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Verharven
Posted on: Jul 3 2020, 07:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

QUOTE
"For that reason, I have registered for the new board. I hope it is objective and balanced. I fear with contents on the originallly linked page like "the publc company that doesn't want to be", "you can't handle the truth" and "would you like a condo with your implant" that it may get too negative over there towards management. If so, that will fly in the face of what people are complaining about - that they want fair and balanced facts and opinions. But, one can only see how things go."

Looks like your voice has been heard and that site has been cleaned up
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 29 2020, 03:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Open short position data is 4 trading days old so hasn't reflected the SP drop from last Thursday or even today yet so would be expecting an uptick soon - doesn't bother me much as the fundamentals will override the shorts in the end.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 29 2020, 02:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

The shorts really aren't ready to give up playing the game - SP down almost 5% today on a measily 51k shares - all algo sold in tiny parcels. I'm paniced - please buy my shares Mr Shorty McShortShort
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 25 2020, 07:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

New hire in the Melbourne office, but note the requirement for Mandarin

https://www.seek.com.au/job/50137165?type=s...80-99d94554f28d

Scientific Affairs Assistant

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd

Interesting and diverse role in a growing international organisation
Important support to Scientific Affairs Team
Requires well developed organisational skills

Melbourne based bio-pharmaceutical company developing a first-in-class pharmaceutical drug is seeking an enthusiastic individual with proven experience in administration to provide key administrative support to the Scientific Affairs Team.

The role requires a flexible, intelligent and personable individual who is able to work on a number of activities at one time, both independently and with key staff. You will assist the team with research, literature searches, document management, diary management, liaison with relevant external parties, assist the Chief Scientific Officer with adhoc duties and much more.

Candidates must demonstrate the following personal qualities and experience:

  • Previous history working in a similar role
  • Adaptable in constantly changing environment
  • Ability to prioritise work, to problem solve and to display initiative where needed
  • Ability to learn an organizational structure and manage internal and external relationships
  • Proven experience with MS Office suits
  • Strong attention to detail
  • Candidate must have excellent written and verbal communication skills in English and Mandarin
  • A bright, enthusiastic, motivated, professional manners
  • Relevant background knowledge in chemistry, pharmaceutical sciences or related fields will be a plus


This is a full time role with some overtime required for specific projects or busy periods.

All candidates must have the right to work in Australia.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 25 2020, 06:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Palo Alto was removed when the two new centres of South Carolina and Georgia were added so the count went from 6 to 7. Will see if it comes back.....
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 23 2020, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

And shorts updated for Wednesday of last week when the SP went up $2. Down from 8.72% to 8.52%. Rough corrleation from Tuesday and Wednesday trading is a 0.1 percentage point drop in shorts equals a $1 SP rise.

I very much doubt the shorters will get much significant sell volume to buy back in until the SP starts with a 4
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 23 2020, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Because all their shorting prior was SO effective at causing a panic sell off - we know their game and won't be happy until the pigs are squealing while they're led off to the butchers. The only thing that has worked at putting real-world downwards pressure on the SP has been the coronavirus...hang on a minute ohmy.gif

Had a 1,000 share buy order just miss out today near the lows. Trying to do my bit.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2020, 01:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Hasn't hit Shortman yet, but on ASIC, shorts as of Tuesday last week which was the first of the two big SP rise days in a row went from 8.83% to 8.72%
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 21 2020, 07:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

So I noted the dicussion prior about being unsure where we are at with France as have gone to 'audition' (translated as 'hearing') but the agenda for their next distance meeting on Wednesday screenshoted below taken from here shows that an audition is hardly an uncommon thing.

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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 20 2020, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910


https://porphyriafoundation.org/news-blog/a...t-testimonials/

Treatment Testimonials

Friday, June 19, 2020

The American Porphyria Foundation (APF) is gathering testimonials from members about their experience with FDA-approved treatments (Panhematin, Scenesse, GIVLAARI.)

If you are interested in sharing your experience with the APF, please include your response using the link below.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 19 2020, 03:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

FYI: run the video in full screen mode using the option in the bottom right of the video box to play the full video without being hit by the registration screen. CUV discussed about 12.5 minutes in. The second in studio analyst has NFI.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 19 2020, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

If I was short, I'd be racing to close out before the squeeze really hits, and then buy 'again' as a long to profit from the rise to try and cover the short losses. Genuis move 😆
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 18 2020, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

It wasn't really a transfer, it is the volume weighted average price for the open for all the shares on the buy and sell side that are overlapped so represents more an auction - recent days it has been < 10k. Same thing happens 10 minutes after the 4pm close each day.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 18 2020, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Open at $27.46 with 100k shares on the opening trade match
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 18 2020, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Still an hour to open so could be games being played, but that's a solid buy order of 51k shares @ $29.73 pushing the opening indicative price to close to $30


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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 17 2020, 04:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Has your account been hacked by xray?
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 16 2020, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

While the shorts in CUV are ticking down, so too are positions in a bunch of other shares around it so CUV has moved up a notch to now be the 6th most shorted stock on the ASX. Good times to be short CUV laugh.gif
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 16 2020, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

As much as the SP action is amazing today and may indicate shorters getting out, the rise in CUV is in line with several biotech peers such as MSB (up 9%) and AVH (up 7.3%) and even the 'shorting partner' of CUV that being NEA (up 8.7%). So that's all pretty good news if it's just general market setiment moving things today.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 16 2020, 06:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

"There results were presented in the late-breaking clinical session at the annual AAD 2020 conference"

What, the 2020 American Academy of Dermatology Association conference that was cancelled due to COVID-19?? https://www.aad.org/member/meetings/am2020

They may have had an abstract abstract accepted as late breaking, but this was never 'presented' to anyone either in person or online.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 15 2020, 12:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

CUV profiled on the home page of Intelligent Investor https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/reco...-the-sun/147573
I got a 15-day free subscription to read it, but here's a PDF screen grab of it to save you the trouble

A very positive article and could explain the SP action today.


Attached File  Clinuvel_s_time_in_the_sun___Intelligent_Investor.pdf ( 2.3MB ) Number of downloads: 1028
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 12 2020, 05:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Props to npa869 on HC for charting this. Shows the SP since Jan 1 2019 in red/green for the day highs and lows with the background shading in yellow the number of open shorts.

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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 4 2020, 05:09 PM


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Posts: 910

Has taken a while for the shorts to be updated for today (normally done by 1:30pm) and just in on the ASIC site, so not on shortman yet. But open short positions as of Friday May 29 when we had the big after-market SP price and volume increase is now at 9.29% so shorts increased on that day from 9.15% so the price action for that day wasnt due to shorts closing out.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 29 2020, 04:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Surge of buyers jumped on the buy depth at the close hence the $24.22 close. Have a nice weekend shorters.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 29 2020, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

I tend to agree that I'm okay with long-term posters here posting the odd tangental tip occassionally so long as is in the biotech/healthcare space
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Verharven
Posted on: May 28 2020, 09:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Glowing patient reports with the most minimal of very short-term side-effects which are on par with about all that has been seen over decades of use. Following is the language that Mitsubishi Tanabe used in their press release from the PII trial in November of last year. This is not the language I've ever seen used (I've got 30 years in medical research) to describe something with negligible minor side effects of the like you see with Scenesse. Liver side effects a clear issue and who knows what else.

