spudded on 10 September 2004 and currently drilling ahead - see announcement of 13 September
2004) is completed. The Lynwood Prospect is mapped to be of a similar size to the Coonarah Gas Field, which
has certified proved and probable (2P) gas reserves of 11.3 petajoules.
In addition to the delineation of a number of new and previously identified leads, a new and large anticline,
named Brigalow Park, has been discovered 3 kms southeast of the Coonarah Gas Field and south of the
connecting pipeline to the Wilga Park power station. Brigalow Park has an interpreted vertical closure nearly
10 times larger than the Coonarah Gas Field. An exploration well targeting conventional sandstone reservoirs is
to be drilled on this new prospect immediately after Lynwood-1.

PEL 433/434 (Gunnedah Basin)
As with PEL 238, located to the north and east respectively, these licence areas are prospective for both
conventionally reservoired and coal seam gas. Both licence areas have little previous seismic control, and the
110 km seismic survey concentrated on delineating the prospective area within the interpreted sub-basin areas
and providing additional control over known anticlinal leads. Results to date indicate that the sedimentary
section is much thicker and more widespread than anticipated, particularly in the western part of the licence
areas, thus significantly extending the prospective area

PEL 8/422/424 (Darling Basin)
These licence areas are prospective for conventionally reservoired oil and gas, and 110 kms of new seismic data
acquisition has recently been completed over known anticlinal leads in a program designed to upgrade these
leads to drillable prospect status. These newly acquired data are in the early stages of seismic processing.
Patrick Sam Yue
Company Secretary[B][/B][COLOR=purple][U][/U] ohmy.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 12 2004, 06:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Lets take a quick look at ESG.

Approx. $11m in cash.
Income of around $3.5m from Electricity (Smart move).
The 11.3 PJ Coonarah Gas Field is worth around $27,500,000, nice profit as they're selling it for $35m, vertical intergration helps.

If they can prove up Bohena South-1C to have 3,700PJ or even 1,000PJ they would have $2,500,000,000 out of the ground.

$3.5m of cash coming in and the prospect of expanding the electricity generating facility bodes well for this company.

regards
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 11 2004, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I'd figure, going off this years numbers, that the contract would take them to a profit of around $1m, this is only this contract, any other numbers, like current revenue would be additional. They still have along way to go, but I figure they are a little undervalued, my guesstimation is that they are worth .23c, any more is a sell, under .19 is a buy. But i'm probably wrong.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 11 2004, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Are my calculations correct:

Queensland Gas Company Ltd (QGC) today announced that it has agreed to terms for the supply of 74 Petajoules (PJ) of coal seam gas over 10 years to Incitec Pivot Limited’s Gibson Island manufacturing plant in Brisbane.

ok, if 1 petajoule is roughly equivalent to 1 billion cubic feet and one thousand cubic feet is worth $2.50 -$3.50, then A petajoule could therefore be worth somewhere between AUD $2.5m and $3.5m.

So, 74x $2.5m = $185,000,000 over ten years.

I think QGC share is 59%, so they may see $92,000,000.

This is all guess work as I have not seen the contract, and they have to prove up another 7PJ yet.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 10 2004, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

In reply to: mosaic1996 on Friday 10/09/04 06:06pm

Voyager is doing extremely well.

With Jingemia being around 8mmbbls, Cliff Head at 21mmbbls that gives Voyager:

11%x 8mmbbls = 880,000x USD$30 = USD$26,400,000 out of the ground and around USD$8,800,000 in the ground.

6%x 21mmbbls = 1,260,000x USD$30 = USD$37,800,000 out of the ground and around USD$12,600,000 in the ground.

If Fiddich-1 hits 100mmbbls there's another USD$300,000,000, but they have to get there yet, late Oct. early Nov. is the target date. Hadda at 68mmbbls would add USD$204,000,000.

Excellent prospects, good cash flow (around 400 barrels a day at the moment from Jingemia (400x 30 = USD$12,000 / .7 = $A17,142.86)) and strong management.

I hold this company, and will buy more when over sold.

regards.

http://www.voyagerenergy.com.au/projects.html
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Sep 3 2004, 11:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

At last, the first 25,000kg of high lab grade copper sulphate has been produced (after 2yrs, directors even seem releaved), this should fetch $300 per kilo (25000x300=$7.5mill).

The other two vats are being loaded to ramp upto 300 tonnes of agricultural product per month. (300x$2000=$600,000).

Even at $600,000 per month, the company is making $7.2m per year.

I'd like to see one more announcement saying they've recieved money from Orica.

regards
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 30 2004, 01:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Tex,

At a glance I see over $6Mill in one offs from the sale of sub and receipts from customers at only $2.5Mill., removing the $6Mill would be interesting.

Companies should not be allowed to add sales for subsidiaries, which are one offs, to revenue. I'd like to see the numbers for WHome too.

I wish they hade have made it to around .035, DAMB!!!

chris
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 26 2004, 10:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Dear Shareholders,

The year ending 30 June 2004 has been a very successful one for your Company, and we
are pleased to provide herewith the UXC Limited Preliminary Final Report.

In a year of many highlights, some of the more notable include the following:

• Revenue of $189.07 million,
up 63.9%
Revenue has grown significantly due to a
combination of organic growth and the impact
of acquisitions.

• EBITDA of $18.738 million,
up 108%
Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation
and amortization has grown dramatically,
evidencing the robust performance of UXC
Business Units.

• PBT of $11.776 million,
up 76%
Profit before tax has grown substantially, after
absorbing a 112% increase in depreciation
and amortization, to $6.937 million, and a
$1 million reduction in net interest income.
These fluctuations reflect the investments being
made by UXC in operating businesses.

• NPAT of $9.015 million,
up 35%
Income tax expense increased by $2.724
million from the prior year.

