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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
Mags
post Posted: Sep 9 2020, 09:19 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 4 2020, 10:58 PM

QUOTE
I don't know why they would stop at a mere $800 billion, why not just sell the lot while they can get something useful for it.


'Cos (IMO) we've got about a decade left of this non-sense, MMT, fiat, fractional reserve, Federal Reserve Saves All, BS system.
And in the mean time, like it or not, USA is still the largest, most open, transparent capital market in the world. Something the 'current' China will never achieve.
A USA treasury is like fertilizer: You know what it is, you know where it come from, you know how it stinks, but it serves a purpose and has use.



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 4 2020, 10:58 PM
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Another salvo in the undeclared US/Sino war.
From Zero hedge
QUOTE
Ever since the early stages of the US-China trade/tech/virus/cold war four years ago, there were frequent rumors - which eventually gave way to increasingly legitimate chatter - that China was looking to go full "nuclear option" by selling some or all of its $1+ trillion of US Treasury securities, which incidentally has not been too far off the mark: as the chart below shows, after peaking in 2013, Chinese holdings of US debt have been steadily declining (and not so steadily in the aftermath of the Chinese devaluation), and are currently near the lowest level in 8 years.
In any case, while Beijing has been gradually reducing its Treasury holdings it has never shocked the market with a major liquidation; and yet this ultimate threat has now found its way into China's premier state-run English language news source Global Times.

And while not official policy, the fact that GT on Thursday has made a US Treasury dump front page news, citing top "state-linked experts", is cause for concern (and certainly suggests that the Fed may soon have to step in with another massive QE to purchase whatever China has to sell).
he Beijing-backed publication writes today that "China may gradually reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to about $800 billion from the current level of more than $1 trillion, as the ballooning US federal deficit increases default risks and the Trump administration continues its blistering attack on China" citing unnamed experts.

The facts are familiar to anyone who has been following the Sino-US trade war amid the US descent into fiscal hell, which as we noted earlier this week will result in the US budget deficit hitting a record $3.3 trillion and a record 107% debt/GDP in just 2-3 years: as the Global Times reviews, in the first six months of this year alone the world's second-largest holder of US debts dumped some $106 billion worth of US Treasury bonds (annualized), and is looking to continue trimming its holdings "systematically" - the publication states.

A key reason stated for the liquidation is that China is anxious over risks associated with the surging debt level in the US, which is expected to actually exceed the size of the economy in 2021, which would be a first since the end of World War II. What's worse is that as the CBO has shown, what happens over the next 3 decades is even more insane.

I don't know why they would stop at a mere $800 billion, why not just sell the lot while they can get something useful for it.



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plastic
post Posted: Sep 4 2020, 02:33 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 3 2020, 09:21 AM

Do you think the ASX' days are numbered as a result?

ISX is having a good go at bringing them to account.

If a complete legislative restructuring of the ASX with proper power transfers doesn't happen then an alternative market isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Monetary policy observers will have seen the power transfer away from the Fed and other central banks. Its not inconceivable for such things to happen in the stock markets.

Its as if the power base of every miscreant in the world that have derived all their power and influence from the market are being put upon for some reason.
It is the end of the neocon and free market doctrine. Or capitalism as we know it.



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 3 2020, 09:21 AM
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In another nail in the coffin of the US financial system, the SEC has given the go ahead for the biggest bunch of financial thieves and liars on the planet to open their own stock exchange.
From Wall Street on Parade
QUOTE
Members Exchange (MEMX), a brand new stock exchange, has announced that it will begin live trading of select stocks for the first time on September 21 with a full phase-in on September 29.

Criminal histories are, apparently, no barrier to running a stock exchange in the United States to the deeply conflicted way of thinking of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which issued its approval to operate the exchange on May 5.

Investors in the new stock exchange are some of the most serially-charged Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, along with the hedge fund, Citadel Securities. BlackRock, which is up to its neck in the Federal Reserveís deeply conflicted bailout programs, is also an investor, as is the high-frequency trading firm, Virtu Financial, and others.