"ENDEAVOR is a phase 2 proof of concept study for MT-7117 as a treatment option for EPP. ENDEAVOR met its primary endpoint of change from baseline in average daily time (minutes) to first prodromal symptom associated with sunlight exposure between 1 hour post sunrise and 1 hour pre-sunset at Week 16. MT-7117 was generally well tolerated with an acceptable safety profile."
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Verharven
Posted on: May 25 2020, 07:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Just checked and the Big Kahuna of CSL was also the same for having late crossing trades go through so 'nothing to see here' regarding CUV.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 25 2020, 06:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Yes, 141k traded for the day.and well picked up as there was a 50k trade at 5pm which is very rare indeed to see any after-market trading after the close out at 4:10pm
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Verharven
Posted on: May 25 2020, 05:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Shorts now at 9.24% (9.27% when this article was written) from an ATH 33 days ago at 9.65% and that's a 'slide'. You can't spell 'Fool' without 'James Mickleboro'. Fun fact: when the shorts hit their ATH on April 23, the SP closed at $19.87 so you can see the sort of influence even that small 'slide' can have on the SP. Sucks to be holding open shorts right now.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 19 2020, 04:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

EPP centre map now showing 5 locations - Miami, Detroit, Salem (Oregon), LA and welcome and hello to Salt Lake City. Just need an East Coast one like New York and that would be some good geographic coverage already.

https://scenesse.com/public/epp-centers/
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Verharven
Posted on: May 19 2020, 03:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Hi Clinope. I am really confused on the wording here in the newsletter. To start with, it is not a case that all Australian's are 'given' just under $1,500 for drugs. If a drug is on the PBS, then no matter what the real cost, all a patient pays is a fairly nominal prescription fee (co-payment) of up to $41 (most are less than this and even lower for concessional card holders). If you have lots and lots of prescriptions over a year though, that small nominal fee starts to add up hence the safety net provision of $1,486.80 after which further co-payments are reduced even more. I really can't see the relevance of any of this in the newsletter - the only game in town is getting listed on the PBS after which, anyone that needs it will get it for 'lose change' - insurance companies are not involved in subsidising drugs. The PBS is all part of the Medicare system and while not perfect, am so grateful we have the public health system we do here compared to America as it is funded by a 2% levy that all tax payers contribute once their income is above a threshold level.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 19 2020, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Regarding the mention of the two vitiligo trials in the newsletter flowchart, that is actually fairly good news as the talk prior was if two Phase 3s would be needed, but a P2 and P3 is much more palatable for the shorter duration and cost of a P2.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 19 2020, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

So seems the upside from being strict AF on off-label use is how they're being seen by reg bodies and insurers so making up ground in other areas.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 18 2020, 04:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

I could be wrong on this, but I would see it as 'unusual' to do two separately named trials when it could all be done under a single umbrella as a Scenesse only treatment just becomes another arm of the same trial. Once you divide them into two separate trials, you are dealing with potentially different overall protocols, duplication of registration and ethics, and a small question of the statistics validity when making direct comparisons between groups as you would not be randomising against the same pool of patients who were recruited under a single protocol.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 18 2020, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

That was my reading of it too Frogster that potentially only one P3 was needed with PW planning for two initially to be conservative as he did use the language of '1 or 2' at the AGM from memory when questioned around this indication.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 12 2020, 01:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Shorts tick down a tiny bit more to 9.2%. It's a tortise and hare race with the hare being the rising SP and tortise the declining short position. Except the hare is on a cocktail of Russian 'vitamin pills' and the tortise has all its legs cut off and is on its back.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 8 2020, 05:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Just my thoughts on the shorters as to them 'missing an opportunity' in getting out in the low teens - the SP rise from $13 back into the low $20s has occurred with no real net change in short positions apart from the last few days. So even if the shorters had of wanted to have gotten out, the market volume just wasn’t there for them to close out at that price (unless they had a pre-arranged large seller and what dick would want to sell to them at such a low SP with good potential ahead and the low largely caused by the shorters anyway). And if they did try and aggressively unwind, the SP would be starting with a 3 or 4 even now. All they're doing is delaying the inevitable or waiting for some other market shake up to drive the SP. Guess they could always short some more to do that 😁
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Verharven
Posted on: May 7 2020, 07:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

The 2020 CUV plan has finally been implemented based on the positive news flow of recent times: under promise and over deliver. Which makes a nice change to their prior M.O. of promise and deliver ridiculously late or never.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 6 2020, 06:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Open short positions are updated about 1:30pm (Melbourne/Sydney time) each day for 4 trading days prior so today's update was for last Thursday.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 6 2020, 05:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Shorts at 9.32% as of last Thursday which is the lowest since March 23 when the SP was $13.50 so maybe could be a sign of them exiting. Though I note the shorts have been pretty much in flat-line since then as the ATH is only around 9.65% yet we're sitting at over $23 today ($22.03 to make a fair comparison to last Thursday's short number) so a lot of the shorting churn since March 23 is underwater.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 1 2020, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Nice summary. And you could add that CUV's only nearest competitor for the EPP market has likely been hit hard with trial delays from coronavirus and that's assuming the trial was nearing close to commencing which is a brave assumption as I'm calling this mostly smoke and mirrors for the shenganignas going on around this (I'm looking at you LH).

Market down 3.5% today and CUV just holding level with only 12 stocks in the ASX200 in the green today.
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Verharven
Posted on: May 1 2020, 09:44 AM


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Posts: 910

My summary: "We had a good meeting with a team that knows what we're about. They gave some feedback and we're going to amend our trial design to incoroporate that."

Tick.
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 06:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Fantastic find seeva222 so that answers the question of when impants will start to flow in the US. Nice follow up comment on that post.


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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 04:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

At 9.61%, it is just 0.02 percentage points away from its ATH of 9.63%. I'm expecting it to go up a bit more this week as pretty sure the shorters jumped on it after the China annoucement last Thursday as it spiked on the good news on opening and then got smashed down over the day and it looked like classic shorter TA action - you can play the TA game for only so long before fundamental analysis will come back to squeeze you out...
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 04:11 PM


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Posts: 910

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cuv
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 09:46 AM


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Posts: 910

CUV has been rock-solid about uniform pricing across countries for years and that has been a positive in their USA negotiations as couldn't be accused of price gouging. Not a chance in hell China would get any special deal on pricing, especially for what has gone on with the whole coronavirus debacle for how they managed it.
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Pretty awesome news. That's 10 more patients being treated as a gateway into the Chinese market of a potential of 5,000
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 07:54 PM


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Posts: 910

You are correct on that - all the treatments being trialled are existing approved drugs for other indications so the only delays from the idea to the first patient getting the drug is getting the researchers and institutions on board for the trial design, funding and ethics approval (fast-tracked I'm sure). Scennesse would be faced with the same initial constraints so no way could any trial start 'today' - would need a few months from the initial concept.
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

