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early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 11:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

With the SPX flirting with new highs at a less than feverish pace recently, a breakout has been elusive. The indexs potential cup and handle pattern hasnt changed much this week, but with the May CPI numbers now having been released, well see if one side finally takes the reins.



2

A breakout potential has been a theme in many other areas, too. Some indices and ETFs have been trying to push to new highs (R2k, XLC, PJP), while others have been getting close to completing short-term bullish formations in the face of clear resistance (ARKK, XBI, TAN).



3
We take a look at a host of them below. Seeing which way these resolve will give us a clue about the broader markets next direction and leadership, as well

================
20 minutes into us cash market opening bell, SPX had breakout, as index shoots up so fast......... tongue.gif

might see our market follow it up tomorrow when our cash market opens!! i do think asx200 is a lot bullish than other market....imho though!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 09:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20210609-p57zju

No bleeding risks were found to be associated with the Pfizer dose.

But a new and slightly increased risk of a rare autoimmune disorder was found following the AstraZeneca shot, as was evidence suggestive of other bleeding and vascular events.


=======================
not gonna touch AZ shots.....
haven't got luck to win the lotto , but instead hit this blood vascular jackpot . lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/06/09/a-b...ok-for-banking/

A Brighter Outlook for Banking

Australian Equities Growth Head of Research at First Sentier Investors, Christian Guerra, looks at the developing macroeconomic conditions and what this means for the banks and dividends.

========================

i'm bit biased on banks as i'm holding large stake in WBC. I had similar reason to this link , that is why i lean to bullish on aussie banks!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

What is a triple witching?
Triple witching is when the expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all fall on the same day. It only happens four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December which can create a spike in trading volume and volatility.

Sometimes triple witching is called quadruple witching, as single stock options were added in 2002 and also expire on the same quarterly dates.

Unlike investing, using derivatives like futures and options carry an expiry date. This has the benefit of enabling traders to speculate on what the price of the underlying market will be over a specific period. Once the expiry date arrives, any contract holders will need to buy or sell the underlying asset in question.

On a triple witching day, nearly double the number of contracts expire than in any other week, which is what creates the market movements that triple witching day is known for.

The underlying markets will see volatility in the week leading up to triple witching, but the most active period is the final hour before the market closes on the day, known as the witching hour. This is when parties rush to close their positions, offset them or roll them over. Even those who have only opened speculative positions on the futures or options contracts will need to decide whether to close, offset, or roll over their trade at expiry.

Sometimes, triple witching events can come and go with little volatility. This is especially true after weekly and daily expirations became available, as activity became more spread out. However, it will all depend on the context in which the event happens, so its important to look at news and analysis in the run-up to the witching day.

Check out our latest news.

Triple witching calendar 2021-2022
June 18, 2021
September 17, 2021
December 17, 2021
March 18, 2022
June 17, 2022
September 16, 2022
December 16, 2022

========================
just in case someone not aware these market events [ it might make market jumping up and down]
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 10 2021, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 33,600

Key resistance: 34,800

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

The oldest US index has been on a tear since the COVID-driven trough last March, though prices have taken a bit of a breather over the past two months. The recent consolidation between support at 33,600 and 34,800 has alleviated the overbought condition in the RSI indicator and allowed the longer-term 200-day exponential moving average time to catch up with prices; in other words, the recent price action can be viewed as a healthy pause within the context of a longer-term uptrend. Now, traders will watch for a confirmed break above 34,800 to signal the next leg higher in the uptrend, with only a break below the 50-day EMA and horizontal support at 33,600 calling the bullish bias into question.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Sideways

Key support: 13,000

Key resistance: 14,500

Near-term technical bias: Neutral

Of all four indices we examine here, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is arguably the weakest from a technical perspective. Prices are trading above both the upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs, but only marginally, and the RSI indicator hasnt hit overbought territory yet this year, indicating tepid buying pressure. After months of choppy, inconsistent trade, bulls will need to see a confirmed break above the year-to-date high at 14,050 to renew the longer-term bullish trend and open the door for a move toward 15,000 this year.

DAX (GE 30) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 15,500

Key resistance: 15,750

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

In contrast, Germanys benchmark bourse is clearly in the strongest technical position of the major indices. The DAX set a fresh record high just last week and pulled back to bounce off previous-resistance-turned-support at 15,500 in todays trade, signaling that the breakout is more likely legitimate. The RSI is not in overbought territory, signaling the potential for more upside in the short term as long as the key 15,500 level holds.

FTSE 100 (UK 100) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 6,800

Key resistance: 7,150

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

Looking at its chart, the UKs FTSE 100 index is a middle-of-the-road amalgamation of the other indices weve examined so far. The medium-term trend is clearly still bullish, with prices holding above their upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs and the RSI indicator consolidating after touching overbought territory last month. As with the Dow, the month-to-date sideways consolidation should be viewed as a healthy development for the longer-term trend unless near-term support in the 7,000 is broken, whereas a strong breakout above 7,150 would strengthen the bullish case for a retest of record highs in the upper-7,000s later this year.

=================it is one of the many TA studies
DTOR as always !!

as for asx200- the index looks bullish , but keep eye on commodity , bit of smoke atm!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2021, 12:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

i bought it at 0.081 soon i bought them, the SP dived!! lmaosmiley.gif

is that you who is selling plasic?? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2021, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

i bought it at 0.081 soon i bought them, the SP dived!! lmaosmiley.gif

is that you who is selling plasic?? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 9 2021, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

bought few POS ----for the small nickel play
not sure is goon move or not?? unsure.gif saw it had "nice ann" and price dropped, typical "sell on news" stuff. market never changes!! lmaosmiley.gif

on the global market , think EU is better and safe bet. imho!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2021, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The financial crimes watchdog AUSTRAC has launched an unprecedented series of probes into the record-keeping and internal surveillance processes of major casino groups Crown, Star City and The Star, as well as possible non-compliance at the National Australia Bank.

Monday saw separate announcements from each of the four companies revealing the AUSTRAC interest in their affairs in the sensitive areas of money laundering and anti-terrorism financing.

Like SkyCity, The Star said AUSTRACs concerns were identified in the course of a compliance assessment commenced in September 2019.

AUSTRAC also widened its investigation into Crown Resorts after uncovering potential breaches of anti-money laundering laws at its Perth resorts and it is looking deeper into NABs anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing performance.

AUSTRAC revealed in October last year it was formally investigating Crown over non-compliance with anti-money laundering laws at its flagship Melbourne casino relating to the due diligence it conducted on high-roller patrons.

Crown said on Monday that AUSTRAC had now also identified potential serious non-compliance with anti-money laundering laws at its smaller Perth casino.

Problems at the Perth casino (the old Burswood casino) came to light in the Bergin inquiry in NSW in relation to alleged breaches of rules and regulations ahead of Crowns attempts to open its Barangaroo casino in Sydney.

As a result, AUSTRAC has initiated a formal enforcement investigation into the compliance of Crown Perth, Crown said in a statement released to the ASX on Monday.

In a further update on Monday, Crown also said on Monday it had recently received legal advice that Crown Melbourne had breached Victorias Casino Control Act between 2012 and 2016 by taking debit and credit card payments from international hotel guests for casino chips, which is banned under state law.

Crown took over $160 million in payments in this manner until it ceased the practice in 2016, it said.

Crown is continuing its investigations into these matters, including whether it may have breached other laws by reason of the hotel card process, it said.

Crown said it had notified the Victorian gambling regulator about the breach as well the royal commissions that are under way in Victoria and Western Australia into its suitability to hold a casino licence.

The Bergin inquiry in NSW ruled in February that Crown was unfit to have a licence for its Barangaroo casino.

And the Victoria Royal Commission was told on Monday that Crown Resorts had potentially underpaid the Victorian government by $167 million in deducting marketing expenses from its calculations of gaming taxes from its poker machine revenue.

Victorias royal commission into Crown heard on Monday morning that four days after the inquiry was announced, on February 26, the casino giant prepared a spreadsheet calculating potential gaming tax underpayments.

Fairfax Media reported that Crowns executive general manager of gaming machines, Mark Mackay, told the commission that Crown Melbourne CEO Xavier Walsh had asked him and other senior staff to calculate how much Crown had saved between 2014 and 2019 by deducting the cost of running its loyalty scheme from poker machine tax payments.

Counsel assisting the inquiry, Geoffrey Kozminsky, said the total savings for the period clocked in at $167 million after the deduction of costs such as free valet parking, accommodation and hospitality, according to Fairfax.

Mr Mackay also said Crown believed it was entitled to make the deductions, but he agreed the work had been in response to concerns about ambiguity in the gaming tax legislation relating to jackpot payouts on the casinos 2628 poker machines.

And in a 4th statement to the ASX on Monday morning, Crowns main rival, Sydney-based Star Entertainment said on Monday that AUSTRAC had also identified a potential breach of its anti-money laundering obligations relating to due diligence of high risk and politically exposed gamblers at its Sydney casino.

The Star said AUSTRAC had not made a decision about whether or not it will take enforcement action, which could lead to fines, and had requested documents from The Star as part of an enforcement investigation.

Fellow ASX-listed casino, the NZ based SkyCity said on Monday that AUSTRAC had also launched an enforcement investigation into a potential failure to conduct proper due diligence on high-risk and politically exposed patrons at its Adelaide casino.

That is now in the hands of AUSTRAC investigators and prosecutors.

Meanwhile the National Australia Banks announcement was not in any way connected to the AUSTRAC references from the casino groups.

In its letter, NAB told the ASX that AUSTRAC had advised the bank in a letter dated June, 4 this year that it is AUSTRACs view that there is potential serious and ongoing non-compliance with customer identification procedures, ongoing customer due diligence and compliance with Part A of NABs AML/CTF Program.

These concerns have been referred to AUSTRACs enforcement team, which has initiated a formal enforcement investigation, NAB said.

In the letter to NAB, AUSTRAC said that it has not made any decision about whether or not enforcement action would be taken.

AUSTRAC told the NAB that at this stage, it is not considering civil penalty proceedings and that this decision is reflective of the work undertaken by NAB to date.

AUSTRACs referral to its enforcement team follows regular engagement by NAB with AUSTRAC over a long period of time, both to report issues and keep AUSTRAC informed of progress in uplifting and strengthening the Groups AML/CTF Program.

NAB said disclosed the existence of AML/CTF compliance issues in various public disclosures since 2017, including most recently in NABs 2021 Half Year Financial Report

AUSTRAC has a wide range of enforcement options available to it, including civil penalty orders, enforceable undertakings, infringement notices and remedial directions.

NAB CEO Ross McEwan said in Mondays statement that the bank would continue to cooperate with AUSTRAC in its investigations.

AUSTRAC has previously brought actions against the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac and obtained substantial fines ($1.3 billion for Westpac and $700 million from the Commonwealth) in agreed settlements of the two actions.

The shares of the quartet all fell in the wake of the news NAB shares eased 3.1% to $26.64, Crown shares lost 1.5% to $12.50, Star shares lost 2% to $3.89 and SkyCity shares slumped 6.5% to $A3.18.

==============
from our own sharecafe
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 8 2021, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

As the performance grid shows, the index has four bullish patterns at its back. A breakout through its 5/17 highs would produce an upside target of 4,420.
The Value Sectors outperformance last week produced a fresh new high for the SPXs Cumulative Adv-Dec Line, a positive divergence.
=============

chart of SPX still on the solid bullish case for the near term

asx200 is consolidating the major breakout , bullish as well!!


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 7 2021, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

thanks nipper tongue.gif

PAN now i see what i'm use to puy my hands on and been stopped out few years back [bought at 0.30's and stopped out at 0.25]
thought PAN was good growth stock at the time [ they ramped me into it] lmaosmiley.gif

now it is 16cps as i looked at just now,


anything else you think is better bet for nickel ?? unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 7 2021, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20210607-p57yo7

The board of Japara Healthcare has opened its books to suitor Little Company of Mary Health Care Ltd, also known as Calvary Healthcare, taking a possible tie up one step closer.


This is higher than Calvarys initial approach of $1.04 per share made on April 30.


The Japara board has considered the revised indicative proposal and obtained advice from its financial and legal advisors, Japara said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchang

The board has determined that it is appropriate to offer Calvary due diligence access, subject to agreeing appropriate conditions and confidentiality arrangements, so that Calvary can develop a binding
proposal that is capable of being recommended to shareholders.

---------------

easy to hold on to until it get's $1.20 plus......... tongue.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 7 2021, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

ann for JHC

calvery increased it's bid to $1.20 per share!! tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Jun 5 2021, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

any nickel stocks, kinda remember a small one but forgot the code and name!!

please feed us few names nipper!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

U.S. unemployment rate drops to 5.8% as economy generates 559,000 new jobs in May pointing to widespread labor shortages

==================================

labor shortages??? means boss gonna pay more---leads to inflation!! am i right??> tongue.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Nonfarm payrolls in May were expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

future popped up , because market expecting Fed to keep current extreme loosen monetary policy!! lmaosmiley.gif

money money money , keep printing , it's rich man's world!! ABBA lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Amusingly enough the author, the Peoples Bank of China, then went on to predict that the exchange rate would be stable.

==============

hi nipper
think of what RBA and Fed and all other major central bankers talk, have you see any difference??? they all the same!! jaw bone !! lmaosmiley.gif

to be honest , NO ONE here can predicting any currency's movement. if someone does, then he/she will be supper rich!! lmaosmiley.gif

best we can do is to do "educated guess" and with stops in hand[ prepare to be wrong]

financial system in china is different to amarica, but every country is different i guess. just need to understand how it works, then place a trade to profit from it!![ if one can profit from it. lmaosmiley.gif

all IMHO. though. without political bias !!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

What is driving the US Dollar higher?: DXY

With the possibility of a stronger than expected NFP print for May, the DXY has gone bid on taper hopes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was on a tear today. The US session began with the DXY selling off after Russia announced that they were exiting US Dollars from their Sovereign Wealth Fund. However, that move later reversed, and the DXY turned sharply higher with a better than expected ADP Employment Change figure for May, as well as, with a better than expected initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 29th. Expectations for tomorrows Non-Farm Payrolls for May are +645,000. ( See Matt Wellers complete NFP Preview HERE). But if good jobs numbers mean a stronger economy, wouldnt that mean stronger stocks and a weaker US Dollar?

By now you know the story: better data means there is more of a chance that the Fed may do more than just Talk about talk about tapering. The worry is that with a better print, the Fed will announce tapering at their June meeting in 2 weeks. Tapering, or decreasing their $120 billion of bond purchases per month, would mean lower bond prices and higher yields. In addition, less support from the Fed would also mean lower stock prices and a higher DXY.

However, the risk for the NFP print is twofold:

1) it is weaker than expected

2) there is a large revision from the horrible April print (+266,000)

We also need to pay attention to the average hourly earnings figure. With higher inflation data lately, the Fed will want to make sure that inflation is feeding through to the employment data before they do anything. They have consistently said that they want to see a string of months of improvement in the labor market, which includes increases in pay. Expectations are 0.2% for May.

After moving lower for most of 2020, DXY bounced for almost the entire first quarter of 2021. Thus far in the second quarter, the DXY has been moving lower. After hovering around the 200 Day Moving Average near 91 at the end of April/beginning of May, price continued lower in a descending wedge formation. Price broke above the wedge on May 27th, and today, finally accelerated higher away from the wedge. The DXY traded to horizontal resistance today near 90.59.

With the possibility of a stronger than expected NFP print for May, the DXY has gone bid on taper hopes. Of course, the other reason for the bid could simply be profit taking ahead of the data, as the US Dollar has been falling since the first day of Q2. Watch for revisions to the April print, as well as Average Hourly Earnings for a better gauge on market direction ahead of the Fed in mid-June.

======================
DYOR
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 4 2021, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The SPXs quiet streak of six straight moves of 25 bps or less could be threatened today given the early weakness.

Things surely have slowed in the second quarter, but not like weve seen recently. As noted last evening, this has been especially striking given the renewed interest in meme stocks.

We can choose to ignore the meme-stock wackiness, monstrous moves and acute reversals all we want, but not when they are affecting the broader indices. Needless to say, up to this point, they have NOT affected the broader indices

The same scenario played out in the very early stages of GME spiking in January. Eventually, of course, the SPX and others took a hit.

While the SPX is not extended from an RSI perspective right now, other areas have gotten short-term stretched. As noted last night, 27 ETFs we track up at least five straight days. Some sort of pause would not be a surprise.
=======================

think SPX will holds 4185 ---the short term support.. keep eye on it

ASX200 is bullish as ever, esp AUD DROPPED big time last night's session.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Is Chinas A50 ready to bust higher?

Chinas economy has slowly been grinding higher. Unlike other countries, which faced a steep contraction of economic activity and then a quick spike in activity, Chinas recovery has been moving slowly and steadily higher. Manufacturing PMI has been steady between 50.6 and 52.1 over the past year, however intense input and output price increases have dulled the data series lately. Chinas inflation data is due out next week. Traders will be watching to see if CPI is able to uptick from Aprils reading of 0.9%. Current expectations are for 1%. With the slow but steady growth, current low headline CPI data, and increased demand from abroad, one may think Chinas stocks are flying. However, China is a having raw material input issues of its own, which may be holding stocks back. They are rising, but not soaring.

The China A50 Index gives investors access to the China domestic A shares. The main stock index grinded higher into mid-February of this year, near 20603, before pulling back as the RSI was in overbought territory and diverging from price. The A50 Index pulled back and held support at the spike high from July 6, 2021 (dark green line), near 16486. As price began to move higher, it broke above a downward sloping trendline from early March and is currently forming a flag pattern.

Notice how price moved to the 50% retracement level from the February 18th highs to the April 15th lows, near 18544, before consolidating in its current pattern. The lower shadows on the candlesticks over the last 5 sessions indicate that although there was selling early in each day, buyers entered the market and took control each session towards the closes. The lows of the flag are holding support at the 100-day moving average just above 17943. If price breaks above 18400, it will break out of the top of the flag. The target of a flag pattern is the length of the flagpole added to the breakout point of the flag. In this case its near 19260. However, if price is to reach its target, it must first pass through the previously mentioned 50% retracement level at 18544 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the same timeframe near 19030. In the event price cant hold the 100 Day Moving Average at the bottom of the flag, horizontal support is just below at 17791, ahead of what would be a retest of the downward sloping trendline from early March, near 17200.

If China is to continue with its recovery and stock market indices are to continue to move higher, the China A50 Index must first break out of its flag formation. The target is near 19260. If price does reach the target, it may well continue its way to the February all-time highs!

==============================
been told to be aggressive with A50!!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Chinese Whispers Send Ore Prices Skyrocketing

Reports that authorities in Tangshan, one of Chinas major steel producing centres, are talking about relaxing tough rules brought in last April to cut pollution and smog emissions from the citys huge steelmaking sector have sent iron ore prices soaring for a second day.

FastmarketsMB said the price of all three grades of ore 62% Fe fines 58% Fe fines and 65% Fe fines rose more than 4% on Tuesday after similar rises on Monday.

That saw the prices of the three big iron ore exporters enjoy a good day and help drive the ASX 200 up by 1% to a new closing high.

BHP shares rose 3% to $49.30, Fortescue shares rose 2% to $23.28 and Rio shares closed at $126.96, up 1.8% but were over $128 at one stage in the session.

Other reports suggested that some capacity cut ideas might be eased, while other reports said the operation of Basic Oxygen Converters (BOS) operations at steel mills (which convert the pig iron into crude steel) might be exempted from the crackdown on pollution as they are not big emitters.

Sintering plants, coke ovens and blast furnaces emit more pollutants, according to reports.

Reuters reported that pollution and capacity cuts are still being discussed in the government.

Iron ore prices reached $US208.67 ($268.72) tonne for 62% Fe fines. That was a rise of $US9.84 a tonne or more than 4.5%. The price of 58% Fe fines rose $US8.15 or more than 5% to $US181 a tonne. The price of 65% Fe fines were up less than 3% (or $US7.10 a tonne) to $239.90 a tonne.

That still leaves prices $US25 to $US30 a tonne short of the all-time highs reached on May 12.

The production cuts were in response to the Tangshan governments crackdown on steel mills, with the aim of cutting pollution levels and halving Chinas emissions.

Fastmarkets and Reuters reported that the municipal government of Tangshan Chinas steelmaking hub in the north of the country is reported to have suggested that basic oxygen furnaces no longer come under production restrictions due to the low level of pollutants that they emit.

In a notice released late on Monday May 31, it also suggested a relaxation of the rates of emissions cuts by steel mills in the city to 20-30% from the more stringent 30-50% currently in place.

The larger cuts were announced in April amid a lot of song and dance from local and central government departments and officials and the reports of backsliding might indicate the changes are not written in stone in Beijing and some slippage could happen which could be bullish for iron ore prices and demand.

It suggested the rate for Chunxing Special Steel, Tangshan Plate, Donghua Steel, Xinda Steel and Songting Steel to be lowered to 30% from 50%, and for another 15 steel mills emissions reduction rate to be lowered by 20%, instead of 30%.

This is in line with the central Chinese governments proposal of using market-oriented methods to cool down red-hot commodity markets, including steel, Fastmarkets reported.
========================

from our own sharecafe

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

US Dollar

There continues to be some demand near 90. Given its round number significance and that the zone held twice prior in 2021, this is understandable. But theres also ample supply up near the 91-91.5 zone, which may slow down any true bounce attempt.

============
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 08:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/trump-...port/ar-AAKE0oS

Democrats who support Joe Biden don't want to hear anything about Donald Trump, and because Donald Trump is not on Twitter anymore, they think, therefore, he doesn't really exist," Haberman said. "Except he does really exist strongly in this right-wing ecosystem."

===================

the jackass back again?? lmaosmiley.gif
man, what a crazy world that is!!!!! cool.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Jun 3 2021, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in June 53/93 years (57% of the time), with an average move of +0.77%.
But those numbers are a bit skewed given that 8 of the top 10 happened between 1929 and 1955, and those were sizable up-moves.
The most recent big June advance occurred in 2019 (+6.89%).
Looking more closely, the SPX has advanced in June 11/20 years, with an average move of -0.6%. But its been a lot better lately, with the index having been higher in June five straight years starting in 2016.
The 20 Year track shows a jagged, but higher, first half followed by a big dip late in the month that has tended to mark a multi-month low. A key low was etched in June last year, too, of course.
With the SPX marginally higher in May, the index logged its fourth consecutive monthly advance. At least four straight monthly gains coming into June have happened only four prior times since 1992 (1995,1996, 2013 and 2014). The index was up in June three times (down in 2013).
On AVERAGE, the R2k has etched a bottom vs. the SPX in late May over the last 20 years, which has tended to last through June.
Over the last 20 years, VIX seasonality has displayed intra-month spikes after etching a low in May. Last June, the index shot higher by nearly 90% mid-month as the SPX cratered 5.9% on 6/10. It then dropped 54% through early August
===================

still bullish on SPX. from chart point of view, SPX gonna go higher, more likely. imho

as for asx200 it looks really bullish from the chart [as it clear the 7200 again] expecting it to march higher. tongue.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 31 2021, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/us-sec...r-dr/ar-AAKxAtl

The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) has used a partnership with Denmark's foreign intelligence unit to spy on senior officials of neighbouring countries, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to Danish state broadcaster DR.

