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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Today, 10:25 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20210128-p56xek

The strategy is simple enough. Pick a cheap, unloved stock - preferably one that has been heavily shorted by hedge funds - with a low market capitalisation and whose share price can be measured in pennies. Then pile in, using social media as a bullhorn to steer concentrated buying by a herd of other like-minded small investors to drive the price higher, ideally triggering a short squeeze.

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is that new?? ahh , they use social media now!! cool.gif

this thingy will end in tears for a lot of new traders i reckon!! been there , done before!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 25 2021, 08:12 AM
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Volatility this week may come down to the outlook for the coronavirus

In a ceremonial event, Joe Biden was sworn in as President of the United States on Wednesday, and the day went off without a glitch. Immediately, he must deal with the problem that his processor couldn’t get a grip on – controlling the coronavirus and getting the vaccines distributed. Many European countries are trying to wrap their arms around the new UK variant which is spreading across nations. Lockdowns and restrictions have begun to show up in economic data, and the next few weeks will be critical for Q1. The FOMC will get its turn in the spotlight on Wednesday. With more fiscal stimulus on the way, it may be a non-event. Earnings season continues with heavy hitters Microsoft, Tesla and Apple hitting the tape. We’ll also get month end data, including the US Advanced Q4 GDP.

For more on Joe Biden’s presidency, click here

Over 420,000 people have died in the US alone from coronavirus related cases. That is equivalent to 1,268 deaths per 1 million people. In Europe, countries such as Belgium, Slovenia, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Sweden, and Switzerland, among others, are seeing similar death rates (worldometers.info/coronavirus). Variants have been found in the UK, South Africa, and Brazil which are said to be less lethal but more contagious. However, on Friday Boris Johnson said the UK variant may be more lethal than first anticipated. More and more countries are either being put into lockdown or having their lockdowns extended into the spring. The Summer Olympics in Tokyo, already postponed from last year, may have to be canceled. Many countries have either ordered vaccines or are already rolling them out. Joe Biden has proposed “1,000,000 vaccines a day for 100 days.” Two questions that traders will be looking for answers to this week are:

Can the vaccine rollout be done at a fast-enough pace without prolonging negative effects of the virus on the economy?
How effective are the vaccines against the new variant of the coronavirus?
What does all this mean for the world economy? Most likely it means continued stimulus. Although central banks were on hold last week, they confirmed that their outlook depends on the path of the virus and if lockdowns are lifted in Q1. However, the BOJ downgraded near term forecasts. Christine Lagarde of the ECB said they have many tools at their disposal still (although she didn’t commit to which ones they would use). The FOMC is likely to follow their central bank cohorts this week, leaving interest rates and QE unchanged. With newly sworn-in President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan on the floor of Congress, Powell and friends are likely to remain in “wait and see” mode. However, there is a likelihood that once the plan makes its way through Congress, it will be less than proposed (perhaps 2/3). Powell should remain upbeat, however he too will likely preference his remarks with “provided vaccines are distributed and things done get worse.”

Earnings season continues this week with some heavy hitters, including Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla. Traders will be watching forecasts. What are these companies expecting in future quarters based on the virus? Other major earnings releases this week are as follows: MMM, AXP, GE, LMT, VZ, SBUX, MSFT, TXN, JNJ, AAPL, T, BA, FB, TSLA, MA, V, CAT

Worse than expected PMI data from Japan and Europe showed that the coronavirus is beginning to take a toll on Q1 economic data. End of month economic data will be released this week. Most of it is second tier, however standouts will be UK and German employment data, as well as, the Advanced look at the US Q4 GDP. Other economic data highlights are as follows:
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Monday

Germany: Ifo Business Climate (JAN)
Tuesday

UK: Claimant Count Change (DEC)
US: CB Consumer Confidence (JAN)
Wednesday

Australia: NAB Business Confidence (DEC)
Australia: Inflation Rate (Q4)
Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB)
US: Durable Goods (DEC)
US: Fed Interest Rate Decision
Crude Inventories
Thursday

