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SLX, SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED
Sinner
post Posted: May 31 2006, 10:18 AM
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QUOTE (k9_ @ Tuesday 30/05/06 07:03pm)

In the Australian last week (23/5) had MG quoted as saying "We would not be surprised if GE captured a third or even up to a half of the market in the first five to ten years of deployment". It is estimated to take 5 years to prove the technology (test loop, lead cascade).

Re Translucent, I briefly touched on it in the chat with mgt the other week. There will be an update before year's end (I assume financial year). Apparently some "interesting stuff" has happened, but that could mean anything, so I won't speculate.

Cheers!

 
gulf
post Posted: May 31 2006, 09:36 AM
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The immediate action in the SLX share price should result from progress in Translucent and Fibrebyte.Going back to the company release of the 15/3/06 it was stated that the" Board remains confident that the Company's technologies will begin to generate commercial outcomes before cash reserves become an issue " They also stated that Translucent launches in the second half of the year,well we are nearly there!
The U deal is done,there is a lot of other action within Silex.

 
JustinS007
post Posted: May 31 2006, 08:50 AM
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In reply to: k9_ on Tuesday 30/05/06 09:03pm

Well that's pretty poor then. I think they should strive for the 10 year option! cool.gif

Seriously though, thanks for pointing that out. Any chance of posting a link to the article?

J.

 
k9_
post Posted: May 30 2006, 09:03 PM
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In reply to: JustinS007 on Tuesday 30/05/06 04:23pm

Justin,

In the smh article on the weekend GW stated that he hoped that GE would have 30% of the U market in 20 years not the 10 you are assuming.

 
saf
post Posted: May 30 2006, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE (david_j_c @ Tuesday 30/05/06 04:27pm)

Translucent is all about price. Photonic/Electronic integrated circuits are all about cutting costs of fibre deployment. This aids bandwith which is where the real demand is. In terms of faster PC's we don't need them because we haven't got them. If we had them we'd use them. This may sound circular, but trust me companies like Microsoft have their whole business models built around rolling out bigger and better software.

As an aside, I think the computer game industry now rivals Hollywood - or something like that.

Cheers
saf

 
david_j_c
post Posted: May 30 2006, 04:27 PM
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In reply to: JustinS007 on Tuesday 30/05/06 04:16pm

Justin,

I'm not sure we need Moore's Law any more. Haven't we reached performance that most people are satisfied with? (But I don't play computer games, so maybe I'm missing something; but I do Google Earth). OK reduced heating might be marginally significant (but Newton's Law of Cooling, not Moore's) for other reasons, but only if the technology is cheap. It seems to me that price not performance is the current issue. Anything from Translucent to help on price?

David

 


saf
post Posted: May 30 2006, 04:23 PM
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In reply to: JustinS007 on Tuesday 30/05/06 04:16pm

Justin,

Enriched silicon has nothing to do with Translucent. That is pure silex technology and relates to their partnership with SUMCO. Translucent, as far SOI and high-k go, is about increasing electron mobility and hence speed. Reduced heat is probably a consequence of this though.

Cheers
saf

 
JustinS007
post Posted: May 30 2006, 04:23 PM
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In reply to: saf on Tuesday 30/05/06 04:10pm

Hi saf. I agree with all you say in relation to putting a value on the share and your comments about GE's appetite for risk.

I have not been nearly as sophisticated as you in my calculations, however I am assuming that GE captures 30% of the market within 10 years, and am assuming that the technology will work in a full sized plant. I give this a probability of 50% based on what we have been told already and considering that SLX have developed a fully functional scaled plant there is no reason for it to fail unless we are being fed a line. This is not how the company operates.

No figure I come up with unless I start to use ridiculous numbers comes out below a current $4 value for U alone.

Caveat emptor however as fluctuations will no doubt catch those going for a short term ride at just the wrong moment.

J.

 
saf
post Posted: May 30 2006, 04:19 PM
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In reply to: david_j_c on Tuesday 30/05/06 04:09pm

I can't keep up with all these posts.

Don't think last mile and copper replacement with Translucent. The optical gain part is for the core network where it replaces expensive lasers and optical/electrical converters with cheap silicon semiconductors. The increasing penetration of broadband in the last mile (ADSL2+ and cable) is placing increasing pressure on the core network and we are now seeing the beginning of next telco capex upgrade cycle (following the overcapacity of the tech boom).

The silicon-on-insulator and high-k dielectrics, which are happening now will make your PC go faster. You may have noticed there has been a new faster Pentium chip for about 4 years.

I agree competition is the real issue here. There is a lot of money and research going into the area and I'm not on top of all of it. I don't think anyone is, which is why a commercial partnership which validates the technology and provides some cashflow visibility should be a huge event for the stock.

Cheers
saf

 
JustinS007
post Posted: May 30 2006, 04:16 PM
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In reply to: david_j_c on Tuesday 30/05/06 04:09pm

Hi David,

You might need to catch up with the Moore's Law posts of some time ago in relation to using enriched wafers for semiconductors. This is more where the real Translucent value exists into the future in my opinion. The current silicon material used contains significant impurities that lead to heat during operation hence capability is limited. The market is seriously constrained and can only be improved through new technology - rather than looking at ways of improving heat dissipation around current technology.

Other Translucent products exciting too, but only for the weekend grog money so to speak.

J.

 
 


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