According to the investigation which covered 2012 and 2014, the NSA used Danish information cables to spy on senior officials in Sweden, Norway, France and Germany, including former German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and former German opposition leader Peer Steinbrück.

"It is grotesque that friendly intelligence services are indeed intercepting and spying on top representatives of other countries," Steinbrueck told German broadcaster ARD. "Politically I consider it a scandal."

Sweden's Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist told Swedish SVT broadcaster that he "demanded full information on these things." Norway's Defence Minister Frank Bakke-Jensen told broadcaster NRK that "take the allegations seriously."

=================================

not sure how "serious" they gonna go??/ because this shit happened long long time ago !!! lmaosmiley.gif serious?? give me a break!!

to be fair , you give anyone a chance they will do the same , in this case USA had superior technology to do so, so they did it. as Edward Snowden pointed out before this happened!!

not sure why the heck they bring this old story up again?? to me all the Govnt. are the same shit!! weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 27 2021, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.fool.com.au/free-stock-report/a...kMoxc73oOin9IYn

It’s been a heck of a run — but what I’m most proud of is our ability to consistently lead investors like you to some of the most life-changing investment returns the market has ever seen. I’m talking, of course, about companies like:

ResMed (up 484%) since recommended 24/05/13
Corporate Travel Management (up 831%) since recommended 23/08/12
Cochlear (up 266%) since recommended 26/04/13
Seek (up 425%) since recommended 27/09/12

===================

here is my question
how many losers they have been recommended to their members during this 10 plus year?????? wink.gif no mention at all???
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 26 2021, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Market bears were eager to point out that Monday’s 8.36 billion shares accompanied one of the broadest advances we’ve seen in weeks.
Looking more closely, volume fell off of a cliff after April 5th, just as the market was extending from that prior highly volatile, heavy volume, late-Feb to late-March trading period. During those few weeks, volume was STRONG on both up AND down days.

Since then, Volume has been LIGHT on both up and down days.


In fact, if we had let volume levels alone dictate the next move over the last two weeks, we would have been led down a wrong path. The highest volume days in May happened on 5/11 and 5/12. While those were part of an ultimate 4.4% drawdown, there was no downside follow through.

Instead, support held twice, as more backing and filling resulted. And yesterday, the SPX finished with its third highest closing price.

The longest uptrends are characterized by small moves, low volatility and low volume. The number of 1% moves have not disappeared, of course, but on a rolling 12-month basis, the number continues to drop. See chart below.

======================

so bulls are winning for US market esp SPX.

for asx200

as i'm typing the future is over come 7100, could see short covering and buying from the bulls today. bias is long for today!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 26 2021, 09:58 AM


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Posts: 13,556

https://www.ft.com/content/408d4065-f66d-43...us_yahoo/auddev

The extraordinary stimulus measures in the US could undermine confidence in the greenback if inflation takes off


Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/408d4065-f66d-43...us_yahoo/auddev

Billionaire US fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller delivered an apocalyptic warning earlier this month that the dollar could cease to be the predominant global reserve currency within 15 years.

“I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances,” the chief executive of Duquesne Family Office declared.

He is not alone in expressing concerns about excess US demand, a more inflationary environment and accompanying dollar weakness. Such worries have been a contributory factor in the jittery equity markets of the past two weeks.

..
=================================

i guess a lot of "old time" people here knew this , but USD still standing like strong cowboy....... cool.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 25 2021, 03:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

While traditional technical patterns have been snuffed out soon after “triggering” over the last few weeks in the SPX, we shouldn’t ignore how potentially powerful a boring trading range could be for the next move

There were four multi-week trading range breakouts in 2020 While they varied in length and height, they shared two key characteristics: 1. The initial breakout attempt failed. 2. The resultant low was tested and held, which helped prevent a topping pattern from triggering.

While we don’t know if the recent low near 4,056 was “the” low of this move, so far, the same type of behavior has repeated once again.

Both were part of a volatile few months (starting that May), with the index finally breaking out to new highs again in October. The recent back and forth movement since last September looks quite similar to 2019 in this sense. The missing link – a breakout that has legs…

====================================================
SPX WENT ABOVE 4200 AS I'M TYPING. bulls seems winning........

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 24 2021, 09:27 AM


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Posts: 13,556

Worries about inflation and the sliding cryptocurrency market thanks to Chinese Government intervention will dominate financial markets again this week.

While Eurozone shares rose 0.6% on Friday, Wall Street saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall marginally, while the Dow finished in the green.

There was further taper talk by hawkish Fed officials in public appearances last week (and in the Fed’s latest minutes). More appearances by Fed officials are due this week while a key inflation measure favoured by the Fed will be issued on Friday and is forecast to show the annual rate hitting 3% in April.

Friday’s soft US lead saw ASX 200 futures fall 5 points or 0.1%, pointing to a weakish start to trade for the Australian share market today.

Weakness in cryptocurrencies continued after another strong warning from the Chinese government saw Bitcoin lose more ground.

Trading continues 24/7 so the price Monday morning could be very different to where it was on Friday night and Saturday – close to or under $US30,000 a token.

The ASX 200 added 10.7 points or 0.2% on Friday to close at 7,030.3.

The ASX 200 nosed 16.1 points ahead for the week, adding 0.2% across the five days.

The weekly rise came after the market recovered on Thursday from Wednesday’s $A41 billion slide.

A lowlight of Friday’s trading was online retailer Kogan.com whose shares plunged 14.3% to $8.70 on an earnings downgrade and stock and sales problems.

Share markets had a bit of a rough ride last week with inflation fears continuing to impact along with taper talk in the US and perhaps some impact from the fall in crypto currencies forcing speculators in them to sell shares to help cover margin calls on their crypto losses, according to the AMP’s Shane Oliver.

This left US shares down 0.4% for the week, but Eurozone shares were up 0.3%, Japanese shares rose 0.8% and Chinese shares gained 0.5%.

Bond yields actually fell, and commodity prices were soft with metal and iron ore prices down and oil prices down on reports of progress in US/Iranian talks to return to the nuclear deal and end sanctions on Iran. That would see more oil appear in global markets.

The Aussie dollar fell despite a further fall in the greenback.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 lost earlier gains and finished Friday nearly flat as the tech sector came under pressure again amid another drop in bitcoin price.

The index closed down less than 0.1% to 4,155.86 after rising as much as 0.7% earlier in the day. The Dow added 123.69 points, or 0.4%, to 34,207.84, thanks to a jump in Boeing shares. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% to 13,470.99.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to register for its first back-to-back weekly losses since February. The Dow eased 0.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq saw a rise of 0.3%, breaking a four-week losing streak.

==============

from our own sharecafe!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 23 2021, 03:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

five weeks remain until the end of the TFF on 30 June 2021. Will fixed rate loan rates begin to rise as banks return to bond markets for term debt?

=====================

that is when we expecting property market to "cooling off" some what do we???

rental market is really soft, and units gonna feel the heat when the time comes i guess!! imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2021, 10:23 AM


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Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/lo...usly/ar-AAKdeIM


With concerns the rollout is stalling due to people's fears of blood clotting and adverse reactions to vaccines already available, the Federal Government has now put a callout for more companies to make an application to manufacture other vaccines on home soil.

==============

fear is something that is normal for every day people like us. i for one won't touch AZ with any poll....... weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 21 2021, 12:27 AM


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Posts: 13,556

The SPX’s reversal yesterday came just as the index was about to test last week’s low. Under that point, there was (and still is) a lot of air down to the 3,990 area.

The SPX’s next step will be breaking above the recent downtrend line. And that line actually is part of a multi-week DOWNWARD sloping trading channel. And as of now, it looks similar to the prior downturns we’ve seen this year. Each was resolved to the upside, and each led to new highs, as well. See the chart below.

As noted yesterday, the intra-day TICK range of 3,365 was the third widest in history. Of the prior nine occasions, six times, a short-term low was etched soon thereafter. Three times, more volatility followed.

====================

SPX rebounding as i typing, looks a good session for bulls!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 03:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://au.yahoo.com/news/man-icu-with-bloo...-045035249.html

Olivia Lambert
Olivia Lambert·News Editor
Thu, 20 May 2021, 2:50 pm
A man is in a serious condition after he developed blood clots following his first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The 53-year-old man is being treated in intensive care after receiving the jab in South Australia on May 4.

SA Chief Health Officer Nicola Spurrier told reporters the man was admitted to hospital on May 18 with severe abdominal pain.

She added it was the first case of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) in the state and it had been "linked to the AstraZeneca" vaccine.

=============

another over 50s case, so age isn't much mattes fo AZ

it is low percentage m but it can cause death---that is why people scared of AZ. not many like to take the chance esp virus rate is so low in Aussie.....

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Fear is the mind-killer: secular growth stocks are becoming increasingly attractive.

Secular growth stocks have been dramatic relative underperformers for the last 11 months. This underperformance was quiet at first, but has become really notable in 2021

I have no opinion on the future direction of inflation, but I would note that Warren Buffett’s fantastic article from 1977, “How inflation swindles the equity investor” suggests that high ROE/ROIC businesses should outperform low ROE/ROIC businesses in a high inflation environment as they will suffer less relative compression in their ROEs and ROICs.

Relative revisions drive relative performance over short 1 year time frames. Duration of growth and changes in ROIC drive relative performance over longer time frames.


I think that the relative weakness in secular growth stocks fundamentals exemplified by their terrible relative revisions is nearing an end. For anyone confused who believes that the fundamentals of secular growth stocks have been good — yes, their fundamentals have been good in absolute terms, but the 10 to 20% beats seen in secular growth land this earnings season are actually disappointing relative to what has been happening in the rest of the market.

Secular growth stocks are increasingly attractive to me although I will continue to own most of my consumer cyclicals as well given they are still quite cheap.

Cleaner positioning, lower relative valuations and stabilizing relative revisions are positive for secular growth. The time to rotate to cheap cyclicals exposed to vaccines, reopening and accelerating GDP was roughly 3 quarters ago, not today. It’s easy to “Be greedy when other are fearful and fearful when others are greedy,” but much harder to actually do this.

I would note that I am almost always early, so if history is any guide this is not the bottom for “secular” growth stocks but I do believe secular growth stocks are steadily becoming more attractive.

===================================


it is a long wind article, took me 20 minutes to try to nail it down what this guy try to tell us. DYOR as always!!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Commodities: Oil weaker on multiple fronts, gold shaken at its highs
Well, there was no major announcement of US rejoining the nuclear Iran deal as speculated by a Russian Ambassador. Yet it didn’t prevent oil from falling due to several drivers; broader risk-off sentiment, a stronger dollar, concerns of a potential Iran deal, falling demand from China and rising coronavirus cases in Asia.

WTI futures fell over -3% and to a three-week low before finding support at $62.00. Brent futures fell -3.25% and closed beneath trendline support on the daily chart.

It was a volatile yet, ultimately, directionless session for gold after a false break above 1875 resistance was quickly reversed and the day closed with a wide legged Rikshaw Man Doji. The stronger dollar certainly played its part but its failure to close above key resistance should warn bulls that a corrective phase could be due – just one day after Silver.

Silver’s bearish pinbar on Tuesday was confirmed with yesterday’s sell-off back towards 27.0. It remains within a bullish channel, in line with our core view, but we need to see volatility subside before reconsidering longs.

=====================

only silver is my bullish bet. think of silver will out perform all other majors next few months!! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The US dollar was the strongest major and rose against all its peers during a risk-off session, allowing the US dollar index (DXY) bounce from 89.68 support (the February low) and printed a two-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). This is a scenario we had planned for from a technical perspective, but the tone of the session allowed it to materialise.

EUR/NZD was the strongest pair, and EUR/AUD broke above the resistance level highlighted in yesterday’s Asian Open report after enjoying its most bullish session in six and stopping just shy of our initial 1.5800 target. As prices spent most of the US session retracing, we are now looking for the 1.5700 breakout area to hold as support before its next leg higher.

==================

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Indices remained under pressure for a third session
Wall Street was heading towards its third day of declines, although the declines at their heaviest just after the open before they pared losses throughout the session. The Nasdaq 100 etched in a small 0.15% gain, the Dow Jones was down -0.48%, the S&P 500 fell -0.29% whilst the Russell 2000 took a -0.78% hit. The losses were heavier in Europe, with the Euro STOXX 50 leading the declines by -1.6%, the DAX falling -1.55% and the CAC closing -1.2% lower. The FTSE fell by -0.94% to a four-day low.

We were looking for shorting opportunities on the ASX during its three-day pullback and it certainly did not disappoint. The ASX 200 met and blew past our bearish wedge target, finding support just above the 6905 low. With 80% of stocks below their 20-day eMA it points towards a near-term sentiment extreme and minor bounce, and futures are pointing towards a higher open around 6935. But, given the strength of yesterday’s bearish bar, we are again on the lookout for another sign of weakness but this time between the 6966 – 7000 zone. A break above 7,000 invalidates the bearish bias.

============================

on the fence , as things still murky !! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 20 2021, 02:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

As mentioned last evening, the index’s recent false breakout, quick drop, false breakdown, subsequent bounce and lack of upside follow through, all has created a sloppy looking chart over the last seven days of trading.
All eyes will be on the 50 Day MA again (4,076). Prior to last week, it was successfully tested six times since the March’20 lows.

If we look more closely, it’s clear that three of those times, the INITIAL test was temporary: In September, October and late Feb/ early March, the SPX subsequently undercut the 50 Day MA before true demand reappeared.

Those points lined up with times when the SPX got close to (or breached) the long-term trading channel, too.

================
best thing to deal with SPX is to stay aside. imho.

asx200 , both bulls and bears look at 6900. 6875 would be stops for the bulls if one try to have long bet. sit on the fence is the safer way imho
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2021, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20210505-p57p1g

The majority of my savings had sat in a long-term deposit, but the interest rate is just so small, that I decided it was time to start online trading to shake things up,” the 28-year-old communications executive says.

“I spoke to a few financially savvy friends to get some advice. One of them actually raked in some serious cash during COVID-19 from a long-term investment he has in overseas shares – he helped me set up my trading account, and gave me some tips to invest to get the ball rolling.”

=================

sound so familiar ----reminds me year 2000 before the the dot come crash...... ohmy.gif

market always work this way isn't it?? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2021, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

US Dollar: The breakdown target is near 86.5, which would put it below the early 2018 lows.


======================
it's just TA stuff. i'm focus on geo--plitical events instead for this few days!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 19 2021, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

one day movement that changed chart for traders
asx200 future is at 6988, my stoploss point. better stay on the fence today, these yo--yo action only suitable for intra--day traders.

for SPX

The SPX’s bearish formation last week (and subsequent support break) pushed the Bear Oscillator to 3, but with its downside target being negated on Friday, the indicator remains in the Tame Zone (0-3).

Three Demark Buy Signals have triggered for ARKK since May 4th. None have mattered yet, but it suggests the selloff could be getting washed out short-term. The issue, of course, is that a rally from here would just put it back to its former breakdown point and its 200-Day MA: more fodder for the bears.

=========================
that is before the US market bell, now , i think marketers got bit scared !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2021, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Among the acute turns and big swings last week, one of the most interesting was that the SPX logged two 1% losses and two 1% gains over the five trading sessions.

While that may seem rare, we’ve now seen four +/-1% moves in a calendar week eight times since the March’20 lows. Of the prior seven, the SPX was higher the next week five times (71% win rate).


Of those previous seven, the SPX finished lower three times DURING the week that it logged at least four 1% absolute moves (like last week). But the NEXT week, the index was higher each of those times.

Zooming out, as is clear on the chart below, none led to major downturns either. This is obvious knowing what has transpired over the last 15 months, but noteworthy, nonetheless.
==============

so, all is well for the bulls for SPX!!

asx200 holding above 7000, and had shake out action for it's future market last night, it dipped to low of 6992, then went all the way back to 7032 close. looks promising for the bulls today
i would go long at 7025ish with stops at 7010 target 7088 for two days.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2021, 09:37 AM


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Posts: 13,556

It’s a Wall Street nightmare. You score hundreds of millions of dollars on a trade and you just can’t get paid. That’s what Goldman Sachs faces in a transaction pitting it against Mexico’s dominant power company, one championed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. At issue: roughly $400 million the Wall Street giant believes it’s owed from a natural-gas trade that went wild when a deadly deep freeze hit Texas in February.

from bloomberg

==============================
whoa!! cowboy stand off!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 18 2021, 06:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/16/stock-marke...ock-market.html


‘canary in the coalmine

while stocks sold off, Fernandez says investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads were not flashing any warning signs.

The spread between 2-year Treasury yields and 10-year yields, for example, widened to just 148 basis points by Friday, up from 140 basis points at the lows of the week.

“That’s saying the credit market is not concerned right now,” said Fernandez. “We’re sitting in a pretty good spot with a higher VIX [and] a steady bond market. That’s usually positive news for equity markets going forward

=========================

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 09:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20210517-p57sji

CBA eats Westpac’s business lunch

“We were probably a little bit conservative on our credit settings in the last 12 months and we’ve reversed that,” he said in an analyst call to discuss the results.

Westpac’s chief financial officer, Michael Rowland, said business lending fell in the six months to March “due to modest demand across most sectors with larger declines in property, agri and professional services”.

“In business lending, we have lagged in the past, but we are starting to apply the same rigour we have brought to mortgages,” Rowland told analysts.

====================

smell the fight---- will it be a cat fight or something more .....??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

nice one for ALD

tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/bedlam-behi...20210516-p57scr

Bedlam behind penny stock’s 7500pc rise and fall

===============
ohmy.gif

market never changes!!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

A day after enduring its first 1% decline in nearly two months, the SPX logged its first 1% gain in almost three weeks. This clearly has changed the boring feel that we had grown accustomed to since April began



2

The head-fake above 4,220 negated a price target north of 4,300.



3
Yesterday’s bounce back got close to violating the recent downside break, too. And if the early strength holds through the close today, the 4,010-downside objective will be no longer, as well.



4

So far, 2021 has been DEFINED by whipsaw-like trading. In fact, if the most recent breakdown fails to achieve its target, it will be the third unsuccessful bearish formation. We’ve seen three failed bullish patterns, too.



5

In fact, only one breakout (or breakdown) actually played out – the early April edition.



6

If the first four and half months are any indication for the rest of the year, then we could be in for more of the same. More volatile back and forth movement.

===========================

SPX still in the uptrend ,

but my faith in asx200 has been shaken , like to see asx200 to stay above 7000 by the closing bell today!! unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 17 2021, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

US inflation data has been coming in higher than expected. Will it be the same in other parts of the world?

==========
what kimda question is that?? every man and his dog know that inflation is everywhere these days----given that much money has been printed from all central banks around world!! weirdsmiley.gif


======================
Last week, inflation data came in hot for April in the US. However, since the beginning of the month, manufacturing and jobs data were weaker than expected. Is the inflation truly transitory, as the Fed says, or stagflation coming our way? This week, we’ll get a better view as more inflation data is released from around the world. In addition, as mentioned in the last Week Ahead, while some countries continue to battle with the coronavirus and a shortage of vaccines, others are in the middle of their re-openings. On Monday, the UK continues with their re-opening, while the CDC in the US said masks are no longer necessary for fully vaccinated people. And although earnings season is coming to an end, we’ll get earnings from big retailers in the US this week!
===========================

time to raised rate all you central bankers!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

MY THOUGHTS ONLY

now we have another little property boom, witch is good for banks.

if economy is too hot they start to raise rate----then yield curve gonna go a lot steepen than now---we all know steepen yield curve is really good for bank's profits

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 02:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

yeah Mick

but people always say " don't fight the Fed"!! but this time marketers seems gonna go "revolution " they really gonna fight it's way out ....... lmaosmiley.gif
seems a lot of them don't like they've been lied on their face----"no inflation" yeah right!! WTF. EVERYTHING GOES UP BIG TIME!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 11:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Markets are losing faith in central banks
Bond vigilantes may stop believing the US central bank’s assurances that inflation is under control and take matters into their own hands.

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/markets-...20210514-p57rwl

=================

it's worst thing can happen to central banks-----------lost trust by the markets!! devilsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The bounce got a lot of attention, but USD remains in a downtrend… with a large amount of supply above it.

=================

but there isn't just Fed printing day and night, other central banks all do it. so how do we reserve the purchasing power?????????? unsure.gif

go long stocks, might be the only way!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 14 2021, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

After yesterday, a handful of NDX indicators have reached extreme lows, which suggests a near term Tech-led bounce attempt could be imminent.

Only 14% of the NDX components are trading above their 20 Day MAs. It last got close to 10% threshold near the March’21 lows.

Over 40% of NDX stocks are trading BELOW their respective Lower Bollinger Bands, too. That’s the highest % since March, 2020. It has gotten worse than this over the last few years at times, but not often.

The NDX, itself, is oversold vs. its Bollinger Bands, as depicted by the %B indicator. A short-term bounce resulted after each prior occurrence over the last three years. Again, during the most intense corrections/crashes of 2018 and 2020, this led to more pain before THE low was etched.

The NDX’s 14-Day RSI dropped to 34, which was the indicator’s low from March 5th, too. The other sell off over the last 12 months were never strong enough to push the indicator UNDER 30.

The NDX/SPX ratio now is oversold again for the first time since the March’21 lows. Back then, the indicator got down to 20 – the lowest since 1990

The NDX’s 7.8% drawdown, is NOT extreme compared to recent pullbacks. Thus, we’ll have to see how traders treat the next mean reverting move, whether it happens today or not.
=============

so judge by last night's action, Daq had rebound. whether it is dead cat, or something meaningful have to see a good follow on action.

================
Regarding, the SPX, the bearish target (4,010) will remain in play as long as the breakdown zone isn’t violated. Let’s recall that we’ve only seen ONE successful bearish pattern play out since July, 2020.

The pullback finally has shaken the SPX loose from the top of its trading channel. The drop has put it back in the middle of the pattern. In other words, the damage has been contained.

The drawdown is over 4%, which now is more in line with recent drops.
Using the March lows as the starting point, the SPX got close to the 38.2% retracement yesterday. and, of course, its 50 Day MA.

=====================

SPX had good rebound as well , this index looks a lot stronger than others!!

for asx200

i'd use same strategy as yesterday .
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 03:52 PM


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Posts: 13,556

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/13/chinas-agin...pply-chain.html

The trend of the old age dependency is going to rise … This is a warning not only for China, but also across the whole world, as China is the core of the supply chain,” Raymond Yeung, Greater China chief economist at ANZ, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

=====================

aging problem will hit most of the country!! that is sure thing, that is the reason i bought those aged care sector years before. but i did wrong timing---too early!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/austra...20210513-p57reu


Novavax’s CEO Stanley Erck this week said raw materials shortages had forced it to delay the process of getting its vaccine out into the market.

====
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/ne...flu/ar-BB1gFuYc

The test uses a fluorescent probe to search for antigens - proteins on the surface of a virus molecule - which may belong to either disease.

