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LITHIUM, LITHIUM DISCUSSION
nipper
post Posted: Yesterday, 10:32 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Yesterday, 09:19 AM

make that EUR up 70%, LIT and VUL up 30%+, and LPD, WKT, INF, INR and JRL in double figures.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:19 AM
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Sector is hot. Five on watchlist up > 10% with LIT and EUR more than 30. LPD and JRL pushing ahead, VUL nearing $10, must be nearing exhaustion
(All the minnows)




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 07:13 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jan 16 2021, 03:28 PM

and, I think you are being disrespectful to Mr Adams; he made his money in advertising. Much loved by the ABC, he was a man ahead of his time, predating Virtue Signalling by a generation.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 05:12 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jan 16 2021, 03:28 PM

The beauty of having the B team given more prominence than their skillset would suggest they can handle is that the agendas are transparent.





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 03:28 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 14 2020, 02:32 PM

Ahh, good old Joe.

Some years back, I happened upon some radio host on ABC National who conducted several interviews where clearly he was not listening to what the interviewees were actually saying but merely delivering a monologue with gaps. I listened for some time but although the radio host identified the show - apparently it was a rerun of "Late Night Live" - a number of times at no point did he identify himself, as if he was so important and well known that that courtesy was not necessary. Of course I later found out that the radio host was a bloke called Phillip Adams who at one point in his life was a leading player in the entertainment sector. But as they say in footy, everyone is only as good as their next game, and Mr Adams' next game was as a radio host.


Joe Lowry reminds me very much of Phillip Adams. He made his name as an executive in a major lithium company. I see that on the front page of his site he now describes himself as "one of the world's leading lithium market experts" and, like Mr Adams, even thinks it unnecessary to identify himself (he does elsewhere on the site but not on the front cover).


Good old Joe has been a constant critic of Orocobre over the years. Once again he dismisses the Naraha lithium hydroxide plant in Japan that Orocobre is involved in but fails to mention that this operation also involves a jv between Toyota and Panasonic and that it is the Japanese that have designed and will run the facility.

In my experience good old Joe is fairly unique amongst the world's leading commodity market experts in that he seems to have 20:20 clairvoyancy and can name right down to the company which will be the winners and the losers in some future time. Such a unique talent ... or maybe he is just full of himself.

(but thanks for posting that, nip, I know that lithium sector, particularly the hard rockers in WA, has come to life in recent months but I have not been actively following the action).



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 09:31 AM
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good old BBC. so easy to critque, so hard to actually provide a pathway
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54900418

Protecting fragile ecosystems from lithium mining

QUOTE
.. Producers have scrambled to raise production, but critics say traditional production techniques are damaging to the environment.
Conventional ore mining of hard rock deposits, predominantly in countries like Australia and China, has been criticised for the amount of fossil fuels used in the processing of the metal. ...

The method used in the so-called lithium triangle countries of Bolivia, Argentina and Chile is also under scrutiny. The salt flats, or salars, of that region hold more than 75% of lithium deposits and are likely to be the source of much of the future supply. Brine is pumped from beneath the salt flats into vast evaporation pools, a process that leaves behind lithium carbonate....


and then the story morphs into some rambling hopeful membrane extraction process. Just sounds like another press release



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Oct 14 2020, 02:32 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 14 2020, 12:37 PM

and furthermore, in world of the Lithium chemicals (not Lithium as a commodity)

https://www.globallithium.net/articles

My top nine assumptions (for better or worse) over the next five years are:

1) WA Spodumene oversupply moves to tightness then short supply within 12 to 18 months moving the right hand side of the lithium chemical cost curve up ~ 30%. Before the end of 2022, China spot pricing for battery quality lithium carbonate and hydroxide will exceed contract pricing in Korean and Japan which will increase more slowly just as it did in 2016 to 2018 returning to the mid teens. Delayed investments in chemical capacity will create a great pricing environment for all lithium chemical producers that could last beyond 2027 depending on how much longer investment is delayed.

2) Conversion capacity in Europe is starting up by 2024 with feedstock from Australia giving companies like Pilbara and Altura more partnership options. Wesfarmers and SQM breakup leaving Wesfarmers free to fully leverage their chemical skills at Mt. Holland and bringing joy to those longing for a Lithium Valley in WA. Wodgina starts back up after it becomes obvious the capacity is needed.

3) The Atacama struggles to reach 200K MT of production with less than 75% being battery quality, a far cry from the 400K MT forecast just a few years ago.

4) In Argentina, Minera Exar produces from Cauchari and begins phase II becoming Argentina's top producer, Livent finally expands but doesn't exceed 25K MT LCE until 2024. Orocobre proves building a hydroxide plant in Japan wasn't a great idea and struggles to meet tight specifications. Galaxy and POSCO remain also rans with production of less than 10K combined by 2025.

