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APL, ANTIPODES GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMPANY LTD
nipper
post Posted: Sep 2 2020, 04:26 PM
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In Reply To: Oleg's post @ Sep 2 2020, 11:37 AM

I saw the release....
QUOTE
While the Board believes that the listed investment company (LIC) structure has many positive attributes, the persistent discount between the Company's share price and its NTA is unsatisfactory. The Board has actively pursued a range of NTA discount control mechanisms including implementing the largest on-market LIC share buy-back in ASX history. The Board acknowledges that the initiatives to date, while significant and moderately enhancing to shareholder returns, have not had the desired effect of sustainably reducing the NTA discount.

The Board also acknowledges that while NTA discounts are influenced by many factors including market sentiment, Manager performance and the size of the Company, it is incumbent upon them to continue to undertake discount control mechanisms to give shareholders the confidence that the share price will better reflect the NTA of the Company over time.

Conditional Tender Offer .....In a new development for the Australian market, the Board has committed to undertake a significant and innovative discount control mechanism by proposing a conditional tender offer program (CTO) to shareholders at the 2020 Annual General Meeting (AGM) which (subject to the condition being triggered) would be implemented in October 2021 being 5 years after the Company listed. The CTO will enable shareholders to exit a minimum of 25% of their shareholding at close to NTA. The CTO seeks to balance the interests of longterm shareholders with those of exiting shareholders and to result in the Company share price more closely tracking its NTA while preserving the benefits of the LIC structure. The CTO will be triggered if the Company's shares trade at a persistent discount to NTA.
The proposed terms of the CTO are as follows:
The CTO condition is that the Company's closing share price on a daily average basis over the preceding 12-month period to the CTO date exceeds a 7.5% discount to pre tax NTA.
Shareholders will have the opportunity to tender their shares for sale to the Company via an offmarket buyback.
The maximum number of shares the Company can buy back will be 25% of the shares on issue at that time.
Shareholders can tender any number of their shares. Shareholders will be guaranteed that 100% of their tendered shares will be bought back if they tender 25% or less of their total shareholding in the Company.
If some shareholders do not tender any shares or tender less than 25%, the surplus will be allocated pro rata among shareholders who tender more than 25%.
The tender offer price will be NTA less 2% as calculated on or around the closure of the CTO offer period.
The initial CTO offer period will begin soon after the five-year anniversary of the Company's listing date, on or around 18 October 2021.
The Board intention is for the CTO to occur regularly and for the Company to seek shareholder approval for CTOs on similar terms every three years after the initial CTO

....what do I think?
- I bought to hold this one. I like the ability to pay a dividend. I think value investing has had a bad trot for 10 years and will continue to, as the markets rotate towards C21st realities.
- I am not sure it will solve their problems of deeply discounted trading price to NTA
- there is a logical challenge if a holding is sold down. The 25% reduction becomes smaller and you could be left with an unmarketable parcel.- I wonder if other LICs in the same boat will try this?




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Oleg
post Posted: Sep 2 2020, 11:37 AM
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Nipper. What are your thoughts on the tender offer? Doesnt really impact us as the price we paid was higher than NTA but picking up some now seems like a win win.

 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 09:05 PM
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In Reply To: Oleg's post @ Aug 14 2020, 06:18 PM

There is an interesting article, see link, that might add to the story. The 50% rise of the US S&P 500 index from its lows in March has been driven by a narrow number of titans. In fact, 5 stocks have increased their market cap by the same amount as the other 495 have lost since the beginning of the year.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/08/13/is-...levant-anymore/
based around the thesis of: Is an Index Relevant Anymore? which comes to the conclusion:
QUOTE
Do not buy the index, buy value for long term investing, and capital preservation. There are cheap stocks in an expensive index. The index at the moment is an irrelevant benchmark in finding value
... but only gets there via a series of charts and graphs (and sometimes, a picture can tell a thousand words graduated.gif ).







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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Oleg
post Posted: Aug 14 2020, 06:18 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 13 2020, 07:45 PM

My wife also received this we hold Antipodes and Magellan global Jaycobs views make a lot of sense and I think well be looking for some more value in coming months. The growth stocks are in a total bubble territory.

 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 13 2020, 07:45 PM
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Kerr Neilsen's offsider, out on his own:

In todays Australian Financial Review, you can read an article I penned on the perils of buying stocks at the wrong price. Drawing on my experience from the dot-com bubble, I point out that even great businesses can lead investors into an unexpected period of growth purgatory if bought at excessive multiples.

I wanted to draw your attention to this article because I believe my reflections are particularly pertinent today as capital continues pouring into growth at any price. I fear this will end badly. This is why we believe it is now more important than ever for investors to maintain a value-style exposure in their portfolios.

AFR subscribers can read the article here. Or continue reading below.


Is the herd being led into growth purgatory?
QUOTE
We have seen it before ... growth purgatory. It is a place, not for investors who back great, growing businesses, but a place for investors who buy those businesses at the wrong price. It might surprise readers that a quality company like Microsoft condemned a herd of investors to growth purgatory for almost two decades.

During the dotcom bubble, Microsoft was trading at a peak earnings multiple of around 85x. It was then, and still is now, a fantastic business but 85x earnings was not the right price to pay.

Investors who poured into Microsoft at those sky-high multiples (among other tech bubble high flyers) spent more than a decade in the red and by 2011 it had derated to a PE of less than 10x!

The most important point for investors to remember today is the fact this was not a result of poor operating performance. Through that period of growth purgatory, Microsofts earnings continued to grow. The market, however, derated the business and investors who paid the wrong price for a great business were caught out.

