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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 07:55 AM
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SPX did holding on 3850ish as Daq went into all time high [ pumped up by apple]
so market still bullish after US new administration got into white house uneventfully .
keep eye on 3888ish for short term, longer term [few months time] 3950ish......imho

asx200, as upside space has been opened up yesterday , expecting it will going up [ not sure it is grinding up or jump up] for a while. unless it dip back below the breakout point [6775ish]



 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 21 2021, 09:19 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 21 2021, 07:47 AM

can't keep a good market down. ASX200 putting in another solid day.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 21 2021, 07:47 AM
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The Bottom Line:
1
Earnings season is just beginning, as is a new administration, thus, fresh rhetoric and data points will be upon us soon enough. This being case, the odds suggest that volatility could turn perky again relatively soon.


2
Thus, if and when the SPX shakes loose from its two-month, tight, upward trading channel, its worth reviewing the biggest of the bullish patterns weve been tracking.


3
The SPXs 4,270 price target was derived from the breakout way back in July, as the index punched through 3,230. With the SPX now sitting 15% above that point, the big cushion allows for a good deal of wiggle room. The key will be how the index deals with the next gut check whenever and wherever that occurs.


4
The NDX continues to extend from its own late November breakout point. And while the index has underperformed the high-flying small caps, its pattern certainly cant be labeled as bearish. The NDX/IWM ratio is nearing a weekly oversold condition for the first time since late 2016.


5
The Semis SMH ETF outperformance vs. the XLK has been clear for some time now, as well. As such, the weekly relative RSI is near 79, which is among the highest in history.

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SPX future hit 3850 [ short term upside target] as i'm typing , , now this study shows 4270 as the big target for the upside. but it is weekly chart, i'm not show it can reach it at 2021.
everything is possible esp for the upside these days!! blink.gif

asx200.................. as TA point out if it over come 6775 then it will open up big space of upside. from asx200 future ...seems it did just that [asx200 future is at 6815ish as i'm typing]




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early birds
post Posted: Jan 20 2021, 08:23 AM
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With the SPX still close to its highs, last weeks price action hardly was damaging. All it did was put the index back near the middle of its two-month upward sloping trading channel.

The SPXs Breadth only was slightly negative last week, which allowed the SPXs Cumulative Adv-Dec Line to stay close to its highs. While countless other indicators suggest the market is overheated, the A-D line has been the most trustworthy of which to follow since last spring.
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SPX closed up last session , looks it gonna try that 3850 again . sorta think it will roll over at 3800-------it might turn out to be "wishful thinking" like i did many times before!! weirdsmiley.gif


for asx200 it showing supper bullish sign , if it can over come 6775 within two session then it open big upside space . shorts beware that level!!
i'm still long those defensive high yields names.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 19 2021, 07:57 AM
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Well, looks like the tops in.
Dow bin struggling to make headway for aw hile now, dropped a bit last night.
The next big move is down.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Jan 15 2021, 08:10 AM
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Warning signs do persist:

One that's been with us for a while is the historically low equity put-call ratio. Many have pointed this out; let's be honest, it's hard to miss. Even smoothing it out via a short-term moving average can't hide how depressed the read on options activity has been since last June.

It made a new low in December, but that has yet to matter. In fact, the bounce from that point created a lower high. This, too, won't last... but that has been true seven for months now, and it has yet to change.

While we rely on the SPX's Cumulative-Advance Line for a tell on Breadth, we should keep tabs on the number of stocks making new 52 Week Highs, as well. Not surprisingly, the number has been moving higher as the SPX has gained ground.

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as bullish as SPX goes, bit of cautious here. if 3850 been hit and SPX still point to the upside, then next upside target will be at 3890ish, that is far i can see.

asx200 will follow US market higher at this stage!! target upside would be at 6850ish...imho think of banks [or those of high yields ] will do better in short term!!



 


early birds
post Posted: Jan 13 2021, 08:28 AM
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The 10 Year Yield is s/t extended. Its six day rate of change now is +28%, which lines up with the best six day runs since late April. They all faded. The Yield's RSI is up to 78 as of this morning, too. That's the HIGHEST since November, 2016 (as yields were ripping post the 2016 Presidential Election).

2
For the 10 Year Note, a Demark TD Combo Buy Signal has been triggered for the first time since April, 2018.

3
The TLT Bond ETF endured its sixth straight decline on Monday. It logged six consecutive losses twice in 2020: Its last 7 day losing streak happened in the period ending 4/26/16.

4
The TLTs 14 Day RSI is near 27 now, as well, which obviously makes it oversold thats the lowest reading since 10/08/18.

5
While we're not expecting a major turning point in Bonds, the odds suggest the pace needs to slow over the near term. Once it does, we'll get a better idea of how willing traders are to return to the prevailing trend.

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all about 10 years yields ?? looks" risk on" again to me.
i know i0 years note is at oversold level, but i think pull back will be little if any. i for one won't go long for the medium term. only for the short term trading i guess!!

SPX ----think of 3850 in near term.

asx200, ---seems banks going for another leg of run up as aussie economy performed far better than feared !!

long banks / short big miners??? unsure.gif


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early birds
post Posted: Jan 10 2021, 08:35 AM
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Regarding the SPX, the 3,850 target is getting closer.
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i got out 3750 end of last year!!

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Japan
The Nikkei continues to garner demand. While extended short-term, the long term breakout shows what's really happening.
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keep eye on that market, looks bullish breakout will sustained !!

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asx200 refused to go down, so got to think of upside. if one long some stocks, keep it for a while i guess!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 7 2021, 07:54 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20210106-p56s6w

despite chaotic at white house SPX still be able to holds chunk of gain, so freaking amazing !!
this market is just so bullish , seems nothing can stop it.
expecting asx200 to follow wall street. swing trade for today, i won't commit longer term today, it's just too risk for me!! weirdsmiley.gif

keep eye on asx200 , think that 6725 might be as high as it can go [ personally i reckon it will peaked under 6710], down side [ roughly at 6650ish]



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 6 2021, 08:20 AM
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/virus-...20210105-p56rzd
cool.gif

range for SPX [swing, 3657-----3756] as some TA studies. would be news driven today [tonight] as volume still thin.

for asx200, seems bullish than others, but as aud rallied last's session, that might put little pressure on the large stocks that affect index.
keep eye on 6675, then 6700 for the upside, and stops at 6625 for the longs for intra--day traders, imho



 
 


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