Since COVID and flu have similar symptoms, a fast yet highly accurate test like this will help quickly rule out one infection and potentially confirm the other so that patients only have to endure one of the unpleasant screenings.

And from a public health perspective, confirmation that someone has flu, coupled with a negative test for Covid will offer confidence that the person positive for flu doesn't need to quarantine, or be contact traced to prevent an outbreak.

The novel technology developed for this test may also be adapted in the future to test simultaneously for other diseases.


================ that would be good for economy as well i reckon.
if it works well, then a lot people will living in relatively normal life !!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 13 2021, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

US CPI jumped 4.2% YoY ahead of the 3.6% forecast. Stocks drop as investors anticipate an earlier move by the Fed.

Rising inflation concerns have been stalking the market all week. Today’s CPI data confirmed the markets’ fear that inflation is roaring higher.

US CPI for April came in at 4.2%, well ahead of the 3.6% forecast and up from 2.6% in March. On a monthly basis inflation surged 0.8% versus 0.2% expected and up from 0.6% last month.

Core inflation also shot higher 3% up from 1.6% in March.

The fact that the US Dollar surged and tech look set to take a hit suggests the market it pricing in a sooner move by the Fed to tighten policy. There is still another inflation print due before the Fed trade decision in June, and another jobs report.

However given surging inflation and commodity price the Fed may have to reconsider how transitory it believes inflation will be.

It’s only Wednesday and the tech heavy Nasdaq will want to be drawing a line under this week. After diving -2.5% at the start of the week, the Nadsaq futures are down a further 1.2% today after the inflation data, taking the hardest hit.

=====================
now most of central banks get what they wished for----INFLATION.
but the problem is ----when the beast coming in , it will be like wild fire storm ---fast furious, as all of them pumped in wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much paper cash into eco..

there is a english phrase, "be careful what you wish for"" is that right triage???

asx200 keep eye on 7000 the key level and stops will be at 6988ish if one wants to go long for the index.
by the way WBC NAB will be x--divy today!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 12 2021, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

hit over 1.06 this morning

seems my thoughts is on the card, the bid will be increased bit more.

also see EHE went up a lot [same sector but it is bigger, includes in asx200]

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 12 2021, 11:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

i had few info, but just too busy with other things.

stay out of market if one can sit on the sideline. if still want to investing , might look at commodity related stocks!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 08:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fryden...20210510-p57qll

budget is out
looks like big cash splash!!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The US dollar index (DXY) etched out a fresh low before finding support just above 90.00. Technically it could be due a bounce (however minor) but 90 remains the pivotal level over the coming session/s. Fundamentally there’s little reason to be bullish on the dollar but, technically at least, things are looking stretched down at those lows.
AUD/USD failed to hold onto earlier gains and formed a bearish pinbar which closed back beneath 0.7850 resistance. 0.7800 is the next level for bulls to defend over the near-term.
AUD/NZD saw another failed attempt to break above 1.0800. In yesterday’s report we suggested a daily close above this key level could hint at a bullish breakout, yet the bearish pinbar which closed beneath this key level keeps a break of its bullish trendline (from December’s low) a real possibility.
The Japanese yen caught a bid during a risk-off session on Wall Street, seeing GBP/JPY give bac earlier gains and form a bearish pinbar.

========================================

DYOR !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Ominous Signs on the Nasdaq 100
As per usual, it was technology and growth stocks which were the worst hit under the ‘inflationary fears’ scenario. The Nasdaq 100 was down -2.6% and sent several worrying signals to bulls. Closing beneath its 50-day eMA, yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle had no upper or lower wick (meaning it opened at the high and closed at the low of the day) and formed part of a three-bar bearish reversal formation (Evening Star Reversal). Given it now forms part of a lower high, the bias remains bearish beneath 13,815.

The Russell 2000 growth index fell -3.46% and the S&P 500 fell from its record high and closed on its 10-day eMA. The Dow Jones hit (and traded slightly beyond) our 35,000 target before giving back gains to close slightly lower, forming a bearish pinbar and warning of exhaustion at its record high.

European equities were mostly flat, with the Euro STOXX 600 index rising just 0.03%. The DAX was also flat yet held above Friday’s low, so the bullish bias outlined in yesterday’s video remains intact.

===========================
still playing that "sell in May" card!! ohmy.gif


asx200 future looked grim after it just closed at all time high!! really thought it will keeps march higher , blush.gif

stay put for today as picture gets really confused!!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 11 2021, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

North America’s biggest petroleum pipeline is in a race against time to overcome a cyberattack before regional reserves run dry. Colonial Pipeline said segments of its Texas-to-New Jersey line are being reactivated in steps, and pledged that most service would be restored by the weekend. The issue now is whether inventories held in storage tanks are enough to satisfy demand while Colonial works on resuming operations. The closing of the nation’s biggest fuel pipeline system illustrates the risk facing America’s infrastructure when it comes to disruption by bad actors, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Monday. “It tells you how utterly vulnerable we are,” she said. The success of yet another massive cyberattack raises a question the U.S. has been hearing a lot lately: how can this keep happening?

The hack of Colonial is a novel form of cybercrime that puts normally staid corporate entities in the vise of an old-school extortion scheme. And guess which country the White House thinks may have played a part


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-...secretary-video

=======================

this time is Russia,
next will be Chieainna! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 03:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556


8.91 as i type,
not sure where support for this one, 6---7 bucks ??? unsure.gif
====================================

today it hit low of 5.93. the down beat seems gonna keep going.
i guess a2m have to come up with something like "" drink a2m , u can immune from covid-19"" , for sure SP gonna flight up again!! sound joke?? in current world , you never know!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

closed little over 95 bucks last Friday
think it will go a lot lower, from TA point of view
FA ......... well old buggs like us never like the idea in first place!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The US dollar index printed a bearish engulfing / outside week, suggesting a break below 90.0 could be imminent.

=================

the chart looks scary as it is, but think it will be hold last support at this stage, worth to keep close eye on it for traders and investors!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 10 2021, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

It was a mixed picture on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closing to at a record high, the Russel 2000 closing flat for the week yet finding support above its 10-week eMA for a fifth consecutive week, and the Nasdaq 100 closing at a four week low yet above its 10-week eMA.

The ASX 200 is making hard work of breaking above 7,100. Given May is usually a bearish month for the index, and that bulls are struggling to take full control, we are mindful of its potential to roll over the coming week/s. Yet defining a bearish entry point is not easy either, with so many overlapping candles at these highs. That said, we would consider a daily close beneath 6993 as a sign that the market has topped, and a daily close above 7100 a sign that perhaps this bull trend still has legs.

=====================

after "shocking" US NFP [ not shock to me] things have little change
not giving up asx200 to march all time high yet!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: May 9 2021, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Judging by the negative reaction to the interim profits from the ANZ and NAB this week, it was a disappointing half way reporting season.

ANZ and NAB shares got the thumbs down from investors and the shares fell after the results were released even though they were better than expected.

Westpac saw a more positive reception with a 5% rise on Monday after the result was released but that was undermined by the latest allegations from ASIC against the bank about insider trading in the way a big finance deal was to be protected in money markets.

But in reality the three results – and that from industry leader, the Commonwealth in February – were good – not as upbeat as say four years ago, but certainly better than the Covid-damaged interims a year ago.

And they had to be because of the amount of stimulus and support for banks and the economy from governments and regulators.

If the results had not revealed significant improvements and higher dividends than a year ago, then all the tens of billions of dollars in support would have been for nothing.

And the banks have had some significant support – they have borrowed $100 billion from the Reserve Bank under its Term Funding facility with another $100 billion on offer until June 30 (and these are three-year loans that expire in 2024 which is the year when we will see some real pressures on the banks and some of the customers).

The cash rate is 0.10% and will be maintained until 2024 at least. That will protect net interest margins for the next three years.

Cash profits of the big four jumped 62% in the March half year to $13.8 billion.

The Commonwealth led the way with cash earnings for the half year of $3.89 billion and an interim dividend of a large $1.50; Westpac had cash earnings of $3.54 billion and an interim dividend of 58 cents a share; NAB reported cash profits of $3.34 billion and a 70 cents a share dividend and the ANZ’s cash earnings were $2.99 billion and the dividend was 60 cents a share.

In its usual end of reporting season assessment of big bank profits, accounting firm EY said that the Australian major banks’ half year results “reflect a more positive operating environment than might have been expected this time last year.”

“Fears of large-scale defaults on housing and business debt have eased with the steady economic recovery. While the banks still face an increase in nonperforming loans as a result of the economic downturn, it appears at this stage that the rise will be modest.

“Aggregate cash earnings improved, following the significant credit provisioning undertaken in the first half of 2020. Organic capital generation and a reduction in risk-weighted assets (RWA) have further strengthened the banks’ capital position and have ensured substantial buffers against potential future shocks.”

EY said however bank earnings and profitability “remain under pressure in an environment of ultra-low interest rates and aggressive mortgage competition.”

“Net interest margin (NIM) was declined 6 bps. NIM is expected to remain an ongoing challenge for the banks, given low interest rates and highly supportive monetary conditions that are likely to continue over the medium-term. Average return on equity (ROE) improved to 10.4%, from 6.5% pcp.

(For 2019-20, the big four banks cash earnings totalled $17.4 billion and return on equity was 6.7%, the lowest for 30 years).

And looking to the future, EY said that despite the stronger economic outlook (the RBA revised growth, jobs and inflation forecasts higher this week), “risks are still elevated.”

“The full impact of the economic downturn on asset quality is still playing out, with forbearance programs and income support measures only recently drawing to a close.

“Uncertainty remains around the impact of domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, new variants of the virus and a delayed vaccination rollout that could prolong the pandemic and slow down the economic recovery,“ EY wrote in the report.

EY said the banks’ immediate priorities continue to be managing credit risk and capital and continuing their simplification and digitisation strategies to boost efficiency (ie cut costs).

“They also have a heightened focus on the environmental, social and governance (ESG) agenda, with the pandemic concentrating attention on sustainability.”

------------------------------------------------- from our own share cafe

look at this
-------------------
NAB reported cash profits of $3.34 billion and a 70 cents a share dividend and the ANZ’s cash earnings were $2.99 billion and the dividend was 60 cents a share.

----------------------
most of peoples whom focus on banks knew that should be

==============
ANZ reported cash profits of $3.34 billion and a 70 cents a share dividend and the NAB 's cash earnings were $2.99 billion and the dividend was 60 cents a share.

==============

knida mistake i should be made by someone like me, not these "pro-- analysts" right???? lmaosmiley.gif

joke aside , i reckon ANZ , NAB just caught with " sell on good news" saga given they both SP run up a lot till before their earning release . nothing to worry about it

i reckon..... if they keep low rate for longer then there is property boom. witch is good for the banks

if they gonna raise rate sooner ... then banks profit margin will increase-----good for banks

so one way or the other-----------good for banks for one or two years IMHO though!! tongue.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 7 2021, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXgAjzwP4Go

exp, gonna make danville laughing or smilling. lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 7 2021, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The US Dollar is edging lower despite strong recent data. This is most likely owing to its safe haven status. With the reopening optimism growing, investors are shunning the greenback for riskier currencies. Equally, the Fed’s insistence that policy won’t be tightened soon could also be keeping the greenback depressed.

==============

Fed sees the danger of USD going a lot lower, it start to jawbone it!! blush.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 7 2021, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

A rising appetite for risk across a variety of asset markets is stretching valuations and creating peril in the U.S. financial system, the Federal Reserve warned. “Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard, the head of the Board’s financial stability committee, said in a statement accompanying the report released Thursday. “The combination of stretched valuations with very high levels of corporate indebtedness bear watching because of the potential to amplify the effects of a re-pricing event.” —David E. Rovella

=================

seems Fed gonna raise rate sooner?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://au.yahoo.com/news/two-aussie-men-in...-045707658.html

The two males, one from Queensland and the other from Tasmania, are believed to be the latest to suffer from the extremely rare side-effect of the vaccine.

The Queenslander, 66, is being treated in intensive care, state Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said.

Dr Young says the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) believe his illness is the direct result of the AstraZeneca vaccine.



The Tasmanian health department also announced a 70-year-old man was being treated for suspected blood clotting in hospital. He is in a stable condition.

He reported symptoms seven days ago after receiving the vaccine, authorities say.

==================

the problem is they both are over 50's.......................... i'm not a anti vax kinda, but do worry about safety ...............
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 12:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dead-b...20210506-p57pa3

Here are the highlights from the press conference:

One new case in NSW in addition to the one reported yesterday. It’s the wife of the man who tested positive on Wednesday.
New restrictions will come into place from 5pm today in greater Sydney and will be lifted at midnight on Monday.
These include the use of masks on public transport and indoors, limits on household visitors and restrictions on singing and dancing at different venues.
Testing has revealed the Bondi man shares a COVID-19 strain with a returned traveller from the US who is in quarantine. It’s not known how the virus got from the traveller to the infected man.
Health authorities are hunting for the “missing link” who could be in the community. They are reviewing CCTV footage and interviewing quarantine staff.
The returned traveller has an Indian variant of the virus but NSW Chief Health Officer says it’s not a strain of concern.

======================

knew it will be chaos!! sadsmiley02.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Potential NFP market reaction

The US dollar gave back most of March’s gains through the month of April, with most major currencies gaining 200-300 pips against the world’s reserve currency last month. With the greenback getting off to a better start to the month of May, the NFP report could set the tone for the remainder of the month.

After the sharp selloff in April, the nascent US dollar rally could extend further if we see a strong US jobs report. In that scenario, readers may want to look at USD/JPY as a potential long candidate, with room for the pair to rally back toward previous highs in the mid-110.00s after retracing 38.2% of its Q1 rally last month.

On the other hand, a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report could create a sell opportunity in USD/CAD (pending the simultaneous release of the Canadian jobs report) if it can break below multi-year lows near 1.2250.

====================

think of AUD/USD might pop up on good reading of NFP as well!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 09:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

, hopes are high heading into this week’s NFP Report, with potential to see over 1,000,000 net new jobs for the first time in eight months as the country gradually opens up amidst widespread vaccine distribution. In addition to the strong headline jobs reading, economists are also looking for the unemployment rate to tick down to 5.8% and average hourly earnings to come in flat month-over-month:

NFP forecast

As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report:

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 58.8, up a point and a half from last month’s 57.2 reading.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 55.1, down more than 4% from last month’s 59.6 reading.
The ADP Employment report came in at 742K net new jobs, an improvement over last month’s upwardly-revised 565K reading, though still below the 872K reading expected.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to 612K, down sharply from 719k last month.

===================

a gyration for SPX tonight


asx200 going to pop up again at our cash market again?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 6 2021, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

For the ANZ it looks like a case of ‘sell on the news’ and take profits after the shares dipped yesterday in the wake of a solid recovery in interim earnings and a higher dividend.

The shares eased 3.2% to $27.90, down more than $1.20 from the most recent high on Monday of $29.10.

Up to Wednesday ANZ shares had jumped 25%, continuing the surge that really started last November.

With a cautiously upbeat outlook from CEO, Shayne Elliott, a rise in the share price might have been in prospect, especially after local investors shrugged off Wall Street wobbles on Tuesday, especially in tech stocks.

What made the weakness even odder was the clear outperformance by the bank in the six months to March 31, as it topped market forecasts for profits and the size of the dividend.

What did worry some investors was the size of the write-back to the P&L line of $491 million of the $1.7 billion in provisions from the first half of 2020.

ANZ reported a statutory profit after tax of $2.943 million and cash earnings from continuing operations of $2.990 million.

This was up 45% and 28%, respectively, on the second half of FY 2020 (first half comparisons are skewed by the huge one off provisions in the first half of 2020).

Boosting ANZ’s result was that write back (or a net credit provision release) of $491 million for the half. This is up from a net release of $150 million during the first quarter.

Interim dividend of 70 cents a share was above the 60 cents a share forecast from most analysts.

CEO Shayne Elliott, advised that all sides of the business performed well, which was complemented by cost reductions.

In a statement he said the outlook was still not clear:

“There is still significant uncertainty. You only need to look at how the pandemic is playing out overseas, as well as recent lock-downs, to realise how quickly the situation can escalate.”

“ANZ is in a strong position both financially and operationally. We are well capitalised and our disciplined approach to costs over many years has us well placed to invest in opportunities to grow our business in targeted segments.

“The work to digitise core processes and platforms continues at pace and this will be more visible to customers towards the end of the year.

He said: “Following the trends of the first quarter, all parts of our business performed well. Costs were down 2% and we also increased investment in new digital capability that will provide ongoing productivity improvements and better customer outcomes.”

“Australia Retail & Commercial had another good half, becoming the third largest home lender in the market. Deposits performed well, with retail and small business customers behaving prudently by building solid savings and offset balances through the half,” he added.

The fall in institutional bank revenues was in line with expectations as Mr Elliott explained:

“Lower revenues in our Institutional business were largely expected due to the impact of falling interest rates as well as a normalisation of Markets revenue after an exceptionally strong 2020.

“Our disciplined focus on credit management has been a positive with our largest customers going into the pandemic from a position of strength and adapting fast to the rapidly changing environment.”

And the New Zealand business performed strongly.

“New Zealand continued its recent strong performance with record lending growth combined with disciplined cost management. This is a well-run business that is an important part of our overall portfolio and is well-placed to manage increased regulatory capital demands.”

Unlike Westpac which is reviewing its NZ presence, the ANZ is not looking at departing that market.

…………

As opposed to the ANZ and Westpac, the two other big banks were in favour yesterday.

Shares in Commonwealth Bank closed at a six-year peak of $92.72, the highest they have been since April 2015.

National Australia Bank shares closed at $27.37 after touching an intraday high of $27.84, the highest level seen since November 2019. NAB reports first half results Thursday morning.

===========================

from our own sharecafe
good old "sell on news" always work!! lmaosmiley.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 5 2021, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-educa...20210505-p57p4t

Ms Berejiklian said it had helped that the man was “being so fussy” about signing in.

The venues he visited including the Event Cinema in Bondi Junction, a restaurant in Rushcutters Bay and a number of barbecque shops around the eastern and western suburbs over the weekend.

===============

F£$$%ing hell, !!! thought we already get rid off this nasty shity. man!! seems another chaos gonna come,

weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 5 2021, 11:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

finally asx200 hit through 7100,
now it aim at all time high 7220ish, but i can't see it clearer as market start to prepare for the rate rise sooner.

have to just trade the way . my bet is asx200 gonna over come all time high!! it's just me ---biased!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 5 2021, 10:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aklkRc88wTo

love eagles!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 5 2021, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/chi...ion/ar-BB1gmyLg

These are tax levels akin to expropriation and this is going to inhibit investment immediately," he said. In addition to the state-owned Codelco, Chile is host to mining operations by BHP Group Ltd, Anglo American Plc, Glencore Plc, Antofagasta Minerals and Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

===============

not big deal but something to keep eye on it

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 5 2021, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The Reserve Bank will keep the key cash rate steady at 10 basis points (0.10%) but has started moving to cut the size of its support packages for lending and the economy to accommodate the strengthening conditions.

In the usual statement issued after Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, Governor Philip Lowe also again reiterated rates are unlikely to rise before 2024.

But his post-meeting statement revealed sharp upgrades to growth and jobs forecasts for the next year or so, with inflation now seen a touch higher because of the faster pace of activity in the economy.

This faster path of growth and a healthy financial system has seen the RBA decide to end one of its key support measures for banks and other lenders – its Term Funding Facility.

It will not be extended beyond the end of the current financial year. This gives banks until the end of June to draw down on the first $100 billion. A second $100 billion is still available until the end of June this year. Loans made under the TFF end in 2024.

Dr Lowe said that the bank still intends deciding at its July meeting if it will shift its three-year yield curve target from the April 2024 bond to the November 2024 bond, and discuss whether to extend the current $100 billion bond purchasing program.

“The Board is not considering a change to the target of 10 basis points,” he made clear yesterday in yesterday’s post meeting statement.

“At the July meeting, the Board will also consider future bond purchases following the completion of the second $100 billion of purchases under the government bond purchase program in September. The Board is prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation. The Board places a high priority on a return to full employment,” Dr Lowe said.

Governor Lowe also said inflation remains below the central bank’s targets, but employment growth has been strong. The RBA now expects to see economic growth of 4.75% in 2021 (up from 3.5%) and 3.5% in 2022 (unchanged), and an unemployment rate of 4.5% in late 2022, down from 5.5%.

As for inflation, that may peak at 3% (as he has said previously) in the current quarter then fall to 1.5% in 2021 and 2% in mid 2023 (2021’s forecast unchanged and 1.5% in the February forecasts.

Mr Lowe again said the bank would be monitoring lending standards given the recent growth in housing prices.

…………

Two top tier data sets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal the continuing buoyancy of Australian economic activity as it emerges from the Covid lockdowns and restrictions.

On the one hand lending finance for housing hit new highs in March, but on the other side, the trade surplus for the month tumbled to a four-month low.

The loss of income from inbound tourism and overseas students having a small impact but the real killer has been the drop in goods exports in recent months, and especially over the past year.

That fall is despite continuing high iron ore prices, the recovery in oil and LNG prices, near record copper prices and buoyant wool meat and cereal prices (and volumes for the rural products in the wake of the ending of the drought).

After revealing a monthly merchandise trade surplus for March of more than $US8.1 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday revealed the full surplus for the month had tumbled to $5.57 billion.

That was more than $2 billion less than the $7.59 billion recorded in February and a massive $4 billion under the $9.5 billion in January.

That was after exports fell 2% or $681 million to $38.274m and imports rose 4% or $1.340 billion to $32.700 billion.

A year ago, at the start of the pandemic-driven slump in the economy and imports, the March trade surplus surged to more than $10.6 billion.

So the fall over the year has been almost 50%.

The culprit for the fall, according to the trade data yesterday and last week was non-monetary gold (imported to be processed and then exported), according to AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver.

“Exports fell 1.7%, reflecting a 25% decline in non-monetary gold exports,” Dr Oliver wrote on Tuesday.

“Excluding this exports would have risen on the back of strong exports of iron ore and non-grain exports offsetting a fall in wheat and coal exports.Imports rose 4.3% with a broad based increase.”

Dr Oliver said that Net exports are expected to detract around 1.5 percentage points from March quarter GDP growth with export volumes estimated to be down and import volumes up. Despite the month-to-month volatility, trade surpluses are expected to remain solid.”

…………

Meanwhile, ABS figures on Tuesday showed new housing loan commitments 5.5% in March 2021 (seasonally adjusted) to a new record high of $30.2 billion as more and more investors moved back into thew market.

In fact the ABS data shows that lending to investors accounted for more than half of the March rise in housing loans.

The value of new loan commitments for investor housing rose 12.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in March 2021 (seasonally adjusted), 54.3% higher than in March 2020 which is understandable given that March last year is when the recession started thanks to the pandemic-driven lockdowns and closing of the borders.

ABS head of Finance and Wealth, Katherine Keenan, said on Tuesday that: “Investor lending has seen a sustained period of growth since the 20 year low seen in May 2020.

“The rise in March is the largest recorded since July 2003 and was driven by increased loan commitments to investors for existing dwellings.”