Should make it much easier for them to manipulate the market to their own ends.
Sheesh, the rich get richer, screw the rest,
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 1 2020, 04:32 PM
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In Reply To: rlane's post @ Sep 1 2020, 03:53 PM

A bit before its time? Prescient maybe?
Nah,
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Mick



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rlane
post Posted: Sep 1 2020, 03:53 PM
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In Reply To: balance's post @ Sep 1 2020, 03:08 PM

Polls
Humphrey at it again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

 

Featured Stock Stories





balance
post Posted: Sep 1 2020, 03:08 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Aug 31 2020, 07:32 PM

Not news to you Mark but worth posting.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/white-house...panel-says.html

and https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-column...delusional.html



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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

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tombeet
post Posted: Sep 1 2020, 02:11 PM
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In Reply To: rog's post @ Sep 1 2020, 02:03 PM

What a shame entertainment is more important than peoples lives?

Tom.


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rog
post Posted: Sep 1 2020, 02:03 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Aug 31 2020, 07:32 PM

Yes but lies (alternative facts, junk science, conspiracy theories etc etc) have become an acceptable diversion to a more rational political discourse - lifeís too confronting and complicated and Trump is entertaining and thatís what they want



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kahuna1
post Posted: Aug 31 2020, 07:32 PM
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Sigh ...

The GOP convention was an absurd joke. Virtually every speech total lies.

Testing via CDC has stopped .... seriously.

Trump is encouraging white militant groups with guns to confront people protesting over black people gunned down ... the latest shot 8 times and he had no GUN.

Meanwhile the USA stock market hits all time highs, 30 million about to be evicted unable to pay rent and 20 million in distress on their mortgage and likely to face the same.

The only really important things of the last week is the question about re infection .... is NO longer a question. Yes you can get it again and having had it once DOES NOT make the next case less worse. Well documented and scientific study now on this issue.

NOT A GOOD THING.

Market USA side still goes up and at say 1,000 a day they report, likely much higher ... no doubt much higher is that 500,000 excess deaths in a year ?

please pass the cool aid filled with bleach.

On the vaccine front ... scary stuff Trump is doing at the FDA in the USA and CDC. Be very very very afraid !!

Not just cutting corners .... but deliberately so and releasing a vaccine that's approved prior to it being safe is even ore insane than what is going on.
Hard actually to get there given the stuff that is now normal under an openly racist president who is running a kleptocracy for the rich.

ON the vaccine side, Moderna and its JOKE trial which sent 13% to hospital ... it gets worse. The vaccine which is unlikely to work for any length of time due to what is now becoming clear this virus ... and its antibodies disappear post 90 days . ... Moderna's vaccine it now turns out needs to be stored at minus 4 F .... about minus 20 C . This is WAY colder than even a decent freezer that is at minus 14C so it will need to be stored and transported and administered in a very very controlled environment because if it gets warmer .... it goes off.

Wait wait .... this joke is ... worse. Pfizer and its vaccine, it needs to be stored at minus 90F or Minus 67.8 C which is virtually impossible without a custom built freezer. It again goes off and rapidly and likely for both you need 2 shots to maybe, maybe be protected for 6 months.

Its BAD and in fact worst case stuff.

The USA market ... and delusional belief they have beaten this and done a good job is astounding.

Delusional American Exceptionalism at its worst.

Either you try and control it a bit, contain it a bit and contact trace, or for the USA you accept 500,000 plus avoidable deaths a year.
Australia say 40,000.

then we have 3 times that number with shredded lungs or grey voids in their brains .... brain fog like Alzheimer's and heart and kidney and liver issues for the rest of their life.
Bliss.
I am sure, over time ... a cure or better way of dealing with it will be found but its going to take time.
The delusional gap between the USA index's and day trading idiots and the overall rest of the world ... is insane. Our market, somewhat less idiotic, if one took out FMG via iron ore rallies and then just silly ones on the tech side and some retailers who reported not so great results but are up 25% ...
Our market is not that far away from 5,000 verses the 6,000 headline.

USA side, much the same .... take out the techs and its a grim picture.

Still unable to come up with any idea on valuation for a lot of stocks. Banks in particular. What happens with another 12 or 24 months of this ? Government support will and is being reduced over time. That said it will be a long time till say overseas travel or visitors return. How Qantas is where it is or such things as Casinos are where they are astounds me.

Time and patience is on the side of just waiting.

In the meantime another 60 days of stupidity game show antics. I thought I saw 1,000 older Americans at the White house at a Trump rally without masks for 99% of them and no social distancing whilst chanting USA ... USA .... USA ...

Must be this bad dream 2020 has been a D grade movie with a racist dictator running things.

Stay cool and safe

Mark



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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