It could be that a large SH uses it as an opportunity to sell a chunk via a pre-arranged trade with the shorter(s) otherwise in the face of anaemic sell-side volume and that likely most SHers won't even be considering selling until its north of its approval day peak, can't see how they can maintain an orderly exit.
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 02:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Best performing stock on the ASX200 today. Shorters are screwed. God bless them all.
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 01:14 PM


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Posts: 910

Timely commentary as shorts hit an ATH of 9.63%. I can imagine what is starting to fill up Shorty McShortpants' pants
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Absolutely - well done CUV and credit where credit is due to have this up and running in 6 months with the bulk of insurers already on board.
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 15 2020, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Fully agree that the trial is still in the pre-recruiting phase as outside the lack of presence on the clinical trial registry, there is not a trace of the study on Google which if it were 'live' and recruiting there would be mentions in institutional ethics review board approvals (you cannot recruit until you have ethics approval), patient information statements (to allow informed consent into the trial), and even formal trial promotion posts (posts by a random on FB talking about the trial don't count as trial promotion). COVID-19 may slow down take-up of Scennesse a little in the US, but it is far more in the favour of CUV here in a potential competitor being delayed by probably 6 months and with that, a smaller pool of patients to recruit from seeing as use of Scennesse is a major exclusion criterion.
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 09:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

123% eps decline? I've read the article and what am I missing here - how can something be it EPS or any other metric decline by more than 100%??
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Verharven
Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 12:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

I had all the warrants on my watchlist. It was tumbleweeds for any volume action happening with any of them - just some 'loose change' transactions here and there
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Now up to number 8 on the most shorted list at 9.58% - go CUV!!!
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Shorts still on the up, to now 9.31% which is an ATH and for the first time, we've hit the Top 10 with CUV now the tenth most shorted stock on the ASX
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 25 2020, 05:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Some pretty insane volume on CLVLY. I just looked at the last 5 years data and at a volume of 148k as I write this, is the second highest on record with the only day above this being FDA approval day at 210k. At USD11.02 currently which is AUD18.64.
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 23 2020, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

So from my reading of this, is it realistic that patients could start accessing Scennesse from the three centres already online from mid April?
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 19 2020, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Newsletter out


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 573.55K ) Number of downloads: 257

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 16 2020, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

UniSuper stops loans to short sellers

One of Australia’s largest superannuation funds, the $85 billion UniSuper fund, has pulled the pin on lending its stock to short-sellers as markets plunge.

UniSuper, which manages the savings of university staff members told its custodian, BNP Paribas Securities Services, to suspend its stock lending program effective immediately.

BNP Paribas will also recall all shares currently out on loan, without exception.

UniSuper chief investment officer John Pearce said: “In a normally functioning market we’re comfortable lending our shares as we genuinely believe that it adds to market efficiency.”

“The ability to short-sell adds to liquidity and price discovery in an orderly market. However, we are now in a market gripped by panic and we believe that restricting the ability to short-sell is in the best interest of promoting a more orderly market.”

“We are only one fund and the efficacy of our actions will depend on how many other funds follow a similar path. Of course, we are not privy to the thinking of other funds who lend their stock.”

The program will be suspended indefinitely.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/m...ec182f513c6c142
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 11 2020, 05:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Here's the aftermarket trading

LT XT = Late Trade Crossing Trade
SX XT = Portfolio Special Crossing Trade


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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 5 2020, 07:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

FYI for YouTube videos, you can turn on subtitles with automatic language translation as quite a few German ones posted. The translation is never perfect as is happening on the fly from the audio, but pretty good to work out what is happening in real-time.
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 5 2020, 04:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Yes, that was based on the information being posted on FB as actually being true - which I have serious doubts about
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 5 2020, 03:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

You can't sign up patients to a trial that you don't have ethical approval to run in the first place - you would be shut down in an instant. Patients need to be provided with trial details in a plain language statement which also includes ethics approval and contact details as such so that they can provide informed consent. Also, any patient is free to leave the trial at any stage for whatever reason they like - they aren't really 'locked in'.
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 4 2020, 07:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Probably would want to see some additional verification of this. They only put out a release on the P2 results in November of last year, but somehow since then have designed the study, got all the treating centres set up and importantly, got all the required institutional ethics in place to recruit in April? Ethics approval alone does not work on those sorts of timelines with so many sites involved - happy to shown wrong on this, but it is pretty amazing if that has happened. And importantly, no mention of it on the Clinical Trials database https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond...city=&dist=
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 4 2020, 04:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Well, it's rare that I'm pleasantly surprised about CUV as could just see the US Scenesse site sitting in maintenance mode for months, but there it is up and running. Sure, it isn't going to win any design awards, but seems functional and fairly well presented to me. And great to see the 3 current EPP centres of Miami, LA and Detroit actually listed. And meanwhile, on the German and US exchanges, CUV Is trading above AUD20
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

FDA confirms Type C meeting for vitiligo for 29 April

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 185.6K ) Number of downloads: 98

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 3 2020, 07:51 AM


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Posts: 910

"Maintenance Mode" - just oozes professionalism
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Up to about AUD19 on very good volume - sorely needed!
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Verharven
Posted on: Mar 2 2020, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Again, why do you have Tom Petrosky's picture there???
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Verharven
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 05:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Why have you put Tom Petrosky's photo on this?
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Verharven
Posted on: Feb 28 2020, 09:51 AM


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Posts: 910

And add to that data for inclusion and exclusion is based on 6-months average of SP and volume - will be a long time yet before exclusion discussions are warranted.
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Verharven
Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 02:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

NEA shorting has finally broken with CUV and it was the earnings guidance downgrade that saw the SP crash 25% that was the catalyst for shorters to start closing out. Maybe they're waiting for a similar style of event with CUV as their trigger to exit. Us CUV longs are made of sturdier stuff than that to turn us into bed wetters, what with the constant disappointment with the very odd bright ray the norm for years upon years.
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Verharven
Posted on: Feb 3 2020, 09:05 AM


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Australia is not the US or Europe. The key factor is being listed on the PBS (Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme) so the Government covers most of the cost under the public health system of Medicare. If not on the PBS, then the patient would have to pay. Most medicines in Australia are on the PBS.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jan 30 2020, 03:19 PM


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Billy, if you're a holder of the stock unless you've got some next-level CGT issues to balance out, you sell it, you don't pay price premiums to borrow the stock from a broker to short it
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Verharven
Posted on: Jan 30 2020, 12:51 PM


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Shorts up to 7.99% and now at position 22 of the most shorted stocks. A salutary tale for NEA whose short activity (12.05% and position 7) has paralleled CUV since ASX200 inclusion and today issued a profit guidance downgade - SP down 25% - shorters popping champagne corks.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 06:41 PM


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CUV is now the 27th most shorted stock on the ASX at 7.39%. You'd have to say the SP is doing a sterling job in the face of all this shorting with the SP staying pretty well flat for some time. Won't be flat when the shorters have to buy back in.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 04:59 PM


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"With registration dossier submitted @ 23/12/2019 (assuming accepted by the TGA), we should expect before the last week of May 2020 approval."