“The value of new loan commitments for owner occupier housing rose 3.3 per cent to $22.4 billion in March 2021, 55.6 per cent higher than March 2020. This rise was driven by an 8.8 per cent rise in the value of loan commitments for existing dwellings.”

The value of owner occupier loan commitments for the construction of new dwellings fell 14.5 per cent, the first fall since the HomeBuilder grant was introduced in June 2020. The HomeBuilder grant was cut from $25k to $15k effective from 1 January 2021.

Dr Oliver says the rise in interest from investors will see further rises in house prices.

“The resurgence in investor financing and the continuing surge in owner occupiers who are trading up points to further near-term strength in home prices. It also points to a further acceleration in housing debt, a further rise in the share of interest only loans and increasing lending at high loan to valuation ratios.

“All of which is increasing pressure on the RBA and APRA to move to tighten lending standards in order to head off increasing risks of financial instability – which we expect to occur sometime in the next six months,” Dr Oliver said in a note Tuesday afternoon.

==============================

from our own sharecafe.
seems rate gonna rise sooner than people thinks!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: May 5 2021, 08:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The US Dollar is rebounding after weakness on Monday following disappointing manufacturing PMI data. The reopening trade is lifting the greenback as investors question the Fed’s ability to keep monetary policy lose in the face of a roaring reopening economy.

AUD/USD is underperforming its peers despite the RBA upwardly revising growth forecasts. There was still no mentioning of tightening monetary policy until 2024.

============

it's day oil TA . but seems still valid .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: May 4 2021, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/westpac-hir...20210503-p57oj6


$50b in funds, 115k investors, 3.5k advisers

===============

are they try to hard. sound like they want sell everything [ baby with bath water??]]

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 4 2021, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/bill-gates-...litting-up.html

Bill Gates and Melinda Gates are splitting up after 27 years


==============

how this happened ?? the media always made me believe the marriage truly will be [till death do the apart]!!
kinda in disbelieve !!

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: May 3 2021, 10:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-ser...20210503-p57o9o

Westpac bounces back, 256pc rise in profit

Westpac’s cash earnings came in higher than analysts’ expectations, and so did the interim dividend of 58¢ per share. Westpac reinstated its dividend and is paying out 60 per cent of its profits, after deferring its first-half dividend in 2020 before electing not to pay one, and in 2019 paying out 94¢ a share.


================

i try to hold this dog little bit longer-----as property market boom again!!
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 1 2021, 04:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

i hold this aged care stocks , has been hit real hard during the virus last year.

today it received unbinding bid....... indicate $1.04 per share. i reckon the bid could increase to 1.10---1.20. imho though, and i'm biased !

=============

i made it to the wrong code. . forgive me!! not many readers on this one anyway!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: May 1 2021, 04:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

you are right nipper!! suppose to be JHC. lmaosmiley.gif

sorry , wrong code!! i'm a such bad ramper am i?? lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Apr 30 2021, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

i hold this aged care stocks , has been hit real hard during the virus last year.

today it received unbinding bid....... indicate $1.04 per share. i reckon the bid could increase to 1.10---1.20. imho though, and i'm biased !

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Apr 30 2021, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Commodities: Oil extends its lead, gold falls from 200-day eMA
Oil extended its lead to a six-week high on higher oil demand forecasts and positive economic data. WTI currently trades around 64.80 and its next resistance levels are 66.40 and 67.98, whilst next major resistance for brent is 70.0.

It was a volatile session for gold, initially rising to test its 200-day eMA but falling over 1% due to rising yields and stronger economic data. Whilst our core view remains bullish, yesterday’s bearish outside candle pierced 1760 support, so we’d prefer to step aside until volatility subsides.

====================

oil looked strong even with weekly chart.... ... shake my head.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 30 2021, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

ASX 200 Market Internals:
We’re expecting a soft open looking at futures markets. Although the ASX 200 found resistance at the April high anyway, so the bias is bearish early on in the session. However, PMI data is released for Japan, China and Australia over the next few hours, so we could be in for some volatility around current levels to be on for a break either way, which makes 7094 – 7100 a pivotal zone today (and potentially next week).
=======================
still bullish like me.! lmaosmiley.gif

---------------
SPX had scary start, but it did well to rallied back above 4200----i guess it is end of the month thing.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2021, 10:18 AM


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Posts: 13,556

The US dollar index (DXY) printed a large bearish engulfing candle after a small, two-day pullback, which strongly suggests the swing high in place at 91.13. Given it closed just beneath 90.63 support yesterday, we remain bearish below yesterday’s high and would be keen to see any small volatility retracements within yesterday’s range to consider fading into, or simply wait for a break of yesterday’s low to assume bearish continuation.


AUD/USD traded to a high of 0.7800 having found support at its 20-day eMA with a bullish hammer on the daily chart.
NZD/USD broke to a new cycle high with a bearish outside day, and a break above 0.7270 swing high (bearish engulfing candle) assumes bullish continuation.


==================

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 29 2021, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The Fed left policy unchanged as widely expected, although added that inflation has risen due to “transitory factors” such as the “basing effect”. This basically means the fed will continue to look past inflation overshoots, so there will be no change of policy.

The S&P 500 printed a new intraday record high but failed to hold onto earlier gains, closing the day with a bearish Rikshaw Man Doji pattern (on a closing basis, the index has effectively closed flat for the past three days). The Nasdaq 100 fell to a four-day low but found support at its 10-day eMA. The Dow Jones fell to a three-day low but ultimately remains rangebound between 33,678 – 34,256. Its hard to build a bear case, there is also a hesitancy to break higher imminently on Wall Street.

Yesterday’s weak CPI print helped send the ASX 200 to a two-day high, and Tuesday’s bullish hammer reaffirmed support at 7,000 which suggests a swing low is in place. So, whilst our bias remains bullish above 7,000, we need to see a break above 7,100 to confirm trend resumption.

==================================================

ASX200 will the price over come 7100 or just make a double top??? unsure.gif
i for one think it will overcome 7100 and hit all time high within a week!! it's just me!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 28 2021, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/travel/news/austr...ust/ar-BB1g7uMD

Australia may receive doses of the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine by August or September, blowing past initial estimates.
Speaking before the Senate Select Committee on Tuesday, Health Department Secretary Dr Brendan Murphy said the company is "confident" it can deliver those doses by Q3.
Supply chain issues have hamstrung the manufacturer, which the Health Department initially hoped would deliver as early as the first half of 2021.
Visit Business Insider Australia’s homepage for more stories.

=============================

no novavax till later this year?? we can wait it if it is safer to use.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 28 2021, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The ASX 200 printed a large bearish pinbar last week, and prices have remained soft for the past three sessions. Whilst there was a mild recovery yesterday, they remain beneath 7036 resistance which could prove to ab a pivotal level this session.
=============

DYOR.
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 28 2021, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The SPX continues to make marginal new highs, but so far, the index has been unable to punch through the top of a tight two-week trading range. This has defined the price action for the second half of April.



2

That’s not a negative, of course; in fact, the bobbing and weaving has been needed to take at least a little bit of pressure off some of the more stretched indicators.

==========
another solid day for SPX LAST NIGHT.

asx200 seems in the selling mode since last friday. thought it would follow SPX go a lot higher by now. might be strong AUD did hold index back?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 28 2021, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The boom in iron ore prices continues and South Korean steelmaker Posco on Monday provided a good explanation as to why that is happening – business is going very well indeed for one of the world’s major steel companies.

The company confirmed updated guidance issued in March that it earned $US1.39 billion in the March quarter on revenue of more than $US18 billion. That was almost double the $US635 million earned in the first quarter of 2020.

It was the company’s highest quarterly profit since the second quarter of 2011, as steel prices rose sharply due to demand outpacing supply and the surge in iron ore costs as well.

The world’s fifth-biggest steelmaker said first-quarter operating profit surged 120% as “profit from all sectors, such as steel, global and infrastructure, and new growth, improved”, including a 12% sequential jump in the price of its basic carbon steel product.

Posco buys a lot of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and hasn’t been averse to paying the near record prices of more than $US180 a tonne for the 62% fe fines product from Australia or the 65%.

It owns 12.5% of the Roy Hill project in the Pilbara (now the world’s fifth largest iron ore company) and buys more than 6 million tonnes of ore a year based on its shareholding.

It buys millions of tonnes of metallurgical coal from Australia as well – more than 25 million tonnes a year.

It has invested close to $5 billion in mining operations in NSW and Queensland (met coal) and iron ore in WA (Roy Hill). In 2019-20 it bought around $8 billion worth of mostly coal and iron ore (the value is running much higher this year because iron ore prices have more than doubled in the past year).

In an earnings call, Posco said it expected steel supply from Australia, Brazil and South Africa to rise in the second half of the year after falling in the first quarter.

It said steel prices were likely to stabilise gradually compared to the first half as demand was expected to fall slightly because of output cuts in China due to tougher environmental curbs.

Global steel demand is expected to grow by 5.8% this year, higher than the 4.1% estimate from last October, as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuelling demand from the rebounding auto and construction sectors, the World Steel Association said this month.

The story is the same in China – strong demand, high economies of scale and solid pricing means record or near record profits and the ability to pay more for iron ore from Australia and Brazil, which means big profits for BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals, Roy Hill and Vale from Brazil.

===============

from our own sharecafe....
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 28 2021, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

it makes you sick to see all of the Govt. and those shity peoples use covid as a political tool, they don't give a shit about everyday little poor peoples life !!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 27 2021, 12:16 PM


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Posts: 13,556

i for one think it will test that 7100ish again today!! imho though!!

==================

weirdsmiley.gif , it went opposite to my " prediction". test 7000 and bounced so far. bought few weighing stocks see how it goes !!
asx200 index long has been stopped out!! might go long again if it can close above 7025 by end of cash market!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 27 2021, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Commodities:
Oil prices are refusing to break higher, yet both WTI and brent futures have reaffirmed their support levels. Rising coronavirus cases in India are weighing on prices, but not by enough to send prices lower. Perhaps the US supplying vaccine doses could help prices break higher in due course.

Gold produced a small bullish hammer yesterday and prices remains above the untested 1760/65 support zone. Our bias remains bullish above this level and the next target remains at 1835, projected from the double bottom pattern from 1676.

Silver remains in a corrective phase in a bullish channel and printed a small bullish engulfing candle yesterday. Our bias remains bullish above the 25.50/62 support zone.

=====================

wondering where is all these bullish steam come from?? unsure.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 27 2021, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The US dollar index (DXY) printed a bearish engulfing candle on Friday, perfectly respecting the 91.30 resistance level. Our bias remains bearish below 91.40 and the target is the base of the (broken) trendline at 89.90. However, yesterday produced an indecision candle (Rikshaw Man Doji) above 90.63 support, so perhaps we’re approaching a period of consolidation.

AUD/USD printed a bullish engulfing candle yesterday, strongly suggesting 0.7690 to be a structural swing low. A break above 0.7850 assumes trend continuation.

===============

07850 for AUD ?? thought it will go little higher than that. unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 27 2021, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

ASX 200 Market Internals:
The ASX 200 fell -0.2% yesterday during a session of light trade. Although it printed a (small) bearish outside day, we remain confident that it remains in an uptrend which has been reinforced by the large bullish hammer last Wednesday. The trend remains bullish above 6900 although, if it is truly in an uptrend, should not have to retrace that far to bring into question the trends strength. Our bias remains bullish above 7,000, but the 6956 high can also be used to aid with risk management.
===============

not just TA, even FA looks good for asx market imho [ i'm little biased]

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 27 2021, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

So far in 2021, seasonality has worked well. A trading high was notched in February; a trading low was etched in March and so far, April has been decidedly higher, which all has lined up with the 20 year “average” intra-month movement.



2

Another trend that we’ve seen since last June that is NOT talked about as much is the appearance of late month weakness. While this hasn’t happened every month, it’s something to monitor, as some of those weak periods have resembled topping patterns, as well.



3
Even as the uptrend has persisted in 2021, there have been a few scares (late January, February and March). We wouldn’t exactly label last week’s digestion as a “scare,” but it was the first slowdown we’ve seen since the March lows.



4
Now, if/when a bigger drawdown happens again soon, let’s remember how the prior tops played out… they didn’t. The downside break attempts were temporary, which only resulted in bear traps – and ultimately new highs yet again.



5

Among others, the R2k IWM ETF and the Small Cap Growth IWO ETF both punched through two month downtrend lines last week. Those were necessary FIRST steps.



6

The US Dollar is holding where and when it needs to – near a three-month uptrend line. Seeing how it does if/when it reencounters the 50 Day MA near 91.66 will be telling.

The 10 Year Yield is bouncing near the 50 Day MA and challenging an important multi-week downtrend line.



9

Uranium is trying to bounce near its 50 Day MA for the third time this year. Prior attempts led to strong multi-week rallies.

======================================

another solid day for SPX last night session. the bulls in USA seems unstoppable .

asx200 future still weak from yesterday, not sure why it has not follow the US market?? unsure.gif
i for one think it will test that 7100ish again today!! imho though!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 26 2021, 02:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

hi plastic.
need a honest answer from you....
do you own any Novavax share??? [ don't take it wrong way, just to see that you are biased or not??]
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 26 2021, 02:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

hi plastic.
need a honest answer from you....
do you own any Novavax share??? [ don't take it wrong way, just to see that you are biased or not??]
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 26 2021, 08:27 AM


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Posts: 13,556

As copper is an industrial metal, the price of copper is said to show the health of the world economy. A strong copper price shows that the economy is strong and will be growing in leaps and bounds. A weak copper price shows that the economy is frail, and the world economy may be contracting. As a result, the commodity has received the nickname “Doctor Copper”. Copper has been in a strong uptrend since putting in pandemic lows in March 2020. On February 23rd, the metal took out all time highs near 4.19, only to pullback 2 days later. Price pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows of February 2nd to the highs of February 23rd, just above 3.83. In doing so, copper formed a rounded bottom in an uptrend. Copper is testing the February 23rd highs of 4.3645, currently trading at 4.336. If price holds the resistance, first support is the highs from 2011 near 4.1904. Below there is an upward sloping trendline from October 2nd, 2020 near 3.97. If price holds either of these support levels and then moves higher, it will form a cup-and-handle pattern. The target for a cup-and-handle formation is the height of the “cup” added to the breakout point, which would be near 4.85!

With more central banks meetings this week, bigtime tech earnings, and continued increases in coronavirus cases in many parts of the world, this week will provide traders with tons of information. Throw in recent strong economic data, end of month price action, and stocks near all time highs, and markets may see some volatility heading into May!

Have a great weekend and please remember to always wash your hands.

=======================

thought there will be a lot less of "Dr. copper", more of "Dr. oil" these days. but still people put doctor copper as major indicator..... ohmy.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 25 2021, 05:50 PM


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Posts: 13,556

opps

a IT friend told me to shut off the power line then start it again. ----IT WORKED!! tongue.gif

thanks anyway!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 25 2021, 05:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

hi nipper
i just had an issue with ethernet this arvo. nbn looked ok. but my computer can't connecting internet, they told me that my power line carries the nbn to ethernet had problem.[[ never have this type of problem before, not sure what the hell is going on], have to switch to wireless [ little slower] to connecting to internet.
is that caused by new tech[ 5G] or something??? unsure.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 23 2021, 09:24 PM


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Posts: 13,556

https://au.yahoo.com/news/three-more-rare-b...-110609142.html

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) said on Friday a 35-year-old NSW woman, a 49-year-old Queensland man and an 80-year-old Victorian man all suffered blood clots.

===================

a 80 years old?? so , over 50s still been hit with blood clot!! unsure.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 23 2021, 10:10 AM


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Posts: 13,556

The US dollar was the strongest major, thanks to a combination of weaker equity prices and better than employment data. US jobless claims fell to a 13-month low of 574k, down from 765k previously, which more than beat the estimated rise to 617k claims.


AUD/USD fell to a six-day low and probed 0.7700 support. NZD/USD fared slightly better with a fall to a four-day low and appears to be the marginally stronger of the two (as seen with a falling AUD/NZD).
AUD/JPY continues to suggest it is topping out on the daily charts. A bearish engulfing candle closed just above the 50-day eMA, but a break beneath 83.00 takes it to fresh lows an bring the 82.50 target into focus (just above the 82.00/30 lows.


==================================

trading them with pure TA .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 23 2021, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

ASX, we doubt US tax news will weigh on it much today. Yesterday, the ASX 200 broke above Wednesday’s hammer high from the get-go, which further suggests the ‘buying tail’ above 6900 has conviction. Barring a sudden shift in sentiment (locally or globally), the bias remains for a run for, and beyond, 7100. However, also take note that like its European counterparts, the ASX 200 is also forming a large bearish hammer, so it would need to close convincingly above this week’s highs to help eradicate that technical warning next week. Ultimately, today’s bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low.

==========
it is Friday, traders will close their positions [long or short].

SPX looked bearish -----at least for a short term pull back?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 23 2021, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

At the close last Friday, 97% of S&P 500 member companies were above their respective 200-day moving averages (the strongest market breadth since late 2009). Further supporting the medium-term outlook is the remaining wall-of-worry to be climbed. And generally, the ongoing economic expansion continues to underpin this bull market.


In the near-term, the market appears to be ahead of itself relative to its 2009 analog. And a healthy correction may be overdue. The log trend channel chart suggests the same. The current glass-half-full perspective can easily give way to a glass-half-empty perspective for any number of reasons. A scary 10% correction should not be a surprise, but of course that might only start 10% higher from here. The sooner the healthier in my view.


To take a step back and make a broader comment, Soros once wrote “Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. A boom-bust process is set in motion when a trend and a misconception positively reinforce each other. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way. If the trend is strong enough to survive the test, both the trend and the misconception will be further reinforced.”


The term “bubble” has lost its meaning from overuse. The key point is that market booms are interrupted and reinforced by successful tests. One could argue that the market has successfully passed a number of tests over the past year and a half. The myth that “house prices never go down” was started or reinforced by how well the housing market fared through the dotcom bust. Some argue the noticed resiliency set the stage for the subsequent housing bubble. Now the mantra is “stocks only go up.” The speed of the market’s recovery after the Covid crash—and its continued rise through the hedge fund de-grossing in late January (the GameStop/Melvin Capital drama) and the more recent Archegos blowup (that created a $5 billion loss for Credit Suisse) likely reinforce that belief. In practice, I think the key will be monitoring the build-up in margin debt.


Many valuation measures remain elevated relative to past levels. But as I’ve said before, valuations are not a timing indicator. Historically, real world attempts to manage money based on long-term valuation measures have performed poorly—even over several market cycles. In my view, more important than valuation level is the pace of multiple expansion. To distill that idea further, one can look at market performance. Comparing the index to its 10-year moving average, the S&P 500 is not yet at performance levels consistent with 1929, 1987, 1999/2000, or 1989 Japan—but it’s getting closer. For now, comparisons to those market tops are still premature.


On a cautionary note, some medium-term anecdotal contrarian warning signs have cropped up lately. I’ve noticed that some long-time bears have switched to being bullish (with contorted rationalizations)—a contrarian warning sign. And I suspect we’ll see more bears capitulate before the top. Similarly, some long-time bulls are now talking in terms that sound a lot like “new paradigm” and “this time is different”—also a contrarian warning sign.

==============================

bearish as it can be, but market seems has other idea currently. unsure.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 23 2021, 09:55 AM


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Posts: 13,556

https://www.afr.com/companies/telecommunica...20210423-p57lqi


Spectrum refers to the radio waves that wireless signals travel over. It allows mobile calls and internet usage, and the more slots one player holds, the more data it can send through the waves.

As the 26Ghz spectrum is high-energy, they cannot travel over long distances, so they are ideal for high-density areas like cities rather than regional centres.

RELATED QUOTES
TLSTelstra Corporation
$3.400

0.29%

1 year
1 day
Apr 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
2.400
3.000
3.600
Updated: Apr 23, 2021 – 9.51am. Data is 20 mins delayed.
View TLS related articles
Telstra chief executive Andy Penn said the investment would help broaden the company’s 5G capabilities.

“We’re delighted with the outcome of the auction and while the licenses won’t come into effect until around the middle of the year, the ACMA is making available early access licensing which will allow us to use the spectrum even soon,” he said.
===============

5G.... seems TLS will play a leading roll. tongue.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Apr 23 2021, 08:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

It’s real: Higher taxes are coming

“Sources” have relayed to the media that US President Joe Biden will propose raising marginal income taxes to 39.6% from 37%. In addition, these sources also say that he will also propose nearly doubling taxes on capital gains to 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million. “Sources”….do you believe them? Stock markets do (at least today). Stocks initially sold off on the first headline that capital gains could be as high as 43.4% for the wealthy, then had a second wave of selling come in, as more headlines came across. Additionally, algos jumped on the quick move lower. The result: the S&P 500 is 50 handles off the highs.

How does the stock market work?

But how much further can indices go? Although 50 handles may sound like a lot, yesterday’s low was 4126.35 in SPX. Today's low so far is 4123.69, only taking out yesterday’s lows by a few handles. Tuesday’s low was 4118.38, and the large index couldn’t take that out today! Below Tuesday’s low, support crosses at the upward sloping trendline of an ascending wedge, near 4100. If price breaks below, there is a gap fill from April 1st at 4020.63.

Recall that for the last 13 months SPX has been trading higher off the pandemic lows at 2191.85. Since then, price is up nearly 100%. Therefore, traders should not be surprised if the market pulls back 10%, which would put the large cap index only down near 3,730. With such a quick move in just over a year, traders may even expect a correct such as this. On a weekly timeframe, this would confluence near the long-term upward sloping trendline (green) from January 2018 and the 50% retracement level from the October 2020 lows to last week’s highs!

The question is one of timing. Is a near 40% tax on capital gains enough to makes traders/investors bail on current positions? Perhaps it won’t be until the Fed indicates that they are ready to begin tapering? Maybe it will be a “crypto collapse”? “Sell in May and go away”? The catalyst for a larger pullback is unknown. One thing that seems certain right now though, is that higher taxes are ahead.

============================

sound another warning.................... we so many times by now, blush.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 22 2021, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/if...ast/ar-BB1fUFYa

Professor Michael Poole, an epidemiologist from the Burnet Institut, said severe headaches, or breathing problems with abdominal pains, are key symptoms of a blood clot.

'Any difficulty in breathing with any abdominal pain, or a severe headache that isn't relieved by Panadol,' he told Daily Mail Australia.


Post-vaccination blood clots - warning signs
If you have these symptoms, urgently seek help:

If you have these symptoms, call 000

Allergic reactions

These occur quickly - usually within 15 minutes of a jab

===================

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 22 2021, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

BHP had solid ore sales from its mines in Western Australia in the three months to March 31 as wet weather and maintenance impacted output and exports.

BHP said it shipped 66 million tonnes of iron ore from its mines in WA’s Pilbara, slightly below market expectations.

Production fell 4% to 59.9 million tonnes for the quarter, leaving output up 4% for the first three quarters of the year at 188 million tonnes

Sales for the first nine months of 2020-21 totalled 210.1 million tonnes, up from 206.2 million tonnes in the same period of 2019-20.