• Research & Development costs
expensed
All research and development costs incurred in
operating divisions have been expensed in the
P&L in the period in which incurred.

• Contracts in hand of $124 million UXC has substantial annuity income,
representing 65% of FY2004 revenue. Of this,
$51 million extends beyond 12 months, and
$23 million is subject to annual renewal.

• Cash and Investments of
$16.868 million
Investments have good capital gain potential,
but did not contribute to earnings during the
period.

• Goodwill amortization of
$3.214 million, up 174%
Goodwill amortization has risen as a result of
the acquisition program. Underlying earnings
were robust enough to amply cover this cost
increase, the accounting treatment of which
will change under IFRS from FY2006.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 23 2004, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

The aquisitions are a little bit of a worry, however what has worried me most is the large increase in inventories, places some risk on this stock and has been taken off the conservative buy list. ROIC is at 6.15%, ROCE is at 9.51%, margins increased across the board (Gross, Operating, Pre-Tax and Net).

It's just those inventories are a worry.

Good buying in the sixties, however I doubt if we get there.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 18 2004, 07:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I'm still a little confused about this:

Q4-2004
receipts from customers =$322k
net operating cash flows =($851)

regards
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Aug 5 2004, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Excellent expanation, thanks for the help.

regards.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: Aug 5 2004, 08:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Hi Flasherman,

Here's a link to the spreadsheet, you'll see the DCF short cut at the top

http://home.iprimus.com.au/b_chris/SharesMXI.html

Thanks for the help.

Also, what do you think of the Spanish Govt. query of the COE/PCL Moroccan sea exploration deal??

regards + thanks in advance.

chris
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: Aug 4 2004, 04:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

when calculating DCF, what is the best value to use for the Second Stage Growth Rate??

regards.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

chris
Posted on: Jul 30 2004, 08:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Is this our Cooper??

Ground Floor 288 Stirling Street, Perth Western Australia 6000 P O Box 8260 Perth Business Centre Western Australia 6849 Tel: (61 8) 9227 3220 Fax: (61 8) 9227 3211 Email: svalbe@pancon.com.au Web: www.pancon.com.au PANCONTINENTAL Oil & Gas NL ACN 003 029 543 Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL increases North African Interests Morocco Reconnaissance Licence to be Granted Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL (“Pancontinental”) has increased its North African petroleum exploration interests by entering into contract with ONAREP, the Moroccan Government petroleum entity paving the way for the granting of a Reconnaissance Licence (RL) over the area known as Mediterranee Est. in the Moroccan waters of the Mediterranean Sea. It is anticipated that the RL will be formally granted within the next few days. Pancontinental has been joined in the venture by Afrex Limited (Afrex) and Cooper Energy (BVI) Limited (“Cooper”). Pancontinental will have a 32% interest, Afrex a 48% interest, whilst Cooper will earn a 20% interest. Cooper will earn its 20% in the Reconnaissance License by contributing US175,000 towards the first year minimum work program. The first year minimum work program is the acquisition, processing and interpretation of 500 kilometres 2D offshore seismic and the study of existing data. Costs in excess of US$175,000 will be shared amongst the participants in accordance with their respective equities Under the terms of the joint venture, Cooper may elect to acquire a further 10% interest in the Reconnaissance Licence from Pancontinental and Afrex by contributing US$175,000 to the costs of the second year of the Reconnaissance Licence. The second year of the Reconnaissance Licence has a minimum work commitment of US$300,000. Pancontinental regards the permit as an outstanding low cost opportunity with the potential for billion barrel oil discoveries and multi TCF gas discoveries. Two major play types have been defined in the area. The first is the Tertiary (Messinian) mass flow deposits (‘turbidites’) onlapping onto the basement ridges. The turbidites are blanketed by an extensive and more than 1,000 metres thick interpreted regional seal of Pliocene shale and marls. The largest of the turbidite related leads that have been mapped to date, has the potential for world class oil or gas accumulations. The second play type is interpreted as shale-cored diapiric structures, which also have the potential for world class hydrocarbon accumulations. Similar shale and salt ‘diapir’ related traps, are the central controls for hydrocarbon accumulations in the highly prospective Gulf of Mexico, offshore Nigerian, and more recently offshore Mauritania productive areas. Within the entire Western Mediterranean offshore Moroccan area only three exploration wells have been drilled, none of which are considered to be valid tests. While there is a broad regional grid of existing seismic lines in the southern areas of the permit, the northern area requires a comparable regional grid of modern seismic to fully define the full inventory of possible leads and prospects. During the first year of the Reconnaissance Licence the Joint Venture will shoot 500 km of high quality 2D seismic to achieve this objective.
While oil is the principal thrust of the exploration project, if gas is found the main gas pipeline from Algeria to Spain and the European grid runs south of the block onshore Morocco. Gas consumption in Europe is extremely high and a gas discovery in the Mediterranean would be very close to this market. For further information please contact: Mr. Andrew Svalbe Director, CEO Tel: 08 9227 3220 Fax: 08 9227 3211 Email: svalbe@pancon.com.au It is advised that in accordance with the Australian Stock Exchange Limited Listing Rule 5.10, 5.11, 5.12 and 5.13 that the summary report on the oil and gas projects is based on information compiled by Mr A K Svalbe, BSc (Hons), AAPG, ASEG, FESWA, PESA, Chief Executive Officer of Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL and accurately reflects the information compiled by Mr Svalbe.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 30 2004, 07:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Quarterly

ASX Announcement 30th July 2004 Lion Energy Ltd (LIO) Quarterly Report for period 1 April 2004 to 30 June 2004 HIGHLIGHTS FOR QUARTER 􀂾 Production during the quarter of 46,186 barrels of 23 API crude oil from the Bula Oilfield (100% LIO), at an average of 508 bopd. 􀂾 Crude oil lifted and sold in April 2004 from the Bula Oilfield amounted to 51,910 barrels at US$27.87 per barrel. 􀂾 Oseil production continues throughout the period. 􀂾 Entek Energy Limited spin-off approved.

