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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 01:40 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 14 2019, 02:22 PM

Could explain market movement this afternoon
Exclusive: U.S., China sketch outlines of deal to end trade war - sources
QUOTE
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet toward ending a seven-month trade war, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trad...s-idUSKCN1QA07U



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 19 2019, 08:55 AM
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https://insights.westpac.com.au/Video/Detai...mcars7iHQ%3d%3d

lmaosmiley.gif , it has reasons to be cheep i guess.
for investors , that is the case to make decisions .imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 14 2019, 02:22 PM
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Trump Considers 60-Day Extension for China Tariff Deadline

https://www.bloomberg.com/asia

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can anyone trust Trumpy these days???? thumbdown.gif

market seems muted for the news atm. priced in already?? unsure.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 08:32 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20190212-h1b4zg

Yardeni Research said it expects a trade deal between the US and China by the end of this month.

"The Chinese need a deal badly to placate Trump's demands for fairer trade so that he won't impose another round of tariffs on US imports from China. One tipoff is that the Chinese could have responded to US criminal charges against Huawei by walking away from the talks, but they didn't do so."

Overnight the latest UK economic data reflected the increasing uncertainty of Brexit. The UK economy decelerated faster than expected in the final three months of 2018. There are concerns that consumer sentiment will deteriorate the longer it takes for a clearer outlook on Brexit to appear and that business investment will continue to falter too.

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs sounded a more optimistic note in his comment.

"All told, Brexit uncertainty clearly is slowing the economy, but we do not see a strong case for expecting GDP to fall in Q1," Mr Tombs said. "We have revised down our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3%, due to the lower-than-expected starting point in December.

"We also have nudged own our forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in 2019 as a whole to 1.5%, from 1.6%. But we're not prepared to bet against consumers at this stage, given their track record of resilience and myopia."

As expected, the spot price of iron ore leapt higher on Monday as it reset with the return of Chinese traders. The surge in iron ore prices has led Citigroup to significantly lift its earnings forecasts for BHP, Rio and Fortescue. It has buy ratings on both BHP and Rio; and a hold on FMG.
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uncertainty ----is the word for current market condition.



 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 3 2019, 07:16 PM
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Of course, should there be any leaks re the Banking Royal Commission during the course of Monday - before the report is made public after the close of the market - you can probably discount any of the comments below regarding a positive start. Leaks back in 2017, before the announcement of the multi-billion banking levy, which were included in the Federal Budget, wiped $14 bil off the banks SP
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/fed...0b9d023022e0a0c

QUOTE
Australia's share market is tipped to open positively but the release of the financial services royal commission report is likely to impact trade throughout the week.

The positive start has been attributed to favourable company earnings and employment in the United States as well as a rise in oil prices in Australia, CommSec chief economist Craig James said.

"A lot of support from our market is coming from the resource sector," Mr James said.


QUOTE
Mr Hayne's report is expected to contain recommendations that will have a recognisable impact on the banking and financial sector, including lending practices.

"There will be a fair bit of caution from investors before the statement comes out ... it will influence trade over Tuesday and the remainder of the week," Mr James said.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ban...203-p50veo.html



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 28 2019, 11:51 AM
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The growing problem that could lead the world into a new kind of financial crisis
extract
QUOTE
However, Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, says that it is an open question how robust a system in which most of the assets are held by fund managers rather than banks will be to an economic shock.

"The good news is that exposure [to debt defaults] doesn't jump to the core of the financial system but there could be some surprises in terms of pricing that could lead to bigger overshoots," Carney said on a panel in Davos.

What this means is that a lack of liquidity in the market could result in lots of investors trying to rush out of a very small door. And this could turn a correction in the markets into a crash.

The working assumption, therefore, is that investors could lose a lot of money but no banks will go bust and the financial system won't be brought to its knees. But, as Carney said, no one really knows. Might a crash in the price of assets banks don't hold lead to a crash in the price of the assets that they do?

"What we worry about is if you extrapolate [these trends] potentially this risk comes closer to the core of the system," said Carney.

"Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't happen."

Might the Davos cognoscenti have erred again?

read more https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...128-p50u0l.html



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 28 2019, 11:30 AM
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Theresa May's government could declare a state of emergency and introduce martial law under a no-deal Brexit
THOMAS COLSON
JAN 27, 2019
QUOTE
The government is reportedly considering introducing martial law and declaring a state of emergency if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
There is growing concern that a no-deal Brexit could lead to civil unrest.
3,500 British troops have already been put on standby to cope with a possible no-deal EU exit.


Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-could-de...yD6eEZT0EBU0.99



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
plastic
post Posted: Jan 23 2019, 12:05 PM
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QUOTE
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 2m2 minutes ago Deroy Murdock, National Review: “We are now exporting oil, which is the first time in my lifetime - we are right now the largest producer of oil and gas. This is not good if you’re Vladimir Putin where your chief export is oil. W.H. Agent - Not good for Kremlin.” @TuckerCarlson


He forgot the bit which says, oil pumped straight of the American owned wells seized off Iraq in Iraq.






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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 21 2019, 01:41 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 20 2019, 07:48 PM

China's economy cools in the fourth quarter, 2018 growth hits 28-year low
Kevin Yao
QUOTE
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth cooled slightly in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as expected, weighed down by weak investment and faltering consumer confidence as Washington piled on trade pressure, leaving 2018 growth the weakest in 28 years.

Signs of further cooling in China — which has generated nearly a third of global growth in recent years — are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

Fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis, easing to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent in the third quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 6.4 percent.

That left full-year growth at 6.6 percent, the slowest rate of expansion China has seen since 1990. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected it to cool to 6.6 percent from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017.


read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-ec...w-idUSKCN1PF04A

China's economy meets growth forecasts but analysts remain doubtful
By business reporter Michael Janda
Posted 18 minutes ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-21/chin...stment/10731672



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 20 2019, 08:26 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 20 2019, 08:14 PM

QUOTE
The suits are pressed and the jets are gassed up, as global political and business leaders prepare to converge in Davos for the World Economic Forum.

To prep the wide variety of world leaders attending the summit, the organization has just published its most recent edition of the Global Risks Report. The highly anticipated annual presentation puts the world’s most pressing issues into focus, giving a sense of what is top-of-mind for global decision-makers.

Below are the top five risks highlighted in this year’s report.


The complete 14th Edition of The Global Risks Report 2019 can be accessed here - > http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Ri...Report_2019.pdf
Attached File(s)
Attached File  global_risks_2019.png ( 50.35K ) Number of downloads: 5

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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