Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

48 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Picking the Bank\'s Bottom
veeone
post Posted: Dec 23 2009, 11:19 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,058
Thanks: 1115


In Reply To: db76's post @ Dec 23 2009, 11:03 AM

QUOTE
maybe Australia Post could be a backdoor way to get a new "people's" bank again


Db probably would not be a bad idea. They do banking for a few of the other already so why not offer a full service.
The way mails keep dropping i'm sure another feather in their cap would not go astray.
Few others have done that around the world.This was in the paper today regarding AP and its new managing director.


A BANKER is about to become the nation's top postie. After running banks from Wall Street to Australia and most recently the Middle East, Ahmed Fahour has set his sights on the stamps and parcels business.
But that doesn't mean the chief executive of Australia Post is about to apply for a banking licence when he takes charge in February.
Taking on the big four banks was not on his priority list, Mr Fahour told BusinessDay.

Maybe not a priority Db but may not be totally ruled out i'm wondering......They have a great infastructure in place!! V1


http
://www.smh.com.au/business/banker-faho...1222-lbu4.html

Also
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf...KK?OpenDocument




 
db76
post Posted: Dec 23 2009, 11:03 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,661
Thanks: 99


this has been a dead forum since the banks market cap recovered - complacency or wisdom ?

but as some have pointed out our best banks have huge exposure to real estate - so let us hope that RE never goes down
in this great country dependent upon china for the icing on its cake

anyway, maybe Australia Post could be a backdoor way to get a new "people's" bank again

AustPost



--------------------
the Market is usually Right

I want to say what I think but I shouldn't
 
db76
post Posted: Oct 30 2009, 12:52 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,661
Thanks: 99


Australian banks - the world's best, exposed to the world's safest and best real estate market , one that only goes Up

why would Mr Smith of ANZ be worried by some regulation - it doesnt matter what happens the Govt will always look after him

a good part of the problem - as to why the banks took big risks and still do

he doesn't realise that the Govt bank guarantee has a price to be paid

WeDontNeedFixing

QUOTE
But Mr Smith told analysts in a conference call yesterday that people were quick to jump on the regulatory bandwagon after a crisis. He pointed to a proposal emerging from the Basel Committee, the global standard-setting body for banking regulation, for a leverage ratio to put a floor under the build-up of leverage in the financial system.

While such an initiative might be appropriate for a more leveraged operation, for example UBS, Mr Smith said, a commercial lender like ANZ had a "totally different make-up" and a different portfolio of businesses.

"I think there is a real danger of fixing something that's not broken," he said. "We have to say our piece on this; there's not one size that fits all."

The Basel Committee, apart from looking at a leverage ratio, is also examining the introduction of capital buffers that can be drawn down in periods of stress, strengthening the quality of bank capital, and the development of stronger liquidity buffers.








--------------------
the Market is usually Right

I want to say what I think but I shouldn't
 
veeone
post Posted: Oct 10 2009, 02:26 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,058
Thanks: 1115


It had to happen sooner or later, but a clearly confident Reserve Bank believes that now is the time to be removing ‘emergency’ rate settings. The emergency is over, and now a more appropriate level of interest rates needs to be put in place.

How much pain will a 25 basis point hike cause for borrowers? Actually, not a lot. The Commonwealth Bank estimates that more than 90% of its home loan customers are ahead in their loan repayments. That is, when interest rates were cut, most customers elected to maintain existing repayments. The main burden of the rate hike will hit those who have purchased or built homes relatively recently. And the higher loan repayments will certainly be factored in by budding home buyers in coming months.

It’s also important to note that many businesses have already been paying higher interest rates for some time – the Reserve Bank move is merely validating pricing on financing markets. Since August, 90-day bank bill rates have averaged 3.34%, more than 30 basis points higher than the prevailing cash rate.

But while higher interest rates represent bad news for some, it means good news for savers. For those relying on earnings from bank deposits and dividends, the past year has been a year to forget. But now interest rates are back on the rise to more ‘normal’ levels. And investors should also expect companies to restore or lift dividends over the coming year.

The $64 million question is how quickly will rates rise from here? At the start of the last rate hike cycle in 2002, the Reserve Bank made two quick-fire rate hikes before retiring to the sidelines. But at that time the low point for rates was 4.25% – much closer to the ‘normal’ or neutral zone around 5%. In the past the Reserve Bank has lifted rates a few times before resting to gauge the impact. Another rate hike on Melbourne Cup day is a safe bet and over the next year cash rates will likely lift to around 4.5%. Commsec Market Bulletin.