OPERATIONS

1. Seram Joint Venture Area LIO 2.5% Kufpec 97.5% (Operator) Production from the oilfield continued throughout the period with average well uptime in June 2004 of 99% for the three wells. In April 2004, 296,204 barrels were lifted and revenue from this lifting of US$180,708 was received in late May 2004 and used to partly offset cash calls for Phase II development. A further lifting of approximately 340,000 to 380,000 barrels is scheduled for mid to late August 2004. The Phase II drilling programme is scheduled to spud the first development well in early September 2004. The Phase II development is forecast to increase production to approximately 18,000 barrels per day by the second quarter 2005.


2. Bula Field (100% Lion) Production for the quarter amounted to 46,186 barrels at an average of 508 barrels of oil per day. In April, 2004 51,190 barrels were lifted with a selling price per barrel of US$27.87, resulting in gross revenue of US$1,446,731.70. Net proceeds of US$1,110,703.48 were received on 29 June 2004. Oil in stock at 30 June 2004 was 44,897 barrels.

3. Cooper Basin PEL 115 Drilling is expected to commence in mid – late August on the first two wells in this permit. Depending on the results there are several prospects with a similar geological signature which could be drilled. PEL 104 / PEL 111 Drilling of three wells in these permits is expected to commence in September with one well in PEL 111 followed by two wells in PEL 104. Summary Evaluation work is still being carried out in all of the above permits with some seismic recording and reprocessing still to carry out. Final decisions on the work programme are subject to Joint Venture parties agreement.

4. Other The company held an Extraordinary General Meeting on 6 July 2004 and obtained Shareholder approval for a capital reduction and spin-off of Entek Energy Limited. On 24 June 2004 Entek Energy Limited lodged a prospectus for an Initial Public Offering. GA Mercorella
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 29 2004, 10:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Thanks for the Ian for your guidance (post.21/07), I sat down and did the sums on BPT and COE, I rightfully chose COE, started buying Wednesday morning just before the Quarterly, feel I owe you a beer.

Good luck with Merlin, I've ordered my prospectus, however I will be comparing it to Enteck.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 29 2004, 07:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Jingemia-4 was successfully drilled as a second oil production well and is being brought on production effective 30 July. This should support gross production building up to 4,000 bopd during August, with up to 440 bopd net to Voyager. Importantly, the results of the extended production test of Jingemia-1 (which continued producing throughout the quarter) and Jingemia-4 strongly supports a significant upgrade to reserves in the field. There is general agreement by the Origin Energy operated joint venture that there is potential for up to 15 million barrels of recoverable oil in the field, 85-90% of which would be located within the newly issued Jingemia production licence L14. Voyager is confident that proved and probable recoverable reserves of 8 to 11 million barrels are present which will require additional development drilling and 3D seismic to convert to proved reserves.