The review process is 150 working days so that's about 7.5 months so late August at the earliest
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Verharven
Posted on: Jan 13 2020, 12:25 PM


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Posts: 910

From Silverchair on Hotcopper

"Broker Moelis Australia has upgraded its price target for Clinuvel today - Target Price of $44.42. The truth is without the enormous amount of artificial selling via shorts in the last 6 months the CUV share price would already be at $44. The shorting is good in that it has allowed me to buy a lot more shares at bargain basement prices so thanks for that! Going to be a big couple of years for CUV IMO.."
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Verharven
Posted on: Dec 23 2019, 09:03 AM


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Wow - they announced the TGA registration pathway on Oct 30 with a planned submission for Q1 2020 which if it was done by March 31 I would have been pretty stunned. So for the first time ever in the history of CUV, they've smashed their deadlines. Nice one. Please, more of this. Now the clock is ticking for 150 working days to assess.
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Verharven
Posted on: Dec 21 2019, 09:02 AM


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Database errors on the Shortman website for the last few days. Can always view the current aggregate short positions directly from the ASIC website here https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/ma...-reports-table/

Open short positions for CUV as of Monday 16 December stands at 6.9%
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Verharven
Posted on: Dec 11 2019, 05:38 PM


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Here's the trade


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Verharven
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 06:08 PM


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LH has now been banned. He/she is now moaning about it over on the Yahoo! CLVLY discussion group. We get it, we all agree MT-7117 is something we all need to keep a watch on as it develops but can do without the endless repetition of the same points and God complex attitude that you're the only bearer of the true facts.
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Verharven
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 08:52 AM


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Would want to be some amazing Phase II results to give them confidence there will be greater efficacy and less toxicity than Scenesse to warrant a Phase III
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Verharven
Posted on: Nov 27 2019, 07:30 AM


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What hasn't been mentioned about MT-7117 is the courageous assumption that the FDA would only require one Phase III trial - normally two are needed which puts the timelines for even the possibility of it being a competitor out to 5 years. Even PW stated they are preparing for likely two P3s for vitiligo and this for an approved drug with an impeccable safety profile.
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Verharven
Posted on: Nov 26 2019, 03:21 PM


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If you had EPP and were in the US and had an insurer ready to pay for Scennesse, why on earth would anyone agree to forgo that and instead participate in a clinical trial of another drug in development where the efficacy (and safety) is still being worked out and also bearing the risk if they did go in the trial, could be in the placebo group? What am I missing here that CUV will somehow lose potential sales for the period the enrolment in the trial was happening? Sure, if you had no way to pay for Scennesse, you'd consider the trial, but that person would never have been a customer for CUV in the first place.
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Verharven
Posted on: Nov 23 2019, 02:17 PM


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Posts: 910

If you're after some leveraged long exposure to CUV that is tradeable on the open market, then CitiFirst has just released 4 warrants (American style which means that they can be exercised to buy the underlying shares if you so desire) with strike prices following and no expiry date. I can see all of them on my broking platform though only CUVKOA has had any trading action since their release on November 5 for a grand total of 10k warrants (1 x multiplier).


CUVKOA $23.541 https://au.citifirst.com/EN/Products/MINIs/...HARMLTD/CUVKOA/
CUVKOB $21.97 https://au.citifirst.com/EN/Products/MINIs/...HARMLTD/CUVKOB/
CUVKOC $19.18 https://au.citifirst.com/EN/Products/MINIs/...HARMLTD/CUVKOC/
CUVKOD $17.435 https://au.citifirst.com/EN/Products/MINIs/...HARMLTD/CUVKOD/
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Verharven
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 12:07 PM


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"With PW being such a massive shareholder this SP manipulation situation would obviously be concerning to him also yes?"

A direct question to PW at the AGM was about the shorting and he gave a very frank answer which I'll paraphrase: "As an MD, it is of no concern. As a shareholder, it is of concern to me" He also said after that everyone who bet against CUV in the past has lost - fair call I say.
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Verharven
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 03:45 AM


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"MT-7117 was generally well tolerated with an acceptable safety profile."

While we'll have to wait until 2020 to see the results, this language while potentially being ultra-conservative, is not the sort of language I'm used to seeing for something that has little to minimal side-effects with the use of the words 'generally' and 'acceptable'.
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Verharven
Posted on: Nov 10 2019, 08:21 AM


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Is there really a need for the personal attack on another poster? Play the ball, not the man okay Ian?
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 11:36 AM


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TGA grants priority review for registration pathway. The dossier to be submitted Q1 2020 (I'll believe that when I see it) with TGA review to take ~7 months (150 working days). It is pleasing to see action pretty quickly on this however so soon post FDA decision.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 168.81K ) Number of downloads: 131

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 11:03 AM


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Letter from the incoming chair: please vote for the performance rights. Thinking they've been getting a lot of push back and votes may not be a certainty.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 108.83K ) Number of downloads: 90

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 03:08 AM


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Posts: 910

Thank you! I noticed the absence of daily gross shorts a few days ago and wondered why. ASX 'owns' this data so clearly don't want to let others use it so you have to now manually check this each day if you want from here https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

ASIC though 'own' the aggregated data which lags by 4 trading days which is what Shortman publishes still and is the most relevant information anyway. The data comes from here https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/ma...-reports-table/
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 03:02 AM


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Here's the graph (the one on the left obviously!) and of course this is average data for many company data point so no expectation that CUV must perfectly track this. The absence of a run up in price to approval day was from shorting. But yes, a decline in the weeks after approval is pretty normal - CUV's is much larger because of the initial approval spike, but the direction is the same as the average.


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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 28 2019, 07:32 AM


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I voted through Computershare and was simple as the option was there as I'm already a registered user of the platform so can do all the admin of my shares within it.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 25 2019, 03:40 PM


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On a feeling, thought I'd check back into the trading after the market close at 4:10 pm and what do you know - another 150k in a cross trade well after the close



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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 24 2019, 06:31 PM


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Posts: 910

I had to go into the course of sales to see it as very rare to see an aftermarket trade go through and not something I ever check on after the trading is done at 4:10 pm. Note the error in the price Farleap11 gave as should be $30.40. You can see the volume reflected in the quote CUV have on their site as the volume they always give is for the ASX and Chi-X combined so 470k shares for the day with 460k of that on the ASX. https://www.clinuvel.com/investors/share-prices

S3 XT is a Block Special Crossing which basically means it's a special sized (usually large) cross trade



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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 04:50 PM


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Receipts were $10.7M for this quarter last year and $5.6M for the same quarter the year before. I'm going for a number of $15.2M
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 19 2019, 04:30 AM


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I agree with your post about potentially accelerated approval for XP, though this part is not entirely correct:

"If new clinical trials were unethical in EPP, I think clinical trials in XP would be even more unethical, since a randomized placebo controlled trial would cause cancerous lesions and great pain among the patients in the placebo arm."