But that has left BHP on track to achieve the top end of its full-year iron ore target range of 276-286 million tonnes, the company said in the update

“We are reliably executing our major projects, bringing on new supply in copper, petroleum and iron ore,” BHP CEO Mike Henry said.

“With our focus on keeping our people safe, costs down and productivity up, we are well positioned to finish the year strongly and continue delivering the essential products the world needs.”

Iron ore prices continued their surge on Tuesday and are now near all-time highs at $US189 a tonne for 62% Fe fines after Brazilian mining giant Vale this week said it had produced less ore than expected compared to the December quarter – 68 million tonnes vs 84.5 million tonnes.

But Vale’s shipments were 14% higher than the first quarter a year ago at more than 65 million tonnes.

Australia’s second-biggest miner, Rio Tinto, also said its iron ore output fell 2% in the quarter due to wet weather and labour shortages the company was facing in WA’s Pilbara.

Following the quarter’s performance, production guidance for 2020-21 remains unchanged for petroleum and iron ore. However, guidance for the company’s copper production has been increased to between 1.535 million tonnes to 1.660 million tonnes, reflecting the strong performance from the Escondida in Chile.

For metallurgical coal front, BHP has reduced its guidance to between 39 million tonnes and 41 million tonnes due to poor weather conditions. The lower expected coal volumes have also increased expected unit costs for Queensland Coal to $US74 and $US78 a tonne.

At the end of March, BHP had four major projects under development across petroleum, iron ore, and potash. These projects combined carry a combined budget of US$8.5 billion over the project’s life. All of the projects remain on track.

The $US3.06 billion South Flank iron ore project in the Pilbara is on track to begin production by the middle of the year while the company says it will make the final investment decision on the first stage of the Jansen potash project in Canada mid-year.

BHP shares fell 0.5% to $47.21.

======================
  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Apr 22 2021, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Commodities: Metals higher on a weaker dollar
Metals were mostly higher on the back of a weaker dollar, with silver rising +2.6% to a five-week high, and silver closing just above its 200-day eMA yet closing below 1800 after a +0.94% gain. Copper closed to its highest level since late February and palladium closed to a new record high.

Oil prices were lower again as a rise in covid cases continues to weigh on expected demand, with brent futures down -2.3% and WTI falling -1.75%.

================

think of silver is good bet for some times by now!! ohmy.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

Poll: The Banks
early birds
Posted on: Apr 22 2021, 10:45 AM


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Posts: 13,556

Aussie Bank Results Loom Large on the Horizon

The interim earnings releases for Westpac, NAB and ANZ are now around two weeks away and analysts have started rubbing their crystal balls, with Westpac popping up in some as one to watch.

Westpac is first cab off the rank with its results out May 3, ANZ releases on May 5, NAB, May 6 and Macquarie releases its full year figures on May 7.

Not because its first to release but some analysts think Westpac will reveal cost cuts or rather a plan to chop costs over the next year or so.

Speculation about the Westpac result and possible cuts emerged as bank shares came under pressure yesterday (as did much of the wider market).

Fears about an upturn in Covid cases in Asia and parts of Europe (and a surprise case in New Zealand) worried investors.

But the bank shares got caught up in that weaker sentiment.

Westpac shares fell 1%, NAB shares were down 0.3% and ANZ lost 0.8%, while Commonwealth Bank shares bucked the trend to finish 0.5% higher.

Analysts say that after Westpac’s profits were hit last year by costs from a money-laundering scandal the bank is on track to boost its reputation by starting a cost-cutting campaign.

CEO Peter King flagged a “re-set” of the bank’s cost base at its most full year results in November and analysts reckon these will appear next month

Citi’s Brendan Sproules said in a note he believed the bank should slash its cost base of $10.2 billion to $8.8 billion in the next three years.

Hee argues Westpac could slash its branch network by 45% – closing 440 branches – and that risk and compliance spending will fall by $540 million over the next few years.

“The underperformance of the last 18 months has left WBC needing to provide hard commitments and quantifiable targets to close the gap to major bank peers,” Sproules claimed in his note to clients, ignoring the uproar that sacking staff and closing so many branches will cause.

His claim that Westpac will spend more on compliance costs goes against the intense oversight key regulator, APRA is maintaining over the bank (and over Macquarie for that matter)

Morgan Stanley’s Richard Wiles claims bank’s plan on costs will be a key influence on the bank’s share price in coming months.

He favours a scenario in which the bank gets its target cost base to $8.5 billion, excluding non-core businesses that are likely to be sold.

Wiles estimates such cost cutting would lift earnings forecasts for the bank by 5%

“Westpac will announce details of its ‘Cost Re-set’ plan at its first half 2020-21 result on Monday, May 3,” Mr Wiles said.

“This is an important catalyst because Westpac’s cost performance has been disappointing in recent years and we believe a credible medium-term cost reduction strategy is an important driver of the recovery in earnings, return on equity and dividends.”

Big calls, so let’s see what happens on May 3 and if Westpac can withstand the pressure if big cuts are revealed.

Earlier this month Fitch ratings upped its ratings on the big banks.

It lifted their outlook from negative to stable.

“Fitch Ratings’ revision of the Outlook to Stable from Negative on the ‘A+’ Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Australia’s four largest banking groups reflects a meaningful and sustainable improvement in the economic prospects in the banks’ core markets since the onset of Covid-19.

“This also points to less downside risk to the operating environment,” Fitch said.

“We expect Australian GDP to recover to end-2019 levels by mid-2021, and by 4.7% in 2021 following a 2.4% contraction in 2020.

“This outcome is much stronger than the 5% decline we had expected in April 2020, and we now believe that the operating environment will remain consistent with the current score even under a scenario that is weaker than our base case.

“The better-than-expected economic performance in 2020 and improved outlook for 2021 mean risks to asset quality have also eased, and we now expect performance to remain consistent with the current factor score of ‘A+’. We have revised the asset-quality outlook to stable from negative as a result,” Fitch said.

By the way, the CBA releases its third quarter trading update on May 12.

=============

from our own sharecafe. i guess a lot of you guys holds one or more big 4 banks stocks for yielding. tongue.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 22 2021, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

ASX 200 was on track for its worst close in two month’s yesterday, dragged down by technology and energy stocks. Yet it managed to recoup losses in the second half of the session to close just -0.3% down for the day, leaving a bullish hammer in its wake. Given the positive lead from Wall Street overnight and recovery on the ASX 200, we could be in for less severe start to today’s session.

Whilst the bullish hammer is larger than we’d like, there are key levels nearby which may help splice it up into a more manageable size. Note the lower wick (buying tail) pushed prices back above the 20-day eMA, prior record high and 6957 swing low, which provides a potential support zone between 6938 – 6957. It also suggests strong buying demand above 6900.

A break above 7018 confirms yesterday’s bullish hammer.
Our bias remains bullish above the 6938 – 6957 support zone.
The initial target is 7100, followed by the previous record high (just below 7200).

====================
lot of TA stuff. bullish price action as yesterday, it could carry asx200 to all time high soon enough imho.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2021, 03:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

10 minutes to 4 pm as i typing, asx200 rallied from day low to 6980ish atm, the daily candle looked bullish, also it will finished the day above that 6950 bullish support level.
looks promise for the bulls for cash market at least to say!!

thanks cooderman for the chart!! tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2021, 10:14 AM


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Posts: 13,556

Forex: USD catches a safe-haven bid (and a little help from the Fed)
The US dollar regained its safe-haven status, although a letter from Jerome Powell sent to a US Senator revealed that the Fed are committed to controlling any inflationary overshoot. So, if inflation rises too fast and too far, perhaps they will act after all.

The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.2% although remains below 91.30/40 resistance. A break above here confirms a deeper retracement but, if it holds as resistance, then bears could look to drive it towards 90.63/79 support.

------

After a false break out of a symmetrical triangle, AUD/JPY prices have reversed sharply lower overnight and printed a large bearish hammer. If we take a step back, we also note that this is the third large bearish reversal candle since late February which highlights the potential for a larger topping pattern to form (even if it Is not exactly a textbook pattern or pleasing to the eye).

Interestingly, prices have found support at 83.33 where the trendline support and the Marabuzo line reside. The Marabuzo line is the 50% retracement between the open to close of the bullish Marabuzo candle on the 26th March.

================

DYOR

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 21 2021, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

ASX 200 Market Internals

The ASX 200 began it corrective phase after breaking beneath Monday’s bearish pinbar and snapping a 5-day winning streak. The daily trend remains bullish above 6954, which leaves just under 20 points of downside util this level is tested. Given the weak lead from Wall Street overnight, it may well test (or even breach that level) today. Take note that BHP Group (BHP) release corporate sales at 08:30.

SPX had long overdue retrace last session , looks going to test that 4105ish support soon.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2021, 10:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Despite a weaker US dollar, gold (-0.36%) failed to hold onto earlier gains and found resistance at its 200-day eMA. Given the significance of this technical level and the two-bar reversal at it, we suspect a retracement is now due before it tries to break above 1800.

Silver (-0.56%) also struggled to retain last week’s bullish momentum but has found support above its 50-day eMA. Given the 50 and 20-day eMA reside at 25.66 and 25.47 then we suspect this band of support could hold prices up for now.

Oil prices remains in a tight range near last week’s highs, after breaking above key resistance levels last Wednesday. WTI rose 0.4% and traders at 63.38 whilst brent was 0.5% higher ad settled at 67.11.

===========
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2021, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Lower yields and the Fed’s reiteration that they expect inflation to be transitory has continued to weigh on the greenback this week, allowing the dollar to continue reversing gains posted in March. Since its peak on 31st of March, DXY has since fallen -2.6%.

The US dollar index (DXY) fell -0.54% and broke convincingly beneath our initial target of the 91.30/40 lows, amid its most bearish session in nearly two weeks.


After initially dipping lower, AUD/USD recovered and closed with a bullish outside day. Its low was just above 77c, so our bias remains bullish above this key support level and for a retest of the 0.7800/50 highs.

==========
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2021, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The ASX 200 was effectively flat yesterday after early gains were later reversed. Oil prices weighed on energy stocks yesterday whilst travel stocks rallied as the travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia has opened up.

The day closed with a bearish pinbar on the daily chart, which shows buyer exhaustion just below our 7100 target. Whilst this warns of a potential retracement over the near-term the trend remains bullish above the 6957.40 low.

===================

DYOR
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 20 2021, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

seems asx200 went back to old dog days??? ---when US market up aussie go side way when US market down then aussie will down a lot more?? weirdsmiley.gif

it's kinda strange to me that aussie market not out perform other major market during last three months!! unsure.gif
i consider aussie market as conservative market. do i got it wrong??

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 19 2021, 11:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

so you think that novavax would be safer than AZ AND J&J??
feeds us with more info please plastic. thanks

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 19 2021, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

you just put little rocket under this gem nipper!! lmaosmiley.gif

good stock , if one wants involve in mining sector. imho

feed us more if you have more info nipper. tongue.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Apr 19 2021, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

asx200 looks to march on -----over come 7100 today??

SPX , go side way ...kind of thing!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 19 2021, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

A busy week for data, US quarterly reports and possibly more records for stockmarkets as the flood of stimulus spending keeps the markets buoyant.

Interest rate decisions are from central banks in the eurozone, Canada, Indonesia and Russia, while the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes from its April meeting tomorrow.

This week also sees the release of flash PMI surveys covering more than half of the world’s economic output which will provide a timely update on the strength of the current recovery, and also highlight Covid-driven problems in pats of Europe, Japan, Brazil and especially India.

Other major releases include industrial production, trade and inflation numbers for Japan, UK labour market, retail sales, state borrowing and inflation statistics, plus Eurozone bank lending and confidence surveys.

The US sees jobless claims and homes sales updates in what is a quiet week, although the March quarter earnings season steps up.

In Australia the minutes from the RBA’s last meeting (tomorrow) will remain dovish and there’s the preliminary March retail sales (on Wednesday) to show a 1% bounce after the ending of short lockdowns in Victoria and WA.

Plus there’s updated payroll data on jobs.

The AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver says the Australian ‘flash’ business conditions surveys for April on Friday will be strong.

Also in Australia this week we’ll see the start of quarterly reports from some of the country’s biggest miners (and the world’s) and energy groups.

Rio Tinto releases its first quarter figures tomorrow, with BHP following the next day with its third quarter figures (both for the three months to March).

Both reports will be examined closely for the performance of their huge WA iron ore operations with shipments to China falling 12.4 million tonnes in January and February, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics merchandise trade data for both months.

Woodside releases its first quarter figures on Thursday – Santos usually releases its first quarter figures around the same time or a day later.

OZ Minerals also releases its first quarter figures on Thursday.

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API) is due to release its half year earnings later this week.

In the US, there’s the business activity surveys on Friday and Dr Oliver sees (like Australia), those showing remaining “very strong around their March reading of 59.7”.

March existing home sales on Thursday and new home sales on Friday should bounce back after storm related falls in February.

The US March quarter earnings reporting season is already off to a good start with bank results and will ramp up in the week ahead (See separate story).

In Europe, Thursday sees the European Central Bank Thursday) meet and leave monetary policy on hold .

The April business activity surveys on Friday will to be watched closely after their surprise rise to a solid 53.2 in March despite coronavirus related setbacks.

Japanese trade and industrial production data for March are out today, while Dr Oliver says core inflation for March on Friday is likely to remain soft.

Japanese business activity surveys for April will also be released on Friday.

==================

from our own sharecafe...........

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 16 2021, 09:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Experts meeting as CMO confirms blood clotting patient took AstraZeneca vaccine
Tom Burton

Experts are meeting to consider the death of a NSW woman from blood clots, with the Chief Medical Officer confirming she had been given the AstraZeneca vaccine.

“People should be cautious because it’s about jumping to conclusions,” Professor Paul Kelly said.

“We do have a very well thought through and very long-standing approach to such matters.

“The TGA has convened a special expert group to examine the information we have so far that has been gathered from the clinical team that looked after this woman and from NSW Health.

“They will be meeting today at 4pm this afternoon and there will be more information after that meeting.

“In terms of where they have come to with that conclusion, it is possible they will not make a conclusion today because of the complexity of the case.

“I am familiar with some of those details, but I am sure people would realise for privacy reasons it is not appropriate for me to go into those at this time, but that information will be available to the expert group which will get that information put together.

“It is true she had the AstraZeneca vaccine a few days before she became ill. Whether those two events are related is a matter for those experts that will be meeting today.”

================================


“I am familiar with some of those details, but I am sure people would realise for privacy reasons it is not appropriate for me to go into those at this time, but that information will be available to the expert group which will get that information put together.

“It is true she had the AstraZeneca vaccine a few days before she became ill. Whether those two events are related is a matter for those experts that will be meeting today.”

-----------------
yep, everything is ok!! but what about "" transparency""??? just stop F£$%^king BS to us!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 16 2021, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/fukushima-j...-prof-says.html

Over in China, the foreign ministry criticized Japan in a statement for “unilaterally” deciding to release the water, while ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian challenged Japanese officials to drink water from the Fukushima plant.


========================

sound little bit rough to ask officials to take a sip before it can tip these "unharmful" water to the sea. but is it affective way??? lmaosmiley.gif

USA support Japs to tip the water into the sea, because it is far away from USA. and USA needs Japs atm. if it close to them they might drops 10 nuke bomb [ 5 times more than they did to Japs at end of world war2]... devilsmiley.gif
WTF.
I think aussie should start nuke power, just tip the waist water into sea .....easy as...... lmaosmiley.gif
then the power bill would be a lot cheaper than now.....

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 16 2021, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ns...ine/ar-BB1fFU7M

Australian population unlikely to be vaccinated until end of next year
‘Single-use plastics’ to be phased out in Australia from 2025 include plastic…

Australia's medicines regulator is calling on NSW Health to provide more information about the death of a woman who developed blood clots after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.

The Therapeutic Goods Administration has joined NSW Health in investigating the 48-year-old diabetic woman's death, to determine whether it has any connection to the vaccine.
......

And we've been very transparent, very transparent when it comes to information on these issues." Scotmo!!

=================

lmaosmiley.gif , cool.gif

to me,

the poor woman survived pandemic but died with AZ vaccine shot----------simple facts right??? is that so hard to understand!!?? WTF!!
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 16 2021, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

thought SPX gonna retrace last night, but it just keeps powering up even daily RSI in the over bought zone.
my day trading got stopped out.

long asx200 seems gonna pay off , target 7100 today as cooderman chart showed.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 16 2021, 08:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The Federal Reserve has been telling us time and time again that they are going to keep monetary policy accommodative until ACTUAL inflation is within the 2%-3% range. They told us inflationary expectations are transitory and that the rising in yields was unsustainable. Yet even with strong US data today (Retail Sales, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Initial Jobless Claims), yields fell, and gold soared. Either someone has decided that it is time to believe the Fed or that now is the perfect time for a short squeeze in bonds! Note that the DXY barely moved all day, which is an indication that it may be the latter. (Stocks are higher too, but stocks always move higher!)


===============

don't fight the Fed??!! yeah they always say this when time is right!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 16 2021, 08:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

What is a short squeeze?

Since the beginning of April and the beginning of the second quarter, bonds have become a “buy” for the markets. Yields move inversely to bonds. Therefore, as bonds rose in price, yields fell. 10-year yields put in new recent highs on March 30th near the 50% retracement level from the November 2018 highs to the March 2020 lows, at 1.774 and have been moving lowed since. Note that at the highs, the RSI was diverging with price while in overbought territory.

One can also argue that the move in yields was purely technical driven. On a 240-minute timeframe, as 10-year yields were moving higher into late March they formed the left shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. Today, with the move lower, yields broke the below the neckline of the pattern. The target for a head-and-shoulders pattern is the height from the head to the neckline, added to the breakdown point of the right shoulder, which in this case is near 1.437. However, the RSI has moved into oversold territory, which indicates a near-term bounce is possible. Horizontal support is just above the target at the March 11th lows near 1.475 and then way below the target at 1.20 (see daily). Resistance is now back at the neckline at 1.618 (not the Fib level!) and then the top of the right shoulder at 1.701.

===============================

finally the wide spread between Fed fund rate and 10 years got someone's attention!!!!! wink.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 15 2021, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Commodities: Oil prices rally on higher demand forecasts
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said fundamentals for oil “look decidedly stronger”, that vaccine rollouts have improved the outlook for oil demand and oil inventories built up during last year are depleting. Furthermore, crude inventories fell nearly 6 million barrels last week which shows there is some hard data coming through to support the outlook.

Oil prices finally broke out of range with WTI future (+4.3%) closing above 62.27 resistance and brent futures (+4.1%) closing above 65.50 resistance. In a weaker dollar environment with supporting fundamentals, it appears increasingly likely that prices have reverted to their bullish trends.

Gold and silver failed to take advantage of the weaker dollar. XAG/USD needs to break above 25.50 before we can assume bullish continuation on the daily chart, whilst gold remains stuck below several key levels of resistance between 1750 – 1765.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 15 2021, 09:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

AUD and NZD were hands down the strongest currencies, with both majors rising over 1%, whilst CHF and USD were the weakest. The New Zealand dollar dominated the leader board, taking top spot against JPY, CAD, USD, CHF, EUR and GBP. The US dollar index (DXY) fell to a one-month low and our initial target around the 91.30 lows remains intact. EUR/USD is just 20 pips below the 1.2000 barrier after closing to a one-month high.

The Australian dollar was mostly higher against its peers (barring NZD) and is in a firm position ahead of today’s employment data.

AUD/USD broke above 0.7677 resistance and the neckline to invalidate the head and shoulders top pattern although, as previously mentioned, it had already spent too long near the neckline to be construed as a breakout from a reversal pattern.


AUD/JPY rose to a six-day high during risk-on trade. It remains in a strong uptrend overall and has been supported by the 50-day eMA, and yesterday closed above its 20-day eMA and at the top trendline resistance of a potential triangle. The pattern projects a target just below 87.00.

Interestingly, its recent pullback respected the 50% Marabuzo line (50% of open to close on 26th March) by failing to close beneath it on several occasions. We suspect momentum has now realigned with its longer-term bullish trend.

A break above yesterday’s high confirms the breakout of the triangle.
The bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low. If a strong breakout is to be assumed then traders could use the 50% retracement of yesterday’s ranger to aid with risk management.
The initial target is the March high, follows by the triangle target just below 87.00.

==============

TA stuff. DYOR

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 15 2021, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The first hint of a jump in US inflation and what did all those brave souls among the bond bunnies do? Why they jumped sideways and sent US bond yields lower!

So much for the bond market being the all-powerful monster that would tame central banks post-Covid, as some alarmist writers of economic nonsense had been insisting as they fretted over quantitative easing, higher inflation and anything else they could lay their hands on.

The US Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in March, the largest gain since August 2012, after rising 0.4% in February. A 9.1% surge in fuel prices accounted for nearly half of the increase in the CPI. Petrol prices rose 6.4% in February. Food prices rose 0.1% as the price of potatoes unexpectedly rose and food consumed outside the home also rose 0.1%.

For the year March, the CPI surged 2.6%. That was the largest gain since August 2018 and followed a 1.7% increase in February.

And there’s the outbreak of inflation – shock horror, just as the talking heads had warned – but it passed without too much pain and bond yields eased afterwards.

Core inflation (excluding food and energy), rose 0.3% after up from 0.1% in February. That was the largest gain in seven months in the core CPI as the annual rate rose 1.6% after the 1.3% rise in February.

The Fed tracks the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for its 2% inflation target, (now a flexible average rather than hard target, a little like the flexible 2% to 3% over time target for the Reserve Bank.

The core PCE price index rose an annual 1.5% in February and judging by the core CPI, probably nudged a bit higher in March (we will find out in a fortnight).

The yield on the key 10-year Treasury bond ended down 5.6 basis points to yield 1.6198%, well below a 14-month high of 1.776% hit on March 30.

The Fed – especially chair Jay Powell, have been warning for a while that inflation will make a “transitory” jump mid year as the comparative base rolls over and the big falls a year ago drop out of calculations. The same is going to happen here as well, according to RBA governor, Phil Lowe.

Central banks want to see inflation rising because it shows the rebound from the Covid lockdowns is actually strengthening and the higher demand is increasing prices for goods and services.

Deflation or disinflation means weak demand, a lot of spare capacity in the economy and problems ahead for economies showing them.

The US isn’t one and nor is Australia or New Zealand (which left monetary policy on hold yesterday

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/04/14/bon...n-edges-higher/

================
from our own sharecafe

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 15 2021, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Thus far, April’s typically strong seasonality has not disappointed. Before this year, the SPX had been up 16 of the last 20 Aprils with an average move of +2.5%. Eight days into April, 2021, the SPX already is +4.25%.



2

More importantly, over the last two decades, Tech has witnessed a major inflection point vs. the overall market in April. As of yesterday’s close, the NASDAQ Composite is +5.66% in April, and the NDX +6.84%.



3
So far, the Tech rally has helped pull the NDX/SPX 14-Day RSI indicator from the VERY depressed 20 level back to 59, but the indicator remains in a one-year downtrend. That will need to change for this move to have staying power.



