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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 18 2021, 06:28 PM
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Oh the day before picture


Its nuts ... no masks other than bar staff.
Immunity via stupidty

 




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 18 2021, 06:27 PM
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Hi Mags,

Unknown .... all of it.Speculation on my part.

I do of course hope for the best, but Biden is inheriting a mess. That he says 100 million injections in 100 days is a wish I hope they achieve.
That said, two injections needed per person for the vaccine, a mere 50 million say by end of April full vaccinated.

I do hope the effort doubles .... by then and 200 million shots end of July added to this and another 100 million added. So they will be close.
I wish ... I had some confidence in this since the stupidity displayed of late in the USA has no bounds.

Photo I have attached is Hogs Breath in Florida as of 16th January 2021.

It was more crowded the night before .... and the night after.
Florida is reporting basically all the infections Australia had EVERY 2 days.

Florida openly had deliberately under reported both infections and deaths. Look at all those masks !! NONE .... or around chin

Photo taken from live web camera ....https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/florida.html

What Florida is ... is about average for the USA .... Tennessee and Nashville vi same camera on a Saturday night NOW is insane. It's about 150% worse than Florida. No masks, no social distancing other than, well ... Neo liberal stupidity.


I can make one prediction sadly for 2021 and the govt preferred site that gates funds, and its 567,000 Covid Deaths by April 1st 2021 for the USA will sadly pass 800,000 during 2021 and unlikely not to hit 1 million in 2021.

Biden may of course mandate compulsory mask wearing, but its likely to be ignored as you can see in the picture.

Vaccine wise, I suspect its only going to give about 8 months immunity, this from a lot of scientific papers. The vaccine if you have it likely will require booster shots, one ... maybe 2 every year.

USA is so fractured right now this link to the recent riots is worth your time watching. No commentary, just a reporter following with camera and this is just the tip of the iceberg in the USA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=270F8s5TEKY

Yep its 12 minutes long. I suspect with cause that any vaccination effort is tied up with acceptance by the greater community in any society. USA sadly has so many factions of people one can see from the video that ... at best one can dream the vaccine is taken up by 80%, likely 50% and I hope and pray they sort out the issues which has seen a mere 13 million shots in the first Month. Only 1.97 million so far having got the two shots .... included in that 13 million total.

To get to say 200 million people for 2 shots at even 50 million shots a month .... so 400 million will take time. Then repeat over and over until the virus is gone which seems sadly again unlikely with what one must expect an uptake of say 60% in the USA leaving the virus to fester and fester as it does.
Best wishes to all for 2021.

Sobering that its unlikely for the USA to stop till 800,000 dead likely a million. Absurd as it sounds, infected went from 200,000 a week in the USA to 1.8 million and its NOT going down. Look at the picture and wonder if they are out of their scones.

Mark
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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 15 2021, 05:11 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Jan 14 2021, 09:27 PM

Yep,
Been around a long time and right now, the sector rotation in Australia is insane. Things go from a prudent value, to what is an I wish value in weeks.That of course is companies that make money.

Not a fan of the banks up here. Market seems to think that they go back to the old dividends and possibly buybacks in 2022. Not so sure this is correct.Flip-side is say Utilities whilst boring, they get smashed in favor of Banks and in favor of techs and so on.

Darling used to be the WOW and COL which I admit went way beyond my wildest dreams. I liked COL on the split below $12- at $16- it was getting expensive and now at $19= sort of insane.

Certainly some ... my love hate affair with FMG hating it pre GFC at $10- loving it at $2- and even sub $4- not so long ago, ts been a perfect ride for them.
Still cant work out if an at best 80% of say old banks dividends since they need to retain MORE for capital and growth and were paying out far too much in the past if say $1.50 dividend on a bank .... say at 6% with some risk in there .... so I suppose a $25- handle for the likes of ANZ and NAB is possible all be it fully priced.

Not sure we have finished with COVID longer term and the new strains likely to me to wreaking some serious havoc into 2021.