When there is no effective treatment for a condition, a placebo is completely ethical to use as you still need to determine if the new intervention is effective so in this case, the placebo represents current best-practice treatment. There have been some cases where these sort of clinical trials have been shown to be so effective mid-trial that they were stopped as to continue on with a placebo group would be unethical. If there was already a drug treatment then this would be the standard of care for the placebo group (so they would still get a dummy implant) that Scenesse would be compared to. This is called a comparator study. If the current treatment was withheld this would be unethical and likely never approved by an ethics board.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 04:45 PM


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Yes, the only growth has been in the 1-1,000 group so lots of retail small investors mopping up the crumbs from the bigger holders
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 10:35 AM


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"On 31 May, the FDA used its discretionary tool to request a three month extension to the formal review user fee goal date, providing a new target date 6 October. We assessed the delay as a positive measure, since the Agency had had ample opportunity to reject the submission, issue a Refusal to File or even request a withdrawal. None of the events had occurred during our submission or review, and our teams kept working towards satisfying all outstanding questions from the agency."
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 10:50 AM


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Newsletter out. I didn't realise they started issuing German communiques in May 2019 to cater for the large investment community there 👍👍


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 237.01K ) Number of downloads: 243

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 03:13 PM


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You can always view short data yourself here https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cuv

Went down 0.22 percentage points to now 5.58% for Thursday of last week when there were 160k gross shorts for the day so much more closing of open positions going on rather than opening new positions. Interesting the gross shorts really dropped off yesterday - down to 24k. So i'm seeing a very slow unwinding of shorts overall so SP drop probably more influenced by profit-taking I'd say - that's healthy..
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 10:00 AM


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Try shorters, profit-takers (good luck to anyone that has cashed some in after such a long wait) and despite all the promo and exposure post FDA decision, people probably look at CUV without the in-depth understanding that most of us have and all they see is an expensive company (based on P/E) with a single drug and a tiny patient population so they haven't bought in..
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 04:40 AM


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For the benefit of our overseas readers, the two recent interviews posted with Alan Kohler and Tom Pretosky are big 'known names' to the general public. These two guys have very high media profiles as they do daily financial reports on several of the main TV networks so PW has clearly come 'out of the shadows' and is shouting the CUV story to anyone and everyone. Please correct me too, but I believe Alan's Eureka report is one of the biggest subscription services around.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 01:45 PM


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CommSec's Tom Petrosky interviews PW - can't fault him for the promo work he's doing post-approval.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39O8oxM1Cn8
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 12:09 PM


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Posts: 910

Short positions are in for Wednesday last week and there was a change of just a decrease of 0.03 percentage points (14k shares) to 5.8%. So any closing out (at likely a big loss) was offset by opening new positions. Rinse and repeat until the magic pudding runs out of pudding.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 10:37 AM


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Fourth day in a row of >100k gross shorts. We'll find out this afternoon if there was a net opening or closing of shorts on decision day last Wednesday.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 08:33 AM


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He agreed earlier this year to stay on as chair when already was ready to retire in order to see if through until FDA approval. The job is done and this will be his last AGM and then pass the baton on to his successor soon after. I wish him well. Sobering to read how close it was to curtains in the early 2000s as bankruptcy loomed. I would have lost maybe $50k at the time which would have been painful, but I would have moved on. Out of the ashes here we are today and I've just bought a new BMW on the weekend thanks to CUV with 'just enough left over' to buy a couple of houses.....
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 04:40 AM


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I think they had a hand too in helping Eliud Kipchoge break the 2 hour marathon barrier on the weekend - he used to be white 😂
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 14 2019, 02:53 PM


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But charting doesn't tell you if there was a legitimate reason for the gap in the first place - a binary event of FDA approval causing a major SP spike is a major rerating event of this company
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 14 2019, 11:09 AM


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On balance, shorting is a zero-sum game as the selling will always be offset by the buying. You can argue that going long is also a zero-sum game, but with the big difference that timeframes for going long can be years (if not decades for many of us here!) whereas shorting is certainly a short-term game. So what happens between the two sides of the transaction of either short or long is a combination of fundamentals and some degree of irrationality/psychology (hype pushing up the SP and FUD pushing it down) and a dash of manipulation too. You'd only short then if you believe the SP overall was on the way down because of the belief it was overpriced and/or bad news was likely or you want to trigger a sell off, The shorters have FUed up all of these as the fundamentals have been franked by the FDA decision and I see little evidence of the shorting causing a panic pile-in of selling to create the SP direction the shorters need. I mean seriously, those of the many of us here that have been in for many years have seen the terrible times and are now sitting on multi-bagger profits - yeah right, as if any of us would be having sleepless nights if the SP were to drop 20%, 30 or even 40% from shorters. The fundamentals are going to steamroll them every time like it has with the FDA decision but they're yet to line up to take their medicine and close out.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 13 2019, 12:22 PM


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Yes, if an acquiring company got enough shares in a hostile bid, they could steer the board, but unless they get >90% of shares then they can't acquire the company. As it is now the board have a blocking stake in any takeover attempt and even if they were ousted, that blocking stake is still there.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 04:20 AM


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Regarding takeovers, no matter how hostile the bid, it has no chance of occurring unless the directors agree to it as collectively they own over 10% of the shares and in order to compulsorily acquire all shares in a company, a bidder must amass greater than 90% of shares from agreeable shareholders before they are able to mop up the rest of them compulsorily. I have no idea what price PW would take, but pretty safe bet it would be 3 digits.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 12:36 PM


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Whoa. As they say: "You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out." And the CUV tide is strong so being naked means it's easier to be screwed.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 12:07 PM


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Posts: 910

And there you have it, shorts back up 2.65 percentage points on Friday, Oct 4 to be back at 5.77% (2.8 M shares). Same thing for NEA so it's some accounting quirk in reconciling the open shorts for these shares that are being algo shorted based on TA rather than fundamentals. It's great news to be at ATHs with little change in the open short positions and likely not much change from yesterday based on the gross data. The squeeze is coming...
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 10:32 AM


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Only 106k gross shorts yesterday
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 04:55 AM


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Still waiting for it to appear on the approved list of drugs so we can sift through the entrails of all the juicy approval docs

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder...sSearch.process
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 02:31 AM


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I'm calling that short data showing a fall of 2.74 percentage points a data blip error as occurred the same for NEA (the other share the TA algo short traders have been playing with) on the same day and also for both shares on Aug 13. Please take note that the data is 4 trading days old and applies to October 3 so has no relevance to the trading that happened yesterday. That is why the data can't be correct as no way could 1.3 M shorts have closed out on Oct 3 which was a day where 366k shares traded on the market and the SP didn't do much. I'm expecting it to probably bounce back to ~6% tomorrow. Next Tuesday though we'll get the data for short positions as it applied to yesterday's trading and would certainly be expecting to see a decent fall, but the shorters still have some way to go to close out - God bless them all.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 04:04 PM


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Division of Dermatology assessment team decision was unanimous. Will be the same team assessing the vitiligo indication.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 03:56 PM


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I noted that as being his very last remark before going into Qs - appreciated PW
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 12:08 PM


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Looks like another data blip error or the like on the shorts as showed a 2.74 percentage point fall for October 3! NEA showed the same data blip.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 09:04 AM


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Indicative open is at $40 - will be a massive day
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 08:48 AM


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And here's the news from CUV. I'll see you all on the teleconference!