[/font][font="Arial"]
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to lift rates in November. Then we expect the Reserve Bank to pause until the New Year, before lifting rates in February and March. At least four further rate hikes are expected from May. Overall, we expect the cash rate to be around 4.5–5% in 12 months’ time. While the Reserve Bank has indicated in the past that a ‘normal’ or neutral cash rate is around 5.25%, an Australian dollar trading close to parity with the greenback suggests that the Reserve Bank will be aiming for a lower target.



 
veeone
post Posted: Oct 8 2009, 12:43 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,058
Thanks: 1115


WILL Australia also be the first country to see bank-share buybacks after the RBA set the trend on official interest rate hikes?
Credit Suisse bank analyst James Ellis is suggesting capital management opportunities lie ahead.
At the outset, it must be said that Ellis is making a brave call and the chances of him being proved correct in the next 12 months are slim to zero.
To this, Ellis will rightly point to the many caveats in his report, starting with the title, “Opportunity or Mirage”.
The Big Four banks are in an extraordinarily good position and even though ANZ is a relative basket on home mortgages, it wasted little time in hiking rates this morning after the RBA move on Tuesday.
Today’s stronger than expected employment report also suggests there will be plenty more interest rate hikes to come.
Ellis argues that surplus tier one capital among the big four banks will hit $27 billion by 2011 and, given limited merger and acquisition opportunities, subdued loan growth and relatively high dividend payout ratios, he has $15bn in share buybacks in his estimates.
Right now, ANZ leads the pack with a 9.2 per cent tier one ratio, followed by NAB and CBA at 8.5 per cent and Westpac at 8.1 per cent.
Today’s news from Westpac confirming a $753 million tax hit from New Zealand underlined the point because, depending on how it accounts for the tax bill, it will probably knock 25 basis points from its tier one ratio, bringing it down to the 8.1 per cent level cited. Now, Australian banks are better placed and better regulated than their offshore peers, but CLSA’s Brian Johnson argues that 9.5 per cent will be the benchmark tier one capital ratio, which means ANZ is the only one that’s close.
APRA is pushing banks into government securities as part of their liquid assets, and even though the world looks brighter, not everyone is tipping a snafu free 2010.
NAB, for starters, is sitting on a recognised $3.9 billion loss on an investment product, which should fall given lower credit market rates, but the conduit position highlights the dangers.
All of which suggests banks will be maximum conservative and not yet ready to champion their wares and return as equity leaders quite yet.
Ellis was flagging those days as coming sooner rather than latter.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/busin...0-36418,00.html



 
Twobees
post Posted: Oct 1 2009, 10:48 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,165
Thanks: 160


Our banks are over-valued - Dan Denning - News - Business Spectator



"Aussie banks have booked most of their losses so far on overseas investments related to the implosion in US housing and housing related debt securities. But the future solvency of the banks is dependent on the value of their local loan portfolios. And that brings it down to whether commercial real estate prices and residential housing prices in Australia are really going to escape global deleveraging without declines of at least 20 per cent.

My view is that they can't. If the commercial real estate and housing markets experience large falls, the Aussie banks will be in big trouble, just like banks in Europe and America were when faced with assets that suddenly plummeted in value. In fact, these falling asset values are still taking a hacksaw to the equity of smaller regional banks in the US."

 


db76
post Posted: Sep 16 2009, 12:30 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,661
Thanks: 99


as our banks have shown the world that they are paragons why should we worry anymore - we are the best and we also have the world's best government making the GFC look like a picnic

the bankers still rule the roost ---- TooMighty

QUOTE
Perhaps it’s as Henry Ford said many decades ago, “It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did I believe there would a revolution tomorrow




--------------------
the Market is usually Right

I want to say what I think but I shouldn't
 
balance
post Posted: Sep 3 2009, 08:04 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,643
Thanks: 625


In Reply To: Mark M's post @ Sep 2 2009, 10:29 PM

opportunity knocks I would think Mark.
I do look long term for this kind of event and will wear short term losses in decent yield stocks.



--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.
 
Mark M
post Posted: Sep 2 2009, 10:29 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 467
Thanks: 9


In Reply To: balance's post @ Sep 2 2009, 09:41 PM

Yes Balance,
I agree that Australian banks have weathered the storm better than most international banks, but so did the Oz economy. Yet our markets still got smashed following the global trend during the last international routing. Lets wait and see what happens.....

MM

 
balance
post Posted: Sep 2 2009, 09:41 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,643
Thanks: 625


In Reply To: Mark M's post @ Sep 2 2009, 07:13 AM

Not me mark.You cant know the left field events that will do the big damage.Will be a down month or 2 I think but nothing like what we saw a while back.Black swans aside that is.

Ready to throw a few more dollars at them if and when.

anyway, from the news wires...

Analysts see the potential for domestic banks to buy back shares given their capital positions are improving due to slowing bad and doubtful debts. Credit Suisse estimates banks could buy back A$16 billion of capital over fiscal 2010. That comes after the big four - National Australia Bank (NAB.AU), Westpac (WBC.AU), Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) and ANZ (ANZ.AU) - have raised substantial capital through equity placements over the past year. The firms have effectively weathered what's being considered the worst of the downturn, meaning they are in a stronger position going forward. UBS says share buybacks will start taking place across the Australian corporate market after January, starting with the banks.



--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.
 
 


48 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING