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TESLA, The Ambitions of Musk
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 17 2021, 09:45 AM
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From Elektrek

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Electrek has learned from sources familiar with the matter that Tesla has instructed employees to sell all Model S and Model X inventory in stores across all markets.

Tesla aims to have absolutely no Model S or Model X in inventory by the end of the month.

It should be achievable since Tesla hasn’t produced new Model S and Model X vehicles in almost a month due to a production shutdown of the lines for its flagship electric sedan and SUV.

The move is unusual at the beginning of a new quarter and it intensifies rumors of a design refresh.Over the last few months, we have been extensively reporting on rumors of a possible Model S and Model X design refresh have been increasing lately — especially since Tesla announced that the Model S Plaid is going to require several important changes.

In December, we also reported on Tesla significantly increasing the delivery timeline and price of Model S and Model X going to Europe in March.

Furthermore, we learned that Tesla has extended the Model S/X production holiday shutdown through early January, leading some to believe that the automaker is updating the production line to produce a new version of the electric sedan.

As we previously reported, Tesla has a ‘secret project Palladium’, which included working on new production lines for Model S and Model X last year.

Back in 2018, we reported on Tesla working on a significant interior design refresh for Model S and Model X that was at the time planned for the summer of 2019.

It is worth noting that Elektrec is a generally pro tesla blog.
There may be other reasons for the above, namely that the NHTSA had asked Tesla to recall about 158,000 Model S and Model X units that could potentially suffer from failing display consoles. Tesla has already resisted the recall request, suggesting it was an over reaction. It would seem that perhaps dumping all of the Model S and X unsold vehicles is another way to wipe their hands of the problem.
It should also be noted that like then reported " Tesla working on a significant interior design refresh for Model S and Model X that was at the time planned for the summer of 2019" being already nearly two years late, the electric semi (truck) and the roadster that were promised just prior to that announcement is over two years late. Its all vapourware.

Mick




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nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2021, 09:37 AM
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Last week, on Friday, Tesla had $62 billion of trading volume in one day. This was the second highest day for any individual stock in history, only behind the day of the index inclusion. Those were not all retail investors.

Fund managers, Index funds now it is in the 500, index huggers. they are all forced to own the stock or risk underperforming the index. FOMO



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 28 2020, 08:35 PM
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there is always a contrarian view



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Pending its inclusion in the S&P 500 index (which nearly doubled its already Brobdingnagian market cap), TSLA sold another $US5 billion of stock in December through at-the-market sales rather than via an underwriting, allowing it to put the Robinhood crowd out of its misery, Lewis wrote.

What is interesting about this, other than that it avoids SEC scrutiny of an offering document, is that the company could easily sell 10 times that much stock in this manner over the course of a month without significantly hurting its stock price in today's bubble environment.

And that is precisely what it should be doing. Whatever its market cap, TSLA will struggle to compete with the manufacturing and engineering capabilities of GM, Volkswagen, Volvo and other much larger automakers unless it adds significantly to its own manufacturing capacity over the next three to five years.

If it is not turning out at least 2 million vehicles annually by 2025 (still rendering it a relatively minor player globally), which is going to be a stretch with its current manufacturing facilities, it will risk being left in the dust by the rest of the industry.

There is a big difference between being a sharemarket darling and an effective competitor in the industry. A grossly inflated market cap supported by central banks and market structure rather than underlying profitability is not going to sustain the business over the long term.


Lewitt believes the US stock market is in a bubble and that there are forces at work which point to the need for investors to be cautious.

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The foundations of our economy and markets grow increasingly fragile as policymakers treat the symptoms but not the underlying disease eating away at not just the American but the global economy.

The symptoms are low productivity, massive overcapacity, massive speculation, and widening wealth inequality, and the disease is runaway debt caused by misguided fiscal (including tax, especially tax) and monetary policies promulgated by intellectually and morally corrupt ruling classes.

Waiting for this regime to change is not a promising investment strategy, but riding it to the end is even more dangerous.

Investors need to avoid the most egregiously priced securities (which includes not only the nutty technology stocks but all fixed-income securities) and focus on capital preservation rather than chasing returns that are not generated by economic growth but instead by central bank money printing and momentum driven market structures.

And, as always, they need to own gold in order to save themselves .
... Michael E Lewitt, editor of the Credit Strategist:


AHEM (or Amen)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: rlane  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Dec 15 2020, 10:45 AM
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As H said
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I do give the man credit as one hell of a salesman.


After having given California the Bird and shifting to Texas with a few of his contemporaries (see Musk joins the Exodus to Texas ), he is now asking his workers to volunteer to work rather than be paid.
From CNBC

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Tesla will shut down production lines for its high-end, but older, electric vehicles -- the Model S sedan and Model X SUV -- for 18 days beginning on December 24th, according to an email to factory employees seen by CNBC.
In the period ending September 30, 2020, Tesla reported that about 11% of its vehicle deliveries were Model S and X cars, and the rest were Model 3 and Model Y.
Employees working on the lines were told they were being given a full week of pay for the forced time off, but were encouraged to seek shifts working for, or even volunteering in, other parts of the business for the remaining unpaid days.Tesla informed employees in its Fremont, California, factory on Friday that its Model S and Model X electric vehicle production lines will close from December 24th to January 11th, according to an email seen by CNBC.

Employees working on those lines were offered a full week of pay to cover one of the two and a half weeks of the shutdown, along with a few paid holidays. They were asked to take 5 unplanned and unpaid days off, but have the option to try to find work in other areas of the factory during those days.

They were also encouraged to “volunteer” to help make electric vehicle deliveries to customers during the shut down.


Don't know why more companies don't ask their employees to Volunteer to work without pay, gotta be a winner!

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
henrietta
post Posted: Dec 10 2020, 04:32 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 10 2020, 02:54 PM

Gotta be a pretty expensive boom, even if it's OPM, as it usually is with Elon. I do give the man credit as one hell of a salesman.

Cheers
J



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"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 10 2020, 02:54 PM
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Elon Musk has launched the latest prototype of his Starship vehicle from Texas. Codenamed SN8, the uncrewed rocket lifted away from the Boca Chica R&D facility on what had been billed as a brief flight to 12.5km. SN8 was the first to attempt a high altitude suborbital flight.

The plan had been to test out some manoeuvres that mimicked a belly facing re entry to Earth's atmosphere, ending up with a flip back to the vertical just before touchdown.

Most of this was achieved: a clean launch off the pad, a steady climb to altitude, followed by a horizontal descent. But it was when the Starship tried to flip back to the vertical that things started to go wrong.

The vehicle came into its landing pad with too much speed, and promptly exploded on impact. Fuel header tank pressure was low during landing burn, causing touchdown velocity to be high & RUD, Mr Musk explained on Twitter.

[RUD stands for rapid unscheduled disassembly; we know this as a crash]



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


early birds
post Posted: Nov 21 2020, 05:50 PM
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DJ Tesla Stock Will See Demand From More Than Just Index Funds. Here Are the Stocks That Might Suffer. -- Barrons.com
Friday, November 20, 2020 06:39:24 PM (GMT)



By Al Root

Goldman Sachs says some mutual funds will have to add Tesla stock to keep up with benchmark returns, now that the electric-vehicle pioneer will join the S&P 500 index. That's more demand for Tesla shares above and beyond what S&P 500 index funds have to buy. And, as is the case with any stock portfolios with relatively fixed assets, funds buying Tesla shares have to sell something to make room.

The indexers, of course, are adding Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) to portfolios because Tesla is going into the S&P 500 on Dec. 21. That decision came down on Monday.

The news has sparked a bit of a buying frenzy of Tesla stock this week. Traders have snatched up shares in advance of index purchases, hoping to unload them at a higher price as Dec. 21 approaches. Tesla stock is up about 20% for the week and hit a new 52-week high of about $508 a share on Thursday.

The Goldman Sachs (GS) portfolio strategy research team pointed out in a Friday report that of the 189 mutual funds tracked that invest in large-capitalization stocks, 157 of them didn't hold Tesla shares at the start of the fourth quarter.

That's quite a revelation: Tesla is a very large-capitalization stock and not easy to miss. It's the world's most valuable auto maker and will likely enter the S&P 500 as one of the top 10 stocks, measured by market value.

One reason some funds don't hold stock in the EV behemoth is that Tesla stock's performance -- without being a part of the S&P indexes -- doesn't affect the benchmarks those funds use. There is less pressure to own a highflying, highly valued stock if it doesn't affect a fund's performance versus its competition daily.

Keeping up with a benchmark is a daily grind for active mutual-fund managers, so managing stock positions that aren't in a benchmark is a headache many appear not to want.

Goldman calculates demand for Tesla stock of about $8 billion if those large-cap mutual funds buy the benchmark weighting of Tesla -- in addition to what index funds will be buying.

Tesla stock routinely trades more than $20 billion in value on a given day, so the $8 billion figure isn't all that large -- especially compared with the tens of billions needing to be purchase by passive index funds. Still, it is more demand for shares that Tesla bulls and aggressive traders will try to capitalize on in coming weeks.

Goldman also listed some of the most over-owned stocks -- relative to benchmark weighting -- held by the same funds. They include: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Citigroup ©, Adobe (ADBE), Medtronic (MDT) AIG (AIG), TE Connectivity (TEL), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Comcast (CMCSA), and Lowe's (LOW). Selling those 10 stocks might be a small source of funds for managers buying Tesla in coming weeks.

Most of the time, any projected impact from index reshuffling would be temporary and largely a nonevent. But as always, Tesla stock tends to be an exception to the rule. Its moves often are larger than most -- which means that any event that affects trading can make the potential amount of money made -- or lost -- very significant.
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nipper
post Posted: Nov 20 2020, 09:43 AM
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From a FT blog:

Morgan Stanley go all in on Tesla: It is expensive on what we know, and cheap on what we do not.


18 Nov 2020 by Jamie Powell


We have joked before on this blog about how the market is rewarding businesses where the pitch seems to be their profitability is as far away as logic can stretch. Don't think about what we are, think about what we might become, and then add 10 years, seems to be the mantra.

Take this one example. Back in early June, we took a look at a Goldman note on Chinese electric car maker Nio, which derived its price target for the business from its forecasted 2030 earnings. Nine whole years away.

Oh, how we laughed at time. After all, it is insanity to think, particularly after this year of all years, that anyone knows what the electric car market will look like in 2025, let alone five years after that.

Of course, the stock is up 732 per cent since. Nice one.

Yet, even though we have got used to EV/ebitda multiples based on 2025 earnings being slapped on upstart companies, we were not quite ready for what landed in our inbox from Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas this morning.

A new note on Tesla, obvs, and, as might be expected, a higher price target: $540 up from $360 .... putting Mr Jonas firmly second among the sellside fraternity.

The valuation is derived from a sum of the parts method ... a well worn practice of valuing different segments of a business to form a total valuation. Of what though? Well . . . we'll just leave you to gawp at this:

Tesla Auto: $254/share. 10 yr DCF derived. We assumes 3.8 million units by 2030 (from ~500k in 2020). Exit ebitda margin of 18.7% (12.2% EBIT). WACC of 8.0%, terminal value ebitda multiple of 13.0x. Valuation implies 24.4x 2022 EV/ebitda or 12.6x 2025 EV/ebitda.

Tesla Energy: $12/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume 607 MW of solar deployed (from 179 MW today) and 11.8 GWh of Storage deployed by 2030 (from 2.1 GWh today). 13% revenue CAGR from 2019 to 2040. Gross margins of 25.0% by 2030. WACC of 9.5%. Terminal Growth Rate (TGR) of 4.0%. Valuation implies 30.5x 2022 EV/ebitda or 19.2x 2025 EV/ebitda.

Tesla Insurance: $15/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume 18% penetration of Tesla Insurance from its vehicles in service with underwriting margins of 14.0% in 2030. WACC of 10.0%. TGR of 3.0%. Valuation implies 28x2025 EV/Sales as the business is still in the early stages of roll out.

Tesla Mobility/Ride sharing: $38/share. 10 yr DCF derived. We assume the 'robotaxi' fleet rises to >500k by 2030 (2.3% of total Tesla car parc) with $1.70/mile and OP margins of 14.7% in 2030 vs 0% in 2025. WACC of 10.0%, TGR of 4.0%. Valuation implies 7.8x 2025 EV/Sales.

Tesla Network Services: $164/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume a 12mm connected fleet by 2030 (60% penetration/attachment rate) with ARPU of $100 by 2030. 60% 2030 ebitda margin. Probability of 80% ascribed (i.e.20% discount to valuation of NPV). WACC of 8.0% (same as core Auto Co despite better financials) and TGR of 4.0%. Valuation implies 36.3x 2025 EV/Sales or 60.5x 2025 EV/ebitda or 0.42x 2025 EV/Sales to growth (0.92x 2022 EV/Sales to growth) in line with the highest growth SaaS firms.

Tesla as a 3rd Party Supplier: $58/share. 20 yr DCF derived. We assume 2.5mm 3rd party EV powertrain shipments at 20% EBIDTA (sic) margins. WACC of 9%. ebitda terminal multiple of 17x. Valuation implies 3.5x 025 EV/Sales


It really has it all doesn't it? But special attention should be drawn to the discounted cash flow analyses on Tesla Network Services, Tesla Mobility and Tesla as a Third Party Suppler ... particularly the latter two, as they literally do not exist at the moment anywhere except in the wild imagination of Tesla bulls.

As one buyside analyst remarked to us on the note, "it's expensive on what we know, and cheap on what we don't. We couldnt have put it better ourselves....

REUTERS




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 19 2020, 08:20 AM
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In Reply To: Danville's post @ Nov 17 2020, 08:38 AM

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3637429-tesla...e=seeking_alpha

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it is about TSLA , but i don't know how to open the link that friend of mine sent to me!! i'm still stupid with computer. sorry!! blush.gif



 
Danville
post Posted: Nov 17 2020, 08:38 AM
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Tesla jumps 9% plus on inclusion to the S&P.
graduated.gif Woo hoo!


Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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