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 151.07K ) Number of downloads: 87

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 07:40 AM


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$30.10 atm, but very little buy and sell volume
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 03:54 AM


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CLVLF up 26% to USD 23.25 which is AUD 34.54. How would it feel to be holding 2.9 M of open shorts right now?
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 03:40 AM


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Callback to our famous former Prime Minister Bob Hawke on when Australia won the America's Cup in 1983

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8mdHO2_Zo8
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 03:30 AM


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Just to make it official, here's the news on the FDA website

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-annou...s-rare-disorder
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 03:20 AM


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Congratulations to the entire CUV team - we've had our criticism of many things you've done over the years, but getting this to FDA approval from the ashes of where it was in the mid 2000s is a true testament to the work and dedication of you all.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 02:36 AM


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ASX rules are that THs can only be in place for a maximum of 2 trading days so they all read like this to give the company the full 2 days or until they make an announcement.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 02:09 AM


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Posts: 910

It's 3 am here in Melbourne and just woke up and no way am getting back to sleep so here joining the 'Night's Watch'. I'm only a 10-minute drive from the head office at this time of the night - wonder if I should make the trip in to see if the lights are on 😂 Good luck to us all
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 05:50 PM


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Thanks for that update as there was trading volume going through after the TH announcement came through so seems it's shut down now.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 05:17 PM


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So we didn't get the nice T-30 days SP run-up though we can thank the shorters for this. What is of interest from this graph is the SP action in the few days before a PDUFA decision. A nice spike up on average in the days prior to when a positive decision comes and a steep spike down on average in the days before bad news hits. The last three days have been very green so taking that as a good omen.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 05:06 PM


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Posts: 910

Only the ASX - it's trading in Germany right this second. In this instance though news on the outcome will likely be released after the close of the US market so no other borse will get the jump on the news as ASX trading should be happening some time tomorrow once CUV get their announcement typed up.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 07:14 AM


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Posts: 910

If you put a sell limit at $45 then that is the lowest price that a trade would go through at. If the shares came out of a TH where the SP was below $45 prior to it, then the order would be triggered if the opening single price auction was above $45 at the actual opening price. As for selling any shares if approval comes through, I'll see what the SP action is like but like many here, I believe it will be some months before the price starts to ramp up notwithstanding any single day price spike on approval day.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 7 2019, 12:29 PM


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Posts: 910

Here's the list of the worth of the top 20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes%27_lis...s#2018_rankings so if you wanted Newcastle United @ USD381M (AUD654) then based on PWs shares - say he has 4M (correct me if I'm wrong as can't be bothered looking it up) then would be a SP of AUD 141. He probably wants a Dutch team so SP well below that then.
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 7 2019, 09:19 AM


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So if you knew a negative outcome was coming would you ink a new contract for more years of grind ahead? Or if you knew a positive outcome was coming, sign a new deal so you can build the company and SP further to get your football team in 3 years?
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 7 2019, 08:04 AM


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Let's hope we'll be singing this on Wednesday

Hallelujah
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 7 2019, 07:31 AM


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The Week Ahead In Biotech: Pfenex And Clinuvel On The Radar Ahead of FDA Decisions, 2 IPOs On Deck

https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/19...-2-ipos-on-deck
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 5 2019, 04:56 AM


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CUV hits the mainstream - now features in university chemistry assignments

https://www.chegg.com/homework-help/questio...pepud-q40576203
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 09:46 AM


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FDA 'miscommunicated' the PDUFA date - should have been 8 October which aligns with a 3-month extension from the prior date of July 8. I guess if this error was just picked up at the 11th hour could make the assumption the decision will be coming through on the 8th. This time next week we will know.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 131.25K ) Number of downloads: 160

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Oct 1 2019, 06:49 PM


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"Why are so many germans invested in Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals?"

Spoiler alert: Answer is Florian Homm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlj1L1HSrxU
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 03:49 PM


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AGM announced for Wednesday 20 November, 10 am @ The Events Centre at Collins Square, Tower 2, Level 5, 727 Collins Street. Let's hope it's a party mood for all attending. It hopefully will be Stan's last AGM so am sure he'll go out with a bang with the jokes.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 109.71K ) Number of downloads: 85

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 08:17 AM


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Posts: 910

If approval comes through, I was planning on selling a modest parcel of ~20k shares, but have now changed those plans and will hold through because....shorters - want to see them squeezed to an inch of their life to learn them a lesson good. I encourage you all to join in a selling strike if we get approval! 😂
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 29 2019, 07:24 PM


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Posts: 910

June 2003 was when i first bought into CUV (Epitan as it was back then) and picked up 5,000 shares @ $3.40 (consolidation adjusted). Since that time I've made 27 more purchases over the interceeding 16 years. It has been quite the journey as I find myself in possession of far more shares than I could have ever imagined all 'thanks' to the excruciating delays and long time frames that things have happened in which I hope to look back on as a blessing in a bit under a week. This board has maintained my sanity and served as one of the most valuable resources (and support groups) I've known. Good to luck to everyone as we wait to get the news we wish for hopefully in the early hours of Saturday morning Australian time.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 04:03 PM


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The 1.82% is the sum total of the % Capital Shorted column which is not correct as the data is non-aggregate and the timeframe is arbitrary - you could do it back for the last year or 5 years or whatever time you like and get a huge number
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 27 2019, 03:48 PM


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There is no mismatch - the data that matters is the open short positions which trail by 4 days. It looks like you've just added up the gross short column and the % capital shorted over the arbitrary time frame back to 30 August which is not how it is done as you don't just add all this data together cumulatively. Gross shorts give a rough guide to the day's trading as there could be multiple open and closing of positions.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 25 2019, 01:13 PM


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And the shorts shoot up to 6.15% (3.01 M shares) as of Thursday of last week. This was the day where there were 160k shares traded on the opening bell and 476k for the day.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 23 2019, 02:46 PM


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When you're short, the maximum profit you can make is your initial investment from selling the shares (minus the shorting loan fee) if the company were to go belly up (so don't need to repurchase the shares) while your maximum losses are unlimited. It is not a long-term strategy.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 23 2019, 02:15 PM


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Posts: 910

Yes and as I write this, CUV is down 3.68% and NEA down 3.56% on a slightly green day for the market. It's TA shorting all the way - they probably have no idea what PDUFA even stands for.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 23 2019, 01:17 PM


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Posts: 910

Look no further than the shorters to explain all this as the open shorts hit a new all-time high of 5.94% (2.906M shares) as of Tuesday of last week.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 21 2019, 05:26 AM


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Posts: 910

If the shorter is betting on a CRL then good luck to them as nothing is 100% certain, but they're certainly not doing it based on any privileged information as the shorting has been going on for 2 months yet we had a director buying only a few weeks ago. Of course, a director could not buy if they were in receipt of privileged information on a likely approval and equally could not sell if they knew a CRL was on the cards, but they could choose 'not to buy' if they had information of a likely CRL
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 21 2019, 05:02 AM


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Posts: 910

Yes, that's my understanding as Vyleesi had a PDUFA date that fell on a Sunday, but the outcome was released to the market COB on the Friday before.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 19 2019, 10:06 AM


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168k shares traded on the opening bell 😮
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 04:50 PM


