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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
royco
post Posted: Feb 10 2009, 08:34 AM
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My answers are:

YES
YES
NOT



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royco
post Posted: Feb 10 2009, 08:31 AM
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hi all, maybe we could do a little poll to help understand market potential and sp dynamics.
If we have enough of the sharescene enthusiasts/early adopters answering, this result could also be given to cuv management.
I dont mind to make the counts and prepare a result, but it is open to everyone who can read/ count to do it.

What about these questions:

1) If available, would you consider using afamelanotide either for cosmetic or purely medical reasons?
Answers:
YES/NO

2) Do you know other people that would consider using afamelanotide either for cosmetic or purely medical reasons?
Answers:
YES/NO

3) Are you planning to buy or sell shares in the coming month or do you not expect to trade any?
Answers:
BUY/SELL/NOT



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panguna
post Posted: Feb 10 2009, 07:06 AM
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In Reply To: imprezawrx's post @ Feb 10 2009, 12:14 AM

Perhaps this extract from an ABN AMRO 2008 report might help:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

�� Royalty assumptions – For its PMLE opportunity, we forecast CUV will decide to enter into

an agreement with a larger pharmaceutical partner to carry out marketing and distribution. We

expect CUV to agree to a royalty from sales of the finished product, including an upfront

payment and, on that basis, assume CUV will receive a 10% royalty rate on sales of

afamelanotide. This is in line with royalty rates that, from our research, have been negotiated

recently between biotech companies and global pharmaceutical companies. For its EPP

opportunity, we believe initially CUV is likely to sell is product directly to patients, as the

market opportunity is much smaller.

�� CUV market share – Our analysis suggests CUV is likely to be the first player in this market

for some time. Hence, we assume CUV’s market share will be high initially, at 50% of the

available market. .

Cheers.




Said 'Thanks' for this post: royco  KRD  
 
rabbitrun
post Posted: Feb 10 2009, 12:29 AM
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In Reply To: imprezawrx's post @ Feb 10 2009, 12:14 AM

From the bit of research I've done, a 50% royalty is unprecedented. That would be some leverage Clinuvel is wielding if they sit down and make that deal...

 
imprezawrx
post Posted: Feb 10 2009, 12:14 AM
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In Reply To: KRD's post @ Feb 9 2009, 11:42 PM

no clinuvel made it quiet clear they were looking at a 50% deal... im just trying to remember when it was said and who said it

 
KRD
post Posted: Feb 9 2009, 11:42 PM
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In Reply To: imprezawrx's post @ Feb 9 2009, 10:05 AM

Not clear where the 50% royalty comes from that you've noted. Some of the earlier analyst reports such as RRS and biotech related business articles in the main stream press have referenced the 10-20% figure. The value is very dependent on what stage of development and testing the company is in when an agreement is reached. Royalties above 20% would be pretty outstanding and more than welcome.

 

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imprezawrx
post Posted: Feb 9 2009, 10:05 AM
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In Reply To: KRD's post @ Feb 9 2009, 09:49 AM

Clinuvel quoted a figure around 50% in royalties

 
KRD
post Posted: Feb 9 2009, 09:49 AM
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In Reply To: motegi's post @ Feb 9 2009, 09:34 AM

Motegi:

CUV's royalty in a partnership agreement should be 10% on the very low side to the upper teens. The more leverage CUV has the better the chance for CUV to negotiate with multiple pharmas. Leverage meaning cash in the bank to continue operating with one or more approvals in hand. Seems likely given Wolgen's recent statements about cash reserves and projected burn rate.

KRD

 
motegi
post Posted: Feb 9 2009, 09:34 AM
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I don't know where I got the 380m sh from but most likely due to being too lazy to check the exact number..haha
But nevertheless, you do understand the angle that I am trying to put forward...

I see that everyone sees this as a drug that "should" be a blockbuster and how CUV will take over the world etc, I think it follows the same notion that one's baby are never ugly...WE think that this drug be the best thing since slice bread but I wonder if anyone has had chats to the friends about this drug? I've had differing opinions when talking to some of my friends...What about the wider community...not just the people who wants a tan, but maybe from people who'd prolly not use the drug? what do they think about it? I say this cos to me, they are the most likely potential investors in this company. From a person who would not consider using such a drug to achieve a tan, would they put money in something they don't believe in (use of the drug anyway)?

KRD, with the $1b in sales you sugguest, what percentage do you think we (CUV) will get? Will our margin be in the 10% mark after everybody takes their cut?

 
royco
post Posted: Feb 9 2009, 08:19 AM
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From belgian financial newspaper "Financieel Economische Tijd" this Saturday:
"Carl Icahn puts focus on Biotech."
This Tycoon is planning to take controle of Biogen and Amylin, two biotech companies in the US.
He sees biotech as the market of the future, especially those having strong research capacities.

Good times are yet to come...will be interesting to see what happens if the spotlight is on our beloved Clinuvel!



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