Liked the J+J vaccine news all be it not much detail and more on the Oxford vaccine which protected at 100% against severe COVID in the latest release of studies and .... much like Moderna and Pfizer CLAIMS .... a vaccine with a lot less side effect and old and tried and tested vector seems good to me. That both USA companies used pseudo science to come up with their over 90% numbers is pure political BS and the norm for the world in 2020/21.

Should be interesting times ahead and Biden if he actually taxes USA companies and removes the tax cuts for the rich .... and makes social security tax go to all income instead of stopping at $140k, well there will be squeals that should be heard even here.

Nothing to do with our market of course, the absurdity and obscenity the USA tax system has become has taken decades to produce.

Biden I think said he proposes to raise the USA minimum wage to $15- ..... which is a good thing overall. Such a mess USA is in 2021 I will only believe it when its passed and law, which sadly I suspect is unlikely given the state of their kleptocracy.

Only a few more sleeps and no more watching the news with dread every morning for the latest idiotic action. Safely can totally ignore the USA for the next 20 years as it goes much the way of the UK post 1918 into the irrelevant basket.

Have fun



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
plastic
post Posted: Jan 15 2021, 05:10 PM
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The velocity of money as a multiplier for fintech as blockchain comes into effect. HUGE.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 15 2021, 05:00 PM
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The injection of cash into the US economy shows no abatement.
Biden's proposed 1.9 TRILLION package brings the total amount of cash support to over 5.2TRILLION.
Moody's rating agency , the same one that downgraded Victoria's credit rating to AA- a few months ago, sees this latest splurge as a good thing.
From sharescene's own research pages HERE


QUOTE
Credit rating group, Moody’s has given an upbeat and thumbs up approval for the Biden package.

In analysis released before the speech was delivered – but obviously based on an extensive briefing, Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi reckoned it will boost US growth this year to 5% or better, and the same in 2022.

“This (the Biden package) would bring total support since the pandemic hit to $US5.2 trillion, equal to an astounding 25% of GDP—approximately three times the fiscal support during the financial crisis, and substantially more than provided by any other country in the world. (Japan is second and Australia is third in the ranking of size of stimulus to GDP)

“With this additional boost, real GDP should be robust at just over 5% this year and the same next, bringing the economy back to full employment by early 2023.”

He sees economic growth in the current first quarter of 2021 at 4%, rising to more than 5% for the year by year’s end.

“That is nearly a full year sooner than we had anticipated when assuming the Republicans would maintain control of the Senate and stymie the Biden administration’s efforts for additional fiscal support,” Zandi wrote on Thursday.

He also forecast that the US would return to full employment by the end of 2022 early 2023.

“With the economy projected to achieve full employment by early 2023, we expect the Fed to begin normalizing short-term rates by fall 2023. By then, inflation should be firmly above the Fed’s 2% target and inflation expectations even higher.

“It will take approximately three years for the Fed to increase the federal funds rate target to its 2.5% long-run equilibrium rate.”

“Long-term rates will rise sooner as the Fed tapers its quantitative easing by early 2022, and bond investors anticipate a full-employment economy with higher inflation.


To paraphrase someone else, theres some heroic assumptions in that analysis.
The chances of the US returning to full employment by end of 2022, early 2023 seem more than a little optimistic.
With the latest BLS data showing 6.7%, and new jobless claims have been stuck above 700,000 for the past three months.
This compares with around 225,000 average before the virus hit.
The real unemployment rate according to shadow stats is closer to 7.3%.
the Fed in their annual report HERE has unemployment rates coming down to 5.0% in 2021. I guess if everyone got a lucrative position at the FED it might work.
But the biggest problem is that people in Government assume that once the virus is brought back to a level where no state has any restrictions, all will be well again and all those businesses will just up again.
Sorry guys, the playing field turned into a mine field.
Nobody knows how many of the closed small and medium businesses will open again,
And if people can get welfare instead of having to work, guess what will happen?
You only have to look at the huge amount of fresh produce that is not being harvested here in OZ to see the inevitable result.