4
Both the US Dollar and Swiss Franc are at critical spots, near former breakout points and their respective 50 Day MAs.

=================================
kinda think SPX gonna retest that 4105, before it can go any higher. imho. onlu guess work judge by it's last night's movement!

asx200 , might see buyer step in this morning to push it over 7000 again, bit od consolidation at 7000 round number atm. i'm bullish with asx200!! [ little biased]

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 14 2021, 09:35 AM


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Posts: 13,556

Commodities: Gold bugs defend 1720
Gold printed a bullish engulfing day after bulls successfully defended 1720 support. Still, we’d want to see prices break above 1765 before confirming the bullish breakout on the daily chart, but the weaker US dollar suggests this could now be on the cards. On the four-hour chart a small bullish pennant is forming for a possible breakout towards 1755 and 1760 resistance.

Oil prices closed to a seven-day high, yet volatility or general direction is sorely lacking as both WTI and brent essentially move sideways inside a range.

======================

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 14 2021, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Forex: DXY breaks below 92.0
The US dollar index (DXY) finally broke out of range to close firmly beneath 92.00 support. The break of its bullish trendline remains intact and next key support levels reside around 91.30/40. Still, the 50-day eMA is now acting as support whilst the 20-day caps as resistance, but momentum currently favours a bearish continuation whilst prices remains below 93.33.

============
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 14 2021, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Vaccination Rollouts Hit a Roadblock
The US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) sent out a recommendation to halt the use of J&J (Johnson and Johnson) vaccines due to six recipients of it, all women aged between 18 and 48, experienced a rare form of blood clot. The headline almost mirrors that of the AstraZeneca setback, and does bring into question if the US can maintain top spot on the vaccine rollout. That said, the FDA acknowledge the halt is only likely to last “a matter of days” although that hinges upon “what we learn over the next few days”.

Over the past few months there have been several occasions where the distribution of vaccinations has been halted, only to resume. The US is also using the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, and it’s also not impossible for J&J’s vaccines to return to the needles as quickly as they were withdrawn. So perhaps this is why markets are taking in it their stride. But, it could spell bad news for Europe which is already behind on its vaccination programme.

US CPI came in slightly above expectations. Yet as the Fed have made it crystal clear on numerous occasions that they won’t tighten policy on higher inflation, it was a downside surprise that was always more likely to provoke a market reaction.

The ASX 200 remains in a potential full-flag formation, which would be confirmed with a break above 7013 and bring 7100 into focus (ahead of its 7198 record high). If it retraces further, we’d still be keen to explore bullish opportunities above the 7900 – 7938 zone.

=====================
DYOR AS ALWAYS!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 14 2021, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

There are a number of readings telling us that the SPX is short-term stretched. We’ll review NINE of these below.



2

One is that the SPX’s 14-Day RSI now is overbought for the first time since early September.



3
Another is that a new Demark SELL Signal hit a few days ago. We’ve seen a handful of these come and go over the last few months. While most only led to short-term pauses, the SPX did eventually undercut the price level where each signal first hit. See chart below.

Despite these factors, the SPX’s two recently triggered bullish formations remain in play, with targets of 4,210 and 4,265. Holding above their respective breakout points trumps everything else.



5

As we’ve seen over the last eight weeks, breakout points actually have NOT held up well. Thus, despite the strong moves of late, we should be prepared for any scenario.
Both the XLE and Crude Oil are at important technical junctures – close to their 50 Day MAs and trying to avoid triggering bearish formations.

Copper is getting another shot at bouncing near its 50 Day MA, which has worked well over the last few months.

===================
Despite a risk-off start in futures markets, the Nasdaq 100 and DJI hit fresh highs despite the use of Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine being halted in the US.

==============

SPX did really well last night, after scared by J&J news on future market. but there is one thing----volume is thinner !! be cautious

ASX200 future followed SPX , looks gonna have another crack on 7000 today.


  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 13 2021, 09:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

future is diving as i posting

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/us-regulato...ing-issues.html

U.S. regulators reportedly call for pause in use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine due to clotting issues

==========================

well, big set back .......... weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 13 2021, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Index Methodology Explained

Why you should care about index methodology
The meteoric rise of the ETF industry has had the effect of transforming indices from hypothetical measures of performance into ‘investable assets’.

As indexing strategies continue to gain significant inflows from all types of investors, the scrutiny of construction and maintenance methodologies underlying indices (and the ETFs that aim to track those indices) has intensified considerably.

Here’s why it is important to care about index methodology.



Summary
Index weighting methodologies can have a significant impact on an ETF’s returns
Indices can be market cap weighted, equal weighted, fundamentally weighted, earnings-weighted, dividend-weighted indices and more
When considering allocating to an equity ETF, investors should focus not just on the asset class or universe of equities the ETF provides exposure to, but also on the methodology for the index that the fund seeks to track and whether that is consistent with their desired exposure


What is an index methodology?
Broadly speaking, an index methodology is a set of rules or criteria that govern an index’s creation, calculation, and maintenance. The rules determine the assets that are eligible for inclusion in the index, the formulas by which the index value is calculated, the process for modifying the components, and a timetable for updates.

The indices underlying many of the most popular equity ETFs are market capitalisation-weighted benchmarks, meaning that the companies with the largest equity values receive the largest portfolio weightings. But while the ETF industry has helped to reinforce the popularity of these indices – such as the S&P 500, S&P/ASX 200 and MSCI World – it has also given increased visibility to alternative weighting methodologies.

A number of issuers offer equity ETFs that seek to track indices that are not based on market capitalisation, including:

equal-weighted indices
earnings-weighted and dividend-weighted indices
indices where security weightings are based on top-line revenue, and
fundamental weighting methodology.
When allocating assets to equity ETFs, many advisers and investors focus primarily on the type of exposure desired, for example large cap domestics, small cap internationals etc.

However, the rules used to both select index components and allocate individual security weightings can also have a significant impact on the total return generated by an equity ETF.



Equal weighting methodology
The below table shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index compared to the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index for various time periods to 31 January 2021.

S&P 500 historical returns 31 January 2021
Source: Morningstar. Index performance does not take into account any ETF fees and costs. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future performance of any index or ETF.

The holdings in the two indices are identical, but the S&P 500 employs a market cap-weighted approach whereas the S&P 500 Equal Weight gives an equal weighting to each security. That seemingly minor tweak resulted in a more than 186 basis point p.a. difference over the 20 years to 31 January 2021. With compounding, this equates to a cumulative total return of 310% (equal weight) compared to 189% (market cap-weighted) over the 20-year period.

Each methodology has both advantages and potential drawbacks, which have been evident in different market conditions (remembering that past performance isn’t indicative of future performance).

Market-cap weighting has typically outperformed an equal weight approach in periods of sustained price trends favouring the largest-cap stocks – such as during the last 5 to 10 years when mega-cap U.S. tech stocks have performed strongly. However, the equal-weight approach has tended to more than make up this lost ground when these price trends reversed – and the relative performance of large ‘hot’ stocks has reversed.

In any case, the figures above demonstrate that the weighting methodology selected can have a material impact on bottom line return.

The BetaShares S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (QUS) aims to track the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (before fees and expenses). Like the S&P 500 Index, it holds a portfolio of 500 leading listed U.S. companies, but gives an equal weighting to each (i.e. each stock makes up 0.20% of the fund’s assets upon each quarterly rebalancing).

That means there will be a reduced risk of QUS being heavily exposed to a small number of mega-cap stocks – for example, the top 10 holdings of the S&P 500 currently make up about 28% of assets, compared to just 2% for QUS (as at 31st January 2021).



Fundamental weighting methodology
Turning to an example in the Australian market, the below table shows the performance of the Solactive Australia 200 Index compared to the FTSE RAFI Australia 200 Index for various time periods to 31 January 2021.

FTSE RAFI aus 200 historical returns 31 January 2021
Source: Morningstar. Index performance does not take into account any ETF fees and costs. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future performance of any index or ETF.

The Solactive Australia 200 Index comprises the 200 largest companies by market capitalisation listed on the ASX. The FTSE RAFI Australia 200 Index is designed to track the performance of the 200 largest Australian companies as measured by fundamental size.

Whereas the Solactive Index relies on a market cap-weighted approach, the RAFI methodology uses a ‘fundamental score’ to compute stock. Stocks are selected and weighted based on four fundamental measures of size:

book value
cash flow
sales, and
dividends.
Again, as can be seen from the historical returns shown above, the weighting methodology has had a material impact on bottom line return.

The BetaShares Australia 200 ETF (A200) aims to track the performance of the Solactive Australia 200 Index (before fees and expenses). It holds the 200 largest companies listed on the ASX by market capitalisation.

The BetaShares FTSE RAFI Australia 200 ETF (QOZ) aims to track the performance of the FTSE RAFI Australia 200 Index (before fees and expenses). The portfolio is weighted in a way that aims to reflect economic importance rather than the market capitalisation of its constituents.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/04/12/ind...logy-explained/
===================

from our own sharecafe
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 13 2021, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

There are three things that cannot be easily hidden: The Sun, the Moon, and the Truth.

The following are 2 Simple Truths, 5 Rules of Life, and 3 Bonus Rules:



SIMPLE TRUTH 1:

Lovers help each other undress before sex.

However, after sex, they always dress on their own.

Moral of the story -- In life, no one helps you once you're screwed.



SIMPLE TRUTH 2:

When a woman is pregnant, all her friends touch her stomach and say, "Congratulations. " But none go up to the man, touch his penis and say "Good Job."

Moral of the story -- Hard work is rarely appreciated.



FIVE RULES TO REMEMBER IN LIFE:

1.. Money can't buy happiness - but it's far more comfortable to cry in a Porsche than on a bicycle.

2.. Forgive your enemy - but remember the asshole's name.

3.. If you help someone when they're in trouble - they will remember you when they're in trouble again.

4.. Alcohol does not solve any problems - but then, neither does milk.

5.. Many people are alive only because it's illegal to shoot them.



BONUS RULES:

1.. Condoms do not guarantee safe sex! A friend of mine was wearing one when he was shot by the woman's husband.

2.. I think all politicians should wear uniforms. You know, like NASCAR drivers, so we could identify their corporate sponsors.

3.. Also, all politicians should serve only two terms -- one in office and one in prison.

===================

not Friday, but it is something that can make people smile... tongue.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 13 2021, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Last week, the SPX logged its THIRD STRAIGHT WEEKLY GAIN of at LEAST 1% since the period ending 7/17/20.

This now is the twelfth such streak since 2009. Of the prior 11, the SPX was higher the next week six times (55%), with an average move of +0.5%. While that’s not an overly strong positive bias, five of those six gains were at least 1%, as well. Additional stats and charts are below.

As the Live Pattern Grid shows below, the SPX’s two recently triggered bullish formations remain in play, with targets of 4,210 and 4,265.

The SPX now is getting closer to the upper trendline of its 12-month trading channel. Touching and/or eclipsing that line has coincided with short-term trading tops.

With Banks set to kick off earnings season this week, the KBE and KRE ETFs are noticeably farther below their respective highs compared to others… but each ETF has continued to respect their uptrends since the October lows.

Asian indices continue to display relative weakness, and some are flashing topping patterns. Charts reviewed below include China, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia and India.
=====================

still cautious bullish om SPX . unsure.gif i guess it is overbought situation vs plenty of money printing by most central banks.....

asx200 , looks bullish and it will crack that 7000 and hit all time high soon . imho
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 12 2021, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.longtermtrends.net/sp500-price-...iller-pe-ratio/

The price earnings ratio is calculated by dividing a company's stock price by it's earnings per share. In other words, the price earnings ratio shows what the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its current earnings. It is one of the most widely-used valuation metrics for stocks. The PE ratio of the S&P 500 divides the index (current market price) by the reported earnings of the trailing twelve months. In 2009 when earnings fell close to zero the ratio got out of whack. A solution to this phenomenon is to divide the price by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. In recent years, Yale professor Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has reintroduced this adjusted ratio to a wider audience of investors. The Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is illustrated below.

====================

hope you guys can open up the link,

so interesting of these charts, worth a good study !! imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 12 2021, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

here is my argument tombeet

this is what RBA siad
--------------------------
Looser lending standards could lead to “overexuberance” in Australia’s property market and trigger debt to rise, the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned on Friday.
------------------------------------------

if RBA want higher housing price then stop BS to our face and blame commercial bank .
this is my point , you want something, that is ok but just straight to the facts, stop BS and think us as stupid!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 12 2021, 09:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-faces-uphi...od=hp_lead_pos6

Powerful magnets made of rare-earth minerals are essential components in electric-vehicle motors, wind turbines and other technology. China mines over 70% of the world’s rare earths and is responsible for 90% of the complex process of turning them into magnets, analysts say. That dominance gives Beijing sway over makers of various fast-growing technologies.

================

so bet on aussie rare earth mining is the the better way to profit from current situation !! what stock should we look at it nipper?? tongue.gif unsure.gif unsure.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 12 2021, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The SPX logged its sixth advance in the last seven days on Friday, notched another new all-time high, eclipsed 4,100 for the first time and finished the week at its highs, too. It was the third straight gain of less than 1%, but it was more than enough for the recent breakouts to live another day (targets 4,210 and 4,265, respectively).


2

It was again a small net move on light volume, but these are characteristics of established uptrends. We saw similar action last year during July- August and October-November, as well.



3
The big difference now is that the VIX has been below 20 for eight consecutive days. After yesterday’s sizable call volume in the VIX, it will be interesting to see if the index continues to decline. The VIX dropped again on Friday.



4

The SPX had the best breadth, though everything improved as the day progressed.



Small Caps underperformed all day, though. Within the IWM ETF, the biggest drag was Small Cap Biotech.



6
Biotech has been struggling within large caps, too. The XBI S&P Biotech ETF lost approximately 2% on Friday and closed right near its 200 Day MA, where it bounced from in late March. The first Demark BUY signal hit today since December, 2018 hit today, as well. That’s something to watch, but for any of that to matter, its intermittent rallies need to improve.


7

The IWF Large Cap Growth ETF logged its 7th straight gain for the first time since early August’20. Its last eight day winning streak happened from late May to early June of last year.



8
The XLK Technology ETF logged its third straight weekly advance of at least 2% this week. This hasn’t happened since the weeks ending 3/13-4/3/09 (4 in a row).



9
The NYSE TICK was again very shallow; it’s now stayed above the -1,000 mark for eight consecutive sessions, which we haven’t seen since August, 2020.



10
With Composite Volume down considerably this week, the five-day average dropped below 10 billion shares for the first time all year.



For some perspective:



In 2020 post-crash, the 5-day avg LOW was 8.5 billion in late October.



In 2019, the 5-day avg HIGH was just 8.9 billion in early August.
=======================

bullish on price action but cautious on some overbought indicators . unsure.gif

asx200 gonna over 7000 today?? i for one would think it will do it !! most likely!! tongue.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 9 2021, 09:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/prince-phil...-at-age-99.html


LONDON — Prince Philip, the Greece-born royal who as the husband of Queen Elizabeth II was the longest-serving consort to a British sovereign, died Friday. He was 99.

===================

RIP.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 9 2021, 07:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

lmaosmiley.gif

nipper , if RBA raises rate 2%, i reckon the current property market would be down over 30% within a month. i reckon!
want bet with me!!??? lmaosmiley.gif i'm a such gambler... i know it is impossible for RBA to do that.

but i disagree with you on this point, i think rate hike can fix the problem, don't need up much, little bit from current level will be enough !! imho

hi peoples come in to discuss with us, either against or for it [ rate rise], love to hear you guys voice on this thingy!! tongue.gif




  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 9 2021, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/rba-warni...-050059377.html

Looser lending standards could lead to “overexuberance” in Australia’s property market and trigger debt to rise, the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned on Friday.

=====================

lmaosmiley.gif ...... man!! c'mon RBA , just simply lift rate, stop talking with your backside hole. problem will be fixed for sure...... 100% sure!! lmaosmiley.gif

everyone just BS to your face these days!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 9 2021, 09:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Speaking at an International Monetary Fund event overnight, Jerome Powell said that price rises from spending combined with bottlenecks in the supply chain would not cause the kind of yearly increases that would be considered as inflation. Bond traders were quick to snap up treasuries and send yields lower, allowing technology stocks to resume their ascent and send the Nasdaq 100 up 3.2% to a seven-week high, just below its record. The Dow Jones closed above 33,500 for the first time and the S&P 500 enjoyed its second day in history above 4,000.

With futures mostly higher, we expect a positive open across Asia. The Hang Seng shows potential to break above 29,100 resistance which would also invalidate trendline resistance to suggest prices are trying to revert to its longer-term bullish trend, whilst a break below 28,500 warns of another leg lower.

The ASX 200 broke to a 13-month high after its fifth consecutive bullish session, yet 7,000 capped as resistance. From here we would look for the 6938-breakout level to hold as support before targeting the 7,100 handle and the 7,197 highs.

=========================================

market and economy awash with "free" cash atm.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 9 2021, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

AUD/USD closed with a bullish inside day after failing to break the lows of Wednesday’s bearish outside day. So, the inverted head and shoulders pattern remains in play but a clear break above 0.7680 / neckline invalidates it, whilst direct losses from here beneath 0.7600 keeps the pattern alive.

=======================

only good for short term trading imho!! DYOR as always

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 9 2021, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

It was a strong close for gold which now trades around 1755, very much keeping its double bottom pattern alive. Given its bullish pinbar last week and rise this week, we’ll be keeping a close eye on its potential to break above 1764 resistance here on.

Silver also notched up a bullish session although structurally it lacks the allure that gold shows on the daily chart. Still, it closed above trendline resistance on the daily chart but needs to clear its 50-day eMA at 25.68.

Oil prices remain very much range-bound at present. Despite lockdown pressures persisting, markets know OPEC will likely support prices and the weaker dollar is also providing a layer of support, yet by not enough to help it rise. Brent recouped the prior day’s losses and rose 0.35% to 63.38, just below its 20-day eMA yet just above its 50-day. WTI was -0.28% lower for the session but closed just above its 50-day eMA, around the centre of it 57.25 – 62.27 range.

====================

all TA stuff,
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 9 2021, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

If the SPX’s morning’s early strength continues throughout today’s session, it officially will trigger a bullish flag breakout, with an upside objective of 4,210.

A continued gripe about the market’s uptrend for nearly the entirety of the rally has been the extremely depressed equity put-call ratio. Not only has this yet to matter, the 10 Day MA of the indicator has continued to move lower.

The SPX’s short-term RSI indicator remains overbought. Again, this condition marked a key trading top in October. But in August, the SPX continued higher for another two weeks before it “mattered.”

The RSI of the IWO Small Cap Growth ETF / Large Cap Growth IWF ratio has fallen to its lowest level (34) since early September – the last time it was oversold. See additional commentary and charts below.---still bearish on russell 2000

The US Dollar continues to battle near its 200 Day MA in the hopes of notching an important key higher low.

The 10 Year Yield has made marginal highs in recent weeks, but has yet to convincingly puncture a clear long-term resistance zone.
===============================
SPX keeps up as Fed back it up with extreme loose policy.

asx200 will have a little retrace judge by it's future action last night, also it hit 7000 at yesterday's cash market. expecting it to range bound today, 6940ish ---7000ish. it's Friday!!
longer term it is bullish as RBA kept rate at 01%.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 8 2021, 08:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

the future looks asx200 will have a retrace tomorrow, but the night is young as US market hasn't open up yet!! tongue.gif

aussie market is in a uptrend that is clear thingy!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 8 2021, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The SPX achieved its most recent upside target of 4,035 two days ago on Monday, April 5th.



2

While the traditional patterns have come and gone over the last number of months, the same upward sloping channel has persisted for over a year now.



3
The last few days have produced a fresh breakout with an upside target of 4,265. That lines up with the 4,270 upside objective that was triggered way back in July.



4
The SPX’s 14 period RSI on the TWO-HOUR CHART is at the highest point since October 12th, which was a key trading top.

5

95% of the SPX’s components now are above their respective 200 Day MAs. This only has happened in two prior periods over the last 31 years: December, 2003 – January, 2004 and September – October, 2009. Both occurred closer to major bottoms than to major tops.



6

Despite the SPX making new highs, various Small and Mid-Cap Growth ETFs have been lagging. One example is the IWO R2k Small Cap Growth ETF, which continues to sport a clear potential topping pattern.



7

The US Dollar is facing a key test: it’s back below its 200 Day MA, after working off its prior overbought condition.



8

The German DAX has acquired both upside targets, and now its RSI is the highest since early June, 2020. A pause would be a healthy next step.



9

The breakout in Greece’s Athens Stock Exchange General Index continues with a target 925. The index is getting closer to a multi-YEAR breakout, as well. Charts are below.



10

A double bottom in Gold remains a potential… but there would be a lot of overhead supply to deal with next, starting in the 1750-60 range.

=========================================
again , russell 2000 had down day despite SPX performed well, this divergence usually showing top formation , but can't see things clear as Fed kept loose monetary policy atm.


asx200 seems will march on to over 7000 very soon! imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 8 2021, 08:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/las...317-p57bfc.html

“If you don’t get wages growth, then people will be stuck with these mortgages for much longer and that’s going to have an impact. If people are stuck with low wages then they can’t pay off these mortgages,” he says. “A 25 or 50 basis point increase in interest rates will be really felt, especially by first-home buyers. It’s going to have a big impact on debt repayment.”

==============

to be honest, can't just blame RBA , you have waistful jobkeeper, all major central banks drop rate like end of day is coming, and people all wash with "free" cash.
just not sure how this will end???????????????? from the economic101----- it will end with disaster [ like JAPS, lost three decade] or something even worse. cool.gif

but we in the new era, might end with good out come, who knows!!! weirdsmiley.gif

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 7 2021, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Traders are starting to bet on sultry summer surge in US economic activity as the weather warms and vaccine distribution continues apace...

To say that the recent economic data out of the US has been strong would be an understatement.

Fresh on the heels of last week’s jaw-dropping 64.7 reading in the ISM manufacturing PMI survey, a 37-year high, yesterday’s ISM services PMI figure came in at 63.7, a record high for the 40+ years the survey has been ongoing. Meanwhile, Friday’s NFP report showed that the US economy created a staggering 916k net new jobs in March, the highest print in the last seven months. Far from a mere “return to normal,” traders are starting to bet on sultry summer surge in US economic activity as the weather warms and vaccine distribution continues apace.

As the data continues to exceed expectations, traders continue to drive US indices higher. Even with the huge FANMAG stocks lagging the broader market, we’ve seen a smooth rotation to industrial, material, retail, and other “reopening” sectors. As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 has grinded its way steadily higher for a full year now, with any temporary dips finding support near the bottom of a rising channel and the 100-day EMA:

With the widely-followed index now holding above the key psychological level at 4,000, bulls may feel emboldened to push the S&P 500 up to the next noteworthy level of resistance, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the Q1 2020 COVID-19 pandemic selloff near 4140. That area also marks the top of the current upward-trending channel, which could provide another excuse for buyers to take short-term profits.