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One word: arbitrage. Companies trading on multiple exchanges will always be close in price (so long as sufficient trading volume) as any drift from this opens up an arbitrage opportunity which markets players will seize on for a quick profit which restores the market balance.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 18 2019, 09:44 AM


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Posts: 910

Hoping that the worm has finally turned


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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 13 2019, 03:41 PM


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It's shorting driven by technical analysis mostly in my eyes. TA though isn't going to tell you if the FDA decision is going to be yay or nay as the shorting has been happening since early July so there is really little chance of somehow 'inside' knowledge of a pre-ordained negative decision. I think the shorters have gay abandon for the PDUFA date which consensus here seems to be much better odds than 50:50 for approval so is playing with fire and I for one will rejoice in the pain inflicted on the shorters if they are still open if a positive decision comes in.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 12 2019, 04:34 PM


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Posts: 910

Shorters only 'wreck' a company if they cause a pile on in selling from actual holders of the stock and I don't see much evidence of that happening. Every short MUST be closed out by buying back in again so there is a lot of buying demand now in the wings so everything that happens in between is mostly about the fundamentals.
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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 10 2019, 11:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Here are the 12 month short and SP graphs for CUV and NEA - try to spot the difference.


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Verharven
Posted on: Sep 4 2019, 08:18 AM


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Posts: 910

Where has all the buy and sell volume gone???


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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 28 2019, 02:52 PM


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Posts: 910

First daily fall in net shorts since July 12 (not counting the clearly data blip error from Aug 13 of a near 2.5 percentage point fall). The rise in shorts over this time has been far steeper than the decline in the share price.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 28 2019, 01:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

So they had to reissue the financial report because they forgot to add the independent auditor's declaration. They're also yet to pick up that they stuffed up something as simple as giving a record and ex date for the dividend. Record date is given as Thursday 5 Sep with the ex date of 17 Sep! To start with, ex dates are one trading day BEFORE a record date so no idea how on earth they came up with this. Two very embarrassing amateur errors.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Last year, preliminary financial results and dividend announced Wednesday, August 29. The year before it was Wednesday, August 30 so expecting this mid next week. I'm going for a $0.05 divvy
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 20 2019, 03:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

As for shorts...next minute, we're back up at 5.46%!! And noted NEA also jumped as well to be just above where it was two trading days before so it's technical games being played.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 19 2019, 01:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Showing how meaningless really daily gross shorts data is, open short positions just fell from 5.22% to 2.76% as of August 13 when gross shorts for that day were 78k.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 14 2019, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Yes, shorts just ticked over the 5% mark today (as of August 8 - 5.01%) and there hasn't been a day decline in short positions since July 12 when they were at 2%. The SP weathered the first 2-3 weeks of it, but not so the last 1-2 weeks.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 14 2019, 08:59 AM


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Posts: 910

And we're set for another day with a spike in the SP on open (currently predicted at $28.49 with excess buy volume) likely only to be ground down over the course of the day by shorters. This game of musical chairs can only be played for so long and the end of the song is approaching.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 13 2019, 05:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

An update from MinusSinus

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284940-ta...ation?dr=1#alt2


Clinuvel Has More Aces Up Their Sleeves - A Monte Carlo Valuation

Summary

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals is waiting to get an FDA response for the first treatment of EPP patients in the US by Oct. 2019.

The stock has risen significantly from the anemic trading during the last decade, but is the stock price still covered by the underlying business value?

A Monte Carlo analysis over the three applications of EPP, VP, and Vitiligo shows a median fair value of 32.5 USD/share, with the 10-90% confidence interval being 20-62 USD/share.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 13 2019, 05:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

The Homm effect? Germany went a little crazy last night with high volume and close of EUR 17.30 (AUD 28.73) even peaking at EUR 17.79 (AUD 29.54)
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 8 2019, 03:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Just adding to the recent posts - I topped up on Tuesday and so too have a few family members who have been in it for some time. Think it's a great price now to buy-in for where we are at - global markets will do what global markets do.
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 5 2019, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

If it makes things any better, the biotech peers to CUV of PME and NAN are down a similar amount today
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Verharven
Posted on: Aug 5 2019, 01:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Something I've posted before is the graph below taken from the thesis here It's 35-45 days pre-decision date that the SP ramp-up begins so hopefully CUV will follow this trend. If you were a shorter you should be aware of this timeline to be looking at closing out by then unless you were uber-confident of a negative decision, but if so you'd be nuts to short now - just do it before the decision when the SP should be at its potential highest and then reap the reward of the SP crash soon after.


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Verharven
Posted on: Jul 31 2019, 09:22 AM


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Posts: 910

Quarterly out: $13.0 M in receipts and $54M in the bank smile.gif


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 450.98K ) Number of downloads: 166

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Jul 12 2019, 12:20 PM


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Posts: 910

I've posted before that CUV and NEA have been tracking each other quite closely the last few months (apart from when NEA got the ASX200 inclusion bump earlier for its out-of-cycle addition) and today NEA is down over 7% so seems technical trading with the new ASX200 entrants rather than any fundamentals.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jul 10 2019, 01:15 PM


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Posts: 910

ASX200 stocks sorted by 1-year price change. Things aren't too bad are they.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 29 2019, 09:24 AM


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Posts: 910

No, Vyleesi is given subcutaneously just like botox which can also be given intramuscularly with similar efficacy. Scenesse is given as an implant subcutaneously though is a bit more of an involved procedure than a simple injection
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 02:31 PM


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Posts: 910

More like snorting it tongue.gif
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 26 2019, 06:23 AM


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Posts: 910

Just something I've noticed recently and the 6-month graph below confirms it, is that CUV and Nearmap have had a very similar story over the last 12 months. They're both the best 1-year performing stocks on the ASX200 - up over 200% and apart from the SP bump that NEA got earlier from being added to the ASX200 on April 15 from MYO being removed, they track closely. Note the downturn they've both experienced in recent days so could indicate TA traders are having a say in both.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 25 2019, 05:46 AM


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Posts: 910

I think he was more coming from the reality that an injection mode of delivery will be much less popular/saleable than a pill so this will affect take up. I agree with his views on efficacy now I've looked more closely at the trial results plus there is the established competitor on the market too which is in pill form.