Voyager Energy Limited QUARTERLY REPORT FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 June 2004 HIGHLIGHTS 􀂃 Strengthening share price following April capital raising. 􀂃 Jingemia production licence issued. 􀂃 Jingemia-4 well successful with flow potential of 3,500 bopd. 􀂃 Jingemia reserves upgraded (potential to more than double). 􀂃 Two rigs contracted for offshore exploration drilling program in Q4, 2004. 􀂃 30 June 2004 cash balance $9.2 million.
Page 2
GENERAL During the quarter Voyager settled on the transactions with Wandoo Petroleum and Arc Energy which increased our ownership in the Cliff Head and Jingemia oil fields to 6.0% and 11.0% respectively. The additional investment in the Jingemia field has already shown a very good value gain with Voyager confident of at least a doubling of recoverable reserves. Additional engineering work has been required on the Cliff Head field but first oil is still scheduled for late 2005. The Company has a strong cash balance and our offshore drilling program is continuing to firm up with two prospects already agreed by the relevant joint ventures and two offshore drilling rigs contracted. WA-286-P/Cliff Head (6.0%) – offshore, Perth Basin Voyager settled acquisition of an additional 1.0% in the project from Wandoo Petroleum on 27 April 2004. Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) has been extended and will be complete by September. This should support a final investment decision in December with first oil scheduled for the end of 2005. One of the important processes for the issue of a production licence for the Cliff Head field is the Public Environmental Review or “PER”. Public comment on the PER has been received and Operator ROC Oil has prepared responses which have been submitted to the authorities. Matters appear to be progressing well with relevant environmental approvals from both state and federal authorities anticipated in September. Remapping of the exploration potential in the block was completed in the quarter identifying several attractive follow up prospects, in particular Frankland with 30 to 40 million barrels potential. Additional seismic will be acquired prior to probable drilling in 2005. EP 413 (Jingemia) and L14 (Jingemia production licence) (11.0%) – onshore, Perth Basin Voyager settled acquisition of an additional 4.73% equity from Arc* on 4 June 2004. This has already proven to be an astute purchase. Jingemia-4 was successfully drilled as a second oil production well and is being brought on production effective 30 July. This should support gross production building up to 4,000 bopd during August, with up to 440 bopd net to Voyager. Importantly, the results of the extended production test of Jingemia-1 (which continued producing throughout the quarter) and Jingemia-4 strongly supports a significant upgrade to reserves in the field. There is general agreement by the Origin Energy operated joint venture that there is potential for up to 15 million barrels of recoverable oil in the field, 85-90% of which would be located within the newly issued Jingemia production licence L14. Voyager is confident that proved and probable recoverable reserves of 8 to 11 million barrels are present which will require additional development drilling and 3D seismic to convert to proved reserves.
Page 3
Accordingly, recording of a 3D seismic survey will commence in October with first data available for interpretation near the end of 2004. Development well Jingemia-5 is a firm budget item and will be drilled as soon as possible thereafter. During the June quarter Voyager derived net operating income (“NOI”) of $546,000 from 15,803 net barrels of Jingemia oil production and the Company projects NOI of over $4.0 million during fiscal 2005. *By pre-agreement with Voyager, Arc on-sold equity in the project (plus interests in exploration licences TP/15 and EP 368) after acquiring a suite of Perth Basin assets from Hardman Resources Ltd. WA-226-P (10.0%) – offshore, Perth Basin The Sedco 703 drilling rig has been contracted to drill Fiddich-1 in October/November of this year. Voyager believes the 100 million barrel potential prospect will be one of the most exciting drilling projects in Australia in 2004. WA-325-P and WA-327-P (10.0% in each licence) – offshore, Perth Basin The Ensco 56 jack up drilling rig has been contracted on the basis of a 1 firm plus 3 optional well program to begin in October. The Roc operated WA-325-P Joint Venture has agreed that the firm well will be Hadda-1 on a 68 million barrel potential structure. Discussions are continuing as to which other prospects will be included in the firm drilling program. WA-349-P (50.0%) – offshore, Perth Basin Planning for a 2D seismic survey has commenced. TP/15 (15.0%) – offshore, Perth Basin Planning is advancing to acquire a specialist, transition zone (that is shallow water) 2D seismic survey over leads highlighted by the 2003 geophyscial surveys. Although logistically difficult to operate in, Voyager considers this acreage highly prospective. There is potential that prospects matured by the planned transition zone seismic could be drilled from onshore. The main benefit if a discovery was made would be reduced development costs compared with an offshore development. EP 368 (30.0%) – onshore, Perth Basin No activity.
Page 4
CORPORATE Voyager now has on issue 139,734,230 shares after successfully raising $13.8 million before costs through a placement and rights issue completed during the June quarter. The rights issue was underwritten by Hartleys Ltd and was well supported by Voyager’s shareholders who took up almost 90% of the issue. Since making the placement at 24 cents and the rights issue at 20 cents (with a 1 for 2 free attaching option) Voyager has been pleased with a steady strengthening in the share price. At report time with shares and options trading at 27.5 cents and 9 cents respectively, rights issue investors have gained 60% on their investment in just a few months. Further information on Voyager’s activities can be found on the Company’s website www.voyagerenergy.com.au John D Begg Managing Director
Appendix 5B
Mining exploration entity quarterly report
Rule 5.3 Appendix 5B Mining exploration entity quarterly report Introduced 1/7/96. Origin: Appendix 8. Amended 1/7/97, 1/7/98, 30/9/2001. Name of entity Voyager Energy Limited ABN Quarter ended (“current quarter”) 3600 895 4925 30 June 2004 Consolidated statement of cash flows Cash flows related to operating activities Current quarter $A’000 Year to date (12 months) $A’000 1.1 Receipts from product sales and related debtors 961 1,564 1.2 Payments for (a) exploration and evaluation (b) development/facilities © production (d) administration (e) new ventures (f) financing (349) (230) (217) (291) (62) (88) (2,289) (607) (366) (1,021) (344) (88) 1.3 Dividends received - - 1.4 Interest and other items of a similar nature received 78 136 1.5 Interest and other costs of finance paid - - 1.6 Income taxes paid - - 1.7 Other (provide details if material) - - Net Operating Cash Flows (198) (3,015) Cash flows related to investing activities 1.8 Payment for purchases of: (a)prospects (b)equity investments ©other fixed assets (4,490) - (16) (4,490) - (66) 1.9 Proceeds from sale of: (a)oil & gas interests (b)equity investments ©other fixed assets - - - 2,000 - - 1.10 Loans to other entities - - 1.11 Loans repaid by other entities - - 1.12 Other - net payments relating to sale of property - - Net investing cash flows (4,506) (2,556) 1.13 Total operating and investing cash flows (carried forward) (4,704) (5,571)