Regardless, the S&P 500 has closed below its 50-day EMA exactly once in the past five months, so traders will likely continue to buy any near-term dips as long as the index remains above 3900 in the coming weeks.

========================
it does looked bullish for SPX as it refused to have meaningful retrace last night's action.

ASX200, i reckon 6900 won't be the cap for it, still think that 7000 or above for asx200 near term. imho

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 6 2021, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

as SPX made big jump while asx closed
could see US market rally more

asx200 showing strong buying signal as it's future seems out of clearer
2accumilate zone" . tongue.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 6 2021, 09:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Worst day for the dollar in nearly two-months
It was the most bearish session in nearly two months for the US dollar index (DXY), as strong economic data saw the inverse correlation between equities and the dollar return. Since its low at the end of March there have been two clear waves of buying which has obviously coincided with USD majors coming under pressure. But if economic data remains firm and equities continue to soar higher, it could well weigh on the dollar broadly and send the US dollar index lower.

Yesterday’s bearish outside candle closed on its bullish trendline form the 25th of February low and just above 92.50 support. Whilst this pivotal level could provide a minor technical bounce over the near-term we fancy its chances of breaking support and heading towards the 91.30/40 lows.

A break below 92.50 invalidates the bullish trendline and brings the 91.30 low into focus.
91.7 could be an interim target as this is where the 100 and 50-day eMA’s reside.
The bias remains for a break of the trendline whilst prices remain beneath the bearish outside candle’s high. So, this does allow for a minor rebound from current levels first.

=====================

most of it , is TA stuff . DYOR .

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 6 2021, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

It’s no wonder the Chinese stockmarket is among the worst performers globally at the moment, even though the economy recovered first from the pandemic and has been growing strongly now for the past 8 months.

The Chinese government is the source for most of the problems and weaknesses in the markets.

There’ve been constant attacks on businesses, including Alibaba founder Jack Ma, a stream of warnings from regulators and the central bank about debt, stockmarket volatility, property prices, loans and lately, a crackdown on pollution and capacity cuts in the huge steel industry.

Then there’s the attacks on democracy in Hong Kong and stepped-up pressure on Taiwan which the US has criticised several times and raised tensions.

It’s why the country’s senior stockmarket index, the CSI300 (which blends the top blue chips on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges) was actually 6 points lower on Friday than when it started 2021 and the Shanghai Composite has struggled to produce a rise of 0.3% in the same time.

These fears haven’t impacted the Hong Kong stockmarket where the Hang Seng index is up 6.3% so far this year.

By way of comparison the ASX 200 is up 3.9%, the Dow is up 8.3%, the S&P 500 is up 7% and the Nasdaq is up 4.6%.

That’s despite China being the only economy to experience positive growth in 2020 (the US economy shrank by 3.5%).

Now the US and Australian economies for instance seem to be enjoying stronger growth than China, judging by the sharp expansion mapped by the various surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity for March in China, the US and Australia.

The near constant warnings and attacks on business, markets, banks and others seem to have shattered confidence and adds to the campaign of intimidation that President Xi Jing Pi is using in Hong Kong, Taiwan, against countries like Australia and the UK and against western companies like H&M and Burberry for daring to criticise China’s treatment of the Uyghurs and the used of forced labour camps.

Last week saw a crackdown on the steel industry (see separate story) and on the same day as that was announced, China’s central bank warned of growing financial risks in the country that have accumulated over the years, as well as shocks from overseas uncertainties.

The detailed comments mark the latest warning from high-level officials in China in recent weeks about domestic market risks.

These risks include “oscillation” in the stock and fixed income markets and potential bond defaults in real estate companies, according to comments from Zou Lan, director of the People’s Bank of China’s financial markets department.

The detailed comments mark the latest warning from high-level officials in China in recent weeks about domestic market risks.

The coronavirus pandemic and high volatility in international capital flows have also shocked the Chinese financial markets, Zou told reporters.

“The stock, bond and commodities markets face oscillation risks,” he said, according to a translation of his Mandarin-language remarks by US financial news group, CNBC.

“A small number of large-scale enterprise groups are still in a period of risks being exposed, middle and low-quality enterprises still face financing difficulties, and the risk of default is rather high.”

Zou added that pressure from rising house prices in some “hot” cities is relatively large, and the potential of debt default and other risks among highly leveraged medium-sized and small real estate businesses is worth watching.

New home prices rose by their fastest rate in five months in February, according to Reuters and on the weekend the Financial Times reported small local banks and foreign banks were moving to restrain property lending as they react to the pressure from the central bank and banking regulators.

Reuters reported that People’s Bank of China officials told Thursday’s press conference that monetary policy would remain stable and supportive (That’s the usual mantra for China).

But there is clear evidence of the central bank slowly tightening monetary policy in recent months to try and slow lending for property transactions.

Reuters said that Zou did not give specific details on how the financial risks he mentioned would be addressed.

===================
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 6 2021, 09:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Global iron ore and Chinese steel prices are set for a shaking over the next month as the government kicks off a surprise inspection of steelmaking facilities that will check companies’ adherence to pollution control measures and steel-making capacity reductions agreed to as far ago as 2015 and 2016.

News of the month-long checks emerged late last week and will see inspectors inspecting steel making firms and their operations in eight provinces.

The inspections are likely to carry more force than those in previous years in the wake of the capacity cuts and output reductions handed out to more than 20 producers in Tangshan last month.

Chinese media say inspectors will visit Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Guangxi and Yunan provinces to ensure that steelmakers are continuing to meet environmental protection policies and reducing emissions as well as checking the performance and implementation of capacity reduction in major industries with high pollution and high energy consumption.

That means other industries such as cement making and older energy-intensive industries will also be visited.

In 2016, steel capacity cuts of 150 million tonnes were announced and supposedly implemented but rising production in 2018, 2019 and 2020 (when total production topped a billion tonnes for the first time) associated with rising smog in 2020, has led to claims that the reductions have not been fully implemented.

Staring Today (April 6) the inspections will last for a month. Similar inspections have been reported in 2019, 2018 and 2017 with little apparent impact.

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment started regular environmental checks in late 2015 and finished the first round on all provinces by 2018 to improve local environment and reduce runaway industrial capacity, including those in the ferrous supply chain.

Reuters reported that China’s state planning and industry ministry Thursday announced planned inspections to check on implementation of steel capacity cuts in the past few years and reiterated its intention to curb crude steel output further in 2021 to reduce emissions.

The latest inspections follow the crackdown in Tangshan (producing 122 million tonnes of crude steel a year) which saw the government order production cuts lasting anywhere from a month to the end of the year for a group of companies claimed to have breached previous pollution control measures.

While Tangshan is the economic centre of northern Hebei province, it is also one of China’s most polluted cities due to its heavy industry (especially steel, coke and sintering, oil refining and cement manufacturing). It is also a source of smog for the region, which includes nearby Beijing.

The singling out of Tangshan is why some analysts reckon the latest inspections will have a more tangible outcome in the first year of the new five year economic plan in which all sectors will be under pressure to implement policy changes and meet targets.

China has pledged to cut its crude steel output in 2021 from a record 1.06 billion tonnes it churned out last year to cut carbon emissions.

The steel sector accounts for 15% of China’s total emissions, topping all other manufacturing categories.

Analysts say it is part of efforts to ensure steel output falls this year. And that will mean a fall in demand for iron ore from Australia and other countries.

March saw the first impact on iron ore demand from the crackdown on pollution and smog problems – now the checking on capacity cuts will add to that pressure on prices and demand.

The pollution crackdown in Tangshan has seen Chinese steel mills chase higher quality ore from Brazil in preference to the usual target of 62% Fe fines from the Pilbara region of Australia.

The prices of all three types – 58% Fe, 62% fe and 65% Fe (all fines) showed the impact of the switch away from 58% and 62% Fe fines in March as the Tangshan pollution cutbacks hit hard (and forced steelmakers in other cities to take the issue of smog and pollution controls much more seriously).

While the price of all three ore types fell in March, the drop was more pronounced for 62% Fe fines and 58% – the ore products shipped by BHP, Rio and by Fortescue and Vale from Brazil.

Fastmarkets data show the price of 62% Fe fines delivered to northern China dropped $US1.43 a tonne on the final day of the quarter to $165.15.

That was down nearly $US10 a tonne from the $US175.78 a tonne in February 26. But it also left a small gain from the $US160.47 a tonne at the end of 2020 (December 31).

The price of 65% Fe fines (Ex Brazil) rose 90 cents on Wednesday to end of month and quarter at $US194.10.

That left it down just under $US5 a tonne over March, but up a substantial $US20.40 a tonne since the end of December in another strong signal that the pollution crackdown is sending Chinese steel mills in chase of higher-grade ores such as the 65% fines from Brazil.

The price of 58% Fe fines (the sort that still make up much of Fortescue’s shipments and some from Roy Hill, the Gina Rinehart mine) also suffered a hit in March and the first quarter.

The price fell $US21 a tonne in March to $US140.94 a tonne on March 31. That fall made up all the $US2.64 a tonne drop in the price since December 31 – from $US149.63 to $US146.99 a tonne.

…………

News of the looming crackdown saw benchmark iron ore futures on the Dalian Futures market in China rise on Friday but were down more than 10% over the week while steel rebar and hot rolled coil prices closed at record highs on supply curbs.

Iron ore trading in Asia on Thursday (April 1) saw traders ignore the crackdown news. They seemed to have responded to the jump in Chinese steel product prices and the rise in Chinese iron ore futures.

The price of 62% Fe fines delivered to northern China rose $US2.45 to $167.65 a tonne. The price of 58% Fe fines rose $3.20 to $US150.19 while the price of 65% Fe fines also rose – up $US3 to $US197.10 a tonne.
=======================

from our own sharecafe........
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 5 2021, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.thewirechina.com/2021/04/04/boxed-in-on-china/

Balance-of-payments deficits, not the so-called China problem, are the macroeconomic source of America’s overall trade deficit.

.....

===========================

i can't open up the whole article -----------but i can have guess what STEPHEN S. ROACH brag about!!

he is right or wrong, there is one thing for us everyday little people-------the world needs peace , keeps tit for tat innocent people will be hurt the most, not those scumbag politicians in the end. imho

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 3 2021, 08:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Since 1928, the SPX has logged April gains in 61/93 months (66% win rate) with an average move of 1.37%.



2

More recently, the SPX has been up 16 of the last 20 Aprils with an average move of +2.5%. Four of the top 10 April all-time best gains have occurred in the last 20 years (2020, 2009, 2003 and 2001), as well.



3
After March gains of at least 3%, the SPX was higher in April 17/26 times (65% of the time), with an average move of +1.3%. This lines up with the historical averages for ALL Aprils.



4
The SPX’s “average” path over the last 20 years shows an extension of the March rally. The month has tended to have a jagged, yet, bullish start and an even stronger second half for April.

5

The NASDAQ vs. SPX relative strength line also has bottomed in April on average over the last 20 years.



6

The VIX is coming off two straight monthly declines of 10% in February and March. The bias since 2015 after big down months suggests a VIX bounce, but the VIX’s historical track over the last two decades calls for continued weakness.



7

The SPX also comes into April having logged FOUR STRAIGHT QUARTELY GAINS OF AT LEAST 5%. The last time this happened was from the quarters ending 3/1995 through 12/1995. That was the very beginning of an ultimate 14 quarter win streak, which ended after the 2nd quarter of 1998.



8

The 10 Year Yield is pulling back after a marginal new high, similar to what we’ve seen before. Of note, there’s a slight 14-Day RSI divergence; we’ve seen this before, too, and the uptrend continued anew soon thereafter.



9

The German DAX acquired its first target of 14,960; the next one remains alive: 15,230.



10

Crude Oil’s battle continues between holding the 50 Day MA and the long-term uptrend line vs. the completion of a bearish H&S pattern.

====================

SPX closed above 4000, , bullish ,


asx200 gonna follow through on next week, i'd like to think it will. above 6900 then target 7000, next week , on TA base!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 1 2021, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/ca...ion/ar-BB1fbGXb

After returning to Singapore, Dr Wong stopped payment on a blank cheque he signed to cover his losses incurred during the stay.

In 2019, the Singapore court dismissed The Star's lawsuit against Wong, seeking to recover his gambling debts.


======================== unsure.gif

i want to be a Singaporean !! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Apr 1 2021, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

east long weekend

try to close all the position [ long or short] excluding hedging . tongue.gif

have a safe holiday guys!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Apr 1 2021, 08:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

How Japanese Investors Accelerated the Treasury Selloff
Banks focused on booking profits by the Japanese fiscal year-end unloaded bonds in recent weeks

The sharp rise in Treasury yields in recent weeks looked like a test of whether the Federal Reserve can keep interest rates low after the economy regains its footing.

Under the surface, other factors drove the selloff in U.S. government bonds, pushing prices down and yields up, according to investors and analysts. One factor was heavy selling by investors in Japan who were locking in investment returns for their year-end.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from close to 1% at the end of January to an intraday peak of over 1.77% on Tuesday.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-japanese-i...re_below_a_pos1

===============================
when comes to money-----no one murk around .....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Apr 1 2021, 08:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

March ended up a big month for the Australian stock exchange – a 1.8% gain for the month and a very tasty 3.1% jump in the quarter.

A big contrast to a year ago when the COVID-19 pandemic flattened everything – although we know now that march 22-23 was the bottom of the slump and from then on it was onwards and upwards.

The ASX 200 touched a five-week high during Wednesday’s session before dipping in the final moments to close the day 0.8% higher at 6,790 points.

March’s 1.8% rise was the best monthly performance since a 10% gain in November, and compares with a 21.1% fall in March 2020.

A year ago, the ASX 200 fell 24% (yes, 24%) in the March quarter of 2020! That was a fall of $450 billion in market value.

Tokyo rose more than 6% with the Nikkei outperforming many other markets; Hong Kong rose by more than 4% and the Chinese markets down for the quarter but higher for the month. The CSI 300 index lost around 4% in the quarter as it weakened in March.

The Aussie dollar sagged 3% or so in the month, losing 2.27 US cents (according to Reserve bank data), falling to 76.02 US cents from 28.29 US cents at the end of February.

The Trade Weighted index also dipped, down 1.4 percentage points to 63.9.

The risk-off mood lately has been set off by a surge in bond yields on fears about rising inflation (which will happen in the middle of 2021 as the 2020 base rolls over).

US Treasury 10-year bond yields surged 83 basis points in the quarter (touching 1.77% on Tuesday), the biggest increase in over a decade.

Tech stocks were sold off, even though they have made heaps of money during times of high interest rates.

The yield on 10-year Australian Government bonds rose from 0.97% at the end of December to 1.78% on Wednesday.

Gold is down more than 11% year to date, oil is up by around 25%, copper is up by around 13%.

============================

just some of figures, seems aussie market still have some fuels to go..... tongue.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 31 2021, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Commodities: Oil prices continue to coil, gold bulls fold
Oil prices produced inside days yesterday’s and their second consecutive session of indecision, where prices move higher and lower yet settle the day near their opening prices. Given the volatility of last week then it's good to see the market pause for breath. But the coiling nature of price action this week means we may be approaching another burst of volatility.

Gold prices sliced through 1700 support with apparent ease as the strong dollar and higher real yields weighed on the precious metal. A break beneath 1670 would be a significant level for bears to conquer and could invoke a stronger sell-off, assuming large stops which likely reside beneath that support level get triggered.

========================

just TA stuff , DYOR as always!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 31 2021, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

AUD/USD closes in on key support
Prices have held above 0.7557 support since December. Since then, prices have rallied to 80c (for all of five minutes) and created a lower high and a lower low. Whilst not ‘textbook perfect’ the daily chart is grinding out a bearish reversal pattern similar to a head and shoulders top pattern and its measured move from the 80c top to the neckline around 0.7557 projects a target just above 71c.

Whilst this target may be on the ambitious side for some, a clear break of 0.7557 would bring the 0.7462 low into focus, and/or technical levels around 0.7400 where the 200-day eMA resides.

As yesterday closed with a bearish outside day which was capped by the 10-day eMA, we suspect a retest of neckline support is on the cards.

A break below 0.7557 could confirm a longer-term head and shoulders reversal pattern, with a target around 0.7100.
Over the near-term, bears could target the lows around 0.7400 and 0.7462.
The bias remains bearish beneath yesterday’s bearish outside day high at 0.7664.

==============

it is all based on TA , good for short term trading imho!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 31 2021, 08:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.4% to its highest level since early November, closing the session above the 11th of November high in another show of bullish defiance. In turn this saw USD/CHF tap an 8-month high after finding support above the June 2020 lows and USD/JPY hit a fresh 1-year high.

AUD/JPY closed the day with a bearish pinbar to warn of weakness at its six-day high. A break beneath yesterday’s low brings a bearish bias for the session although potential support at 83.30 remains due to the Marabuzo line previously mentioned.
AUD/NZD fell to a 5-day low after printing a series of upper wicks (selling tails) around 1.0936 resistance. A potential target for counter-trend traders is the 1.0850 handle, just above the February high.

============================

USD still in the range bound , now it hit top end.. ohmy.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 31 2021, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

It was a mixed picture on Wall Street with the technology stocks leading the way lower whilst the Russell 2000 posted a minor gain. The S&P 500 was slightly lower yet remains above its 10-day eMA. It is the second indecision candle in a row which shows prices are coiling ahead of the long weekend and Friday’s Nonfarm payroll report. Consumer staples and information technology were the weakest sectors, and 259 (51.3%) stocks declined whilst 246 (48.7%) advanced.

It was a different vibe in Europe with the Euro STOXX and DAX hitting fresh record highs with conviction and the CAC probing the March high. The FTSE 100 accelerated away from its 10-day eMA to seven day high.

Australia’s ASX 200 rolled over from its highs yesterday after another failed attempt to break above 6850 the previous session. Queensland entering another lockdown for three days with the prospects of it being extended over the Easter break weighed on sentiment Still, SPI 200 futures are +41 points higher so ASX 200 is set to open around 6780.

------------------

and also...that margin call from Archegos not help, and quarter end window thingy......!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 31 2021, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

The rise of yields hit a technical speedbump
US 10-year treasury yield hit its highest level since January 2020, yet later reversed to produce a bearish pinbar and settle at 1.7%. Two technical factors they may be part of the reversal are that yields are now trading around their 200-week eMA and the 10-year treasury note (which moves inversely to yields) is trading around a historical support level around 94’14.

Interestingly the 30-year yield (long end of the curve) failed to retest its March high and closed with a bearish outside day at 2.36%. So given these early signs, this is certainly something to watch for a potential trend reversal even if it is not the consensus at present.

=================

worth a look at it. at least for a short term long bet fpr US 10 years. imho it is risk though!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 30 2021, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Gold finally broke out its small 4-day range to the downside, sliding over -1.5% near the session low but now trades around 1711 at -1.2%. Silver also touched a 2-day low and closed beneath $25, although remains above its 200-day eMA and has several potential support levels above $24.

Oil prices are holding up quite well, considering ‘that boat’ everyone is talking about is no longer grounded. We outlined the case for prices to try and carve out a low and for brent to break above $65 if we do not see any large bearish candles o the daily timeframe

================

keep eye on oil price imho, it might give a hint of market direction if the price moves clear [one way or the other]
can't see clearer now, just have wait!!

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 30 2021, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Forex: Dollar remains firm
The US dollar caught a bid overnight as investors weighed up the knock-on effect from Archegos Capital’s margin call. The US dollar index produced a bullish engulfing candle and remains above its 200-day eMA.

Conversely, EUR/USD is probing Thursday’s low and continues to look weak beneath its 200-day eMA and 1.1800 handle, with next major support sitting around the 1.1744 low.
AUD/USD is holding above its 100-day eMA and touched a 3-day high overnight yet is another market which produced an indecision candle. With no domestic news scheduled today it could be another quiet session.
AUD/JPY is holding above its Marabuzo line (outlined in yesterday’s Asian open report). If prices continue to hold above 83.30 then the bias remains bullish over the near-term.
AUD/NZD is struggling to break above 1.0936 resistance (September high), having now produced three upper wicks, two of which are bearish pinbars. We currently favour its chances of a retracement from its highs although 1.0843 is a likely support level to keep in mind.

=======================

just some TA analysis for short term move. DYOR as always

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 30 2021, 08:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Indices: Wall Street wobbles at their highs
Banks could be facing losses of up to billions of dollars after Archegos Capital Management were forced to liquidate positions on Friday. Japan’s largest investment Bank, Nomura said it could be facing up to $2 billion in losses and Credit Suisse fell over -14% when they said that a fund had failed to cover its margin calls.

Whilst this could turn out to be a contained event, it does leave some worried that there could be others out there. As Warren Buffet once famously said “only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked”, and some are weighing up the odds that the tide has turned (and that perhaps they themselves are naked). Still, Nikkei 225 futures (Nomura is listed on the Nikkei) are taking it within stride and currently 0.9% higher ahead of today’s open.

The Russell 2,000 produced a bearish outside candle after finding resistance at its 10 and 20-day eMA’s. With a potential swing high in place on the daily charts, the lows around 2066 – 2085 could appeal to bearish swing traders.

The S&P 500 printed a minor intraday record high but ultimately closed the session with an indecision candle (Rikshaw man Doji). Yet market internals were skewed to the downside with more sectors and stocks declining than advancing. Utilities (+1.07%) and consumer non-cyclical sectors were the strongest of the session, energy (-1.37%) and financials (-1.3%) were the weakest. 206 stocks in the index advanced whilst 299 stocks declined.


ASX200 stalls at 6850 (again….)
Australia’s ASX 200 has effectively been range bound between 6660 – 6850 since the end of February. Over this time there have been four failed attempts to break above 6850, and each time it produced a high wick then closed beneath that level to print a swing high. We therefore find yesterday’s bearish candle and ‘seller’s tail’ at resistance of interest.
A break beneath 6790 could be taken as a sign that mean reversion is underway.
The bias remains bearish beneath 6860.60.
We have a loose downside target between 6660 – 6709. Notice that spikes have appeared near the lower target whilst closing prices have appeared around the upper target.

=================

seems this analysis still bearish for our market.
to me it seems stuck in the "no mans land" atm , might be wait for the clear move from oversea's market??
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 30 2021, 08:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Markets remain quite jumpy, waiting to see if there is another shoe or shoes to come from the supposed margin call.



I think some of the early bouncing around reflected the fact that there was no immediate surprise or continued heavy disruption.



That having been said, they moved back into nervousness quite easily. I will watch the Old Fogey’s Handbook. Years ago, the tradition on margin calls was thought to be to watch at 10:30 and 2:30. Many years ago, back when we were still using clay tablets, first margin calls would go out about 10:30, assuming that you had not paid up on any notifications you had the day before and, then, if you failed to produce by 2:30, they began to execute the correcting orders to gain the money you had failed to pay.



I am sure all of those times have changed and, probably so has the procedure, but many old fogies will probably be watching those two times, reinforced by the idea the Friday disrupt occurred around 2:30.



So, take that reference and the timing with a grain of salt of the type that you need a wagon to carry around.



