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MP1, MEGAPORT LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Sep 11 2020, 03:03 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 14 2020, 03:02 PM

they seem to like this one. Now it is in the 200
QUOTE
Matthew Kidman (Livewire Markets): Okay. Let's jump into an area you know well. Data centres, the cloud, Megaport, appropriate name. Taking on the world in that area. Buy, hold or sell?

Gary Rollo (Montgomery): Megaport is a buy. Look, this company has an interesting proposition, not just here in Australia, but globally. And, as the name suggests, it is solving a problem that was not around yesterday. Corporate computing networks were designed for the old age. In the new world of cloud, you don't know what you've got to connect to and when. Megaport solves that problem, and it solves it in an elegant way. It has got a huge addressable market. And for us, that is one of the most interesting tech stories on the ASX and globally today.

Matthew Kidman: Megaport: mega by name, mega by price. Went up about 120 per cent since the [March] bottom. Chris, buy, hold or sell?

Chris Stott (1851 Capital): Sell. So, really good company, Matthew, but the valuation is incredibly stretched to us. 26 times revenue, yet to be positive in terms of from an EBITDA perspective. So, we think it has certainly had a strong run, as you mentioned, off the lows in March. So, sell.





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE
Livewire Markets :One company that's had a bit of a breather in its share price run is Megaport. Buy, hold, sell?

Tobias Yao (WAM) (Hold): Megaport is a hold for us. We really like the business long-term. It's a leader in its niche. It's about two to three times larger than the next competitor. It's exposed to cloud adoption and it's helping businesses connect to their cloud service providers. It's a hold for us purely because we're looking for a better entry point.

.
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Livewire Markets: Okay. It's all about the cloud. Buy, hold, sell on Megaport?

Arden Jennings (Ausbil) (Buy): Yeah, it's a buy for us, Vishal. High conviction position within our smaller micro-cap funds. Megaport, as Tobias pointed out, is really exposed to the adoption of the cloud. And Megaport's providing network as a service, connecting up cloud technologies amongst various data centres globally. So if there's one chart that I could point our listeners to, it would be the customer cohort chart they produce annually in their results. And it demonstrates that the customers love Megaport's product and that's shown in the adoption of their services and also the monthly revenue that they're receiving per port. And it's backed by great management and Bevan Slattery as founder is still on the board and still a significant shareholder. So we see the pullback in the share price as definitely an opportunity. And I think this is one where you can let your winners run.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 17 2020, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE
Livewire Markets: Okay, Megaport, one of the new kids on the block in the Australian technology scene. Buy, hold, or sell?

Jun Bei Liu (Tribeca): It is a buy. I like Megaport because Megaport is probably the only cloud infrastructure company that you can find in this market. Yes, there is NEXTDC but NEXTDC is the future, essentially the future property trust. They build assets for companies to use and so that is more cloud-related and demand for that type of product is going through the roof and COVID certainly has speeded up that kind of adoption.

Now, Megaport is the future Telstra and it has innovated that space and it is global. It is the largest in its sector because it is the innovator and it has got enough runway for it to continue to expand global dominance. For me, it is one of the rare exposure to that space in the Australian market.


QUOTE
Livewire Markets: Okay. Eleanor, moving to the cloud, it has been one of the major trends in the structural shifts that we have seen accelerate through the past few months. Buy, hold, or sell on Megaport?

Eleanor Swanson (Firetrail): Jun Bei, I promise I'm not copying you but I am a buyer on Megaport as well. What the company does is they facilitate the transfer of data by virtual cloud connections and they have got an amazing first mover advantage in building out their network footprint. The company has currently got 600 data centres, that is double their nearest competitor, and they have also managed to double the number of data centres installed on their network over the last 12 months.

We expect the company to continue these phenomenal growth rates. And in addition they have got a new product pipeline which we expect to support valuation going forward, so it's a buy.
smile.gif



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 1 2020, 03:36 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 1 2020, 01:47 PM

I was planning to go fishing in my new Zegna suit, but you seem to imply they are mutually exclusive.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 1 2020, 01:47 PM
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Congrats, so what are you going out to buy??
What about a new 4WD, fishing boat, or maybe a Zegna suit?
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 1 2020, 01:27 PM
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Took part in the SPP; I committed the full $30k seeing the trading price was well above $9.50 offer. But, as with prior offers, scale back loomed. Ended with less than 25% or $6772.