Appendix 5B Page 1
Appendix 5B
Mining exploration entity quarterly report
1.13 Total operating and investing cash flows (brought forward) (4,704) (5,571) Cash flows related to financing activities 1.14 Proceeds from issues of shares, options, etc. 11,191 13,791 1.15 Proceeds from sale of forfeited shares - - 1.16 Proceeds from borrowings - - 1.17 Repayment of borrowings - - 1.18 Dividends paid - - 1.19 Other (costs of shares issued) (947) (972) Net financing cash flows 10,244 12,819 Net increase (decrease) in cash held 5,540 7,248 1.20 Cash at beginning of quarter/year to date 3,728 2,020 1.21 Exchange rate adjustments to item 1.20 - - 1.22 Cash at end of quarter 9,268 9,268 Payments to directors of the entity and associates of the directors Payments to related entities of the entity and associates of the related entities Current quarter $A'000 1.23 Aggregate amount of payments to the parties included in item 1.2 151 1.24 Aggregate amount of loans to the parties included in item 1.10 - 1.25 Explanation necessary for an understanding of the transactions Payments to directors relates to directors’ fees, consulting fees and salary paid in the quarter. Non-cash financing and investing activities 2.1 Details of financing and investing transactions which have had a material effect on consolidated assets and liabilities but did not involve cash flows N/A 2.2 Details of outlays made by other entities to establish or increase their share in projects in which the reporting entity has an interest N/A Appendix 5B Page 2
Appendix 5B
Mining exploration entity quarterly report
Financing facilities available Add notes as necessary for an understanding of the position. Amount available $A’000 Amount used $A’000 3.1 Loan facilities - - 3.2 Credit standby arrangements - - Estimated cash outflows for next quarter $A’000 4.1 Exploration and evaluation 1,237 4.2 Development/facilities 971 Total 2,208 Reconciliation of cash Reconciliation of cash at the end of the quarter (as shown in the consolidated statement of cash flows) to the related items in the accounts is as follows. Current quarter $A’000 Previous quarter $A’000 5.1 Cash on hand and at bank 169 803 5.2 Deposits at call 8,700 2,500 5.3 Bank overdraft - - 5.4 Other – cash in joint ventures 399 425 Total: cash at end of quarter (item 1.22) 9,268 3,728 Changes in interests in mining tenements Tenement reference Nature of interest (note (2)) Interest at beginning of quarter Interest at end of quarter 6.1 Interests in mining tenements relinquished, reduced or lapsed 6.2 Interests in mining tenements acquired or increased Appendix 5B Page 3
Appendix 5B
Mining exploration entity quarterly report
Issued and quoted securities at end of current quarter Description includes rate of interest and any redemption or conversion rights together with prices and dates. Total number Number quoted Issue price per security (see note 3) (cents) Amount paid up per security (see note 3) (cents) 7.1 Preference +securities (description) N/A 7.2 Changes during quarter (a) Increases through issues (b) Decreases through returns of capital, buy-backs, redemptions 7.3 +Ordinary securities 139,734,230 139,734,230 Fully paid Fully paid 7.4 Changes during quarter (a) Increases through issues (b) Decreases through returns of capital, buy-backs © Restricted securities at end of escrow period 55,833,350 150,000 856 55,833,350 150,000 856 $0.20 $0.16 $0.25 $0.20 $0.16 $0.25 7.5 +Convertible debt securities (description) N/A 7.6 Changes during quarter (a) Increases through issues (b) Decreases through securities matured, converted 7.7 Options (description and conversion factor) 39,348,412 27,915,949 Exercise price See attached schedule Expiry date See attached schedule 7.8 Issued during qtr 27,916,805 27,916,805 0.25 31 March 2006 7.9 Exercised during qtr 150,000 856 - 856 0.16 0.25 12 September 2004 31 March 2006 7.10 Expired during quarter - (a) Cancelled during quarter - (b) Restricted securities at end of escrow period - 7.11 Debentures (totals only) N/A Appendix 5B Page 4
Appendix 5B
Mining exploration entity quarterly report
7.12 Unsecured notes (totals only) N/A Compliance statement 1 This statement has been prepared under accounting policies which comply with accounting standards as defined in the Corporations Act or other standards acceptable to ASX (see note 4). 2 This statement does give a true and fair view of the matters disclosed. Sign here: ......................................................... Date: 29 June 2004 (Managing Director) Print name: JOHN BEGG Notes 1 The quarterly report provides a basis for informing the market how the entity’s activities have been financed for the past quarter and the effect on its cash position. An entity wanting to disclose additional information is encouraged to do so, in a note or notes attached to this report. 2 The “Nature of interest” (items 6.1 and 6.2) includes options in respect of interests in mining tenements acquired, exercised or lapsed during the reporting period. If the entity is involved in a joint venture agreement and there are conditions precedent which will change its percentage interest in a mining tenement, it should disclose the change of percentage interest and conditions precedent in the list required for items 6.1 and 6.2. 3 Issued and quoted securities The issue price and amount paid up is not required in items 7.1 and 7.3 for fully paid securities. 4 The definitions in, and provisions of, AASB 1022: Accounting for Extractive Industries and AASB 1026: Statement of Cash Flows apply to this report. 5 Accounting Standards ASX will accept, for example, the use of International Accounting Standards for foreign entities. If the standards used do not address a topic, the Australian standard on that topic (if any) must be complied with. == == == == == Appendix 5B Page 5
Appendix 5B
Mining exploration entity quarterly report
VOYAGER ENERGY LIMITED OPTIONS – DESCRIPTION AND TERMS AS AT 30 JUNE 2004 Expiration Date Exercise Price Quoted Unquoted Total 12 September 2004 20 cents - 157,563 157,563 12 September 2004 25 cents - 5,000,000 5,000,000 31 March 2006 25 cents 27,915,949 - 27,915,949 12 September 2006 20 cents - 75,000 75,000 12 September 2006 40 cents - 5,000,000 5,000,000 31 December 2006 21 cents - 999,900 999,900 16 March 2008 16 cents - 200,000 200,000 27,915,949 11,432,463 39,348,412 Appendix 5B Page 6
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jul 21 2004, 09:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Hello Ian,