New Zealand: Trade Balance (DEC)
Japan: Retail Sales (DEC)
EU: Consumer Sentiment Final (JAN)
EU: Economic Sentiment (JAN)
Germany: Inflation Rate (JAN)
Canada: Building Permits (DEC)
US: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending January 23rd)
US: GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q4)
US: New Home Sales (DEC)
Friday

New Zealand: Consumer Confidence (JAN)
Japan: Unemployment Rate (DEC)
Japan: Tokyo CPI (JAN)
Japan: Industrial Production Prel (DEC)
Japan: BOJ Summary of Opinions
Australia: PPI (Q4)
Japan: Consumer Confidence (DEC)
UK: Nationwide Housing Prices (JAN)
Germany: Unemployment Change (JAN)
Canada: GDP (NOV)
Canada: PPI Final (DEC)
US: Personal Spending (DEC)
US: Personal Income (DEC)
US: PCE Price Index (DEC)
US: Chicago PMI (JAN)
US: Pending Home Sales (DEC)

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Volatility this week may come down to the outlook for the coronavirus, stimulus, and company specific guidance related to the virus. The vaccine rollout is now paramount. Watch for related headlines throughout the week!

Have a great weekend and please remember to always wash your hands!

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lmaosmiley.gif like the last phrase -----" always wash your hands"!! it fits for the trades as well i reckon!!



Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 05:47 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 16 2021, 08:48 AM

https://www.ft.com/video/06be766d-6f13-405f...72-dab96a797864

Three minutes



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  mullokintyre  rlane  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 08:48 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 16 2021, 12:18 AM

Nobody knows whats going happen, despite all their credentials.
If there are enough pundits being quoted, someone, somewhere will get it right, but it will be a complete fluke.
History is great teacher, and we could get an inkling of what might happen if we look at past events.
But there are a couple of caveats.
Firstly history is told by the victor, and facts or interpretation of events can be distorted to produce varying "outcomes".
This is especially true of the inability of participants toi understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Secondly, the dreaded phrase "this time its different" just keeps popping up.
Society is different today, we have the 24 hour news cycle, the WWW and improved communications means that very little gets hidden away, its all out there. It is so difficult for a person or group to remain hidden away from the world, we are all exposed.
Attitudes have changed, we are more global than local.
But that does not change fundamental rules on the velocity of money, on the distorting effects of greed and corruption, or the glacial pace at which those in charge react to events.
But apart from that, everything is fine.
Take a positive view - namely no matter what happens, there will be good people who survive and prosper and the world WILL keep on turning.
Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 16 2021, 12:18 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/biden-covid...in-to-1929.html

When asked whether investors should be concerned that the president-elect’s spending plan could lead to an event like the 1929 stock market crash, Neuhauser replied: “I think so.”

“You are seeing this massive $1 trillion deficit spending due to a pandemic that has of course stopped the world in the past nine months and the goals of course are: ‘We are going to get a vaccine (and) we are going to come through this,’” Neuhauser told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“We still don’t know the dynamics as to how fast and swiftly we come through this. We also don’t know what global growth will look like in the future years, too.”

In the wake of the stock market crash of Oct. 29, 1929, the S&P 500 fell 86% in less than three years and did not pass its previous peak until 1954.

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sound scary!! ohmy.gif
to me, i don't think it will lead to such bad place. but if can pop up current stock bubble that would be good thing!! imho





 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 11 2021, 08:59 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 11 2021, 08:40 AM

I do not think it is Kristallnacht nor is it 10 Days That Shook the World. All rather amateurish, really. time to move on.