Mick



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Mags
post Posted: Jan 14 2021, 09:27 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jan 12 2021, 07:34 PM

QUOTE
Meanwhile market loves everything other than companies that makes money.


Had to read that twice to make sure we're on the same page....
And yes we are.
These multiples being thrown around are insane. I own a nice, profitable, small business. Hard work, stressful, taxed to an inch of it's life: But I make a good living, with great cashflow, multiple years profit in the bank should the worst happen.... and it's worth??? Stuff all. Be lucky to get 3 years net profit, plus plant and equipment: Very lucky.
Yet businesses that are only one regulation from being shut down (eg after pay), or a david in a goliaths world (eg. tesla) are being pumped... and pumped... and pumped...
The one thing I've come to learn, is that it takes the market (ie people) far longer to accept the truth when they need to calculate it themselves... or what I'm saying is, this insanity is likely to go on for years... sickening.
I just feather my nest: At the end of the day, Ferrari's and Porsche's would be nice: But I only need enough to make a comfortable living, regardless of what happens: And in 5 or so years, anything might: but until then, I'll keep saving and investing in real stuff: The stuff people 'smarter' than me are turning their noses up at.



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kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 12 2021, 07:34 PM
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Yep ...
Personally waiting for the Oxford vaccine.

I note the EU just changed yet again its use of Remdesivir the Gillead drug. Veklury is what its called now.

An aside, Gillead announced overnight its results. USA about half of Covid patients get given this ... stuff. When you have 2.75 million infected a week and say 100,000 cycling in and out of hospital every few weeks with 135k in there, I suppose Gilleads results were no surprise. Increased sales.


A drug which has a massive question mark over it and EU ... well its rules for any use of it is onerous ... costs $115 USD per dose to make sells for $2,500 or so and well all research and studies paid for by govt is what it is.

Gilead is the one which sells the Prep AIDS drug in the USA for $12,000 a months which sells here for $100- ...


again it is what it is. Patent has elapsed on it in every country except the USA.

I note 2.75 million infected in the USA last 7 days and 23,000 deaths.

Not much if any media coverage.

Worst of the worst already mentioned Tennessee in the USA with 6.9 million population is about to hit 10% infected and still ... bars open ... and debating over masks.

Meanwhile market loves everything other than companies that makes money.

Well known Q an Non person who was the riches man for a day .... Elon Musk saw his shares fall ... they were only priced at 95 times 2021-22 sales.Its reasonable ?

Now they are merely priced at 89 times expected sales. Not profit, SALES.

Been there before and time and time again over the years.

Stay safe



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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rog
post Posted: Jan 12 2021, 03:44 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jan 10 2021, 09:59 PM

I read the BJA article and was assured, not alarmed.





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kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 10 2021, 09:59 PM
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CDC ... study ...

I note a few things.There were over 20 extreme reactions inside the first 10 days in the USA .... extreme as in life threatening.Whilst not an anti vax person at all, CDC and USA FDA both have failed in massive dangerous fashion of late. FDA approved the malaria drug only to have it pulled for emergency use. Approved Gilliad Remdesivir to treat the virus and even gave it full approval. EU on the other hand banned the very same drug.
Reality is that few doctors use this drug now ... either USA or EU .... it had and has issues with kidneys and livers and WHO study with 17,000 people found it had NO effect .... none zero and so too 2 other studies the FDA and CDC ignored.

Anyhow CDC study ... which is ...

https://news.yahoo.com/1-100-000-had-severe-193625427.html

Total BS ... even the wording is deliberate deceptive. In a clinical trail and vaccine trial a need to have an eppy shot ... a life threatening reaction called and EXTREME reaction. Not a severe one ... which is much milder and not needing a visit to the hospital. Thankfully due to the vaccine needing special treatment and now shots are given under doctors supervision to see if their is an allergic reaction.

the full data for Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, clinical trials, had ZERO .... no extreme reactions. NONE.. .... and they had 20 in the first 150k ? Seriously !!
Do you think it needs MORE testing ? Of course the need is immediate and well, corners cut .... along with the pile of money for both of them.