We will also be curious to see if investigation shows if Mr. Hwang was actively involved in the Reddit trades when some of the naïve financial media thought it was David vs. Goliath and as we said, most of us old fogeys realized it was Goliath vs. Goliath with at least one hedge fund disguised on one side.



So, it will be interesting to see who was part of that.



In the meantime, hang on. Volatility may continue through the day.



Stay safe.

============================
seems not much happening last night's session from major market overseas
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 29 2021, 01:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

if it goes under 10 bucks again , i might start to buy some.

reason is simple-------they won't lose the chinese market all together . the high end stuff still can sell in that market,
the price higher the better.

in China ----the one who buys the expensive wine won't drink them selves . the one who drinks it won't buy them selves!! [that's how things work out there most of time] weirdsmiley.gif



  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Mar 29 2021, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

$102ish as i'm typing.

when it will drop below 100 bucks?? that is my target!! ohmy.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Mar 29 2021, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Monday Market Minutes: Short Week Looking at Strong Start

The ASX is heading for a strong start to trading later today as the end of the month and quarter approaches and investors go through some ’strategic’ buying and selling.

There’s a lot of data from local and offshore to be released that could impact trading this week.

There’s the March 31 end of quarter for a string of local companies and the end of the first quarter for miners, and overseas, the always important US first quarter of 2021.

Key economic data will be released here, in China, Japan and the US especially ahead of the long Easter Break starting Friday (see Diary).

Ahead of this the overnight futures market ended with a 49-point gain for the ASX futures contract, so a strong start to trading this morning is expected.

That will go nicely with the 0.5% rise on Friday which ended the local market’s best week in seven and saw the ASX 200 finish the week 1.7% higher at 6,824.2.

That was a stronger gain for the week than the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Stoxx 600 index in Europe.

Friday saw the Aussie dollar slip, gold, coper, oil, iron ore, silver and copper trade mostly higher and US bond yields softer after a key measure of inflation showed no concerns in February.

But the blockage in the Suez Canal which has halted all shipping in the region left commodity markets nervous (see Commodities Corner).

In fact the Aussie dollar ended at 76.40 US cents. down three quarters of a US cent over the week.

Wall Street jumped 1% in the last half hour of trading on Friday as investors rebalancing their portfolios at the quarter’s end

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1.44% on Friday following broad gains in Europe and Asia – a sign of the upbeat sentiment at week’s end.

Friday saw the Dow end up 453.4 points, or 1.39%, to 33,072.88. The S&P 500 added 65.02 points, or 1.66%, to 3,974.54 and the Nasdaq rebounded 161.05 points, or 1.24%, to 13,138.73.

It had been in the red for a while in Friday’s session as investors chased value stocks in the Dow and parts of the S&P 500.

For the week, the S&P rose about 1.6% and the Dow 1.4%, while the Nasdaq eased 0.6%.

Blue chip Chinese stocks rebounded more than 2.2% on Friday after a three-day losing streak.

The gain came after signs of a renewed crackdown on debt by Chinese monetary authorities. The CSI 300 index only managed a rise of 29 points for the week, or 0.05%.

In Tokyo the nikkei rose 1.5% on friday in a strong rebound from previous weakness that still left the index down more than 2% for the week.

In Europe the Stoxx 600 index added 0.9% on Friday which was all the week’s gain of 0.8%.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell 1.68%, from 1.614% late on Thursday after ending around 1.72% the previous Friday (and touching 1.75% the same day).

The key PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data for February showed a fall in consumer spending and a 0.1% rise in core inflation (so-called PCE inflation favoured and tracked closely by the US Federal Reserve) in the month for an annual rate of 1.4%, down from 1.5% in January and still well short of the Fed’s now ‘flexible’ 2% inflation target.

Weekly money flow data from Bank of America showed global investors stopped the charge into equities that had been going on for the previous few weeks and pushed $US45.6 billion into cash management funds, the largest since April 2020, when COVID-19 was spreading quickly.

The stars on the ASX last week were CSL and Telstra. CSL shares rose 5.3% as the first locally-made vaccine shots began rolling out of the company’s Melbourne plant

Telstra added another 2.4% on Friday taking its weekly gain to 6.2% after it revealed its future corporate structure – four separate entities.

====================================================

from our own sharecafe.
to me asx200 is out of dagger zone, going for up side, but the week is short, i guess not many people like tp hold large position through the long weekend at current uncertainty.

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 27 2021, 11:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

March 26, 2021

China Ore Bust? – The Sequel

The Tangshan pollution control story continues to buffet iron ore prices and there will be more to come as Chinese steelmaker adjust imports to take account of the restrictions chopping more than 30 million tonnes.

The impact on Australia is prospective at this stage, but there has been a noticeable slid in the value of iron ore exports from December to February, driven by lower volumes in January and February and lower prices last month.

The fall is a hard to ignore 33% or so, or $4 billion in lower export income.

Now the doubts about the situation in Tangshan could add pressure on volumes in coming months.

Just how much will eventually be cut remain to be seen, as the brawl over pollution could very well be a power struggle between steel companies and local authorities in Tangshan.

Tangshan accounts for around 144 million tonnes of crude steel output a year – about 14% of China’s annual output in 2020, so it has a substantial impact on iron ore demand.

From what’s happening in futures and in the daily markets in Asia, the price of 62% Fe fines is coming under greater pressure than that for the 65% fines (which come mostly from Brazil).

That’s due to the preference of steelmaker at times of pollution problems to buy higher quality iron ore for its greater yield and lower sintering requirements.

The premium between 65% Fe fines ($US189.20 on Wednesday) and 58 Fe fines (145.71) was around $US42 a tonne – that was up $US3 a tonne from the previous Wednesday when the Tangshan story started breaking and an indicator of the higher demand for 65% ore. In fact the price of 65% ore edged up 90 cents a tonne on Wednesday of this week while the price of 62% fines dipped by 3 cents a tonne.

Thursday saw a repeat – a fall of $US1.54 a tonne in the price of 62% Fe fines to $US159.85, but a rise of $US1.20 a tonne for 65% fines to $US190.40.

That’s an important indicator of changing demand patterns in China at the moment and hints at emerging downward pressures on the price of our key export product, 62% Fe iron ore fines to China.

That switch to 65%% Fe fines (they are not as plentiful as the 62% fines from Australia or parts of Brazil) helps explain why Fortescue Metal’s share price had been hit hardest of the three major miners (BHP and Rio are the other two).

Fortescue shares are down 4.4% in the past five days and more than 23% in the last month. Rio shares are down 2.5% in the past five days and 16% over the month while BHP shares are off only 1.7% and 11% in the last month (BHP has coal, oil, copper to cushion itself against weaker iron ore prices, Rio has copper (and some aluminium), Fortescue is a pure iron ore play selling 58% to 60% fines that are not as desirable as they were in late 2020.

Australian iron ore exports are down more than 12 million tonnes in January (7.2 million) and February (down 5.2 million tonnes). The impact of the fall in volumes has been disguised by the high prices compared to a year ago. The fall in the value of iron ore exports in February was mostly due to the lower volumes.

The value of iron ore exports to China was $8.531 billion in February, down from $9.665 billion in January and $12.510 billion in December which was the all-time high.

That means the value of iron ore exports has fallen by a third from December to February with the drop in volumes to China playing a major part.

Meanwhile world crude steel production in the member countries (64) of the World Steel Association (worldsteel) rose 4.1% in February to 150.2 million tonnes from February 2020 (when the pandemic hit Chinese production hardest of all).

China is estimated to have produced 83.0 million tonnes in February 2021, up 10.9% on February 2020 (and 175 million for the first two months of the year).

Indian production fell 3.1% to 9.1 million tonnes (Mt), down 3.1%. Japan produced 7.5 Mt, down 5.6%. The United States produced 6.3 Mt, down 10.9%. Russia is estimated to have produced 5.7 Mt, down 1.3%. South Korea produced 5.5 Mt, up 1.2%. Turkey produced 3.0 Mt, up 5.9%.

Germany produced 3.1 Mt, down 10.4%. Brazil produced 2.8 Mt, up 3.8%. Iran is estimated to have produced 2.3 Mt, up 11.5%, according to a truncated report from the World Steel Association.

=====================

it's from our own sharecafe

-----------
It appears that the giant ship blocking the Suez Canal is going to be stuck for a lot longer. Even with an elite team trying to extricate it, experts said the earliest the boat may move is next Wednesday—much longer than initially feared. The longer the blockage lasts, the more it disrupts global supply chains and threatens to increase prices. Reverberations from the shutdown may be felt for months after the mess is cleaned up. Already, oil tankers are rerouting and major companies like Ikea and Caterpillar foresee potential delays. One shipping executive summed it up: “If it can’t be resumed in a week, it will be horrible.”

--------------

from bloomberg

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 27 2021, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Let’s face it: Covid has made people crazy, and not just as a possible side effect of the virus. Caution about government mandates are met with derision by some, and some believe that laser-guided lizards are consuming preschool children in the playground.

Covid has caused once-sober central bankers to hit the bottle. It has caused major upheavals in the credit markets that have never happened before. As the WSJ highlights, creditors are not normally seen sending checks to debtors unless interest rates are negative as they are in Europe. Sidney Homer, who wrote the book on interest rates that went back 10 centuries, never once mentions negative interest rates. The book, The History of Interest Rates, went into its 4th edition in 2005, when ten year notes averaged 4.3% and growth was solidly positive.

If rates mirror the health and wealth of nations, something remains deeply askew even as the US may reach herd immunity before June. Rates should rise as the populace and the economy heals.

The ten-year note has returned to its natural position as arbiter of all other asset classes. Ryan Grabinski observes this morning, “As interest rates declined precipitously in 2020, forward price to earnings multiples for the tech-heavy NASDAQ expanded rapidly. Year to date, we have seen the opposite happen and will likely continue to do so even if the rate rise pauses here. A recovery in earnings will naturally lead to multiple compression.”

The necessary rise in rates from an unusually low level has begun to cause the most speculative aspects of the market to wobble. Some companies who have tied themselves to easy money and inflated dreams will come tumbling down, even with celebrity endorsements coming from Shaq, Serena, or Colin.

Prior to the crisis, the world’s smartest bankers were pursuing Adam Neumann as if he was a K-pop star (When Cathy Wood was recently in Korea her Tesla sedan was swamped with adoring fans). Mr. Neumann himself was walking barefoot across the streets of Manhattan to visit one of his three trophy properties while he telepathically communicated happiness to New York’s sullen masses. Mr. Neumann was described in more than one publication as “messianic”, a description that history shows is both a blessing and a curse. “We are here in order to change the world,” he once said. “Nothing less than that interests me.” He left New York late in 2019 on a private jet citing its “negative energy”.

The concept of WeWork, the dour grave-dancing imp Sam Zell pointed out rudely on CNBC, had been tried before and never worked. It would lead to bankruptcy. Amazingly, despite losing billions since that dire forecast in September of 2019, WeWork is being reincarnated into a SPAC that has been blessed by Shaq O’Neal. Last year after slashing capital spending by thousands of millions, it still lost $3.4 billion. Via a new SPAC, it now claims that it will make a profit next year of $485 million as vacancy rates move up to levels even higher than before the Covid crisis. (> greater than 90%). Presumably, if such a surge in demand occurs, Mr. Neumann can rejoin the board and repurchase his Gulfstream G-700. Maybe even he can buy a pair of shoes.

SoftBank, which backed away from its investment in WeWork well before Covid, instructed its bankers to use “any excuse” not to put additional monies into the shared space, work-enhancing, marijuana-infused enterprise. It’s hard to believe, but true: none other than Goldman Sachs estimated the value of WeWork in 2019 at $60 billion. Incredibly, they were dumping their inside shares of the company while pitching it to the public.

Covid has abruptly ended a bull market in commercial real estate that has been positively sloped for decades. In order to rehabilitate ailing cities, deep discounts will have to be offered to tenants, both commercial and residential. Such rental discounts, Lawrence Summers cautioned in a call with Strategas two weeks ago today, are distorting core CPI to the low side.

But rents are indeed falling, and there is work to do before urban spaces see the demand that existed in, let’s say, December of 2019, when parents and their pink-cheeked children were crammed by the thousands to see the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree illuminated right smack in the middle of a congested Manhattan.

Most folks are not as willing to dismiss food and energy as “core” expenses when running a household. There are increasing gripes about the rising cost of groceries and gasoline. Don forecasts that CPI inflation will soon move up swiftly as last year’s economic shutdowns ease. The question becomes if higher inflation prove to more durable than the Federal Reserve expects.

Chris Verrone does not see much stress coming from credit, which he believes should be gyrating if the equity market is in real trouble. Over the years, he observes, credit can be a helpful arbiter in distinguishing between a correction and something more ominous. So far, credit is firm as the Nasdaq continues to wobble.

Today, the market will absorb $62 billion in 7 year notes. Trillions more in debt will follow. In order to clear the market, real rates may have to move higher above and beyond any inflation scare.

I spoke with a pension fund manager at a company that still runs the bulk of its money in house. He is worried about rates and believes that tech is acting “like it did in the first quarter of 2000.”

The $240 billion that was dropped by Federal Reserve helicopters into bank accounts may not as yet have been deployed into fractional demand for some of the most dreamy speculative stocks. It could be that those traders were less youthful but more cynical, traded in front of the crowd. "Buy the news and sell the fact” remains a truism.

The great bloviator of the New York Times, Thomas Friedman, writes admirably about the Chinese ability to get things done. He cites dam building in China which devoured villages and valleys without a whimper of protest from Mrs. Wang or her neighbors. Many now consider the Western financed Three Gorges Dam to be an environmental disaster. “China can still get big things done. America, not so much.” Like many, he believes if the US, like China, had a five-year plan with bureaucrats deciding what innovations could live or die, the US would be more competitive. One wonders why the Soviet Union failed as they, like Elizabeth Warren during the primaries, had a plan for everything: except it’s demise.

It’s extraordinary that China is helping to finance the massive increase in US debt even as the political and military rivalry increases. Biden has not repudiated the Trumpian criticism of trade with China, but also given the rhetoric at the Alaska Summit last week, he has intensified it accusing the Chinese of genocide.

“Retail giants Nike and H&M are facing a backlash in China after they expressed concern about the alleged use of forced Uighur labor in the production of Xinjiang cotton… the latest furor appears to have been sparked by a recent social media post by the Communist Youth League, a Chinese Communist Party group” (BBC).

Companies that are reliant on the Chinese market may soon trade at a discount to account for the growing risks.

Western businesses eager to sell into China’s vast market were happy to look the other way when China clamped down on disputatious subjects only to find their own fingers in the clamp. Nike and the NBA were happy to dissociate themselves from anodyne comments from the Rockets’ Daryl Morey. Morey himself had to kowtow for having the temerity to support democrats in Hong Kong. LeBron, who is involved in the SPAC Beachbody, was quick to criticize Morey as well. LeBron had to endure days of stay at the Ritz in Bejing. It was unbearable for this master of social justice to be forced to stay in a hotel room of 1,000 square feet.

China owns about 15% of US debt. As the numbers swell, that percentage might come down, but their huge presence in the market remains yet another risk for note and bond demand in 2021. We have already seen a slight rise in rates as creating trouble. The Chinese bond market such that it is, has stalled after a rate rise that took speculative Chinese names into bear territory. The strategic skirmishes between the US and China herald more trouble ahead.

=============================

just one of the analysis. DYOR as always!!

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 26 2021, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

He also said the escalating pattern of trade punishment had generated "sympathy" for Australia and hardened attitudes towards China around the globe.

====================
sympathy???
canadian had a lot of sympathy for aussies, but they try to take a cuts for chinese coal markets as aussie been pushed out!
french had a lot of sympathy for us too, but they are in full force to take up the wine market that was for aussie wine maker worked so hard for 8---10 years..
list goes on. sympathy?? yeah right!! wink.gif

===============
The unusually blunt comments from Mr Fletcher were first reported by The Australian newspaper
--------------------------------

my guess is -----there is no way to repair this damage, so why not just keep shooting!!

as i said before when trust is lost------ it is really hard to gain it back.

give you a figure ------more than 30% of steel used for------------- from bullets for ak47---ballistic missile----fight jat....... battle ships....... aircraft carrier .....
what is % of iron ore we sell to china now??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 26 2021, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

wekness for TPG
seems people dump TPG and switch to TLS this morning. 3.43 as i'm typing.
not far from my target 3.50ish. tongue.gif
the dog has it's day !!! lmaosmiley.gif

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Mar 26 2021, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

hi nipper

sort of think that battery stock might be worth looked at atm. but i have no idea what stock to look at ----big or small!

if you know this field well , please share it with us.
thanks in advance !! tongue.gif

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

early birds
Posted on: Mar 26 2021, 08:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

buy into this weakness, if that much money been printed and inflation expectation runs wildly higher, then we should see most of banks SP will have a big pop up!! imho

WBC had so many troubles till now , think of worst is behind it, time for it to pop,

  Forum: By Share Code

early birds
Posted on: Mar 26 2021, 07:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

oil went down with other commodities, as USD firmed up again!!

so tread them with caution . can't see clear direction, although inflation expectation is up, but hasn't reflecting into commodities?? unsure.gif



  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 26 2021, 07:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Since the close on 1/26, the SPX is +60 bps. Over that time, the index now has seen four FAILED bullish patterns and two FAILED bearish patterns.

While this has been a frustrating experience for both sides of the ledger, it’s telling nonetheless. Continued failed price patterns – on both sides – adequately describes this choppy market.

The % of R2k stocks trading above their 20 Day MAs now has dropped to 16.6% after yesterday, the lowest since 9/24 (13.6%). It got to 1.5% during the March, 2020 crash.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit 40 after yesterday, moving it into the Fear Category. This is its worst level since late January.

The US Dollar has extended from the important 92 zone and is trying to nudge through its 200 Day MA for the first time since last May. That’s not helping the early risk-off feel right now.

Silver is breaking below its 200 Day MA for the first time since last May. It’s also now below a key trading range. The last breakdown attempt happened in late November and turned higher soon thereafter.

The 10 Year Yield is forming a potential bearish inverse head and shoulders pattern above 1.58%.

The German DAX’s bullish flag pattern has been voided with the recent down turn. The bigger breakout remains in play for now.

=====================================================

so still unclear where market goes?? how about " short Russell2000 if you are a bear, or long SPX if you are a bull"?? unsure.gif

asx200, the future looks gonna open at 6800ish, it's Friday, the index might target 6825ish for today's session. imho!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 25 2021, 03:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

i think it will starts from 27th March. got those email from all sorts CFD's , some says 27th, some says 29th.???? unsure.gif

anyway, a lot position closing to meet margins i guess. but seems pro traders can be spared ?? unsure.gif

it all come from ASIC

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 25 2021, 03:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

not sure nipper

calm before the storm or stabilization ?? i'm really bullish on asx200, as AUD dropped a lot since it hit 0.80 cps
should be good for our stocks, but if other major markets esp US markets correcting, then or long bets are off
just can see clearer atm!! unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 25 2021, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

asx200, if it can get though 6760, then target 6800 this week!! imho

======================

asx200 just touched 6800, target met.
you take profit like me or simply raised stops 6775, it go even a lot higher tomorrow [ last day of the week tomorrow]

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 25 2021, 08:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Commodities: Oil rebounds, gold bears lack follow-through
Oil prices rebounded and recoupled most of Tuesday’s losses after oil vessels were grounded in the Suez Canal, adding delays and possible supply disruptions. Stronger PMI data and consumer confidence across Europe also0 helped sooth fears of lower demand in H2, despite some parts in Europe now back in lockdown. WTI is back above $60 (just) and posted an impressive +5.3% gain. Given it sliced through 59.24 resistance and its 50-day eMA with apparent ease, our bearish bias has been shelved although we’d want to see a break above 63.13 before assuming bulls had fully regained control.

Brent’s rebound was less impressive, although its sell-off on Monday was also less severe and, unlike WTI, did not close beneath its 50-day eMA. Ultimately price action on oil now appears a little ambiguous on the daily charts so we’ll step aside until the picture becomes clearer.

Gold prices are effectively moving sideways within a tight range. We had been looking for bears to regain control following a bearish engulfing candle seemingly breaking out of a triangle but, due to a lack of bearish follow-through, we’ll also step aside for now as it direction appears fickle.

Silver provided the move we had hope gold would perform; it went down. Now trading around $25 its downside potential may be limited or staggered due to key swing lows residing at 24.07, 24.35 and 24.70.

A small bullish candle has formed on palladium’s daily chart after a brief retracement against its aggressively bullish breakout. A break above 2657.50 assumes bullish continuation.

=======================

saw the news that giant ship in the Suez canal has been turned , seems the problem has been fixed!! so ...oil might be heading down again?? unsure.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

early birds
Posted on: Mar 25 2021, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Wall Street was lower again overnight despite optimism from Powell and Yellen, alongside stronger PMI data. Oil rebounded on a supply disruption.

Investors rotate into value
Strong performers from last year such as Apple, Microsoft, FaceBook, Tesla and Amazon led the S&P 500 lower and investors rotated into value. At the index level, the S&P 500 fell -0.5% and closed at the session low just above a 38.2% Fibonacci ratio at 3889.10. Support also resides at 3850 with the 50-day eMA and 50% retracement level in close proximity. However, its retracement is not too menacing and appears to be a healthy correction as opposed to a top.

The Russell 2000 was the weakest performer again overnight, falling a further -2.4%. Interestingly, yesterday’s high perfectly respected the 50% Marabuzo line of Tuesday's bearish opening Marabuzo candle. The bias remains bearish with 2100 now in focus for bears.

The Nasdaq 100 fell -1.7% to a 3-day low and is back between its 50 and 100-day eMA. A break beneath 12,700 brings the lows around 12,200 into focus.

The Dow Jones was effectively flat and remains relatively firm relative to it peers, having retraced just -2.6% from its highs. If sentiment is to improve and allows equity strength then the Dow may be the place for bulls to look.

Wall Street lower as we approach quarter end

============================

been for a while -----focus shift to value stocks [ provide high yield]

  Forum: Investment Discussion

early birds
Posted on: Mar 25 2021, 08:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 13,556

Coming into today’s trading session, just 24% of the R2k’s components are trading above their 20 Day MAs, the lowest since early September of last year. That % also is near the very low end of the multi-year range.

The R2k, itself, broke below its 50 Day MA during yesterday’s afternoon sell off, too. The index has seen many of its best rallies start after such an occurrence over the last 12 months.

At the same time, 85% of its holdings still are above their long term 200 Day MAs. Combined, that has created a classic “buy the dip” set up, which traders eagerly have taken advantage of over the last few months.

There remain concerns, of course, namely that the R2k’s RSI negative divergence continues... Right now, the indicator is near 43, which is relatively low, but still supportive a bounce attempt.

The US Dollar has continued through the 92 zone and is close to touching its 200 Day MA for the first time since last May.

The Heng Seng triggered a bearish pattern break with last evening’s large sell off.

==============================

seems they stick to short term down side of Russell 2000 that worked . US market still in gyration mood, as SPX keeps day up and next day down movement. really no clearer direction.

asx200 still out performed other index this week, so keep long bet to our market might work!! imho [ little biased ] tongue.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

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