So, could todays markets be leading investors into another period of painful growth purgatory?

Historically, it would appear so. Year to date, two thirds of the move in the S&P500 can be explained by just five stocks: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft. Market leadership has never been this narrow in the US. Market cap concentration is at a 30 year extreme, as is breadth ... currently only 20% of stocks are outperforming the index. These extremes have signalled a turning point in the past.

Reversals of market extremes, where less popular, lower multiple stocks begin to outperform the current winners, typically coincide with a cyclical economic rebound, combined with some larger shift in the underlying investment cycle such as when the commodities super-cycle replaced the dot-com bubble.

New European Green Deal anyone?

Whilst we have seen some periodic upswings since the 2008 financial crisis, economically cyclical stocks have underperformed right up to the extreme industrial production collapse that occurred during the COVID19 outbreak. Cyclicals are now more than two standard deviations cheap versus the defensive and growth parts of the market.

But we are now, for the first time in a decade, witnessing a wave of large scale fiscal and monetary stimulus across the world in response to the COVID 19 pandemic. The initial response in 2008 was large fiscal and monetary expansion, but this turned to fiscal austerity in 2010. Central banks were left to stimulate growth in the decade following, but monetary policy alone was not enough to trigger a broader investment cycle. The liquidity response today is better balanced between the real and financial economies and therefore is more likely to be followed by a cyclical economic rebound.

However, risks such as the uncertain impacts of the virus, a rise in populism, socialist policies, burgeoning fiscal deficits, and the weak quality of corporate debt are all related risks and are risks to equities as an asset class more broadly. That is, they can impact both higher multiple growth and lower multiple stocks. Providing these risks do not derail the cyclical rebound in activity, and there is evidence of stabilisation in activity, a rotation into lower-multiple (or value) stocks can emerge.

In these uncertain times, what I think is clear is there are just as many growth traps in todays market as there are value traps.

Investors seeking a smoother journey to achieving their long-term goals may be best served by simply asking; am I paying the right price for this great business? As we saw with Microsoft at the turn of the century, the allure of explosive shortterm gains can lead to longterm purgatorial pain.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: henrietta  
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 13 2019, 02:25 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 11 2019, 11:57 AM

Seems to kicked it up a gear; some 850k shares traded today, and the gap closing somewhat. Now $1.04, with last EoM NTA at $1.15
QUOTE
..as part of a decision to implement a more significant, long-term commitment to use the Company’s substantial capital resources to seek to ensure the Company’s share price trades close to its NTA:
• it will seek shareholder authority to buy back up to 20% of the Company’s shares on market in the 12 month period the buyback authority relates to;
• the Board will seek this authority at the 2020 AGM at the latest, but may approach shareholders earlier, depending upon how quickly the current 10% buy back authority is exhausted.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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nipper
post Posted: Dec 11 2019, 11:57 AM
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QUOTE
APL has implemented the following short term initiatives also aimed at narrowing the discount to NTA:

Capital management: more than doubled the daily volume of the on-market share buyback since 11th November 2019.

Transparency: moved from weekly NTA to daily NTA on 15th November 2019.

Communication: the Company embarked on a phone-based outreach campaign to the largest individual shareholders starting in November 2019 and continues to improve upon its regular updates to shareholders.

The Board is committed to narrowing the discount to NTA and will continue to assess, on an ongoing basis, the initiatives considered during its recent review process.
...like a lot of LICs, trading lower



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 10 2019, 11:12 AM
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previous ticker holder was a gold stock .. clearly went broke a while ago. Code reassigned:
QUOTE
Antipodes Global Investment Company Limited (APL) offers investors access to a long-short global securities investment portfolio with a currency overlay. Antipodes Partners Limited (the Manager) as the investment manager of the Company's portfolio.

- this is the LIC offshoot of a managed fund, set up by a couple of ex-Platinum guys, a few years ago. Not doing that well, in that it is bouncing along the bottom, producing monthly and annual numbers that have underperformed the relevant Portfolio Benchmark (MSCI All-Country) for quite a while.
QUOTE
Manager’s investment strategy is to invest in a select number of companies listed on global share markets that the Manager considers to be attractively valued and which represent clusters of uncorrelated sources of return. The portfolio typically has net equity exposure of 50% to 100% of the portfolio’s net asset value with a maximum allowable gross exposure limit of 150% of the portfolio’s net asset value.

The Company may also be invested in currencies, derivatives and other financial instruments (including cash) to achieve the investment objective and to reduce risk or manage the portfolio more efficiently.

Long positions focus on holdings with an attractive starting valuation (“margin of safety”) combined with sustainable business resilience borne out of any combination of competitive dynamics, product cycle, regulatory, management/financial or macro/style factors (“multiple ways of winning”). The opposite logic is applied for short positions.

- has embarked in a (daily) share buyback to try to rein in the "discount-to-NTA" dilemma. < currently ~ 95c while NTA is $1.13>
- meantime, pays a relatively robust fully franked dividend.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
puppeteer
post Posted: Nov 16 2004, 08:00 AM
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Down to 23c now, even better opportunity biggrin.gif

 
sabretoothed
post Posted: Oct 20 2004, 11:34 AM
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24c just taken, some up?
Big buying hit..





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I confirm that am not a licensed investment adviser , or have any formal training, to give investment advice. Therefore you must seek professional advice. I may hold this stock. Jesse Livermore is my Hero. Australia is the next Iceland!
 
 


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