At the moment I am considering either investing in BPT or COE and was wondering you reasons as to why you favour COE.

On the surface BPT seems the better company with the amount coming in and cash in the bank.

regards,

chris
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jun 16 2004, 03:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Have alook at the discussions here, they should make an announcement on ballymoney this month.

http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/fo...l=FLX&table=ASX

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: May 31 2004, 05:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Felix Resources Limited ACN 000 754 174 ABN 75 000 754 174
Postal: PO BOX 10470 Brisbane Adelaide Street QLD 4000 Delivery: 260 Queen Street Brisbane QLD 4000 Australia
T (61-7) 3229 4277 F (61-7) 3211 7328 E admin@felixresources.com.au W www.felixresources.com.au
1 June 2004
Australian Stock Exchange
Company Announcements
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
EXERCISE OF OPTION OVER MINERVA COAL PROJECT
Felix Resources Limited (Felix) will exercise its option to purchase 70% of the Minerva Coal Project
from New Hope Exploration Pty Ltd.
Purchase consideration includes an upfront payment of $1.75 million, a payment of $1.75 million in
twelve months, and annual payments of $0.5 million for eight years once production is underway.
Royalties are payable on any underground coal and coalbed methane production.
Minerva is a greenfields coal deposit located 40km south of Emerald in Queensland’s Bowen Basin.
The Project is prospective for early development as a 2.5 million tonne per annum open-cut mine
supplying unwashed, high-volatile, high-energy PCI and thermal coal to the export market.
A mining lease is already granted for the Project and a feasibility study is well advanced for
developing an open-cut mine over this area. The Project also entails an extensive adjacent
exploration permit which has significant underground potential for similar quality coal.
“Minerva is a strong step towards realising Felix’s growth objective”, said Ian McCauley, Felix’s
Chairman and major shareholder. “Minerva has good near-term prospects for augmenting
production capacity owned and managed by Felix. It also has potential, through exploration, to
provide additional reserves suitable for commercial exploitation. Development of the Project will
provide Felix with a broader customer base as well as geographic and product diversity”, said Ian
McCauley.
Minerva is being progressed in parallel with a Yarrabee expansion that will take Yarrabee capacity
and sales to 1.7 million tonnes per annum. This expansion is underway and on-track to support
Yarrabee forecast sales in 2004/2005 of 1.7 million tonnes. The short and medium-term outlook for
the coal industry remains very strong for all market segments. Felix is forecasting a strong year in
2004/2005 and views the Minerva Coal Project as a means of maintaining the growth momentum.
Contact details for further information
Mr Jon Parker Mr Mark McCauley
Managing Director CFO & Company Secretary
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 19 2004, 07:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

FELIX RESOURCES LIMITED QUARTERLY REPORT
for the Quarter ended 31 March 2004
The Directors are pleased to submit the following report on the operating performance of Felix
Resources Limited for the March 2004 Quarter.
HIGHLIGHTS
· Yarrabee FY 2004 coal sales expected to exceed the 1.4 million tonne forecast.
· Yarrabee’s planned FY 2005 coal production of 1.7 million tonnes committed to sales
contracts.
· Yarrabee expansion on track to provide sustainable annual capacity of 1.7 million tonnes by
mid-year.
· Gladstone port congestion contributed to higher than normal levels of demurrage of
$637,234 in the Quarter.
· Option entered into, to purchase 70% of the Minerva Coal Project.



YARRABEE COAL COMPANY
Operating performance
March Quarter Financial Year-to-Date
2004
(’000)
2003
(’000)
2004
(’000)
2003
(’000)
Overburden Removal (bcm*) 3,047 2,559 9,587 8,151
Raw Coal Mined (tonnes) 411 187 1,101 911
Coal Sold (tonnes) 469 299 1,274 863
Coal Stocks at end of period (tonnes) 181 196 181 196
*Bank cubic metres
Table 1
The Quarter’s performance compared to the same period last financial year was: primary mining
activity (overburden removal) increased 19% from 2,558,914 to 3,046,553 bcm; coal production
increased 119% from 187,338 to 410,568 tonnes; and coal sales (including purchased coal)
increased 57% from 299,044 to 468,524 tonnes.
Year-to-date figures are also favourable when compared to the equivalent period last financial
year: primary mining activity was up 18%; coal production increased 21%; and coal sales were up
by 48%.
Performances for the Quarter and year-to-date were at record levels for the above metrics (Table 1).
FY 2004 coal sales are now expected to exceed the latest forecast of 1.4 million tonnes.
Production at Yarrabee North is on track to begin by the end of June 2004.
A 490 tonne excavator has been purchased and will be commissioned in July 2004. It will augment
the overburden removal fleet and enable current production/sales rates of 1.7 million tonnes per
annum to be sustained. The reconfigured overburden fleet is expected to deliver reduced unit
cost of overburden removal.
Demurrage continued at higher than normal levels ($637,234) for the Quarter. Gladstone port
congestion and coal stock availability were the main contributing factors.




Exploration

Capitalised exploration expenditure was $16,585 for the Quarter and $462,749 year-to-date.
Activity during the Quarter focussed on assessing results from previous drilling activities; and
preparing a comprehensive reserve delineation program for commencement in April 2004.
An intensive field work program planned to be undertaken within the mining leases and
exploration tenements surrounding Yarrabee is scheduled to commence in the current Quarter
and continue over the next eighteen months.



Marketing

Planned FY 2005 coal production of 1.7 million tonnes is now fully covered by sales contracts.
Shipments are destined for Japan, Europe, USA, Korea and Rio Tinto’s HIsmelt Project in Western
Australia.
NORTHERN IRELAND BALLYMONEY MINE & POWER PROJECT
A decision regarding the Company’s application to renew the Ballymoney Prospecting Licence is
expected in June 2004.
OTHER ASSETS
South Australian Tenements
No exploration or development activities on SASE’s (90% Felix) iron ore tenements or Felix’s South
Australian coal tenements were undertaken during the Quarter.
ACQUSITIONS AND GROWTH STRATEGY
During the Quarter, Felix entered into an option agreement to purchase 70 per cent interest in the
Minerva Coal Project. The option fee was $0.5 million with the option term expiring on 31 May
2004.
Where the option is exercised, Felix will pay $1.25 million on settlement with a further $1.75 million
after twelve months. There is a provision for royalty payments on coal produced.
Minerva is a greenfields coal deposit located 40km south of Emerald in Queensland’s Bowen Basin.
The project is prospective for a 2.5 million tonne per annum open-cut mine producing unwashed
high-volatile, high-energy PCI and thermal coal for export.
Indicative total development costs of around $60 million equate to a capital intensity of $25 per
annual tonne of capacity, which is low by industry standards. Open-cut mine life is forecast at
thirteen years with potential to extend the life of the operation via underground mining.
The current intention is to follow-up the detailed assessments already undertaken by Felix and to
complete a final feasibility study as soon as practicable. Subject to the foregoing, initial
production at 500,000 tonnes per annum is contemplated before mid-2005.
Minerva is well suited to the skills and capabilities of Felix and complements the existing Yarrabee
operation. It is expected to significantly enhance the financial and operating profile of the
Company.
Felix continues to examine other acquisition opportunities across the resources sector in line with its
strategy of growth through acquisition.
OTHER EVENTS
The Company has initiated a process to sell unmarketable parcels of shares on its register.
Completion is scheduled for the end of July 2004 and will result in significant future savings for the
Company and will benefit those shareholders wishing to exit without incurring brokerage fees.