5) Lithium America Thacker Pass validates the US as a significant lithium producer by mid-decade and because the US government did not allow Ganfeng to invest in Thacker Pass, LAC is viewed as a standalone lithium power and the newest major. Standard Lithium & Lanxess validate special situation DLE in Arkansas. The word lilac continues to symbolize purity, innocence, happiness, tranquility, love and passion depending on the color but has no lasting meaning in the lithium space.

6) In 2025 lithium carbonate still provides at least 55% of the LCEs going into battery.

7) In 2025, Quebec is still touted for great potential but has zero lithium chemical production. Pallinghurst recovers from the embarrassment of their 2020 folly of throwing more money at Nemaska.

8) By 2022, at least two large multinational companies not currently involved in lithium make significant investments enabling the industry to catch up with demand by 2030.

9) The lithium assets of Albemarle change hands and the new entity becomes the clear global #1 lithium company edging out my friends at Ganfeng who still dominate China with their "ecosystem" but struggle to transplant their culture globally.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 14 2020, 12:37 PM
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the Joe Lowry podcasts on Lithium are interesting. Folksy, long, sometimes unfocused, but interesting


https://www.globallithium.net/podcast

most of the podcasts are with market participants, and the common themes seem to be around
... the current state of the lithium market and ponder when the the current oversupply situation will turn to shortage.
... thoughts on the ability of the industry to respond to the anticipated steep growth in lithium demand in the coming decade and the opportunities a global lithium battery build out will offer.
.... that a tight lithium chemicals market and price spike are coming based on the lack of investment in new hard rock and brine capacity in recent years....



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 4 2020, 04:45 PM
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In their report Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation, the scientists from the University of Augsburg in German and Lappeenranta Lahti University of Technology in Finland are quite clear about the fundamental importance of lithium. Liithium is critical to achieve a sustainable energy transition, the report concluded.

Lithium battery demand is expected to be the main cause of a supply deficit.

In 2016, there were about one billion light duty vehicles on the world's roads .... but by 2050 that figure is expected to be about 3.05 billion.

Then there is the trend to electric vehicles (EVs). The German and Finnish research team estimates by 2025 14% of all light vehicles in the world will be EVs. By 2030, that it predicted to have grown to somewhere between 40% and 50%. Yet by 2050, every light vehicle on the world's road is expected to be powered by batteries. That, the study concludes, is going to place huge strain on lithium supply.

Meanwhile, lithium ion batteries achieved a compound annual growth rate of 24% between 2015 and 2018.

Critically, automotive applications for those batteries in 2015 made up 43% of demand; yet by 2018 hybrid and electric cars were accounting for 70% of all lithium ion batteries coming on the market.

Will there be enough mines?
The German and Finnish researchers outlined just how long it takes to get new lithium mines into business. In the build up phase, so called greenfield projects must go through resource discovery, several stages of feasibility studies, facility construction and production start up. This usually takes one to two decades, the report noted.

And brine projects have their own issues. Relying on solar irradiation, the evaporation process is not constant throughout the year, the report explained.

Another problem highlighted in the report is that no one knows how much lithium is left on earth. The US Geological Survey estimates about 80 million tonnes but the authors of the report dismiss that as unrealistically high; other scenarios assume remaining stock is 41Mt, 56Mt or 73Mt.

https://smallcaps.com.au/lithium-sector-spr...y-crunch-nears/

(So, what was Musk on about?)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 01:29 PM
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Shares in Australian lithium producers have taken a hit after the Tesla Battery Day event tested investor conviction in the commodity class and among companies with exposure to the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.

Tesla founder Elon Musk and co-presenter and engineering boss Drew Baglino offered fans a series of materials, process and product targets,
QUOTE
It is important to note that there is a massive amount of lithium on earth. Lithium is not like oil .... there is a massive amount of it pretty much everywhere, Musk said, explaining that all US vehicles could be replaced with EVs using lithium sourced in America alone.

Mr Baglino added: There really is enough lithium in Nevada alone to electrify the entire US fleet.

Investors responded by offloading shares in Australian lithium producers. That followed a 7 per cent fall for Tesla shares in after hours trading.

Galaxy Resources GXY plunged 11.6 per cent to $1.29; the following day saw them touch $1.15

Orocobre ORE shares dropped 6.5 per cent and continued to slide another 2% on Thursday.

Pilbara Minerals PLS gave up 6.8 per cent and a further 4% the next day.

Novonix NVX fell sharply after reported speculation that it may be revealed as a technology provider to Tesla failed to materialise. Its shares closed on the Wed some 11.6 per cent lower at $1.29, after erratic and speculative swings when it had surged to $2.40 at open. Come Thursday it went below $1.20.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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