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OEL, OTTO ENERGY LIMITED
Brierley
post Posted: Nov 24 2014, 02:06 PM
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Did anyone see the article in The West Australian that OEL are referring to today ?

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/Show...ediaSpeculation

 
Brierley
post Posted: Sep 22 2014, 01:53 PM
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In Reply To: mercury's post @ Sep 22 2014, 01:17 PM

Merc

Where you get 3.4c, I get 3.8c after allowing for current FX ~0.90

Risco has paid a USD10m deposit so worst case OEL get that if Risco pullout.

From a market valuation viewpoint, the other PI permits are worth zilch until they're faminee funded imo.

For SC55, if a farminee carries OEL for 33% of a USD50mil well, the transaction value to OEL is USD15m / AUD16.7m or 1.5cps
Obviously the risked value as any drilling nears would be greater.

The Tanzanian assets aren't been assigned any value either, however their JV partner SWE has a market cap of ~AUD24m so they must be worth something. Lets say ~$10m / 1cps to OEL. When the onshore drilling nears in 2015 it should rerate.

I'm happy to sit on this one for a while and see how things unfold.


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mercury
post Posted: Sep 22 2014, 01:17 PM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Sep 22 2014, 12:38 PM

If they were to pay out the 6cts capital return, they would retain 40 millin dollars minimum...this is equivalent to 3.4 cts per share plus any % of interests in other ventures. So at 9.5 cts minus 6 cts....= 3.5cts....that's a reasonable punt I believe. and that is my reasoning. I have bought back in.
I agree. Not much downside...except is the sale a done deal barring higher bid. This I don't know.
What would you place their interests in other JV and tenements at Brierley.?

merc

 
Brierley
post Posted: Sep 22 2014, 12:38 PM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Sep 19 2014, 12:07 PM

With Risco paying OEL the equivalent of 10cps for Galoc, there's now minimal downside to take a punt on the SC55 farmout outcome which should be known soon.

Todays preso states

QUOTE
Currently negotiating with two potential farminees to partner for SC55 drilling campaign


There's also a chance of a counterbid for Galoc from BCP, who are in the process of taking over NDO (Galoc JV partner).

 
Brierley
post Posted: Sep 19 2014, 12:07 PM
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Now in trading halt, but no details yet

QUOTE
The reason for the trading halt is to allow the company to prepare an announcement for release to the ASX concerning a major transaction


http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/Show...000/TradingHalt

 
Brierley
post Posted: Jul 9 2014, 11:06 AM
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In Reply To: mercury's post @ Jul 9 2014, 08:11 AM

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despite the cash rolling in, the company has languished share-price wise. This I am confused about.
Is it because people do not trust management?

comments?
thanks
merc


Management haven't been too flash over the years have they. The revolving door of CEO's .....
Yet to see how the current guy performs.

As for the sp languishing, I reckon the market has it priced ok based on 2P developed reserves and cash, worth around 9cps imo

If you're dubious about the SC55 farmout coming off, you can always buy in after any deal is signed off and a rig is booked.

I've reduced this week to lock in some profits and reduce downside exposure if the farmout campaign fails.
Similar strategy to sell before spud......

 

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mercury
post Posted: Jul 9 2014, 08:11 AM
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despite the cash rolling in, the company has languished share-price wise. This I am confused about.
Is it because people do not trust management?

comments?
thanks
merc

 
Brierley
post Posted: Jul 8 2014, 11:46 AM
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In Reply To: stezz's post @ Jul 8 2014, 11:38 AM

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The current deadline for drilling is 23 December this year. Do you see that being extended?


Stezz
When I asked the company about that, I was told everything would have to fall in place perfectly for a spud to occur by year end.
The main drag is approvals. There's around 100 different approvals required apparently.


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stezz
post Posted: Jul 8 2014, 11:38 AM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Jul 8 2014, 11:27 AM

Brierly,

Yes, it's nice to be trading back in the double digits again.
I think there is a good chance of a farmout on reasonable terms to Otto given the USD24.5m? payable by BHP towards the drill.
The qtrly should be a nice a read too with debt being paid off and Galoc currently generating around 2c / share each quarter in cash flow by my calcs. More upside potential with Galoc north to be decided this year also?

The current deadline for drilling is 23 December this year. Do you see that being extended?

S

 
Brierley
post Posted: Jul 8 2014, 11:27 AM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Jun 8 2014, 04:05 PM

QUOTE
All that said, nothing's guaranteed. Its still a punt whether or not they successfully farm it out.
We'll know soon.


Some upward movement on decent volume the last few days
June quarterly should be good, following the recently announced full repayment of the Galoc Debt facility.

News/update of the SC55 farmout is the big one, and that's expected in July.
If they've failed to attract any suitors, I estimate a drop in the sp to ~8-8.5c.
Near term upside on a successful farmout will depend on the terms of any deal, and spud timing. 1H 2015 would be my guess for any spud.

 
 


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