Oh, well. Trading has held up and closing on $14 again so I can't complain



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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nipper
post Posted: Apr 11 2020, 09:59 AM
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finally a bit of recognition for a story I've been in and out of, making money as the stock has gained .

MP1 went down during the Covid-19 sell off but has rebounded. Only issue, as with most data storage and connectivity stories is that growth needs funding. Now there's another capital raising going on, with retail getting a SPP, which is fine except it dilutes the non participants.... Likely to be scaled back as it has been in earlier actions. So I'm glad I've traded it on the way up, and taken profits along the way.

QUOTE
The surge in working from home as a result of the coronavirus crisis has meant Megaport ((MP1)) has benefited from an increase in connections via virtual desktop infrastructure and cloud-based applications. Telecommunications companies and data centres are typically considered critical infrastructure and remain in “safe mode” operations despite the lock-downs.

In its third quarter update the company achieved the acceleration in uptake that UBS was looking for, particularly in terms of the number of ports added and the incremental monthly recurring revenue.

Port and services sales accelerated by 11% and 12% respectively in the the third quarter. A weaker Australian dollar also provide benefits as around 60% of revenues are generated offshore. Third quarter revenue grew 10% to $15.2m.

The business is now moving closer to a maiden positive operating earnings outcome, expected in the fourth quarter of FY21. This is perceived as a major turning point by UBS and, with growth momentum accelerating, the broker’s rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

The broker recognises the current market volatility and the flight-to-quality that has underpinned the share price but considers any near-term weakness remains a good buying opportunity.

Goldman Sachs agrees there is a defensive earnings outlook relative to other companies under its coverage and Megaport is on track to achieve FY20 revenue forecasts. Still, the broker, not one of the seven monitored daily on the FNArena database, retains a Neutral rating and $10.85 target, believing the earnings and balance sheet are reflected in the current valuation.

The broker believes the company’s solution is relevant for corporates that are likely to be accelerating the migration of infrastructure to the cloud. Ord Minnett agrees and anticipates further opportunities after the crisis has passed.

Morgans points out Megaport had already employed mobile extensively as around 60% of its staff were already working remotely before the crisis. Hence, moving to 100% was relatively smooth.

Moreover, the broker notes, in February, Megaport flagged events in China and, concerned about potential delays in the supply chain, ordered networking equipment required to fill plans for 380 connections to data centres by June 2020.

The business is not yet generating cash so its balance sheet and access to capital remain the focus in the current climate. Morgans reports, at the end of February, there was more than $100m in cash which equates to around two years of funding based on the company’s last quarterly cash burn rate.

Future In The Cloud

UBS is comfortable around expectations for the shift to the cloud amid continued growth in both Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. The broker expects compound growth of 18% in 2017-21 for global public cloud business.

UBS has its own survey data which shows increasing expenditure from existing users on the cloud, along with 40-45% of respondents planning to use multiple cloud products. The broker believes an age is looming where data will dominate new technology and the company’s software-defined-network provides the path for this data to move between the cloud and lower-tiered data centres.

Morgans also expects that the outcome of the coronavirus crisis will result in existing customers consuming more services and it may well be the tipping point whereby Megaport crosses into the mainstream, helping individuals with their network connections to the cloud and making remote access available to many other dedicated point-to-point solutions.

New customers are typically medium to large organisations with the ability to embrace technological improvements but Morgans is optimistic that Megaport’s offering may become a mass market solution.

FNArena’s database has two Buy ratings and one Hold (Ord Minnett). The consensus target is $11.98, suggesting 8.0% upside to the last share price

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/07/a-b...s-for-megaport/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 09:33 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 15 2019, 12:28 PM

MP1 popped 50c at open to above $11



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 11 2019, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE
UBS has increased its price target on Megaport following the company's $62 million capital rising, saying it gave the company plenty of headroom to accelerate its rollout.

Maintaining its 'buy' rating on the stock, UBS lifted its price target from $11.30 to $11.55, more than 20 per cent above its Tuesday close.

The broker said the company's capital raising had "well and truly" de-risked funding requirements until Megaport's forecast break even point of 2021, would allow expansion into new geography and left headroom for any further strategic investments.

"Our thesis remains unchanged – Megaport will be a major beneficiary of the data generation over the next decade, with a large first mover advantage, low capital intensity and material operating leverage as the portfolio matures," said analyst Tim Plumbe. "We recognise the high multiples, but highlight the strong revenue growth profile."




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 15 2019, 12:28 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 22 2019, 12:18 PM

MP1 made it through $10 this morning, but couldn't hold.

...but I continue to.smile.gif



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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