Issued Capital: As at 31 March 2004 there were 627,589,232 ordinary listed shares
on issue and 165,120,000 unlisted options.
Top Ten Shareholders:
Resource Management & Mining Pty Ltd 47.96%
National Nominees Ltd 7.35%
HSCB Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited 3.10%
BNY (OCS) Nominees Limited 2.35%
AMCI Holdings Australia Pty Ltd 2.08%
ANZ Nominees Limited 1.45%
Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 1.19%
Fitel Nominees Limited 0.96%
JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 0.93%
Insight Capital Management Pty Limited 0.88%
Proposed Reporting Dates:
June 2004 Quarterly Report - 19 July 2004
June 2004 Preliminary Final Report - 16 August 2004
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Apr 2 2004, 04:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Interview With:
Jon B. Parker
Managing Director
Dated March 23, 2004

Have a listen:

http://216.239.57.104/search?q=cache:KGQmu...&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

If that link does not work try this one, and click on cached under wallstreetreporter.com :

http://www.google.com/search%3fas_q=coal+m...ch=&safe=images

Failing that google advanced search; Felix Resources, coal, march.

Felix Resources Limited is a ‘new’ company born in October 2003 from merging a 33-year old Australian publicly listed resource company (AuIron Energy Limited) with the privately held Yarrabee Coal Company Pty Ltd. The Company’s business is operation, acquisition and development of mineral resources projects for coal and other minerals. Competitive advantage comes from: the quality of the growth platform; internal drivers for growth; and capability/experience of board and management in the resources sector. Felix has retained cash of 16 million Australian dollars; holds exploration tenements in Queensland, South Australia and Northern Ireland; and owns and operates the open-cut Yarrabee coal mine in Queensland. Yarrabee coal output has grown 20% each year since 1992, and will expand further to 1.7Mt/a by midyear. Current reserves are around 17.0 Mt. Yarrabee has a strong market position producing low volatile PCI coal for the steel industry - a strong growth market, and low volatile thermal coal – a niche market. Its products are sold into Asia, Europe and the Americas. The Yarrabee operation is characterised by simple process design, low capital intensity and an innovative business model. The model has potential for replication across small to mid sized open-cut resource projects to liberate significant value. Coal is an attractive sector of the resource industry - strong demand, tightness of supply, healthy price rises and price outlook. Within this sector, low volatile PCI is an attractive segment with the current supply/demand gap being projected to increase over the next several years. The market has limited awareness of Felix Resources Limited and for this reason Felix is undervalued compared to its peers of medium sized pure coal plays. This, coupled with its growth potential, suggests Felix warrants being on the radar screens of investors looking for growth opportunities. The word "Felix" is a Latin word meaning fortunate. The term "Australian Felix" was the description given by the first explorers to their sighting of the rolling plains on the western fall of the Great Dividing Range. In this context it means "bountiful land".
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 31 2004, 05:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Moving ahead....

Felix Resources Limited ACN 000 754 174 ABN 75 000 754 174
Postal: PO BOX 10470 Brisbane Adelaide Street QLD 4000 Delivery: 260 Queen Street Brisbane QLD 4000 Australia
T (61-7) 3229 4277 F (61-7) 3211 7328 E admin@felixresources.com.au W www.felixresources.com.au
31 March 2004
Australian Stock Exchange
Company Announcements
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
PURCHASE OF OPTION OVER THE MINERVA COAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Felix Resources Limited announced today that it has entered into an option to purchase New
Hope Corporation Limited’s 70 per cent share of the Minerva coal development project. Nissho
Iwai Australia Limited holds the other 30 per cent.
Minerva is a greenfields coal deposit located 40km south of Emerald in Queensland’s Bowen Basin.
The project is prospective for early development as a 2.5 million tonne per annum open-cut mine
supplying unwashed high-volatile, high-energy PCI and thermal coal to the export market.
Indicative total development costs of around $60m equate to a capital intensity of $25 per annual
tonne of capacity, which is low by industry standards. Open-cut mine life is forecast at thirteen
years with potential to expand production and extend the life of the operation via underground
mining.
The current intention is to follow-up the detailed assessments already undertaken by Felix and
complete a final feasibility study as soon as practicable. Subject to the foregoing, initial production
at 500,000 tonnes per annum is contemplated to commence before mid-2005.
“Minerva looks an attractive project, well-suited to the skills and capabilities of Felix Resources; it
would be a fine complement to the existing Yarrabee operation and significantly enhance the
financial and operating profile of this company”, said Jon Parker, Felix Resources Limited’s
Managing Director.
The purchase agreement calls for Felix Resources to pay $1.75m on settlement with a further
$1.75m after twelve months. There is a provision for royalty payments to New Hope Corporation
Limited, triggered when production commences.
Contact details for further information
Mr Jon Parker Mr Mark McCauley
Managing Director CFO & Company Secretary
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Mar 19 2004, 07:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

IN REPLY TO A POST BY rosskend, Wed 17/03/04 01:04pm

Onwards and upwards.......

