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COVID-19, Pandemic
mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 3 2020, 10:24 AM
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The number of cases of COVID has hit 1 million. (ABC NEWS )
Not sure when day zero was when the first case was counted, , but its been a few months.
It took a few months to get half a million cases, but just 8 days to double to 1 million.
Let's hope we are near or at the top of that bell curve.
Mick



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triage
post Posted: Apr 2 2020, 05:18 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 2 2020, 02:06 PM

Mick

The twitter thread I read was from a poster called Ronni Salt who actually seemed to do fairly decent research about some of the stuff that came out about Angus Taylor. The poster seems to show at least reasonable amount of rigor in looking for evidence or at least analysis. In that thread there were names named - I can't recall which polly it was, I don't follow local politics much these days, but apparently it was one of Scomo's close backers. But I can't seem to find the link I used last time sorry. I'll have another crack later on.

Here is another twitter thread I found, but most of it is fifth hand gossip mongering. As I say, the actual allegation looks a long bow for now but it just seems a total stuff-up to have allowed so many infected people into Australia from a vessel known to have COVID-19 on it (apparently 400 cases so far off the Ruby Princess and when the ship berthed in Sydney they medi-vacced a passenger off who soon after died).

https://mobile.twitter.com/EddyJokovich/sta...003740156837888



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 2 2020, 02:06 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Apr 2 2020, 12:36 PM

Yo Triage, where did you hear the scuttlebut?
I have been searching the internet for references, and couldn't even find it on "the guardian" webdite??
Mick




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balance
post Posted: Apr 2 2020, 01:26 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Apr 2 2020, 12:36 PM

Given the choice between a massive #!&* up and a conspiracy I'll take the F$#@ up almost every time.
On Saturday, The Australian newspaper reported that the ship had logged 158 ill passengers on its previous voyage to New Zealand. Nine people were tested upon arrival in Sydney on 8 March - and their tests results came back negative. However, two passengers from that journey were found to have tested positive after flying home to Darwin.

NSW port and health authorities declined to reply to BBC questions about these reports.

<h2 class="story-body__crosshead">What have authorities said?</h2>On Monday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison described the mistake as the responsibility of state officials.

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard told reporters on Saturday: "With the benefit of what we now know... I'd have said 'yeah, maybe we should hold them on the ship.'"

But he rejected Canberra's accusations that state officials had not properly checked cruise ships upon entry.

"New South Wales is actually going over and above what the national guidelines are," said Mr Hazzard.

State health officials stressed they had run assessments "well beyond federal requirements" for 63 ships which have entered the harbour since mid-February.

Others noted that while Canberra had enacted a ban on cruise ships arriving, it had allowed four including the Ruby Princess to be exempt.

Four other cruise ships into Sydney have been linked to confirmed Covid-19 cases. The Ovation of the Seas ship, which docked in Sydney a day before the Ruby Princess, has seen five positive tests.





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triage
post Posted: Apr 2 2020, 12:36 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 2 2020, 09:47 AM

EB - there is scuttlebutt doing the rounds that it was actually Scott Morrison or someone closely linked to him that gave the all-clear for the Ruby Princess passengers simply to scatter. The story goes that one of his close cabinet allies had some family members on that cruise and the polly wanted to get the family members out of harm's way as quickly as possible. So the polly called in a debt that Scomo had. No doubt even if the PM addresses this rumour he will strenuously deny any involvement. But as we've seen with the bushfire holiday, the invitation to his pastor to the White House, and his two daughters being taken out of school, these days sooner or later the story gets out. Though in this case the story likely amounts to nothing.

But the fact that the Feds blamed NSW Health indicates to me that something smells. At any port the first and second lines of entry are manned by Commonwealth officials, not state officials. And the fact that Border Force has sent medical teams out to the numerous vessels waiting off the coast for permission to berth just shows that the border is the domain of the Feds not the states. My guess that any attempt to blame the Ruby Princess debacle entirely on NSW Health is a smoke-screen for something else.




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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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early birds
post Posted: Apr 2 2020, 09:47 AM
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/deaths...20200402-p54g92

The NSW government has belatedly taken a hard line on cruise ships following the Ruby Princess debacle last month, when thousands of passengers were allowed to disembark from the cruise ship and spread the virus across Australia.

More than 400 cases have been linked to the cruise ship, about 10 per cent of the infections in Australia.

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seems no one care why this happened, no one has responsibility for it till now???????????



 


triage
post Posted: Apr 1 2020, 07:39 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 1 2020, 04:48 PM

Mick - If the Taiwanese miss the asymptomatic carriers but pick up all the people infected by the asymptomatic carriers they effectively neutralise that asymptomatic carrier. Catching 'em early is really important in exponential cases. 2 to the power of 3 is 8 but 8 to the power of 3 is 512. 8 infected people is managable but 512 is starting to become a problem. Even if one asymptomatic carrier infected someone else who also became an asymptomatic carrier we are not talking exponential rates but geometric rates. By testing everyone the Taiwanese reduced the risk of asymptomatic carriers to almost nothing



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: Apr 1 2020, 06:09 PM
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Multi factor, evolving. Not fully understood. The asymptomatic issue is, I tend to agree, a big one.

No-one and no country has a clear way through to the end.

New FT graphs up https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 1 2020, 04:48 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 1 2020, 09:17 AM

An interesting rant, but i have one particular issue with the argument put forward.
Like so many others, he cites South Korea and Taiwan as being model responders that we could all learn from.
They put the case that testing temperatures of people going in and out and forcing the hi temp folks to test and go into quarantine allows most normal activities like schools, restaurants, retail shops etc to remain open.
The only problem is that there is a percentage of cases which are asymptomatic - they patient has the virus, is infectious , but shows no symptoms- including high temperature.
The value of this percentage I have seen as low as 18% and as high as 59%. ( see Nature )
So at any one time, there is a number of patients walking around undetected unless they test for antibodies in the system.
So it would seem questionable as to whether the check the temperature will pick up all patients with the disease.
Certainly, those with an elevated temperature can be tested, but unless they test a very high percentage of the non hi temp people, threr will be varying numbers of carriers undetected.
Either these countries were very lucky or there is some other as yet undiscovered factor.
One of the other factors cited is the level of already impaired lungs.
You can have impaired lungs because of air pollution, asthma, and smoking.
South Korea , Taiwan both have 23% of people smoking.
Italy, one of the worst hit areas also has 23% smoking rate.
Iran, another hard hit country has 12.5% smokers, and the US, with the biggest numbers of cases has a smoking rate of 14%.
Yes, you must be careful of generalisations over a large and diverse population, but once again, the figures don't seem to add up.
Mick





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nipper
post Posted: Apr 1 2020, 09:17 AM
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Read and heed
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/...ting-angry.html

QUOTE
I regard the current course of English speaking democracies (other than New Zealand) as mass murder by the political elite. I think history will regard it that way too





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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