Agree with other comments that we're probably in for a period of SP flat line/dipping for a while as we bob along without many big price drivers and the SP seems reasonably priced now based on future EU earnings and a bit of FDA speculation. But it is great to know that there has been all this short action absorbed into the SP so that will be a nice buffer if the SP drops further and the shorts close out.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 24 2019, 01:02 PM


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Posts: 910

Just looked at Shortman: there were 615k gross shorts on Friday so that explains a lot of the extra volume that went through. Shorters gonna short - worked out so well for them over the last few months tongue.gif
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 06:48 PM


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Posts: 910

Top marks to the SPDR ASX200 ETF fund - already updated their holdings. They picked up 96,817 shares. Where the hell did all the other shares go as the SPDR fund is one of the big ETFs???

https://www.spdrs.com.au/etf/fund/spdr-sp-a...0-fund-STW.html
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 10:46 AM


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Posts: 910

When Viagra was launched in the US market, half a million scripts were written in the first month. When Addyi was launched in October 2015, it was only prescribed to a little over 200 patients in the first month. By February 2016, the total number of scripts written was less than 4,000. Can't find current data, but clearly, a blockbuster this drug ain't nor will Vyleesi be either so PTN investors seem to have got a little bit 'over excited' (see what I did there) by approval or have an eye to future indications.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 10:14 AM


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Posts: 910

Hmm, perhaps, but there is already a drug on the market to treat pre-menopausal HSDD - Addyi (flibanserin). Addyi increases the number of satisfying sexual events per month by about one half over placebo. Compare that to Vyleesi which did not change the number of satisfying sexual events compared to placebo. Addyi also seems to have less side-effects and contraindications for its use.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 08:55 AM


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Posts: 910

Makes CUV's marketing a walk in the park. An extremely well-defined, small and accessible population just about all of who will know about the only effective treatment so far for EPP. PTN are going to have to invest big in marketing to get the word out just to tip enough doctors over that they'll prescribe it.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 08:27 AM


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Posts: 910

These are far from impressive results - a very small increase in self-reported sexual desire in ONLY 25% of women compared to 17% that also saw a benefit in the placebo group?! And look at the decrease in distress scores - hardly any difference in the drug vs placebo in % of women that saw a drop?! This is great though if this is the benchmark of efficacy that the FDA uses. They only would have got these as significant differences because of the large sample size so while statistically significant, the overall benefit across a population is small.

"The effectiveness and safety of Vyleesi were studied in two 24-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials in 1,247 premenopausal women with acquired, generalized HSDD. Most patients used Vyleesi two or three times per month and no more than once a week. In these trials, about 25% of patients treated with Vyleesi had an increase of 1.2 or more in their sexual desire score (scored on a range of 1.2 to 6.0, with higher scores indicating greater sexual desire) compared to about 17% of those who took placebo. Additionally, about 35% of the patients treated with Vyleesi had a decrease of one or more in their distress score "(scored on a range of zero to four, with higher scores indicating greater distress from low sexual desire) compared to about 31% of those who took placebo."
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 07:49 AM


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Posts: 910

I wouldn't describe it a 'useless' drug. Hypoactive sexual desire in women can cause personal distress and relationship problems so can affect quality of life. Kinda like the long-term psychological and quality of life problems that arise from not being able to go out and enjoy the world during daylight hours...
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 06:15 AM


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Posts: 910

So feel for the UK EPP sufferers for how this has dragged on - all starting with NICE 'misclassifying' the approval track to start wtih and not giving it HST status off the bat - so much time wasted from that. I can't fault CUV though for how aggressively they've fought this every step of the way. At least a negative decision is already priced into the SP.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 22 2019, 06:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

So with the ASX200 speculation behind us and with a PDUFA date still over 3 months away, what's there to fill in the void?

1. The next quarterly end of Jully (I am projecting ~$15M in receipts)
2. Getting overdue for news on the NICE re-assessment decision
3. Dividend. Sure, it was only $0.02 ps (~$1M) last year, but they've set the precedent and cash has only grown in the bank since then. Maybe they'll go crazy and double it to $0.04

Anything else? I can't see NASDAQ happening until after a FDA decision (that is positive) as they won't be running new trials to pursue new indications there unless they know the drug is looked upon favourably so hard to sell the story to the US market without that.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 04:11 PM


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Posts: 910

Close @ $38.55 with a volume of 1.86M so that was 1.4M after the close.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

1.7M on the buy side, 1.7M on the sell side. Indicative price of $38.79
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

And here come the ETFs...



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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 03:59 PM


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Posts: 910

1 minute to close and the buy volume just doubled to 272k
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 02:23 PM


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Posts: 910

Bit of a mid-arvo frenzy happening - real on market buying, no more bots. What will 4pm bring...


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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 21 2019, 11:51 AM


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Posts: 910

Clinuvel moves digs to Level 11, 535 Bourke St (only 650 metres by foot from their prior Queen St offices). Hopefully, because they needed more space... Nicer part of the world though.

If you look here on Google Stree View, you can see PW's moto out the front decked in CUV colours,

https://www.google.com/maps/place/535+Bourk...3;4d144.9580248


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Announcements.pdf ( 109.27K ) Number of downloads: 72

 
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Because the clinical trials need to 'prove' it helps lower the risk of skin cancer would take years, if not decades to do. And as for a 'sunscreen' replacement, that isn't going to fly at this stage for something that requires a surgical intervention to administer. This is all future gazing when topicals make it into development.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 08:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Astaxanthin does have an effect on reducing UV damage so that a person taking it can tolerate a higher 'dose' of sun before a sunburn occurs, but certainly not in the same league as sunscreen. Following is one of the first clinical trials in this area, and you can find anecdotes online of fair skin people taking it reporting that they can be out in the sun longer without getting burnt. Pretty confident it isn't much of a benefit for EPP else the community would have been on to it years ago seeing as a bottle costs a few dollars and is OTC. Fun fact: flamingos are born white, but turn pink as they develop from eating algae that make astaxanthin. Another fun fact: salmon is naturally white, but becomes pink/red from all the krill it eats which, as you may guess, is full of astaxanthin.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6073124/

The Protective Role of Astaxanthin for UV-Induced Skin Deterioration in Healthy People—A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

Skin is a major safeguard tissue in humans. Because biological barrier function is deteriorated by several kinds of stresses including exposure to ultra-violet (UV) rays, the protection and treatment of skin conditions by dietary supplements are important. We therefore evaluated the effects of dietary supplementation with an algal food-derived antioxidant, astaxanthin, on UV-induced skin deterioration. Twenty-three healthy Japanese participants were recruited to a 10-week double-blind placebo-controlled study. They were assigned to the astaxanthin group supplemented with a capsule containing 4 mg of astaxanthin or the placebo group. To assess the protective role of astaxanthin for UV-induced skin deterioration, we determined the minimal erythema dose (MED) and analyzed UV-induced changes of moisture and transepidermal water loss (TEWL) at baseline and after 9 weeks of supplementation. Subjective skin conditions were assessed by the visual analog scale. The astaxanthin group showed increased MED compared with placebo. In addition, the astaxanthin group had a reduced loss of skin moisture in the irradiated area compared with placebo. Subjective skin conditions for “improvement of rough skin” and “texture” in non-irradiated areas were significantly improved by astaxanthin. Astaxanthin seems protective against UV-induced skin deterioration and helps maintain healthy skin in healthy people.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 19 2019, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Spot on. The biggest SP killer I've seen in recent times is CUV's newsletters - if you haven't got something clear and unambiguous to say, then don't say anything at all. I pray that Stan and PW STFU until October 6.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 19 2019, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

It's good volume, but my screen shows me it is 'only' double the average last 3-month volume so has been building for some time.
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 02:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

So the index ETFs stay true to their mission and buy and sell at the rebalance and play it by the numbers, so unless a large holder/insto steps in as an opportunity to off-load, where are these needed shares going to come from on Friday? Hint: not mine. Could be the greenest of green days on Friday....
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Verharven
Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 910

Here you go. I like the look of the sell depth


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