This to one side ...
another factual article and well here it is ...

https://bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-091...1009-6/fulltext

Also read the full studies of both vaccines and was personally appalled.

CDC I suppose saying its 10 times more reactions than a the flu shot sounds ok. Sadly they used the reactions seen the first week of vaccinations so about 150,000- .... then used the total people given a shot as of week 4 .... so over 2 million which is ... what it is.
Understating the issue and reactions by a factor of 10 .... in plain sight !!

I suppose reactions are yes rare, even despite this clear and obvious tapering with data and pseudo science by the USA again.
Sadly some of the reactions seen are longer lasting such as bells paulsey which in some had not resolved by the end of the clinical trials along with immediate rheumatoid arthritis.

I did and do note the whitewash by even normally decent scientific magazines. One article in Stat magazine actually suggested that the reactions were coincidental.

Yes of course over a vast population people will have every sort of normal reaction over time however .... a person given the vaccine immediate developing a rash, difficulty breathing or blowing up like a puffer fish is what they were trying to actually dismiss.

Total crap .... of course a fine line between anti vaccine nutjobs and getting people vaccinated.

For myself will await a more tradition vaccine, not the RNA ones ... not ones with PEG or other fillers. Oxford one looks good as do 2 others likely approved in coming months.

Need for this in Australia given actual contact tracing, compliance on the main with masks and ... lack of stupidity being tolerated ... seems no immediate rush.

UK ... USA and a lot of others in serious trouble. The need outweighs the risks and caution I have raised along with others.
If say 50 people actually died via the vaccine the USA right now at 370k deaths, likely real number 500 k ... that to one side, the official estimate now for 1st April 2021 which I have whinged about for many months as being a joke and too low, is NOW .... closer to my own at 567,000- dead.
That's another 200,000 deaths in 10 weeks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-state...s&tab=trend

So cost or risks even as I have raised an at worst number .... is tiny compared to benefits.

Of course, USA as just displayed has virtually zero chance of vaccination being taken up willingly by 80% or more people. Sadly this will be with us for some time the covid19 until either its captured and squashed, via lock-downs or masks and or vaccines being taken up so transmission is well under 1.

Time will tell.



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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nipper
post Posted: Jan 9 2021, 06:35 PM
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Jeremy Grantham has come out with a cogently argued Top of the Cycle, repositioning is King argument. But when? (maybe April to June ish)

https://www.gmo.com/australia/research-libr...the-last-dance/

QUOTE
The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.

These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost .... and where investors truly prove their mettle. For positioning a portfolio to avoid the worst pain of a major bubble breaking is likely the most difficult part. Every career incentive in the industry and every fault of individual human psychology will work toward sucking investors in.

But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios. Make no mistake – for the majority of investors today, this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives. Speaking as an old student and historian of markets, it is intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time. It is a privilege to ride through a market like this one more time.

not sure his conclusions work for me, but then I am not a multi billion fund manager
QUOTE
As often happens at bubbly peaks like 1929, 2000, and the Nifty Fifty of 1972 (a second-tier bubble in the company of champions), today's market features extreme disparities in value by asset class, sector, and company. Those at the very cheap end include traditional value stocks all over the world, relative to growth stocks. Value stocks have had their worst-ever relative decade ending December 2019, followed by the worst-ever year in 2020, with spreads between Growth and Value performance averaging between 20 and 30 percentage points for the single year! Similarly, Emerging Market equities are at 1 of their 3, more or less co-equal, relative lows against the U.S. of the last 50 years. Not surprisingly, we believe it is in the overlap of these two ideas, Value and Emerging, that your relative bets should go, along with the greatest avoidance of U.S. Growth stocks that your career and business risk will allow. Good luck!




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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