Short term there is a phony rally happening abetted by the Central Bank Put(s) then we will have to see if this Covid thing can be beat, and whether the US can come up with responsible administration.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  mullokintyre  
 


early birds
post Posted: Jan 11 2021, 08:40 AM
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first 10 days of the new year, we face more chaos

to me, look at those event, focus on how they will affecting the financial market, then acting [[ doing the trades that have good chance to profit]
we have no power to change anything around world, but we do have the power try to look after ourselves and families ,and people around us!! tongue.gif

i'm all ear to listen to you guys!! graduated.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 10 2021, 08:38 AM
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brings us to MJ, OIH and XOP. While the differences with these compared to the others are obvious, it's still striking to see how far each remain from their respective highs.

They weren't too intriguing as the downtrends continued to extend lower. But now they do... and the bottoming patterns for each of them remain intriguing, even after the big percentage moves from the lows.

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that three stocks is US stocks, i'm not sure what are the FA for them. someone interested US stocks might get a look at them!! tongue.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 4 2021, 08:42 AM
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Wells Fargo recommended four semiconductor stocks for 2021, arguing the sector's record highs may be here to stay and that global chip-buying trends will propel the best names to even greater heights.

The sector's success has lifted the PHLX Semiconductor index, which tracks 30 of the most important names, to its highest valuation multiple in nearly a decade. But Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers said in a Thursday research note that the world's appetite for chips powering things such as 5G phones and data centers means his four picks have more room to grow.

New phones and continuing demand for more data-center processing power mean equipment manufacturers will need to include significantly more dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, in their products. One of the biggest memory makers, Micron Technologies (ticker: MU), stands to benefit.

Its DRAM is cutting-edge. Rakers' team predicts that the DRAM sales will power the stock to new heights and raised his target for the stock price to $100 from $85.

Micron's DRAM is needed in tons of places, such as helping to power artificial-intelligence and machine-learning applications, in next-generation videogame consoles, and in 5G phones, which typically contain more storage and memory than the prior generations of handsets.

The company, Rakers says, generates an increasing amount of non-GAAP free cash flow, and comes with a strong balance sheet. Barron's likes the name too.

One of Rakers' other picks, Nvidia (NVDA), will also benefit from the growing appetite for computing power. Its graphics processing chips are well suited to training software working with vast data sets, which then can do things such as translate speech and run virtual assistants. Rakers believes uses for those tools will increase, so he raised his target for the stock price to $625 from $605.

The analyst cautioned, however, that the bet on Nvidia for 2021 is less clear than it was this year, when the company launched its Ampere-based server and videogame chips.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) too will benefit from the need for more data-center processors. Its central processing units are already taking market share from rival Intel (INTC). Rakers predicts the trend will continue as it ramps up sales of its Zen-3 Epyc Milan central processing units.

Those chips are also helpful for supercomputing -- seen as a cutting-edge area in technology -- which benefits the AMD brand. Rakers boosted AMD's target price to $120 from $100.

Storage producer Western Digital (WDC) was a disappointment in 2020, but Rakers argues it is s ripe for a turnaround in the second half of 2021. His team thinks that the company's flash-memory business is undervalued and will ship an increasing number of solid-state drives to buyers. Rakers raised his target for the stock price to $65 from $55,

Micron stock was stable at about $72.24 in Friday afternoon trading, Nvidia shares fell 0.8% to $529.53, and AMD stock rose 0.5%. Western Digital rose 1% to $53.98 as the PHLX Semiconductor index notched a gain of 0.2%.
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USA stocks that might gives third or fourth opinion for someone interested!! tongue.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 28 2020, 04:58 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Dec 28 2020, 01:36 PM

yeah, that may be true, and I don't advocate investing with them, collectively or individually, but the reality is there is a ton of money sloshing around, and these outfits get the mandates to put other people's money to work. In super, in family trusts, for sovereign wealth funds, the whole gamut. And what they do with the $s is important as they are the market, or at least a significant element of it.


What I found interesting is there seems to be a consensus view, and to me that is dangerous. A crowded trade when they want to get out (even if they do not signal that, ahead of time)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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