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RARE EARTHS
nipper
post Posted: Jan 17 2021, 05:19 PM
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is something stirring in Rare Earth land?
Of the 13 ASX listed stocks on my watchlist, most are positive and 5 are up by 10%+ for last Friday.

ARR up 23%, REE up 21%, ARU up 15%, NTU and VML up 12% ; with only one Market Sensitive asterix alongside NTU




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  rlane  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 12 2021, 02:07 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 12 2021, 11:04 AM

as posted elsewhere: Quite a few Australian companies claiming to be the Next RE producer, by whichever path. Selected excerpts from most recent Investor Presentations:

HAS: 30/11/20
"Next RE producer (non-China) coming to production by 2023; construction targeted to start Q2 2021."
ARU: 09/12/20
"Only Australian NdPr focused project that is shovel ready. Construction ... 6 mths; Commission & Ramp-up ... 24 months."
VML: 26/11/20
"Operations commencing 2021; Aim for the production of a minimum of 5,000t contained REO by 2025." (Canada)
PM8: 01/10/20
"..bankable feasibility study for Longonjo, alongside a final investment decision the roll out of the mine development plan and main financing of the Project is well on track for the development of the first major rare earth mine in over a decade." (Angola)
ASM: 09/01/21
"Construction of Dubbo Project - mid 2021; Commissioning late 2023."
PEK: 01/12/20
"Solid framework agreement will allow Export Credit Finance to be developed over the coming year, and then construction/start up over next 2 Years."(Tanzania)
REE; 09/12/20
"Strategy is to produce a saleable monazite concentrate to sell on an FOB / CIF basis to China. " ( undefined timeline)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 12 2021, 11:04 AM
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From China Power
QUOTE
As China’s economy has developed over the last several decades, its leaders have sought to transform the country into a key player in strategically important industries. Toward this end, Beijing has established China as the dominant global supplier of rare earths, a collection of 17 minerals that are indispensable to the manufacturing of smartphones, electric vehicles, military weapon systems, and countless other advanced technologies.

Beijing has demonstrated a willingness to leverage its weight in the global rare earth industry in pursuit of its political objectives, raising alarm bells in several major countries. However, China’s influence within the industry is likely to be eroded in the coming years as changing market dynamics empower new actors to compete.
Despite their name, most rare earth elements are relatively abundant. The process of mining rare earths and transforming them into usable materials is, however, expensive and damaging to the environment. For years, Beijing exploited its relatively low-cost labor force and lax environmental laws to gain a competitive edge in the global market and become the leading supplier of rare earths. From 2008 to 2018, China exported nearly 408,000 metric tons of rare earths, which amounted to 42.3 percent of all rare earth exports over the period. The United States was the second-largest exporter, supplying roughly 9.3 percent of the global total. Malaysia (9.1 percent), Austria (9.0 percent), and Japan (7.1 percent) rounded out the top five.Among these major economies, only Japan has achieved some success at reducing reliance on China. From 2008 to 2018, the share of Japanese rare earth imports from China fell from 91.3 percent to 58 percent. As of 2018, the US still imported 80.5 percent of its rare earths from China. The EU and South Korea have successfully diversified their imports of certain compounds, like cerium, but they remain almost completely reliant on China for imports of rare earth metals and alloys.2 For example, the EU imported 7,105.9 metric tons of cerium compounds in 2018, of which less than one-quarter came from China. However, nearly all (98.5 percent) of its imports of rare earth metals and alloys came from China.
[/While China maintains a commanding presence within the global rare earth industry, Beijing’s capacity to unilaterally disrupt supply chains is likely to be eroded in the coming years. A number of initiatives are underway that may prove successful at establishing new rare earth suppliers outside of China. Shifting market dynamics are likely to aid these efforts.

There are already signs that other players have started to chip away at China’s dominance in certain areas. Mining of raw rare earth materials outside of China has ramped up significantly in recent years as the US’ Mountain Pass mine, and other mines around the world, have increased their output. China’s share of global mining production has slipped as a result, from a high of 97.7 percent in 2010 to 62.9 percent in 2019 – the lowest point since 1995. China’s share of global rare earth reserves has likewise fallen from 50 percent to 36.7 percent over the same period.



Its a much longer article than what I can post here, but worth the full read for those interested in the REMs.
Mick




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nipper
post Posted: Jan 1 2021, 02:12 PM
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https://www.mining.com/web/miners-praise-us...nds-rare-earth/


Trump signs RE bill. ...



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 6 2020, 09:29 AM
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A Canadian view: (= caution. No control of prices)


https://financialpost-com.cdn.ampproject.or...From%20%251%24s



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 1 2020, 06:53 AM
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. double post



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Dec 1 2020, 06:53 AM
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But the task of getting next stage development (= funding) is what holds back confident investment in most of the candidates

https://stockhead-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org...-rare-earths%2F



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 29 2020, 10:18 AM
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Rare earths emerging as pick of the proxies for EV exposure

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/rare-earths-emerging-as-pick-of-the-proxies-for-ev-exposure
QUOTE
.... the interest here is how the value surge for Tesla is being taken as an endorsement of the EV/renewables revolution in a world increasingly moving towards decarbonisation and what that means for the materials needed to make it happen.

Materials for the lithium ion batteries that underpin the revolution (lithium, nickel, graphite, zinc and others) have not exactly taken off just yet. But the share prices of ASX listed producers/explorers of the requited materials have been on the march since September, probably due to confirmation of a strong rebound in EV sales growth post the worst of COVID19 and now the Tesla S&P factor. The chemistry of the preferred Li ion batteries will change over time. So there is some risk in the long-term around picking battery materials to play the EV/renewables thematic.

That is not the case with the rare earths that go into the permanent motors of EVs and windmills, and just about every other new world economy application. No matter the battery chemistry or who is building the EVs and windmills, the motors require the light rare earths of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) to ensure their reliability.

Exposure to rare earths as a way to have exposure to the EV/renewable revolution was a theme UBS dived into during the week in a note on ASX listed Lynas (LYC), the second biggest rare earths producer outside of China", which has an 80% grip on the market. "Lynas is positively exposed to a step-change in demand from EVs as each EV contains about 1-2kg of NdPr, mostly in the motor, UBS said. (It has a $4.05 price target on Lynas compared with Thursday's market price $3.69 for a $3.3b market cap).


UBS reckons annual EV sales could grow from about two million now to 36 million by 2030. As a result, it forecasts that NdPr demand will triple from 30,000tpa to 90,000tpa by 2030. (But) we do not think the market has created sufficient incentives for supply growth to triple by 2030. We estimate that an incentive price for NdPr is $US$60/kg. Prices have been below this level for most of the past 9 years, averaging ~US$41/kg, UBS says.

It believes that NdPr prices will need to lift from $US50/kg now to a peak of US$100/kg by 2024 before reverting to $US60/kg in the long term. From that it can be taken that the rare earths space is in line for some price excitement in coming years on demand fundamentals alone.Then there is the strategic appeal of rare earths in a world increasingly worried about Chinese grip on the supply chain. The potential for supply shocks, and NdPr got to $US280/kg in 2011 when China pulled supplies from Japan over a territorial dispute, is ever present.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 9 2020, 06:19 PM
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http://mgl.io/69eT0

.
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Critical Minerals.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 28 2020, 12:48 PM
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thanks to Beaches at ASF:

https://smallcaps.com.au/china-sends-warnin...ff-rare-earths/




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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