Voyager Energy Limited News Release Thursday 18 March 2004 For further information, please contact: John Begg (Managing Director) Telephone: +61 8 9388 6722; Facsimile: +61 8 9388 6733 Website: www.voyagerenergy.com.au Email: info@voyagerenergy.com.au; ASX Code: VOY Completion of Purchase of Additional Perth Basin Assets and Capital Raising
Voyager Energy Limited is pleased to announce separate agreements with ARC Energy Limited and Wandoo Petroleum Pty Ltd (an affiliate of Mitsui & Co Ltd of Japan) to expand the company’s Perth Basin holdings. Voyager will purchase additional interests in the Cliff Head and Jingemia oil fields and two other prospective exploration licences in the Perth Basin plus farmout to Wandoo part of Voyager’s interests in offshore licences WA-325-P and WA-327-P.
In addition, Voyager has completed a placement of 10,833,333 shares at an issue price of 24 cents per share to raise $2.6 million and is expected to lodge a prospectus on Friday, 19 March 2004 for a 2 for 3 underwritten renounceable rights issue at an issue price of 20 cents per share with one free attaching option for every 2 new shares purchased to raise approximately $11.2 million.
Acquisitions
The separate agreements entered into with ARC and Wandoo are:
Arc Energy – Purchase Agreement
Voyager will make a cash payment to ARC of $3.23 million in consideration for purchase by Voyager of a 4.73% interest in EP 413 (Jingemia), and 10% interests in exploration permits TP/15 and EP 368. Voyager and ARC have agreed to formalise the purchase via a sale and purchase agreement based on industry standard terms and conditions which is to be in place within 21 days.
Wandoo Petroleum – Sale and Purchase Agreement and Farm-in Agreements
Voyager will make a cash payment to Wandoo for the 1.0% in WA-286-P that has been reduced by an amount representing a portion of past exploration costs incurred by Voyager in WA-325-P and WA-327-P. The cash payment will approximate $1.2 million. Voyager will also pay Wandoo $240,000 if, within 6 months of commencement of full production reserves from Cliff Head are calculated to exceed 28 million barrels.
Wandoo will contribute $450,000 on Voyager’s behalf towards the proposed WA-325-P and WA-327-P, 2004 exploration program and will be assigned 5.0% interests in each licence.
Wandoo will take assignment from Voyager of 5.0% in adjacent licence WA-226-P on the same terms as Voyager’s recent farmin to the Dana Petroleum interests.
At completion of the transactions, which are subject to completion of the capital raising and the usual joint venture and regulatory approvals, Voyager’s Perth Basin portfolio of 8 licences covering over 32,000 km2 will be as follows:
Page 2
Licence Name New Equity Position Transaction with WA-286-P (Cliff Head) 6.0% Wandoo EP 413 (Jingemia) 11.0% ARC TP/15 15.0% ARC EP 368 30.0% ARC WA-226-P 10.0% Dana/Wandoo WA-325-P 10.0% Wandoo
Wandoo WA-327-P 10.0% WA-349-P 50.0% -
The total consideration Voyager will outlay for the above purchases is $4.43 million.
Capital Raisings
Voyager intends to raise approximately $13.8 million by means of a placement and renounceable rights issue. The proceeds from the issue will be used to fund the purchases from Arc and Wandoo, the equity portion of Voyager’s interest in both the Cliff Head and Jingemia oil field developments and ongoing exploration program.
The placement of 10,833,000 shares at an issue price of 24 cents per share to raise $2.6 million has been made to high net worth and institutional clients of Hartleys Limited.
The proposed underwritten renounceable rights issue will be made on the basis of 2 new shares at 20 cents per share for every 3 existing shares held by shareholders. One free option will attach for every two, new shares purchased. The options have an exercise price of 25 cents and will expire on March 31,2006.
Hartleys Limited intends to act as underwriter of the Rights Issue in accordance with the Underwriting Agreement which will be set out in the prospectus.
The record date for determining shareholder entitlement to participate in the rights issue will be set at seven business days from lodgement of the Prospectus with ASIC.
At completion of the capital raising, Voyager will have up to 139,583,374 shares on issue and 27,916,675 million, listed 25 cent options.
Commenting on the transactions and capital raising, Voyager’s Managing Director John Begg said:
“These transactions and the placement and underwritten rights issue represent a significant milestone in the growth of Voyager Energy.
Our Perth Basin acreage covers a vast area with many undrilled structures identified. With these dealings we are once again showing our ability to both compete for sought after assets and, where appropriate work with larger companies to our mutual benefit.
We have substantially improved the security of our future cash flows by increasing equity in the Cliff Head and Jingemia oil production projects and at the same time balanced our exploration risk. We are particularly pleased about the leverage our shareholders will now have to our 2004 drilling program in which we are budgeting for at least 4 wells. The program is scheduled to commence onshore with the Jingemia-4 well in April, with the next well expected to be a test of the large Fiddich structure offshore.
Page 3 While the past 12 months for Voyager has been mainly about appraisal and development of our two oil fields (Cliff Head and Jingemia), we see this coming year as primarily about building cash flow, exploration drilling and growth.”
Voyager Limited Hartleys Limited
John Begg Richard Simpson
Managing Director Head of Corporate Finance
Phone: 08 9388 6722 Phone: 9268 2888
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 19 2004, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Is sanford the best online broker, they seem to have the best features??

regards,

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

chris
Posted on: Feb 12 2004, 10:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

I guess the questions are is CDV cash flow plus, and are they making a profit??
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Feb 4 2004, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

Bit of an over reaction, I think the revenue from this will be small as internet (WAP) users are low, even so there seems to be no additional outlay so it'll be bonus money.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code

chris
Posted on: Jan 30 2004, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 167

IN REPLY TO A POST BY Scarabeo7, Fri 30/01/04 11:24am   [READ POST]

I totally agree Scarabeo7. I sold out today, right or wrong, on the basis that the financing situation is starting to drag abit, I have the feeling that they're having difficulty (or there just playing games with STO) gaining favorable financing and they've been promising announcing what it will be for the last 10 months.

Although there has been good buying lately there has also been some large sell orders, maybe i'll buy back in if it falls back to the low 5's.

regards.
  Forum: By Share Code


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